MNF Buccaneers vs Chiefs @8:15 EST

QB Baker Mayfield

The Buccaneers had to be depleted when Chris Godwin went down with that gruesome foot injury in a non competitive game late in the 4Q. Not only that but Mike Evans left the game with a hamstring injury earlier in that game. Baker will be without his two stud receivers this week as well but that didn’t seem to affect him much last week going 37/50 throwing for 330 yards with 3 TD’s and 2 INT’s in a 5 point loss to the Falcons. As we thought things couldn’t get worse they did as Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard are questionable coming into this game. Now with that being said this is going to be a tough task facing a Chiefs defense that allows the 9th LOWEST completion% the 12th FEWEST Pass Yds per game with a 33% pressure rate ranking middle of the pack. The Chiefs defensively throw about every coverage at you which makes it hard for a QB to read the defenses. They run Cover 1/2/3 at their highest rates and Mayfield is very good against these 3 coverages combined having a 72.5% completion% having 10 TD’s and 5 INT’s but here as of late this man has been a turnover machine having 3,2,2 INT’s L3 games. This Chiefs defense has had 1,3,0 INT’s L3 games. Don’t really know what to expect out of Mayfield without his main options but what I do know for certain is being 9 point underdogs he is going to have to take some risky chances.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions -145

RB Rachaad White

The Buccaneers were back to a 2 person slot last week as White played 39 snaps compared to Irving with 30. This Buccaneers offense is passing the ball at a 63.4% rate which ranks #7/32 and last week without Godwin and Evans they passed it 65.9% so I think it’s safe to say the Buccaneers are going to continue to do what they have been doing even without their 2 stud receivers. This matchup is brutal for the running backs in terms of rushing facing the Chiefs who have allowed just 3.53 YPC ranking #2/32 teams. White the L4 weeks has ran out of Man Concept 46.15% of the time and that is not good as the Chiefs allow 3.05 YPC. As 9 point underdogs they could completely go away from running the ball if this gets out of hand early. Now over the L4 weeks Baker Mayfield is targeting his backfield receivers 19.65% of the time. In his first 4 weeks that number was 13.90%. The Chiefs allow 26 receiving yards per game to backfield receivers which ranks #10/32 teams. Over the L2 weeks White has ran 21,27 routes! I look for White to get a couple receptions and clear this low line

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (+112)
‘O’ 21.5 Rec Yds (-110)

RB Bucky Irving

Im going to make this one short and sweat. Obviously you know how I feel about the rushing attack today with these Buccaneers players so stay away from that. Irving though is another receiver who has been good but his routes ran is a concern for me. I’m not touching anything on Bucky today

Suggested Pick
Pass

WR Jalen McMillan

He is questionable coming into this one but I think he plays. Over the L2 weeks this man has seen 8 & 7 targets catching just 7/15. In his game last week without a full game if Evans and Godwin he saw a 15.0 average depth of target running 42 routes which was 1st on the team. As I said above the Chiefs really throw about everything at you but one thing they do consistently is show that two-high safety/ middle of field open rate 57.2% of the time ranking #4/32 teams. Against that last week McMillon ran 21 routes getting targeted just 3x catching 2 for 18 yards. McMillon ran 30/42 routes out of the wideout spot and the Chiefs have allowed the 2nd FEWEST Rec Yds per game to wideout receivers (66.3) with just a 50% catch rate which is the 2nd LOWEST. McMillon has seen a ton of targets but he is not executing on his chances and I don’t expect that to change against a very good Chiefs defense. On balls thrown for 10+ yards downfield the Chiefs have allowed just 11/36 targets to be caught (30.6%) #1/32!

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions -110
‘U’ 40.5 Rec Yds -115

TE Cade Otton

This is a great spot for Cade Otton. Without Evans and Godwin last week this man racked up 9 receptions for 81 yards and 2 TD’s. Now today he will be facing the Chiefs who are most vulnerable to TE’s. Otton last week ran 18/38 routes (47.3%)out on the inline and the Chiefs have allowed 25 reception which is the 11th MOST to inline receivers allowing a ridiculous 2.12 YPRR. 12/38 routes (31.5%)  being out of the slot and the Chiefs have allowed 1.96 YPRR to slot receivers which is the 9th HIGHEST! The Chiefs are really good against Backfield receivers and are even better against Wideout receivers which literally leaves a ton of opportunities for Otton. The Buccaneers will continue to throw this man’s way

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -155
50+ Rec Yds -125
70+ (+170)
80+ (+260)
80+/1+ TD (+525)

QB Patrick Mahomes

After Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay defense humiliated Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LIV, the Chiefs QB was able to exact revenge on the Buccaneers in 2022 with a 41-31 victory. He will now look to recapture some of that magic to jump start a season that has seen Mahomes throw 8 TD’s to 9 INT’s. He has been money on MNF, averaging 283 yards passing, 20 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns over 11 games, and now he will face the much maligned Buccaneers pass defense, which is just another area Todd Bowles has completely blown up this season. In fact, the Bucs have allowed 9 TD’s over the past 2 weeks alone. Tampa Bay plays zone-coverage at the highest rate in the league (81.6%), and the run Cover 3 and 4 on 61.1% of their snaps.Against these schemes, Mahomes has completed 72 of 100 passes for 733 yards. While this looks good from the outset, the Chiefs QB has also thrown just 1 TD to 4 INT. Turnovers on both sides of the field are going to halt drives tonight, thereby leading to a much lower scoring game than what people are expecting. Mahomes will get his fair share of yards tonight, but like Baker Mayfield, he only has one main weapon in the passing game in Travis Kelce. I also like his rushing yards in this game. The Bucs have a 31.5% pressure-rate, however I look for Todd Bowles to blitz much less in this game and force Mahomes to beat him with the pass. That said, 18.5 yards is still too low. He’s faced Bowles on 2 occasions already as DC for Tampa, and he ran for 35 and 33 yards in those 2 games. All it will take is one or two chunks to get that today.

Suggested Pick
Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)
Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt will be an interesting player to target tonight for Kansas City. Despite the number of rushing yards the Buccaneers defense has allowed this season out of the backfield, Tampa Bay has been nothing short of dominant in the first quarter of the games in ’24. Behind DT Vita Vea, here are the Bucs rushing totals allowed to opposing RB’s in the 1st quarter this year: Brian Robinson (5 yds), David Montgomery (7 yds), Javonte Williams (5 yds), Saquon Barkley (0 yds), Bijan Robinson (12 yds), Alvin Kamara (9 yds), Derrick Henry (3 yds) and Bijan Robinson (1 yd). That’s a total of only 42 yards allowed in the first quarter for the entire season to each team’s primary RB. Kareem Hunt is averaging just 3.7 YPC, and his total of 13.5 yards hasn’t been eclipsed by any RB this year in the 1st quarter, and with Tampa Bay’s defensive line coming in healthy, there’s no reason to think Hunt will reach this mark. Another prop I like for Kareem Hunt tonight are his receiving yards. The Bucs are the heaviest zone defensive team in the entire league, and they allow the 3rd most receptions and 4th most receiving yards to opposing RB’s. In fact 8 of 8 lead running backs vs TB have gone over 11.5 yards this season.

Suggested Pick
Under 13.5 1Q Rushing Yards (-110)
Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Xavier Worthy

Xavier Worthy caught 4 of his 8 targets last week for 37 yards and a TD. Despite being without Rashee Rice, the Chiefs WR is averaging just over 33.0 receiving YPG. He will be going up against a Tampa Bay defense that has been shredded by opposing WR’s, and when facing Cover 3 and 4 defenses he’s caught 8 of 14 total targets (57.1% CMP) for 106 yards and 1 TD. He will line up opposite rookie corner, Tyrek Funderburke who has been targeted 12 times this season, allowing 11 receptions for 146 yards. In 3 starts he’s allowed yardage totals of 42, 19 and 85. Considering Worthy’s speed, I think over 37.5 yards is very attainable for the Kansas City wideout tonight.

Suggested Pick
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards -125

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Tampa Bay has already made it clear they will put their emphasis on DeAndre Hopkins tonight. Hopkins has now had the opportunity to work with Mahomes on the offense, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Albeit a small sample size, Hopkins has caught 10 of 12 balls for 121 yards against Cover 3 and 4 defenses. He will face Zyon McCollum tonight, who has allowed only 17 catches, while being targeted 36 times in ’24, and he’s only been targeted 4x in his L3 games. Hopkins is only expected to see a 50% snap share tonight, however Andy Reid has said on multiple occasions this week that his role will continue to grow, and everyone will see why they traded for him. Even in limited action, it’s hard to fade any WR vs this Bucs secondary.

Suggested Pick
Over 43.5 Receiving Yards -105

TE Travis Kelce

This game is going to be a TE dominated game, and like Cade Otton, I’m expecting a big effort from Travis Kelce tonight. The Chiefs tight end has hauled in 19 of 22 targets for 149 yards vs Cover 3 and 4 defensive schemes. Tampa Bay has consistently been hammered by TE’s all year, and on multiple occasions this has been due to poor communication. Since the injury to Rashee Rice, Kelce has a target share of 29.5%, and when Mahomes is pressured this skyrockets to 38.5%. The Buccaneers have allowed an 80% CR to the TE position (5th worst in NFL) this year, and over just the L5 weeks they have been torched by Dallas Goedert (7-62), Kyle Pitts 2x (7-88 and 4-91-2TD) and Mark Andrews (4-41-2TD). Kelce is an absolute MUST play tonight for KC!!

Suggested Pick
Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
ALT Receiving Yards
80+ (+196)
90+ (+270)
100+ (+390)
Over 5.5 Receptions (-138)
ALT Receptions
7+ (+130)
8+ (+210)
9+ (+350)
Anytime TD (+120)

This Chiefs defense is going to give Tampa Bay issues all night and I expect the Chiefs offense to be better especially against this very bad Buccaneers defense. I’m never a fan of laying huge points even with the Chiefs as they always seem to play it close with teams they are way better than but this just feels like a spot they blow the doors off the Buccaneers in Primetime.

Best Bets (Chiefs -9.5 -110)
Lean (44.5 -110) 
Chiefs 30 Buccaneers 17