QB Caleb Williams
Since Thomas Brown took over at Bears OC, Caleb Williams has looked like an entirely different QB. He has thrown for 340 and 231 yards in his past two games, and had by far his best QBR outputs of the year at 83.9 and 77.4. Against the Lions, he will see a lot of man coverage. The Lions line up in man on 43.8% of their defensive snaps, which is the most in the league. Williams has definitely had his share of struggles vs man coverage, having just a 50.0% completion percentage against it (29 out 35 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks), as well as averaging only 5.14 yards per attempt against man, which ranks 32nd out 35 QBs. The Lions defense has been much improved in terms of production as well efficiency. They have allowed only a 61.6% completion percentage against, which is the 4th lowest opponent percentage against in the NFL. For a guy who has struggled to complete passes against man, this is not great news. The Lions do funnel to force teams to pass against them often, however. This, combined with the fact that they are consistently in positive game scripts has forced them to allow the 3rd most pass attempts per game at 36.0. While the efficiency from Williams remains a question against an entirely different looking defense than the Packers and Vikings defenses he has just seen (both teams rank in the top 11 in zone defense %), I do think the Bears will be forced to test their luck often with Caleb.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 32.5 Pass Attempts (-130)

RB D’Andre Swift

Swift has seen a slight decrease in action since Thomas Brown took over as OC, with 14 and 13 rush attempts in games where he only saw 41% and 59% of the team’s rush share. Still, Swift remains a key part of the Bears offense and figures to once again get at least a decent amount of work in this matchup against Detroit. Unfortunately for Swift, this is not really an ideal matchup. The Lions rush defense has taken a bit of a hit since the injury to Aidan Hutchinson, but still rank 8th in the NFL with a 47.5 stuff rate. They are allowing 3.71 YPC, which is the 13th lowest in the NFL. Unfortunately for Swift, he himself has been extremely inefficient this season, as he has averaged only 3.96 yards per carry, which 38th out of 54 RBs with at least 50 carries on the year. The Lions are frequently in man coverage, and Swift is just middle of the road against man in terms of efficiency with a 4.41 YPC against it. Given the rush share decline plus a more negative game script likely incoming. This screams as a spot for an under.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 47.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

WR DJ Moore

DJ Moore has been a key part of the Bears’ offensive turnaround the past 2 weeks. New OC Thomas Moore has shown his willingness to simply get his playmakers the ball, and this has resulted in many designed screens and short throws to get Moore the ball in space. Overall, he is running a route on 92.7% of the team’s dropbacks. On the year he is only being targeted on 21.2% of those routes. Over the last 2 games, Moore has an astonishingly low aDOT of only 1.9, but actually leads the team in yards per route run at 1.91 due to the damage he has done after the catch, with 143 total YAC the past 2 games alone. Unfortunately for Moore, he runs into a buzzsaw for this gameplan, with a Lions secondary that has been superb in tackling in space, giving him the 2nd fewest YAC per reception at 4.79. Moore was able to break off a 37 yard catch and run against the Vikings, but the gameplan may have to be adjusted against the Lions. With a 1.8 aDOT, I see this longest reception line as far too high.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 21.5 Longest Reception (-110)

WR Keenan Allen

Allen was quiet in Brown’s first game as the Bears’ OC against the Packers, but was absolutely picked on in the Bears last game against the Vikings, getting 15 targets and 9 receptions for 86 receiving yards last week. On the season he is now the Bears’ leader in target share at 23.2, although the matchup has certainly dictated the amount of action he gets. Against the man-heavy Detroit defense, he should see a lot of targets. He leads the team by a wide margin in target rates vs man coverage, at 31.6%. The next closest is Moore at 18.6%. This was evident in the matchup with Detroit last year. Although Detroit’s defense has been better overall against the pass, he was able to rack up 175 yards on 14 targets. The aDOT of 10.4 against man is above average, but he has thrived more so in the intermediate game. Combine that with the fact that it is tough to do much after the catch against the Bears and I prefer his receptions over yards here.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-150)

 

TE Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet has not necessarily been the most consistent option for the Bears this year, but his ability to block well and run sharp routes has all but guaranteed him a good amount of playing time in every game, as he has over an 80% dropback rate in 6 of the last 7 games. In the previous game vs the Vikings, he was able to get 10 targets and 7 reception for 64 yards. He also had a target share of 21.3%, so there is reason to believe that Kmet, along with other options in this Bears offense, are trending upwards. The issue here against the Lions is that the Lions simply do not give up much in the receiving game to the tight end position, allowing only 5.5 yards per target to TEs, which is the lowest mark in the NFL. Because of this, it is tough to say how exactly this matchup will pan out with these mixed signals.

Suggested Play:
None

QB Jared Goff
Jared Goff has been one of the keys to cementing the Lions as probably the Super Bowl favorite as we head into Thanksgiving weekend. In the conversations for league MVP, Goff has the league’s 2nd highest YPA at 9.02. Ahead of Goff is only Malik Willis, who has only appeared in 5 games and started in 2. Goff also has the 3rd highest completion % in the NFL at 72.9%, behind only Tua and Willis again who both have missed several or the majority of their games. Goff will get a matchup with the Bears team that will show a lot of zone concepts. Chicago is in zone defense on 74.1% of snaps, which is the 7th highest in the NFL. Specifically, the Bears line up in Cover 3 on 39.6% of their snaps, which ranks 5th in the NFL. This is not necessarily great news for Goff, as the majority of his success has come through his accuracy against man coverage. Still, Goff has been solid against Cover 3, with a 8.44 YPA that ranks 13th in the NFL (Goff has the league’s highest YPA against man). There have been several games this year where despite a great performance from Goff, he has been able to just coast with the lead and not finish with a very high passing yards total. As a 10.5 favorite and with not being the best matchup for Goff (although it is still good), I could certainly see being one of those games if they can get an early lead.

Suggested Play:
Pass

RB Jahmyr Gibbs 

Between Gibbs and David Montgomery, the Lions have a 2-headed monster at RB and can hurt opposing defenses in a variety of ways given the unique skillset they bring to the offense. In this spot, I like Gibbs to get the bulk of action based on a matchup that should really favor him. Gibbs is the most explosive RB in the NFL and by a fairly wide margin. 11.0% of his carries are resulting in an explosive run. This is by far the highest number in the league, and for reference the 2nd closest player is Jordan Mason at only 7.9%. The Bears defense has really struggled with shifty and speedy RBs such as Gibbs and with RBs getting outside the hashes. Chicago is allowing 29.2% of their rush yards allowed to come on explosive runs, which is the 10th most in the NFL, and are also giving up 4.77 total yards per carry, which is the 6th most in the NFL. They also are allowing RBs to accelerate into space, which is what Gibbs excels at. The Bears are allowing 2.37 yards before contact per attempt, which is the 2nd most of any team in the NFL. Gibbs on the other hand is averaging 3.45 yards before contact per attempt, which ranks 2nd among NFL RBs. This is an ideal spot for Gibbs to run wild in.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 71.5 Rush Yards (-120)
‘O’ 1.5 TDs (+330)

WR Amon Ra St-Brown

In some regards, St. Brown has had somewhat of a disappointing year. His yardage numbers may not be what was expected of him before the season, as he has been held to 62 yards or less in 6 out of 10 games this year with Detroit. Despite that, he has been one of the league’s premier touchdown scoring WRs, and just an incredible 8 game TD streak snapped last week vs Indy. He also remains the Lions’ number one option at WR despite having to share the ball a bit more, as he has a 26.7% target share, which leads the team. Perhaps the primary change in St. Browns role is with the emergence of Jameson Williams and how he has become the bonafide deep threat of this offense, with a 14.7 aDOT in comparison to 7.9 for St. Brown. Against zone defense, St. Brown has still feasted, and luckily for him he will see the defense in the Bears that line up in zone at the 7th highest rate in the NFL, at 74.1%. Against zone coverage, St. Brown is averaging 2.57 yards per route run, which leads the team by a wide margin. 

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (+105)

 

RB David Montgomery

Montgomery left last week's game early with a shoulder injury, but not after a big performance against the Colts. The Lions share the ball well between Montgomery and fellow RB Jahmyr Gibbs, and this pans out well against a Bears defense that has been decimated on the ground, particularly in the red zone. RBs have scored 50% of the TDs opponents have had against the Bears this year, which ranks tied for the 4th most in the league. Montgomery has been the player that the Lions look to in short yardage and goal line situations, with 41 red zone touches on the year as well as 10 goal line touches, this is good for the 7th most among all RBs in the NFL. While I do see this overall being a Gibbs game, partially due to matchup and partially due to the health status of Montgomery on a short week, Montgomery certainly is a threat to finish a drive or two for the Lions against his former team.

Suggested Play:
'O' 0.5 TDs (-159)

WR Jameson Williams

While St. Brown has been the most consistent Lions WR on a down to down basis. The explosiveness from the Lions WR corps has come by way of the emergence of Jameson Williams in his second full year in the league. Williams has an aDOT of 14.7 yards, which is not only the highest on the team, but is one of the highest in the NFL. The Bears certainly have been tested down the field defensively as well, having a 8.8 aDOT allowed. With that in mind, they have done a solid job defending those passes when targeted, giving up only 8.8% of them to be completed, which is above average. In the past 2 games they have gotten burned by similar profiled WRs in Jordan Addison and Christian Watson, but when looking at the bigger picture this is clearly a better matchup for St. Brown

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Sam Laporta

It has not been nearly the type of year from LaPorta that many expected before the season. In the first 6 games of the year, LaPorta did not eclipse a target share of over 10% even one time. With that being said, it was at a season high 18.2% last week against the Colts, although the Colts are a matchup that tight ends have feasted against all season long. LaPorta has been consistent, with a 67.0% route run rate, and also has seen the 3rd highest yards per route run on the team at 1.82. While the Bears have put their defensive emphasis on stopping top WRs, this in turn has led to some holes against TEs, allowing the 23rd most yards per game against the position in the NFL at 58.2 yards per game while in many zone concepts. I would say this overall is a place where LaPorta could be at a solid buy low point. 

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 36.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

I do think that we could see an extension of the success the Bears offense have had as of late into this Thanksgiving matchup, but at the same time we must remember that the Bears still did lose the previous two games, and with not much left to play for the motivation of the team as well as their will start to come into question. With new beginnings seemingly on the horizon in Chicago, I do think they will come out and play with precision and hang with the Lions offense for a while. With that being said, the Lions have been the most dominant team in the league this season and I do not see the Bears having any answer defensively for a Lions offense that is as versatile as any team in the league. The Lions have blown out several teams at home this year, and I would not expect much difference here after the second half.

 

Best Bet: Lions -9.5 -125
Lean: Over 48.5 -110
Lions 37 Bears 20

QB Tommy DeVito

DeVito came away last week with a forearm injury and is not 100% to play Thursday, according to coach Daboll. If that’s the case, Drew Lock will start, who in my opinion elevates the entire offense. In this analysis, we will assume DeVito ends up playing. In his first start of the season, he completed 21 passes on 31 attempts, throwing for 189 passing yards. It was ugly early, as he only had 31 passing yards in the 1^st half, a lot of his production came in garbage time. He’ll face a Cowboys defense allowing the 12^th most passing yards and the 11^th most passing TDs per game. The Cowboys force the 9^th highest pressure rate over expected. When pressured in his first game, he averaged 3.92 YPA and had a QB rating of 67 compared to his overall 6.1 YPA and 83.9 QB rating. The Cowboys play single-high at a 55.5% frequency and run zone 67.9% of the time. Against single-high, DeVito averages 5.4 YPA and has a QB rating of 70.4, negative splits. Against zone, he averaged 5.8 YPA and had a QB rating of 86.3. This is a small 1 game sample size, so I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on these splits. Wouldn’t be surprised if he struggles and gets benched if he does end up starting.

Suggested Pick
“U” 175.5 Pass Yds (-114)

 

RB Tyrone Tracy

Since taking over the lead back role in week 5, Tracy averages 79.7 rushing yards per game, 5.37 YPC and has 3 rushing TDs. He’ll face a Cowboys rush defense that is allowing the 5^th most yards per carry (4.83) and the 2^nd most rushing yards per game (150.5). It’s worth noting that Tracy was benched for a portion of last game due to a fumble and saw his slowest snap share since week 5 at 41%. Prior to that, his lowest snap share was 57%. The Cowboys force the 4^th highest rush rate over expected, so as long as this one remains close and he takes care of the football, I’d expect a lot of rush volume for Tracy. The Cowboys allow the 5^th highest explosive run rate in the league (6.4%). Tracy has a 6.9% explosive run rate, 6^th highest in the NFL amongst RBs with 100+ attempts. The Cowboys also allow the 8^th most receiving yards to opposing RBs. Tracy is averaging 14.9 receiving yards per game since he took over week 5, but these numbers are slightly skewed with 2 games of 57 and 28 receiving yards with the rest under 10 yards.

Suggested Pick
“O” 15.5 Longest Rush (-105)
“O” 64.5 Rush Yds (-115)
“O” 14.5 Rush Att (+108)
80+ Rush Yds (+186)
90+ Rush Yds (+270)
100+ Rush Yds (+400)

WR Malik Nabers

Nabers is averaging 74.6 receiving yards per game, 2.10 YPRR and has been targeted on 32% of his routes. He has an elite 1^st-read rate of 42.9%. The Cowboys allow the 12^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. They run single-high 55.5% of the time and allow 0.54 fantasy points per drop back while in this scheme (3^rd most). Nabers averages 2.44 YPRR, commands a 46.5% 1^st-read rate and has been targeted on 36% of his routes against this coverage. In DeVito’s 1^st start, Nabers was not targeted in the 1^st half. He ended up being targeted 9 times and produced 64 yards in the 2^nd half. Nabers voiced his frustration on the lack of targets early in the game and Daboll made it an emphasis that they must get him the ball early and often. Nabers has ran 72.8% of his routes from out wide. The Cowboys are allowing the 4^th highest target share (44.1%) and the 4^th most YPRR (2.24) to wide alignment. Nabers went off for 115 receiving yards last time he played the Cowboys. If DeVito starts, I like his receiving lines. If Lock starts, I love his receiving lines.

Suggested Pick
60+ Rec Yds (-135)
70+ Rec Yds (+120)
80+ Rec Yds (+190)
90+ Rec Yds (+280)
100+ Rec Yds (+400)

 

WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale is averaging 40.1 receiving yards per game, 1.26 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 25.5%. The Cowboys allow the 12^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. They run single-high 55.5% of the time and allow 0.54 fantasy points per drop back while in this scheme (3^rd most). Robinson averages 1.32 YPRR, commands a 1^st-read rate of 25.8% and has been targeted on 26% of his routes against this coverage. Wan’Dale has lined up in the slot on 79.1% of his routes. The Cowboys are allowing the 3^rd lowest target share (27.8%) but the 4^th most YPRR (2.08) against the slot. In DeVito’s 1^st start, Wan’Dale was targeted 5 times and caught all 5 receptions for 47 yards. He was utilized as the short yardage guy, with an aDOT of 5.8 compared to Nabers’ 9.1 last week.

Suggested Pick
“O” 31.5 Rec Yds (-110)

 

TE Theo Johnson

Since week 5, Theo is averaging 34.3 receiving yards per game, 1.24 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. He has run a route on 70% of his team’s drop backs. He’s had 3 straight games of 6 targets. He’ll face a Cowboys defense allowing the 9^th fewest receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. The Cowboys force the 9^th highest pressure rate over expected. They play single-high at a 55.5% frequency and run zone 67.9% of the time. Theo averages 0.83 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes against the blitz since week 5. Against single-high, since week 5 he averages 0.79 YPRR and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. 50.5% of Theo’s routes have come from the slot and 40.2% have come from inline. The Cowboys allow the 3^rd lowest target share to the slot (27.8%) and the 8^th highest target share to inline (12.9%). His current lines are 25.5 receiving yards and 2.5 receptions. He’s over both of these lines in 6 of L7 games.

Suggested Pick
“O” 25.5 Rec Yds (-113)
“O” 2.5 Rec (-115)

QB Cooper Rush

After throwing for 45 yards in his first start against the Eagles, Cooper Rush has thrown for 354 and 247 passing yards against the Texans and Commanders. Rush averages 5.46 YPA and has a QB rating of 79.1. He’ll face a Giants defense allowing the 7^th fewest passing yards per game (214.91). The Giants defense has the 4^th highest pressure rate over expected and the 10^th highest blitz rate (30.4%). Rush averages 4.28 YPA and has a 73.3 QB rating when pressured, compared to 5.69 YPA and an 80.2 QB rating in a clean pocket. The Giants are playing the 4^th highest rate of single-high (62.7%). Against single-high, Cooper has negative splits averaging 4.68 YPA and a QB rating of 56.2. The Giants also force the lowest aDOT in the NFL (6.7), yet still allow the 5^th most passing yards per game on targets 20+ yards down field. Low volume, but they have allowed an insane 77.8% completion percentage on these throws, more than 20% higher than any other defense.

Suggested Pick
“O” 31.5 Longest Pass (-110)
“O” 200.5 Pass Yds (-115)

 

RB Rico Dowdle

Dowdle is averaging 58.8 rushing yards per game, on 4.36 YPC. He’ll face a Giants defense that is allowing the most YPC (5.23) and the 3^rd most rushing yards per game (147.9). They have been susceptible to explosive runs, with 8% attempts against them going for 15+ yards, highest rate in the league. However, out of his 112 carries on the season, Dowdle has only 2 rushes of over 15 yards. Dowdle is averaging 4.80 YPC in man/gap concepts, which accounts for 40.2% of his attempts. That compares to 3.92 YPC on 58% of his attempts in zone concepts. The Giants have similar splits, allow 5.28 YPC against man/gap concepts and 4.67 YPC against zone run concepts. Dowdle is also averaging 18.4 receiving yards per game. The Giants allow the 6^th most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs. Dowdle has only ran a route on 30.6% of the Cowboys drop backs, so despite the favorable receiving matchup, opportunities may be limited for him to produce.

Suggested Pick
“O” 65.5 Rush Yds (-115)

 

WR CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee is averaging 76.5 receiving yards per game, 2.14 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 32.3%. The Giants are allowing the 13^th fewest receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. The Giants defense has the 4^th highest pressure rate over expected and the 10^th highest blitz rate (30.4%). Against the blitz, CeeDee averages 3.53 YPRR, 34% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 40.3%. The Giants play single-high at the 4^th highest rate in the league (62.7%). Against single-high, Lamb averages 2.58 YPRR, 31% TPRR, and a 1^st-read rate of 34.9%. Looking at pre-snap alignment, CeeDee has lined up in the slot on 51.7% of his routes and out wide on 46.3% of his routes. The Giants allow the 5^th fewest receiving yards per game to the slot, and the 15^th fewest receiving yards per game to out wide. In CeeDee’s 3 games with Rush, he has an aDOT of 5.7, lowest on the team out of the starters. The Giants allow the lowest aDOT in the NFL (6.7), CeeDee may get peppered with targets.

Suggested Pick
“O” 6.5 Rec (+108)
8+ Rec (+178)
Anytime TD (+180)

 

WR Jalen Tolbert

Tolbert is averaging 37.3 receiving yards per game, 1.04 YPRR and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 13.9%. The Giants are allowing the 13^th fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs. Their defense has the 4^th highest pressure rate over expected and the 10^th highest blitz rate (30.4%). Against the blitz, Tolbert averages 0.95 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 14.9% 1^st-read rate. The Giants play single-high at the 4^th highest rate in the league (62.7%). Against single-high, Jalen averages 0.92 YPRR and 13% TPRR. The Giants also force the lowest aDOT in the NFL (6.7), yet still allow the 5^th most passing yards per game on targets 20+ yards down field. Low volume, but they have allowed an insane 77.8% completion percentage on these throws, more than 20% higher than any other defense. Tolbert is tied with CeeDee in receiving on targets 20+ yards down field. This may be a matchup to target longest reception.

Suggested Pick
Line not up but lean “O” longest reception

 

TE Luke Schoonmaker

Ferguson has yet to practice this week and he’s being seen as a longshot to play on Thanksgiving. Schoonmaker should get the start, and when he’s seen 40% snap share, he’s had weeks of 43, 56 and 55 receiving yards. On the season, he’s averaging 1.50 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He’ll face a Giants defense that has shut down opposing TEs, allowing the 3^rd fewest receiving yards to the position (35.27 YPG). The Giants play single-high at the 4^th highest rate in the league (62.7%). Against single-high, Luke averages 1.55 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. The Giants defense has the 4^th highest pressure rate over expected and the 10^th highest blitz rate (30.4%). Against the blitz, Schoonmaker is averaging 1.15 YPRR and has been targeted on only 8% of his routes. Despite his strong production when given the playing time, he faces a tough matchup against the Giants.

Suggested Pick
Line not up pending Ferguson news but lean under

Despite two backup QBs, both defenses have struggled. Rush was able to put 34 points in a win against the Commanders last week. I think they can continue that momentum and put up points on Thanksgiving. We should see a heavy dose of each of their respective star receivers, Malik Nabers and CeeDee Lamb. Both teams have enough firepower to get over this low line. I’ll take Dallas with the points as they have picked up some momentum beating a talented Commanders team last week.

Best Bet (Over 37.5 -110)
Lean (Dallas -2.5 -145)
Cowboys 24 Giants 20

 

QB Tua Tagovailoa

The matchup between Tua Tagovailoa and the Green Bay Packers' defense offers an intriguing battle of strengths. Tua has been electric in recent weeks, posting 605 yards, 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions in his last two games, looking like an MVP-caliber QB. His league-leading 73.3% completion rate and proficiency against zone coverage (99.6 passer rating) make him a formidable opponent for Green Bay’s zone-heavy defense (73.1% zone rate, 8th highest in the NFL). However, the Packers' secondary, ranked 6th in coverage by PFF, excels at limiting passing production, allowing the 11th fewest passing yards per game (223.6) and forcing the second-highest turnover-worthy throw rate (4.7%). They also boast 11 interceptions this season, which could spell trouble for Tua, as his performance against zone defenses includes a notable 4 interceptions. Green Bay’s Achilles' heel is their pass rush, ranked 24th by PFF. If the Packers cannot generate consistent pressure, Tua could exploit their defense with his quick reads and accurate passing. This game may hinge on whether Green Bay’s opportunistic secondary can force turnovers or if Tua’s recent hot streak continues.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing TD’s +122
‘O’ 0.5 Interception -120

 

RB De’Von Achane

De'Von Achane faces a Green Bay defense that has been inconsistent against running backs. The Packers allow a middling 92.7 rushing yards per game (16th most) and only 4.28 yards per carry (24th), but allow the 6th highest explosive run rate (6.2%). Achane's speed and big-play ability make him a dangerous matchup, especially against a defense prone to allowing chunk plays. However, Achane's high failure rate (25% of runs gaining no yardage) could make him vulnerable to Green Bay’s solid stuff rate (3rd highest at 48.9%). As a receiver, Achane is well-positioned to exploit Green Bay’s struggles against running backs in the passing game, as they allow the 9th most receiving yards (37.9) and 15th most receptions (4.27) per game. Achane's consistent usage in the passing game - 4+ targets in each of the last five games and seven red-zone targets over that span - could provide a key edge, especially if Miami schemes to isolate him in space. Achane’s big-play ability and versatility make him a dynamic threat, but success will depend on whether Miami can create opportunities for him while minimizing his inefficiency on early downs.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ Longest Rush of 14.5 Yards -120
‘O’ 30.5 Receiving Yards -110
Anytime Touchdown Scorer -108

RB Jaylen Wright

With Mostert now taking a back seat to both Achane and Wright, Wright has some appeal. Last week Wright rushed 7 times for 28 yards, but did lose a fumble. He’s still only getting 5-7 rushing attempts per game and only 2 total targets. With a solid GB run defense in a game where they may have a negative game script, he’s a pass for me.

Suggested Picks
PASS

 

WR Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill faces a tough challenge against a Green Bay defense that has limited wide receivers to just 128.3 receiving yards per game (5th fewest), 10.5 receptions (7th fewest), and 0.82 touchdowns (12th fewest). While Green Bay allows a middling aDOT (15th highest at 8.2) and struggles with yards after catch (12th highest YAC/rec), Hill’s ability to capitalize on this has been surprisingly muted this season, as his 4.2 YAC/rec ranks just 5th on his own team. Despite his underwhelming averages this season (6.7 targets, 4.5 receptions, 52 yards per game), Hill remains Miami’s primary weapon with a team-leading 19.9% target share and 35.9% air yards share. However, Miami’s emphasis on a quicker passing game and Hill’s lingering wrist injury could further cap his upside in this matchup. While Hill has the potential to break out any week, this game may not be the ideal setup against a disciplined secondary. Not having to deal with Jaire Alexander, GB’s top corner, could help though.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 5.5 Receptions -155

WR Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle heads into the matchup against Green Bay with momentum, fresh off an 8-catch, 144-yard, 1-touchdown performance against New England. With 6+ targets in two of his last three games, Waddle’s 15.7% target share and efficient 73.2% catch rate make him a reliable option in Miami’s offense. Green Bay’s defense allows the 5th fewest receiving yards to WRs (128.3 per game) and the 7th fewest receptions (10.5), but they struggle with yards after catch (12th highest YAC/reception). This plays to Waddle’s strengths, as he’s been more effective after the catch than Tyreek Hill, averaging 1.61 YAC/rec compared to Hill’s 0.88. Waddle’s ability to create yardage in space makes him a strong candidate to exploit this defense, potentially making him Miami’s top receiver in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions -106
‘O’ 43.5 Receiving Yards -110

 

TE Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith has quietly emerged as a key weapon in Miami's offense, boasting the second-highest target share (17.4%) and excelling after the catch with 6.5 YAC per reception—better than both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. His role has expanded significantly, with his snap share increasing from 40% early in the season to over 65% in most of the last five games, solidifying his importance. Green Bay's defense is vulnerable against tight ends, allowing the 12th most receptions (5.45) and receiving yards (57.5) per game, along with four touchdowns on the year. The Packers’ heavy reliance on zone coverage plays into Smith’s strengths, as he leads the team in target share (19.3%) and yardage percentage (25.7%) against zone while posting an elite 3.03 yards per route run and an 84.7% catch rate. With his efficiency and consistent involvement, Smith is well-positioned to exploit Green Bay’s defense, making him a strong option in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -125
‘O’ 44.5 Receiving Yards -110
Touchdown Scorer +250

 

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love faces a Miami defense that has been stingy in key areas, allowing the 6th fewest passing yards per game (211.6), 7th fewest passing touchdowns (1.0), and 14th fewest completions (20.5). Despite middling PFF rankings in coverage (20th) and pass rush (19th), Miami has been effective at limiting big plays, but have not been forcing turnovers -  the 3rd lowest turnover-worthy throw rate (1.1%). Love’s performances have been inconsistent, with two games over 260 passing yards and two under 200 in his last five. While he had a five-game streak with 2+ touchdowns earlier this season, he's only hit that mark once in the last four games. His completion numbers also swing wildly, with four games of 15 or fewer and three games with 22+ in his last seven outings. As a rusher, Love has only cleared his rushing mark once in the last five games. In fact, in those five games he’s had one or no rushing attempts in 3 of them. Miami’s zone-heavy scheme (72.3%, primarily Cover 3) could challenge Love, as he has a modest 90.0 passer rating, 65.9% completion rate, and a concerning 9:9 TD-to-INT ratio against zone coverage. If Miami can maintain its disciplined approach, Love may struggle to produce consistent numbers in this matchup.

Suggest Picks
‘U’ 6.5 Rushing Yards -113

 

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs will have his hands full against a Miami run defense that has tightened up significantly since their Week 5 bye. Miami is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to running backs (10th best) during this stretch and a mere 0.75 yards before contact per attempt (4th best). They’ve also stifled notable backs like James Conner (20 carries for 53 yards), Kyren Williams (15 for 62), and Rhamondre Stevenson (8 for 13). On the season, Miami allows 89.8 rushing yards per game to RBs (20th most), a 4.34 YPC average (17th), and a modest 4.8% explosive run rate (19th). While their TD rate allowed to RBs (3.7%, 14th highest) offers some scoring potential, their 11th highest stuff rate (46.4%) could limit Jacobs’ efficiency. MIA is allowing the 11th fewest receptions and receiving yards to RB’s per game, as well. Jacobs has the workload to make an impact, but against a disciplined Miami front that has been tough on opposing rushers lately, his production could be capped unless Green Bay can establish early dominance in the trenches. With another good workload expected, we could see a nice game despite an unappetizing matchup.

Suggested Picks
100+ Rushing Yards +240
Touchdown Scorer -165

 

WR Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed has struggled to produce over the past two weeks, tallying just 23 and 26 receiving yards as Green Bay leaned on their ground game to control tempo. Reed's role in the offense primarily comes from the slot (79.9% of his snaps), which could provide opportunities against a Miami defense that allows a high 72.1% catch rate to slot receivers. However, Miami also minimizes big plays from the slot, ranking 26th in targets per route run (0.23) and allowing just 7.67 yards per target (20th) and 4.77 yards after the catch per reception (19th). For Reed to be a significant factor, the game script may need to favor Green Bay taking to the air—something that could happen if Miami builds an early lead and forces Jordan Love to pass. However, with Green Bay likely focusing on the run to control time of possession, Reed could once again see limited volume, similar to recent weeks. While Reed has flashed upside earlier this season, this matchup doesn’t set up well for consistent production unless the Packers deviate from their run-first strategy. Even in an uptick of passing opportunities, Miami’s disciplined defense against slot receivers might cap his ceiling.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions -145

 

WR Christian Watson

Christian Watson faces a tough challenge against Miami’s defense, which has been particularly effective at limiting outside receivers. Miami has allowed just 7.43 yards per target to outside WRs (22nd most), the 29th highest YAC/reception (3.56), and the league’s lowest aDOT (9.3), all of which make life difficult for a deep threat like Watson. Watson has struggled to find consistency this season, and he’s coming off a disappointing game with zero receptions on three targets. However, with Romeo Doubs out, Watson could see increased opportunities. As Green Bay’s primary deep threat, he leads the team with 18.2 air yards per target and draws 32.5% of his targets on throws 20+ yards downfield. Unfortunately, Miami’s disciplined coverage and ability to limit explosive plays suggest this isn’t a favorable setup for Watson to break out. Unless Green Bay finds creative ways to get him involved or exploit a specific mismatch, Watson’s big-play potential could be neutralized in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions -154
Longest Reception ‘U’ 22.5 -110

 

WR Dontayvion Wicks

Dontayvion Wicks could see a slight uptick in opportunities with Romeo Doubs out, but the matchup against Miami’s defense isn’t ideal. Wicks splits his time between the slot and outside, but neither position offers much upside against a defense that limits both yardage and efficiency. Miami allows just 7.43 yards per target to outside receivers and 7.67 to slot receivers, while ranking 29th in YAC/reception (3.56) and dead last in aDOT allowed (9.3), making it difficult for receivers to generate big plays. Wicks’ production has been limited, even when given extra chances earlier this season. In Week 9 against the Rams, with Doubs out, he managed just two receptions for 20 yards on seven targets. Last week, he caught one pass for 25 yards on two targets, highlighting his inconsistent role in the offense. As the likely third or fourth option in a potentially run-heavy game plan, Wicks may struggle to clear expectations. The matchup and likely lower passing volume make the under on his production a reasonable consideration.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 40.5 Receiving Yards -110

 

TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft faces a favorable matchup against a Miami defense that struggles against tight ends, allowing the 3rd most receptions (6.0) and 13th most yards (56.4) per game to the position. Kraft has been moderately involved in Green Bay’s passing game, with 3+ receptions in three of his last five games, though he has only surpassed this 3.5 reception mark three times all season. Where Kraft truly shines is in the red zone, boasting a 28% red-zone target share and six touchdowns on the year. While his recent target volume has dipped (2 and 1 targets in the last two weeks), Miami’s vulnerabilities against tight ends present an opportunity for Kraft to bounce back, especially in scoring situations. This could be a week where he re-emerges as a key part of the Packers' offense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions +136
Touchdown Scorer +230

If Green Bay has it’s way and is able to control the clock on the ground, it could be tough sledding for this MIA team. However, this MIA offense has really been clicking the past two week and I expect them to score some points on Thursday. MIA just holds a more dynamic offense. With that being said, these are both good defenses and it’s going to be cold with potential snow in Green Bay. I could see this game start slow and it’ll be a wildly different scenario for MIA, who is used to warmer weather. I’m trusting the defenses here and could see MIA winning outright in a lower scoring game.

Best Bet (Under 47.5 -108)
Lean (MIA Dolphins +3.5 -120)
Dolphins 24 Packers 20

QB Aidon O'Connell

Oh boy, this Raiders quarterback room has been a mess this season. With Garnder Minshew's season likely over, it opens up the opportunity for Aidan O'Connell to prove to his coaches what he's got for the rest of the season. This week, he's up against the intimidating 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs and their eighth-highest-graded pass defence. O'Connell has appeared in four games this season, only passing over 100 yards in one game, against the Pittsburgh Steelers, where he had 227. O'Connell faced this Chiefs defence twice last year, posting a stat line of 22/33 for 248 passing yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions in the first game but struggled with a 9/21 for just 62 passing yards with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Chiefs allow the 19th most passing yards (225.7) and the 16th most passing touchdowns (1.36) per game this season. Kansas City runs the 13th most zone coverage (76%), where they've done a great job at limiting opposing QBs passing yards, as they allow the third-fewest (133.5) passing yards per game and the 11th-fewest yards per attempt (7.2) against the coverage. The Raiders have a middle-of-the-pack pass-blocking line, who will have their handful against the Chiefs' sixth-highest graded pass rush. Which doesn't bode well for O'Connell, as he ranked 30th of 41 qualified QBs last season in yards per attempt (5.4) when under pressure with a 46.9 completion percentage. And it's not like he has the instincts to escape the pressure, as he rushed just 17 times last season for 11 rushing yards on 256 dropbacks last season. Chiefs have a tendency to play down to their opponents, allowing the likes of Bryce Young, Box Nix, and Gardner Minshew to go all-throw for over 200 passing yards against them. However, it's hard to back O'Connell, especially coming off a broken thumb on his throwing hand in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
1+ Interception (-155)

 

RB Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison missed last week with an injury but returned to practice as a limited participant. While he hasn't been outstanding this season, he's done enough to grab the starting job from Zamir White. Mattison ranks 37th in rushing yards this season (320) with three rushing TDs, but has been a weapon for this Raiders offence in the passing game. He's caught 25 of his 29 targets for 245 receiving yards and one receiving TD, ranking 16th among RBs in receiving yards around the league. And they might need to utilize that aspect of his game in this matchup as the Chiefs have the sixth-highest PFF-graded run defence, and that reflects in their stats this season. Kansas City allows just 53.4 rushing yards to RBs, the single lowest of all 32 teams. In the receiving game, they're a tad worse, allowing the fourth-fewest receiving yards (23.4) to RBs per game. This is where Mattison should succeed. The Raiders will likely be trailing in this game and needing to throw the ball to RBs as an extension of the run game. And sure, the Chiefs are good at limiting opposing RBs out of the backfield, but Mattison has recorded 20+ receiving yards in seven of his 10 games this season, averaging 24.5 per game. This includes their match earlier in Week 8 where he caught all five of his targets for 29 receiving yards. The Chiefs have limited RBs the last four weeks, not allowing an RB to go over 16 receiving yards, but those games have all been close, and with a 13.5-point spread, this game doesn't project to be the same. Mattison should be a nice safety net for O'Connell to use to get out of trouble, and with his 9.8 yards per reception –– 7th highest amongst RBs in the NFL –– he should be able to break a long reception.

Suggested Pick:
Alexander Mattison o13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers has stepped in admirably once Davante Adams was traded. Since the move, Meyers has played in four games as the WR1, Meyers has two 100+ receiving yard games, totalling 306 receiving yards on 28 receptions on his 39 targets. Now, that was mostly with Garnder Minshew. Unfortunately, we haven't seen a full game from Meyers and O'Connell this season, as Meyers was out for O'Connell's lone start. This Chiefs defence allows the sixth-fewest receiving yards (129.3) to WRs, but Meyers does most of his damage with volume, considering he has the 80th-highest yards per reception at 10.9 but averages 5.9 receptions per game with a Raiders WR low 8.9 aDoT. This matchup bodes well for Meyers in that regard, considering the Chiefs allow the sixth-fewest receiving yards (129.3) to WRs but 15th most receptions (11.6) to the position and the eighth-fewest aDoT (10.4). Meyers is spread all over the field, but he primarily lines up on the right side most (48%) and will likely draw the Trent McDuffie matchup. McDuffie has played well in the last four weeks, allowing a reception on 12 of his 20 targets but for just 114 receiving yards. However, when these two teams met in Week 6, Meyers did not register a catch against McDuffie. The Chiefs run the 13th most zone coverage; Meyers has an 82.9% catch rate against zone this season. While he might not get the yardage in this matchup, he should be heavily relied upon in short areas of the field.

Suggested Pick:
Jakobi Meyers o5.5 Receptions (+105)

 

TE Brock Bowers

Bowers is the true WR1 in this offence, leading the Raiders in receptions (74), receiving yards (744) and receiving TDs (3), registering 50+ receiving yards in 7/11 games this season. While playing TE, Bowers lines up in the slot 55% of his routes, which is great in this matchup considering the Chiefs allow the most receptions (104), the highest catch rate (78.8%), the second most receiving yards (1,079) and second highest yards per route run (2.08) in the entire NFL. The Chiefs allow the most receptions (6.3) and receiving yards (72.5) to TEs this season. When Bowers played against the Chiefs in Week 8, he had a down week by his standards, recording just five receptions for 58 receiving yards. I don't expect Bowers to be that quiet in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Brock Bowers o58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
70+ Receiving Yards (+155)
80+ Receiving Yards (+230)

QB Patrick Mahomes

Who would have thought the Chiefs would be 10-1, but Mahomes would be having one of his worst seasons in his career? He's averaging 243 passing yards per game –– lowest season average by nearly 20 yards –– but the highest completion percentage at 69.8. Now, this is probably due to his aDoT dipping down to 6.4, but this isn't the same gun-slinging Mahomes we're used to watching on Sunday. This week, he faces off against the Raiders defence, who're allowing the 21st most passing yards (224.1). However, they've had troubles keeping teams out of the end zone as they allow the fifth most passing TDs (1.8) per game. While, as a whole, it hasn't been a great season for the three-time Super Bowl Champ, it has been getting better lately. He has throw for 250+ passing yards in four of his last five games, including their earlier meeting against the Raiders where he threw for 262 passing yards, two passing TDs and one interception. The Raiders run are league average in terms of man/zone coverage, so there's no real edge to look into there for Mahomes. However, where we might see an advantage is that the Raiders average the sixth-fewest aDoT, which, perfectly plays into the skillset of how Mahomes is playing this season. Considering the Raiders struggles to keep the ball out of the endzone through the air and Mahomes throwing for 12 passing TDs through his last five games, he should be able to put up some points through the air in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Patrick Mahomes o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140)

 

RB Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco has been confirmed to make his return after a broken ankle has held him out since Week 2. Before his injury, Pacheco was on his way to a career year with a heavy workload. He had 34 carries for 135 rushing yards with one touchdown on the ground and seven receptions on eight targets for 54 receiving yards through the air. On the season, the Raiders have struggled to stop the run. Throughout the first six games of the season, they allowed 110.8 rushing yards to RBs per game. But they've had more success over the past five weeks, averaging just 80.8 to RBs per game. Las Vegas allows a low 4.3 YPC, but rank in the top half in terms of volume. In his first game returning from his injury, it's likely he won't see a ton of volume. But he should still be able to succeed in this matchup as the Raiders run zone concept run scheme 48% of the time, compared to man/gap just 35%. Pacheco has a 5.19 YPC against zone concept on 16 rush attempts this season. We aren't expecting a full workload for Pacheco in his return, but he should still be involved. Maybe we see a similar situation to what we've seen in Detroit, with Pacheco playing the Jahmyr Gibbs role as the explosive outside runner, with Hunt playing the David Montgomery role as the power, up-the-middle back on short yardage.

Suggested Pick:
Isiah Pacheco's over rushing yards, as long as it's under 60.
Kareem Hunt u59.5 rushing yards (-110)

 

 

WR De'Andre Hopkins

Since coming over to Kansas City, Hopkins has been decent. He's done a good job of at catching the ball, recording 22 catches on 27 targets, but hasn't turned that into a lot of receiving yards with just 235, only topping 40 yards in two of those matchups. His Chiefs debut was against the Raiders, where he caught two of his three targets for 29 receiving yards. However, that can be chalked down to him playing just 14 snaps. The Raiders have been pretty good at limiting WRs, as they allow the eighth-fewest receiving yards (131.6) per game. But are particularly good against outside WRs, allowing the fifth-fewest receiving yards (77.8) to wideouts per game. However, they rank 14th in TDs allowed (0.91) to WRs. Hopkins primarily lines up on the outside, playing majority on the left, where he will draw the Decamerion Richardson matchup. The fourth-round rookie got his first start last week, where he allowed five receptions on eight targets for 70 receiving yards and one touchdown. While it might be another slow night for Hopkins in the yardage department, he should be able to find the end zone, as he has three times as a Chief.

Suggested Pick:
DeAndre Hopkins Touchdown (+162)

 

TE Travis Kelce

It was a brutal start to the season for Kelce, but once Rashee Rice was lost for the season with his knee injury, Kelce regained his spot as Mahomes' top weapon. Since Week 4 –– when Rice was injured –– six receptions and over 60 receiving yards in six of eight games, topping out in Week 9 against the Buccaneers, where he caught 14 of 16 targets for 100 receiving yards. In an earlier meeting this season against the Raiders, Kelce caught 10 of his 12 targets for 90 receiving yards and a touchdown. Las Vegas allow the seventh most receptions (5.7) and the sixth-most receiving yards (61.6) to TEs per game. Kelce shares time both in the slot (39.2%) and inline (32.4%) for his offensive snaps. With no WR filling in the slot role since Rice has been absent, a lot of it has relied on Kelce. Which is great for this matchup, as the Raiders allow the third-highest catch rate (91.4%) inline and the 15th-highest catch rate (71.3%) to the slot. Regardless of where he lines up, Kelce should see a repeated production as he had against the Raiders earlier this season.

Suggested Pick:
Travis Kelce o5.5 Receptions (-145)

Now, I don't know how the Chiefs keep getting away with this. They continue to play down to their opponent, and haven't been able to blow a team out. However, Patrick Mahomes told the media this week that he wishes the team would just blow a team out. I know the Chiefs have troubles covering big spreads, but I think Mahomes might get his wish against the Raiders and Aidan O'Connell, considering all the favourable matchups we've covered.

Pick - Chiefs -13.5 -120
Lean - Over 42.5 -105
Chiefs 38 - Raiders 10

QB Russell Wilson

The loss last Thursday to the Browns from the Steelers fell on the shoulders of the Steelers offense not being able to capitalize on their scoring opportunities. However, when you zoom out, Russell Wilson DID end up completing 21 of 28 passes for 270 yards in that game in a virtual blizzard. He has been an interesting case in the five games that he has started, as he has actually has a low completion % of just 63.1%, which ranks 27th out of 40 NFL QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this year. Despite that, Wilson has a YPA of 8.13 overall, which is the 7th highest in the NFL. This is of course because of Wilson’s success on deep passes throughout the year, completing 17.4% of his deep passes, which ranks 3rd in the NFL behind Jordan Love and Anthony Richardson. The Bengals will most likely show a lot of Cover 3 in this game, a formation they are in 32.9% of their defensive snaps. Not great news for Wilson, who has a YPA of 6.15 against Cover 3 this year, ranking 32 out of 42 QBs. We can still expect for Wilson to have a decent game, but from a betting perspective there is no real clear advantage for or against Wilson, who has played exceptionally well, but now faces a high volume of what is probably his worst coverage faced this season against the Bengals and their Cover 3.

Suggested Play:
Play

RB Jaylen Warren / RB Najee Harris

Last week vs the Browns, Najee Harris’ rush share took a hit in comparison to the four previous weeks in which his rush shares were 58%, 61%, 49%, and 53%. He was down to 47% against the Browns and only handled 16 carries on the night. Fellow RB Jaylen Warren has been seeing a good amount of playing time primarily due to his work as a pass catcher. He has actually been the more consistent straight ahead runner out of the two backs, with a stuff rate of 45.3% from Warren compared to the stuff rate of 51.6% from Harris. The Bengals have not been a dominant force at the line of scrimmage all year, with Cincinnati having only a 39.6% stuff rate defensively, which is 26th in the NFL. This sets up for a scenario where the Steelers can feed Warren on a down to down basis and stay ahead of the chains effectively, with him likely being the better option over Najee to attack this specific defense, with a 48.1% success rate coming against zone concepts that ranks 33rd in the NFL out of 75 RBs with at least 25 rush attempts.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 60.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR George Pickens

Pickens can be a rollercoaster of a player, but he is by far and away the Steelers’ top WR. He runs a route on 82.1% of dropbacks, and has more than double the amount of targets as the next Steeler 26.6%. Against the Cover 3 that Pickens should see a lot of against the Bengals, Pickens has fared very well. He has 3.10 yards per route run against Cover 3, which is also more than double from the next closest WR. He has actually been getting open deep against Cover 3 as well, with a aDOT of 15.6 and averaging 14.84 yards per reception against Cover 3. These primarily have been air yards as well, with Pickens averaging only 3.37 YAC per reception against Cover 3. Another thing that I find interesting about Pickens is the amount of red zone targets he is seeing. He has seen 14 red zone targets which is 5th among all NFL WRs, but with only 5 receptions we are getting a good price on his TD prop, in a matchup where I think Pickens will begin to convert some of his chances sooner or later.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 70.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+125)

WR Calvin Austin

The Steelers have had a tough time finding a 2nd receiving option behind Pickens, but the player who has perhaps most emerged in that role is the slot WR Calvin Austin (who runs 61.8% of his routes in the slot in comparison to 38.2% of his routes out wide). The Bengals have not been anything special when defending slot WRs, giving up 1.97 yards per route run on targets to slot WRs, which is the 11th highest in the NFL. In addition to Pickens who has an aDOT of 14.0 in total, Austin is not far behind him as a deep threat with a 13.0 aDOT. With Wilson liking to test the defense deep in the secondary, Austin has been one of the primary targets, and actually pulled in a TD in the snow on a deeper pass last week vs the Browns. With all that being said, there is too much inconsistency right now at the WR position behind Pickens for me to have any type of lean.

Suggested Play:
Play

TE Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth found himself in a nice bounceback spot last week vs the Browns after a stretch of down games. He not only had his highest target share since week 4, with 12.0% last week, but also was able to pull in all 4 of his targets in the snow for a season-high 59 receiving yards. Freiermuth has been highly active against Cover 3, with a route run on 75.0% of dropbacks, which is the highest on the Steelers. He is also 2nd in receptions and targets behind Pickens against Cover 3. He has just a 4.5 aDOT on these throws and is primarily being used to move the sticks and stay ahead of the chains. Luckily against the Bengals, there certainly is a matchup for him to continue to do so against the defense that has given up the 4th most receiving yards to the TE position per game, at 62.2%. To me, this is an incredibly low number given the matchup and his recent performance.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 27.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

QB Joe Burrow

Despite a rough campaign in 2024 thus far for the Bengals, Joe Burrow has finally started to his stride as of late. He has thrown for 428 passing yards and 356 in his last two games. The Steelers are an interesting team defensively speaking in that they like to force WRs to the outside and protect the middle of the field. This is through their 1 high safety formation that they are in on 71.6% of their snaps, which is by far the highest rate in the NFL. Overall this year, Burrow ranks 19th out of 52 NFL QBs with at least 25 dropbacks with a YPA of 7.42. Against 1-high formations, Burrow has fared quite well, as he has a QBR of 104.4, and an incredibly efficient 11 TD passes to only 2 INTs. Despite having TJ Watt on their line, the Steelers overall have not been able to generate too many pressures on opposing QBs, with a 28.4% pressure-rate that ranks 27th out of 32 NFL teams. With a clean pocket this season, Burrow has been surgical, and has a QBR of 113.1 when not facing pressure, which is good for 5th in the NFL. Overall, we can expect a close game here and Burrow should have a solid matchup to keep up and have a nice game once again.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 249.5 Pass Yards (-115)

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown has seen some huge games volume wise as of late, with 27 and 22 carry games coming in two out of the Bengals’ last three games. Last week’s 86 yard rushing game came against the Chargers, a team that allows an average of 4.84 YPC (which is the 4th highest in the NFL). Even then, these 86 yards came on 22 touches, which is not incredibly efficient. Brown is in for a world of a tougher matchup on Sunday against this Steelers front, which allows only 3.96 YPC on average, which is the 4th fewest in the NFL, and has also done a great job in preventing explosive plays on the ground with only 19.7% of their yards surrendered coming by way of explosive runs. This is not great news for Brown, who has had his share of big runs, and is 22nd out of 75 RBs with at least 25 rush attempts with 152 rush yards. Brown has faced 4 top-10 rush defenses this year in the Chiefs, Ravens twice, and the Eagles. He has not gone over 46 yards in any of those matchups. I do not see that changing here against one of the best defenses against the run in the NFL, especially considering the more favorable matchup that Burrow has through the air.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 62.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Despite the struggles from the Bengals overall, Ja’Marr Chase has had one of the best years of his career. He currently leads the entire league in receiving yards at 1056. He is constantly on the field, and has run a route on 96.2% of dropbacks, which is also the most in the NFL. Against the Steelers, Chase will be running the majority of his routes with 1 high safety. He has been excellent against the coverage, averaging 3.18 yards per route run. What is interesting about this matchup is the fact that Tee Higgins returned last week for the Bengals, changing the dynamics of this WR corps. In games with Higgins, Chase has actually been more explosive, with 3.85 yards per route run in games with him as well as a 11.9 aDOT with him in comparison to 9.0 without him. Without Higgins Chase was needed to be more of a down to down receiver and that resulted in less deep routes, but with him the Bengals have shown they like to unleash him down the field more. Chase leads the league in WR TDs at 12, and 5 TDs in the last 2 road games. This is a great matchup for him to find another one against, now with Higgins in the game to provide Chase with a nice decoy.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (-120)

WR Tee Higgins

In games with Chase, which are all the games that Higgins has played, Higgins has not been far behind Chase from an efficiency standpoint, averaging 2.35 total yards per route run in comparison to Chase’s 2.66. He does not have the YAC potential that Chase does, but actually leads the Bengals in air yards at 39.2%, and also has the 2nd highest aDOT among WRs on the team (but behind Andrei Iosivas, not Chase). He has been targeted more than Chase when the two are on the field, with 56 total targets in comparison to 49 for Chase. The primary difference in production has simply been the YAC of Chase. The Steelers have been vulnerable in allowing YAC, giving up 5.65 YAC/reception, which is the 9th highest in the NFL. Despite that, Higgins is has been consistent as they come when he is on the field and is averaging 9.7 targets a game, and should be able to pull down 6-7 receptions in this game. Given the aDOT, that should be enough to clear his receiving yards even with Chase on the field.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 66.5 Suggested Play (-120)

TE Mike Gesicki

One player that the presence of Higgins has negatively impacted is the tight end Mike Gesicki. With Higgins on the field, Gesicki is running a route on only 55.4% of his dropbacks, and has only 8 total receptions in those 5 games for 71 total receiving yards. There also are several other TEs that the Bengals like to rotate, such as Drew Sample and Erick All. Gesicki has an incredibly inefficient 0.55 yards per route run. The Steelers defense has given up 534 receiving yards in total to the TE position, which is middle of the road. When Gesicki has made catches, they have been significant with a 10.8 aDOT in games with Higgins and Chase. Because of this, just one or two receptions could put him over his line even if overall he is inefficient and has to split a lot of snaps with other TEs.

Suggested Play:
Pass

When looking at these team’s records alone it may seem surprising to some that the Bengals are a 3 point favorite, but in all reality this team has been much better than their record would suggest, especially as of late. The issue has simply been closing out games. With their offense entirely healthy I think the home crowd will be enough to finally get them over the top. The Steelers offense will keep up well for a while, and we can expect a shootout, but I think the play makers at WR plus the hot streak of Burrow will be enough for Cincy.

Best Bet: Bengals -2.5 -125
Longshot: ‘O’ 48.5
Steelers 24 Bengals 30

QB Justin Herbert

It was a slow start through the air for Justin Herbert, but now, the shackles are off his wrists, and coach Jim Harbaugh is allowing him to be the gun-slinger we're all used to seeing. Through the first three weeks of the season, Herbert didn't eclipse 180 passing yards in any game. But over the past seven games, he's gone over five of seven games, topping 275 on four of those occasions. And despite the increase in passing volume (31.7 through the last seven compared to 22.3 through the first four), Herbert has thrown just one interception on the entire season. Herbert faces the Falcons this week, who should have the NFC South locked up but continue to shoot themselves in the foot and have allowed the Buccaneers to re-enter the conversation. The Falcons defence allows the 14th-most passing yards (232.5), the seventh-most pass attempts (34.1) but the third-most completions (23.5) to QBs this season. Which all works out to be the highest completion percentage (71.6%) allowed across the entire NFL. This should be great news for Herbert, as he's actually having the worst completion percentage of his career at 62.9%. Another area this Falcons defence struggles through the air is keeping players out of the end zone. They allow the third most passing TDs (1.9) per game to QBs. Herbert failed to throw a TD last game against the Baltimore Ravens; however, before that, he had 2+ passing TDs in three of his previous four games. The Chargers offensive line has done a decent job at protecting Herbert, as they have the 13th-highest pass-blocking grade on PFF. Herbert has been pressured on just 33% of his dropbacks this season, which is 25th among qualified QBs. When he's kept clean, Herbert's yards per attempt shoot up from 6.3 when pressured to 8.2 in a clean pocket, with a 10-0 touchdown-interception ratio. This is great news for Herbert as the Falcons have the second-worst PFF-graded pass rush in the NFL. Due to the poor pass rush, this allows QBs more time to throw, but also, allows them time to escape the pocket if nothing is down field and get some yards on the ground. Which reflects in the Falcons allowing the fifth-most rushing yards (25.1) to QBs. Herbert has been using his legs a lot more lately, averaging 35.4 rush yards per game on the ground. The Falcons run the third-most zone coverage (88.2%), where Herbert thrives. He has the seventh-highest yards per attempt (8.4) and the second-highest quarterback rating against the coverage (107.1).

Suggested Pick:
Justin Herbert o1.5 Passing TDs (-105)
Justin Herbert o21.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

 

RB Gus Edwards

What a shame it was to see JK Dobbins go down last week against his former team, the Baltimore Ravens. He was having such a resurgent season for the Chargers, but he has already been ruled out for this matchup against the Falcons, handing the keys to the RB room to another former Raven, Gus Edwards. Edwards was originally slated to be the starter before the emergence of Dobbins. On the season, he has 206 rushing yards on 63 rush attempts, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and one rushing TD. Through the air, he's been a non-factor as he's caught just one ball this season for two receiving yards. That one catch came in Week 1. This Falcons run defence is fairly decent, allowing the 17th-most rushing yards (90.7) per game this season and really limit RB TDs, as they have allowed just three RBs to rush into the end zone on the year. However, where they do struggle is through the air. They allow the third-most receptions (6.2) and the 15th-most receiving yards (34.3) to RBs this season. However, with Edwards being such a net zero in the passing game, this isn't something we're going to target. And given Edwards wasn't successful last week on the ground in relief of Dobbins (finishing with 11 rushing yards on nine attempts), we could see rookie Kimani Vidal worked into this offence, killing any sort of volume upside Edwards may receive.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

 

WR Ladd McConkey

Chargers fans, it looks like Ladd McConkey has arrived as he's elevated his game of late and has become one of Herbert's most trusted targets. Over the last five weeks, McConkey has gone over 50 receiving yards in each game, topping 100+ in two of those five games. He's caught 25 of his 30 targets over that span for an impressive 83.3% catch rate. The Falcons pass defence is allowing the 12th-most receiving yards (152.4) but the third-most receptions (13.6). Inclidating that this matchup favours receivers with a low aDoT, as they average the lowest aDoT in the entire league. Which is perfect for him, as out of the top three Chargers WRs, McConkey averages the lowest aDoT (10.8) amongst the group (Johnston 14.8 & Palmer 16.4). With the Falcons running the third-most zone coverage, it's an alright spot for McConkey. Overall, he's better against man coverage, but still has averages 14.5 yards per reception vs. zone and has a 72.7% catch rate. Whereas against man, he averages 17.6 yards per reception and has an 80% catch rate. McConkey lines up in the slot 72% of the time, and will likely draw the Dee Alford matchup. On the season, Alford has allowed 45 receptions on 60 targets for a 75% catch rate, but is great at limiting yards, as he hasn't allowed an average of 7.0 yards per reception in his previous four matchups. This matchup just sets up perfectly for a high volume game for McConkey. The Falcons allow the sixth-fewest aDoT (7.4) but the sixth-highest catch rate (74.6%) to slot WRs this season. McConkey has six plus receptions in two straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Ladd McConkey o5.5 Receptions (+110)

 

 

WR Quentin Johnston

The drop king! Just kidding, but it was a rough week for Johnston last week. On the season, he hadn't recorded a single drop; however, last week, he finished the game with zero receptions on his five targets with three drops. This brought Johnston to 18th in the league in terms of drop percentage at 12%. Against zone, Johnston actually has the highest PFF grade of the three main Chargers WRs. However, that has only amounted to 13 receptions for 251 yards. His yards per reception is high at 19.3 against the coverage, but it's very low volume, especially against zone. For a 6'4" 215-lb WR, you should be able to trust him to be able to go up and get the ball in a contested catch. However, against zone, he's caught just one of his four contested catch targets this season. Where he does succeed is TDs. He's caught all six of his TDs against zone coverage, while Palmer is the only other Chargers WR to record one against the coverage. Johnston lines up on the left side of the field 64% of the time and on the right side 28%. He will likely draw the AJ Terrell matchup. Terrell has been great at limiting yards over the past four weeks, finishing with a yards per reception under 10 yards in three of the last four games and 8.7 over that span. This doesn't bode well for Johnston who has a one of the highest aDoT's on the team. However, despite the drops, Herbert wasn't afraid to continue to throw the ball Johnston's way. So, I'm assuming Herbert will put some effort into bringing up his confidence and find him in the end zone. The Falcons allow the most receiving TDs to outside WRs this season (10).

Suggested Pick:
Quentin Johnston TD (+210)

 

TE Will Dissly

Dissly resurrected his career here in Los Angeles, as he's become the second option in this offence with 41 receptions for 399 receiving yards. Against TEs, the Falcons are middle of the pack, allowing the 18th-most (49) receiving yards and the 22nd-most receptions (4.7) to the position. Where Dissly has an advantage is against zone. He has the highest grade on PFF against the coverage, catching 32 of his 36 targets for 326 receiving yards and one touchdown. Dissly lines up inline 52.2% of the time and 29.4% in the slot. Atlanta allows the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (18.4) to inline receivers. It might be tough for Dissly to acumulate yards in this match, but like McConkey, he should be able to catch some balls through the middle of the field. He has registered 4+ receptions in six of his previous seven games.

Suggested Pick:
Will Dissly 4+ Receptions (-220)

QB Kirk Cousins

It has been a difficult season for Cousins as he returns back from his Achillies injury he sustained last season. His numbers don't look terrible, but just by the eye test it's been rough. He has thrown over 200 yards in nine of his 11 games this season, but compared to last season, where he threw 270+ in six of eight of his games, it's not a clear decline. To put it in perspective, Cousins has thrown for 340+ passing yards last year the same amount of times he's thrown for 240+ this season (4). This Chargers defence is no slouch, either. They allow the 18th most completions (20.8) and the 13th-most pass attempts (32.8) but the 10th-fewest passing yards (219.4) per game to QBs. The Chargers run nearly the same amount of zone as the Falcons do at 87.4% of the time. Cousins ranks as the 10th-highest QB in terms of passing yards per game at 174.1 per game. But that doesn't paint the entire picture as he sees the eighth highest volume at 247 pass attempts against the coverage. And that lines up with the Chargers as they allow the 11th-fewest completion percentage (68.1%) but the seventh most pass attempts (282) to the coverage. Not sure how well Cousins will do in the matchup, but his volume should be high, considering they're underdogs in this matchup, and will need to trust Cousins' arm in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Kirk Cousins o33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

 

RB Bijan Robinson

Well, it took a year and half for the Atlanta Falcons to finally start trusting Bijan as a bell cow running back, but we are blessed that is has happened now. Since Week 9, Bijan has seen 70%+ of the snaps, leaving Allgeier to see 20% just twice and a low of 7% in Week 11. During the span, Bijan has logged an average of 17 rush attempts, 77 rushing yards (which includes a 35-yard performance against the Broncos), 14 receptions on his 15 targets and 38.3 receiving yards. His finally be utilizied as a three down back as he was drafted to be with the eighth overall pick. The Chargers are middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed to RBs (92.2); however, seventh-fewest rush attempts (19.3). Which means they're allowing a high yards per carry and breakaway runs. And that reflects in their sixth-highest yards per carry (4.84). In terms of run scheme, the Chargers run the fifth-most zone concept at 51.5%. Which is the perfect matchup for Bijan, as he averages 5.08 yards per carry in zone concept compared to a disappointing 3.62 against man/gap. While it's not a great matchup in terms of run defence, the Chargers have allowed six running backs over the previous five weeks to go over their longest rush prop. So we're going to trust Bijan and his breakaway speed to do the same in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Bijan Robinson o17.5 Longest Rush (-115)

 

WR Drake London

London has had the best season of his career, posting 61 receptions for 710 receiving yards and six touchdowns for an 11.6 yards per reception. Now that he has a competent QB under centre that can get him the ball, he's thriving. The Chargers allow the sixth-fewest receptions to WRs (10.4) and the 17th-most receiving yards (140.8). They average a surprisingly low yards per reception at 10.5 and a low 68.9% catch rate. London against zone is alright. He's better against man coverage, but has registered 37 receptions on 54 targets for 439 receiving yards against zone, with a 68.5% catch rate and a 11.9 yards per reception. London lines up all over the field, playing 25% on the left, 35% in the slot, and 41% on the right and will likely draw the Tarheeb Still matchup. Still has been a tough matchup for opposing WRs this season, allowing just a 59.1% catch rate and 10.3 yards per reception. He's had one game over the previous five games where he's allowed more than four receptions and 45 receiving yards. So, despite not being a household name, Still might cause problems for London in this matchup. He has gone under his receiving yards line in three of his last four games, averaging 54.8 receiving yards per game.

Suggested Pick:
Drake London u62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Darnell Mooney

While London is the clear one in this offence, Darnell Mooney actually has more receiving yards on the season. Well, by one, but nobody thought they would be close at the start of the season. Mooney has a lower catch rate than London, but that's to be expected when he has a higher aDoT (12.6 to London's 10.8) and yards per reception (14.8 to London's 11.6). Against zone, it's about the same matchup for Mooney, as he's got a 64.4% catch rate for a 13.5 yards per reception against the coverage. Mooney, like London, lines up all over the field. He plays 39% on the left, 33% in the slot and 28% on the right and will likely draw the Kristian Fulton matchup. I don't know if you watched their Monday Night Football game against the Ravens, but down the stretch it seemed like they were targeting Fulton often and it worked. Now, he just ended up allowing three receptions on five targets, but he had multiple penalties called on him. Cousins should do the same this week to get Mooney more involved. What plays best out for Mooney in this matchup, is Fulton allows the big plays. Through the previous three weeks, he's allowed an average of 20, 16.3 and 15.3 yards per reception. That falls right into Mooney's bread basket. Given his lower line, but higher production, we're putting our faith into Mooney over London this week in what's an easier matchup. Mooney has recorded 50+ receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 69(nice).6 per game.

Suggested Pick:
Darnell Mooney 50+ Receiving Yards -120

 

TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts is a frustrating player to deal with. There's flashes, but there's duds that go with that. On the season, he has four games where he finished with 20 or fewer receiving yards, but yet, has the same amount of games where he goes over 65 receiving yards. Lately, he's been on and off as through the previous four weeks, Pitts has two games with nine and 11 receiving yards, but the other two he had 55 and 91 receiving yards. What's it going to be in the matchup? Boom or bust? Well, this Chargers defence allow the ninth most receptions (5.6) and the 17th-most receiving yards (49.2) per game to TEs this season. Pitts lines up in the slot 39.8% of the time and inline 37.8%. The Chargers are middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards per game to slot receivers (78.3) and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to inline receivers (28). However, to inline receivers, the Chargers allow the eighth-highest catch rate at 83.8%. It's always scary betting on Pitts to get volume, but that's where he has the edge in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Kyle Pitts o3.5 Receptions (+108)

I usually like to back the team coming off their bye week, but in all honesty, I'm just liking what I'm seeing from this Chargers team a lot more than what I'm seeing out of the Falcons. Sure, it's going to be a huge blow for the Chargers missing JK Dobbins, but with Herbert's recent uptick in rushing, we're not as worried about that. Give me the QB who's on the incline, not the decline.

Pick - Chargers ML -118
Lean - Under 47.5 -105
Chargers 24 - Falcons 20

QB CJ Stroud

Stroud is averaging 239.6 passing yards per game, 7.26 YPA and has thrown 14 TDs. He’s been better with Nico, as he’s averaging 269.9 passing yards per game with him active. He’ll face a Jaguars defense that is allowing the 2^nd most passing yards per game and the most passing TDs. The Jaguars have the 5^th lowest pressure rate over expected. When operating from a clean pocket, Stroud averages 7.87 YPA and has a QB rating of 96.2. The Jaguars play man coverage at the 2^nd highest frequency in the league (40.9%). Against man, Stroud averages 7.6 YPA and has a QB rating of 94.6. Since week 8, they are also running the 3^rd highest frequency of two-high (59.9%). Stroud has negative splits averaging 6.76 YPA and a QB rating of 88.1 against two-high. In 3 games against the Jaguars, Stroud is averaging 309.7 passing yards and 2 TDs.

Suggested Pick
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (+108)
“O” 263.5 Pass Yds (-113)

 

RB Joe Mixon

Mixon is averaging 87.3 rushing yards per game on 4.25 YPC and 10 rushing TDs. He’s also averaging 25.1 receiving yards per game. The Jaguars allow the 7^th most rushing yards per game, but the 13^th fewest yards per carry. They allow the 7^th highest rate of runs going for 15+ yards (6.1%). The Jags struggle more defending man/gap concepts, allowing 4.78 YPC compared to 3.98 YPC against zone concepts. Only 33% of Mixon’s attempts have been man/gap concepts, but he has positive splits averaging 5.2 YPC compared to 3.72 YPC in zone concepts. The Jaguars also allow the 3^rd most receiving yards to opposing RBs. Since week 8, they are running the 3^rd highest frequency of two-high (59.9%). Mixon has been targeted on 30% of his routes against two-high, compared to an overall TPRR of 26%. The Jaguars also run the 2^nd highest frequency of man coverage (40.9%). Mixon has positive splits against man, averaging 2.52 YPRR and 28% TPRR, compared to 1.46 YPRR and 21% TPRR against zone.

Suggested Pick
“O” 19.5 Rec Yds (-115)
25+ Rec Yds (+130)
40+ Rec Yds (+375)

 

WR Nico Collins

Nico is averaging 101.9 receiving yards per game, 3.44 YPRR and 29% TPRR. He has a 1^st-read rate of 28.7%. He’ll face a Jaguars defense that allows the 2^nd most receiving yards per game to wide aligned receivers. Nico lines up out wide on 79% of his routes. The Jaguars play man coverage at the 2^nd highest frequency in the league (40.9%). Nico has positive splits against man, averaging 3.94 YPRR and 32% TPRR. Since week 8, they are also running the 3^rd highest frequency of two-high (59.9%). Nico has negative splits against two-high, averaging 3.04 YPRR and 27% TPRR. The Jaguars have the 5^th lowest pressure rate over expected. When Stroud is not pressured, Nico averages 4.04 YPRR, 36% TPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 30.5%.

Suggested Pick
“O” 83.5 Rec Yds (-115)
90+ Rec Yds (+116)
100+ Rec Yds (+162)

 

WR Tank Dell

After starting the season with lingering injuries and a crowded WR room, Dell has looked better as of late. Since week 8, he’s averaging 65.2 receiving yards per game, 2.08 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 24%. Despite Nico coming back the past 2 games, Tank still put up 54 and 72 receiving yards. Since week 8, he’s lined up out wide on 73.9% of his routes. The Jaguars allow the 2^nd most receiving yards to wide aligned WRs. The Jaguars play man coverage at the 2^nd highest frequency in the league (40.9%). Since week 8, Tank averages 3.24 YPRR and 24% TPRR against man coverage. Over the last 2 weeks, Tank ranks 1^st in separation and 12^th in route win rate. He should be able to cook against the Jaguars man coverage. The Jaguars also have the 5^th lowest pressure rate over expected. When Stroud has not been pressured, Tank averages 3.11 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes since week 8.

Suggested Pick
“O” 50.5 Rec Yds (-120)
60+ Rec Yds (+130)
70+ Rec Yds (+200)
80+ Rec Yds (+300)

TE Dalton Schultz

Schultz is averaging 30.3 receiving yards per game, 1.11 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. He’s ran a route on 68% of Stroud’s drop backs. The Jaguars are allowing the 12^th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. Schultz lines up inline on 57.3% of his routes and in the slot on 29% of his routes. The Jaguars allow the 7^th highest inline target share (13.0%) and the 4^th lowest slot target share (28.9%). The Jaguars play man coverage at the 2^nd highest frequency in the league (40.9%). Schultz averages 1.05 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes against man. Since week 8, the Jaguars are also running the 3^rd highest frequency of two-high (59.9%). Schultz averages 0.89 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes against two-high.

Suggested Pick
“O” 26.5 Rec Yds (-115)

QB Trevor Lawrence

Trevor is expected to return after missing the last 2 games with a shoulder injury. He is averaging 222.7 passing yards per game, 7.31 YPA and has 11 passing TDs on the season. He’ll face a Texans defense allowing the 7^th fewest passing yards per game (216) but has allowed the most passing TDs (24). The Texans have the 3^rd highest pressure rate over expected. When Lawrence is pressured, he averages 4.09 YPA and has a QB rating of 50.9. That compares to 8.12 YPA and a 97.2 QB rating when not pressured. The Texans are around league average in terms of coverage scheme tendencies, playing single-high 52.3% of the time and two-high 47.7% of the time. They play zone 70.6% of the time, right around league average. Trevor averages 8.34 YPA and has a QB rating of 94.8 against zone coverage. That compares to 5.8 YPA and a QB rating of 64.9 against man coverage.

Suggested Pick
“U” 213.5 Pass Yds (-117)
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (+165)

 

RB Travis Etienne

Etienne is averaging 36.1 rushing yards per game and has been the less efficient RB averaging 3.96 YPC. He was back up to a 75% snap share last game with Bigsby out, but Tank is expected to return this week. He’ll face a Texans defense allowing the 13^th most yards per carry (4.43) but the 11^th fewest rushing yards per game (110.8). The Texans also allow the 5^th fewest receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (24.17). The Texans allow 4.48 YPC against man/gap concepts compared to 3.76 YPC against zone concepts. Etienne is averaging 3.04 YPC in man/gap concepts and 5.00 YPC in zone concepts. The Texans do allow the 4^th highest rate of runs to go 15+ yards (6.7%). 6.1% of Etienne’s rush attempts have gone for 15+ yards, accounting for 28% of his total rushing yards. He has been the less explosive RB for the Jags.

Suggested Pick
“U” 31.5 Rush Yds (-113)
“U” 2.5 Rec (-114)

 

RB Tank Bigsby

Bigsby sat out week 11 due to an ankle injury but is expected to return this week after the bye. Bigsby has taken work from Etienne throughout the season, averaging 51.9 rushing yards per game and a more efficient 5.46 YPC. He’ll face a Texans defense allowing the 13^th most yards per carry (4.43) but the 11^th fewest rushing yards per game (110.8). The Texans also allow the 5^th fewest receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (24.17). The Texans allow 4.48 YPC against man/gap concepts compared to 3.76 YPC against zone concepts. Bigsby is averaging 4.58 YPC in man/gap concepts compared to 5.35 YPC in zone concepts. The Texans do allow the 4^th highest rate of runs to go 15+ yards (6.7%). 7.4% of Bigsby’s attempts have been explosive, accounting for 43% of his rushing yard totals. He has been the more explosive RB for the Jags.

Suggested Pick
“O” 11.5 Long Rush (-120)
“O” 37.5 Rush Yds (-113)
50+ Rush Yds (+215)
60+ Rush Yds (+375)
70+ Rush Yds (+600)

 

WR Brian Thomas

BTJ is averaging 62.6 receiving yards per game, 2.39 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 22%. He gets his starting QB back, and he averages 66.1 receiving yards per game with him compared to 47 without. The Texans allow the 10^th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. Thomas has lined up out wide on 74.3% of his routes and in the slot on 25.7% of his routes. The Texans are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to wide alignment and allow the 13^th most receiving yards to the slot. The Texans have the 3^rd highest pressure rate over expected. When his QB is pressured, Thomas leads the Jaguars in YPRR (1.02) and has a 24.3% 1^st-read rate. The Texans also allow the most receiving TDs to WR. Thomas is a big-bodied receiver that has found the end zone 5 times his rookie season, I like his chances to add another one this week.

Suggested Pick
Anytime TD (+205)
“O” 57.5 Rec Yds (-120)

 

TE Evan Engram

Engram is averaging 41.6 receiving yards per game, 1.76 YPRR and has been targeted on 30% of his routes. He leads the Jaguars in 1^st-read rate at 26.3%. He’ll get his starting QB back, where he averages 44.6 receiving YPG compared to 34 without. The Texans allow the 4^th fewest receiving yards per game to TE.  Engram lines up in the slot on 40.6% of his routes and inline on 38.8%. The Texans allow the lowest target share to inline (7.6%) and the 19^th highest target share to the slot (31.5%). The Texans have the 3^rd highest pressure rate over expected. When his QB is pressured, Engram averages only 0.52 YPRR and has been targeted on 10% of his routes. Not a great matchup for Engram to produce.

Suggested Pick
“U” 47.5 Rec Yds (-113)

The Jaguars are 2-9 and coming off 4 straight losses, but the reason this spread is this short is likely because they are coming out of a bye week. The Texans on the other hand lost to the Titans last week, in a game they were favored by 8 points. I like the Texans to get back on track after an embarrassing loss last week. They were fine offensively, scoring 27 points, but their defense let up 32 to a below average Titans offense. Even with Trevor Lawrence coming back, this Texans team is just far more talented. The defense should be motivated after an awful performance, take the Texans -2.5.  

Best Bet (Texans -2.5 -150)
Lean (Over 43.5 -110)
Texans 27 Jaguars 17

QB Matthew Stafford

On the season, Stafford is averaging 254.5 passing yards per game, 7.27 YPA and has thrown 15 passing TDs. With Kupp and Puka both healthy, his passing yards split increases to 287.5 per game. He’ll face a Saints defense that allows the 4^th most passing yards per game (270.9), but the 5^th least passing TDs. It’s also worth noting that Marshon Lattimore hasn’t played for the Saints since week 8 and was eventually traded to the Commanders. From week 9 forward, the Saints allow the 2^nd most passing yards per game (290.7). They have played two-high 52.7% of the time, 7^th highest. Their primary coverage schemes are Cover 1 and Cover 2, which they run 26% and 24.7% of the time respectively. Against two-high, Stafford averages 7.04 YPA and has a QB rating of 102.1. Against the Saints 2 primary coverages, he averages 6.22 YPA and has a QB rating of 76.2. After throwing for just 243 passing yards against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL last week (PHI), I expect Stafford to bounce back with a big game.

Suggested Pick
“O” 259.5 Pass Yds (-114)
275+ Pass Yds (+145)
300+ Pass Yds (+265)

 

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren is averaging 74.7 rushing yards per game, on an inefficient 3.97 YPC. He’s also added 9 rushing TDs on the season. He’ll face a Saints defense that allows the 8^th most rushing yards per game and the 2^nd most YPC (5.02). The Saints especially struggle against man/gap concepts as they allow a league leading 61% success rate. That compares to a 54.1% success rate against zone concepts, which is 4^th highest. Kyren is much more successful in man/gap concepts, with a 57.3% success rate. That compares to a 43.3% success rate in zone concepts. After trending down to an 81% snap share in week 11, he was back up to 91% in week 12, one of the few bell cows left in this league. Opportunities should be plentiful as 2.5-point favorites.

Suggested Pick
“O” 81.5 Rush Yds (-115)

 

WR Puka Nucua

Puka is averaging 81.7 receiving yards per game, 3.2 YPRR and has been targeted on 35% of his routes. He commands a 27.2% 1^st-read rate, 2^nd on the team behind Cooper Kupp. He’ll face a Saints defense that allows the 5^th most receiving yards per game to WR on the season and traded away Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. They have played two-high 52.7% of the time, 7^th highest. Their primary coverage schemes are Cover 1 and Cover 2, which they run 26% and 24.7% of the time respectively. Against two-high, Puka averages 1.8 YPRR, 25% TPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 20.3%. Against Cover 1 and 2, Puka averages 2.97 YPRR, 35% TPRR, and has a 1^st-read rate of 26.7%. Puka has lined up out wide on 76.2% of his routes. The Saints have allowed the 11^th highest target share (41.9%), 3^rd most receiving yards per game (121.8) and the 12^th most YPRR (2.06) to wide alignment.

Suggested Pick
“O” 80.5 Rec Yds (-115)

 

WR Cooper Kupp

Kupp is averaging 78.3 receiving yards per game, 2.31 YPRR and has been targeted on 32% of his routes. He commands the highest 1^st-read rate on the team at 37%. He’ll face a Saints defense that allows the 5^th most receiving yards per game to WR on the season and traded away Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. They have played two-high 52.7% of the time, 7^th highest. Their primary coverage schemes are Cover 1 and Cover 2, which they run 26% and 24.7% of the time respectively. Against two-high, Kupp averages 2.61 YPRR, 31% TPRR and has 1^st-read rate of 34.6%. Against Cover 1 and 2, Cooper averages 1.55 YPRR, 32% TPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 32.9%. Kupp has lined up in the slot on 61.2% of his routes. The Saints have allowed the 12^th highest target share (33.4%), the 3^rd most receiving yards per game (93.8) and the 5^th most YPRR (2.07) to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“O” 68.5 Rec Yds (-115)
80+ Rec Yds (+165)
90+ Rec Yds (+240)

QB Derek Carr

Derek Carr is averaging 217.8 passing yards per game, 8.26 YPA and has thrown 13 TDs. He’ll face a Rams defense allowing the 8^th most passing yards and 8^th most passing TDs per game on the season. The Rams are 8^th in pressure rate over expected. They play single-high 55.7% of the time (9^th most) and allow 0.59 fantasy points per drop back in this scheme (most in NFL). Their favorite coverage is Cover 3, which they run 34.6% of the time (8^th highest). Carr has been decent against pressure, averaging 7.4 YPA and has a QB rating of 90.2, not a major drop off. Against single-high, he has positive splits averaging 9.26 YPA and a QB rating of 105.8. Against Cover 3, those averages increase even further, 10.35 YPA and a QB rating of 109.6. Nice matchup here in a game with an O/U of 48.5, expect Carr to execute.

Suggested Pick
“O” 214.5 Pass Yds (-114)
250+ Pass Yds (+200)

 

RB Alvin Kamara

Kamara is averaging 71.1 rushing yards per game on 4.27 YPC and has 6 rushing TDs. He’ll face a Rams defense that is allowing the 12^th most YPC (4.61) and the 5^th most rushing yards per game overall (144.3). The Rams are worse against zone concepts, allowing the 8^th most YPC (4.64). Against man/gap concepts they are better, allowing the 21^st most YPC (4.43). 72.1% of Kamara’s carries have been zone concepts, where he averages 4.56 YPC. That compares to 3.74 YPC in man/gap concepts, which account for 27.3% of his carries. Looking at the receiving game, Kamara averages 40.3 receiving yards per game, 2.02 YPRR and has been targeted on 32% of his routes. He runs a route on 57.5% of his team’s drop backs. The Rams allow 35.55 receiving yards per game to RB (11^th most). They play single-high 55.7% of the time (9^th most) and allow 0.59 fantasy points per drop back in this scheme (most in NFL). Kamara averages 2.03 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes against single-high.

Suggested Pick
“O” 105.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-117)

 

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Valdes-Scantling has 109 and 87 receiving yards in the last 2 games off only 3 and 2 receptions respectively. He had 67- and 71-yard catches in these games. Marquez was cut by the Bills after they traded for Amari Cooper and was later signed by the Saints on October 21^st. His snap share rose to 55% and 65% in the past 2 games as he gets familiar with the offense. He has always been a deep ball guy, and in the past 2 games has an aDOT of 26.4. He’ll face a Rams defense that is league average in terms of receiving yards per game allowed to WRs. They play single-high 55.7% of the time (9^th most) and allow 0.59 fantasy points per drop back in this scheme (most in NFL). Their favorite coverage is Cover 3, which they run 34.6% of the time (8^th highest). Against single-high, Valdes-Scantling averages 2.93 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes, compared to his overall rates of 2.01 YPRR and 15% TPRR. The Rams also allow the 4^th most YPRR on targets of 20+ yards down field. I could see Marquez catching another deep ball against a susceptible Rams secondary.

Suggested Pick
“O” 19.5 Long Rec (-110)
“U” 2.5 Rec (-137)
“O” 34.5 Rec Yds (-115)
50+ Rec Yds (+200)
60+ Rec Yds (+320)
70+ Rec Yds (+475)
80+ Rec Yds (+750)

 

TE Taysom Hill

In the past 3 games, Hill is averaging 42.3 receiving yards per game. He’s also averaging 5.3 rush attempts per game, and went insane last week, rushing for 138 yards and had 3 TDs. He’s the ultimate swiss army knife, and with the Saints depleted weapons, he should continue to see creative ways to get him involved. He’ll face a Rams defense that allows the 10^th most receiving yards to TE. They also allow the 12^th most YPC (4.61) and the 5^th most rushing yards per game overall (144.3). From a receiving perspective, Hill has lined up inline on 42.4%, out wide 27.3% and in the slot on 24.2% of his routes. The Rams allow the 4^th highest inline target share (13.4%), the 8^th lowest slot target share (29.5%), and the 18^th highest wide alignment target share (40.4%). It’s hard to handicap Hill, as he lines up all over and gets the ball so many different ways, but with all the injuries and a breakout game before the bye, I expect him to remain heavily involved.

Suggested Pick
“O” 63.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-130)

 

The passing attack with Stafford, Puka and Cooper all healthy has been elite. With the Saints allowing the 4^th most passing yards per game and being even worse since they got rid of their best corner Marshon Lattimore, I expect fireworks from the Rams offense. They are coming off a game against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, the Eagles and Stafford still managed to throw for 243 yards. On the other side of the ball, I expect Derek Carr and the Saints to make some big plays themselves against a below average Rams defense. The Rams just have a little bit more fire power, so I’ll take them to cover by a field goal in a game I expect to be a shootout.

Best Bet (Rams -2.5)
Lean (Over 49.5)
Rams 27 Saints 24

QB Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts enters this matchup against a Ravens defense that, despite its strong reputation, has struggled significantly against the pass. Baltimore allows the most passing yards per game (297.4) and has surrendered the third-most passing touchdowns (22), with opposing quarterbacks achieving a 97.2 passer rating (11th highest). This aligns well with Hurts’ strengths, particularly his success against man coverage, which Baltimore uses 30.3% of the time (13th highest). Against man, Hurts has excelled with a 62.5% completion rate, a stellar 123.8 passer rating, and a 7:1 TD-INT ratio. His ability to capitalize on one-on-one matchups with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith makes him a dangerous playmaker in these situations. Against zone coverage, which Baltimore employs 65.8% of the time (20th highest), Hurts is more methodical, completing 73.5% of his passes but with a lower passer rating of 97.3 and a 4:3 TD-INT ratio. His ability to read defenses and make quick decisions will be crucial in exploiting gaps in Baltimore’s coverage, particularly in the intermediate and short areas of the field. Hurts’ success will depend on exploiting Baltimore’s man coverage for explosive plays, patiently picking apart their zone schemes, and using his legs to extend drives and create red-zone opportunities. A balanced approach could lead to a productive game both through the air and on the ground. The oddsmakers have already adjusted his totals through the air for this matchup, so I’ll look elsewhere.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions -110
Anytime Touchdown Scorer -120
‘O’ 35.5 Rushing Yards -110

 

RB Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley enters this matchup in remarkable form, with 100+ rushing yards in five of his last six games and over 185 scrimmage yards in four of those outings. His most recent performance, a 300+ scrimmage yard explosion with two touchdowns, underscores his elite dual-threat capability. Over his last four games, he’s tallied two or more touchdowns in three contests, solidifying his status as a critical offensive weapon. Barkley’s ability to excel as both a runner and receiver makes him a versatile challenge for any defense. Baltimore, however, boasts one of the league’s most formidable run defenses. The Ravens allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game (77.9), the lowest yards per carry (3.46), and rank third in limiting explosive runs (2.6%). They are particularly effective against man/gap run schemes, ranking 5th in success rate, though they are slightly less dominant (12th) against zone schemes. Barkley’s running style includes both zone and man/gap concepts, giving him some flexibility, but he may find more success exploiting Baltimore’s relative weakness against zone runs. Even with Barkley’s recent dominance, Baltimore’s stout front will likely limit his efficiency on the ground, putting a premium on his volume and red-zone opportunities. Where Barkley could shine is in the passing game. The Ravens allow the 5th-highest target rate to running backs (17.5%), the 4th-most receiving yards, and the 6th-most receptions to the position. This vulnerability aligns perfectly with Barkley’s elite receiving skills, particularly on designed routes and screens. With his ability to exploit mismatches against linebackers and safeties, Barkley is positioned to have a significant impact as a receiver, compensating for any limitations in the run game. In a tough matchup on the ground, Barkley’s receiving ability could be the X-factor for his success. Expect him to still put up strong numbers through a mix of rushing and receiving, with his versatility giving him the edge to overcome Baltimore’s strong defensive front.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 17.5 Receiving Yards -120
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions -105

 

RB Kenneth Gainwell

WE do not have any lines yet for Gainwell, but this is a spot where I’d look to fade him. I’m expecting heavy usage from Barkley in a close game. Gainwell tends to get more work in games where they are ahead against lesser opponents. Add to that it’s a terrible matchup? Unders are the only look here.

Suggested Picks
Consider under rushing yards when released

 

WR A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown appears poised for a big game against a Ravens defense that has struggled to contain WR1s this season. The list of dominant performances by top wideouts against Baltimore is staggering: Ladd McConkey (6 catches, 83 yards), George Pickens (8 for 89), Ja’Marr Chase (a historic 11 for 264 and 3 TDs, followed by 10 for 193 and 2 TDs in a separate game), Courtland Sutton (7 for 122), Terry McLaurin (6 for 53 with 2 TDs), Davante Adams (9 for 110 and a TD), and Rashee Rice (7 for 103). Baltimore is allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers (185.8), along with 13.9 receptions and 1.33 touchdowns per game, further highlighting their vulnerability to elite WRs. Brown, who has been a force this season, is averaging 92 receiving yards per game and has surpassed 80 yards in six of eight games. Notably, he excels against man coverage, an area where the Ravens have had difficulty, as shown by the success of WR1s exploiting one-on-one matchups on the outside. Brown’s combination of physicality, route-running, and explosiveness makes him a matchup nightmare for Baltimore’s cornerbacks, who have struggled to contain similar receivers this season. Given the Ravens’ track record against dominant wideouts and Brown’s proven ability to take over games, this shapes up as an excellent opportunity for him to deliver another high-impact performance. Expect him to exploit Baltimore’s man coverage and rack up significant yardage, with a strong chance of finding the end zone.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 88.5 Receiving Yards -113
Anytime Touchdown +130

 

WR DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith enters a favorable matchup against a Ravens secondary that has struggled overall but shows particular vulnerability to slot receivers. Smith, who splits his snaps roughly equally between the outside and the slot, benefits from a Baltimore defense allowing the 8th-most receiving yards per game to slot targets this season, along with a 71.3% catch rate (15th highest). However, the Ravens have been better at limiting slot touchdowns, surrendering just six scores from that alignment all season. Smith has cleared 60 receiving yards in six of nine games this year but has been more inconsistent when sharing the field with A.J. Brown. In the seven games they’ve both played, Smith has surpassed 60 yards only four times, and in the three games where he didn’t, he failed to reach 30 yards. This variability reflects the Eagles’ run-heavy tendencies and Brown’s dominance in the passing game, which often limits Smith’s target share in balanced offensive matchups. While Smith’s talent and versatility make him a consistent threat, backing both Philadelphia wideouts in the same game may not offer value. If Smith’s reception line lands around 5.5, it could be a fade opportunity, given the likely balanced attack from a healthy Eagles offense. He remains a potential secondary weapon capable of producing big plays, but his role in this contest may hinge on game flow and how Baltimore adjusts its coverage to contain Brown.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 5.5 Reception (if it opens there)

 

TE Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert faces a Baltimore defense that, like other areas of its secondary, has been vulnerable to opposing tight ends. The Ravens have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (65.8) and the second-most receptions (6.0), though they’ve done a decent job limiting touchdowns, allowing the 8th-fewest scores to the position. Despite these numbers, the Ravens’ defense doesn’t frequently allow short checkdowns, ranking only 18th in checkdown percentage. This suggests Goedert may not have as many opportunities as a safety valve in this matchup. Recent performances against Baltimore show tight ends having solid but not spectacular games, with players like Will Dissly (4 catches for 47 yards on 4 targets), Darnell Washington (2 for 42 on 4), and Mike Gesicki (4 for 30 on 9) contributing but not breaking out. While the matchup metrics indicate some potential for Goedert to be productive, his ceiling may be limited, especially given Philadelphia’s run-first offense and the presence of primary receiving options A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Given these factors, Goedert is unlikely to dominate, making his production more situational. This matchup may not offer enough value to back Goedert’s overs, as a balanced Eagles offense could limit his opportunities.

Suggested Picks
PASS

QB Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson has been having an MVP-caliber season, leading the Ravens with over 3,000 passing yards, a career-high 67.3% completion rate, and 27 passing touchdowns alongside three rushing scores. His dual-threat ability makes Baltimore’s offense dangerous, but he faces a stiff challenge against a strong Eagles defense. Philadelphia ranks among the league's best against the pass, allowing the 5th-lowest completion rate (62%), the 2nd-fewest passing yards per game (196.9), and the 5th-lowest passer rating (81.5). They’ve given up just 11 passing touchdowns this season while snagging seven interceptions, despite a turnover-worthy throw rate at a modest 3.1% rate (tied for 15th). Given Philadelphia’s solid secondary and tight coverage, Jackson may lean on his legs to make an impact. While the Eagles have generally been effective at containing rushing quarterbacks, they recently allowed Washington’s QB Daniels—playing through injured ribs—to manage seven rushes, hinting at potential opportunities for Jackson. With 8+ rushing attempts, Jackson has surpassed 40 rushing yards in six of seven games this season, and his ability to escape pressure could be a vital component of Baltimore’s game plan. Ultimately, this matchup will test Jackson’s efficiency and decision-making against one of the league’s stingiest defenses. While his rushing ability provides a reliable floor, his ceiling as a passer may be capped if the Eagles’ secondary continues to play at a high level. Look for Jackson to mix in designed runs and scrambles to create offense against a unit built to limit explosive plays.

Suggest Picks
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions -137
‘U’ 227.5 Passing Yards -110
‘O’ 7.5 Rushing Attempts -113

 

RB Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry continues his stellar season, amassing over 1,300 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. However, he enters this matchup coming off his first game of the season without a touchdown. Facing the Eagles' defense won’t make things easier, as they’ve been tough against the run, allowing the 8th-fewest rushing yards per game (83.6) and just four rushing touchdowns to running backs all season. Philly also limits efficiency, ranking 11th in yards per carry allowed (4.30). Despite their stout numbers, the Eagles’ run defense isn’t without cracks. They allow the 10th-highest explosive run rate (5.9%) and rank 28th in stuff rate, meaning opposing runners often gain positive yardage on their attempts. This is a key factor for Henry, who thrives on turning small gains into game-breaking runs. The Eagles have been notably stronger against man/gap runs than zone schemes, but Henry splits his runs fairly evenly between both, giving him versatility in attacking this front. Henry’s production in this game may hinge on finding an explosive run or two, which could help him reach or exceed his rushing yardage line. While his ability to punch in short touchdowns always makes him a scoring threat, the odds aren’t favorable enough to offer value in this matchup, especially against a disciplined red-zone defense. Additionally, Henry’s carry total could be limited by Philly’s ability to control the clock with their run-heavy, time-consuming offense, potentially cutting into his volume. While Henry remains a dangerous weapon, the matchup suggests a challenging path to another monster performance.

Suggested Picks
2+ Touchdowns (+300) - sprinkle

 

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers has showcased both flashes of brilliance and inconsistency in his rookie season with the Ravens, tallying 57 catches for 789 yards and four touchdowns. While his ability to explode for big performances is undeniable—evidenced by four games with over 110 receiving yards—he has also endured stretches of limited production, with multiple games under 40 yards. Recently, Flowers has struggled to maintain high volume, surpassing 5.5 receptions in only three of his last ten outings, a benchmark he'll face again against the Eagles. Philadelphia's defense presents a mixed challenge. They've allowed the 18th most receptions per game to wide receivers but are stingy with the 5th-lowest catch rate (66.8%). Flowers remains Lamar Jackson's top target and is a dynamic threat after the catch, but Baltimore's overall passing volume has been modest. With Flowers seeing more than six targets just twice in his last six games, his performance in this matchup could hinge on the Ravens' offensive game plan and Jackson’s willingness to air it out.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 5.5 Receptions -130

 

WR Rashod Bateman

Rashod Bateman continues to function as a low-volume WR2 in the Ravens' offense, with limited opportunities keeping his production capped. He has played fewer than 70% of snaps in six of his last ten games, reflecting his secondary role in Baltimore’s passing attack. While he has seen four or more targets in eight of those ten outings, he has converted that volume into four or more receptions in just four games. In a tough matchup against the Eagles, Bateman's appeal lies primarily in his ability to stretch the field as a deep threat. With a longest reception line of 17.5 yards, he has surpassed that mark in seven of his last ten games, making it the most intriguing area for potential upside. Against an Eagles secondary that can be susceptible to big plays, Bateman’s role as a vertical threat may offer value, even if his overall involvement remains limited.

Suggested Picks
Long Rec ‘O’ 17.5 Yards -118

 

TE Mark Andrews 

Mark Andrews remains a focal point in Baltimore's offense, particularly in the red zone, where he has scored a touchdown in five of his last seven games. While he occasionally shifts into a blocking-heavy role, the Eagles' relatively low pressure rate (9th lowest in the league) should allow the Ravens to deploy him primarily as a pass-catching weapon in this matchup. However, Andrews faces a tough test against a Philadelphia defense that has been elite at defending tight ends. The Eagles have allowed the 6th fewest receptions (4.18) and 5th fewest receiving yards (36.9) per game to the position and have given up just one touchdown to a tight end all season. Despite these challenges, Andrews’ proven ability to excel in the red zone makes him a candidate to buck the trend and potentially become the second tight end to find the end zone against this unit.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown +210

 

TE Isiah Likely

Isiah Likely has shown flashes of potential, but his inconsistent usage makes him a challenging option to trust, especially in a tough matchup against the Eagles. While his role mirrors Mark Andrews in some ways, with Likely offering more upside as a yards-after-catch (YAC) playmaker, his lack of consistent opportunities is a concern. Over his last three games, Likely has posted a complete zero in two outings, sandwiched around a solid 4-catch, 75-yard performance. Against a Philadelphia defense that has been dominant against tight ends—allowing just 4.18 receptions and 36.9 receiving yards per game—Likely's volatile production and limited target share make him difficult to rely on. While his athleticism gives him big-play potential, his lack of consistency in this offense makes him more of a wild card in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
PASS

This matchup between the Ravens and Eagles promises to be a thrilling clash of two of the NFL's top teams, each boasting strong, balanced offenses. Philadelphia is likely to lean on its ground game, playing to its strengths despite Baltimore’s stout run defense. With a dominant offensive line and versatile backs, the Eagles have the personnel to find success on the ground while exploiting the Ravens' biggest weakness: their secondary. Though the Eagles may emphasize ball control, their passing game should find opportunities when needed against a struggling Baltimore coverage unit. On the other side, Lamar Jackson faces a much tougher challenge. Philadelphia's elite secondary and disruptive defensive front could make it difficult for the Ravens to establish their run-heavy identity or generate consistent production through the air. While Lamar has the playmaking ability to keep his team competitive, the Eagles’ defense may prove too stifling over four quarters. Ultimately, the Eagles appear better equipped to climb out of deficits, thanks to their ability to attack both through the air and on the ground. If the Ravens hope to solidify their status as a true juggernaut, they’ll need to address their coverage issues. For now, give the edge to the road team, as Philadelphia’s balance and adaptability make them more likely to prevail in this heavyweight showdown.

Best Bet (Eagles +3.5 -125)
Lean (BAL TT ‘U’ 27.5)
Eagles 24, Ravens 23

QB Brock Purdy

Before I get too deep into this game guide, allow me to preface things by stating there is a significant chance for inclement weather in Buffalo on Sunday night. Snow showers and temperatures in the high 20s or low 30s are in the forecast. As we saw last week in the Steelers-Browns Thursday night game, the weather can have a significant impact on the game. There may be no more disappointing team in the NFL than the 49ers, who sit at 5-6 after winning the NFC a year ago. Brock Purdy, however, cannot be faulted too badly. He has an 8.54 YPA, which is the 3rd highest in the NFL among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks. Buffalo has been excellent in the secondary on the other end, allowing only 6.69 YPA against on the year, as well as 13 defensive interceptions. The Bills are in zone coverage on 73.0% of their defensive snaps, which is 9th most in the NFL. Purdy has been better against zone than man, which is good news for him. His 9.50 YPA is the 2nd highest in the NFL when seeing zone coverage. What does scare me in this particular matchup, however, given the snow is his unwillingness to check the ball down, as he has just a 10.9 CHK% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Given the forecast and the strength of this Bills defense, this is a spot for an under for Purdy.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 223.5  Pass Yards (-110)

RB Christian McCaffery

McCaffrey has not been in his typical form since coming back from injury. He has no explosive runs out of any of his 43 rush attempts, and also is only averaging 3.5 YPC, which is well on pace to be his career low. But before we close the curtains on McCaffrey, we have to remember the Niners are still nursing him back into game shape, and I think we can only expect his performance to go up from here, although it is uncertain as to how soon he can get back to the form of CMC a year ago, or even at all. One place that McCaffrey has not slacked since coming back is in the passing game, as he has a 17% target share this season, which is incredibly impressive out of a RB. As mentioned earlier, the Bills are in zone coverage on 73.0% of their snaps, which is the 9th most in the league. It is unlikely the Niners will want to test the Bills down field given their strength as a secondary on deep passes, and opponents have only a 6.9 aDOT against them (3rd fewest in the NFL), this opens up the opportunity for Purdy to use McCaffrey often in the passing game with safer throws in the tough conditions against this zone-heavy Bills defense.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 4.5  Receptions (+126)

WR Deebo Samuel

It has been a disappointing year to say the least for Deebo Samuel, and the culmination of it was last week where he sat for a segment of the second half vs. the Packers in their blowout loss. Samuel is frequently used in a variety of ways in the passing game and the rushing game, and I could see that coming in handy in the snowy and windy forecast that is scheduled. Samuel ranks 1st in the NFL in juke rate at 23.0%, and that could prove to be a test for a Bills defense that otherwise is great in tackling opoonents. His aDOT of 8.3 is nothing to laugh at, but it has been a combination of short routes and longer routes that have combined to create his mean aDOT. In this matchup, we can look for Deebo to be involved in the rushing game with his shiftiness in the snow that will exacerbate the difficulty it is to get Deebo to the ground.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 6.5 Rush Yards (-120)

TE George Kittle

In a year full of questions and uncertainty at the playmaker positions involving Aiyuk, Deebo, and CMC/Jordan Mason, George Kittle has been the lone constant. He has seen the field on 89.2% of the offensive snaps for the 49ers, which is the second most among NFL TEs. He also been targeted 25.5% of those snaps, which 11th among TEs, and a target share of 36.2% in the red zone. These red zone numbers are exactly where I am looking in this matchup, as Kittle also leads the NFL for TEs with 17 targets and 15 receptions in the red zone. He has 8 TDs on the season in total, and against a Buffalo defense that has just been ok against TEs they should be looking for him in the end zone.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+275)

QB Josh Allen

Allen has been solid both through the air and on the ground this season, although his numbers have regressed slightly from where they were both earlier in the season and in past MVP caliber years. Still, Allen ranks above average in terms of a 7.50 YPA, ranking 14th out of 44 NFL QBs with at least 50 dropbacks, as well as only throwing 18 TDs to just 5 INTs. He also is having another great year on the ground, having 236 rush yards on 30 scrambles, which ranks 7th in the NFL. San Francisco defensively lines up in Cover 4 quite often, although it will be interesting to see if they go with a more aggressive approach with the snow. The Niners are in Cover 4 on 20.8% of defensive snaps, which is the 6th highest rate in the NFL. This could allow Allen in these conditions to use his feet and take 5-6 yards on the ground, relying on his feet earlier than he typically would. Look for Allen to take to the ground often, especially against a Niners defense that has struggled stopping rushing QBs at times this year, with Darnold, Kyler, Mahomes, and Geno Smith all busting off some long runs against them this year. Allen is also without several key receiving options this week in Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, and with Amari Cooper questionable.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 7.5 Rush Attempts (+105)
‘O’ 35.5 Rush Yards (-120)

RB James Cook

The Bills are playing in a Sunday night game coming off a bye. Situations like that are ideal for RB1s, as they often are unleashed with the amount of rest they have gotten. Add that with the snow in the forecast in Buffalo and we can imagine the Bills will want to keep it on the ground. On the season, the 49ers have been good in defending the run, with only a 4.22 YPC allowed. However, this is not considering the amount of injuries that the team is currently dealing with defensively. Javon Hargave has been out for some time, and they are at risk of playing without Jordan Elliott, Kevin Givens and Nick Bosa in this matchup. Cook has been an efficient back as well, averaging 4.35 YPC, which ranks 30th out of 75 RBs with at least 25 rush attempts. With the weather the way it is and still a respectable rush defense on the other side from San Francisco, yards can be a bit of a question, but I do not think there is any question about the amount of volume we can expect from Cook in this matchup.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 15.5 Rush Attempts (+105)

WR Khalil Shakir

There are many injuries the Bills are dealing with right now, but perhaps none is bigger than Keon Coleman, which leaves Khalil Shakir as the undisputed number one option on this Bills team. Keon Coleman has had many nice moments as a rookie WR this year, but Shakir has been the constant that actually leads this team in yards per route run at 2.48, and has been incredibly sure handed with an impressive 87.5% catch rate, which is one of the highest rates among top WRs in the league. The Bills receivers have struggled a bit against the Cover 4 formation that the Niners will throw out often, but Shakir has been the exception, maintaining a 2.36 YPRR alone that is far and away the highest among Bills WRs. The volume all things considered should be very high for Shakir, unfortunately for him I do see the Bills keeping it primarily on the ground, but Shakir is still a player to keep an eye on.

Suggested Play:
Pass

WR Amari Cooper

If Cooper plays, that will be key in providing Allen with another key option at WR. However, he is dealing with a wrist injury and his status is questionable. He has not, however been too efficient against Cover 4 defense, with only a 0.62 YPRR against it. He is a deep threat WR, and his aDOT against Cover 4 remains an incredible 20.5 on the season despite only bringing in 2 catches all year against it. If he is acting as a deep WR that he typically is, and also factoring in the possibility that he does not see a full workload if he does play, this is a great fade spot on Cooper in the snow and against a defense that looks to take away exactly what Amari Cooper does best. The Bills are solid favorites here, which means there is really no need to test deep often. If Cooper has a big game in this spot, he will have to revert from his typical game plan, but that seems unlikely to happen.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Dawson Knox

Dalton Kincaid is out for the Bills in this game, and although Kincaid overall is the number one TE for this Bills team, this matchup for Knox against the 49ers would be a sneaky good matchup for him anyway. When the 49ers have sold out to stop deep passes through their Cover 4 formations and dropping the safeties deep, this has opened up for opportunities for the tight end position on intermediate routes. Knox is an example of a guy who can do that exactly, with a 10.1 aDOT and a solid 66.7% catch rate, which is higher than Kincaid who has a lower aDOT at just 8.0. Knox is a sure-handed option, which certainly can come in handy playing in the wind and snow. Look for Allen to make it a point to get his TE the ball, especially an experienced one like Knox.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (+105)

 

Case of two teams headed in the opposite directions here, and for the 49ers this is a tough task to travel across the country and suit up in the snow while already reeling as a team. This offense has found no answers, and to play the Buffalo defense in these conditions is a brutal task. It seems as if the books are giving the 49ers some respect likely due to the conditions, but in my opinion it’s way too much respect.

Best Bet: Bills -5.5 -125
Lean: Under 44.5 -110
Bills 27 49ers 13

QB Jameis Winston

Famous Jameis is quietly 3-1 since taking over as the starter in Cleveland. In those games, he's averaging 295.8 passing yards per game, having topped 215 in all four games and 330 in two of the four. However, this Broncos pass defence will be his toughest matchup yet. The Broncos allow the ninth fewest passing yards (217.9) despite allowing the ninth most completions (22.4) and the sixth-most pass attempts (34.3). This Denver pass defence runs through Patrick Surtain II. He was injured on his first snap against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6, was ruled out with a concussion, which also held him out for Week 7. In that game, they allowed Herbert to throw for 237 passing yards, which was the highest of his season up to that point. The following week, they allowed Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener to combine for 210 passing yards. So now that he's back, he's it will be a tougher matchup for Jameis. However, the volume should still be there, as given the Broncos have been winning games, teams are needing to throw against them. Jameis has had over 40 pass attempts in three of his four starts; with his lone low-volume game was in a snowstorm and he still managed to throw the ball 27 times. Denver has allowed opposing QBs to throw 35+ times in four of their last six games.

Suggested Pick:
Jameis Winston o34.5 Pass Attempts

 

RB Nick Chubb

It's been a rough return for Chubb on the ground. But him even returning after the catestrophic knee injury he sustained last season. He's yet to eclipse 60 rushing yards in any of his five games, despite seeing heavy usage with 15+ rush attempts in three of those five games, averaging 14.6 per game. Now, this Broncos run defence is solid, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards (78.8) to RBs per game. Where they really struggle is to pass catching running backs, but Chubb has just three receptions on seven targets for seven receiving yards this season, and isn't really used in the pass game. Denver runs zone concept 48.3% of the time, and allow a 3.52 yards per carry –– compared to 3.93 in man/gap. Chubb struggles against zone, as he yards per carry 3.28 yards per carry. Given the point spread and coming off a huge win last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this could be a tough matchup for the Browns as a whole, and they might throw away their game plan in the run game and lean on Winston's arm more than Chubb's legs. Chubb has gone under this line in four of five games this season.

Suggested Pick:
Nick Chubb u56.5 Rush Yards (-110)

 

RB Jerome Ford

As we mentioned, the Broncos struggle against receiving running backs, and that's what Ford has stepped up to become. Since Chubb has returned, he's seen his volume on the ground dip, but his receiving has increased, averaging nine of his receptions in just those five games. He leads the running back room in targets (31), receptions (26) and receiving yards (126) this season. The Broncos allow the fourth-most receptions per game (5.8) and the sixth-most receiving yards (41.8) to the position this season. We would lean Ford receptions, however, he doesn't have a line, so we'll take his receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:
Jerome Ford o12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Jerry Jeudy

Did somebody say revenge game? Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Cleveland Browns this offseason, and if I'm honest, as a Broncos fan, I was devastated. It took Jeudy a little while to get acclimated in this offence, but once Amari Cooper was traded and Jameis Winston came in, Jeudy has been fantastic. In the four starts with Winston, Jeudy has recorded 70+ receiving yards in all four games, topping out at 142 yards two weeks ago against the New Orleans Saints. However, the matchup doesn't bode well for Jeudy, as the Broncos are tough against opposing WRs. They allow the seventh-fewest receiving yards (132.5) but the 16th-most receptions (11.5) to WRs. Denver is great at limiting yards, allowing the third-fewest yards per route run (1.31), yards per target (7.01) and yards per reception (9.81). They don't often get tested deep down the field, as they average the second-fewest aDoT (6.9) in the entire league. Which doesn't look great for Jeudy, as he has the highest aDoT on this Browns team at 13.1. Jeudy lines up on the outside 70% of his snaps, 60% being on the right side. According to FantasyPoints.com, Jeudy is projected to draw and get shadowed by the intimidating Pat Surtain matchup. While it's a fun narrative to want to play the revenge angle, Jeudy might not have as much fun. Surtain has the single highest PFF defensive grade across the entire NFL. Opposing QBs have picked up on the fact Surtain is so good, because he just really isn't targeted often. He's been targeted just 32 times this season, allowing 23 receptions but just 177 receiving yards. To outside WRs, the Broncos allow the 10th-highest catch rate, but seventh-fewest receiving yards per game (). While it could be a big volume day for Jeudy, it's not likely to amount ot a big yardage day, despite his recent performance.

Suggested Pick:
Jerry Jeudy u57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

WR Elijah Moore

On the other hand, Elijah Moore might be the one who has the best game in this matchup. Moore is very much the possession receiver in this offence, having 42 receptions on 63 targets but only 336 receiving yards. That works out to an average of just eight yards per reception. Since Winston took over, Moore has been used much more often, as he's got 20 receptions for 200 receiving yards and one TD. Looking at the numbers and seeing Moore have a lot of receptions but not for a lot of yards indicate that he might be perfect against this Broncos defence who allows a lot of receptions but for not a lot of yards. Moore isn't fantastic against man coverage –– which the Broncos run at the second-highest rate in the NFL –– but he has a high catch rate of 73.7%. Moore lines up in the slot 60% of the time, and will often draw the Ja'Quan McMillian matchup. McMillian is heavily targeted. He has been targeted 72 times this season, allowing 54 receptions for a 75% catch rate. Over the past three weeks, McMillian has allowed 17 receptions on 21 targets, with being targeted 8+ times in the previous two weeks. Against slot WRs, Denver allows the third-lowest aDoT (7.2) but are targeted at the ninth most (122), which should play as an advantage for Moore, who averages a low 9.0 aDoT.

Suggested Pick:
Elijah Moore 4+ Receptions (-170)

 

TE David Njoku

It's been a bit of a down season for Njoku, who has 40 receptions for 345 receiving yards and two TDs. Since Winston took over, he's only really exploded once, coming in a game two weeks ago against the New Orleans Saints, where Njoku had nine receptions for 81 receiving yards. The Broncos allow the ninth-fewest receiving yards (43.6) to TEs this season, but they are still heavily targeted, averaging the sixth-most targets at 7.7 for 5.3 receptions per game. Njoku isn't a man coverage killer, as he struggles to create separation, having been targeted just 11 times against the coverage this season. Now, he's caught eight of those balls, but its disappointing to see him struggle against the coverage with his frame. Njoku lines up inline 54.2% of the time. The Broncos allow the eighth-lowest catch rate (75%) but the sixth-most targets to inline receivers. While the production might not be there, the volume should and Njoku should see at least five receptions, a feat he's hit in five of the last six games.

Suggested Pick:
David Njoku o4.5 Receptions (-170)

QB Bo Nix

The first half of the season Jayden Daniels had run away with offensive rookie of the year; however, Bo Nix has firmly put himself in that conversation, perhaps even passing Daniels in that regard. Nix quietly sits 14th in the NFL in passing yards with 2,548, 11th in passing TDs (16) and has the 15th-highest completion percentage (68.8%) across all starting QBs to play 10 or more games this season. Lately, Nix has thrown for 200+ passing yards in five straight games and 270+ in three of those five games, including an 11-1 TD to INT ratio, with a near 70% completion percentage. The Browns pass defence has been great at limiting opposing QBs. They allow the fourth-fewest completions (18.2) and the sixth-fewest pass attempts (29) but the 19th-most passing yards (230.5) per game to QBs. Indicating that they are susceptible to the deep ball, and the stats back that up, as they allow the fourth-highest yards per attempt (7.93) and the single-highest aDoT (9.8) in the entire NFL. The Browns run man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL (42.7%). This might be tough for Nix in this matchup as he sees his completion percentage dip to just 52%, but his yards per attempt remains middle of the pack at 14th in the league. Nix should be able to succeed by throwing the ball deep in this matchup. This isn't something new for Nix either, as he has thrown a 30+ yard pass in seven straight matches and nine of his 12 games this season. Just in the previous three weeks, the Browns have allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 46 yards, Derek Carr 71 yards and Justin Herbert 66 yards. In a matchup against the Browns who really struggle at limiting the deep ball, we're going to trust the rookie to do that again. He has thrown a 34-yard pass in five straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Bo Nix o33.5 Longest Pass (-115)

 

RB Javonte Williams

This Broncos running back room has been a mess this season. It just seems to alternate who's going to do well each week. One week is Williams, the next it's Jaleel McLaughlin, with some Audric Estieme sprinkled in. But Williams still leads the RB room in rush attempts (120), rushing yards (445) and rushing TDs (3). The Browns allow the ninth-fewest rushing yards (83.6) and the sixth-fewest receiving yards () to RBs this season. However, they struggled to keep RBs out of the end zone, as they've averaged 0.91 rushing TDs per game, and at least one rushing TD in nine of their 11 games this season. However, there is no clear goal line back in Denver.  Javonte leads the group with 47.1% of the inside the five carries, but has just three rushing TD to show for it. McLaughlin is the only RB on the roster with higher than 10%, with an 11.8% inside the five percentage, with one rushing TD. With all that said, the Broncos are competing for a playoff spot and should have plenty of chances to score within the red zone and with Javonte being the leader of the club house inside the five carries, there's a high likelihood he'll find pay-dirt.

Suggested Pick:
Javonte Williams TD (+150)

 

WR Courtland Sutton

Did you know that Sutton sits top 10 in receiving yards this season? Cause I didn't. He's been surprisingly good, especially considering he's got a rookie QB under centre. Through the previous five games, Sutton has 70+ receiving yards in each game, reaching the century mark in two of those four games. And that's predicated on heavy volume. The WR has six receptions in each of those five games, having two games with seven and two games with eight, with a whopping 48 targets over that span. Now, the Browns don't allow a lot of receptions, allowing the fifth-fewest (9.9) in that regard, but the eighth-most receiving yards (157.2), which plays into what we spoke about earlier with Nix and how the Browns struggle against the deep ball. Sutton has recorded a 30+ yard reception in three of his previous five games. With Cleveland running the third-most-man coverage, this is a great matchup for Sutton as he has the highest PFF grade against the coverage, recording 20 receptions on 29 targets for 278 receiving yards with four TDs. That's good for a 69% (nice) catch rate and 13.9 yards per reception, leading the Broncos in both of those categories against the coverage. Sutton mostly runs on the outside, lining up on the left 50% of the time and 38% on the right. He will often draw the Martin Emerson matchup. Emerson is one of the most targetted CBs on the Browns, garnering 50 targets on the season, allowing 32 receptions, 416 receiving yards and four TDs, averaging 13.0 yards per reception. To outside WRs, the Browns allow the fifth-highest yards per route run (2.2) and the third-highest yards per reception (15.3). Sutton should be able to continue his recent success in this favourable matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Courtland Sutton o64.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

WR Devaughn Vele

All the hype was around rookie WR Troy Franklin this offseason given his familiarity with Nix in their college days at Oregon. However, it's been Vele who's been the better of the two rookie WRs for the Broncos. The rookie has 32 receptions on 40 targets for 361 receiving yards and one TD in eight games. He's been playing better as of late, as in his previous two games, Vele has recorded 10 receptions for 146 receiving yards. Vele is the dominant slot receiver in the Broncos' WR room, lining up as the middle-of-the-field target in 70% of his passing snaps. He will often draw the Greg Newsome matchup. Newsome has been allowing a high catch rate since Week 5, allowing 21 receptions on 27 targets for 317 receiving yards over that span. The Browns are middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards per game to slot WRs, allowing the 14th-most receiving yards (78.8) to the position per game but the third-lowest catch rate (64.6%). Playing in a volume position, we don't love this matchup for Vele.

Suggested Pick:
Devaughn Vele u3.5 Receptions (-160)

 

TE Adam Trautman

Much like the Broncos this season, we aren't going to take a deep look into Trautman in this matchup. He has nine receptions on 15 targets for 158 receiving yards this season with one touchdown. He has a high yards per reception this season at 17.6, having two of his nine receptions going for 30+ yards, but he's a major non-factor in this offence. Even in this matchup against the Browns, there isn't an advantage as they rank in the middle of the pack in receiving yards (50.4) allowed to TEs.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

It was a great win for Winston and the Browns last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers; however, I just can't see this team playing spoiler by beating two playoff teams in back to back weeks. The Broncos have been rolling, winning four of their last six weeks, and also covering the spread in all four of their wins. Expect the same this week in a low scoring affair.

Pick: Under 41.5 -120
Lean: Broncos -65.5 -130
Broncos 24 - Browns 14