QB Matthew Stafford

Stafford is averaging 254 passing yards per game, 7.52 YPA, a 66.7% completion rate and has thrown 19 TDs. He’ll face a 49ers defense that allows only 197 passing yards per game, 2^nd least in the NFL. They have also allowed the 11^th fewest passing TDs (17). The 49ers have forced the 2^nd lowest pass rate over expected, they have been a true run funnel. They play single-high at a 55.5% frequency and zone at a 70% rate. When these 2 teams played week 3 earlier this season, the 49ers ran two-high 55.2% of the time and zone 69%. Puka and Kupp were inactive in this contest, so probably isn’t too much to read into. Stafford averages 7.09 YPA, a 70.3% completion rate and a 102.8 QB rating against two-high. That compares to 7.86 YPA, a 64% completion rate and a 92.2 QB rating against single-high. Against zone coverage, Stafford averages 8.03 YPA, a 75.5% completion rate and a 100.3 QB rating. That compares to 7.51 YPA, a 54.9% completion rate and a 90.9 QB rating against man. Stafford is averaging 278.5 passing yards and 2.1 passing TDs per game with both Kupp and Nacua, so despite a tougher matchup, he may still have success.

Suggested Pick
“O” 242.5 Pass Yds (-114)

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams is 7^th in the league in rushing yards per game (77.9) on an inefficient 4.04 YPC. He has also rushed for 12 TDs, 2^nd most behind Derrick Henry. The 49ers are allowing the 12^th least rushing yards per game (115.9) on the 11^th fewest YPC (4.33). They have however allowed the 2^nd most rushing TDs behind only Dallas (19). The 49ers are forcing the 2^nd highest rush rate over expected in the NFL, so we could see increased volume for Kyren. Coming into a short week, we may want to be cautious as the RB2 typically gets more work. Corum has seen 8 attempts in back-to-back weeks, and he’s looked pretty good, averaging over 4 YPC in 5 straight weeks. Kyren has a 50-50 split in terms of zone vs man/gap rush concepts. He’s seen more success in man/gap concepts, with a 55.9% success rate, compared to a 46% success rate in zone concepts. This plays into the 49ers relative weakness, as they allow a 51.6% success rate and 4.64 YPC against man/gap concepts compared to 3.72 YPC and a 45.8% success rate against zone concepts. Low line for Kyren currently, as he’s covered his 68.5 rush yard line in 10 of his last 11 games.

Suggested Pick
“O” 68.5 Rush Yds (-120)
80+ Rush Yds (+130)
90+ Rush Yds (+210)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka has been unreal, averaging 88.5 receiving yards per game, 3.52 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 37% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team behind Cooper Kupp in 1^st-read rate (31.5%), but in the last 2 weeks he’s had a 47.7% 1^st-read rate compared to Kupp’s 27.3%. He’ll face a 49ers defense allowing the 3^rd least receiving yards and the 13^th fewest receiving TDs to WR. The 49ers allow the least YPRR (1.44) and the 12^th highest target share (42%) to wide alignment. Puka has lined up out wide on 68.7% of his routes. The 49ers play single-high at a 55.5% frequency and zone at a 70% rate. When these 2 teams played week 3 earlier this season, the 49ers ran two-high 55.2% of the time and zone 69%. Puka and Kupp were inactive in this contest, so probably isn’t too much to read into. The 49ers top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (32.6%) and Cover 1 (22.9%). Puka averages an insane 4.56 YPRR and has been targeted on 44% of his routes against these two coverages. Puka’s receiving lines feel sharp, but I think there’s value in his Anytime TD at +120, as he has 4 in his last 4 games.

Suggested Pick
Anytime TD (+120)

WR Cooper Kupp

Kupp is averaging 73 receiving yards per game, 2.39 YPRR and he’s been targeted on 32% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 35.1%, but in the past 2 weeks trails Puka 27.3% to 47.7%. He’ll face a 49ers defense allowing the 3^rd least receiving yards and the 13^th fewest receiving TDs to WR. The 49ers allow the 12^th highest YPRR (1.92) and the 8^th lowest target share (30.1%) to the slot. Kupp has lined up in the slot on 66.5% of his routes. The 49ers play single-high at a 55.5% frequency and zone at a 70% rate. When these 2 teams played week 3 earlier this season, the 49ers ran two-high 55.2% of the time and zone 69%. Puka and Kupp were inactive in this contest, so probably isn’t too much to read into. The 49ers top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (32.6%) and Cover 1 (22.9%). Kupp averages 2.19 YPRR and has been targeted on 33% of his routes against these 2 coverages.

Suggested Pick
“O” 62.5 Rec Yds (-114)
“O” 5.5 Rec (-138)
70+ Rec Yds (+120)
80+ Rec Yds (+190)

QB Brock Purdy

Purdy is averaging 253 passing yards per game, 8.69 YPA, a 66.8% completion rate and a QB rating of 98.7. He’ll face a Rams defense that’s allowing the 8^th most passing yards per game (243) and the 7^th most passing TDs (23). The Rams are towards the middle of the pack in pressure, ranking 13^th in pressure rate over expected. They have played single-high at a 55.3% rate and allow the most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also play zone at a 74% rate and allow the 2^nd most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. When these 2 teams played earlier in season week 3, the Rams played single-high at a 50% rate and zone at a 71.1% rate, close to their season averages. Purdy averages 9.21 YPA, a 66.1% completion rate and a 95.5 QB rating against single-high. That compares to 8.17 YPA, a 67.4% completion rate and a 101.8 QB rating against two-high. Against zone, Purdy averages 9.55 YPA, a 73% completion rate and a 104.6 QB rating. That compares to 7.36 YPA, a 56.3% completion rate and a 76.4 QB rating against man. Outside of the blizzard game against the Bills, Purdy is over his passing yards line in 8 of 11 games.

Suggested Pick
“O” 241.5 Pass Yds (-120)
275+ Pass Yds (+188)

RB Patrick Taylor

The 49ers RB carousel continues, as rookie RB Isaac Guerendo made his first start last week after the McCaffrey and Jordan Mason injuries. He had an excellent game, rushing for 78 yards and 2 TDs, and added 50 receiving yards in the passing game. However, he left in the 4^th quarter due to a foot injury. With the short week, it’s unlikely that Guerendo will be able to suit up. That puts Patrick Taylor in position as the likely candidate as RB1 for the 49ers this week. He ran for 25 yards on 3.57 YPC and ran for a TD last weekend. There’s not too many statistics to go by with Taylor, as he has yet to start a game as the lead back and this could be more of a committee if SF decides to activate newly signed Israel Abanikanda or practice squad RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Whoever gets the bulk of the carries gets a nice matchup against the Rams, who allow the 5^th most rushing yards per game (141) and the 9^th most YPC (4.68).

Suggested Pick
Line not up (upside for huge game)

WR Jauan Jennings

In weeks that Jauan has a 70%+ snap share, he is averaging an elite 90.8 receiving yards per game, 3.24 YPRR and has been targeted on 31% of his routes. He has an elite 36.9% 1^st-read rate, looking like a true WR1 when given the opportunity. He has split his time out wide and in the slot in these weeks, at a 58.9% and 41.1% frequency respectively. The Rams allow the 2^nd most YPRR and the 17^th highest target share to wide alignment. They allow the 6^th lowest YPRR and the 6^th lowest target share to the slot. The Rams have played single-high at a 55.3% rate and allow the most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also play zone at a 74% rate and allow the 2^nd most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. When these 2 teams played earlier in season week 3, the Rams played single-high at a 50% rate and zone at a 71.1% rate, close to their season averages. Against single-high, Jauan averages 2.39 YPRR and a 26% TPRR. Those are negative splits compared to his 3.36 YPRR and 29% TPRR against two-high. Against zone, Jauan averages 3.19 YPRR and 29% TPRR. Those are positive splits compared to man, where he averages 2.5 YPRR and 27% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“O” 68.5 Rec Yds (-115)
80+ Rec Yds (+170)
Anytime TD (+150)

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo has had a down season, averaging 46.1 receiving yards per game, 1.83 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He has lined up out wide on 59.6% and in the slot on 34.4% of his routes. The Rams allow the 2^nd most YPRR and the 17^th highest target share to wide alignment. They allow the 6^th lowest YPRR and the 6^th lowest target share to the slot. The Rams have played single-high at a 55.3% rate and allow the most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also play zone at a 74% rate and allow the 2^nd most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. When these 2 teams played earlier in season week 3, the Rams played single-high at a 50% rate and zone at a 71.1% rate, close to their season averages. Against single-high, Deebo averages 1.98 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Those are positive splits compared to two-high, where he averages 1.7 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Deebo averages 1.84 YPRR and 20% TPRR against zone coverage, negative splits compared to his 2.02 YPRR and 24% TPRR against man. After failing to go over 25 receiving yards in 4 straight games, Deebo went to X, “Not struggling at all just not getting the ball!!!!!!”. It will be interesting to see if the 49ers give him more looks as a result.

Suggested Pick
“U” 49.5 Rec Yds (-114)

TE George Kittle

Kittle has had a stellar season, averaging 72.7 receiving yards per game, 2.91 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. The Rams allow the 13^th most receiving yards and 7^th least receiving TDs to TE. Kittle has lined up inline on 53.5% and in the slot on 34.2% of his routes. The Rams allow the 6^th highest YPRR and the 5^th highest target share to inline. They allow the 6^th lowest YPRR and the 6^th lowest target share to the slot. The Rams have played single-high at a 55.3% rate and allow the most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. They also play zone at a 74% rate and allow the 2^nd most fantasy points per drop back in this scheme. When these 2 teams played earlier in season week 3, the Rams played single-high at a 50% rate and zone at a 71.1% rate, close to their season averages. Against single-high, Kittle averages 3.11 YPRR and 22% TPRR. More efficient on less targets compared to two-high, where he averages 2.72 YPRR and 26% TPRR. Against zone, Kittle averages 3.07 YPRR and 24% TPRR. Those are positive splits compared to man, where he averages 2.14 YPRR and 19% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“O” 54.5 Rec Yds (-114)
70+ Rec Yds (+165)

Both teams are coming off a win and fighting for a playoff spot. The Rams are 7-6 and the 49ers are 6-7, with the Seahawks leading the division at 8-5. The Rams are coming off a thrilling victory against the Bills, so this could be a let down spot. The 49ers on the other hand are forced to play on a short week decimated with injuries. Both offenses are coming off 38 and 44 monster performances. I expect to see another shootout in this one. McVay is 8-1 on a short week, so as 3-point underdogs and an injured SF team, I’ll take the Rams with the points.

Best Bet (Over 48.5)
Lean (Rams +2.5)
Rams 30 49ers 27

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (SF) Jauan Jennings +150
Jauan had 2 TDs last week and 3 TDs earlier this season when these 2 teams matched up. The Rams are allowing the 3^rd most receiving TDs per game to WRs (1.31). At +150 and Jauan being the clear number 1 receiver since the injury to Brandon Aiyuk, I see a ton of value.

Longshot: (LAR) Blake Corum +550
Corum has seen 8 carries in back-to-back weeks and may see extra work on the margin considering the short week. He’s been efficient, running for over 4 YPC in 5 straight games. This could be the game he breaks out against a divisional rival.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (SF) Patrick Taylor +500
Patrick Taylor is likely to be the lead back with Guerendo leaving early in the 4^th quarter last game. The 49ers love to establish the run game early, so I see value at +500 on the RB1 for the home team scoring first.

Longshot: (LAR) Puka Nacua +750
Puka has been incredible this season and has 4 TDs in the past 4 games. Last time he played against the 49ers, he scored a first quarter TD. This is a bullish matchup as highlighted in my write up earlier, like the value at +750.

QB Lamar Jackson 
The Ravens come into this one losing 2/L3 games and in these games Lamar has thrown for just 207,177,237 passing yards. Today he faces the Giants who allow the 6th FEWEST passing yards per game (213.7) but that is because they are behind most of the time and teams just pound the ground and drain the clock. They have allowed the 2nd fewest passing attempts. The Giants over the last 6 weeks have ran a ton of man coverage running it at the 9th HIGHEST rate during this stretch (31.4%). They also run a ton of single high running it at the 3rd HIGHEST rate (65.4%). Now with that being said Lamar against man has a 99.9 QBR having 8 TD’s and 3 INT’s while averaging 8.10 YPA. Against Single High he has been damn good having a 109.5 QBR having 12 TD’s and 2 INT’s averaging 8.97 YPA. One thing that has stuck out to be in Lamar’s mom said in his last game against the Eagles that she would like to see him take off and run more! That could be a good idea against the Giants who allow the 3rd MOST rushing yards to opposing QB’s. Lamar against Man Coverage 7 scrambles for 76 yards compared against man compared to 26 for 213 against Zone which is concerning coming into this matchup. Also Jackson averages 64.3 rushing yards per game in losses compared to just 50.1 in Wins. 

Suggested Picks
PASS 

RB Derrick Henry 
Oh boy this guy could be in for a HUGE week! The Giants have allowed 3rd most YPC (4.97) and the 9th most attempts. Over the last 6 weeks they have been better allowing (4.24 YPC) but teams have still ran the 7th most attempts on them during this stretch and they have allowed an explosive run% of 7.8% which is the HIGHEST of any team and allowing the MOST yards after contact which is concerning for them coming into this game facing Henry runs who has the MOST yards after contact this season. Also Rico Dowdle just went for 22 carries and 112 yards against this Giants defense so if the Cowboys terrible offensive rushing attack can do can do that Henry can POP off! Also as said in the Jackson article the Giants will run a ton of Man Coverage and Henry runs averages 5.44 YPC against man 

Suggested Picks 
‘O’ 96.5 Rushing Yards
‘O’ Long Rush (Line not out) 

RB Justice Hill 
I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. The Ravens are -14.5 point favorites and a blowout is very likely here. With that being said Hill could see an increase in usage if the game gets out of hand. On games this season when the Ravens have won by 10+ points he has averaged 4.66 rushing attempts with 12.3 rushing yards to show for it. He will be facing a Giants team that is vulnerable to explosive runs so all it takes is 1 breakout. Now where it gets interesting is in the receiving game as in the 3 games when the Ravens have won by 10+ he goes on to have 3,3,6 receptions for a ridiculous 43,44,77 receiving yards. Now the Giants will run a lot of man coverage and Single high which is a concern as Hill averages 1.32 YPRR against single/close compared to 1.93 YPRR against two/high. Also against zone coverage he averages 1.89 YPRR compared to 1.06 YPRR against man. It is worth taking though if his receiving yards line in below 15.5.
Suggested Pick
‘O’ Long Rush
‘O’ Receiving Yards 

WR Zay Flowers 
Flowers has been consistently getting targets having 6+ in 6 straight games. With this game possibly getting of reach I would suggest backing these receivers to execute early. The Giants over the last 6 weeks have ran a ton of man coverage running it at the 9th HIGHEST rate during this stretch (31.4%). They also run a ton of single high running it at the 3rd HIGHEST rate (65.4%). Now with that being said Flowers leads the team in target% (24%) and first read rate (26%) having 2.13 YPRR against man coverage. He also leads the team in target % (27.7%) and first read rate (31.1%) against single high having a ridiculous 3.01 YPRR. Now as I said I think his receiving yards line is extremely low and should get it it’s because of the possible blowout which is a little concerning. With that being said I like Flowers to have a SOLID 1Q. Flowers has a 30.9% Target% in the 1Q having 16 receptions in 13 games averaging 15.69 YPR. The Giants in the 1Q the last 6 weeks have ran Cover 3 (30.2%) and Cover 1 (27.9%). Flowers averages a ridiculous 4.86 YPRR in the 1Q against the Giants top 2 coverage types. Look for him to have a solid day but especially in the 1st quarter. Also Dionte Johnson is out! 

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 1Q Rec Yds 

WR Rashod Bateman 
Bateman was nowhere to be found last week against a very good Eagles defense but in his 4 weeks prior he saw 3,6,2,2 receptions having 25,54,30,43 receiving yards. This week Dionte Johnson is out so Bateman could see a huge increased workload. The Giants over the last 6 weeks have ran a ton of man coverage running it at the 9th HIGHEST rate during this stretch (31.4%). They also run a ton of single high running it at the 3rd HIGHEST rate (65.4%). Bateman averaged 1.55 YPRR against man compared to 1.93 YPRR against Zone. Bateman gets those long balls but it’s normally against team that run zone coverage which could be an issue at the Giants have run a pretty heavy dose of man. Bateman lines up in the wideout 92.1% of his routes ran this season and the Giants allow the 12th HIGHEST YPRR against wideout receivers 2.01. With the blowout a decent possibility I think this is a boom or bust. Bateman can get one over the top but it’s concerning that the Giants have allowed the 9th FEWEST receptions for an aDOT 15+ downfield. 

Suggested Pick
PASS 

TE Mark Andrew’s 
Andrew’s is coming off a 6 reception 67 yard game which is the 2nd highest on the season behind his Week 10 performance against the Bengals putting up 68 yards on 6 receptions. Mark Andrews on the season has lined up in the Slot 63.8% Inline 20.5% and Wideout 15.7% but one thing that needs to be paid attention to was last week against the Eagles he ran out of the Slot 81.5%! Andrew’s on the season has averaged 12.9 receiving yards in the 1H compared to 24.7 receiving yards in the 2H. With this game being a possible blowout that could mean limited chances for Andrew’s who has been better in the 2H. Now the Giants on the season allow the 4th LOWEST YPRR to opposing slot receivers in the 1H 1.53 but in the 2nd half they allow the 5th MOST YPRR to them 2.22. Now as said above the Giants have increased their man coverage usage over the last 6 weeks and also run a ton of single high running it at the 3rd HIGHEST rate (65.4%). Mark Andrew’s averages 2.33 YPRR against man compared to 1.86 YPRR against Zone. He also averages 1.88 YPRR against Single/Closed compared to 2.00 YPRR against two high. The Giants over the L6 weeks have ran Cover 3 (34.6%) and Cover 1 (29.5%). Andrews averages just 1.19 YPRR against Cover 3 and 2.52 YPRR against Cover 1. This is a spot where he could have decent game but not really rely on ton a ton of production. With that being said though the Eagles were a defense that allowed the 4th LOWEST YPRR to slot receivers so if he clued have a big day against them why couldn’t he do it again?! One of those spots that is just hard to predict on what kind of production we are going to get 

Suggested Pick 
PASS 

QB Tommy Devito 
It looks like Giants are expected to go back to Tommy Devito after Lock got hurt with an enjoy injury. He had  a bad performance last week completing just 21/49 passes for 227 yards and 1 INT against the Saints who have been bad overall on the season allowing the 5th most passing yards. Now today Devito gets lucky and faces a Ravens passing defense that has been brutal this year allowing the MOST passing yards per game 283.6 while allowing 1.52 YPRR which is the 13th most. Over the last 5 weeks the Ravens have ran the 8th most man coverage at 31.7% running and besides that they throw the kitchen sink at you running 4 coverages above 10+%. Now his passing yards line is set at 178.5 and in his 1 start this season against Tampa Bay he threw for 189 yards on 31 attempts (who have allowed the 4th most passing yards on the season). There is really not much to go off on this one and over the last 2 seasons when Devito passes 24+ times he has had 179+ passing yards in 3/5 games. Now his rushing yards line is set at 22.5 and in his last start he went for 32 yards on 7 attempts but that was against a Buccaneers team that pressures at the 7th HIGHEST rate and allow the 3rd most rushing yards to opposing QB’s. This week that is not the case as the Ravens pressure at the 10th lowest rate and allow the 6th fewest rushing yards per game to opposing QB’s. This is all and all a very weird line and I’m not touching it but if I had to pick I would go over passing yards and under rushing yards 

Suggested Pick 
‘U’ 22.5 Rush Yds -115
‘O’ 178.5 Pass Yds -115

RB Tyrone Tracy 
This is something I’m not going to talk about for long. He has had 42,32,45 rushing yards the last 3 weeks now he faces a Ravens defense who allow the FEWEST rushing yards per game (82.7) to go with the LOWEST YPC per game as 16.5 point underdogs…. In his 1 game with Devito under center he ran just 9 times in a 30-7 loss. I’m expected something similar today and him not do much damage. Now something that could be good is his receiving prop. In his only start with Devito he had 4 targets for 28 yards against the Buccaneers who have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to backfield receivers to go with the 7th most receptions. Today he faces the Ravens who have been vulnerable to backfield receivers allowing the MOST receiving yards per game (41.6) whole allowing the 6th most receptions. Last week he saw 10 targets and had 38 receiving yards which is something that can’t be ignored!

Suggest Pick
‘U’ 45.5 Rush Yds
‘U’ 12.5 Rush Att -120
‘O’ 18.5 Rec Yds -120
25+ Rec Yds +145

WR Malik Nabers 
Nabers comes into this week questionable but I’m not concerned as he was last week and even reports of him being limited but he went on to play 94% of snaps. Nabers has been a guy who has consistently gotten targeted a ton averaging a ridiculous 11.5 targets per game to go with 74.5 receiving yards per game. In his 1 game with Devito he had 64 receiving yards on 9 targets while having 6 receptions. Now over the last 5 weeks he has ran out of the wideout 77.5% of the time and the Ravens have been vulnerable to wideout receivers allowing the 2nd MOST receiving yards per game (124.5). It’s hard ti break down by coverage because the Ravens throw everything at you but they have ran the 8th most man coverage over the last 5 weeks and he averages 2.42 YPRR against man coverage which leads the team. He also has a ridiculous 42.7% 1st read rate against man and that is something that needs to be paid attention to as the Ravens have allowed the 4th 1st read and designed targets 

Suggested Pick 
60+ Rec Yds -120

WR Wan’Dale Robinson 

Last week he saw a ridiculous 11 targets and that was a great matchup with his style of play against the Saints….Robinson is literally a guy who gets a ton of short passes and actually has the LOWEST aDOT with 4.4 out of the 56 receivers that have ran 300+ routes. Robinson over the last 5 games has ran out of the slot 79.7% of the time and the Saints and allowed the 12th most receptions to slot receivers and were vulnerable to those checkdown type of passes to slot receivers. when the ball is thrown for -3/5 yards down field to the slot receiver they have allowed the 4th HIGHEST YPRR (1.60) allowing 37 receptions #18/30 (Not bad) When they allow a reception they normally get beat for some yards allowing ridiculous 7.62 YPR which is the 6th HIGHEST and allowing the 3rd most yards after contact! Today they face the Ravens who are honestly just like the Saints allowing the 16th most receptions to slot receivers and when the ball is thrown for -3/5 yards down field to the slot receiver they have allowed the 11th HIGHEST YPRR (1.44) allowing 40 receptions #19/30 (Not bad) When they allow a reception they normally get beat for some yards allowing ridiculous 7.78 YPR which is the 3rd HIGHEST while allowing the FEWEST yards after contact meaning there is a lot of green grass most of the time when the receivers catches a pass. In his 1 start with Devito he saw 5 targets and had 47 receiving yards. I think he can find success in this matchup 

Suggested Pick 
‘O’ 32.5 Rec Yds -110

TE Daniel Bellinger 
Last week his line opened up at 11.5 and he went on to have 5 receptions on 7 targets and was 4th on the team in routes ran with 44 having 45 receiving yards. He saw aDOT of 5 which was the lowest in the team excluding RB Tyrone Tracy. He lined up in the slot 54.5% of the time and that is where 2 of his receptions came from with an aDOT of 4.5. He lined up in the inline 36.4% of the time and had 2 reception out of there as well. Now above you can read the matchup he has against the don’t which is pretty damn good but they have been REALLY bad against inline receivers allowing the 3rd MOST YPRR with 2.36 while allowing the 2nd MOST receptions and the 2nd highest catch rate at 88.5%. This is a spot where Bellinger could excel in the Slot or Inline which leads me to believe him to be a sleeper to put up another great game

Suggested Pick 
ALT Rec Yds Line (If line is below 22.5) 

I think 16.5 points is a ton but I think the Giants are facing the Ravens at the wrong time. They have ost 2/L3 and will be eager to get back to playing Ravens football. I hate that this game is on the road but the Giants have had losses of 22,25,23 @Home this year so A blowout will not be a shock. I think this total goes over and the Ravens win by 20+ here 

Best Bet: Ravens -16.5 -110
Lean: Over 42.5 -110
Ravens 33 Giants 10

Anytime Touchdown Picks

(BAL) Derrick Henry -280
I dont need to explain on this one! He is finding the endzone at one point in this game

(BAL) Justice Hill +450
He can get this through the air or on the ground and that is what I love about this. When the Ravens have scored 28+ Prts he has had 1+ TD in 3/8 games. Feels like a sneaky play! 

First Touchdown Picks

(BAL) Derrick Henry +260
I'm Honestly shocked this is not lower. He has had a 1Q TD in 5/13 games. I dont see the Giants getting on the board early.

(BAL) Rashod Bateman +1000
He can get that deep ball! He has had 3 1H TD's this year!

Parlay #1 (+226)
Derrick Henry 1+ TD
Justice Hill 'O' 15.5 Rec Yds 
Ravens -9.5 

Parlay #2 (+1026)
Zay Flowers 1Q 10+ Rec Yds 
Derrick Henry 1st TD 
Justice Hill 'O' 15.5 Rec Yds

Parlay #3 (+1822)
Derrick Henry 2+ TD's
Justice Hill 25+ Rec Yds
Zay Flowers 1Q 15+ Yds
Ravens -9.5 

QB Joe Burrow
If it weren't for the Bengals' 5-8 record, would he not be the runaway leader for the NFL's MVP? Joe Burrow leads the league in completions (335), passing yards (3,706), and passing TDs (33) to this point of the season while only having six interceptions despite, again, leading the league in pass attempts (490). But the encouraging thing is that he's played his best football within the past four weeks, not just riding an early high. In fact, Burrow threw for 260+ passing yards in just one of the opening four games, averaging 244.5 passing yards but in the past four weeks, he's thrown for 300+ yards in all four of those games, averaging 365.5 passing yards, topping out at 428 against the Baltimore Ravens. However, this week, Burrow will face off against the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing the seventh-fewest completions (19), the third-fewest pass attempts (28.8) and the single-fewest passing yards (189.2) per game this season. Now, this Titans defence isn't as strong as their defensive numbers project. They're facing injuries in their secondary to L'Jarius Sneed, Roger McCreary, Quandre Diggs and a suspension to Julius Wood. Tennessee runs the fifth most zone coverage in the league (75.3%), which is the dream matchup for Burrow. He has the second-highest completion percentage (76%), the most passing yards per game (207.2) and the fourth-most yards per attempt (8.63) per game against zone this season. Now, the Titans allow middle-of-the-pack in terms of aDoT to QBs (7.3) in zone coverage. However, they aren't great at finishing their tackles as they allow the second-most percentage of passing yards that come after the catch. So, I'd be a crazy person to suggest Burrow and his current pace are going to slow down against a team who are playing the coverage Burrow succeeds in. However, the game script might not go in Burrow's favour to need to throw the ball enough to get close to that 300-yard mark, but he should be able to find success deep. Burrow has thrown a 40+ yard pass in six straight games and 10 of his previous 12 games.

Suggested Pick:
Joe Burrow o36.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115)

RB Chase Brown
Oh man, why did the Bengals ever start the season giving Zack Moss any run after what we've seen from Chase Brown in his absence? Since Moss has been out, Brown has been a menace. In the five games without Moss, Brown has eclipsed 70 rushing yards in three of five games, topping out at 120, and recorded over 30+ receiving yards in all five games. They brought in Khalil Herbert from the Chicago Bears, but he's played just 10% of the snaps in both of his two games as a Bengal. This Titans run defence projects to be one of the toughest for Brown, as they allow the 10th-fewest rushing yards (85.5) per game to RBs this season. And while he's been a valued weapon through the air, they don't allow much in that regard, either, as the seventh-fewest receptions (3.6) and receiving yards (24.4) to RBs. Another rough spot for Brown is that he exceeds against zone with a 4.58 yards per carry, but the Titans run zone concept at the fifth-fewest rate (34.3%) in the NFL and allow just 3.44 yards per carry. However, they won't fully be able to shut Brown down, as he has scored in four of his five games as the starter. The Titans have allowed a RB to score a TD in seven of their last eight games.

Suggested Pick:
Chase Brown TD (-150)

WR Ja'Marr Chase
What is there really to say about Ja'Marr Chase? He's absolutely destroying opposing defences. Chase leads the league in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,319) and receiving TDs (15). He's on track to grab the triple crown for the first time since Cooper Kupp in 2021. And he isn't slowing down at all. Through his last four games, he's averaging 9.5 receptions, 150.5 receiving yards and TWO touchdowns per game. That's unbelievable numbers. This week, he faces off against the banged-up Titans secondary, who're allowing the seventh-fewest receptions (10.9) but the single fewest receiving yards (124.5) per game to opposing WRs. With Tennessee running the fifth most zone coverage, Chase should slotter this defence. Chase has the highest target share in zone (23.7%) with a 79.1 catch rate and 858 receiving yards, averaging 16.2 yards per reception with a whopping 8.4 yards after catch per reception and a 3.03 yards per route run. Both ranking top five in the league. At this point, he's matchup proof. But, Chase lines up all over the field, mostly lining up in the slot and on the right. He will likely draw the Chidobe Awuzie matchup. Awuzie made his return to the Titans line up last week. He played 43 snaps and was targeted just once. However, it's important to remember that was the Jaguars and Mac Jones. This is a whole different beast that I don't think anybody in this Titans secondary can handle. Chase has recorded 7+ receptions in five of his last six games, while averaging 13.2 targets per game.

Suggested Pick:
Ja'Marr Chase o6.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Tee Higgins
While it's Chase that has been stealing all the headlines, it hasn't come at the cost of Higgins' success. On the season, Higgins is still averaging 5.6 receptions on 72.6 receiving yards in his eight games this season. And over the stretch we talked about where Chase has gone nuclear; Higgins is still getting his as he is averaging 80 receiving yards per game. Now, he did have a down game last week against the Cowboys, where he had just two receptions for 23 receiving yards on five targets. But in games last season when he saw five targets or less, Higgins bounced back the following game with 65+ receiving yards in three out of four games. However, maybe we see more of what we saw last week as Higgins is much better against man coverage according to PFF grades. Against zone, Higgins has a 66.7% catch rate for 292 receiving yards this season but has a lower target share, yards per reception, yards after reception, yards per route run and aDoT. Higgins lines up on the left 41% of the time and will often draw the Jarvis Brownlee matchup. Brownlee had a week to forget last week. He allowed 10 receptions on 10 targets for 54 receiving yards but did a good job at minimizing the deep ball, having a long reception of just eight yards. Unfortunately for Tee Higgins, it just seems like another Chase week, and we'll have to wait until a better matchup against a man-heavy team before we see Higgins excel.

Suggested Pick:
Tee Higgins u63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki really benefitted in this offence with Higgins out of the lineup. Without Higgins, Gesicki became the second passing option for Burrow, averaging a whopping 5.2 receptions for 62.4 receiving yards on 7.2 targets. However, with Higgins this season, he averages just 2.0 receptions for 18.5 receiving yards on 2.4 targets. Now, over his past two weeks, he's caught all eight of his targets, registering 77 receiving yards in those games. The Titans, again, are quite good against the TE position, allowing the ninth-fewest receptions (4.5) and the seventh-fewest receiving yards (40.5). However, given his perfect catch rate over his previous two games, we might expect him to do that again, especially in a game we project for Higgins to struggle again in. The Titans have allowed opposing TEs to reach 25+ receiving yards in six of their previous eight games.

Suggested Pick:
Mike Gesicki o22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Will Levis
Oh, brother. Will Levis exploded last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as expected. He posted 168 passing yards, three rushing yards and zero passing TDs... He's going to be a great backup QB next season for this Titans future first-round QB they're going to draft. Levis has the 28th-most passing yards and the 27th-highest completion percentage on the season. It's just been a disappointing year for Levis in a season he was handed the keys to prove he could be a starter in this league. However, can he turn it around against the Bengals? They who allow the ninth-most pass attempts (33.7) and the seventh-most passing yards (245.7) to QBs this season. Cincinnati run the 17th-most man (27.1%) and zone (67.3%) coverage in the league. So, really, there is no edge there for Levis. However, Levis is not afraid to air the ball out, as he has the eighth-highest aDoT (8.8) in the league. The Bengals rank in the middle of the league in pretty much every metric in regards to the deep ball: 13th-highest yards per attempt (7.8), 17th-highest aDoT (7.9) and the 18th-highest deep ball completion percentage (10.3). Which leads to their 16th-highest rank interception rate (0.7) on the season. Levis has gone two games without throwing an interception, which is not a feat he's hit at any point this season. With the Bengals likely to be leading this game, should lead Levis into some turnover-worthy throws, which Levis has thrown the eighth most in the league. The Bengals have recorded an interception in two straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Will Levis Interception (-135)

RB Tony Pollard
Since the Titans came out and said they were going to give Pollard a break as he deals with his injuries, they haven't really followed through with that premise. He has still logged 94%, 73% and 62% of the snaps in those three games with 129, 68 and 124 all-purpose yards. While Tyjae Spears has still been on the field a decent amount, logging 44%, 25% and 38% of the snaps, with eight, one and 23 all-purpose yards. So, it is safe to say that this "injury" hasn't affected Pollard's workload in the offence. The Bengals run defence ranks middle of the pack in rushing yards (94.5) against to RBs, but are solid through the air, allowing the eighth-fewest 27.8 receiving yards per game. The Bengals run the zone concept 47% of the time, and, unfortunately for Pollard, he struggles with a 3.42 yards per carry against the coverage. With his workload not being affected and Pollard logging 20+ rush attempts in two of his previous three games, we would anticipate him to see similar volume. However, looking under the microscope, those two games were games in which the Titans were competitive. They beat the Texans when he had 24 and were leading the entire game against the Jaguars until the final seven minutes. Against this high-flying of an offence, with how Burrow and the Bengals are playing, Pollard might need to be used through the air more. In losses this season, Pollard has recorded 3+ receptions in seven of 10 games, averaging 4.3 targets per game. If Pollard is out for this game, we project the same workload for Spears and would suggest the same pick as Pollard.

Suggested Pick:
(If Pollard's in) Tony Pollard o2.5 Receptions
(If Pollard's out) Tyjae Spears o2.5 Receptions

WR Calvin Ridley
In the eight games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, Ridley has recorded at least six targets in seven of those eight games, receiving double-digit targets in two of those weeks. One of those came last week in a revenge game against his former team, but could only turn those targets into seven receptions to 59 receiving yards. With the increased targets come better production, averaging 74.6 receiving yards, compared to the 28.2 receiving yards throughout the first five games. This week, he faces off against the Bengals defence, who are allowing the 16th-most receptions (11.5) and the 12th-most receiving yards (153.4) per game to WRs. With the Bengals sticking in the middle of the pack in terms of man and zone coverage, there's no edge to find for Ridley. However, he does performs considerably better against man coverage than zone. Against man, Ridley has the highest PFF grade of all Titans WRs, despite having a low 56% catch rate on 34 targets, but has gone for 319 receiving yards for a 16.9 yards per reception. And the Bengals don't allow that high of aDoT (8.0) but they allow the 10th-highest yards per reception (11.3) and the 12th-highest yards after catch (5.6). Ridley lines up on the right 47% of the time and will likely draw the Josh Newton matchup. Newton has only became a mainstay in this Bengals lineup for the previous three games. In those games, he's 10 catches on 17 targets but has allowed 158 receiving yards, with two catches going 24 yards or longer. One of those catches went for 44 yards with 43 yards after catch. With Ridley's speed, should be able to burn Newton down the field for a long reception. Ridley has caught a 30+ yard reception in four of his last five games.

Suggested Pick:
Calvin Ridley o24.5 Longest Reception (-115)
Calvin Ridley 30+ Longest Reception (+155)

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Unless Westbrook-Ikhine is catching a TD, he isn't doing much else. He has just one game where he's registered more than three receptions this season, but he's found the end zone in seven of nine games since Week 6, including a 98-yard TD reception in Week 11 against the Minnesota Vikings. Westbrook-Ikhine lines up on the left 50% of the time and will likely draw the Cam Taylor-Britt matchup. Taylor-Britt has allowed 14 receptions on 19 targets over the past four weeks averaging 55 receiving yards per game. However, the big kicker here is that Taylor-Britt has allowed six receiving TDs in those four games. Given the Bengals are allowing 1.1 receiving TD per game to WRs, there's a good shot it could be the 6'2", 211-lbs framed WR.

Suggested Pick:
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TD (+200)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo really isn't a part of this offence. Granted, he exploded for 70+ receiving yards just three weeks ago. But the previous two weeks after that have been three receptions for 27 receiving yards and another three receptions, but for just eight receiving yards. The Bengals can be exploited against TEs, as they allow the third most receptions (5.9) and the fourth most receiving yards (64.4). Now, with his recent performance we wouldn't suggest playing anything Okonkwo. But, in this matchup against the Bengals' poor TE defence, and him seeing 10 targets over the past two weeks, maybe he sees some volume in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Chigoziem Okonkwo o2.5 Receptions (-150)

This line seems odd to me. But should it? The Bengals have been just so bad this season defensively that they allow opposing teams to keep up with their league-best offensive duo in Burrow and Chase. Also, the Titans just got embarrassed against the Jaguars, are they due for a bounce-back spot? I'm going to side with the better offence and with the team who still have a shot at the playoffs.

Best Bet: Bengals -4.5 -125
Lean: Under 46.5 -120
Bengals 27 - Titans 17

Anytime TD Picks

Chase Brown (-150)
We're fairly certain already in Brown finding the end zone considering we made that our suggested pick. Brown has 17 red zone carries in the red zone since taking over, while the Titans have allowed a RB to score a TD in seven of their last eight games.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+200)
Again, another one of our suggested picks. Westbrook-Ikhine has just been a scoring machine. Having found the end zone in seven of the nine games he's suited up in this season. While he's been burning opposing teams for deep TDs, he's registered a red zone target in six of those nine games.

First TD Picks

Ja'Marr Chase First TD (+400)
As we've discussed, Chase is a TD scoring machine. But he often finds the end zone early. The Bengals have scored the first TD in six games, with Chase registering two of those six. Give me the guy who is averaging TWO TDs per game to find the end zone once.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine First TD (+1200)
It's kind of surprising to see that the Titans have scored the first TD in six of their 13 games this season. Calvin Ridley leads the team with two, with Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Nick Vannett logging the other three. If we're backing Westbrook-Ikhine to find the end zone already, why can't he get in first and tie Ridley for the team lead?

Parlay 1: +190 odds on bet365
Cincinnati Bengals ML
Chase Brown TD
Ja'Marr Chase 6+ Receptions

Parlay 2: +190 odds on bet365
Will Levis Interception
Chigoziem Okonkwo 2+ Receptions
Tennessee Titans u23.5 Team Total

Parlay 3: +850 odds on bet365
Joe Burrow 300+ Passing Yards
Ja'Marr Chase 100+ Receiving Yards
Cincinnati Bengals -9.5

QB Patrick Mahomes
While Mahomes has not been bad by any standard this season, he has had to transform into entirely different type of passer in the 2024 season. For example, as a QB who has historically been known to air the ball deep, Mahomes has been incredibly conservative this season, with a 6.5 aDOT that ranks 35th out of 41 QBs with at least 100 pass attempts. Against the Browns, he will see a lot of man coverage. The Browns are in man on 35.9% of their defensive snaps, which ranks as the 4th most in the NFL. Against man, Mahomes is right on target with how he is against zone and other coverage types, with a 60.2% completion rate, as well as a 6.67 YPA that ranks 17th out of 34 QBs with at least 50 dropback against man. In terms of success, they have been interesting in that they have done a great job taking away the short passes, and have allowed only a 61.3% completion rate which is the 4th lowest in the NFL. Despite that, they have been carved up down the field. They have given up a 17.5 deep-throw completion %, which is the highest in the NFL, and have also given up 12.8 yards per completion. All this points to the fact that for his best chance of success, Mahomes is going to have to do the opposite of what he has already this year and begin testing this defense deep. We know that Mahomes is capable of that regardless of what he has done this year, but in looking at his completions line, his 23.5 is far too high against a Browns team that will not let him dink and dunk it down the field.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 23.5 Completions (-110)

RB Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco will be making his 3rd game back from injury in this game against the Browns, and I anticipate that his workload will be primarily back to normal. In his first game back, he handled 50% of the team’s carries, and that number spiked to 70% last week against the Chargers. He runs into a tough matchup with the Browns in this spot, a team that has the 4th highest stuff rate in the NFL at 48.0% and also 4.1 yards per carry (which ranks 11th in the NFL). Teams have been able to attack the Browns with some success in the red zone, as their 13 rushing TDs allowed is the 6th most in the NFL. Pacheco has a respectable 50.0% rush rate inside the 5 yard line, but I anticipate that to rise given 2 out of his 4 games have been played with him on a de facto snap count. Pacheco has not scored since Week 1, but with this price sitting at plus money and a full workload expected AND a team that has given up a lot of TDs to RBs, I am looking at him as a good candidate to find the end zone.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+120)

WR DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins has not been on the field as much as one may expect with the Chiefs, as his routes-run rate on the season is just at 50.7% on the season. His target share while on the field, however, proves that he still can make a difference while he is out there. Last Sunday against the Chargers, the 25% target share that he logged was his highest of the season thus far. As mentioned earlier, the Browns line up in man coverage on 35.9% of their defensive snaps, which is the 4th most in the NFL. Hopkins has been the guy that Mahomes has looked towards often in man coverage, with a target on 29.8% of his routes against man. He also is getting 1.76 yards per route run against man, which leads the Chiefs WRs corps. Hopkins has a high aDOT of 13.6 against man coverage, and as mentioned earlier the deep pass is what the Browns secondary has struggled the most with on the year. Look for Mahomes to try and stretch the defense a bit more than he has, and for Hopkins to be a likely recipient.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Xavier Worthy
Like Hopkins, Worthy is another guy who has seen a spike in targets against man coverage, seeing a target on 22.7% of his routes against man in comparison to 14.8% against zone coverage. Worthy is averaging 12.14 yards per reception against man coverage, which is just behind Hopkins, but still well above league average. He also has been on the field more consistently than Hopkins, running a route on 73.8 of team dropbacks, which is only behind Travis Kelce overall. Despite this being promising, I actually am going to target Worthy in the run game here, as the Browns are giving up 7.1 rush yards per game to WRs per game, which is the 2nd most in the NFL (by way of jet sweeps, laterals, etc.). This is exactly what the Chiefs like to do with Worthy, who is a significant gadget player, and has gone over this line in 3 out of his last 4 games.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 2.5 Rush Yards (-120)

TE Travis Kelce
Kelce still has remained Mahomes’ favorite target this season, as his target share sits at 22.4%, and leads the team overall with 104 total targets. He has predominantly done it through his crafty route running as well as the scheme of Andy Reid and Matt Nagy, but his athleticism and ability after the catch has greatly decreased from years prior. He is averaging just 3.85 yards after catch per reception this year, and also is averaging only 8.5 yards per reception overall this season, which is the lowest of his career. Against man coverage, his target share falls slightly to 20.3% overall and is running a route on only 76.7% of dropbacks against man coverage. The Browns have been decent in defending TEs, allowing only 7.2 yards per target, which is the 14th lowest in the NFL. All and all, this is not a great spot for Kelce considering the Chiefs have the weapons to exploit the Browns’ defense biggest weakness, but those weapons aren’t Kelce. This just feels like a game where the targets may not be there for Kelce in the same way they typically are.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jameis Winston
After a “complicated” Monday night game 2 weeks back against the Broncos in which Jameis threw for 4 TDs, 3 INTs (and 2 pick 6s), as well as nearly 500 passing yards, Jameis had a game last week in which he just flat out struggled, throwing another 2 INTs and 212 passing yards with a lot of that being done in garbage time. A lot of Winston’s INTs and riskier throws on the season have come under pressure. That is not necessarily great news against a team in Kansas City that brings the heat often, with a blitz rate of 33.1%, which ranks 4th in the NFL. When facing pressure, Winston has just a 41.9% completion rate, which is the worst mark in the league, as well as a 4.3 INT% which is the 3rd highest in the NFL. The Chiefs are also in man coverage on 34.8% of snaps, which is the 6th most in the NFL. Winston has not been great against man coverage, with a 6.70 YPA that ranks 16th in the NFL out of 34 QBs. One constant for Winston however, has been the volume in the passing game he is getting, which is partially due to game script but also due to the faltering run game of the Browns, as he has gone over 40 pass attempts in each of Cleveland’s losses.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 34.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

RB Nick Chubb|
After sustaining the brutal Achilles tear over a year ago, Chubb unfortunately has just not looked like the same guy this season, as he is averaging a measly 3.14 YPC, which ranks 36th out of 40 RBs in the NFL with at least 25 rush attempts. This will not get much easier against the Chiefs either, a team that gives up only 3.75 YPC on the defensive side of the ball, which is the 2nd fewest allowed in the NFL. They also have a 47.7 stuff-rate, which ranks 5th in the NFL. Over the last 2 weeks, Chubb saw just a 39% and 44% rush share for a team in the Browns that does not get much going on the ground as is, with Jerome Ford starting to steadily take more action on. This matchup doesn’t get much tougher, and I just don’t think Chubb has what it takes to make a difference against the stout rush defense that the Chiefs will bring into this game in what could be a losing game script as well.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 43.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Jerry Jeudy
Since Jameis Winston took over as the starting QB for Deshaun Watson, Jeudy has been the guy who has clearly emerged as the number one option for this team. In Jameis’ 6 starts, Jeudy has been excellent, with a 2.48 YPRR in that span, which is the 12th highest among WRs in the NFL during that time. Jameis does spread the ball out well, between Jeudy, Moore, Tillman (when healthy), Njoku and the other TE matchups. However when you factor in the volume that Jameis has thrown the ball, the target share of 21.7% towards Jeudy has resulted in some big time numbers. Much of Jeudy’s targets, however, have been against zone coverage (22.8% target share), in comparison to man coverage (15.8%). The Chiefs are in man at the 6th highest rate in the NFL. With that in mind, the man coverage can often lead to more looks downfield especially for boundary WRs like Jeudy (lines up wide on 64% of snaps), and the Chiefs have given up some longer pass plays this year, with a 11.4 Deep-Throw Completion % allowed, which is the 14th highest in the NFL. 

Suggested Play
‘O’ 24.5 Longest Reception (-115)

WR Elijah Moore
Elijah Moore runs a route on 75% of the team’s dropbacks (in comparison to 87.4 from Jeudy). However, out of those routes, he actually is getting more targets per route run at 22.7% than Jeudy is, and leads the Browns WR corps in that category. The Chiefs secondary has been solid, but the one area that has been targeted the most against them is the slot position. The Chiefs are allowing 53.7% of the receptions against them by opposing WRs to come by slot WRs, which is by far the highest rate in the NFL. Moore has been the Browns’ primary slot option, lining up there on 60.4% of his offensive snaps. The Chiefs have also given up 1.1 TD catch to a WR per game, which is the 9th most in the NFL. Given the impressive longshot odds combined with a high volume I am expecting for Moore, give me his chances at getting in the end zone on Sunday.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+260)

TE Jordan Akins
David Njoku is currently listed as questionable with a hamstring injury for this game, but the reports out of Cleveland on Thursday are that he did not participate in practice, and I personally would be highly skeptical of his chances to play. Even if he does play, we can expect him to be significantly limited. That leaves Jordan Akins as the primary TE. Akins actually had been the primary TE earlier in the year when Njoku was injured, and combined for just 6 catches for 49 yards in those games. However, this game against the Chiefs will be the first time he gets a look with Jameis Winston. The Chiefs defense has been leaky against TEs at times this year, with 26.8% of total targets going to a TE, so we can probably expect Akins to get some work. However, with the success of some of the WRs on this team as of late as well as there not being much history between Winston and Akins, it is hard to have a clear feel of this either way.
Suggested Play
Pass

To be honest, I am expecting a bit of an ugly game here, as both defenses excel in exploiting the weakness of each other’s opposing offense. The Chiefs will not be able to thrive as easily in taking the easy yards, while the Chiefs have the defense that is necessary to force turnovers from Jameis Winston. The Browns have also played a lot better at home this year, with all of their wins coming there, and including two wins vs playoff caliber teams in the Ravens and Steelers. There is no way I am betting against the Chiefs right now on the money line, as this team just finds ways every single week. However, I am expecting yet another game that goes down to the absolute wire.

Best Bet: ‘U’ 43.5 -110
Lean: Browns +4.5 -110
Chiefs 20 Browns 17

Anytime TD

Best Bet (Chiefs) Isaiah Pacheco +120
Pacheco has a respectable 50.0% rush rate inside the 5 yard line, but I anticipate that to rise given 2 out of his 4 games have been played with him on a de-facto snap count. Pacheco has not scored since Week 1, but with this price sitting at plus money and a full workload expected AND a team that has given up a lot of TDs to RBs, I am looking at him as a good candidate to find the end zone.

Longshot (Browns) Elijah Moore +260
The Chiefs are allowing 53.7% of the receptions against them by opposing WRs to come by slot WRs, which is by far the highest rate in the NFL. Moore has been the Browns’ primary slot option, lining up there on 60.4% of his offensive snaps. The Chiefs have also given up 1.1 TD catch to a WR per game, which is the 9th most in the NFL. Given the impressive longshot odds combined with a high volume I am expecting for Moore, give me his chances at getting in the end zone on Sunday.

First TD

(Browns) Nick Chubb +650
Despite the overall bad outlook in this game for Nick Chubb, he is getting ridiculous good value on this prop in my opinion. In short yardage situations, the Browns still will go to Chubb, as he has 16 total targets+rush attempts on the year inside the red zone. He also has scored the 1st TD in 2 out of the 3 games that the Browns have scored the first TD in this year.

(Chiefs) Travis Kelce +750
Another spot here where while I don’t love the overall matchup, we can’t ignore the fact that the Chiefs love to look towards Kelce in the red zone. Kelce has had 14 total red zone targets this year, although he has only 2 total TDs. Still, the total output in TDs does not match the amount of volume near the end zone he is seeing, and I think we can expect a regression to the mean soon.

Parlay 1 +1535
Nick Chubb ‘U’ 42.5 Rush Yards
Jameis Winston ‘O’ 34.5 Pass Attempts
Travis Kelce 1st TD

Parlay 2 +210
Patrick Mahomes ‘U’ 23.5 Completions
Isiah Pacheco ATD

Parlay 3 +495
Isiah Pacheco ATD
DeAndre Hopkins ‘O’ 45.5 Receiving Yards
Xavier Worthy ‘O’ 19.5 Longest Reception

QB Tua Tagovailoa
After the return from his Week 2 concussion, Tua has put together a really impressive season in somewhat of a quiet fashion. This has been highlighted in particular by drastic improvements to his accuracy, as he has completed a league high 73.8% of his passes this year. With this in mind, Tua has not stretched defenses vertically too often, as his aDOT is a league low 6.0, and just 1042 air yards on the year, which is the 8th lowest among QBs with at least 9 games played. Houston has been vulnerable on deep passes in the air (which Tua does not attempt often), allowing 15.8% of them to be completed, which is the 2nd most in the NFL. However, they have been excellent in preventing the short game, and are allowing only a 56.3 completion % against them, which is also the lowest allowed in the NFL. The Texans have allowed some YAC, with 50.8% of their passing yards coming after the catch (14th most in NFL), however much of this is coming deep in the secondary after a deep ball has been completed. This creates a dynamic where Tua is going to have to most likely go away from what has brought him success in the last few games. It is hard to tell if Tua will be able to do that, given he will have to play outside his comfort zone a bit.

Suggested Play
Pass

RB DeVon Achane
Achane has been a solid option for the Dolphins in the passing game this season, and ranks 2nd among RBs in averaging 6.3 receptions per game. Despite that, he has really struggled as a runner. His 3.9 YPC ranks as the 6th lowest in the NFL among 33 RBs with at least 100 rush attempts. He also has ran for negative yards at far too high of a rate, with 27.5% of his runs going for zero or negative yards, leading the league by a mile. Defensively, the Texans have done a nice job of holding rushes in check, with a 47.0% stuff-rate that ranks as the 7th highest in the NFL. Much of the Dolphins struggles in the run game have come on the heels of an injury to starting tackle Austin Jackson, who will remain out for this matchup. Achane averages just 2.01 yards after contact per rush, which ranks 51st out of 61 RBs with at least 100 rush attempts on the season. When you factor in the fact that a losing game script could also be in store for the Dolphins, a team that has struggled on the road, I like this as a fade spot on Achane.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 47.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Tyreek Hill

Hill has had some surprising moments of frustration this year, with several games in which he was pretty much flat out shut down. However, he appears to be coming alive once again as of late. His last 2 games have seen him go for 83 and 115 receiving yards each, and last week Hill saw 30% of the team targets, which was the most he had seen since the season opener. Hill’s aDOT is slightly down from past seasons, at only 11.4. He only has seen 16.5% of his targets come at over 20 yards, in comparison to 20.55 of them last year. The other deep threat for the Dolphins is Jaylen Waddle, but he is listed as questionable for this matchup dealing with a hamstring injury. We know what Hill is capable of downfield, and as mentioned earlier the Texans have had plenty of struggles deep in their secondary and are allowing the 2nd highest deep-throw % in the NFL. Tua is going to have to stretch the defense deeper than he has in prior weeks, and we know that Tyreek is also capable of racking up YAC which the Texans are not great at stopping, as mentioned in Tua’s section. The efficiency is another story, but based on volume alone I expect Tyreek to come up with a deep ball or 2 in this matchup.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 24.5 Yard Longest Completion (-115)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Waddle, who is listed as questionable for this game, has played a significant role in the Dolphins offense. He has a route run on 75.4% of team dropbacks, which is just behind Hill’s rate of 75.6%. He is also averaging 1.86 yards per route run on the season. With the Dolphins’ recent spike in passing volume, Waddle has been a key beneficiary of that, pulling down 8 and 9 receptions in two out of the last three games. The thing is here that despite those two games, Waddle has also had several games where he has been a relative non-factor, as he is somewhat of a boom or bust player on a game to game basis. Waddle has 4 games this year with an 8% target share or less. With him battling a hamstring injury, I do not see a huge output from him in this game if he does in fact suit up on Sunday.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions (-115)

TE Jonnu Smith

Smith was thankful for last week’s game against the Jets heading to OT. He recorded just 1 catch in regulation in that game, but 3 receptions on the Dolphins game-winning OT drive, including the game winner itself. As mentioned earlier, the Texans have cracked down hard on the short passing game, and are allowing only a 56.3% completion rate (lowest in the league). This could be a problem for Smith, who brings just a 5.6 aDOT into this game, and is seeing only 14.8% of the team’s air yard share. This Houston defense has also been excellent against the TE position in general, as they are allowing only 37.0 yards per game to tight ends. It is interesting in that Tua did lean on Smith to end the game last week vs the Jets, but also difficult to project a lot more in this matchup against a team that TEs in general have been held largely in check against this season.

Suggested Play
Pass

QB CJ Stroud
Stroud has not quite had the dynamic year that many were expecting after his impressive rookie season, but still has been solid nonetheless. His 7.25 YPA ranks 19th in the NFL out of 43 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks.  Against the Dolphins, Stroud will see a fairly zone heavy team. The Dolphins line up in zone defense on 71.9% of their snaps, which is the 12th most in the NFL. They also have a 50.1% rate of having 2-high safeties with an open middle of the field. Stroud has seen some struggles against zone. His YPA is higher against zone at 7.55 than his overall YPA, but typically zone yields more efficient passing opportunities while preventing explosive plays. This number ranks 23rd out of 38 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks against zone. Even more concerning, he has thrown only 4 TDs and 8 of his 9 INTs against zone defense. He also has taken 27 sacks against zone blitzes, which is the 4th most in the NFL. Things have just not been clean for Stroud when seeing zone heavy teams, and I like his chances of making a couple of key mistakes in this one.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 INTs (-105)

RB Joe Mixon|
Joe Mixon has seen more work than any RB in the league since coming over to Houston in the offseason, as he is currently averaging 20.5 rush attempts in the league (leading the NFL). He ranks relatively middle of the road with 4.33 yards per carry, which ranks 28th out of 61 RBs with at least 50 rush attempts. The Dolphins have done a good job in defending the run this year, giving up 4.33 yards per carry (12th lowest allowed in the NFL). Before contact, the Dolphins are allowing just 1.48 yards before contact per attempt, which ranks as the 7th lowest in the NFL. One thing that does stand out about Mixon is his usage near the goal line. Mixon has 83.3% of the team carries inside the 5-yard line. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have allowed 57.7% of their TDs allowed to come from opponent RBs. We can expect a high volume from Mixon in this game regardless of efficiency, and plenty of work near the goal line and in the red zone.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 1.5 TDs (+240)

WR Nico Collins
After suffering a hamstring injury earlier in the year, Collins has come back to a Texans WR corps that no longer has Stefon Diggs, who is out for the season. He has picked up right where he left off with 3 big games immediately following the injury. Last week, he put up 119 receiving yards, which was his 4th 100+ yard game of the year. What is interesting about Collins is he is not even running a route that consistently, with one run on only 71.8% of team dropbacks. This means he has been incredibly efficient when he is out there, and has averaged 3.48 yards per route run this season, which is the highest on the Texans by a lot, and is actually 2nd in the NFL behind only Puka Nacua. The Dolphins have been good overall against the pass this year, but have been allowing some huge games to WRs as of late, with Nacua going for 98 yards, Garrett Wilson for 114, Davante Adams for 109, and Marvin Harrison for 111. Against zone defense, Collins has a 3.59 YPRR, which is the highest in the NFL. Lets remember that the Dolphins are in zone on 71.9% of their defensive snaps, which is the 12th highest in the NFL. This should be a smash spot for Nico Collins.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Tank Dell
With the emergence of Collins back in this Texans offense after the return from his injury, Tank Dell has seen a drastic decline in target share. In the three games since Collins’ return, Dell has has seen 21.2%, 16.1%, and 12.1% of the team targets. Overall with Collins on the field, Dell has seen targets on 15.6% of his routes on the year. Dell also has not performed particularly well against zone coverage, which the Dolphins are in on 71.9% of their defensive snaps on the year (12th highest in the NFL). Against zone, Dell has only a 1.28 YPRR, which is actually 4th on the team among WRs against zone, despite typically being Stroud’s second option (or third from earlier in the season when Diggs was still healthy). With Collins healthy, Dell is averaging only 5.3 targets per game, and now faces a stingy Dolphins pass defense that averages only 11.6 receptions per game to opposing WRs this year, which is the 11th fewest in the NFL. This is a fade spot for me.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-115)

TE Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz is coming off one of his biggest games of the season on Sunday, in which he pulled down 5 receptions on 7 targets for 61 receiving yards. Against zone defenses, Schultz is seeing 15.7% of total team targets while running a route on 67.0% of dropbacks against zone coverage. The Dolphins have been beat up this year by opposing TEs, and have allowed 56.2 yards per game on average, which is the 11th most in the NFL. Unlike many other TEs, Schultz has not been active in the red zone, with only 5 total red zone targets on the year, which is the 5th lowest in the NFL. This sets him up as another target for Stroud where he can be targeted on intermediate and short throws through the middle part of the field, and this should be a solid matchup for him against the Dolphins.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Dolphins’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. They appear to be a revitalized team, but have to win in Houston to have any chance at sneaking in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Texans are closing in on an AFC South title. The issue here for me with the Dolphins is that they are going to need to do what Tua has struggled with at times: push the defense downfield. The success he has had has been rooted in the short passing game, and he likely will not be able to find much success in that with this matchup. The defense should create some chaos and keep them in the game, but I am expecting a big game between Stroud and Collins overall, and too much for the Dolphins to overcome.

Best Bet: ‘U’ 46.5 -110
Lean: Texans -2.5 -135
Texans 24 Dolphins 17

Anytime TD 

(Dolphins) De’Von Achane -110
While we can expect Achane to struggle on the ground, his ability to catch passes, averaging 5 receptions a game, gives him multiple ways to find the end zone. He will get his chances in the red zone as well, even if the overall chances for big yardage are not there. Achane has scored 8 TDs in total in his last 7 games, and I think there is a great chance for him to find the end zone again.

(Texans) Joe Mixon 1.5 TDs +240
One thing that stands out about Mixon is his usage near the goal line. Mixon has 83.3% of the team carries inside the 5-yard line. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have allowed 57.7% of their TDs allowed to come from opponent RBs. We can expect a high volume from Mixon in this game regardless of efficiency, and plenty of work near the goal line and in the red zone. His 0.5 is very juiced, but I like his chances at more than one score.

First TD

(Texans) Joe Mixon +390
With Mixon having a high chance to score in this game, that means there also is a great chance for Mixon to score the game’s first TD. He already has scored 3 first TDs on the season, and this is in only 9 games as he missed a couple of games early in the season due to injury. He also has scored a TD in 7 out of his 9 total games played.

(Texans) Nico Collins +790
The Texans have scored the first TD in 7 of their games this year. Collins has an excellent matchup, as profiled in his write up. Collins has 4 TDs this season, but 2 of these have come in the first quarter of the game and 1 of them was the game’s first TD. It is clear the Texans like to feed him early in ballgames.

Parlay 1 +545
De’Von Achane ‘U’ 47.5 Rush Yards
Joe Mixon 1st TD

Parlay 2 +2965
Nico Collins ‘O’88.5 Receiving Yards
Nico Collins 1st TD
Tank Dell ‘U’ 3.5 Receptions
De’Von Achane ATD

Parlay 3 +435
Nico Collins ‘O’ 88.5 Receiving Yards
Tank Dell ‘U’ 3.5 Receptions
CJ Stroud ‘O’ 0.5 INTs

QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen faces a fascinating test against the Detroit Lions defense, which presents a blend of vulnerability and defensive prowess. The Lions are allowing the 9th-most passing yards per game (240.8), but this figure is somewhat deceptive. Despite the yardage totals, Detroit boasts the league's lowest opponent passer rating (76.5) and the second-lowest completion rate (60.7%). This suggests that the high passing yardage allowed stems more from game script dynamics, where opponents often play from behind, rather than defensive breakdowns. Detroit’s pass defense is well-regarded, ranking 4th in both pass rush and coverage according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). This well-rounded defensive unit could create a challenging environment for Allen, though he has proven time and again to be matchup-proof. Over the past five weeks, Allen has averaged 253.4 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and 42.4 rushing yards per game. His dual-threat ability has translated into seven total touchdowns through the air or on the ground — including that unforgettable passing touchdown to himself. The Lions’ ability to force turnovers also warrants attention. They rank 3rd in turnover-worthy throw rate (4.8%), meaning Allen must be sharp with his decision-making. However, Buffalo's offense thrives when Allen is at his best, and his recent play suggests he’s poised for another strong performance. Another key factor is Allen’s rushing upside. Detroit has allowed the 7th-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (24.8), setting up well for Allen’s scrambling ability. Whether through the air or with his legs, expect Allen to play a pivotal role in Buffalo’s offensive game plan against a Detroit defense that is better than its raw yardage numbers suggest.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions

RB James Cook
James Cook has been a volatile performer for the Buffalo Bills this season, alternating between strong and underwhelming performances. He has six games with fewer than 45 rushing yards but has also topped 70+ rushing yards in six contests. This inconsistency makes evaluating his potential against a formidable Detroit Lions run defense particularly challenging. Detroit has excelled at limiting rushing production, allowing the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game (94) and ranking 14th in yards per carry allowed (4.35). Their 12th-highest stuff rate (46%) highlights their ability to disrupt runs at the line of scrimmage. While they rank only 18th in explosive run rate allowed, indicating occasional vulnerability to big plays, Cook’s opportunities may be limited in this area. The Lions have also conceded the 6th-highest rushing touchdown rate (4.3%), suggesting some red-zone scoring potential exists. However, with Josh Allen frequently serving as the Bills’ short-yardage and goal-line runner, Cook’s scoring upside is reduced. Given Detroit’s ability to control games and force opponents into pass-heavy scripts, Cook’s rushing volume could be inconsistent. His role may be game-script dependent, making it tough to trust him in this matchup, particularly on rushing-related props.
Suggested Picks
‘U’ 12.5 Rushing Attempts -127

WR Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper's outlook continues to reflect his up-and-down career trajectory. On the Buffalo Bills, he has had 55+ receiving yards in 3 of his 5 games, but in the other two, he’s been held to under 15 yards—an extremely disappointing result. Cooper has also been inconsistent in terms of targets and receptions, with 3 or more catches in just 3 games and surpassing 5 targets in only one. This level of inconsistency can be frustrating for fantasy managers, and it’s tough to trust him week-to-week. The Detroit Lions, however, are a team Cooper might be able to exploit. Detroit runs the most man coverage in the league this season (45%), which plays into Cooper’s strengths. Against man coverage, he has a solid 27.1% target share, an impressive 12.27 yards per reception, and a 31.7% first-read rate, indicating that he can break free in one-on-one situations. In contrast, his numbers drop when facing zone coverage, with a 21.1% target share, 11.8 YPR, and 28.5% first-read rate. Given his success against man coverage, Cooper could have a productive day if the Lions continue to play heavy man defense. However, while this could be a favorable matchup for him, there’s another option in the lineup I’m more excited about this week.
Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions +106

WR Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir is positioned for a standout game in this matchup against the Detroit Lions, and it's a spot I'm particularly excited about. The Lions have been vulnerable against slot receivers this season, allowing the 2nd most receiving yards per game from the slot (97.3), along with the 5th highest yards per reception (11.94) and a 68.8% completion rate allowed. These numbers point to a potential field day for Shakir, especially since he lines up in the slot and can exploit Detroit's weaknesses in this area. While Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid may return to the lineup, it’s clear that quarterback Josh Allen has developed a strong connection with Shakir, making him a go-to target. Over his last 7 games, Shakir has recorded 50+ receiving yards and 5+ receptions in 6 of those, and he has seen at least 7 targets in every game during that stretch. With the Bills likely needing to pass frequently in what should be a high-scoring contest, this is an ideal opportunity for Shakir to shine. His consistent involvement in the offense and favorable matchup make him a strong fantasy play in this game, with plenty of upside.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 54.5 Receiving Yards -115
70+ Receiving Yards +165
100+ Receiving Yards +500

TE Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid is expected to return after missing the past few games, but his 2024 season has largely been underwhelming, with no game exceeding 55 receiving yards. In fact, he has been held to under 40 yards in 6 of 10 games this season, despite averaging 5.9 targets per game. This inconsistency has been frustrating for fantasy managers, and unfortunately, this week’s matchup against the Detroit Lions doesn't offer much hope for a breakout performance. The Lions have been exceptionally tough against tight ends, allowing the fewest receiving yards and receptions per game to the position. This presents a significant challenge for Kincaid, who has struggled to produce even in more favorable matchups. Additionally, even if he does play, it’s worth noting that he likely won't be at 100% health, further limiting his upside. Given the tough matchup and Kincaid's recent form, this is a spot to avoid, making him a pass for fantasy managers in a tough game.
Suggested Picks
PASS

QB Jared Goff
Jared Goff faces a formidable challenge against a Buffalo Bills defense that has shown both strengths and vulnerabilities this season. The Bills allow the 24th-most passing yards per game (223.8) and rank 20th in passer rating allowed (89.9). However, they are coming off a shaky performance in which they surrendered 320 passing yards and two touchdowns to Matthew Stafford. Buffalo’s pass rush, ranked 5th by Pro Football Focus (PFF), is typically a strength, but they struggled to generate consistent pressure last week. To disrupt Goff, they will need to reestablish their pass-rushing effectiveness, especially playing on the road inside Detroit’s dome. If given time, Goff has proven capable of dissecting defenses with efficient, short-to-intermediate throws. In coverage, Buffalo ranks only 26th overall, allowing the 5th-highest completion rate (69.1%) to opposing quarterbacks. This signals potential opportunities for Goff to sustain drives through a high-percentage passing attack. Still, the Bills’ defense excels in creating turnovers, ranking tied for 5th in interceptions (13) while generating the 4th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate (4.8%). Goff must be cautious with ball security, as Buffalo’s defensive backs thrive on capitalizing on mistakes. Though Goff is not known for mobility, he has quietly surpassed his 0.5 rushing yard prop in four of his last five games. If Buffalo’s pass rush forces him out of the pocket, he might be compelled to scramble for minimal gains, especially in what could be a closely contested game where kneel-downs seem less likely. This added dimension, albeit limited, could play a small role in his overall performance. Overall, Goff’s success will depend heavily on how well Detroit’s offensive line can neutralize Buffalo’s pass rush. If he can operate from a clean pocket, he has a path to an efficient passing performance, even against a turnover-hungry defense.
Suggest Picks

RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs has been a dynamic force in Detroit’s two-headed backfield this season, consistently delivering strong rushing and receiving performances. He has surpassed 60+ rushing yards in 11 of 13 games and has hit 40+ yards in every contest. His workload has been steady, with 11+ rushing attempts in all but one game. When factoring in both rushing and receiving, Gibbs has topped 70+ total yards in every game this season. The matchup against the Buffalo Bills’ defense appears promising for Gibbs. Buffalo has struggled against the run, allowing the 14th-most rushing yards per game (123), the 7th-highest yards per carry (4.72), and the 7th-highest explosive run rate (5.9%). These metrics highlight a defense vulnerable to big plays on the ground—an area where Gibbs thrives. Given his explosive running style and consistent dual-threat usage, Gibbs is well-positioned for another productive outing. The Bills' defensive weaknesses align with his skill set, making this a favorable matchup for the electrifying back.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ LR 17.5 Yards -130
‘O’ 90.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards -115

RB David Montgomery
David Montgomery's matchup against the Buffalo Bills presents an intriguing dynamic, particularly when compared to his teammate Jahmyr Gibbs. While Gibbs brings the flash with his speed and big-play potential, Montgomery offers the grit and power, often serving as the "thunder" to Gibbs' "lightning." From a rushing perspective, Montgomery may have a lower floor due to his less explosive running style, but his touchdown upside makes him a more appealing fantasy option, especially in goal-line situations. Montgomery has scored a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 games and has found the end zone in a staggering 77% of games this season. The Bills have struggled defensively against running backs, ranking 3rd in most receiving yards allowed per game to the position and 2nd in receptions allowed. This bodes well for Montgomery, who has seen increased involvement in the passing game recently. He’s recorded at least 3 receptions in each of the last 4 games and has seen 3 or more targets in 5 of his last 6 outings. Given the favorable matchup, it wouldn't be surprising to see both Montgomery and Gibbs heavily involved in both the running and receiving games. While Montgomery may not boast the same ceiling as Gibbs, his ability to find the end zone and contribute in the passing game makes him a reliable fantasy option in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’15.5 Receiving Yards -115
Anytime Touchdown Scorer -145

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown has had a somewhat quieter season compared to his past performances, but he's still been a reliable contributor, recording 40 or more receiving yards in each of his last 6 games. However, he's been limited to under 70 yards in 4 of those games, showing a dip in his usual production. A key aspect of his performance in this matchup against the Buffalo Bills will be how they defend him, as Buffalo runs zone coverage at the 9th highest rate in the league (73.7%).St. Brown has historically performed better against zone coverage, with a 26% target share, an impressive 82.7% catch rate, and a 31.7% first-read rate. In comparison, against man coverage, his target share drops to 19.6%, and his catch rate falls to 77.8%. These splits suggest that the Bills' zone-heavy defense could be an opportunity for St. Brown to take advantage, especially since he excels in these situations. Additionally, there have been notable recent performances from top receivers against the Bills, such as Puka Nacua (12 catches, 162 yards, and a touchdown) and Tyreek Hill (4 catches for 80 yards). This trend hints that St. Brown could be in for a strong showing in what looks like a favorable matchup, particularly at home in a game where the Lions might need to throw the ball more. It’s shaping up to be a solid bounce-back spot for St. Brown, who remains a top target in Detroit's offense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 67.5 Receiving Yards -113

WR Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams has shown a preference for performing better against man coverage, which aligns with his skill set as a deep threat with exceptional long speed. In man coverage, he has a solid 17.1% target share and a respectable 69.2% catch rate, along with a 22.4% first-read rate. In contrast, against zone coverage, his numbers dip slightly, with an 18.9% target share, 60% catch rate, and a 25.4% first-read rate. Despite the slight difference, Williams remains a dangerous weapon, particularly when he has the opportunity to leverage his speed against single coverage. Williams has been productive recently, surpassing his receiving yard mark in 3 of his last 4 games, and in 5 of 6 home games this season. At home, he's averaging a solid 85.3 receiving yards per game and has caught 4 or more receptions in 5 of those 6 games. Additionally, Williams has been a consistent deep threat at home, crossing his longest reception of 22.5 yards in 5 of 6 games. With Buffalo's defense likely to run a mix of coverages, Williams’ ability to exploit man coverage makes him a compelling option in this matchup. Given his recent success at home, he could be primed for a big play, particularly on deep throws, which may be the key to his production in this game.

Suggested Picks
LR ‘O’ 22.5 Receiving Yards -110

WR Tim Patrick
Tim Patrick has made a notable impact for the Detroit Lions over the past three weeks, with steadily increasing yardage totals—55, 48, and 43 yards in his last three games. His involvement has also grown in terms of snap share, as he has seen over a 65% snap share in the past two weeks, indicating a more prominent role in the offense. One of the most intriguing aspects of Patrick's recent production is his red-zone usage, where he has received at least one red-zone target in each of the last four games. In fact, he had two red-zone targets in the most recent game, resulting in two touchdowns, showcasing his ability to capitalize in scoring situations. This red-zone usage is particularly noteworthy for Patrick's fantasy potential, as his involvement in high-leverage areas of the field could be key in this matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Given the focus on his red-zone looks and the fact that he’s seen 4 or more targets in 3 of his last 4 games, Patrick is positioned as a potential sleeper, especially if the Lions look to capitalize on his ability to find the end zone. His recent performance and continued role in the red zone make him an interesting play, particularly in games where the Lions are likely to move the ball into scoring position.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown +380

TE Sam LaPorta
After a solid performance last week, Sam LaPorta finds himself in a more challenging matchup this week against the Buffalo Bills. While LaPorta has been a reliable target for the Lions, this week’s matchup presents some difficulties. The Bills have been tough against tight ends, allowing the 4th fewest receiving yards and 14th fewest receptions to the position. Even more concerning for LaPorta’s fantasy prospects is Buffalo’s stinginess in the red zone, where they have allowed just 3 touchdowns to tight ends all season. Given these numbers, LaPorta's ceiling appears more limited in this matchup. While he has been a consistent contributor for the Lions, this game looks like a potential fade spot, especially with the Bills' defense effectively limiting tight end production. LaPorta’s usage and involvement in the passing game are likely to remain, but the low touchdown upside and tough matchup against a defense that has stifled tight ends could make it difficult for him to produce at a high level this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ LR 16.5 Receiving Yards -109

Mannnn, this is going to be a good one and potentially a super bowl repeat. We know that DET is going to score and BUF has done the same all season. The over is high for a reason. Ultimately, I could see the Bills pulling out a win here if they get pressure of Goff and Allen continues to play at an MVP level. However, I think DET starts fast at home, like they normally do. If the Bills win, it feels like it’ll come in “play from behind” fashion. Similar to last week, except they are going to need a better performance from their defense.

Best Bet (Teaser: Bills +8.5/ 'O' 47.5 -110
Lean (DET 1st Half -1.5)
Detroit 30 Bills 27

Anytime Touchdown:

 
Josh Allen +125
Allen has a touchdown in each of his last 4 and is coming off back to back 2+ touchdown games. He’s the goal line back at the 1, has the mobility to break off a longer rushing touchdown and maybe he catches his own pass for one again? Allen is going to try and take over this game and the Bills are going to need it.

David Montgomery 1st Half TD +175
Yes, you can play his full game TD at -145, but hear me out. Monty almost always gets more early work in the game, including the opening series. Of his 12 touchdowns this season, 10 have come in the first half! That’s wild. Buffalo has allowed 8 rushing TD’s this season and 5 through the air.

First Touchdown Picks

Josh Allen +950
I mentioned that Allen is going to need to keep doing his thing to stay in this game and I think that starts early. The Bills are committed to using him as a goal line back and with the tush push. Allen has 5 touchdowns in the last 2 games.

David Montgomery +500
I’m not going to overthink this one. Monty is used first in the RB rotation and almost all of his scores have come in the first half. He will likely get the first drive and with the Bills weaker against the run, we could easily see Monty punch one in to kick off the scoring in this game.

Builder Parlay (+101)
J. Gibbs 70+ Rushing & Receiving Yards
J. Allen 25+ Rushing Yards
K. Shakir 25+ Receiving Yards

Longshots Parlay #1 (+1202)
K. Shakir 80+ Receiving Yards
J. Allen TD
DET Lions ML

Longshot Parlay #2 (+1905)
BUF Bills +8.5
DET 1st Half -1.5
D. Montgomery 1st Half TD
J. Gibbs 1st Half TD

QB Justin Herbert
After being held out of Wednesday practice, returning Thursday as a limited participant, he has fully shed his injury tag ahead of this weeks game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and will play as the Chargers fight to maintain playoff positioning after losing two of their last three games. It was a tough start to the season for Herbert. However, he's been throwing the ball well lately. Last week, without his number one option, Ladd McConkey and having Will Dissly exit with an injury on the play right before halftime, Herbert managed to still go 21/30 for 213 passing yards and one passing TD. This week, Herbert faces off against the Buccaneers, who're allowing the most completions (25.2), the second most pass attempts (37.6), the fourth most passing yards (270.2) and the 10th most passing TDs (1.6). Tampa Bay runs the most zone coverage (80.2%) in the league. Herbert, against zone coverage, ranks 17th in completion percentage (71%), 22nd in yards per game (157.8), but the ninth most yards per attempt (8.4). One thing Herbert has been great at this season is protecting the football. Herbert ranks 31st in the league in turnover-worth throw percentage (2.4%) and has just one interception on the season. And although the Buccaneers allow the most completions per game, they're picking off opposing QBs at the sixth-lowest rate on the season. With Herbert having just one interception on the season, he should be able to protect the ball against a team who isn't turning the ball over much this season.

Suggested Pick:
Justin Herbert u0.5 Interception (-130)

RB Gus Edwards
Gus Edwards has disappointed as the lead RB without JK Dobbins. In the two games without Dobbins, Edwards has put up 33 and 36 rushing yards, despite seeing over 50% of the RB carries in both games. He is a net zero in the passing game, and should start to lose carries to the younger Kimani Vidal before Dobbins returns. The Buccaneers bright spot on defence is their run defence. They allow the fourth-fewest rush attempts (18.5) and the eighth-fewest rushing yards (84.5). Tampa Bay runs man/gap 45.5% of the time, and give up a whopping 6.47 yards per carry (the most in the NFL). However, as we've already discussed, Gus has struggled in against each coverage this season. We might see some more Vidal this week, and see Edwards fazed out of this offence, especially in this tough matchup. What's unfortunate, is that there is no receiving back in this offence without Dobbins. In his absence, Edwards and Vidal both have just one target, with Edwards the only of the two to turn it into a reception. All this because the Buccaneers allow the most receptions (5.8) and the most receiving yards (45.1) to RBs this season. Could Edwards see one target and turn that into a reception? It's scary, but sure, let's bite.

Suggested Pick:
Gus Edwards o0.5 Reception (-150)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladddddd is backkkkkk.. Well, at least I hope. This offence needs him cause they clearly couldn't move the ball as well last week without him. Although, Joshua Palmer had a nice game with six receptions for 78 receiving yards in his absence. However, not having a passing option over the middle of the field, especially when your pass-catching RB is out is something you could tell Herbert missed. The Buccaneers are a great matchup against opposing WRs as they allow the fourth most receptions (13.7) and the ninth most receiving yards (155.9) to the position per game. With Tampa Bay running the most zone coverage in the league, this is just an alright matchup for Ladd. He's second in terms of target share against zone, only behind Will Dissly, yet still has the most targets. Ladd has a 73.7% catch rate against the coverage, recording 429 receiving yards for a 15.3 yards per reception and a 12.1 aDoT. McConkey is much better against man coverage catching 20 of 26 targets for a 16.0 yards per reception. McConkey lines up in the slot 63% of the time, and will likely draw the Tykee Smith matchup. Smith made his return last week and was targeted seven times, allowing three receptions for 24 receiving yards. However, before his injury, he allowed seven receptions on nine targets for 54 receiving yards to the Chiefs. So, regardless, it seems like Smith is good at limiting yards, but allows a lot of receptions. Which bodes true as the Buccaneers allow the fourth-highest catch rate (76.8%) to slot WRs. If Ladd is in, especially with no Dissly, McConkey should maintain his role as a high valued short area of the field target against a matchup allowing a lot of receptions to the area of the field he lines up. McConkey has recorded 6+ receptions in three straight games, averaging nine targets per game.

Suggested Pick:
Ladd McConkey o5.5 Receptions (-155)

WR Quentin Johnston
Who would have thought that Johnston would be able to step up in a game when his team needed him the most. His stat line as the presumed WR1 was mediocre with five receptions for 48 receiving yards but he had a TD. This was surprising for me to see, but Johnston actually has the best PFF grade against zone coverage, but really struggles with a 26.1% catch rate on 23 targets against man. In zone, Johnston has caught 20 of 26 targets for 347 receiving yards, a 17.4 yards per reception and seven receiving TDs. For a deep ball threat, he only has a 14.5 aDoT against the coverage, but has a team-high 7.6 average yards after catch per reception. Johnston lines up on the left 63% of the time, and will likely draw the Jamel Dean matchup. Dean is a pretty bad matchup for how Johnston plays. He is great at limiting yards after catch, allowing just 29 yards over his past three weeks despite allowing 10 receptions on 14 targets over that span. However, he has allowed opposing WRs to go for a 20+ yard reception in six of his last seven starts. Johnston has a 20+ yard reception in three of his past six games.

Suggested Pick:
Quinten Johnston 20+ Longest Reception (-115)

TE Stone Smartt
There really isn't much data to go off of for Smartt as he hasn't recorded more than one reception before last game when Dissly went out. However, he was utilized in this offence as he caught all three of his targets for 54 receiving yards. Smartt has a great matchup too as the Buccaneers allow the seventh-most receptions (5.9) and the second-most receiving yards (70.5). While Smartt should receive the Dissly role, some work from last week for Smartt is likely to get taken away with the return of McConkey. However, the matchup still looks too good to pass on. The Buccaneers have allowed opposing starting TEs to go over their receiving yard line in five of their last seven games.

Suggested Pick:
Stone Smartt o24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Baker Mayfield
Last week as a little too close for comfort for Mayfield and the Buccaneers, as they were narrowly beating the Raiders. That was until the fourth quarter once Aidan O'Connell was carted off with an injury and Desmond Ridder came in relief. The Buccaneers scored two TDs in the final nine minutes of the game to steal the victory. Mayfield had a good day through the air, though, as he finished 18/29 with 295 passing yards, three passing TDs and two interceptions. During the season, Mayfield had the third-highest completion percentage (70.2%), passing TDs (28), and the fifth-highest passing yards (3,329). This week, he faces off against the Chargers defence, who allow the 16th-most completions (), the 11th-most pass attempts (33.6), but the eighth-fewest passing yards (220.6) per game. Like the Buccaneers, the Chargers are a heavy zone coverage team, running the third most zone coverage (77.5%) in the league. Mayfield against zone ranks fifth-highest in completion percentage (74.2%) and passing yards per game (184.8), 10th in yards per attempt but has the 36th ranks aDoT against the coverage (5.9). This kind of plays perfectly into Mayfield's strength as the Chargers allow the ninth-lowest aDoT (7.2) while in zone coverage across the league. Baker's low aDoT, along with facing a team who has allowed opposing QBs to complete 24 passes in three of their previous four games in what projects to be a close game, should lead us to him seeing another efficient game through the air. However, the Chargers allow the eighth-lowest completion percentage (63.5%) on the season, which scares me off his completions. His pass attempts on the other hand make more sense considering the Buccaneers might be without All-Star rookie running back Bucky Irving, and need to rely on Mayfield's arm. The Chargers have allowed those same three passers to go over their completions to go over their pass attempts.

Suggested Pick:
Baker Mayfield o34.5 Passing Attempts (-110)

RB Bucky Irving
After an explosive game on the ground against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13, carrying the ball 25 times for 152 receiving yards and a touchdown, adding three receptions and 33 receiving yards through the air, Irving let a lot of people down in Week 14 against the Raiders when he carried the ball just four times for three rushing yards. It later came out that Irving had injuries to both his hip and back, which held him out of the contest. Irving failed the practice on Wednesday and Thursday; however, he returned on Friday in a limited session. We aren't expecting him to play, and even if he does, wouldn't suggest playing him in any regard given his limitations with his injury.

Suggested Pick:
PASS

RB Rachaad White
Who's going to step up without Irving? It has to be Rachaad White. With Irving only recording four touches last week, White dominated the carries, with 17 to Sean Tucker's three. It was actually a good game for White on the ground as he recorded 90 rushing yards and a rushing TD on those 17 carries. Mainly listed as an inefficient RB –– averaging a sub 4.0 yards per carry in both of his first two seasons –– White has averaged an above 5.0 yards per carry in four of his previous eight games, recording at least 10+ rush attempts in all but one of those games. The Chargers allow the 18th-most rushing yards (92.8) to RBs but have allowed just three scores on the season. The Chargers run man/gap 44% of the time, which is a great advantage for White on the ground as he averages 6.2 yards per carry against man/gap compared to 2.5 yards per carry against zone run defence. Through the air, the Chargers allow the ninth-most receptions (5), the 20th-most receiving yards (30.8), but the second-most targets (7) to RBs on the season. White has the fourth most targets on the Buccaneers, good for a 93.2% catch rate, averaging 3.4 receptions and 26.8 receiving yards per game. White has a -1.9 aDoT on the season, running 87.1% of his routes out of the backfield. The Chargers allow the eighth most receptions (58) and the 13th-highest catch rate to receivers out of the backfield.

Suggested Pick:
(With Irving) Rachaad White o2.5 Receptions
(Without Irving) Rachaad White over Rushing & Receiving Yards up to 100.

WR Mike Evans
Mike Evans is still on the hunt for his 11th consecutive 1,000 yard season. He got a decent chunk into that last week finishing with 69 (nice) receiving yards. Now, he's still got a ways to go, needing 410 receiving yards through the final four games of the season. Mayfield and the entire Buccaneers offence should be well aware of this and should be force-feeding him the ball. But is this the matchup to do it in? The Chargers don't allow much through the air to opposing TEs, averaging the sixth-fewest receptions (10.9) but the 18th-most receiving yards (142.6). With the Chargers running the third-most zone coverage, this isn't great for Evans as he mostly dominates man. However, he still has the highest targets share against zone, resulting in a 67.7% catch rate but 314 receiving yards and three receiving TDs. He also leads the Buccaneers in yards per reception (15) and aDoT (14.2) against the coverage. Evans lines up on left 44% of the time, and will likely draw the Kristian Fulton matchup. Fulton had a good week last week limiting the Chiefs WRs to just six receiving yards on two receptions. However, before that, he allowed 45+ receiving yards in three straight games. The Chargers are pretty good against outside WRs, allowing the seventh-lowest catch rate (58.2%) but the 13th-highest aDoT (11.6) and the 19th-highest yards per reception (12.7). While we are expecting heavy volume for Evans as he chases his milestone, he might have a better time attaining it in a big play down the field, which lines up well for this matchup. Evans has recorded a 25+ yard reception in four straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Mike Evans o22.5 Longest Reception (-115)

WR Sterling Shepard
We went in depth with Evans, so we'll keep Shepard short and sweet. Shepard has filled into the slot role once Godwin was lost for the year, and while it wasn't a great start, he's definitely became more acclimated in the offence. Without Godwin, he's run in the slot 50% of his games in five of the six games, with 5+ targets in five of those, recording four receptions on six targets last week for 63 receiving yards. Over that span, Shepard is running 50% of his routes from the slot; he'll often draw the Ja'Sir Taylor matchup. Taylor is not a full time player for this Chargers defence. He has played under 26 or fewer snaps in three straight games, but has allowed a catch on all four of his times targeted. The Chargers allow the 20th-highest catch rate (70.2%) and the 15th-highest receiving yards (75.8) per game but the fifth-highest aDoT (9.7) to slot WRs. Now, while we're expecting volume for Evans, the high aDoT to slot WRs should help Shepard sneak past defenders and build off his high receiving yard game from last week. Shepard has recorded 40+ receiving yards in two straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Sterling Shepard o33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Cade Otton
Man, I miss the old Cade Otton (and so do multiple of my fantasy teams). In what looked like a breakout season for Otton, he's fallen from grace and back to the Otton of old. Now, he did post 70 receiving yards on just three receptions last week. However, the previous three games before that he recorded just 85 receiving yards on 10 receptions. This week might not be better for Otton yardage wise, as the Chargers allow the 14th-fewest receiving yards (47.5) to TEs this season. However, they do give up the 13th-most receptions (5.5). Otton lines up inline 50.1% of his routes. To inline receivers, the Chargers allow the 10th-highest catch rate (80.4%), but the 18th-most receiving yards per game (26.4). While his volume might be there, his yardage should continue to remain down.

Suggested Pick:
Cade Otton u41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Now, this should be a great game with tons of playoff implications. The Buccaneers control their own destiny in terms of winning their division, while a win for the Chargers all but locks up their Wild Card position. It should be a close game regardless, but traveling accross the country to play the LA who's coming off a disappointing loss just seems like a good bounceback spot for the Chargers, especially if Ladd McConkey returns. Buccaneers should keep this game close, though.

Pick - Chargers -2.5
Lean - Under 45.5
Chargers 23 - Buccaneers 20

Anytime TD Picks

Rachaad White TD (+110)
Like we mentioned, if White has the backfield to himself, he should get plenty of work, both on the ground and through the air. White has scored in six of his last seven games, including two last week when Irving was out. He also has six red zone rush attempts over his previous two games, and the Chargers allow 0.77 TDs per game to RBs.

Quentin Johnston (+175)
His seven receiving TDs in zone coverage is too impressive to overlook. Johnston is a streaky scorer, having TDs in back to back games three times. That lines up nicely for this matchup as he scored last game. The Buccaneers allow 0.92 TDs to WRs per game.

First Touchdown Picks

Mike Evans First TD (+800)
The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in eight of their 13 games this season. Seven of those TDs have gone to WRs, with White and Sean Tucket finding the end zone for the RBs. Evans has caught four of those six TDs, Godwin caught three of them. So, without Godwin, Evans should get more looks, especially early.

Kimani Vidal First TD (+1400)
I'm fully fading Gus Edwards in this matchup. It's scary, because Edwards is very much a power back, but with his struggles, they might reward the rookie early. And the Chargers aren't shy to do this, as Vidal has the first TD in one of his five games already this season.

Parlay 1: +165 odds on bet365

Baker Mayfield 30+ Pass Attempts

Mike Evans 60+ Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5

Parlay 2: +190 odds on bet365

Justin Herbert u0.5 Interceptions

Ladd McConkey 5+ Receptions

Quentin Johnston 20+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: +700 odds on bet365

Rachaad White TD

Mike Evans 5+ Receptions

Ladd McConkey 7+ Receptions

QB Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson faces a tough challenge against the Philadelphia Eagles’ elite secondary, which has been one of the best in the NFL this season. The Eagles have allowed the 3rd-fewest passing yards per game (199.5), the 5th-lowest completion rate (61.7%), and the 7th-lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Their defensive backfield has consistently stifled passing attacks, making this a difficult matchup for Wilson and the Steelers’ passing game. Despite the tough opponent, Wilson has been steady for a surging Steelers team this season. He has surpassed 190 passing yards in six of his last seven games, while throwing for two or more touchdowns in four of those contests. He has also protected the football well, with only three interceptions during that stretch. His ability to make smart decisions will be crucial against a Philadelphia defense that has forced the 13th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate (3.3%). One challenge Wilson may face is game flow. The Eagles love to control the clock, particularly in the second half, using their dominant rushing attack to wear down opponents and limit opposing quarterbacks’ opportunities. This could cap Wilson’s passing volume, making it difficult for him to rack up significant yardage or multiple scores. Overall, this is not a matchup that lends itself to optimistic expectations for Wilson’s passing stats, especially without their top WR Pickens, who is likely not playing. While he has been consistent and effective this season, the combination of Philadelphia’s pass defense prowess and potential time-of-possession control makes this a tough environment for a standout performance.

Suggested Picks
‘U’197.5 Passing Yards -113

RB Najee Harris
Najee Harris has been a steady presence for the Pittsburgh Steelers this season, providing a reliable floor with 40+ rushing yards in each of his last 10 games and in all seven contests with Russell Wilson under center. His consistent workload, including 16+ rushing attempts in his past seven games, underscores his importance to the Steelers' offensive approach. However, Harris faces a tough challenge against a stout Philadelphia Eagles run defense. The Eagles allow the 8th-fewest rushing yards per game (105.8), the 10th-lowest yards per carry (4.3), and the 6th-lowest rushing touchdown rate (2.8%). While Harris has found the end zone in each of his last two games, Philadelphia's red-zone resistance makes scoring opportunities more difficult to come by. Philadelphia's one relative weakness against the run has been allowing explosive plays, ranking 11th-highest in explosive run rate (5.6%). However, Harris is not known for his big-play ability, making this less relevant to his potential success. Adding to the challenge, the Eagles have forced the second-most fumbles by rushers (10) and boast the 8th-highest stuff rate (40.4%), indicating they frequently disrupt plays in the backfield. Given the tough matchup, Harris’ path to production will likely rely on volume rather than efficiency. Betting on his overs might be risky in this context, but including a lower rushing total in a parlay could be a safer approach, given his heavy workload and the Steelers’ commitment to feeding him the ball.
Suggested Picks
Use 40+ Rushing Yards as a parlay piece

RB Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren has emerged as the more explosive runner for the Pittsburgh Steelers this season and has been heavily utilized in the passing game. His versatility has made him a reliable playmaker, clearing his rushing yardage mark in six of his last seven games and recording 19+ receiving yards in each of his last five outings. Warren’s role as a pass-catcher is well-established. He has logged 2+ receptions in 10 of 11 games and has seen 3+ targets in seven of his last eight contests. With Russell Wilson under center, Warren has earned 3+ targets in six of seven games, including 4+ in each of the past four. However, the matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles’ stout run defense complicates his rushing outlook. The Eagles rank among the league’s best in limiting rushing production, making it difficult to trust Warren on the ground. Given his consistent involvement in the passing game and the Steelers’ likely need to play from behind, Warren’s receiving props seem like the safer betting angle in this tough matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions -146

WR Calvin Austin
Calvin Austin III is poised for an increased role this week with George Pickens likely to miss the game, but stepping into this expanded role comes with a difficult challenge. The Philadelphia Eagles' defense has been tough on wide receivers, allowing the 3rd fewest receiving yards per game this season (199.5), the 3rd lowest catch rate (66.1%), and the 2nd lowest yards per reception (9.94). This creates a tough environment for any receiver, including Austin, who has typically been a low-volume target, averaging just 3.2 targets per game. While his usage should increase with Pickens out, it may still be difficult for him to even clear his low receiving yard line of 25.5 yards, particularly against a defense as stingy as Philadelphia’s. Austin does spend most of his time in the slot, and while the Eagles have allowed more receiving yards to slot receivers compared to outside wideouts, they still rank 14th in fewest receiving yards allowed to the position. This further limits Austin’s potential, especially in a game where the Steelers' passing game is already likely to be challenged. Given the tough matchup against a well-rounded Eagles defense and Austin's limited history of volume, this looks like a fade spot for him. While the opportunity is there, the odds of a productive outing are slim, making him a risky play in fantasy this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 2.5 Receptions -140

WR Van Jefferson
Van Jefferson faces a tough challenge in this matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. As an outside receiver, he will likely see coverage from one of the Eagles' elite cornerbacks, which makes this an uphill battle for him. Philadelphia has been stellar against outside wide receivers, allowing the 4th fewest receiving yards per game to the position. They also rank 8th in fewest yards per reception (12.13) and allow the fewest yards after the catch per reception (3.24), further complicating Jefferson's ability to make any significant plays. In addition to the tough matchup, Jefferson has not been a heavily involved part of the Pittsburgh offense this season, which further lowers his fantasy ceiling. Given his lack of involvement and the Eagles' ability to shut down outside receivers, this looks like a very difficult spot for Jefferson. He is unlikely to have a significant impact on the game, making him a risky and probably avoidable option this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 23.5 Receiving Yards -113

TE Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth has been on a bit of a roll lately, surpassing his receiving yard line in each of his last 3 games, but this week’s matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles presents significant challenges. The Eagles have been one of the toughest defenses against tight ends, allowing the 5th fewest receiving yards and the 7th fewest receptions to the position. Additionally, Philadelphia ranks 17th in checkdown throw rate, suggesting that they don't give up easy completions to tight ends on short routes—something that could limit Freiermuth’s opportunities. Another concern is Freiermuth’s lack of consistent target volume, especially with Mitch Trubisky (likely to start in place of the injured Kenny Pickett) under center. Freiermuth has only exceeded 3 targets twice in 7 games with Trubisky, making his target share unreliable at best. This inconsistency, combined with a tough matchup against a strong Eagles defense, makes Freiermuth a risky play this week. Despite his recent success, the combination of limited targets and a stifling defense is enough to make him a fade for most props.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 35.5 Receiving Yards -115

QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts faces a challenging matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has been one of the league’s most formidable units this season, despite allowing 38 points to the Bengals a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh ranks 15th in passing yards allowed per game (235.2), but their efficiency metrics stand out. They have allowed the 26th-highest completion rate (62.3%) and the second-lowest passer rating (79.2) to opposing quarterbacks, demonstrating how difficult it is to pass effectively against them. The Steelers’ ball-hawking secondary ranks third in interceptions (15) and has allowed only 14 passing touchdowns all season. Their ability to force turnovers is further emphasized by their 5th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate (4.7%). Additionally, they apply consistent pressure, ranking 8th in sacks, which could complicate Hurts’ ability to operate comfortably in the pocket. Hurts’ mobility might also be limited against Pittsburgh, as they have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. This could force him to rely more on his arm, a challenge given Pittsburgh’s defensive coverage capabilities. Complicating matters is Hurts’ recent form. He hasn’t quite looked like the elite quarterback he was before signing his lucrative contract, showing occasional struggles with decision-making and efficiency. Against a defense as disciplined and opportunistic as Pittsburgh’s, Hurts will need to be at his best to produce a strong performance.
Suggest Picks
‘U’ 9.5 Carries -105

RB Saquon Barkley
Fading Saquon Barkley in his current form seems like a risky proposition. He has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in four straight games and in seven of his last eight, showcasing elite consistency. His dual-threat ability has been on full display, with over 150 total yards from scrimmage in five contests this season. However, this week’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers presents significant challenges.

Pittsburgh’s run defense has been among the best in the league, allowing the 4th-fewest rushing yards per game (91.4) and the 6th-lowest yards per carry (4.1). They’ve also excelled at limiting big plays, ranking 7th in explosive run rate allowed (3.4%). These numbers suggest Barkley will have to work hard for every yard on the ground. The one area where Pittsburgh has shown some vulnerability is in rushing touchdowns, surrendering the 11th-highest touchdown rate to running backs (3.8%). This could provide Barkley with scoring opportunities if the Eagles can sustain drives and get into the red zone. As for Barkley’s receiving potential, Pittsburgh’s defense is relatively average against running backs in the passing game, ranking near the middle of the league in both receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. This could be where Barkley finds his most productive path, especially if the Eagles focus on quick passes to neutralize the Steelers’ aggressive front. Ultimately, while this is not a favorable matchup on paper, Barkley’s current form and versatility make him difficult to fade. His ability to contribute as both a rusher and receiver keeps him firmly in play, even against a stout Pittsburgh defense.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 13.5 Receiving Yards -109

WR A.J. Brown
AJ Brown has faced some frustration in recent weeks, with fewer than 70 receiving yards in his last two games, and his comments about the Philadelphia Eagles' passing game being a problem reflect some tension with quarterback Jalen Hurts. Despite this, the matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers presents an opportunity for Brown to get back on track. The Steelers play a decent amount of man coverage (12th highest rate), which is a scenario that typically favors Brown, given his elite ability to beat defenders in one-on-one situations. However, there is some uncertainty around Brown’s recent production and his chemistry with Hurts. While it’s possible the Eagles could try to force the ball to Brown more in this game, especially with their recent struggles in the passing game, the lack of consistent connection could still limit his upside. This makes his receiving yards line a tough call—while I can see a scenario where Brown sees increased targets, I think the line may be appropriately high given the recent issues. Instead of betting on his yardage, I’d take a closer look at his touchdown prop. Brown has only 1 touchdown in his last 7 games, but if the Eagles focus on getting him involved more heavily, he could be a key target inside the red zone, making his touchdown odds more appealing.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown +150

WR DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith has been struggling in recent weeks, with receiving lines of just 14, 29, and 37 yards over the last three games. Over the past seven weeks, he’s exceeded 6 targets only once, highlighting his limited role in the offense recently. Given these trends, his receiving yardage and reception lines look fairly accurate for this matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The primary concern with betting on Smith in this game is the overall game script. Both teams are likely to focus on ball control and rely heavily on the run game, which could limit the passing volume for both teams. While the absence of Dallas Goedert could open up some extra opportunities for Smith, especially in the middle of the field, even with the potential for an additional target or two, the over on 4.5 receptions doesn't feel particularly enticing—even at plus money. Unless there’s a significant shift in the game script, with one team pulling ahead and increasing the passing volume, it’s hard to see Smith hitting that reception mark in this slower-paced, run-heavy contest. For now, this looks like a spot to avoid betting on his receptions.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Grant Calcaterra
With Dallas Goedert out, Grant Calcaterra has seen an increased role in the Philadelphia offense, playing nearly every snap (~90% snap share). This expanded role should provide him with more opportunities in the passing game, and his involvement has shown promise—he’s cleared the 22.5 receiving yards line in 2 of 4 games without Goedert. While Calcaterra’s yardage potential is limited, the fact that he's consistently on the field makes him an intriguing option, especially if Jalen Hurts needs a reliable outlet when pressured by Pittsburgh’s defense. Pittsburgh allows the 10th most receptions to tight ends and the 15th most receiving yards, indicating vulnerability in defending the position. However, the Steelers only rank 24th in checkdown rate allowed (8.1%), which suggests they don't often allow easy, short completions to tight ends. Despite this, Calcaterra’s role on the field should still present him with opportunities, particularly in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Given the pressure Pittsburgh can generate, Hurts may look to Calcaterra as a safety valve, making his reception total more appealing than betting on his yardage. This makes the over on receptions a more attractive play than the over on receiving yards.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions -105

PIT up through 11.5 and take the under up to 50.5. I could see PHI winning by a touchdown here, but it still should remain close. PIT has not lost by more than 5 all season.

Best Bet (Teaser - PIT +11.5/Total Under 50.5)
Lean (PIT +5.5 -115)
Eagles 24 Steelers 20

Anytime Touchdown: 

Mike Williams +550
This seems like the perfect opportunity to get big Mike involved. No Pickens and Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin aren’t big bodies in the end zone. Williams has only received a 30% snap share in PIT, but that should jump up with Pickens out.

Jalen Hurts -105
You shouldn’t be surprised to see him here. He’s the goal line back and has scored in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging over a TD per game. Still getting a nice value here given how good the defense is.

1st Touchdown: 

Najee Harris +750
Harris has been solid of late and the clear option as the goal line back. PHI hasn’t allowed a high TD rate this season to RB’s, but we know PIT will want a run-heavy script and protect the ball around the goal line. Harris should be in line for some red zone carries in this one.

Saquon Barkley +330
I know, chalky… However, I think we are still getting a nice price here on Barkley. He has scored the first touchdown four times this season. He’s also been stopped on the 1-yard line a number of times this season, leading to a Hurt tush push. That’s something that is not sustainable. I’ll take the workhorse at a good value.

Builder Parlay (+106)
PIT Steelers +11.5
Jaylen Warren 2+ Receptions
Total Under 52.5

Longshot Parlay #1 (+786)
Wilson ‘U’ 195.5 Pass Yards
V. Jefferson ‘U’ 23.5 Rec Yards
Barkley 25+ Receiving Yards

Longshot Parlay #2 (+835)
PIT ML
Jaylen Warren 3+ Receptions
Barkley 100+ R&R Yards

QB Jordan Love
Whether it be due to game script or matchup, Jordan Love has not been airing the ball out like he had last season and even earlier this season as of late, going under 30 pass attempts in 5 out of his last 6 games. Last week, he threw just 20 passes against a Lions defense that has one of the bigger pass funnels in the NFL. He has, however, been very efficient when throwing the ball, averaging 8.3 YPA, which is the 6th highest rate in the NFL. Against the Seahawks, he will see a defense that is in man coverage on 31.4% of their defensive snaps, which is the 10th highest rate in the NFL. Overall, Love has not been as good against man coverage, as he has just a 6.26 YPA against man, which ranks 26th in the NFL out of 39 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks against man coverage. One thing that Love has done well, however, is complete passes deeper downfield, as 15.6% of his passes travel 15 or more air yards downfield. This has been a weakness for the Seattle defense at time as well, with the Seahawks allowing a 41.2% completion rate on passes that travel at least 10 air yards (7th most in the NFL) It is tough to say how consistent Love will be on Sunday, but I do think his chances are good of completing some deep passes.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 37.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115)

RB Josh Jacobs
With some exceptions earlier in the year where backup RB Emmanuel Wilson got some significant carries for the Packers, Josh Jacobs has absolutely dominated the Packers backfield on a volume basis. Jacobs has handled over 72% of the teams’ rush share in 3 of the last 4 weeks. Last week, he handled 90% of the rush share among the Packers’ RBs. The Seahawks defense has been vulnerable since their bye week against the run. Since the bye, they are giving up 4.41 YPC, which ranks 12th in the NFL over the span. What is really interesting about Jacobs here is how active he is in the red zone. Last week against the Lions he scored 3 TDs. He also has scored 8 times in his last 4 games, and at least 1 TD in 7 of his last 9 games. He has a 77.3% rush share with the Packers inside the 5 yard line, which ranks 7th in the NFL. I am looking at Jacobs seeing the ball often when the Packers are in scoring range, and would not mind paying the juice on this.
Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (-155)
‘O’ 1.5 TDs (+390)

WR Jayden Reed
The Packers WRs corps has been tough to figure out in terms of who will see the majority of the targets among this group on a game by game basis. Heading into last week against the Lions, Reed was seen as a likely target for a big game due to the Lions’ defense struggles against the slot position. Reed did not deliver at all, and actually did not record a single catch despite being on the field for 62.5% of dropbacks. With only one target, we can imagine Reed was not happy and that the Packers will get the ball to him a little more here this week. The Seahawks may not be the best matchup for Reed on the surface due to their high rate of man coverage, lining up in man on 31.4% of their snaps, which is the 10th most in the NFL. Reed has just a 1.20 YPRR against man, which ranks 5th among Packers WRs. This could be a solid fade spot for Reed on the surface due to that fact alone, but I have to pass on this given how inconsistent he has been and how unpredictable the Packers in general have been in spreading out their snaps and targets across this group.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Christian Watson
One area that the Seahawks defense has struggled with a bit more is against deep ball oriented WRs, and typically ones who line up on the boundaries. The Seahawks have allowed a 41% completion % on passes that have travelled at least 10+ yards in the air, which is the 7th highest in the NFL. They also are giving up 8.20 YPA to targets to wide alignments, which ranks 15th most out of the 32 teams. Watson best fits the profile of a player who can burn them in this regard. He has thrived against man coverage all year, with a team high 3.82 YPRR on the season. Watson also has an insanely high aDOT of 18.8 against man coverage. I mentioned earlier that I thought Love was going to test the Seahawks defense downfield. Watson would certainly be the leading candidate in my mind to come up on the receiving end of one of these deep balls, and could easily end up in the end zone on one of these passes as well.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+230)

TE Tucker Kraft
Kraft is coming off an eventful Thursday night game last week against the Lions, a matchup in which he grabbed a TD, had 41 receiving yards, and got into a well documented jawing match with Lions DB Kerby Joseph before the game even started. The Seahawks have had some struggles against TEs this season as we look ahead to this game. They have given up 7.3 yards per target to the TE position, which ranks 15th out of 32 NFL teams. They also have given up the 10th most yards per game to the TE position, at 58.7 yards against. What I am looking at the most however, is how TEs fair in the red zone against the Seahawks, which have a 2.9% TD rate allowed to TEs, which ranks 9th highest in the NFL. Looking at Kraft, he is seeing the 8th highest target rate in the NFL among all TEs, with 13 total targets and 11 receptions. Given the fact that he had to split targets with Luke Musgrave early in the year, this is quite impressive.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+270)

QB Geno Smith
After his breakout season two seasons ago, Smith has put together a solid run since then as well, and is in the middle of an up and down third year as the Seahawks starter. He has a nice 7.45 YPA, which ranks 17th out of 45 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks on the season. However, he has also been far too loose with the football, and has thrown 12 interceptions in comparison to just 14 touchdown passes. Outside of that, he also has been very accurate, with a 69.5% completion rate that ranks 6th in the NFL. Against the Packers, he will see a very zone heavy defense. The Packers are in zone coverage on 75.9% of their defensive snaps, which ranks 4th in the NFL. Smith has been right on par against zone coverage, with 7 TDs, 7 INTs, and a YPA of 7.64. Green Bay has been able to generate a decent amount of pressure this year, getting heat on the QB on 30.9% of the opponent’s dropbacks. This will be key in this matchup, as pressure has really forced Smith into a lot of crucial mistakes. He has thrown 10 out of his 12 interceptions this season under pressure, and has been held to just a 58.8 passer rating, which is the 4th worst in the NFL. Look for the Packers to force Smith into a crucial turnover here.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 INT (-120)

RB Zach Charbonnet / RB Kenneth Walker III

While ideally, Kenneth Walker has been the Seahawks’ lead back this season, he was forced to miss last week due to a calf injury. He is listed as questionable this week and his status is crucial to any bets made on Seahawks RBs in this game. Last week, Zach Charbonnet stepped up nicely in his absence, tallying 29 total touches between rushes and catches, with 193 total rushing + receiving yards. Against Green Bay, the Seattle run game should see a tougher challenge, as this defense is only allowing 4.26 yards per carry to opposing RBs, which is the 13th lowest in the NFL. They also have the HIGHEST stuff rate in the NFL, at 50.6% of opponent rushes being held near the line of scrimmage for gains of 3 yards or less. It could be a tough matchup here for Seattle backs, and opportunities that are profitable could arise before kick-off, but without knowing what the rush share of the Seattle backfield will look like, this is a pass.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

JSN has been on an absolute tear over the 2nd half of the season. He has gone over 69 receiving yards in 5 consecutive games, including one massive 180 yard game against the Rams. Not only has Smith-Njigba been effective, but he has actually over took even DK Metcalf when both are on the field, with the highest percentage of route run on dropbacks at 88.5% over Metcalf’s 87.7%. He has not been quite as good against zone coverage, which the Packers are in frequently, but still solid drawing 1.81 yards per route run against zone on the year. The Packers have been solid against slot WRs, and JSN is lined up at slot on 85.7% of his snaps. The Packers are allowing only 7.4 yards per target to slot WRs, which ranks as the 7th lowest allowed in the NFL. The Packers are in Cover-2 at the 4th highest rate in the NFL. JSN, meanwhile, has only a 17.5% target share against Cover-2. This is tough to do given how hot he has been, but I think this is a sell high spot on Smith-Njigba.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 5.5 Receptions (+115)

WR DK Metcalf
Despite DK Metcalf seeing a decline in volume with the rise of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this offense, there are some reasons to be hopeful for Metcalf in this specific matchup against the Packers. To begin with, the Packers success against WRs who predominantly line up wide, where Metcalf is on 85.9% of his snaps, has come partially on the back of CB Jaire Alexander. However, Alexander how been in and out all season with injury, and although he is questionable in this game, it is hard to tell how effective he will be, or if he will even play his typical snap count. With the attention likely focused on Smith-Njigba due to his recent performance, this could be a spot for Metcalf to provide a spark to the Seahawks offense with the slot position under wraps from the Packers defense.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 65.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Noah Fant
The Packers defense has struggled at points this year against the tight end position. The Packers have allowed an average of 6 receptions per game to the position, which is the 7th highest rate in the NFL. Although the Seahawks receivers get the bulk of the targets from Geno, Fant does have a respectable 10.5% target share, which has also spiked up to 13% exactly for 4 consecutive games. Fant has a low aDOT of only 5.6, as well as a high catch rate of 84.6%. This makes him an ideal checkdown or underneath target for several short receptions underneath against this zone heavy Packers defense. Fant has caught at least 3 balls in 6 consecutive games, but with the Packers struggles in defending this position, I think we can expect another consistent performance from Fant in this matchup with Green Bay.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-130)

Sunday Night in Seattle is no easy task with the deafening noise from the 12th man raining down onto the field. With that in mind, this Packers offense has really found its groove as of late. Yes, it struggled at times last week against the Lions, but against one of the better teams, if not the best in the NFL. I expect a quick rebound from Love here, especially considering the favorable matchup for players like Christian Watson downfield to expose this Seattle defense, as well as from the consistency of Josh Jacobs on the ground.

Best Bet: ‘O’ 46.5
Lean: Packers -2.5
Packers 27 Seahawks 21

Anytime TD

(Packers) Josh Jacobs -155
Last week against the Lions Jacobs scored 3 TDs. He also has scored 8 times in his last 4 games, and at least 1 TD in 7 of his last 9 games. He has a 77.3% rush share with the Packers inside the 5 yard line, which ranks 7th in the NFL. I am looking at Jacobs seeing the ball often when the Packers are in scoring range, and would not mind paying the juice on this.

(Packers) Christian Watson +230
The Seahawks have allowed a 41% completion % on passes that have travelled at least 10+ yards in the air, which is the 7th highest in the NFL. They also are giving up 8.20 YPA to targets to wide alignments, which ranks 15th most out of the 32 teams. Watson best fits the profile of a player who can burn them on a post route for a TD.

First TD

(Seahawks) Jaxon Smith-Njigba +1200
Despite this being not the best matchup for JSN, he has proven to be a player that Geno looks to deep in opponent’s territory, and with his first TD all the way at +1200 this seems like great value. He has seen 9 total red zone targets this year, and this does not even factor in hie explosiveness from outside the red zone. Also, he has come down with a first TD earlier in the year.

(Packers) Josh Jacobs +390
Jacobs has a total of 43 red zone targets or rush attempts on the season, which is an extremely high rate. I mentioned that he has scored 8 TDs in his last 4 games, and I am not sure why he wouldn’t be looked at early in this matchup to finish off an early drive. Jacobs is already responsible for one first TD this season.

Parlay 1 +450
Geno Smith ‘O’ 0.5 INT
Jaxson Smith-Njigba ‘U’ 5.5 Receptions
Josh Jacobs ATD

Parlay 2 +1210
Josh Jacobs 1st TD
Christian Watson ‘O’ 44.5 Receiving Yards
Noah Fant ‘O’ 2.5 Receptions

QB Caleb Williams
Last year's number-one overall pick showed some promise in the three weeks before last in what were all big games against the three division mates who all had just a handful of losses between them at the time. Williams led the Bears to field goal range against the Packers, but it was blocked; an overtime loss to the Vikings and into field goal range, but inexcusable clock management handed them yet another loss. Williams fell back down to a rookie level last week against the 49ers as although he had a 73.9% completion percentage, he threw for just 134 passing yards. What he has been good at is finding the end zone. He has 2+ passing TDs in three straight games –– one of those games coming against the Vikings, who he faces this week. In that game, he went 32/47 for 340 passing yards and two passing TDs. This Vikings defence allows the second most completions (24.5), the most pass attempts (38.2) and the third-most passing yards (270.8) per game this season. The Vikings run the sixth-most zone coverage (74.9%) in the league. Williams struggles in completion percentage, converting 67.6% of his passes and the 25th-most passing yards (152.8) and the 32nd-highest yards per attempt (67.1) per game against zone coverage. In games where the Bears have been more than a field goal underdog, This game projects to be another game where the Williams is going to have to use his arm, and he's proven he can in this matchup. Given the fact these two teams have already played, and Williams had success doing so, we're going to trust Williams to bounce back after his poor performance against the 49ers. Plus, they really might need to considering their RB room is hurting with D'Andre Swift holding a questionable tag heading into the game, and Roschon Johnson having already been ruled out with his concussion.

Suggested Pick:
Caleb Williams o32.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

RB D'Andre Swift
Swift holds a questionable tag coming into Monday night. While he didn't participate in Thursday's or Friday's practice, he logged a limited session on Saturday, indicating there's a high likelihood he'll play. It makes sense to give him rest if he's ailing an injury considering backup RB Roschon Johnson has already ruled out with a concussion. Swift had a hot stretch of games from Week 4-11, where he recorded 50+ rushing yards in each game, 70+ in five of those games and 90+ in three. But over the past three weeks, he's failed to even hit 40 yards rushing. Now, this probably coincides with the schedule getting tougher, as he played a stretch against favourable RB matchups. The start of his decline came in Week 12 when the Bears faced the Vikings. In that game, he had 30 rushing yards on 13 attempts, for 2.3 yards per carry. Which makes sense, as the Vikings are one of the tougher defences to run on. They allow the third-fewest rush attempts (18.2) and fourth-fewest rushing yards (72.3) per game. Minnesota runs zone concept 56.4% of the time, allowing 4.48 yards per carry. This isn't great for Swift, as he averages 3.32 yards per carry against the coverage. Despite the minimal depth behind him leading to a lot of volume, Swift should continue to struggle on the ground.
Suggested Pick:
D'Andre Swift u54.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

WR DJ Moore
Moore has had a tough year but has turned in on as of late. From Week 6-10, Moore didn't top 40 receiving yards in a single game. However, lately, he's been decent, recording 90+ in two of the following four games, adding two TDs over that span. Moore did have his best game of the season when he played the Vikings in Week 12, catching all seven of his targets for 106 receiving yards and a TD. Which makes sense, considering the way the attack this Vikings defence is through the air. Minnesota allow the most receptions (14.9) and most receiving yards (192.4) per game to WRs. With the Vikings running the sixth-most zone coverage, Moore does has the highest PFF grade against zone; however, it isn't impressive when compared to the rest of the league. He's caught 46 of 64 targets for 413 receiving yards and a team-low 9.0 yards per reception and 7.0 aDoT. Moore lines up on the left 50% of his snaps and will likely draw the Shaquill Griffin matchup. Griffin hadn't been getting starter snaps until the previous two weeks, where he allowed seven receptions on nine targets for 130 receiving yards and 18.6 yards per reception. To outside WRs, the Vikings are allowing the most receiving yards (128.2), 12th-highest aDoT (11.7) and catch rate (64.2%). Given Moore's the leader in the clubhouse in terms of against zone coverage and that he's 28 of his last 38 targets, he should be able to perform with heavy volume, as he did in this matchup in Week 12.

Suggested Pick:
DJ Moore o5.5 Receptions (-105)

WR Keenan Allen
After a quiet start, Allen has really picked it up as of late and has become a reliable option for his rookie QB. Through the past three weeks, Allen has earned 29 targets, catching 17 balls for 189 receiving yards and three TDs. In the Week 12 matchup is where it all started for Allen, as he had a season-high nine receptions on 16 targets for 86 receiving yards and one TD. Allen lines up in the slot 52% of the time and will likely draw the Byron Murphy matchup. Murphy has been targeted often over the past three weeks, logging 17 targets but for 11 receptions. What he's great at is minimizing the yardage, as he has allowed over 20 yards in one game, never amassing 50 and has only allowed 23 yards after the catch. This isn't great for Allen, considering 63 of his 189 receiving yards have come after the catch. Given Allen's slot deployment, the Vikings allow the fifth most receiving yards (89.5), the 12th-highest aDoT (8.8) but the 10th-lowest catch rate (67.7%). It's scary to take an under, but given Allen doesn't have a high catch rate against zone (58.1%) and his CB matchup limits receptions, leads us to look at his under. Yes, he had his best game of the year in this matchup, but the production projects to stay to the outside instead of the slot. Allen has failed to register 5+ receptions in seven of his 12 games this season.

Suggested Pick:
Keenan Allen u4.5 Receptions (-105)

WR Rome Odunze
Rome has been getting more and more involved in the offence as the weeks have gone on, as he has played 80% or more of the snaps in three of the past four weeks. This has subsequently led to more targets, totalling 17 receptions on 31 targets over that span. However, he hasn't had much success converting that into big yardage, as he has exceeded 42 yards just once over that span. Odunze is decent against zone, catching 29 of 48 targets for 391 receiving yards with an average of 13.5 yards per reception. Odunze leads this Bears WR room with a 14.4 aDoT against the coverage. The rookie lines up on the right 48% of the time, and will likely draw the Fabian Moreau matchup. Moreau hasn't been a full time player for this Vikings defence, as this projects to be his first start of the season. In the two games he's played to this point, he's allowed just three receptions on six targets, but for 40 receiving yards, an average of 13.3 yards per reception. However, to have a larger sample size, Moreau allowed 13.3 yards per reception last season, which is up from his average in the previous two seasons, meaning he was more susceptible to deep ball. And, with Odunze by-far leading the team in aDoT against zone coverage, the rookies should connect deep against a favourable matchup where the Vikings allow the 12th-highest aDoT to outside WRs. Odunze has recorded a 20+ yard reception in three of his previous eight games.

Suggested Pick:
Rome Odunze o19.5 Longest Reception (-115)

TE Cole Kmet
With the Bears bringing in both Allen and Odunze this offseason, it kind of led to Kmet being fizzled out of the offence. Last season, he had 719 receiving yards and 88 targets. This season, he is on pace to have 586 receiving yards and just 65 targets. However, like most of the Bears receiving options, Kmet had his best game against the Vikings, where he recorded seven receptions on 10 targets for 64 receiving yards. However, this Vikings defence is fairly good against the TEs, ranking 16th in receiving yards (51.2) but allow a lot of volume, averaging the 12th-most targets (7.5) and 13th-most receptions (5.5). Kmet actually lines up more in the slot than he does inline. But projecting the Bears continue to play 11-personnel, Kmet still lines up inline 35% of the time. Against inline receivers, the Vikings allow the sixth-highest catch rate (80.9%), but the 19th-highest receiving yards (25.8) to the position. Kmet has recorded 3+ receptions in eight of his previous 12 games this season.

Suggested Pick:
Cole Kmet o2.5 Receptions (-170)

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold has truly revitalized his career in Minnesota and has given this Vikings organization a very difficult decision coming up in the offseason. He stole the show last week in what was Kirk Cousins' revenge game, connecting on 78.6% of his passes (22 of 28) for a season-high in passing yards (347) and passing TDs (5). Coming into the season, who would have thought Darnold would be sixth in passing yards (3,299) and third in passing TDs (28) heading into Week 16? Nobody. Darnold's game against the Bears in Week 12 was the only other game outside of last week that he threw for 300+ passing yards, finishing with 330, two passing TDs and zero interceptions. This was impressive as the Bears actually have a fairly good defence. They allow the fifth-fewest completions (18.8), the sixth-fewest pass attempts (29.5), but the 15th-fewest passing yards (232.9). Chicago is a heavy zone coverage team, as they run the seventh-most zone coverage (74.7%). Darnold is great at garnering yards against the coverage, as he ranks 10th in passing yards per game (177) and sixth in yards per attempt (8.43) and tied for seventh in TDs (7). The Bears do allow opposing QBs to succeed against zone as they allow the 10th-most passing yards per game (180.6) and the sixth-most yards per attempt (8.07). Darnold had success carving up this Bears passing defence earlier this season, and after a Detroit Lions loss this week, could tie them for the division lead with a win in this matchup. Darnold has thrown 235+ passing yards in eight straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Sam Darnold 250+ Passing Yards (-120)

RB Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones has had an up and down over his past five games. He has alternated games with 70+ rushing yards with games with sub-40 rushing yards. If we're going off trends, this projects to be a down week. However, once of those 70+ rush yard games came against this Bears rush defence, where he set a season-high 22 carries for 106 rushing yards and a TD. Through the air, he added three receptions for 23 receiving yards on four targets. Chicago really struggles on the ground, as they allow the eighth-most rush attempts and third-most rushing yards, averaging one TD per game to RBs. The Bears run man/gap 47% of the time, where they allow 4.92 yards per carry. Jones averages 4.48 yards per carry against man/gap. Through the air, Chicago is allowing just 4.2 receptions and 32.9 receiving yards, which ranks around league average. Jones has better splits on the road, averaging 80 rushing yards per game to just 60 at home. But in this positive matchup, in a game where the Vikings are expected to be leading, Jones should see plenty of work to produce on the ground. The Bears have allowed opposing starting RBs to go over their rushing line in seven straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Aaron Jones o63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Justin Jefferson
Despite what we all thought heading into the season, it's hard to argue that Jefferson isn't the best WR in the NFL. Sure, Chase is having a godly year, but Jefferson is elevating the play of Darnold, who was literally seeing ghosts at one point. Jettas ranks seventh in targets (106), ninth in receptions (75) and second in receiving yards (1,170). Not many teams have been able to slow down the former LSU WR. That is of course besides the Bears, who held Jefferson to just two receptions for 27 receiving yards on five targets. Which, might make sense had the game been a blowout, but this game went to overtime, and Jefferson was just a complete non-factor. Now, it's going to be hard to completely shut him out twice in the same season. However, the Bears are pretty good against opposing WRs, as they allow the single fewest receptions (9.6) but the 11th-fewest receiving yards (137.3). With such a big discrepancy between receptions allowed and receiving yards allowed, means the Bears should be allowing a high yards per reception. And, looking into the stats, that holds true, as the Bears allow the second-highest yards per reception (12.4). Jefferson lines up all over the outside, with the left being the highest 40%, indicating he will likely draw the Tyrique Stevenson matchup. Stevenson has honestly been fantastic over the past six weeks, since that hail-mary fiasco. He has allowed 12 receptions on 19 targets, but for only 123 receiving yards –– holding opposing WRs to under 25 receiving yards in five of those six weeks. Look, I'm not here to tell you to Jefferson might have another tough game, he has the ability to burn the hardest of matchups. But I am a little concerned, considering he has just 65 receiving yards in his last two games against the Bears.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

WR Jordan Addison
Now, this is the guy we're going to want to target in this matchup. And, mainly because he was the one between him and Jefferson who popped off in Week 12 against the Bears. Addison caught eight of nine targets for 162 receiving yards and a TD. Against zone coverage, Addison has caught 28 of 36 targets for 519 receiving yards and a whopping 18.5 yards per reception with a 16.4 aDoT. Addison lines up pretty evenly between the slot (35%) and the right side (36%); however, once Hockenson returned, Addison has seen his slot percentage dip to 29.7% and his outside percentage raise to 69.7% (nice). Playing primarily on the outside, Addison will likely draw the Jaylon Johnson matchup. Johnson hasn't been targeted much lately, having allowed just seven receptions on 12 targets over the past four weeks, but has allowed 140 receiving yards for an insane 20 yards per reception. This includes three of those games where he allowed a 20+ yard reception. Addison should be the one to exploit this matchup, as he did just a few weeks back. Addison has recorded a 25+ reception in four straight games, averaging 47.8 longest reception per game.

Suggested Pick:
Jordan Addison o22.5 Longest Reception (-120)

TE TJ Hockenson
Hockenson is still trying to find his footing in this offence, with a new QB under centre. Since his return, he's had two 70+ yard receiving games, but three games where he finished with under 30 receiving yards. One thing that has been good for Hockenson is his catch rate, having handled 27 of 33 targets sent his way. The Bears allow the allow the 18th-most receptions (4.9) but the sixth-most receiving yards (62.6) per game to TEs. In Week 12 when Hockenson faced off against the Bears, Hockenson nabbed seven of his nine targets for 114 receiving yards. In that game, he lined up inline 72.2% of the time. The Bears allow the most receiving yards per game (44.2), yards per route run (2.57), yards per target (11.25) and yards per reception (14.35) to inline receivers. We might see another great game for Hockenson in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
TJ Hockenson 40+ Receiving Yards (-130)

I think the Bears were lucky to have stayed in that last game in Week 12 that went to overtime. They were at home, but now they aren't as lucky having to travel to Minnesota with them having an opportunity to tie the Detroit Lions for the division lead. Vikings should have no problems controlling the Bears in this matchup. However, they should be able to put some points on the board.

Best Bet - Vikings -6.5 -125
Lean - Over 43.3 -110
Vikings 34 - Bears 17

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Aaron Jones TD (-130)
The Bears allow one TD to RBs on the ground per game. Since going over a month since he found the end zone, Jones has now scored in three straight games, which started when he faced the Bears three weeks ago. Historically against the Bears, Jones has scored in five of his last seven games, totalling eight TDs.

Rome Odunze TD (+333)
Both Odunze and Moore lead the Bears in red zone targets over the past month with six. Now, with Johnson out of the lineup and not stealing carries in the red zone –– and how the team doesn't trust Swift in that role –– we should see Odunze get at least one target. Here's to hoping he can take advantage of his matchup and come through for us.

First Touchdown Picks

Jordan Addison First TD (+850)
The Vikings have scored the first TD in eight of 13 games this season: Two from Jones, Jefferson and Addison, one from Josh Oliver and one from Cam Akers. Addison seems to always catch a deep ball that has the threat to score, why can't he get that as the first TD?

DJ Moore First TD (+1200)
The Bears have scored the first TD in four of 13 games this season: Two from Roschon, one from Swift and one from Kmet. It just seems like the WRs crack for one, doesn't it? Since we took Odunze anytime, lets take the other leader in red zone targets in DJ Moore.

Parlay 1: +175 odds on bet365

Minnesota Vikings ML

Aaron Jones 50+ Rushing Yards

Jordan Addison 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: +140 odds on bet365

Caleb Williams 30+ Pass Attempts

DJ Moore 5+ Receptions

Rome Odunze 30+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: +1500 odds on bet365

Jordan Addison TD

DJ Moore 7+ Receptions

TJ Hockenson 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins heard the noise last week in his return to Minnesota, with many Falcons fans clamoring to opt to play rookie QB Michael Penix. He heads into a Monday Night Game against the Falcons with the team’s playoff hopes dwindling. He also has not thrown a TD pass in 4 games, but things could improve tonight against a Raiders team that ranks 27th in pressure rate in the NFL, generating a pressure on only 29.9% of their snaps. Cousins has been much better with a clean pocket, completing 71.6% of his passes as well as having an 8.0 YPA. The Raiders also have frequently lined up in man coverage, on 32.2% of their snaps overall, which is the 8th highest rate in the NFL. Cousins has been excellent against man coverage this season, bringing the 5th highest YPA against man in the NFL at 8.38. This is not a great Raiders pass defense at all, with teams averaging 217.2 yards per game against them, which is 18th in the NFL. With the Falcons’ playoff hopes on the line, and with Cousins getting a friendly matchup, I am banking on Cousins putting the primetime Cousins narratives to bed in this one.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 239.5 Pass Yards (-110)

RB Bijan Robinson
Robinson had 101 yards and a TD last week in what was a phenomenal game, but what makes it even more impressive was the caliber of defense this was done against in Minnesota. Robinson has an extremely high success rate this year, at 60.5% which ranks 5th in the NFL overall. Against the Raiders, the outlook should be much easier than in the previous game, as this is a defense that is allowing 4.48 YPC, which ranks 19th in the NFL. Although this matchup is also good for Tyler Allgeier due to his success running against man looks, Bijan has been seeing an average of 23 rushes + receptions over the past 8 weeks, and has been the lone cornerstone of the Falcons’ offense even in this dry spell they currently find themselves in. While I look for Cousins to strike early, I also look for Robinson to strike last through his volume.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 17.5 Rush Attempts (-125)

WR Drake London
Drake London has cooled off in the second half of the season, managing just one performance over his past six games where he recorded a 100-yard outing with no touchdowns since Week 9. However, this matchup offers a strong opportunity for him to bounce back. London thrives against man coverage, earning targets on 34.4% of his routes compared to 24.4% against zone. Overall on the season, his numbers are still impressive despite a recent slump with a 2.21 YPRR. His increased volume in the slot is also promising, as the Raiders struggle against slot receivers, allowing 8.4 yards per target (18th) with a 9.2% touchdown rate (29th). Despite his scoring drought, London leads all Falcons receivers with 44.4% of the team’s red zone targets and 57.1% of end-zone targets, making him a strong candidate to break his slump in this game, especially considering the volume has remained constant with 10, 13 and 16 target games in 3 out of his last 4 games played.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 67.5 Receiving Yards

WR Darnell Mooney
Darnell Mooney is coming off a standout performance, clearing 100 yards in the first half last week against the Vikings, as he continues to exceed expectations this season. Mooney has already set a career-high in touchdowns and receptions and is just 183 yards away from surpassing his best single-season yardage total. His 21.3% target share and his 12.8-yard average aDOT makes him particularly appealing in this matchup. The Raiders defense has struggled to generate much pressure, even when blitzing (32.4% pressure rate, 2nd lowest in the league), giving Kirk Cousins more time in the pocket to find Mooney downfield. If Cousins can settle in and process defensive schemes more effectively, Mooney's ability to separate could lead to big plays.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 21.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110)

TE Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts has struggled all season against two-high coverages, and this week’s matchup doesn’t look much better. The Raiders have used two-high on 52.9% of their defensive snaps since Week 7, the seventh-highest rate in the league, and Pitts has been inefficient against this look, posting just a 14% target share, 0.92 yards per route run, and a 12.7% first-read share. While Las Vegas has really struggled as of late at the hands of opposing tight ends over the past five weeks, that slight advantage may not be enough to salvage Pitts’ production. Overall, the clash between Pitts’ struggles and the struggles of the Raiders defense make this spot the ideal one to simply pass on.

Suggested Play
Pass

QB Desmond Ridder
The QB position has been a question mark for the Raiders all week, but it looks as if Aidan McConnell will finally be ruled out of this matchup and Desmond Ridder will be getting the start. Ridder came in last week for the injured McConnell and played quite well in limited action vs the Bucs, throwing for 101 yards with 12 completions on 18 attempts. We have an extremely limited data set to work with on Ridder as a QB in this Raiders’ offense, but from a skillset position we know that he is much more mobile than O’Connell and could change the dimensions of this Raiders offense overall. Look for the Raiders to have a conservative, run-first game plan tonight and draw up routes in the short and intermediate game against a zone-heavy Falcons team that is in zone on 71.4% of defensive snaps, which is the 10th most in the NFL, for them to have the best chance at success. However from a betting standpoint, there is little data to make a confident play on Ridder in this matchup.

Suggested Play
Pass

RB Sincere McCormick
McCormick split carries with Ameer Abdullah 2 weeks ago against the Chiefs, and dominated the rush share last week, going over with 15 carries. In both of these games the Raiders were playing from down 2 scores. And while that is possible to happen again tonight we can be looking for the Raiders to run the ball a lot regardless. McCormick was named as the Raiders clear starter this week, and now the Raiders are down to their 3rd string QB with Desmond Ridder getting the start against his former team. With no real option at QB, I expect LV to turn to the run game. Yes, Alexander Mattison is back for the Raiders, but they would not be wise to go him often, as McCormick has a success rate of 56.3% to just 27.8% for Mattison on the year.  He has had a run of 10 or more yards on 18.8% of his runs (5.2% rate for Mattison). The Falcons are not horrible against the run, but not great either and they certainly can be beat with a downhill rush attack. They are averaging 27.5 total rush attempts per game, which ranks 18th in the NFL. I also expect a much closer game than last week, and they probably won’t need to abandon the run in this one. 

Suggested Play
‘O’ 12.5 Rush Attempts (-140)

WR Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers caught 7 of 10 targets for 67 yards last week against the Bucs, continuing a strong stretch of consistent involvement in the offense, and has run a route on 88.2% of the team’s dropbacks, which is by far the highest on the Raiders. He’s seen double-digit targets in four of his past five games and has been a reliable performer since Week 5. Although Meyers has only scored one touchdown since Week 3, his role as a high-volume target for whoever the QB for the Raiders is remains secure, accounting for 28.9% of the team’s targets in games since Week 4. This week’s matchup is favorable, as the Falcons have struggled to contain lead receivers of their opponents, allowing significant production to opposing top wideouts. Despite the obvious concerns about quarterback play with the team now down to their 3rd option at the position, Meyers remains a steady and dependable option.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+210)

TE Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers had a relatively quiet game on Sunday, catching 3 of 5 targets for 49 yards, while Michael Mayer saw increased volume with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 68 yards. The Raiders utilized two-tight-end formations often in that game, with Mayer running routes on 70.7% of dropbacks, a significant jump from his previous season high of 48.8%. Despite this shift, Bowers maintained a strong presence on the field, participating in 87.8% of the dropbacks, signaling that his usage remains steady even if the targets didn’t favor him last week. Bowers continues to be a key offensive player for the Raiders, ranking 2nd in the NFL in receptions among tight ends, with 87. Against an Atlanta defense that plays man coverage on just 19.1% of snaps (29th in the league), Bowers is lined up nicely for a strong outing. He excels against zone coverage, earning targets on 28.6% of his routes, and Atlanta has been struggling in defending tight ends, allowing 7.5 yards per target. This matchup provides a solid opportunity for Bowers to make a greater impact than last week, but I can’t be too sure given I expect a lot of Mayer on the field as well.

Suggested Play
Pass

The Falcons have had their share of struggles over the last few weeks, but there is just nothing at all on this Raiders team that is providing anything too scary to any team at the moment. The Falcons offense did look improved last week from a yards and efficiency standpoint, but key mistakes doomed them against a much better Vikings defense. Look for the Falcons to clean up some of those crucial errors tonight in an absolute must win situation for the team.

Best Bet: Falcons -6.5
Lean: ‘U’ 44.5
Falcons 27 Raiders 14