QB Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs make it to their 3rd straight Super Bowl as they try to make history as the first ever NFL team to Three-Peat! We all know the Chiefs just play at a different type of level when the lights are bright and that is exactly what Mahomes did in the AFC Championship game throwing for 9.4 yards per attempt which was his highest since his season opener. Now another thing he loves using is his legs which adds another thing the Eagles have to attempt to take away. The Eagles hired defensive coordinator Vic Fangio in the offseason and that is something that could come back and bite them in the ass as Mahomes has historically dominated him going 8-0 over his time in Denver and last year’s games in Miami. Now  8-0 is something to pay attention to but Fangio led defenses have made Mahomes work as it’s not been a cake walk. He has thrown for just 10 TD’s in these games with 0 games having 3+ passing TD’s. In these games he has averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt and that was with a Dolphins defense that allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempts which ranked #21/32. Now obviously going back 2/3 years of head to head historical matchup doesn’t give us a big signal for Sunday’s game but there are several similarities with how Fangio has approached calling his defenses and how that could give the Chiefs and Mahomes a big edge in big moments. The Eagles let the line generate pressure and don’t send extra guys just blitzing 15.8% of dropbacks which is the 2nd LOWEST rate in the league. 

Here is what the Eagles have ran on the season 

Zone (68.4%) #17/32

Man (25.8%) #17/32 

Now in the 3 postseason games they have ran man 26.8% and Zone 69% of the time. Now the Eagles run some unique coverages running Cover 4 19.5% which is the 3rd highest rate and Cover 6 17.4% of the time which happens to be the HIGHEST rate in the league. In the postseason they have increased the Cover 4 usage to 26.1% and slightly decreased the Cover 6 usage to 16.2%. The goal for this defense is they love to force shorter passes and make tackles on those short passes and it’s worked out! They have allowed just 4.85 yards after the catch per receptions which is the 2nd LOWEST. Now the only concern for Mahomes is he has STRUGGLED against Cover 4 & 6 which is what the Eagles run at the highest rate combined. Mahomes has 139 Dropbacks against those 2 coverages this season and 20 other QB’s have had 100+ drops backs against those coverages. Out of these QB’s here is where he lines up 

YPA (7.09) #17/21 

aDOT (6.3) #19/21 (VERY LOW) 

Now Mahomes throws 30.5% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage which is the 2nd HIGHEST but specifically against Cover 4 & 6 that climbs to 41.0% which is a league HIGH! Mahomes is not a deep ball thrower as he loves to throw those short passes which is where the Eagles want you to throw. Mahomes on balls thrown behind or at the line of scrimmage has averaged 5.7 YPC and when specifically going up against Cover 4 & 6 that dips to 4.9 YPC. Now we are talking about Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce & Andy Reid. They will have something up their sleeve for sure! Over the last 2 Super Bowl wins they were both against top 5 passing defenses. In these games combined he completed 55/73 passes (75.3%) for with 5 TD’s and 1 INT. Another huge factor is Patrick Mahomes has been using his legs more than ever as of late and he tends to take matters into his own hands more frequently in the Super Bowl as well having 6 & 9 attempts his L2 appearances racking up 44 & 66 rushing yards. 

Suggested Picks 
Longest Rush ‘O’ 11.5 -110
Long Rush 
20+ Long Rush +275
‘O’ 28.5 Rush Yds -110
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions -128


RB Kareem Hunt/Isiah Pacheco 
Shockingly the Kansas City Chiefs have stuck with Kareem Hunt in the Playoffs having 27 attempts compared to 12 for Pacheco. Now this matchup specifically is going to be a tough task for these 2 guys as the Eagles rank #6 in YPC allowed (4.1). Now with the Chiefs historical history with getting behind early in the Superbowl is a major concern for these 2 RB’s for opportunities throughout this game. Now with that being said the Chiefs use their RB’s in the passing game especially RB3 Samaje Perine. Only issue is the Eagles rank #15/32 in receptions allowed and #3/32 in YPRR (1.18). Now as I said in the Mahomes writeup, The Eagles will be throwing Cover 4 & 6 out a ton in this game in my opinion and when in their coverages they have allowed 24 receptions to backfield receivers but they have allowed an insane 2.92 YPR! That is concerning for the backfield receivers. I’m not going to go much in depth with these guys because they are going to have issues getting anything going against this solid Eagles defense 

Suggested Picks 
Kareem Hunt ‘U’ 45.5 Rush Yds -115

Xavier Worthy 
With comes into this game having 5+ reception in 7 straight games. The Chiefs last season used 3+ WR sets in 62% of their offensive snaps and this season that number drops to 49%. Now with the addition of Hollywood Brown and D-Hop most thought that was chance but in the 2 postseason games they are running 3 WR’s just 53% of snaps. Now as I said in the Mahomes write up I expect the Eagles to run a ton of zone. Here is what the Eagles have ran this season 

Cover 6 (HIGHEST RATE) 

Cover 4 (3rd HIGHEST RATE)

Cover 3 (9th HIGHEST RATE) 

Cover 2 (LOWEST RATE)

Now with that being said against Cover 3,4,6 Worthy over the last 5 games leads to team in receptions with 15 on 60 routes ran and gets an aDOT of 5.1. Out of these 60 routes he has ran 55% out of the wideout and 43.3% out of the slot and then 1 route of the backfield. When running out of the wideout he gets a 25.8% Target rate having 7 receptions for an aDOT of 8.9. Now when running out of the Slot he gets a 33.3% Target rate having 7 receptions for an aDOT of 2.0. One thing the Eagles make an emphasis on is preventing big plays. The Eagles have allowed 119 receptions to Slot receivers which is the 13th HIGHEST allowing a 7.4 aDOT (4th LOWEST) & 1.53 YPRR (2nd LOWEST). Now it’s going to be hard to beat this Eagles team out of the wideout as they rank #3/32 in receptions allowed #2/32 in YPRR allowed (1.63) & 3.46 YAC per reception. Now with the Eagles running specifically Cover 3 Cover 4 & Cover 6 they have allowed the 5th MOST receptions to Slot receivers which is where Worthy will have his chances. Now what I love about Worthy is he is a guy you pass to and let him try and go do something with his feet. Now we all know Reid has tricks up his sleeves when it comes to the playoffs and one of those will be getting Worthy involved in the running game like we have saw! 

Suggested Picks 
‘O’ 1.5 Rush Att +105

WR Marquise Hollywood Brown 
Brown has not been very productive in his 2 Playoff games with the Chiefs this year having 2 & 5 targets catching just 3/7 yards for 0 & 35 yards. Now this matchup specifaly is brutal for Brown to change his recent play around! Out of Brown’s 7 targets 3 of them have for 20+ air yards and if you have read any of the other players writeups you would understand why that is bad news. Not only do the Eagles limit deep balls but when they are thrown they completed just 19/75 attempts 25.3% which is the 2nd LOWEST rate in the league. With the Chiefs having many weapons such as Worthy,Kelce,D-Hop,Smith Schuster,Watson  find it hard to believe him having a ton of success in this game. I’m going to keep this one short because there is not much more to be talked about 

Suggested Pick
Pass

Deandre Hopkins 
The Chiefs have mixed Worthy,Brown,Juju & Watson all around this season and the reduction of playing time for Hopkins has been very weird since there are no indications or reports of him being injured. Browns return has impacted Hopkins the most and actually last game we saw Juju have the highest route participation rate in a game since week 5 (61.8%). This is another spot where there is just so much uncertainty of how much we will even see Hopkins on the field. One thing that is usually good though is he is in the field in the Redzone leaving this a TD or a stay a stay away spot 

Suggest Pick 
1+ TD +475

TE Travis Kelce 
The guy who has always showed up n the bright lights and 2 years ago in the Super Bowl when he faces this Eagles team he saw 6 targets for 6 receptions and 81 yards! Now with that being said Kelce only had 4 targets and 2 receptions in the AFC Championship game for 19 yards which snapped at playoff streak of 14 straight of 70+ yards. That was against the Bills though that was making an emphasis of making other guys step up. I truly do believe the Bills mindset coming into that game was if we lose this game it will not be because of Travis Kelce. Now in Kelce’s 4 Super Bowl appearances with Mahomes he has put up 6-43- 1 TD/ 10-133- 0 TD/ 6-81-1 TD/ 9-93-0 TD. One area the Eagles have allowed production is the the TE position especially after being without Nakobe Dean the last 2 games. In the divisional round they allowed 9/26 completions to be to the TE for 63/324 yards 19.4% and in the NFC Championship they allowed 14/29 completions to be the the TE’s for 138/255 yards 54.1%. Now a lot of that is because of the volume because they have only allowed 6.5 yards per target and 3.3 yards allowed after the catch. In these games the TE’s have received 33.3% of the team’s targets! Now with how damn good the Eagles have been against Wide Receivers I would not be shocks to see Kelce getting the ball thrown his way a ton I this one. Here is what the Eagles have ran this season 

Cover 6 (HIGHEST RATE) 

Cover 4 (3rd HIGHEST RATE)

Cover 3 (9th HIGHEST RATE) 

Cover 2 (LOWEST RATE)

Now against Cover 6 Kelce only gets a 8.1% Target Rate and that goes down to 5.3% the last 9 games but runs 71.4% of the routes which is 2nd on the team behind Worthy. Now Cover 4 is an area where Kelce can exploit this Eagles D getting a 23.8% Target rate the last 9 games catching 8 of his 10 targets for 71 yards 8.8 YPC! Kelce is only averaging 3.75 YAC on these 8 receptions which is concerning due to that fact the Eagles limit open grass. If you catch it be ready to get hit fast! Cover 3 is something then Eagles run at a high rate as well and this is where Kelce thrives getting a 30.7% Target rate having 20 receptions in 99 routes ran. Off of these receptions though he averages 8.15 YPC with only 3.60 YAC. Kelce can exploit this team when they throw Cover 3 & 4 at them but when the Eagles run those two coverages they have allowed 1.31 YPRR (2nd LOWEST) YAC per reception (#15/32 5.44) Kelce has ran out of the Slot (45.3%) Inline (37.3%) Wideout (17.0%) when going against the Cover 3/4. The Eagles have allowed the 7th MOST reception slot receivers when in these 2 coverages 

Suggeted Picks
6+ Rec -140
'O' 10.5 Rec Yds 1Q -120

QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts heads into the Super Bowl fresh off a dominant NFC Championship performance. He completed 20 of 28 passes (71.4%) for 246 yards and a touchdown while adding 16 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. His dual-threat capability continues to pose a challenge for opposing defenses. Although Hurts has faced criticism this season for relying on Philadelphia's ground game, his passing has been impressive. He ranks among the top quarterbacks with a 68.8% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, and a low turnover rate — just three in his past 14 games, during which he's totaled 33 touchdowns. The Chiefs defense, known for its aggressive schemes, plays man coverage on 30.1% of snaps (10th in the league) and blitzes nearly 30% of the time. Hurts has excelled against man coverage, posting a 130.3 passer rating and leading the league with 9.7 yards per attempt. However, when pressured, his efficiency plummets, completing just 44.4% of passes with a 69.2 passer rating. Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City’s defensive coordinator, may need to adjust his strategy to capitalize on this vulnerability without overcommitting to blitzes. Interestingly, the Eagles' offensive struggles are often self-inflicted. Nearly 20% of Hurts' pressures are attributed to his tendency to hold onto the ball too long, a habit that has led to 37 sacks. The Chiefs might benefit from emphasizing coverage rather than heavy pressure, as seen in their matchups against mobile quarterbacks like Josh Allen. Hurts’ rushing ability remains a critical factor. In the previous Super Bowl against the Chiefs, he rushed for 70 yards and three touchdowns, pairing that with over 300 passing yards. When the two teams met again the following season, Hurts was limited to 150 yards passing but still managed two rushing touchdowns. Given the potential for a very close game, Hurts may be pushed into a higher-volume passing role than usual. The Eagles lean heavily on the run, especially in the second half of games, where their dropback rate is the lowest in the league. However, if they find themselves needing to play from behind, Hurts' arm and legs could be decisive in Philadelphia's quest for victory.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 27.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

RB Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley heads into the Super Bowl as one of the most explosive offensive threats in the league, fresh off a dominant performance in the NFC Championship where he turned 16 touches into 122 yards and three touchdowns, including a 60-yard score on his first touch. That marked his seventh touchdown run of 50 or more yards this season—more than any other player in the 2000s. Barkley also leads the league with 10 touchdowns from outside the red zone, highlighting his game-breaking ability. The Chiefs' defense will face a daunting challenge containing Barkley, who amassed 1,354 rushing yards on runs of 10 or more yards this season, the highest total since Adrian Peterson in 2012. However, Kansas City's run defense has been solid, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry (2nd) with a low 6.9% explosive run rate (3rd). Despite this, they’ve shown recent vulnerability, giving up over 100 yards to opposing backfields in each of their last three games. Historically, Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses have tightened up in the postseason, even when facing elite rushing teams. Last year, the Chiefs limited San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey to 90 rushing yards on 25 carries (3.6 YPC) in the Super Bowl. No running back has ever surpassed 90 yards against a Spagnuolo-coached defense in 18 postseason games. Still, Barkley’s versatility and big-play potential set him apart from other backs. While Barkley hasn’t been heavily featured as a pass catcher this season, Kansas City's struggles against backs in the passing game could make that a wrinkle the Eagles explore. In the AFC Championship, Buffalo’s James Cook exploited the Chiefs' defense for 134 yards and two touchdowns. Kansas City's tendency to blitz aggressively could also leave them vulnerable if Barkley breaks through the second level. The Eagles often run Barkley out of three-receiver sets, where he leads the NFL with 6.9 yards per carry. Kansas City has been less effective defending these formations, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and a 9.8% explosive run rate. The key to this matchup may hinge on whether the Chiefs can play coverage without stacking the box, as lighter boxes create more opportunities for Barkley to gain consistent yardage. Given Barkley’s track record of explosive plays and Kansas City’s recent defensive trends, the Chiefs will need a disciplined and strategic approach to prevent him from taking over the game. Even if they manage to limit his rushing yards, his potential to find the end zone remains a constant threat.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 1.5 TDs (+265)

WR AJ Brown
A.J. Brown enters the Super Bowl after a strong showing in the NFC Championship, hauling in six catches on eight targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. This performance continued a season-long trend where Brown has commanded a significant portion of the Eagles' passing game. He has drawn 33.3% of team targets in ten games, a testament to his dominance even alongside other top talents like DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Brown's efficiency has been outstanding, ranking third among wide receivers with 2.73 yards per route run. Despite limited second-half passing opportunities due to the Eagles' tendency to cruise in games, Brown's explosive impact remains undeniable. He's a nightmare for defenses in man coverage, being targeted on 38.2% of his routes and averaging a staggering 4.04 yards per route run. Six of his eight touchdowns this season have come against man coverage, including a score in the NFC Championship. The Chiefs' defense faces a critical decision on how to handle Brown. They have been effective at limiting top receiving threats, allowing just 7.2 yards per target to WR1s (2nd in the league) and a 57.6% catch rate to outside receivers (4th). With Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson together, Kansas City has held opponents to 6.2 yards per target and a low 4.7% touchdown rate on outside throws. However, Brown is a different beast. He was outstanding in last year's Super Bowl (6-96-1) but was held to just one catch for eight yards in a regular-season meeting with the Chiefs. In that game, Kansas City devoted more coverage t Brown while shadowing Smith with L'Jarius Sneed. The defensive approach may shift this year, with Smith seeing more slot work (45.6% of his snaps) and creating different coverage dynamics. If the Chiefs opt to play more coverage, that could limit Brown's explosive plays but potentially open opportunities for others, including Smith and Goedert. However, Brown remains the focal point of Philadelphia's passing attack, particularly against man coverage, where he has thrived all season. With Brown's ability to create big plays and command targets, the Chiefs will need to decide whether to challenge him with aggressive man coverage or play more conservatively and risk consistent gains underneath. Either way, Brown's presence will shape Kansas City's defensive game plan, making him a key player to watch in this high-stakes matchup. Brown can make his biggest difference as a deep threat, but that is a tough ask against this KC defense.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 24.5 Longest Reception (-115)

WR Devonta Smith
DeVonta Smith has quietly been a reliable target for the Eagles throughout the postseason, with four receptions in each of their three playoff games, totaling 121 yards. Although he ranks third in target share behind A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert when all are on the field (21.4% of targets), Smith's knack for consistency and ability to exploit matchups make him a crucial piece of Philadelphia's passing attack. History suggests Smith could shine against the Chiefs. In their two most recent meetings, he out-targeted Brown in both games, posting 7-100-0 on nine targets and 6-99-0 on eight targets. Notably, Goedert did not play last season, but with Kellen Moore now calling plays, Smith has transitioned to playing more snaps from the slot, accounting for 45.6% of his snaps this season compared to just over 22% in previous years. When the Eagles deploy three or more wideouts, Smith's slot rate jumps to 58.5%. This shift could be key against a Kansas City defense that has allowed just one 100-yard game to a receiver all season but has been more vulnerable to slot receivers. An impressive 52.1% of receptions by opposing wideouts against the Chiefs have come from the slot, the highest rate in the league. With Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson on the field, Kansas City has surrendered 8.2 yards per target and an 8.2% touchdown rate to slot receivers. If the Chiefs opt for a coverage-heavy approach to contain A.J. Brown, Smith may benefit. He has performed better against zone coverage (2.20 yards per route run) compared to man (1.74 yards per route). His ability to find soft spots in zone coverage and create separation makes him a valuable asset in games where opposing defenses prioritize stopping Brown. Smith's consistency, versatility, and history of success against Kansas City make him a potential X-factor in the Super Bowl. If the Chiefs load up coverage on Brown, Smith's slot prowess could be pivotal for the Eagles' offensive success.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions

TE Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert has been a key contributor for the Eagles throughout the postseason, showing consistent production. Over the past three playoff games, he has recorded 4-47-1, 4-56-0, and 7-85-0 stat lines. His ability to command a significant share of targets has been notable, with percentages of 33.3%, 20%, and 33.3% in these games, respectively. In each contest, Goedert has maintained over 2.0 yards per route run, demonstrating his efficiency as a receiving threat The Chiefs' defense presents another favorable matchup for Goedert. They have struggled against tight ends this season, allowing a 78.1% catch rate (30th in the league) and a league-high 8.7 yards per target to the position. While elite talents like Brock Bowers and George Kittle have been a challenge for many defenses, Kansas City has also yielded strong performances to lesser-known players, such as Isaiah Likely (9-111-1), Cade Otton (8-77-1), Mike Gesicki (7-91-0), Pat Freiermuth (7-60-0), and Dalton Schultz (4-63-0). One factor that has prevented the Chiefs from being completely vulnerable to tight ends is their ability to limit touchdowns at the position, allowing a touchdown rate of just 3.4% — the seventh-best mark in the league. However, given Goedert’s red zone presence and efficiency, he still poses a significant threat in this Super Bowl matchup.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I mean how can you fade the Chiefs?!? Well you don’t and I’m not going to in this spot. If they made it this far for a chance to 3-Peat I like our chances for them to make HISTORY‼️. The Eagles come in to this game relying on 1 weapon and it’s Saquon Barkley. Yes, it has worked but the Chiefs and Spag will have something up their sleeve. They will make Jalen Hurts beat them and I don’t like the Eagles chances if they put them in that situation. Chiefs have a variety of ways to beat you and you know Andy Reid has something up his sleeves.

Best Bet: Chiefs ML -120
Lean: ‘U’ 49.5 -145

First Touchdown

Xavier Worthy +950
This guy has had 5 1H TD’s this season! With the weapons on the outside being covered up this opens an opportunity for Worthy do something in the slot and in the run game as well. This is a great sprinkle in my opinion

Saquon Barkley +450
It just has to be done. The Chiefs have historically gotten behind in the past Super Bowls and if anybody is going to score first for the Eagles I love our chances it’s the man who has gotten them here Saquon Barkley.

Anytime Touchdown 

Travis Kelce +130
Not much analysis besides that he has the best matchup out of all the receivers today for the Chiefs and his name is Travis Kelce. He shakes up in the bright lights and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him find the end zone yet again here

Patrick Mahomes +410
He is using his legs a ton and ran 2 TD’s last game with his feet. Now I know the trends are saying do not take this as he has had 2/L12 Playoff games. The Eagles have been vulnerable to giving up rushing TD’s to the QB and that is because they have guys covered up for the most part leaving no option for the QB’s to just tuck it and take off. I think we see a couple of those instances in the Redzone today.

Jalen Hurts -115
Tush Push is inevitable! 

Parlay #1 (+243)
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD
Patrick Mahomes 'O' 27.5 Rush Yds

Parlay #2 (+461)
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD
Patrick Mahomes 'O' 27.5 Rush Yds
Travis Kelce 6+ Rec 

Parlay #3 (+2033)
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD
Patrick Mahomes 'O' 27.5 Rush Yds
Travis Kelce 6+ Rec 
Isiah Pacheco 25+ Rush Yds