QB Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels has elevated his game in the postseason, displaying exceptional poise and explosiveness. Against the Lions and Bucs, Daniels has been nearly unstoppable, throwing multiple touchdowns in each game and playing mistake-free football. His 1.5% sack rate in the playoffs is a drastic improvement from the regular season, highlighting his growth in decision-making and pocket presence. Since Week 12, Daniels has been on a tear, with a league-best 7.5% touchdown rate over that span. This surge includes a career-high five-touchdown performance in Week 16 against the Eagles, demonstrating his ability to exploit even the strongest defenses. His yards per attempt have also jumped, hitting 9.6 Y/A in his most recent game, his second-highest mark of the season. Daniels has shown a knack for delivering in crunch time. He ranks third in the NFL in fourth-quarter passer rating (113.7), completing 71.1% of his passes for 8.1 Y/A and an 8.1% touchdown rate. Over 40% of his fourth-quarter passes have resulted in first downs or touchdowns, making him one of the most clutch quarterbacks in the league. On the ground, Daniels remains a consistent threat. He has rushed at least nine times in six straight games, including playoff performances of 36 and 51 yards. His scrambling ability has been crucial, as he led the league in scramble rate during the regular season and has increased that tendency in the playoffs. Against the Eagles, his rushing has been a mixed bag—limited to 18 yards in their first meeting but exploding for 81 yards in the rematch. Daniels has been at his best in late-game scenarios against Philadelphia, completing nearly 74% of his fourth-quarter passes in their two matchups this season. Whether through the air or on the ground, Daniels presents a unique challenge for the Eagles with the NFC title on the line.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 54.5 Rush Yards (-110)

RB Brian Robinson / RB Austin Ekeler
The Eagles have been a formidable opponent against the run, allowing just 4.2 yards per carry to running backs (9th) and posting a 64.3% success rate (8th). In their two regular-season matchups, Washington's ground game struggled mightily. In Week 11, their running backs combined for 75 yards on 21 carries (3.6 YPC) and a touchdown, managing only 0.62 yards before contact per attempt. By Week 16, the performance dipped even further, with 15 carries for just 32 yards (2.1 YPC) and no yards before contact. Compounding the challenge, Washington will be without guard Sam Cosmi, potentially weakening their interior run-blocking against Philadelphia's front. Austin Ekeler adds a different dimension to the Washington backfield with his versatility as a runner and receiver. While Ekeler wasn’t available for the second matchup, he played a pivotal role in the first meeting, catching 8-of-9 targets for 89 yards in addition to his contributions on the ground. On Saturday, Ekeler was productive on limited touches, rushing six times for 47 yards and adding four receptions for 41 yards. His elusiveness and ability to thrive in space make him a valuable asset, particularly against an Eagles defense that might focus on limiting Robinson's downhill running. Ekeler's receiving skills will be crucial for Washington to create mismatches and exploit Philadelphia’s coverage in the flats or against linebackers. For Washington to succeed, they’ll need to find creative ways to leverage the complementary skill sets of Robinson and Ekeler. Robinson’s physicality could soften the Eagles' front, while Ekeler’s versatility offers an avenue to counter their strengths. However, with a tough matchup on the ground and no room for error, Washington’s backs face an uphill battle to replicate their recent success against one of the league’s most disciplined defenses.

Suggested Play
 ‘O’ 24.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

WR Terry McLaurin
The challenge for McLaurin in this matchup will be consistent involvement against a Philadelphia defense that has been particularly tough on WR1s. The Eagles allow just 7.5 yards per target (3rd). McLaurin's two previous games against Philadelphia reflected that difficulty. He posted lines of 1-10-0 (on just two targets) in Week 11 and 5-60-1 (six targets) in Week 16, with a 32-yard touchdown being the highlight of the latter. One recurring issue has been Washington’s ability—or inability—to consistently get McLaurin involved against the Eagles. His target shares in those two games (6.3% and 16.7%) were well below his season averages, as McLaurin has often been stationary in the offense, primarily lining up at left wide receiver. Over 45 routes run from LWR in the two matchups, McLaurin has been targeted just three times (6.7%), largely neutralized by the Eagles’ elite coverage on that side of the field. The Eagles have allowed only 7.0 yards per target (4th) and a 2% touchdown rate (3rd) to receivers aligned at LWR. In the second game, Washington showed some creativity by increasing McLaurin’s slot usage—he ran 13 routes from the slot (up from six in the first game) and was targeted three times. If Washington continues to move McLaurin around more effectively in this game, it could open up opportunities for him to make an impact. It’s worth noting that rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who left Sunday’s game briefly but appears ready to play this weekend, has been tough in coverage against Washington this season. Mitchell has been targeted just four times across the two matchups, allowing two receptions for 42 yards and the aforementioned 32-yard touchdown.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Dyami Brown
Dyami Brown has emerged as a key contributor during Washington’s playoff run, delivering back-to-back career performances. He posted 5 receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card Round, followed by a 6-catch, 98-yard outing against Detroit. In both games, Brown set new career highs in yardage, showcasing his ability to make an impact when given increased opportunities. A notable shift in Brown's usage occurred in the Divisional Round against Detroit, where he garnered a career-best 27.6% target share. That marked a significant jump from his 15.6% share in the previous game against Tampa Bay. Additionally, his route participation increased, as he ran routes on 75.7% of the team’s dropbacks against Detroit, up from 55% the week prior. This uptick in usage signals growing trust in Brown as a reliable target. When these teams faced off in Week 16, Brown was effective in limited opportunities, catching 4-of-5 targets for 56 yards, including a 51-yard reception that highlighted his ability to generate explosive plays. In this upcoming matchup, Washington will likely lean on Brown to complement Terry McLaurin and stretch the field against a tough Eagles defense. Brown’s speed and big-play ability can be a valuable asset, particularly if the Eagles focus their defensive attention on McLaurin and the running game. Look for Washington to keep Brown heavily involved, especially if they aim to attack Philadelphia’s secondary with deeper passes or exploit opportunities in the intermediate range. If Brown continues his postseason surge, he could be an X-factor for Washington’s offense in this critical game.

Suggested Play
Pass

TE Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz made the most of his opportunities on Saturday against Detroit, catching all five of his targets for 28 yards and a touchdown. While Ertz hasn’t been a high-volume yardage producer lately—reaching 50 yards just once in his past 11 games—he’s been a reliable red-zone weapon. With seven touchdowns over his last nine outings, Ertz has developed strong chemistry with Jayden Daniels, capitalizing on his quarterback’s hot hand in the scoring department. Against his former team, the Eagles, Ertz had mixed results during the regular season. He posted a solid 6-47-1 line in one game (adding a two-point conversion) but was limited to just one catch for 12 yards in the other. His success will likely hinge on finding the end zone, as volume and yardage have been limited in recent weeks The Eagles’ tight-end defense is worth noting. On Sunday, they allowed Rams tight ends to catch 9-of-12 targets for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns. The absence of linebacker Nakobe Dean, who has been out with an injury, may be contributing to some vulnerability. Without Dean on the field this season, the Eagles have allowed tight ends to catch 73.3% of their targets with a 6.7% touchdown rate. While the sample size is small, Ertz could exploit this trend if Washington gets him involved near the goal line. If the Eagles focus on limiting Washington’s wide receivers, Ertz might also find more room to operate underneath and in the intermediate range. For Ertz, the key will remain his ability to score. While his yardage totals may not pop, his knack for finding the end zone makes him a critical piece of Washington’s offense as they prepare for this key matchup.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+300)

QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts had an up-and-down performance on Sunday, beginning the game with a career-long 44-yard touchdown run that contributed to his 70 rushing yards. As a passer, he completed 75% of his throws (15-of-20) but managed only 128 yards (6.4 yards per attempt) without a touchdown, marking the second consecutive week of underwhelming passing production. Weather conditions and a dropped deep pass by A.J. Brown played a role, but Hurts has now thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of his last five games. One recurring issue for Hurts this season has been pressure. On Sunday, he was sacked seven times, the most by any quarterback in a single game this year, with a staggering 25.9% sack rate. Hurts has been pressured on a league-high 41.1% of his dropbacks this season, and his extended time to throw (3.07 seconds, the longest in the league) has contributed to this vulnerability. When not pressured, Hurts has excelled, completing 79.6% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt (4th in the league). However, his efficiency drops significantly under pressure, completing just 44.9% of his passes for 5.0 yards per attempt. In previous meetings, Washington exploited his struggles under pressure, holding him to just 25% completion and 3.4 yards per attempt when pressured. When unpressured, however, Hurts was highly effective, completing over 70% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt. Washington’s defense is particularly vulnerable to quick passes, allowing 7.0 yards per attempt (25th) and a league-worst 7.8% touchdown rate on throws released within 2.5 seconds. In contrast, they’ve excelled against longer-developing plays, where their coverage tightens, allowing only 7.6 yards per attempt and a 1.6% touchdown rate. However, Hurts' mobility could be a question mark after a late-game knee injury on Sunday. If his ability to run is limited, it would significantly impact the Eagles' offense, which heavily relies on designed runs, RPOs, and Hurts’ scrambling ability. Philadelphia’s rushing attack will likely remain a key factor, which could limit overall passing volume. For Hurts to elevate his performance, a shift toward a more efficient quick passing game is essential, both to protect him from pressure and to capitalize on Washington’s defensive gaps. While Hurts has shown flashes of excellence this season, particularly in the Pittsburgh game, the consistency of the Eagles’ passing game remains an area for improvement heading into this matchup.

Suggested Play
Pass

RB Saquon Barkley
The Commanders' struggles against the run extend beyond the regular season. In their two playoff games, Washington has allowed a 51.3% success rate against running back runs, giving up 5.4 yards per carry and 2.62 yards before contact per attempt. They’ve been especially vulnerable to explosive plays, surrendering a run of 10 or more yards on 20.5% of those carries. Washington’s best shot at containing Barkley lies in replicating their second-half adjustment from the last matchup. After Jalen Hurts left the game due to injury, Washington loaded the box with eight or more defenders on 59.1% of Barkley’s carries. This approach limited him to 13 rushes for 18 yards in those scenarios, compared to his explosive 109 yards and two touchdowns on just seven carries in the first quarter. However, this strategy comes with risks: selling out to stop Barkley opens the door for big gains if he breaks through to the second level. If Hurts is limited by his knee injury and less of a threat as a runner, Washington could again commit extra defenders to slow Barkley. Still, the danger of giving up another game-breaking run remains high, especially given Barkley's unparalleled ability to capitalize on defensive lapses. His combination of power, vision, and explosiveness makes him a constant threat to tilt the game in Philadelphia's favor.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 123.5 Rush Yards (-110)

WR AJ Brown
When the Eagles’ trio of Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert is healthy, Brown is clearly the primary option. Across 126 plays this season with all three available, Brown has commanded 32.6% of the targets, a massive 49.8% of the air yards, and posted 2.08 yards per route run. His ability to draw deep targets and make plays after the catch is the key to Philadelphia’s success through the air.  Volume is the determining factor for Brown’s production. In games where the Eagles throw frequently, he shines—like his 8-97-1 stat line on 15 targets against Washington in Week 16. However, he also had a more modest 5-65-0 performance in their Week 11 meeting on just 8 targets. Both games saw Brown command significant portions of the team’s opportunities, with 32% and 60% of the targets, respectively. Washington’s defensive scheme will play a big role in how Brown performs. Against the Eagles earlier this season, Washington played a zone-heavy game in Week 11 (13.3% man coverage) but shifted to 53.1% man coverage in Week 16, one of their highest rates all season. If they go back to man coverage, Brown has an edge—he’s been targeted on 38.2% of his routes against man (3.89 yards per route) compared to just 21.5% against zone (2.24 yards per route). Washington’s use of Marshon Lattimore in coverage will also be pivotal. In their Week 16 matchup, Brown caught 5 of 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown against Lattimore, who also drew two pass interference penalties while covering him. However, last week, Washington leaned heavily on zone against Detroit, limiting Lattimore’s involvement to just one target on 41 coverage snaps. Brown has shown he can thrive regardless of Washington’s defensive alignment. If the Commanders opt for man coverage, he has the skill set to exploit it. If they lean on zone, his volume and ability to attack soft spots in coverage should still make him productive.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 22.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

WR Devonta Smith
When Smith shares the field with A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert, he accounts for 22.5% of the team targets and 26.3% of the air yards while averaging 1.26 yards per route run. While he’s clearly the secondary option to Brown in terms of target share and air yards, Smith’s ability to play in the slot—on 47.2% of his snaps with all three pass-catchers healthy—positions him for opportunities on shorter, quick-hitting passes. In their two matchups against Washington this season, Smith posted lines of 4-29-0 and 6-51-0, with target shares of 24% and 32% in those games. Those numbers highlight his involvement when the Eagles pass, but the lack of explosive plays has kept his production in check. Washington’s defensive scheme will be critical in shaping Smith’s impact. He’s been targeted on 17.2% of his routes against zone coverage but only 12% against man. If Washington opts for more zone looks, as they did against Detroit last week, Smith could see increased involvement. Moreover, on quick throws (within 2.5 seconds of the snap) when Brown and Goedert are also on the field, Smith leads the team with 2.17 yards per route run and garners 28.8% of the team targets. Washington’s vulnerability against slot receivers—allowing 8.2 yards per target (18th) and a 6.6% touchdown rate (21st)—provides an additional path for Smith to make an impact. If Philadelphia looks to shorten their passing game against Washington’s pressure and leans on slot matchups, Smith’s role could expand in this matchup. The only issue here for Smith is that we can expect low pass volume out of the Eagles in general, which should limit opportunities.

Suggested Play
Pass

TE Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert continues to be a steady and efficient option in the Eagles' passing game, catching all four of his targets for 56 yards last Sunday. Since his return in Week 18, he’s delivered consistent performances with yardage totals of 55, 47, and 56 in three consecutive games. Goedert’s role in Philadelphia’s offense is clear when he’s on the field alongside A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. He accounts for 24.7% of the team targets, second only to Brown, while averaging 1.38 yards per route run. His ability to complement the team’s wide receivers while maintaining strong efficiency makes him a key part of the Eagles’ passing attack. Goedert will face a Washington defense that has struggled against tight ends this season. The Commanders have allowed a 74.5% catch rate (22nd), 7.5 yards per target (17th), and a league-high 8.8% touchdown rate (31st) to opposing tight ends. Goedert only played in one of the regular-season matchups against Washington, catching all five of his targets for 61 yards in their Week 11 meeting. This is Goedert’s third favorable matchup of the postseason, and his consistent involvement as a pass-catcher positions him for another solid outing. Against a defense that has struggled to contain tight ends, Goedert could play a pivotal role in Philadelphia’s offensive game plan.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+320)

I am going to continue to ride with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders in the NFC Championship and to advance to the Super Bowl in this spot. It will be pivotal for other WRs to step up outside of McLaurin who will likely be shadowed by Quinyon Mitchell, but with players like Zaccheus, Brown and Ertz, as well as the legs of Daniels, I think this is something that we can expect to see. I also am concerned about how increasingly one dimensional the Eagles offense is becoming, and I think they were aided tremendously by the snow a week ago. Look for the upset.

Best Bet: Washington +6.5 -125
Lean ‘O’ 47.5 +100
Commanders 27 Eagles 24

Anytime Touchdown: 

(Commanders) Zach Ertz +300
While the sample size is small, Ertz could exploit this trend if Washington gets him involved near the goal line. If the Eagles focus on limiting Washington’s wide receivers, Ertz might also find more room to operate underneath and in the intermediate range. For Ertz, the key will remain his ability to score. While his yardage totals may not pop, his knack for finding the end zone makes him a critical piece of Washington’s offense as they prepare for this key matchup.

(Eagles) Dallas Goedert +320
The Commanders have allowed a league-high 8.8% touchdown rate (31st) to opposing tight ends. Goedert only played in one of the regular-season matchups against Washington, catching all five of his targets for 61 yards in their Week 11 meeting. This is Goedert’s third favorable matchup of the postseason, and his consistent involvement as a pass-catcher positions him for another solid outing. Against a defense that has struggled to contain tight ends, Goedert could play a pivotal role in Philadelphia’s offensive game plan.

1st Touchdown 

(Eagles) Saquon Barkley +300
Barkley's anytime touchdown line doesn’t offer much value, so targeting his first touchdown odds is a better approach. He’s been the most reliable piece of the Eagles’ offense during the playoffs, and his matchup with the Commanders is as favorable as it gets. In their two regular-season meetings, Barkley found the end zone four times while averaging 6.1 yards per touch.

Parlay 1 +407

Jayden Daniels ‘O’ 54.5 Rush Yards

Saquon Barkley ‘O’ 126.5 Rush Yards

Jalen Hurts ‘U’ 24.5 Pass Attempts

Parlay 2 +1056

Saquon Barkley 1st TD

Zach Ertz ATD

QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen enters the highly anticipated matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs as the focal point of the Buffalo Bills' offense. In his last two meetings with Kansas City, Allen showcased his dual-threat abilities, combining for 448 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and 24 carries for 127 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. The Chiefs struggled to contain Allen on the ground in both games, with his rushing scores often serving as critical momentum-shifters. Kansas City’s defense, ranked 17th in passing yards allowed per game (233.5) and 22nd in both yards per attempt (7) and turnover-worthy throw rate (2.5%), has been middle-of-the-pack this season against opposing quarterbacks. This presents an opportunity for Allen to exploit their vulnerabilities. However, Allen’s postseason success hinges on protecting the football—a task he’s excelled at so far, with zero turnovers in two playoff games.

Last week against Baltimore, Allen’s passing output was modest, totaling just 127 yards on 22 attempts with no passing touchdowns. Instead, he relied on his legs, scoring two rushing touchdowns. Against a Chiefs defense that employs heavy zone coverage, Allen will likely need to lean more on his arm. This season, Allen has been far more effective against man coverage, throwing 21 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, compared to 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions against zone defenses. Kansas City’s zone-heavy scheme may challenge him to make quick, accurate reads and force throws into tighter windows. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is known for its aggressive blitz packages, particularly on third downs. In their most recent clash, Allen rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. While Spagnuolo is expected to bring creative pressure, given Allen’s proven ability to shine in high-pressure games, this matchup promises to be a thrilling battle of wits and skill. This is the type of game where Allen is going to be aggressive and use his legs a ton!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 9.5 Carries -120

RB James Cook 
James Cook has been a key contributor to Buffalo’s offensive game plan this postseason, delivering steady production in back-to-back playoff games. Against Denver, Cook carried the ball 23 times for 120 yards and a touchdown, while against Baltimore, he added 17 carries for 67 yards along with 3 receptions for 15 yards. His increased workload is notable, as his share of backfield touches has risen from just under 60% during the regular season to approximately 66% in the playoffs. This trend suggests the Bills are leaning more heavily on Cook as their primary running back in critical moments. The matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs presents both opportunities and challenges for Cook. Kansas City has allowed the 25th most rushing yards per game (101.7) and ranks 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.14). However, their defense has been excellent at limiting explosive plays, ranking 30th in explosive run rate allowed (2.9%). While Buffalo’s offensive line will need to create consistent running lanes, Cook’s ability to handle volume and contribute in the passing game gives him a versatile role in the game plan. Kansas City’s middling stuff rate (44.8%, 15th) means there will be opportunities for Cook to grind out yards, even if big plays are hard to come by. Houston’s rushing attack did allow over 100 rushing yards last week, but it remains a difficult matchup. Cook’s consistent involvement in Buffalo’s red-zone offense makes him a strong candidate to find the end zone, even in a tough matchup. While it might be difficult to trust Cook’s rushing yard overs this week given Kansas City’s ability to limit explosive plays, his role as the focal point of Buffalo’s rushing attack and his high touchdown equity make him a player to watch in this matchup. If Buffalo can sustain drives and create scoring opportunities, Cook’s postseason momentum could continue.

Suggested Picks
1+ TD +145

WR Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir has been the most reliable weapon in Buffalo’s passing attack, consistently commanding a significant workload. Over the past nine games, Shakir has posted a 20%+ target share in every contest, with 6+ targets in his final 10 regular-season games and both playoff matchups. His consistency was on display in the regular-season clash against Kansas City, where he hauled in 8 catches on 12 targets for 70 yards. Primarily operating out of the slot (~72% of the time), Shakir is well-positioned to exploit Kansas City’s glaring weaknesses in defending slot receivers.

The Chiefs have allowed the 2nd most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (100.2), the highest catch rate (80%), and the 2nd highest yards per route run (2.10). Additionally, their struggles in the red zone are evident, as they’ve allowed the 3rd most touchdowns (12) to slot receivers this season. Shakir’s role as a high-volume, chain-moving target aligns perfectly with Kansas City’s defensive vulnerabilities, making him a focal point in this matchup. Kansas City’s aggressive blitz tendencies (fourth-highest rate in the league at 31.6%) could also play into Shakir’s strengths. He has been exceptional against the blitz, recording an elite 36% target share per route run and an incredible 3.67 yards per route run when facing extra pressure. His ability to find soft spots in the defense and make plays under pressure makes him an ideal safety valve for Josh Allen in high-leverage situations. Given his consistent involvement, favorable matchup, and strong track record against the Chiefs, Shakir is poised for another productive outing. Bettors should consider his reception and yardage props, as well as his potential to find the end zone, given Kansas City’s struggles against slot receivers this season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 56.5 Receiving Yards -110

WR Mack Hollins/Curtis Samuel/Amari Cooper
All of the wideouts ran exactly 10 routes each this past week. As far as I’m concerned none of them can be trusted and the lines are really low for a reason. Last week these three combined for 5 targets and 3 catches for 21 yards. Yikes. The most surprising is Cooper, who was a major acquisition for the Bills this season and has hardly contributed on the field most of his Bills tenure. At this point, his reception line looks pretty appealing, so if you looking for an angle I’d look there.

Suggested Picks
Amari Cooper ‘O’ 1.5 Receptions -105
Mack Hollins ‘U’ 14.5 Receiving Yards -114

TE Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid steps into a dream matchup this Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, making him a strong candidate for a bounce-back performance. Despite missing the regular-season meeting due to injury, Kincaid has an opportunity to exploit Kansas City’s well-documented struggles against tight ends. The Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards per game to the position (70.1), the 2nd most receptions (6.24), and the 7th most targets (8.0). Additionally, Kincaid’s significant usage in the slot (58.2%, second highest on the team) aligns perfectly with how tight ends have found success against this defense. After posting a solid 3 catches for 47 yards in Buffalo's first-round win over Denver, Kincaid struggled against Baltimore, finishing with just 1 catch for 11 yards. However, this matchup should encourage more involvement, particularly with Buffalo likely needing to lean on the passing game to keep pace with Kansas City’s high-powered offense. Kincaid’s ability to work the middle of the field and create mismatches against Kansas City’s linebackers and safeties positions him as a key weapon for Josh Allen. Given the favorable matchup and Buffalo’s expected game plan, Kincaid offers strong potential in receiving props, particularly for receptions and yards. His slot usage could also set him up for consistent short-yardage opportunities, boosting his floor. Alongside Khalil Shakir, Kincaid should have a productive day in what could be a high-scoring affair, making him a solid option for bettors looking to capitalize on Kansas City’s TE vulnerabilities.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 32.5 Receiving Yards -110

QB Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes faces a stiff test against the Buffalo Bills' defense in what promises to be a tightly contested matchup. In his last two games against Buffalo, Mahomes has combined for 411 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, with a modest 6 carries for 19 rushing yards. While Mahomes has been effective in finding the end zone, his overall production has been somewhat limited, particularly in terms of yardage. Buffalo’s defense, ranked 11th in passing yards allowed per game (241.2) and 15th in both yards per attempt (7.11) and QB rating allowed (93.5), has been average in pass defense but excels at capitalizing on mistakes. Their 3.8% turnover-worthy throw rate ranks as the 8th highest in the league, posing a potential challenge for Mahomes, who has struggled with turnovers at times this season. In their last matchup, Mahomes threw two interceptions, though he has since cleaned up his play. Remarkably, he has gone seven consecutive games without throwing an interception, a trend Kansas City will need to continue if they hope to neutralize Buffalo’s opportunistic defense. A key storyline in this game will be how Mahomes handles Buffalo's two-high safety coverage. The Bills leaned heavily on this strategy in their regular-season meeting, contributing to Mahomes’ struggles. Against two-high looks this season, Mahomes has posted a pedestrian 83.2 passer rating, averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt, and thrown as many interceptions (6) as touchdowns (5). For Kansas City to find offensive success, Mahomes will need to adapt by taking what the defense gives him, relying on short to intermediate throws, and staying patient. In his most recent outing against Houston, Mahomes demonstrated this type of measured approach, throwing for 177 yards on 7.1 yards per attempt with one touchdown and no interceptions. While he didn’t have to shoulder the load in that game, the stakes against Buffalo will demand more. With the Bills likely to deploy similar two-high coverage schemes and a pass rush capable of disrupting his timing, Mahomes’ ability to make quick, accurate decisions and avoid forcing the ball downfield will be critical. The outcome of this game could hinge on Mahomes' ability to adjust to Buffalo’s defensive schemes and protect the football. If he can maintain his recent turnover-free streak while exploiting the soft spots in Buffalo’s coverage, he could tilt the balance in Kansas City’s favor. However, if Buffalo can replicate the success of their earlier game plan and capitalize on mistakes, it could spell trouble for Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 36.5 Pass Attempts -115
‘O’ 0.5 Interception -105

RB Isiah Pacheco
Isiah Pacheco faces an uphill battle in this matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Despite being the nominal starter, Pacheco has ceded significant touches to Kareem Hunt, including all the high-value goal-line work. Last week, Pacheco managed just 5 carries for 18 yards, while Hunt outperformed him with 8 carries for 44 yards and a touchdown. Hunt also dominated inside the 5-yard line, logging all 6 rushing attempts in that area, further diminishing Pacheco’s upside.

Since returning from injury, Pacheco’s lack of explosiveness has been evident. He’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has recorded a breakaway rush of 10 or more yards on only 3.7% of his attempts. Against a Buffalo defense that ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed per game (115.5) and 14th in yards per carry (4.5), the opportunity to make an impact is there, but Pacheco will need to rediscover his burst to capitalize. Buffalo’s defense does have vulnerabilities, particularly in preventing touchdowns and limiting explosive runs. They rank 24th in touchdown rate allowed (3%) and 17th in explosive run rate allowed (5.1%). However, their third-ranked stuff rate (48%) suggests they are adept at bottling up runs near the line of scrimmage. This could spell trouble for Pacheco, whose struggles to generate consistent positive yardage make him an easy target for a disciplined front. Unless Pacheco regains his pre-injury form, his role in the Kansas City backfield may continue to be overshadowed by Hunt. With Hunt handling the high-value touches and Pacheco struggling to break big plays, this matchup against Buffalo appears to limit his betting appeal. For Pacheco to exceed expectations, he’ll need to maximize his limited opportunities and avoid being neutralized by Buffalo’s stout run-stopping efforts.

Suggested Picks
Longest Rush ‘U’ 11.5 Yards (-110)

RB Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt has emerged as the more reliable option in the Kansas City backfield, overtaking Isiah Pacheco in both volume and effectiveness. Despite averaging a modest 3.7 yards per carry, Hunt’s 9.4% explosive run rate demonstrates his ability to create big plays, making him a critical asset in a game where the Chiefs will need to establish a productive ground attack. Hunt has earned the trust of the coaching staff, particularly late in games, and his role has continued to expand. Last week, he logged 8 carries for 44 yards and a touchdown, while also dominating the goal-line work with all 6 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. Hunt has also started to outpace Pacheco in passing situations, playing 13 passing snaps to Pacheco’s 11. This slight edge in receiving opportunities further boosts his value, especially in a matchup against a Buffalo Bills defense that has shown vulnerability against the run. The Bills rank 21st in rushing yards allowed per game (115.5) and 14th in yards per carry (4.5), but their third-ranked stuff rate (48%) suggests they can be effective at limiting shorter gains. For Hunt, his explosiveness and ability to break big runs may help Kansas City mitigate Buffalo’s strength in stopping runs near the line of scrimmage. Given the Chiefs’ reliance on Hunt in key situations, it’s likely that he’ll continue to handle the bulk of the high-value touches, including goal-line opportunities and late-game carries. While Pacheco remains part of the backfield rotation, Hunt’s explosiveness, versatility, and trust factor make him the more appealing option in this matchup against the Bills.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 8.5 Carries +105
Anytime Touchdown +180

WR Xavier Worthy
Xavier Worthy has solidified his role as Kansas City’s WR1 down the stretch, and his consistent production makes him a key player in this matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Worthy has recorded 5+ receptions in each of his last six games and has been on the field for nearly 88% of all dropbacks, the highest rate among Chiefs wide receivers. With a 25% target share—second only to Travis Kelce—Worthy is clearly a focal point of the offense. His versatility allows the Chiefs to deploy him all over the field, but last week against Houston, he was used predominantly in the slot (63.3% slot rate), which could be a game-changer against Buffalo. The Bills have struggled to defend slot receivers this season, allowing the 3rd most receiving yards per game out of the slot (90.3), the 6th highest catch rate (74.2%), and the 2nd highest first-read rate (82.5%). This aligns perfectly with Worthy’s usage and skill set, as he thrives on quick, high-percentage throws and creates mismatches with his speed and route-running ability. If Kansas City continues to feature Worthy in the slot, he is poised to exploit Buffalo’s vulnerabilities in this area. Given his prominent role in the offense and the favorable matchup, Worthy could be in for a big performance. With the Bills likely focusing on containing Travis Kelce, Worthy has a prime opportunity to capitalize on soft coverage and sustain his streak of strong outings. For bettors, his reception and yardage props, particularly out of the slot, are worth close consideration in what could be a productive game for Kansas City’s emerging star.

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‘O’ 56.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

WR DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins faces a challenging matchup against the Buffalo Bills, and his recent usage raises concerns about his potential impact. Last week, Hopkins was on the field for just 14 passing snaps, a surprisingly low figure and only one more than running back Kareem Hunt. With such limited opportunities, it’s difficult to rely on him as a focal point of Kansas City’s passing attack, especially in a game where the Bills’ defense excels against outside receivers. Buffalo has been one of the league’s best at limiting production from wideouts on the perimeter, allowing the 28th most receiving yards per game to outside receivers (88.1%). They also rank near the top in limiting big plays, allowing the 27th highest yards per reception (11.98) and the 19th highest yards after the catch per reception (4.15) to outside receivers. For a player like Hopkins, who lined up exclusively outside last week, these numbers indicate a tough path to meaningful production. Unless Hopkins sees a significant uptick in usage or Kansas City makes a concerted effort to scheme him open, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he puts up big numbers in this matchup. For bettors, it might be best to temper expectations for Hopkins and avoid overs on his yardage or reception props, given both the difficult matchup and his uncertain role in the Chiefs’ offense.

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PASS

WR Hollywood Brown
Hollywood Brown heads into this matchup against the Buffalo Bills looking to bounce back from a disappointing performance last week, where he failed to record a catch on just two targets. Despite the lack of involvement, Brown remained a fixture on the field, playing 72% of the offensive snaps. As a versatile receiver who splits time between the outside (60%) and the slot (40%), Brown's ability to stretch the field as a deep threat makes him a potential X-factor for the Chiefs’ passing attack. The Bills’ defense has been solid against outside receivers in terms of yardage, but one glaring weakness is their tendency to give up touchdowns. They’ve allowed a 7.3% touchdown rate to outside wideouts this season, which is one of the highest in the league. Brown’s speed and knack for getting behind the secondary could make him a red-zone and deep-shot option in this game, even if his target volume remains modest. While Brown’s recent lack of production makes him a risky bet for yardage props, his ability to capitalize on Buffalo’s vulnerability to outside receiver touchdowns gives him sneaky upside in the anytime touchdown market. If Kansas City looks to exploit this weakness, Brown could find himself in the end zone despite a limited overall role in the offense. Ultimately, his lines look spot on, so I’m going to avoid taking them. His touchdown at +250 looks like a fun sprinkle, however.

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Anytime Touchdown +250 (sprinkle)

TE Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is a force to be reckoned with in the postseason, and his track record speaks for itself. Over his last 14 playoff games dating back to 2021, Kelce has surpassed 70+ receiving yards in every single contest, including two prior playoff matchups against this very Bills team. He has also found the end zone 10 times in his last 10 playoff appearances, demonstrating his unparalleled connection with Patrick Mahomes in high-pressure moments. Whether on scripted plays or broken plays where Mahomes extends the action, Kelce is the ultimate safety blanket and big-play weapon. Betting against him, particularly in playoff scenarios, is a risky proposition. That said, the Bills have proven to be one of the tougher defenses against tight ends this season. In their regular-season meeting, they held Kelce to just 2 catches for 8 yards, a testament to their ability to limit TE production. Buffalo ranks 20th in yards allowed to tight ends per game (48.1), 12th in receptions allowed (5.41), and 9th in targets allowed (7.6), showing they have the personnel and scheme to make things difficult. Kelce’s recent dominance, coupled with his role as Mahomes’ primary red-zone target, means he’s still poised to be heavily involved, but his player props have ballooned following a stellar performance last week against Houston, potentially reducing their betting value. The safest play here might be focusing on Kelce as a touchdown scorer. With Mahomes’ trust in him at its peak, especially in the red zone, Kelce remains a top threat to deliver a clutch score, even if his yardage totals end up below expectations against Buffalo's stout TE defense.

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Anytime Touchdown +130

I do not give a damn if the Bills have the better team overall I will never fade Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. They are trying to make history going for the first three-peat in NFL history. Allen is 0-3 against Mahomes in the Playoffs and I get the Chiefas didnt look great last week but they pulled through and do what they always do which is WIN! Just like Brady, You never bet against Mahomes. Give me the Kansas City Chiefs to win in another thriller!

Best Bet (Chiefs -130)
Lean (Under 48.5 -110)
Bills 20, Chiefs 23

 Anytime TD

Josh Allen +100
Allen scored two touchdowns last week. He scored 2 touchdowns vs KC last season in the playoffs and one this season in their regular season matchup. He has 1+ TD in 4 of his last 5 playoff games. He scored a touchdown in 6 of his last 7 regular season games. Let’s not overthink this one!

Travis Kelce +130
The unscripted connection between Mahomes and Kelce always shows up in the playoffs. He has 11 touchdowns in his last 11 career playoff games and 70+ receiving yards in each of them. In the regular season, we saw the other TE, Noah Gray, score a pair of touchdowns against BUF, but last year in the playoff matchup, Kelce had a pair of his own. I think we see him get in the endzone at least once here.

First TD

Josh Allen +700

We’ll take him for the first TD as well. I think the Bills are going to want to come out fast and grab a lead. He had the first touchdown when they lost to KC in the playoffs last season. The most likely bet from the BUF side is Cook, but I like the value here on Allen, who could also act as the goal line back at the 1-yard line.

 Xavier Worthy +1200
In their regular season matchup, Worthy had the first Chiefs touchdown. Outside of Kelce, Worthy has really taken over the WR1 role in this offense. He had 9+ targets in the three games to finish the regular season. They like to use him with WR sweeps in the run game so we have multiple ways to cash this bet. I’m expecting this KC team to get more creative on offense as they look to be more explosive against a good Bills offense. Worthy is their most explosive player.

Parlay #1 (+331)
Chiefs ML
Under 48.5 Pts
Kelce 50+ Rec Yds

Parlay #2 (+737)
Chiefs ML
Under 48.5 Pts
Kelce 50+ Rec Yds
Mahomes 25+ Rush Yds 

Parlay #3 (+1376)
Chiefs ML
Under 48.5 Pts
Kelce 50+ Rec Yds
Mahomes 25+ Rush Yds 
Worthy 'O' 3.5 Rush Yds