Browns Team Overview

QB Bailey Zappe
Cleveland's offense has struggled to find traction with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, producing just 9 points across his first two starts. Over those outings, Thompson-Robinson has managed 327 scoreless passing yards on 81 attempts (4.0 yards per attempt) and added 13 carries for 59 rushing yards. His career numbers highlight further inefficiency, with a 0.4% touchdown rate and a 4.4% interception rate while averaging 3.8 yards per attempt on 227 career throws. Given these struggles, the Browns are shifting to Bailey Zappe as they face a daunting Ravens defense. Zappe, who started eight games during his time in New England, and has averaged 146.6 passing yards per game in his career. However, he steps into a difficult matchup against a Baltimore defense that has stifled opposing passers, allowing 223 or fewer passing yards in six of their last seven games. Even standout rookie C.J. Stroud was limited to 185 scoreless yards last week against this unit. With Cleveland entering the game as significant underdogs, the offense may continue to struggle regardless of who is under center. Zappe will need to overcome both a challenging defense and the Browns' recent offensive inefficiency to make an impact. It is tough to make a call on a prop here however given the uncertainty of how DTR and Zappe will split snaps.

Suggested Play
Pass

 

RB Jerome Ford
Jerome Ford has had some strong outings this season, including back-to-back performances in Weeks 15 and 16 where he topped 100 scrimmage yards and scored a touchdown in each game. However, he struggled in his most recent outing against the Dolphins, managing just 22 rushing yards on six carries and failing to register a target in the passing game. Adding to the uncertainty, he sustained an ankle injury that could limit his availability or effectiveness this week. Cleveland’s backfield has leaned on a committee approach in recent weeks, with D’Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong stepping up. Foreman led the way with 13 carries for 49 yards against Miami, while Strong contributed both on the ground and through the air with 33 rushing yards and 15 receiving yards. The matchup against the Ravens presents a tough challenge for Ford and the Browns' ground game. Baltimore’s defense has been one of the best in the league at stopping the run, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs (64.6) and ranking fifth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.66). While the Ravens are more vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game to the position (40.7), their stout run defense makes it difficult for opposing backs to get going on the ground.

Suggested Play:
Pass




WR Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy has been a consistent presence in the Broncos’ passing attack, showcasing his precise route-running and ability to generate separation. Though his overall touchdown production has been limited this season, Jeudy remains a reliable option for moving the chains and creating opportunities in critical moments. The Ravens' defense is hard to figure, with early struggles but much better play over the past few weeks. Baltimore's ability to generate pressure upfront has often disrupted timing for opposing quarterbacks, which could impact Jeudy’s opportunities. However, his versatility to line up both in the slot and out wide provides Cleveland with the flexibility to exploit mismatches. Jeudy’s previous encounters with top-tier defenses have shown his capability to make plays in tight coverage. If the Broncos’ offense can establish a rhythm, Jeudy’s quickness and precision could be crucial in finding gaps against a tough Baltimore secondary. Look for him to remain a key component of the Broncos' passing game as they aim to break through a formidable Ravens defense.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)



TE Jordan Akins
Jordan Akins stepped up in Week 17, delivering a solid performance with 6 catches for 49 yards on 8 targets in a losing effort against the Dolphins. His involvement in the passing game highlights his ability to provide reliable options for the Browns, especially if David Njoku remains sidelined with a knee injury. The Ravens' defense has been moderately susceptible to tight ends, allowing the 13th-most receiving yards per game (56.4) and the 11th-most receptions per game (5.4) to the position. However, Baltimore has tightened up recently, limiting Dalton Schultz to just 21 yards and Pat Freiermuth to 16 yards in consecutive matchups. Akins' production largely hinges on his target volume, and his ability to find soft spots in coverage will be critical against a Ravens defense that has been effective at neutralizing tight ends. If Cleveland can sustain drives and create opportunities for Akins, he could make an impact as a reliable outlet in the short-to-intermediate passing game.

Suggested Play
Pass

Ravens Team Overview

QB Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson has positioned the Ravens for a pivotal Week 18 matchup that could secure the AFC North crown. In his most recent outing, Jackson needed only 15 pass attempts to deliver 168 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air, while adding 87 rushing yards and a score on the ground. He has been remarkably consistent, posting multiple passing touchdowns in nine of his last 10 games and 12 of his last 14 appearances. This season, he leads the league in key efficiency metrics, including touchdown rate (8.8%), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (121). The Browns' defense has been competitive, allowing the 13th-fewest passing yards per game (227.7) and multiple touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in nine of their last 11 games. Jackson, however, already demonstrated his ability to dismantle Cleveland's defense earlier this season, throwing for 289 yards and 2 touchdowns while adding 46 rushing yards in a late-October victory. Jackson has showcased his dual-threat ability all season, with a 20-yard run and a 40-yard pass in three of his last four games. His knack for big plays will be crucial against a Browns defense that leads the league in pressure rate (41.3% of dropbacks)—a stat that might actually play into Baltimore's hands, given Jackson's ability to escape pressure and create explosive plays.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 34.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115)



RB Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry broke out of a four-game slump over the past two weeks with dominant performances, racking up 147 rushing yards last week and a touchdown on 27 carries, along with 18 receiving yards on two catches against Houston. This milestone marked yet another season of heavy usage for Henry, who has surpassed 300 carries for the fourth time in six years. He’s also within striking distance of two significant benchmarks: just 47 total yards away from 2,000 scrimmage yards and 217 rushing yards shy of his second career 2,000-yard rushing season. The Browns present a mixed challenge for Henry. While they allow the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game (83.3) to running backs, they also rank 12th-worst in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.13). Henry exploited this defense in Week 8, delivering an efficient performance with 73 rushing yards and a touchdown on only 11 carries, despite unfavorable game circumstances. This matchup sets up as an ideal opportunity for Henry to showcase his signature late-season dominance. Cleveland has struggled against physical runners, allowing the fourth-most yards after contact per carry and rushing touchdowns at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Historically, Henry peaks as the season progresses, as evidenced by his four consecutive games with 125+ scrimmage yards to close out the 2022 regular season, including a 153-yard dismantling of the Jaguars in Week 18. Given his current form and the matchup's dynamics, Henry is poised for another standout performance, potentially carrying the Ravens’ offense.

Suggested Play

‘O’ 92.5 Rush Yards (-110)




WR Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers struggled to make an impact in his most recent outing, finishing with just 2 catches for 31 yards on 5 targets. Despite the quiet performance, Flowers remains a central figure in the Ravens' passing game, leading the team in target share (25.4%), route participation (86.8%), air yards share (31.9%), and first-read share (31.1%). However, his touchdown production has been limited, with only four scores on the season. Flowers thrives against single-high coverage, a scheme the Browns use at the second-highest rate in the league (64.4%). Against this look, he’s been highly efficient, averaging 3.06 yards per route run and generating .28 targets per route run over 250 routes. Cleveland’s defense has shown some vulnerability to wide receivers, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards per game (110.6) to those aligned out wide. The last time these two teams met in Week 8, Flowers had one of his best performances of the season, recording 7 catches for 115 yards on 12 targets. With his ability to exploit single-high coverage and past success against this defense, he’ll likely remain a key target for Lamar Jackson in this divisional matchup. 

 

Suggested Play
‘O’ 22.5 Yard Longest Reception (-120)



WR Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman has demonstrated a knack for finding the end zone, scoring 7 touchdowns across his last 14 games. However, his recent outing against the Texans was underwhelming, as he managed only one catch for 12 yards on a single target. Bateman’s performance against single-high coverage, which the Browns use at the second-highest rate in the league (64.4%), has been modest. He averages 1.36 yards per route run and generates .14 targets per route run across 221 routes against this scheme. Despite this, Cleveland’s defense has been susceptible to wide receivers aligned out wide, surrendering the third-most touchdowns (14) to such players this season. When Bateman faced the Browns in Week 8, he was limited to just a 28-yard catch on five targets. While his recent production has been inconsistent, his ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and Cleveland's vulnerability in defending wide receivers near the goal line could create opportunities for him in this rematch.

Suggested Play

‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+325)



TE Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews has been a dominant force in the passing game, continuing his red-hot streak with a 68-yard touchdown on just two targets against the Texans. This marked his fifth consecutive game with a touchdown, bringing his total to 10 scores in the last 11 contests. Andrews has significantly elevated his season performance after a slow start, becoming a crucial offensive weapon. The Browns' defense frequently employs single-high coverage (64.4% of snaps, the second-highest rate in the league), a scheme Andrews has exploited effectively. Against this look, he averages 2.19 yards per route run and generates targets on 20% of his routes. However, Cleveland's defense has generally been stingy against tight ends, allowing the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game (46.3) and receptions per game (4.8) to the position. Andrews previously faced the Browns in late October, finishing with 5 receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown. While Cleveland presents a tough matchup for tight ends, Andrews’ ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities makes him a key player to watch in this divisional clash.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+160)

Game Prediction

 

This game has one of the larger spreads you will see in the NFL, with the Ravens favored by an outstanding 20.5 points at home. It makes sense on the surface, as the Ravens should dominate on paper in every facet of the game with the Browns starting their 4th QB of the season in Bailey Zappe. With the Ravens still having something to play for and with a hungry backup QB in Zappe looking to stay in the league in years to come, I am looking for a spirited effort to play spoiler from Cleveland against a team that they have actually beaten in 3 out of their last 5 meetings. Baltimore will win big, but not that big

 

Best Bet: Browns +20.5 -125
Lean: ‘U’ 41.5  +100
Ravens 27 Browns 10

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Picks

(Ravens) Rashod Bateman +325
Rashod Bateman has demonstrated a knack for finding the end zone, scoring 7 touchdowns across his last 14 games. Cleveland’s defense has been susceptible to wide receivers aligned out wide, surrendering the third-most touchdowns (14) to such players this season. While his recent production has been inconsistent, his ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and Cleveland's vulnerability in defending wide receivers near the goal line could create opportunities for him in this rematch.

 

(Ravens) Mark Andrews +160
Mark Andrews has been a dominant force in the passing game, continuing his red-hot streak with a 68-yard touchdown on just two targets against the Texans. This marked his fifth consecutive game with a touchdown, bringing his total to 10 scores in the last 11 contests. Andrews has significantly elevated his season performance after a slow start, becoming a crucial offensive weapon. The Browns' defense frequently employs single-high coverage (64.4% of snaps, the second-highest rate in the league), a scheme Andrews has exploited effectively.

1st Touchdown: 

(Ravens) Derrick Henry +310
Henry has scored a TD in 6/16 games this season in the first quarter, which is one of the higher rates in the league. He also is averaging 67% of team rush attempts in the red zone, which is impressive considering the team also has Lamar Jackson, who often takes touches in the red zone himself. The Browns have been gashed by the RB position this year, and Henry should have a good chance to find the end zone early.

 

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1 +470

Derrick Henry ‘O’ 92.5 Rush Yards

Lamar Jackson ‘O’ 34.5 Longest Pass Completion

Jerry Jeudy ‘O’ 53.5 Receiving Yards

 

Parlay 2 +870

Derrick Henry First TD

Mark Andrews ATD




Bengals Team Overview

QB Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow leads the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs, averaging 290.1 passing yards per game and he’s thrown 42 total TDs. He has a 69.8% completion percentage and a 109.8 QB rating. When these 2 teams matched up a month ago, Burrow threw for 309 passing yards and 3 TDs. On the season, the Steelers allow the 10th most passing yards and are middle of the pack in passing TDs allowed. Their pass defense has been weaker as of late, as they have allowed the 6th most yards per game and 2nd most passing TDs since week 12. The Steelers have played the highest frequency of single-high coverage in the NFL this season (67.9%). Against single-high, Burrow averages 7.83 YPA, a 67.3% completion rate and a QB rating of 102.7. That compares to 7.52 YPA, a completion rate of 71.9% and a QB rating of 115.5 against two-high. No meaningful insight from these splits. With the Bengals in another must win game and Chase Brown battling injury, I’d expect Joe Burrow and the Bengals to once again be the most pass heavy team in the NFL (#1 in Pass Rate Over Expected).

Suggested Pick
“O” 287.5 Pass Yds (-115)
“O” 25.5 Completions (-130)
“O” 2.5 Pass TDs (+144)
“O” 0.5 INT (-133)

 

RB Chase Brown
Brown is a game-time decision as he suffered a mild ankle sprain last week and he has yet to practice this week. If he cannot ultimately go, or is limited, Khalil Herbert will step in in his place. Since taking over the lead back role when Zach Moss suffered a season-ending injury, Brown has had a CMC-esque workload. Since week 9, he’s averaging 78.9 rushing yards and 37.4 receiving yards per game. He also has 6 total TDs. He’s averaging 4.18 YPC on an 85.8% snap share. He has run 62.3% of his attempts in zone concept, where he averages 4.28 YPC and a 54.3% success rate. That compares to 4.02 YPC and a 50% success rate when running in man/gap concept. The Steelers allow the 11th fewest rushing yards and are middle of the pack in TDs allowed to RB. They are also middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to RB. In terms of the running defense, the Steelers have massive splits against zone vs man/gap concept. They allow a league high 5.11 YPC against zone concept, which is Brown’s preferred rush concept. That compares to a league low of 2.73 YPC against man/gap concepts, which Brown also struggles in comparatively speaking. There are too many unknowns with Chase’s ankle injury, even if he ends up suiting up, he may be limited. We also do not have much data to go off if Herbert gets the lead back role here and I’m expecting a pass heavy attack from the Bengals.

Suggested Pick
Pass

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase
Chase has been the best WR in the NFL this season, averaging 100.8 receiving yards per game on 2.48 YPRR, 24% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 33.4%. He also has a league leading 16 receiving TDs. On the season, the Steelers allow the 9th most receiving yards and are middle of the pack in receiving TDs allowed to WR. Their pass defense has been trending down as of late, as they are allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game since week 12. When these teams matched up a month ago, Chase had 6 receptions for 86 yards and a TD. In terms of pre-snap alignment, Chase has lined up out wide on 63.5% and in the slot on 34.4% of his routes. The Steelers allow the 6th highest target share and the 2nd most receiving yards per game to wide alignment. They are in the middle of the pack against the slot. The Steelers have played the highest frequency of single-high coverage in the NFL this season (67.9%). Ja’Marr has positive splits against single-high, averaging 3.05 YPRR, 28% TPRR and has a 1st-read rate of 35.8%. The Bengals have been the most pass heavy team in the NFL over expectations this season, with Chase Brown banged up, I expect Joe Burrow and the Bengals to continue to lean on that passing game against a declining Steelers pass defense.

Suggested Pick
“O” 92.5 Rec Yds (-113)

 

WR Tee Higgins
Tee Higgins is averaging 78 receiving yards per game on 2.18 YPRR, 26% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 31.6%, slightly behind Chase. On the season, the Steelers allow the 9th most receiving yards and are middle of the pack in receiving TDs allowed to WR. Their pass defense has been trending down as of late, as they are allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game since week 12. When these teams matched up a month ago, Tee had 5 receptions for 69 yards and a TD. In terms of pre-snap alignment, Tee has lined up out wide on 79.7% of his routes and in the slot on 20.1%. The Steelers allow the 6th highest target share and the 2nd most receiving yards per game to wide alignment. The Steelers have played the highest frequency of single-high coverage in the NFL this season (67.9%). Tee Higgins has slightly negative splits against single-high, averaging 1.97 YPRR, 25% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 30.1%. The Bengals have been the most pass heavy team in the NFL over expectations this season, with Chase Brown banged up, I expect Joe Burrow and the Bengals to continue to lean on that passing game against a declining Steelers pass defense.

Suggested Pick
“O” 74.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Anytime TD (+100)

 

TE Mike Gesicki
On the season, Gesicki averages 37.3 receiving yards per game, 1.61 YPRR and 20% TPRR. For most of the season, Mike was non-existent whenever Tee Higgins played. However, last week, he broke out with 10 receptions on 12 targets for 86 yards. We’ll see if that momentum carries into this week. The Steelers allow the 6th most receptions, 13th most receiving yards and 8th most TDs to TE. Gesicki caught 5 receptions for 53 yards in their matchup a month ago. Gesicki primarily lines up out of the slot, accounting for 67.7% of his routes. The Steelers are middle of the pack in key statistics defending the slot. The Steelers have played the highest frequency of single-high coverage in the NFL this season (67.9%). Gesicki has positive splits against single-high, averaging 1.86 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. Gesicki’s snap share was up to 57% last week after being below 35% for 3 straight weeks. After last week’s success and Chase Brown being banged up, I would expect Mike to continue to see a healthy snap share and to produce against this Steelers defense.

Suggested Pick
“O” 3.5 Rec (+130)
“O” 28.5 Rec Yds (-110)
40+ Rec Yds (+200)
50+ Rec Yds (+350)

Steelers Team Overview

QB Russell Wilson
Russ is averaging 233.4 passing yards per game, 7.65 YPA and has thrown 15 TDs. He has a 97.4 QB rating and a 64.6% completion percentage. He’ll face a Bengals defense allowing the 9th most passing yards and the 6th most passing TDs. Russ had his best game of the season against the Bengals a month ago, throwing for 414 passing yards and 3 TDs. On the season, the Bengals play zone coverage 68.5% of the time and have a 50-50 split between single-high and two-high. However, since week 13, the Bengals have leaned into two-high playing it at the 2nd highest rate (60.4%). Against zone coverage, Wilson averages 7.24 YPA, has a completion rate of 67.3% and a QB rating of 90.9. That compares to 9.44 YPA, a completion rate of 61.8% and a QB rating of 106.0 vs man coverage. Against two-high, Russ has negative splits averaging 6.66 YPA and has a QB rating of 91.9. The Bengals are also susceptible to the deep pass, allowing the 5th most passing yards of 40+ yards. Russell averages the 4th most passing yards per game on passes 20+ yards down field. His connection with Pickens on the deep ball has been lethal. He averages 261.6 passing yards per game with Pickens compared to only 167.7 passing yards without.

Suggested Pick
“O” 231.5 Pass Yds (-113)

 

RB Jaylen Warren
Warren has seen a 50%+ snap share in 4 straight games, as this RB room is a committee. Warren averages 4.30 YPC on the season and is averaging 46.9 rushing yards per game when he sees a 40%+ snap share. In these 8 games, he also averages 2.8 receptions and 24.4 receiving yards per game. The Bengals are middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed but allow the 7th most rushing TDs to RB. They also allow the 9th most receiving yards to RB. 71.1% of Warren’s rush attempts have come in zone concept, where he averages 4.49 YPC and a 53.1% success rate. That compares to 3.38 YPC and a 40.6% success rate in man/gap concepts. Looking at the Bengals, they are relatively stronger defending zone concepts. They allow 4.16 YPC against zone concepts (17th most) compared to 4.97 YPC against man/gap concepts (8th most). In terms of the receiving game, Warren has gotten most of the opportunity as he has a 47.7% route rate compared to Najee’s 26.9% since week 12. Warren had 4 receptions for 55 receiving yards in their first matchup, I don’t think that’s a bad angle to attack again here.

Suggested Pick
“O” 3.5 Rec (+126)
“O 21.5 Rec Yds (-110)
30+ Rec Yds (+170)
40+ Rec Yds (+350)

 

RB Najee Harris
On the season, Najee averages 62.9 rushing yards per game on 4.01 YPC and has rushed for 5 TDs. He’s averaging 16.4 receiving yards per game. However, he has lost snap share as of late. In his last 5 games, his average snap share is 40%, which is down from 50.1% for the entire season. Warren has been more effective, especially in the passing game, which has taken some opportunities away from Harris. 70.5% of Najee’s carries have been in zone concept, where he averages 4.06 YPC and 43.5% success rate. In man/gap concept, he averages 3.89 YPC and a 43.2% success rate. Najee has been more effective on a per carry basis than Warren in man/gap concept, but less effective in zone concept. The Bengals struggle more against man/gap concept but considering both Steelers RBs only run out of this concept about 30% of the time, I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on this being a great spot in the running game. One thing to keep in mind is that Najee sees more playing time when the Steelers are winning. The Bengals are 2.5-point favorites here, but anything can happen. This may present a live betting opportunity if one team gets out to an early lead.

Suggested Pick
Pass (look for live bet opportunity based on game script)

 

WR George Pickens
Pickens has had an excellent season, averaging 69.2 receiving yards per game on 2.40 YPRR and a 25% TPRR. He has a 33.2% 1st-read rate, which is nearly twice as high as the Steelers #2 option, Pat Freiermuth. Pickens is this offense, especially with Wilson at QB. The Bengals are middle of the pack in receiving yards and receiving TDs allowed to WR. In their matchup a month ago, Pickens caught 3 receptions for 74 yards and a TD. George has lined up out wide on 74.9% of his routes. The Bengals are middle of the pack in both target share and receiving yards allowed to wide alignment. On the season, the Bengals play zone coverage 68.5% of the time and have a 50-50 split between single-high and two-high. However, since week 13, the Bengals have leaned into two-high playing it at the 2nd highest rate (60.4%). Against two-high, Pickens has struggled averaging only 1.24 YPRR, 17% TPRR and a 1st-read rate of 22.1%. Against zone, Pickens also sees slightly negative splits, averaging 2.33 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Overall, not a great matchup for Pickens based on scheme.

Suggested Pick
“U” 4.5 Rec (+110)

 

WR Calvin Austin
Austin averages 34.3 receiving yards per game, 1.65 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. The Bengals are middle of the pack in receiving yards and receiving TDs allowed to WR. In their matchup a month ago, Calvin was hurt and was only able to play 23% of the snaps. Calvin Austin leads the Steelers starting WRs in slot rate at 59.2%. The Bengals allow the 12th lowest target share but the 10th most receiving yards per game to the slot. On the season, the Bengals play zone coverage 68.5% of the time and have a 50-50 split between single-high and two-high. However, since week 13, the Bengals have leaned into two-high playing it at the 2nd highest rate (60.4%). Against two-high, Austin sees positive splits averaging 1.90 YPRR (leads PIT) and 17% TPRR. Against zone, Austin sees slightly positive splits averaging 1.89 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Overall, a nice matchup for Austin based on scheme.

Suggested Pick
“O” 2.5 Rec (-110)
“O” 30.5 Rec Yds (-115)
40+ Rec Yds (+150)
50+ Rec Yds (+235)

 

TE Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth averages 35.6 receiving yards per game, 1.47 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. He is 2nd on the team in 1st-read rate at 16.8%, which is dominated by Pickens at 33.2%. Freiermuth will face a Bengals defense allowing the most receptions, 3rd most receiving yards and the 3rd most receiving TDs to TE. In their matchup a month ago, Pat had 6 receptions for 68 yards and a TD. Pat has lined up in the slot on 55.2% and inline on 27.1% of his routes. The Bengals allow the 12th lowest target share but the 10th most receiving yards per game to the slot. To inline alignment, the Bengals allow the 2nd highest target share and the 4th most receiving yards per game. On the season, the Bengals play zone coverage 68.5% of the time and have a 50-50 split between single-high and two-high. However, since week 13, the Bengals have leaned into two-high playing it at the 2nd highest rate (60.4%). Against two-high, Freiermuth sees slightly positive splits averaging 1.49 YPRR and 19% TPRR. His 1st-read rate is only slightly behind Pickens at 21%. Against zone coverage, Pat sees slightly positive splits averaging 1.53 YPRR and 18% TPRR. Overall, a bullish matchup for Pat.

Suggested Pick
“O” 31.5 Rec Yds (-115)
40+ Rec Yds (+145)
50+ Rec Yds (+250)
60+ Rec Yds (+425)

Game Prediction

These teams matched up a month ago, with the Steelers winning 44 to 38 as 3-point underdogs. Since then, the Bengals have gone on to win 4 straight and need to win this game and get help to make the playoffs. The Steelers are coming off a rough loss to the Chiefs on Christmas and they have lost 3 straight. The Steelers have won 4 of their last 5 matchups against the Bengals. The Steelers have not looked good as of late, but they have also faced the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs, 3 of the top teams in the NFL. I think this is a perfect buy low spot for them and have this closer to a pick ‘em spot.

 

Best Bet (Steelers +3.5 -145)
Lean (Over 47.5)
Steelers 27 Bengals 24

First/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TDs

Best Pick: (PIT) Pat Freiermuth +330
Pat has scored a TD in 4 of his last 8 games and faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the 2nd most receiving TDs to TE on the season. Freiermuth found the endzone in this same matchup a month ago. Freiermuth has positive splits against two-high, which the Bengals have played at one of the highest rates in the NFL since week 13.

 

Longshot: (PIT) Mike Williams +600
He has seen his snap share increase every week since the beginning of December and has had 2+ targets in 4 straight weeks. Mike has the skill set to catch TDs with his large frame, which he’s shown in previous seasons. Every week is another week removed from his ACL injury, I like the possibility of Russ throwing it up to him.

 

First TD

Best Pick: (CIN) Tee Higgins
The Steelers have allowed the 8th most receiving TDs to WR and Tee has caught a TD in 64% of his games this season. That includes a TD in this same matchup a month ago. Higgins has 5 and 4 targets in the 1st quarter the past 2 weeks, I like that volume to continue as the game plan will likely be around Ja’Marr, who’s been the #1 WR in the NFL this season.

 

Longshot: (PIT) Pat Freiermuth +1700
Same reason as above, he has a bullish matchup against a Bengals defense allowing the 2nd most receiving TDs to TE. I also like his splits as the Bengals lean more into two-high. The weather is also expected to be cold and windy, and could see more underneath passes from Russ, bullish for Pat as opposed to Pickens.

 

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay #1: (+424)

Joe Burrow 275+ Pass Yds

Pat Freiermuth “O” 34.5 Rec Yds

Jaylen Warren “O” 21.5 Rec Yds

 

Parlay #2: (+1238)

Pat Freiermuth 50+ Rec Yds

Calvin Austin 40+ Rec Yds

Mike Gesicki 4+ Rec

 

Parlay #3: Longshot (+3628)

Pat Freiermuth 60+ Rec Yds

Mike Gesicki 60+ Rec Yds

Joe Burrow 3+ Pass TDs


Commanders Team Overview

QB Jayden Daniels
This game doesn't have much implications for the Commanders as they've already punched their ticket to the playoffs. They currently sit in the sixth seed in the NFC but can't win the division and can't move to the fifth seed either. The best-case scenario is they win this game and stay in the sixth seed to face the Los Angeles Rams and avoid playing their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. But first, they've got to get through the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is allowing the 11th fewest completions (20.5), the eighth fewest pass attempts (30.1), but the 13th most passing yards (240.4). The Cowboys run around league average in both man coverage and zone coverage, but rank 13th in man coverage. Daniels is middle of the pack against man coverage in terms of passing yards per game, but struggles with completion percentage, completing 59.1% of his passes, ranking 26th in the NFL. Where Daniels will see his biggest advantage is on the ground. He is second only behind Lamar Jackson in rushing yards for QBs, trailing him by only 32 yards. The Cowboys allow the third most rushing yards per game (29.4) per game to opposing QBs. Daniels has been a running machine over the past three games, recording 60+ rushing yards in three straight, topping out at 127 in last week's overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons. In a game where the Commanders are battling for seeding, they should rely on his legs often. Daniels rushed seven times for 74 yards in their latest meeting against the Cowboys.

Suggested Pick:
Jayden Daniels o46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB Brian Robinson
Robinson has had this game circled on his calendar for a few weeks now. And not for the reason you may be thinking. Robinson had his worst game of the season, rushing for just 13 yards on five attempts. Granted, he only played seven snaps, but he'll surely be seeking a bounceback game against this division rival. The Cowboys were one of the best RB targets on the ground, but have recently played better and now allow the 13th most rushing yards (99.2) and the seventh most receiving yards (37) per game. What sticks out there is the receiving yards to RBs. But now that Ekeler is returning, Robinson is likely to see his work in the passing game decrease. In games with Ekeler this season, Robinson averages just 10.9 receiving yards, which is heavily brought up by a 49 yard receiving game in Week 1. However, this frees up Robinson to focus on his ground game. The Cowboys runs zone concept 51.6% of the time, which isn't great for Robinson, as he averages nearly a full yard per carry less than man/gap. Dallas has allowed opposing starting RBs to rush for 50+ rushing yards in six of their last eight games.

Suggested Pick:
Brian Robinson o48.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Terry McLaurin
Scary Terry has a lot to play for this week, as with one receiving TD he can set single season Washington Commanders/Red Skins/Football Team record for TDs. And it's a pretty good matchup to do so, considering the Cowboys are allowing 1.13 receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs per game. On top of that, they are also allowing the seventh most receptions (12.6) and the eighth most receiving yards (159.9) per game to WRs. In a previous meeting this season against the Cowboys, McLaurin was having a relatively quiet game. That was until he broke off a late 86-yard receiving TD to tie the game. He would finish the game with five receptions on six targets for 102 receiving yards and one TD. With the Cowboys running around league average in both man and zone coverage, that matches with McLaurin, as he has very similar stats and PFF grade in both coverages. The only advantage he sees against man coverage (which the Cowboys run slightly more compared to the league) is in his target share, earning a team high 23.3%. But what is telling, is that he sees his yards per reception decrease against man coverage while his aDoT is higher. McLaurin is projected to be shadowed by DaRon Bland. Bland has been just alright since returning from his injury. He has allowed a 68.6% catch rate on 35 targets. However, he has allowed a 20+ yard reception in four of those six games and three TDs. When players are chasing incentives or team records, you've just go to believe that the team will get that done for them. McLaurin has scored six TDs in his last five games.

Suggested Pick:
Terry McLaurin TD (+110)

 

WR Olamide Zaccheaus
Zaccheaus really stepped up last week when McLaurin disappeared. Zaccheaus caught eight of his nine targets for 85 receiving yards and one score. Make that now back to back weeks where Zaccheaus has logged five receptions and 70 receiving yards. Where did this come from? Cause it wasn't like this back in Week 12 when Zaccheaus had just one catch for eight yards the last time they faced the Cowboys. Zaccheaus lines up on the right side 65% of the time and will likely draw the Andrew Booth matchup. Booth earned only his second start of the season and the first since Week 4 last week. It's safe to say he struggled, allowing five receptions on six targets for 111 receiving yards. Considering the Cowboys run slightly more man, they still run 67.4% of their routes in zone coverage. Which is important for Zaccheaus as he earns a whopping 24% target share in zone. With his recent uptick in volume and in a matchup against a struggling CB when he's going to see that big of a target share. Fire me up some Zaccheaus.

Suggested Pick:
Olamide Zaccheaus over receiving yards up to 50

 

TE Zach Ertz
Incentive season is here and it's real. Ertz needs nine receptions, 90 receiving yards and two TDs to earn $250,000 per stat if he manages to hit it. What can the team control the most? Receptions. You can make sure your receiver catches the ball, but can't necessarily guarantee his yards. Ertz had his best game since Week 8 last week, catching six of his seven targets for 72 receiving yards and two TDs, including the game winning TD in overtime. However, it might be a struggle for Ertz in this matchup as the Cowboys allow the second fewest receptions (3.8) and the eighth fewest receiving yards (41.6) per game to opposing TEs. While it may be a tough matchup, I'm always going to side with incentives because the players care about getting their teammates paid.

Suggested Pick:
Zach Ertz over receptions up to 4.5

Cowboys Team Overview

QB Cooper Rush
When Dak Prescott went down, the Cowboys pretty much knew their season was over and maybe wanted them to give Trey Lance a chance to start and see what he could be for this team. However, Cooper Rush got the start and has honestly done well with his opporunity. Outside of two games against the Eagles, Rush averages 247.5 passing yards, 1.7 passing TDs and a 63.3% completion percentage. In an earlier meeting against the Commanders, Rush went 24/32 for 247 passing yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. This Commanders pass defence has had an incredible turnaround from the beginning of the season. They allow the fewest completions (17.9), the second fewest pass attempts (28.8) and the third fewest passing yards (201.7) per game. Washington runs the sixth most man coverage (34.8%) in the league. And this is where Rush really struggles. Of QBs to appear in 10+ games, Rush has the second lowest completion percentage (47%) against the coverage, averaging just 38 yards per game. Not to mention, he won't have his biggest offensive weapon in CeeDee Lamb for this game. Last week without CeeDee, Rush through for 147 passing yards. I can't imagine he has a better game this week, against a similarly difficult matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Play Cooper Rush under passing yards as long as it's above 190

 

 

RB Rico Dowdle
Bye bye Zeke, hello full workload for Rico Dowdle. Dowdle has been the starter for a few games now and exploded with over 100 rushing yards in four of those five games, adding 53 receiving yards through the air. The game before Dowdle was handed the keys to the backfield was against the Commanders. Dowdle had still had a good game, going for 86 rushing yards on 19 rush attempts. The Commanders allow the fifth most rushing yards (113.2) on the ground, but are great through the air, limiting opposing RBs to 23.4 receiving yards, third fewest in the league. Washington runs more man/gap than zone concept, and struggle even more in that coverage, allowing a 5.72 yards per carry. This is perfect for Dowdle, as he averages 5.04 yards per carry against man/gap. Dowdle quietly sits 14th in the league in rush yards, hitting the 1k mark. This could be the game where the Cowboys decide whether to move forward with him next season or draft a RB this offseason. Dowdle should bring his A-game to try and convince the organization he's got what it takes to lead this Cowboys backfield for years to come.

Suggested Pick:
Rico Dowdle o59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Brandin Cooks
With no CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks has the opportunity to receive the number one WR role in this offence. He had it last week and he earned eight targets, catching four of them for 52 receiving yards. The Commanders are a much taller task, however, considering they allow the eighth fewest receptions (11) and the 10th fewest receiving yards (138.9) per game. With Washington running the sixth most man coverage in the league, Cooks doesn't gain any sort of advantage in man coverage. In fact, he sees his catch rate and aDoT significantly decrease from zone coverage. Cooks was still out when the Cowboys played the Commanders earlier this season, so no stats from this season to look into. Cooks lines up on the left 43% of the time and will likely draw the Michael Davis matchup. Davis is not a normal starter, outside of last week. He allowed eight receptions on nine targets for 92 receiving yards. Cooks should be able to cook this matchup if he gets to face off against Davis for the majority of the game.

Suggested Pick:
Play Brandin Cooks receptions to o3.5.

 

 

WR Jalen Tolbert
When Cooks was out of the lineup, Tolbert was a major factor in this offence. However, since his return, he's been fizzled out. In the seven games without Cooks, he averaged 35.7 receiving yards, but that number dips to 29.1 with Cooks in the lineup. However, Tolbert does not garner a massive target share, averaging just a 12.3 target share this season. That numbers dip down to 12.1% against man coverage. He also sees his target catch rate fall from 69.4% in zone to 52.9% against man, his yards after catch per reception dip from 3.2 to 2.4. But what does massively increase is his yards per reception jump from 10.2 against zone to 18.7 against man and his aDoT increase from 11.8 against zone to 16.5 against man. Tolbert lines up on the right side 42% of the time and will likely draw the Mike Sainristil matchup. Sainristil has allowed just a 55.8% catch rate despite being targeted 42 times over his previous seven games. But where they can burn him is deep, Sainristil has allowed a 30+ yard reception in two of his last four games. Tolbert has logged a 15+ long reception in 10 of 16 games this season.

Suggested Pick:
Jalen Tolbert Long reception up to 14.5

 

 

TE Jake Ferguson
It's been a slow return for Ferguson since he came back from his injury. In the four games since he returned, he is averaging just 28.3 receiving yards per game on 3.5 receptions. I don't anticipate things turning around for Ferguson in this matchup as the Commanders allow the fourth fewest receptions (4) and the sixth fewest receiving yards (40.6) to opposing TEs. Ferguson isn't necessarily a man killer, either, having the third lowest PFF grade on the Cowboys. Ferguson sees all his important metrics dip when he switches from zone to man coverage: target share, yards per reception, yards per route run, yards after catch per reception and aDoT. Ferguson lines up in the slot 59.5% of the time. The Commanders are middle of the pack in terms of catch rate and receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Again, no real advantages for Ferguson in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Jake Ferguson under receiving yards down to 40.5

Game Prediction

So, is there a big difference for the Commanders whether they lose this game or not? I'd say so. Playing the Rams looks a lot more enticing than playing the Eagles. For this reason, I think the Commanders come out and try and win this game. This game was close the last time these two teams played, but now the Cowboys will be without CeeDee, and I think that's just too big of a hill for the Cowboys to climb.

Pick - Commanders -6.5
Lean - Under 43.5

Commanders 27 - Cowboys 14

1st/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD 

Teddy McLaurin (+110)
We spoke about this in the McLaurin section. He is one receiving TD away from breaking the franchise record and has scored six TDs in the previous five games. He should be hyper-targeted in the red zone to help get McLaurin in the record books.

 

Rico Dowdle TD (-110)

These are kind of bad odds for his recent history. He has only found the end zone once since being named the starter, and just four times this season. However, he's going to be used often and in this matchup where the Commanders are allowing one TD per game to opposing RBs.

First TD

Olamide Zaccheaus First TD (+1200)
The Commanders have scored the first TD in seven games this season: Zaccheaus, Daniels and McLaurin all scoring twice, and Robinson once. The Cowboys have only scored the first TD in four games this season, with two being form Lamb, who's out for this game. While I do think McLaurin finds the end zone, that might be too predictable early on, and they'll find Zaccheaus first, and McLaurin later.

 

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1: +170 odds on bet365

Washington Commanders Moneyline

Jayden Daniels 40+ Rushing Yards

Brian Robinson 40+ Rushing Yards

 

Parlay 2: +300 odds on bet365

Terry McLaurin TD

Rico Dowdle 60+ Rushing Yards


Chargers Team Overview

QB Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert continued his strong form with a standout performance against the Patriots, throwing for 281 yards and three touchdowns on 38 attempts, while adding 12 rushing yards on three carries. This marks his third consecutive game with multiple touchdown passes, showcasing his consistency and ability to lead the Chargers' offense effectively. Over his last seven games, Herbert has attempted 30 or more passes in six contests, a clear indicator of the Chargers’ reliance on him. This week, Herbert takes on a Raiders defense that has allowed the 14th-fewest passing yards per game (227.7) but has struggled in the red zone, surrendering the sixth-most passing touchdowns per game (1.7). While his season opener against the Raiders was relatively quiet—completing 17 of 26 passes for 144 yards and a single touchdown—Herbert has since hit his stride, and the Chargers' offense has found better rhythm. However, due to concerns with game script, I do not love Herbert as a player that stands out to me stats wise in this game.

Suggested Play
Pass

 

RB JK Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins brought much-needed energy to the Chargers’ ground game in his return from a four-game absence due to a knee injury. He logged 19 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown, along with a 7-yard reception, in a productive outing against the Patriots. Dobbins, who is just 58 yards away from reaching 900 on the season—a milestone that would secure him a $150,000 bonus—has extra motivation heading into this week. The Raiders' defense has been solid but not impenetrable against running backs. They rank middle of the pack in several categories, allowing the 16th-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.00), the 15th-fewest rushing yards per game (96.6), and the 14th-fewest receptions per game (4.3) to running backs. However, Dobbins had a standout performance against them in the season opener, rushing for 135 yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries while adding three receptions for 4 yards. Given his explosive ability and demonstrated success against the Raiders earlier in the year, Dobbins could play a significant role in the Chargers’ offense this week, particularly as they look to balance their attack and secure a key win.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 77.5 Rush Yards (-120)

 

WR Ladd McConkey
Ladd McConkey delivered a standout performance against the Patriots, recording eight receptions for 94 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets. This continues a highly consistent stretch for McConkey, who has surpassed 52 receiving yards in nine consecutive games and logged four or more receptions in 11 of his last 12 outings. His reliability as a playmaker has been a critical asset for his team’s passing game. This week, McConkey faces a Raiders defense that has struggled to contain slot receivers, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards per game (82.2) and the 10th-most receptions (117) to players aligned in the slot. In his professional debut against Las Vegas earlier this season, McConkey contributed five receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. As McConkey continues to solidify his role as a key offensive weapon, he’ll look to build on his success against a Raiders defense vulnerable to slot production. His versatility and consistent contributions make him a crucial part of the offensive game plan heading into this week’s matchup.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 76.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

 

WR Quentin Johnston
Quentin Johnston has struggled to deliver consistent production this season, failing to surpass 48 receiving yards in his last eight games and doing so only twice in 14 outings. His most recent performance against the Patriots saw him post five receptions for 48 yards on eight targets, continuing a trend of limited yardage. While Johnston has found the end zone in five of his last nine games, his overall production has been inconsistent, with multiple games falling short of significant impact. This week, Johnston faces a Raiders defense that has been solid against wide receivers, allowing the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game (86.0) and the ninth-fewest receiving touchdowns (8) to players aligned out wide. In the season opener against Las Vegas, Johnston recorded three receptions for 38 yards on five targets, a performance indicative of the Raiders' ability to limit his opportunities. For Johnston to make an impact in this matchup, he’ll need to break through a disciplined secondary that has kept wide receivers in check for much of the season. His role as a target in the passing game provides potential, but the challenge of facing the Raiders' defense will require maximizing his opportunities.

Suggested Play
Pass

 

TE Will Dissly
Will Dissly made his return last weekend after missing two games with a shoulder injury. While Dissly's presence provides value to the Chargers in terms of blocking and reliability, his impact on the stat sheet has been limited this season. Dissly’s role is defined by a shallow route tree, with an average depth of target of just 4.9 yards. In a run-heavy offense that prioritizes a dynamic receiver like Ladd McConkey, Dissly’s opportunities to shine are few and far between. Like many tight ends, Dissly’s production is heavily reliant on scoring touchdowns, but he has only been targeted in the end zone once this season. Given these factors, Dissly’s contributions are likely to remain more pivotal in facilitating the offense rather than in piling up yardage or scores. His role is important to the team but doesn’t position him as a primary playmaker in the Chargers’ system.

Suggested Play
Pass

Raiders Team Overview

QB Aidan O’Connell
Aidan O’Connell showcased his ability to step up in key situations during his last game, converting 12 third-down pass attempts into 131 yards and his first third-down touchdown of the season. While his production has been inconsistent this year, O’Connell has shown flashes of promise over the course of his 14 recent appearances, completing 69.4% of his non-pressured passes with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. He has solidified himself as the best current option for the Raiders at quarterback, though there’s room for improvement in Vegas' overall offensive structure. If the team can strengthen their run game or add another reliable pass catcher, O’Connell’s skill set may lend itself to more consistent performances in the future. This week, O’Connell faces a Chargers defense that has been vulnerable to the passing game. Los Angeles has allowed six players to throw for two or more touchdowns this season, and two of those quarterbacks have thrown at least three. Their secondary has also struggled against receivers, giving up 19 touchdown receptions this year. While the Chargers’ run defense has seen similar lapses, their pass coverage presents a prime opportunity for O’Connell to build momentum heading into the offseason, especially with questions about his future in the NFL up in the air.
 
Suggested Play
‘O’ 226.5 Pass Yards (-110)

 

RB Ameer Abdullah
Ameer Abdullah took on a surprisingly significant workload in his most recent game, earning 20 carries—his highest total since 2017—and handling 83% of the team's snaps inside the 10-yard line. This demonstrated a level of touchdown equity not typically associated with a player known primarily for his contributions in the passing game. In Week 18, the Raiders face the Chargers in a matchup that could suit Abdullah's skill set, especially if Las Vegas plays from behind as 5.5-point underdogs. The game script may lean toward more involvement in the passing game for Abdullah, adding to his potential value if he continues to see the bulk of the backfield carries. If Abdullah maintains this expanded role, he could be a key piece for the Raiders’ offense. His ability to contribute both on the ground and through the air makes him a versatile option heading into the final week of the regular season.

Suggested Play
Pass

 

WR Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers has consistently demonstrated the value of reliable volume throughout his career, showcasing his ability to deliver strong performances with an alpha-level role. This season, Meyers has achieved eight top-30 finishes, proving himself as an above-average and dependable receiver. His precise route running and consistent hands make him a trusted target for his quarterback. However, this week’s matchup against the Chargers presents a tougher challenge. The Chargers' defense, while vulnerable at times, has largely struggled against bigger, more physical receivers who excel at winning contested catches and boxing out defenders. Meyers' skill set is built more on timing and separation than physicality, which may limit his opportunities to exploit this specific defensive weakness. Los Angeles has allowed its share of passing touchdowns this season—13 quarterbacks have thrown at least one touchdown against them, and six have thrown for two or more—but they’ve only given up three individual 100-yard receiving performances. Meyers’ ability to make an impact will depend on his volume and his connection with the quarterback, but this matchup may cap his upside against a motivated defense preparing for the postseason.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+215)

 

TE Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers has had a remarkable rookie season, already breaking multiple records and positioning himself to challenge for even more. With 108 receptions so far, he is within striking distance of the all-time single-season reception record for a tight end, set by Zach Ertz in 2018 with 116 catches. Bowers' consistency and volume have been exceptional. He has recorded nine or more receptions in six games this season, showcasing his ability to be a reliable target in any situation. Playing alongside Aidan O’Connell has helped Bowers make the most of his opportunities, as Bowers has commanded a team-high 27.1% target share with O’Connell under center. He’s been targeted on an impressive 28.4% of his routes, underlining his integral role in the offense. The Chargers' approach in Week 18 could influence his chances. If the Steelers win on Saturday night, Los Angeles might consider resting some of their core players on Sunday, potentially creating even more opportunities for Bowers to continue his record-setting pace. Either way, Bowers remains a focal point of his team's offensive strategy and a player to watch as the season comes to a close.

Suggested Play
‘O’  7.5 Receptions (-115)

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Game Prediction

Although neither of these defenses are bad, I actually like the ability of the opposing offenses here simply considering they are wired to do what the opposing defense struggles the most with. Ultimately though, with much more on the line for the Chargers as well as the fact that Herbert and this passing offense is finding its stride at the right time, I like LA to take care of business against a spoiler-hungry Raiders team with a coach in Antonio Pierce potentially coaching for his job.

Best Bet: Chargers -2.5 -155
Lean: Over 41.5 -110

Chargers 27 Raiders 20

1st/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime Touchdown: 

(Raiders) Jakobi Meyers +215
Los Angeles has allowed its share of passing touchdowns this season—13 quarterbacks have thrown at least one touchdown against them, and six have thrown for two or more—but they’ve only given up three individual 100-yard receiving performances. Meyers’ ability to make an impact will depend on his volume and his connection with the quarterback, but this matchup may cap his upside against a motivated defense preparing for the postseason.

(Chargers) Quentin Johnston +210
Although Johnston has not been as consistent as of late from a yardage perspective as of late, he has been peppered with red zone targets over the back-half of the season, and actually has a TD in 5 of his last 9 games. He had a TD last season in his rookie year against the Raiders, and the targets should be there both in the red zone but also as a deep ball threat from outside of the red zone.

 

1st Touchdown 

(Raiders) Michael Mayer +2600
Mayer has primarily served as the blocking tight end alongside Brock Bowers, who takes on the primary receiving duties. However, Mayer has seen significant playing time recently, logging over 60% of snaps in each of the past five games. While it’s a longshot—and Mayer has yet to score a touchdown this season, the possibility of the Chargers resting key players in this game opens the door for unexpected outcomes.

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1 +510

Aidan O’Connell ‘O’ 227.5 Pass Yards

Brock Bowers ‘O’ 77.5 Receiving Yards

Jakobi Meyers ATD

 

Parlay 2 +3915

Brock Bowers ‘O’ 7.5 Receptions

Michael Mayer First TD

Dolphins Team Overview

QB Tyler Huntley
Playoffs are on the line; who better to turn to than Tu...yler Huntley. Tua will remain out for a must-win game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Huntley led the Dolphins to a massive win last week against the Cleveland Browns. He went 22/26 for 225 passing yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions. Now, is that just a byproduct of playing the Browns? It could be, considering he struggled in his three starts earlier in the season. Or is this something we can expect from Huntley now that he's been given more time to get acclimated to the Dolphins playbook? Who knows. Huntley gets the Jets this week who allow the fourth fewest completions (18.9), the sixth fewest pass attempts (29.9) and the fifth fewest passing yards (221.1) per game to QBs. The Jets run the seventh most man coverage in the league. Honestly, it wouldn't be very fair to look too deep into Huntley's man coverage stats, as he has just 18 pass attempts against the coverage this season. Huntley is a man of many talents, however. He isn't afraid to use his legs, tallying 52 yards on seven rush attempts on the ground.

Suggested Pick:
Tyler Huntley o28.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

RB Devon Achane
Another game without Tua means this might be a tough game for Achane, especially through the air. In games with Tua this season, he averages 56.5 rushing yards per game and 48.2 receiving yards per game. However, in games without Tua, he averages just 33 rushing yards and 12.4 receiving yards. In terms of total scrimmage yards, that 104.7 with Tua and 45.4 without. That's nearly a 60 yard difference. Well, last week was a great example of that, considering Achane had 25 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards for 38 total scrimmage yards. That's...terrible, which is unforunate for Achane as in an earlier meeting against the Jets this season, he already struggled with 69 (nice) scrimmage yards in a game WITH Tua. The Jets allow the 15th most rushing yards (97.5) and the seventh fewest receiving yards (28.5) to RBs per game. It might be another tough game on the ground from the RB with burner speed, as the Jets run man/gap 46.6% of the time, while Achane has just a 3.56 yards per carry against the coverage. Now, Huntley might need to use Achane and his speed through the air, but it should be another slow game on the ground for the Dolphins RB. He has gone under 50 rushing yards in five of the last six games, averaging 42.7 rush yards per game. But that's heavily weighted by his 120 rush yard performance against the 49ers. Take that game out, and he averages just 27.2 rush yards per game.

Suggested Pick:
Devon Achane u49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

WR Tyreek Hill
What a disappointing season from Tyreek Hill. While it seems crazy to say that he's just 61 receiving yards away from his sixth consecutive 1,000 yard season, but he just had four seasons in a row with 1,500+ and had 1,800 just last season. So, by those comparables, it is disappointing. But as mentioned, he's just 61 receiving yards away from that mark; that should be an important milestone for him to hit. But can he get there with Huntley? The two connected fairly well last week as Hill caught all nine of his targets for 105 receiving yards. But before that, outside of one game, he hadn't hit the century mark in a game since Week 1. That one game we excluded just so happened to be against the Jets. He caught 11 of his 14 targets for 115 receiving yards. And if I'm being honest, I don't believe New York has been as good as the numbers show. They are allowing the fourth fewest receptions (10.6) and the ninth fewest receiving yards (138.9) to opposing WRs per game. With the Jets running the seventh most man coverage, Hill should be able to use his speed to create enough separation to be a weapon down the field. Hill earns a whopping 31.3% target share but has a pitiful 43.2% catch rate. But when he does catch it, he sees his yards per reception and yards after catch per reception increase against man than he does against zone. Hill lines up on the right side 40% of the time, and will likely draw the Sauce Gardner matchup. Gardner this season is not the scary matchup that it used to be. He still doesn't allow a high catch rate, but when he does get burned, he's allowing big plays. Outside of the previous two games where he played less than 30 snaps and saw one target, Gardner had allowed a 28+ yard reception in five of seven games. Now, for this matchup, we won't take his longest reception as under Huntley last week we saw Hill succeed while having a 9.6 aDoT (the fifth lowest of his season). But he should be able to get close as he pursuits another 1,000 yard season.

Suggested Pick:
Tyreek Hill o49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

 

WR Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle missed last weeks game, so we really don't have any numbers of him with Huntley. Sure, the beginning of the season but we saw a different Huntley last week than we have before. It was unfortunate that Waddle got injured, as he was having a little bit of a resurgence, registering just under 300 receiving yards in his previous game before he got hurt. This included a nine reception, 12 target, 99 receiving yard game a few weeks back against the Jets. Waddle has the highest PFF receiving grade on the Dolphins against man coverage, but gets heavily out targeted by Hill in the coverage. Waddle sees his catch rate, his yards per route run and his aDoT increase in the coverage. Waddle lines up outwide 72.1% of the time and will likely draw the D.J. Reed matchup. Reed is coming off a week where he allowed four receptions on five targets for 53 receiving yards against the Buffalo Bills. Considering we just haven't seen Waddle with Huntley, him returning from injury and with Tyreek going for a receiving milestone, this doesn't project to be a predictable spot for Waddle.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

 

 

TE Jonnu Smith
Smith was playing so well down the stretch with Tua, catching 43 of his 50 targets in six games, averaging 75.8 receiving yards. But under Huntley, he caught just three of four targets for 26 receiving yards. However, in that stretch of great play, his one down game came against the Jets, where he caught just three of his four targets for 44 receiving yards. The Jets allow the 10th fewest receptions (4.6) and receiving yards (42.6) to opposing TEs. Jonnu made a statement that he felt snubbed by not being named to the Pro Bowl this season. So this would typically be a position to target a player for them to get their revenge. However, Huntley is at QB. He's likely just going to throw the ball to his best option rather than force feed a specific player. Also, Jonnu sees his number drastically fall against man coverage. In games without Tua this season, Smith has gone under 26 receiving yards in three of five games.

Suggested Pick:
Jonnu Smith u35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jets Team Overview

QB Aaron Rodgers
Is this the last dance for Aaron Rodgers? Well, it surely seems like it will be for Rodgers in a Jets uniform. But is this it for Rodgers' career? This could very well be his last game in the NFL, and you know he won't go out without a bang. Has the Rodgers experience in New York been disappointing? Undoubtedly. Was he bad last week against the Bills? Oh yeah. But before that, he wasn't getting enough credit. He had three consecutive games where he threw for 250+ passing yards, topping out at 339. Who was that game where he threw 339 passing yards against? You guessed it, the Dolphins. He threw for that season high with 27 completions on 39 attempts, adding a TD through the air. Which is impressive for the old man considering the Dolphins allow the 17th most completions (21.4), the 14th most pass attempts (33.4) but the eighth fewest passing yards (222.2) to QBs per game. Miami runs the 10th most zone coverage (72.4%) in the league. Rodgers isn't great against zone, averaging the 26th most passing yards per game (152.4) and the 39th highest completion percentage (68.6%). Honestly, given the success against this defence earlier in the season, and how this might be the last dance for Rodgers, I can't in good faith suggest Rodgers will have a bad game.

Suggested Pick:
Aaron Rodgers 225+ Passing Yards (-120)
250+ Passing Yards (+165)

 

RB Breece Hall
You guys think Breece Hall can get 181 rushing yards in this game to cash my o999.5 rushing yards future I bet at the beginning of the season? No? Me neither. Hall has just 187 rushing yards over his previous MONTH of football. It's certainly been a fall from grace from the Jets RB. His yards per carry isn't terrible at 4.2, but he just hasn't seen the guaranteed volume we thought he'd have coming into the season. This weeks matchup will see Hall face off against the Dolphins, who are allowing the 12th fewest rushing yards (84.6) and the 17th most receiving yards (34.2) to RBs per game this season. Hall was not in the lineup in their last meeting. However, Braelon Allen and Isiah Davis only mustered up 83 rushing yards on 21 rush attempts between the two. However, the way they succeeded was through the air. Allen and Davis combined for seven receptions for 65 receiving yards. While Hall has disappointed on the ground, he has been stellar through the air, catching 54 of his 70 targets for 468 receiving yards –– 32 away from 500. Given the Jets success through the air to RBs earlier, and Rodgers wanting to pad those stats if this really is his last game, Hall through the air might be the target. Breece lines up in the backfield 64% of the time. The Dolphins allow the 11th most receiving yards to backfield receivers, but the single-lowest catch rate. Hall has recorded 20+ receiving yards in six of his last 10 games, averaging 32 receiving yards per game.

Suggested Pick:
Breece Hall o18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

 

WR Davante Adams
If this is the last hoorah for Rodgers, his favourite target of all time should likely have a big game as they sail into the sunset. Adams has been peppered with targets over the past five weeks, earning double digit targets in four of those games, only missing last week in a game where the starters got pulled due to a blowout. In those games, Adams averaged 97.6 yards per game, topping over 100 twice. One of these games included a game against the Dolphins where he finished with nine receptions on 10 targets for 109 receiving yards. This was an impressive performance considering Miami allows the 14th fewest receptions (11.5) and the fourth fewest receiving yards (131.2). With Miami running the 10th most zone coverage, this might not be the greatest matchup for Adams, as only his catch rate improves in the coverage. Adams runs 42% of his routes in the slot and will likely draw the Kader Kohou matchup. Kohou played a season high 71 snaps last week, was targeted nine times, allowing five receptions and 41 receiving yards. Adams should continue to be peppered with targets in what might be Rodgers' last game in the NFL, against a new starting CB. Adams has logged six receptions in six of his last eight games.

Suggested Pick:
Davante Adams o5.5 Receptions (-140)

 

 

WR Garrett Wilson
Despite the increase in targets to Adams, Wilson has still been able to get his, yardage wise. He has logged three straight games with 50+ receiving yards, despite seeing just 21 targets – a dip in his usual target share. Wilson is the one who sees the highest target share in zone coverage, but by a small margin. Other than that, he is pretty well the same receiver against both coverages. Wilson lines up on the left 60% of the time and is projected to draw the Jalen Ramsey matchup. Ramsey has been his usual self, dominating as a shutdown corner. He's allowed just four receptions over his previous three games. However, the game before that, was against this Jets team, where he allowed six receptions on eight targets for 146 receiving yards. If this is a projected matchup, and Ramsey struggled that much last time, why couldn't Wilson pop off yet again in the same matchup? He caught seven of 10 targets for 114 receiving yards last game.

Suggested Pick:
Garrett Wilson o54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

 

 

TE Tyler Conklin
After weeks of getting fizzled out of this offence, Conklin finally re-emrged last week when he caught all eight of his targets for 57 receiving yards. Now, most of that game in garbage time when the backups were in, but maybe that's the kick start he needs to finish the season strong. TEs get targeted against the Dolphins at the second highest rate in the NFL, allowing the sixth most receptions (5.8) and 10th most receiving yards (56.8) per game. Conklin sees the biggest jump in target share when switching from man to zone coverage, also seeing his catch rate, yards per reception, yards after catch per reception and yards per route run increase in zone. Conklin has caught three receptions in four straight games, averaging five per game.

Suggested Pick:
Tyler Conklin o2.5 Receptions (-115)

Game Prediction

Even at the prime age of 41, Aaron Rodgers is still the better QB than Tyler Huntley, and that's not too outlandish to say. Rodgers nearly beat Tua and the Dolphins when they played in Week 14. If this is it for Rodgers, what better way to leave your stamp than eliminating a division rival with a win in Week 18? And of course, it's the Jets and they always seem to win games late in the season and ruin their draft pick.

Pick - Jets -1
Lean - Under 38.5|

Jets 23 - Dolphins 10

1st/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD

Davante Adams TD (+137)
I'm just really diving into that Rodgers peppering Adams narrative because it might be his last game. But also, Adams has found the end zone in four of the last five games, totalling five TDs. Miami is allowing a TD to opposing WRs at the lowest rate in the league, but that didn't stop Adams from scoring a few weeks ago against them.

 

Tyreek Hill TD (+175)
Look, I don't know who to pick for the Dolphins side. They only scored two TDs last week. So, I'm just going to go with the player having to play for a milestone. Huntley did manage to throw a passing TD, so it's not out of the question he finds the end zone through the air again. The Jets allow the second lowest TD rate to opposing WRs.

First TD

Tyler Huntley First TD (+1200)
A random little nugget I found. In the two games that Huntley has started for the Dolphins this season, he has actually scored the first TD in both games. If he can't find anything in the end zone, he's always a threat to use his legs in the red zone.

Same Game Parlay Builders

Parlay 1: +110 odds on bet365

Tyler Huntley 20+ Rushing Yards

Tyreek Hill 40+ Receiving Yards

 

 

Parlay 2: +140 odds on bet365

Aaron Rodgers 200+ Passing Yards

Davante Adams 5+ Receptions

Garrett Wilson 50+ Receiving Yards

 

 

Parlay 3: +1400 odds on bet365

New York Jets Moneyline

Breece Hall 30+ Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill 60+ Receiving Yards


Vikings Team Overview

QB Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold continued his strong play on Sunday, throwing for a career-high 377 yards against Green Bay, along with 3 touchdown passes. This marked his 12th game of the season with multiple touchdown passes, a feat only surpassed by Joe Burrow. Darnold’s accuracy was evident as he completed 81.5% of his passes (22-of-27) for 9.6 yards per attempt in their Week 7 matchup against Detroit, although he threw just one touchdown pass in that game, an outlier given his recent form. Looking ahead to Week 18, Darnold faces a Detroit defense that has been struggling to contain passing attacks in recent weeks. Over their past five games, the Lions have allowed a league-high 9.1 yards per attempt and a 6.4% touchdown rate, ranking 28th in that category. In addition to issues in the passing game, Detroit has also struggled to contain quarterbacks in the running game, ranking 29th in rushing yardage allowed to quarterbacks. While rushing isn't a major part of Darnold’s game, he added 39 rushing yards in the previous matchup against Detroit, highlighting his ability to contribute in that area when necessary. I expect a shootout here, and Darnold is going to have to throw often to keep up with this high octane Lions offense.

 

Suggested Play

‘O’ 34.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

 

 

RB Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones, the Vikings' star running back, was limited in practice this week after suffering a quad contusion during the second half of Minnesota's Week 17 victory over the Green Bay Packers. Despite the injury, it is not considered serious, and there is optimism that Jones will be able to suit up for the crucial Week 18 matchup against the Detroit Lions. This game is pivotal, as it will determine the NFC North champions and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC for the postseason. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has indicated that Jones should be ready to play, and he was able to participate in a limited session on Wednesday. As long as there are no setbacks in his recovery, Jones is expected to play his usual role as Minnesota's primary ball carrier. In the first meeting against Detroit, he rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, showing that he can be effective against the Lions' defense. While Jones' injury status may lead to some uncertainty, he is anticipated to be a key part of the Vikings' offense in this high-stakes game, it is just hard to say how much against a Lions’ run defense that still does allow 4.4 YPC to RBs on the season.


Suggested Play

Pass

 

 

WR Justin Jefferson

In what promises to be a high-scoring clash between Minnesota and Detroit, Justin Jefferson stands out as a key player with a favorable matchup. Despite the historically gritty nature of NFC North games, this contest has all the makings of a shootout, and Jefferson is in a prime position to capitalize. Jefferson thrives against Man defense, which plays to his advantage in this matchup. Detroit employs Man coverage at a high rate, covering 43.2% of opponent dropbacks. While his teammate, Jordan Addison, has struggled more against Man (posting -0.15 EPA per target), Jefferson excels. He generates a 27.2% target per route run (TPRR) rate against Man coverage, compared to 25.8% against Zone. His yards per route run (YPRR) also jumps significantly to 3.3 against Man, up from 2.7 against Zone. His efficiency remains high, with a steady EPA (0.43) versus both Man and Zone, but his touchdown rate is significantly better against Man, with a 23.8% TD rate compared to just 3.2% against Zone. Given Jefferson’s prowess against Man coverage and Detroit's reliance on it, he should be a major focal point in this potential shootout, making him a top target for big plays and scoring opportunities.

 

Suggested Plays

‘O’ 0.5 TDs (-120)

 

 

WR Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison has firmly established himself as a top target in the Vikings' offense. He ranks sixth among receivers with at least 75 targets in production over expectation (+28.9%), signaling his consistent ability to outperform expectations. Despite some early concerns in his rookie year, Addison has proven he is not just a product of a high touchdown rate, like some of his peers, and has emerged as a reliable and effective weapon in the passing game. In Week 7's matchup with Detroit, Addison posted 66 yards on three catches. While the Lions’ defense is a top-10 unit in terms of deep ball defense, which could limit some of Addison's opportunities for explosive plays, he is a player who can take advantage of key moments, especially with his red-zone usage. Addison has had 12 red-zone touches over his past six games, which could translate to significant opportunities in a high-stakes, high-scoring game like this one.

 

Suggested Play

‘U’ 24.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

 

 

TE TJ Hockenson
Since returning in Week 9, TJ Hockenson has yet to score a touchdown, but he has posted favorable splits that could aid his performance in Week 18. He has been targeted on 34.6% of his routes when facing man coverage, compared to just 20.1% against zone coverage, which highlights his ability to succeed in certain matchups. Detroit’s defense could play a role in his potential success, especially considering the absence of Alex Anzalone, whose status for Week 18 remains uncertain. The Lions have struggled against tight ends without Anzalone in the lineup. Over this stretch, they have allowed 8.8 yards per target to tight ends, ranking 29th in the league in that category. This creates an opportunity for Hockenson to capitalize on Detroit’s defensive vulnerability. I like Hockenson’s chances without Anzalone for a big night receiving and even a chance to break his TD drought.

Suggested Play

‘O’ 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+180)

Lions Team Overview

QB Jared Goff
Jared Goff has been on a strong run heading into the Lions' matchup with the Vikings. He has been remarkably efficient, throwing for 1,133 yards, 11 touchdowns, and zero interceptions over his last three games. Goff has proven to be a key leader for the Lions' offense, particularly with his performances against tough opponents like the Buffalo Bills in Week 15. This week, Goff faces a Vikings defense that has struggled against the pass. Minnesota has allowed over 300 passing yards to five quarterbacks this season and has given up at least one passing touchdown to 12 quarterbacks. They've also allowed six players to throw for multiple touchdowns and have been vulnerable to big passing plays. Despite Minnesota's defensive challenges, Goff’s ability to execute under pressure makes him a good look to continue his hot streak. As the leader of a high-powered Lions offense, Goff will look to take advantage of Minnesota's defensive lapses, particularly through the air, as he tries to keep the momentum rolling in a key game with the NFC 1 seed on the line in Detroit.

Suggested Play

‘O’ 271.5 Pass Yards (-110)

 

 

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs has been impressive in his recent performances, racking up 154 and 163 yards in the past two weeks, both coming without David Montgomery. Over those games, Gibbs has seen increased involvement, handling 27 and 22 touches, marking two of his highest touch totals of the season. While his production has been strong, there was a small concern during Monday night's game regarding his usage near the goal line. Gibbs only played 4 out of 9 snaps inside the 10-yard line, with Detroit opting for Jermar Jefferson in those situations. It remains to be seen if this trend continues, especially since Gibbs has not shown issues near the goal line earlier in his career. Minnesota presents a challenging matchup on paper, allowing just 4.0 yards per carry (5th) and 10.3 rushing yards per game (6th) to opposing backfields. However, they have been vulnerable to strong running games, as evidenced by their performance against other teams. In their most recent game, they allowed 98 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to Green Bay’s backfield. In Week 14, they gave up 155 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns to Atlanta. Additionally, when these teams met in Week 7, Gibbs had a notable performance, accumulating 160 total yards on 19 touches. I see this as a better matchup for the Lions’ passing attack, so while it is not a bad look for Gibbs, he does not really stand out here.

Suggested Play

Pass

 

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown enters a critical Week 18 matchup against Minnesota with strong potential to deliver another solid performance. In their previous meeting in Week 7, St. Brown posted 8 receptions for 112 yards and 1 touchdown, showing his ability to thrive against the Vikings’ defense. Minnesota allows the fifth-most receiving yards per game (89.5) to receivers aligned in the slot, which plays right into St. Brown’s strengths as a primary slot target for the Lions. The Vikings’ defense deploys the highest rate of two-high safeties (63.8%), a look St. Brown has been successful against, averaging 2.47 yards per route run (YPRR) and a solid 0.32 target per route run (TPRR) against such coverage. With the Vikings’ focus on maintaining deep coverage with two-high safeties, St. Brown’s ability to find openings in the intermediate and short areas of the field gives him the opportunity to continue his high level of production in this matchup.

 

Suggested Play

‘O’ 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

 

WR Jameson Williams

In the Week 18 matchup between Minnesota and Detroit, which is crucial for both teams in the race for the NFC North and the #1 seed, Jameson Williams finds himself in an intriguing position. The game total is set at a high 56 points, indicating potential for an explosive offensive performance. Williams sees a slight expected boost in coverage (+1.7%), which is less than Sam LaPorta’s +3.2%, but better than Amon-Ra St. Brown’s -2.1%. While Williams made a significant impact last week with reverses and pop passes resulting in two touchdowns, Detroit may need to throw the ball more often against Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense, which operates at a 38% blitz rate and a 25.7% pressure rate. Minnesota’s defense plays predominantly Zone coverage (61.4%), with much less reliance on Man coverage (20.9%). This is favorable for Williams, as he has excelled against Zone, averaging 2.6 yards per route run and a 20.8% target per route run rate. His TD rate against Zone is 14.3%, compared to a lack of touchdowns against Man coverage this season. Given the high-scoring expectations for the game and Williams' favorable matchups, he seems poised to continue his strong play.

 

Suggested Play

‘O’ 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

 

 

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta's role within the Lions' offense has solidified as a reliable option, and his involvement has only increased as the season has progressed. While the early part of the season saw some slow moments, particularly in Week 7 against the Vikings where he only caught one pass, his performance has significantly improved since then. In the following weeks, LaPorta's involvement surged, including a solid outing against the Titans where he caught six passes for 48 yards and a touchdown. His target share has increased as the season went on, reflecting his growing connection with Jared Goff and his continued development as a key piece in the offense. While LaPorta may not be the standout receiver in the group, his role is crucial, especially as the Lions fight for the NFC’s top seed. While Goff looks to Amon-Ra and Jameson for the big play, I like LaPorta to get some looks in the red zone and on a down-to-down basis.


Suggested Play

‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-119)

‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+175)

Game Prediction

An incredible game could be in store for us to wind down the 2024-2025 regular season with 2 heavyweights in the NFC playing for the conference itself, with the winner taking the NFC and the bye and the loser having to play on the road as a 5 seed next week. Last year, we saw the difference this game can make as the Dolphins lost a game in a similar spot to the Bills, and then had to go on the road to play in Kansas City. I expect a shootout here, as both defenses have struggled to stop the pass at points this year, although the Lions have improved from a year ago. This Lions improvement is the difference here, as well as the experience of Goff in playoff or playoff caliber games from a year ago in comparison to the breakout season by Darnold.

Best Bets: Lions -2.5 -125
Lean: Over 55.5 -129

Lions 30 Vikings 27

 

1st/Anytime TD Picks

Anytime TD Scorer 


(Vikings) TJ Hockenson +180

The Lions have struggled against tight ends without Anzalone in the lineup. Over this stretch, they have allowed 8.8 yards per target to tight ends, ranking 29th in the league in that category. This creates an opportunity for Hockenson to capitalize on Detroit’s defensive vulnerability. I like Hockenson’s chances without Anzalone for a big night receiving and even a chance to break his TD drought.

 

(Vikings) Justin Jefferson -120

Jefferson’s touchdown rate is significantly better against Man, with a 23.8% TD rate compared to just 3.2% against Zone. Given Jefferson’s prowess against Man coverage and Detroit's reliance on it, he should be a major focal point in this potential shootout, making him a top target for big plays and scoring opportunities.

First TD

 

(Lions) Jahmyr Gibbs +375

Getting great value here on Gibbs considering Gibbs only has 2 1Q TDs all year. Much of this is because Dan Campbell would typically opt to go Montgomery heavy on the first drive, but with Montgomery out this opens the door for Gibbs to take his carries. He did not get many carries inside the 5 last week, but for Gibbs he just needs the ball to have a chance with his explosiveness, whether it be through the ground or the air.

 

Same Game Parlay's

Parlay 1 +485

Sam Darnold ‘O’ 280.5 Pass Yards

Jared Goff ‘O’ 271.5 Pass Yards

Justin Jefferson ‘O’ 92.5 Receiving Yards

Amon-Ra St. Brown ‘O’ 71.5 Receiving Yards

 


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