QB Jordan Love

Despite some moments of carelessness with the football from Love this season in comparison to his first year as an NFL starter, Love has been very effective for the most part for a Packers team that has been red hot as of late, winning 3 straight games and the previous 2 coming in blowout fashion. Love has a YPA of 8.18, which ranks 7th in the NFL among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks. The Lions bring in a tough pass defense that allows only 6.72 YPA, which is the 8th fewest in the NFL. They also are interesting in that they line up in man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL and by a long shot, at 44.9% of their snaps. This is not great news for Love, who has struggled significantly more against man, with only a 49.3% completion rate against it as well as only 5.59 YPA, ranking 35th out of 41 eligible QBs. Despite that, Love has been vastly improved as of late and I expect him to have to throw often in a game where the Packers rush offense will likely be keyed on by a tough Lions rush defense. In the past 3 games Love had a dropback rate of 46.5%, 37.3%, and 52.8%, but those games were marred by much worse matchups for throwing the ball and had positive game scripts. The Lions high-octane offense as well as their pass funnel defense should force Love to throw to keep up.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 32.5 Pass Attempts (-135)

RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs had a rough game on the ground last week vs the Dolphins, although the Dolphins rush defense has been extremely tough as of late. He had 19 carries and 43 yards in that matchup, although he did have an impressive 74 receiving yards last week and still made his presence felt. The Lions rush defense has been solid, with a 46.3% stuff rate that ranks 11th best in the NFL, and a 3.96 YPC allowed to RBs that ranks although there has been a decline in performance since the injury to Aidan Hutchinson. Despite that, teams just aren’t running the ball often against the Lions, which is partially due to negative game scripts against them. To me this is a similar matchup to the one that Jacobs just saw against the Dolphins, with the only difference being that the passing conditions will be much better than they were in Lambeau as well as the fact that the Packers may not be as fortunate in terms of game script to get Jacobs to around 19 carries again.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 69.5 Rush Yards (-110)

WR Jayden Reed

The Packers clearly have a lot of faith going forward in their young WR Jayden Reed, who has all the physical tools needed to be a dominant WR1 in this league. Their faith in him looks to be paying off as Reed is in the middle of an excellent season. He leads the team with 2.60 yards per route run, and also with 693 total yards on the year. Romeo Doubs was out last week vs Miami and his status could directly impact the action that Reed has, as Reed only has 16.7% target share with Doubs on the field in comparison to his 21.7% last week without him. Still, the matchup that presents itself here should be too good to pass on regardless of the status of Doubs in this game, who I do expect to play. Reed runs 78.7% of his routes from the slot, which is the area that the Lions pass defense has struggled the most in defending. The Lions give up 8.19 YPA to targets in the slot, which is 11th most in the NFL and far worse than their output to the wide alignment. They also allow 7.1 total receptions to slot receivers per game, which is the most in the NFL. Earlier this year in their first meeting, this looked to hold true in a rainy Lambeau Field in which Reed had 113 receiving yards on 5 receptions. I expect this to be the mismatch that Love looks to exploit in this game, particularly with the return of Carlton Davis to the Lions secondary forcing Reed to the slot even more frequently.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-146)

WR Romeo Doubs

All indications are that Doubs is a go for Thursday night after being in concussion protocol over the last two weeks. This would be good news for the Packers, as Doubs is their second leading WR with 483 total yards on the year and a 1.94 YPRR. Unlike Reed who lines up at the slot most frequently, Doubs is typically lined up wide. Doubs is out wide on 86.7% of his snaps, which is the most on the Packers. The Lions are much better in defending the outside with rookie CB Terrion Arnold as well as Carlton Davis putting together good years on the boundary. Against man coverage, Doubs’ YPRR falls to 1.78, and he also has seen a target share of just 15.6%, which is behind 3 other Packers WRs. Another factor here is assuming Doubs does play, it is not uncommon for players to see a reduced workload after a week off, especially considering that Doubs was batting with a concussion.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Tucker Kraft

Kraft is coming off a huge game on Thanksgiving night at home vs the Dolphins, tallying 6 receptions for 78 receiving yards. However, Kraft has been a common solution for Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur this year when the Packers are down at least one WR. With Doubs in specific, Kraft has a 21.3 target share with him on the field in comparison to just 13.6% without Doubs. Detroit’s defense has been excellent against TEs, whereas the Dolphins defense really struggled against it. The Lions allow 5.6 yards per target to the TE position, which is the lowest in the NFL. Kraft does have a high target share of 25.5% in the red zone, which could be an area to target for Kraft, but overall, this would not appear to be a great matchup for the tight end especially with Doubs likely making his return.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-110)
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+230)

QB Jared Goff

Goff has had an incredible season as we head into December. Goff is the league’s leader in YPA at 8.80, and also ranks 2nd in completion % at 71.8%, and most importantly has the Lions cemented as a slight Vegas Super Bowl favorite. The Packers defense has been middle of the road in allowing 7.28 YPA defensively (15th in NFL), but is coming off a dominant performance in recent weeks, and held Tua Tagovailoa to just 3.7 air yards per attempt last week. The Packers defense will be in zone the majority of their snaps, with a 75.6 zone% being the 4th highest rate in the NFL. Goff has an even higher completion percentage against zone at 73.1%, as well as a 8.48 YPA against zone coverage. While there is nothing to really suggest anything other than an efficient output from Goff, the lines on his props are fairly high. With the Lions favored, there is a decent chance they will play with the lead, which is when they typically rely on their 2-headed monster at RB with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Goff has not thrown the ball as much as he has last year either, and his attempts line is only at 30.5 in this one. It just overall is uncertain the extent the Lions will use the passing game to attack Green Bay when they have been so versatile offensively.

Suggested Play:
Pass

RB Jahmyr Gibbs / RB David Montgomery

Both Gibbs and Montgomery have had insanely successful seasons this year, and have somehow pulled off the difficult feat of being able to put up big numbers in the same games while sharing the rock with the other back. Gibbs has a 5.97 YPC, which is the 2nd highest in the NFL, although this is primarily due to his explosiveness rather than consistency (11.7% explosive rate is by far the highest in the NFL). The Packers defense has been prone to explosive runs this season, with a 5.9% explosive run rate allowed defensively that is the 9th highest in the NFL. So despite a lower rush share last week due to getting to Dan Campbell’s dog house with a fumble, I expect this to be a Gibbs game. One area where I do think David Montgomery is being disrespected in the betting market, however, is in the receiving game. Montgomery has seen 3 receptions in 4 out of the last 5 games and has seen his role as a pass catcher grow exponentially. This Packers defense has been hurt by RBs in the passing game all year, giving up 39.5 receiving yards per game, which ranks as the 5th highest in the NFL.

Suggested Play:
Montgomery ‘O’ 13.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
Gibbs ‘O’ 16.5 Longest Rush (-120)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Despite an overall solid year from Amon-Ra St. Brown, it is also true that his nearly 69 yards averaged per game is the lowest he has seen since his rookie year in the league. Due primarily from the emergence of Jameson Williams as a deep threat in this Lions offense, St. Brown is seeing only 4.3% of his targets come from more than 20+ air yards, which is more than half as many as he saw last year with 9.1%. Still, St. Brown is this team’s leading receiver and is a consistent force in this offense, averaging 2.52 YPRR and a 27.4% target share on the year (4th in the NFL). He also leads the team with 9 receiving TDs, and had an 8 game TD streak snapped 2 weeks ago. St. Brown has been slightly better against the zone looks that the Packers will often throw out there on Thursday night, with a 2.63 YPRR as well as an 81.4% catch rate. Because of this in relation to other options on the Lions, I expect Goff to look St. Brown’s way often in this game.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

WR Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams has really found his stride this season and has emerged as the downfield vertical threat for Jared Goff and the Lions. On the year his aDOT is 13.7% which is the highest on the team, and due to his electrifying speed and playmaking ability after the catch he also has averaged 18.5 yards per catch, which is the 5th highest in the NFL. Like many players of this skill set however, he has really thrived against man coverage, which he will not see much of against the Packers, which are in man at just 21.1% of their snaps (8th lowest in the NFL). Jamo has just a 58.1% catch rate against zone coverage, which he will see the most by far in this matchup against the Packers. The Packers also have done a pretty respectable job against deep passes, with only a 10.3 completion % on deep throws, which is the 15th lowest in the NFL. All in all, while this isn’t a horrible matchup for Jamo, it also does not scream anything particular that would favor him.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE Sam LaPorta

Despite an overall disappointing campaign from the 2nd year tight end this year after a massive rookie year (targeted only 16.8% of routes this year compared to 23.7% last year), there has been one area where LaPorta has really thrived in and that is the red zone. That was put on full display last week as 2 of his 3 catches were near the goal line for TDs on just 6 total yards. He has 9 red zone targets on the year, which is 10th in the NFL among TEs, and also has 6 receptions. Looking at the Packers defensively, they have given up 6 receptions per game on average to TEs, which is the 5th most in the NFL. This appears to be another ideal spot for Goff to find LaPorta in the end zone when the team finds itself in scoring range.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+250)

Both of these offenses are clicking right now, and I expect this game to be a blast to watch on a Thursday night. Jordan Love has had a lot of highs and lows in his meetings with the Lions thus far in his career, but I do expect a good performance from him on the back of doing a better job protecting the ball, as well his chemistry with Jayden Reed who I think could feast here. On the otherside however, I do not think that the Packers defense is powerful enough to stop the machine of the Lions offense, which I think ultimately is the difference maker.

Best Bet: Packers +3.5 -120
Lean: Over 50.5 -132
Lions 24 Packers 27

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (Lions) David Montgomery -145 

Despite being a part of the most dynamic 2 RB system in the NFL alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery has been the guy who has been the most involved in the red zone and inside the 5 yard line. He has received 57% of the team’s carries in the red zone, and 52% inside the 5 yard line. Over the last 5 games, he is averaging 4.6 red zone rush attempts per game, and had a season high 7 rush attempts in the red zone in their previous meeting with the Packers. He has scored a TD in 9 games this year and in 11 total. With a high total set for this game the Lions surely will have several scoring opportunities and chances to feed Monty close to the end zone.

Longshot: (Lions) Sam Laporta +250
Despite an overall disappointing year from Laporta after a massive rookie year (targeted only 16.8% of routes this year compared to 23.7% last year), there has been one area where LaPorta has really thrived in and that is the red zone. That was put on full display last week as 2 of his 3 catches were near the goal line for TDs on just 6 total yards. He has 9 red zone targets on the year, which is 10th in the NFL among TEs, and also has 6 receptions. Looking at the Packers defensively, they have given up 6 receptions per game on average to TEs, which is the 5th most in the NFL. This appears to be another ideal spot for Goff to find LaPorta in the end zone when the team finds itself in scoring range.

First TD Scorer:

(Lions): David Montgomery +425

Out of Montgomery’s 11 TDs on the year, 5 have come in the first quarter. There is a bit of a hidden advantage here to a Lions player as well, considering Dan Campbell will sometimes (although not all the time) elect to receive the ball first while LaFleur will often defer, leading to a higher chance that the Lions will receive the ball first. Teams have been running the ball often against the Packers in the red zone as of late, with the Bears scoring both of their TDs on the ground a couple of weeks ago, and with the Packers averaging 1.9 rushing TDs against in road games this year.

(Packers) Jayden Reed +1100

The Lions have really struggled against slot WRs, giving up 8.19 YPA to targets in the slot, which is 11th most in the NFL and much worse than their defense of boundary WRs where they have had more success. They allow 7.1 total receptions to slot receivers per game, which is the most in the NFL. Jordan Love has gone to Reed early in many games this season, and actually has the game’s first TD in 2 out of the last 3 games, including last week vs the Dolphins.

Parlay #1 (+322)
Jayden Reed 4+ Rec 
Jayden Reed 50+ Rec yds 
David  Montgomery 'O' 15.5 Rec Yds
Amon Ra St Brown 50+ Rec Yds

Parlay #2 (+993)
Jayden Reed 80+ Rec Yds
Lions ML 
Amon Ra St Brown 60+ Rec yds 
Amon Ra St Brown 1+ TD 

Parlay #3 MEGA LOTTO (+4439)
Jayden Reed 'U' 4.5 Receptions 
Jayden reed 50+ Rec yds
Jayden Reed 1+ TD
David Montgomery 3+ Receptions
Lions ML 

QB Jameis Winston

Fans got to immerse themselves in the complexities of the Jameis Winston experience in full force last Monday night. He threw for nearly 500 yards and 4 TD passes in a high scoring loss, but also 3 interceptions, with 2 of them being a pick-six. Jameis will need to find some semblance of consistency in avoiding the turnovers while still making the game changing plays he is capable of this week vs. the Steelers. The Browns have leaned on Jameis since the injury to Deshaun Watson, as he has a 68.3% dropback rate on offensive snaps in his starts this year. Against the Steelers, Jameis will see 1-high safety often, with Pittsburgh lining up with 1-high safety on 70.8% of defensive snaps this year, which is the most in the NFL. Against 1-high safety, Jameis has fared well, and is averaging 7.92 YPA, which ranks 13th out of 45 QBs with at least 25 dropbacks. The Steelers also have a pressure rate of 29.6% which ranks only 21 out of 32 teams. This is welcome news for Jameis who played well against the Steelers last time out much as a result of this, and due to the fact that much of Jameis’ struggles have come against pressure, as his completion % is only 44.4 against it (25th in NFL), and has thrown the majority of his INTs against it as well.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 249.5 Pass Yards (-120)

RB Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb’s return from his devastating injury last season against Pittsburgh has not exactly gone as planned this season. Chubb ranks as the 2nd lowest YPC in the NFL among RBs with at least 50 rush attempts at just 3.0 YPC. He was, however, slightly more efficient against a strong Denver rush defense on Monday night, averaging 4.1 YPC although on limited volume with only 11 attempts. He also has lacked the explosion he has had early in his career, going for 10 or more yards on just 4.9% of his carries, which is the 3rd lowest in the league. Against the Steelers, it is tough to imagine a whole changing in that department, with the Steelers having an explosive rush rate allowed at only a 3.4% explosive run rate allowed, which is the 6th lowest in the NFL. Chubb may be used in short yardage situations effectively in this game, but with a losing game script potentially facing the Browns as well as his lack of explosiveness, we will go ahead and fade Chubb.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 40.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy is coming off an insane revenge game performance against his former team in Denver with 235 receiving yards out of Jameis’ nearly 500 yards through the air. Winston has absolutely fed him since he came the starter, and Jeudy has at least 73 yards in each of his starts. I expect the Browns to again look towards him to carry the load in this matchup as well, as Jeudy leads the team with a 1.75 YPRR against 2-high safety looks (which the Steelers lead the league in). Jeudy has a high aDOT of 13.1, and this obviously is valuable to know given he has played with several QBs this year, but with none quite being the gunslinger that Jameis Winston is. The Steelers are also above average in terms of defensive aDOT against, so this should be fine for Jameis to do what he loves to do best and stretch defenses. The status of Cedric Tillman is questionable, but even if he does play I am not sure he can overtake the chemistry Winston and Jeudy have built, which is exemplified by the fact that only 5.7 % of Jameis’ targets to Jeudy have been deemed as inaccurate.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-125)

WR Elijah Moore

Moore has not run a route at nearly the same level as Jerry Jeudy (Moore is at 74.3 route% in comparison to 87.3% from Jeudy), but he has been looked at often with Winston as the QB and when Moore is on the field, getting a target on 25.1% of his routes. Moore is averaging 1.66 yards per route run without Jameis in comparison to 0.55 without Winston being the QB. Moore has also been incredibly sure-handed on the season, as his 67.6% catch rate is the highest among all WRs on the Packers and is behind only the tight ends such as David Njoku. While I do not expect a potential return of Cedric Tillman to impact Jeudy due to his recent performance, Moore’s route run % is a bit too flimsy to say that a potential return would not impact him, and that is why I am going to pass on taking any of his props in this matchup.

Suggested Play:
Pass

TE David Njoku

Jameis Winston took to the air often in their Monday Night game against the Broncos with over 50 pass attempts. No player saw quite as much action come his way as the TE David Njoku, tallying a career high 17 targets. Unfortunately for Njoku, he was only able to cash in on 9 of those targets and mainly for short yardage, only seeing 3.1 yards per target in that individual game. Njoku also has not been great against 2-high safeties (which the Steelers lead the league in lining up with). He only has a 1.28 YPRR against it, but perhaps even more alarming to me is a 3.8 aDOT against it, which matches his trend of not really being a deep threat. Winston doesn’t check the ball down overly often, but when he does Njoku is a top target of his and against a defensive scheme that will make it tough for TEs to get open deep against. One thing that did stand out to me in their previous meeting however, was the targets he was getting in the red zone, having 2 with one being a dropped TD and another being a successful 2 point conversion attempt. He also had 2 TDs last week against the Broncos, and 4 red zone targets.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 17.5 Longest Reception (-110)
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+250)

QB Russell Wilson

Like Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson is also fresh off a 400 yard game last week against Cincinnati in a shootout win for the Steelers in a game in which the Steelers absolutely aired the ball out, with a 61% pass share that was the highest of the season from the Steelers. I find this interesting considering the success opposing teams have had running the football  Wilson ranks 2nd in the NFL in completion % at 8.7 YPA since he took over the reins from Justin Fields, despite having a mediocre completion % at 65.8, ranking 23rd in the NFL. Wilson has excelled in throwing the deep ball this season, with a 15.0% completion rate (5th highest in the NFL). This is a spot where I can definitely see Wilson exploiting against this Browns defense, which has allowed 17.9% of deep throws to be completed against them, which is by far the highest in the NFL. Wilson did not fully get to display his arm in the first meeting vs the Browns, but that was mainly due to the fact that the game was in a snowstorm in Cleveland. I expect better conditions in this spot for Wilson to complete some deep balls.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 38.5 Longest Pass Completion (-120)

RB Najee Harris

It has been incredibly tough to predict how the Steelers are going to manage their run game personnel on a game-by-game basis this season. It looked last week like Harris would take a step back against the Bengals with a solid matchup on paper for backup RB Jaylen Warren, as well as a diminished rush share the week before against these same Browns, but then Najee was given 22 carries and 63% of the team’s rushes in that game. While things could be trending up for Najee in the RB room again, I do not see the Steelers rush attack trending up in general in this game against a Browns run defense that is allowing 4.2 YPC, which is the 12th lowest in the NFL. They also have a stuff rate of 47.9%, which is the 5th highest in the NFL. As mentioned in the Wilson write-up, there is a pretty solid mismatch in favor of the Steelers downfield and exploiting the Browns secondary, and I anticipate that this is where they will look to take advantage of, and not on the ground.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 62.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR George Pickens

The Steelers are very thin at WR behind George Pickens, but luckily Pickens has had the kind of year where he has been able to entirely carry the load for this Steelers offense, as he has 46.2% of his team’s air yards, which is the 2nd most in the NFL. The Browns are lining up man coverage on 32.2% of opponent dropbacks, which is 7th in the league. With Wilson as the QB,  Pickens has been targeted on 32.3% of his routes against coverage compared to 19.8% against zone coverage. Pickens also has an impressive aDOT of 13.8, the highest on the team. As mentioned earlier the Browns as giving up the most completed deep balls in the league on a percentage basis, and much of this is through the work of Pickens himself. The Browns are allowing an incredible 16.4 yard per catch on the season, which is by far the highest mark in the NFL. Pickens went for just 48 yards 2 weeks ago against the Browns, but with better throwing conditions likely in this one in Pittsburgh and where the Steelers have played better in general, you can fully expect Wilson to be airing it out long to George Pickens.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 28.5 Longest Reception (-110)

TE Pat Freiermuth

Pat had not seen as high of a target share with Wilson as the starter in comparison to Justin Fields and with Kenny Pickett last season, but that changed a bit last week as he saw a high 19.4% of his targets against the Bengals in a shootout. Not only that, but he was only playing on 65.9% of his dropbacks in that matchup, which makes that a pretty impressive share of targets when he was on the field. One thing about Freiermuth is he has been incredibly sure-handed when the ball is thrown his direction, and has a 91.6% catch rate on 45 targets, which is very efficient. Freiermuth has been surging of late somewhat, and this is a solid matchup for him against a Browns defense that is allowing 49.5 receiving yards per game to TEs. I will take a chance on Freiermuth to continue at least a relative amount of success in this matchup considering the lines thrown out there on him just seem flat out disrespectful.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Browns have been a lot more effective offensively since Jameis took over, but wins are the name of the game and he still really has not been able to produce those for the team. With the season all but over for the Browns and with the Steelers competing for a playoff spot and the division, one begins to wonder if the Browns defense will continue to crack as they did last week, and now against a Steelers team that returns home starving for a revenge win after the disappointment in the snow a couple of weeks ago.

Best Bet: Steelers -6.5 -120
Lean: Over 43.5 -110
Steelers 30 Browns 17

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (Steelers) George Pickens +110

The Browns have been picked on in the end zone by WRs all year long, and are averaging 1.3 TDs against per game which is 3rd most in the NFL. Pickens has absolutely gone to work in the red zone, nailing down 44% of the team targets there. He has at least 1 target in the red zone in each of the last 7 games. He also has a TD in 3/6 games that Wilson has started. What is interesting about Pickens is he also has a few outs, including being thrown to near the goal line but also just busting a long catch and run that ends in the end zone.

Longshot (Browns) Jerry Jeudy +250

Jeudy has a TD in 2 of the last 3 games, and is clearly a different WR than he was last season. It seems to me if Jameis throws a TD lately, there is at least a solid chance it is to Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy was the leading WR in the snow 2 weeks back, and should have the necessary confidence to get open against this secondary. Like Pickens, he is a YAC threat that can score in a variety of ways. Definite value on this at +250.

1st TD Scorer Picks

Best Pick: (Steelers) George Pickens +550

Pickens is averaging 8 targets per game over the last 4 weeks, and is really starting to heat up with Russell Wilson at the helm. With Wilson as the QB, he has 2 1st quarter TDs out of 6 games, and his usage both in and out of the red zone appears to only be going up as the team struggles to find any real valuable option behind him in the receiving game. Wilson is known for airing it out early in the game deep, and that is a spot where Pickens could be at the receiving end.

Longshot: (Steelers) Najee Harris +450

Harris is yet to score the game’s first TD on the season, but he has been the weapon of choice for the Steelers offense as of late in the red zone, getting 56% of the team’s rush share in the red zone on a season that includes sharing the ball with Jaylen Warren, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Justin Fields earlier in the year when he was the starter. Najee is a bruiser and it makes too much sense for him to not be fed early in the game to set the tone.

Parlay 1 +395
Najee Harris TD
Jameis Winston ‘O’ 249.5 Pass Yards
George Pickens ‘O’ 71.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay 2 +1235
Russell Wilson ‘O’ 274.5 Pass Yards
Najee Harris ‘U’ 62.5 Rush Yards
George Pickens 1st TD

Parlay 3 +1045
Jameis Winston ‘O’ 299.5 Pass Yards
Jerry Jeudy ‘O’ 4.5 Receptions
Najee Harris 1st TD

QB Kirk Cousins

Cousins is coming off a brutal performance in the loss to the Chargers last week. He threw 4 INTs in that game and also had just 6.3 YPA in that game. In the past three games, he has thrown 0 TD passes as the Falcons find themselves on a 3 game losing streak, with Cousins now facing his former team in Minnesota. Against his former team, he will see a defense that lines up with 2-high safeties at the highest rate of any team in the NFL, at 65.2%. He has not been great against 2-high safeties, throwing 9 TDs and 8 INTs, and has not had much success down field with just a 8.3% deep throw completion rate. The Vikings also blitz at an incredibly heavy rate, with 34% of their zone snaps coming with a blitz, which is by far the highest rate in the NFL. Against zone blitzes, Cousins has really struggled, averaging only 5.7 YPA, which is the 4th lowest in the NFL. This is a drastic difference from his 8.4 YPA not facing a blitz, which is actually 13th out of 32 teams. In the past 2 games against the Broncos and Chargers, he has thrown just 2.8 air yards against the blitz, which indicates that he is not finding his receivers with any sort of confidence at all.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 243.5 Pass Yards (-110)

RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan is fresh off an absolutely mammoth game last week out of the bye week, in which he rushed for 26 carries and 106 rushing yards. In that game, he had 70% of the Falcons rush share, and it fully appears like he is taking the reigns completely of the Falcons ground game from Tyler Allgeier. Unfortunately for Robinson and the Falcons ground game in general, they run into a buzz saw of a defense in the Vikings. Minnesota is allowing just 3.80 yards per carry to opposing RBs, which ranks 4th lowest in the NFL. They also have the 3rd highest stuff rate in the league, at 49.0%, and rarely are giving up explosive runs (explosive run-rate of only 15.6%, which is the 4th fewest in the NFL). The Vikings are also an excellent tackling team, and only give up 2.07 yards after contact per rush attempt. I do see Robinson seeing decent volume in this game simply because I think the struggles for Cousins could be worse, but the efficiency likely will not be there. With those two conflicting factors, this is a pass on Bijan Robinson.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Drake London

London is coming off his most active game of the season last Sunday in the loss to the Chargers, getting 16 targets from Kirk Cousins. He had a solid performance with those targets as well, going for 86 yards and 9 receptions. On the year he has been the most consistent Falcons wide out. He has averaged 2.22 yards per route run, which is the highest on the team, as well as leading the team with 0.29 targets per route run, which is impressive considering Darnell Mooney actually leads the team in routes run (377 total routes from Mooney in comparison to 359 from London). London has been getting more action at the slot this year, running 39% of his routes from there. He has even been more efficient when in the slot as well, seeing a target on 36.8% of his routes from the slot, as well as 2.75 YPRR. This is where I expect him to get a lot of action on Sunday against the Vikings, a team that has struggled against slot receivers in allowing 1084 yards to them on the season, which is the 4th most in the league. I expect London once again to have high volume, plus he was trending that way in the last game as is.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Darnell Mooney

While London has been the most consistent Falcons WR (and a consistent WR in general, really) in terms of yards and production in games when he is on the field, it is actually Mooney who has been on the field the most consistently, with a route run on 87.3% of his dropbacks on the season. Overall, he also has been successful against 2-high safety looks, which the Vikings are in at the highest rate in the NFL. He leads the Falcons with 2.47 YPRR against 2-high safeties, as well as an aDOT of 11.8. What does concern me, however, about Mooney, is that despite the early success, Cousins just isn’t looking his way at the same rate anymore. Over the past 2 games, he has seen just 4 and 6 targets for 27 and 20 total yards. On the surface this is a solid matchup, but given the pressure I expect on Cousins I just don’t have much faith in him to get the ball to Mooney especially considering his target share has taken a dip to just 11% and 15% over the last 2 weeks of games.

Suggested Play
Pass

TE Kyle Pitts

For the most part, Kyle Pitts has had an incredibly disappointing 3rd year in the NFL, and has drastically underperformed his expectations with Cousins. He did have a hot stretch in October in which he had at least 65 yards receiving in 4 straight games, but has cooled down significantly since then. Last week he may have reached a new low, not catching any passes at all and seeing only 2 targets. He also hasn’t had a 2 reception game in 3 out of his last 4 games. To make matters worse, Pitts has really struggled against the 2-high coverages that the Vikings will be in frequently in this game. He has averaged only 0.95 yards per route run against 2 high coverages all season, and has just a 61.5% catch rate as a tight end on a low aDOT of 6.7 yards. This is an obvious fade spot in my opinion on a struggling player, and with a QB in Cousins who I anticipate will struggle as well against the heavy zone blitzes of Minnesota.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Sam Darnold

Despite some levels of regression from his blazing start to the year, Sam Darnold has maintained steady and has had a consistently good season for the Vikings. He actually ranks 6th in the NFL among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks with a YPA of 8.25. On top of that, he has been very accurate, boasting a 67.6 completion %, which ranks 11th in the NFL, and a 76.3% catchable ball rate. Against the Falcons, he is sure to see a lot of zone defense, with the Falcons being in zone coverage on 73.7% of snaps (9th most in NFL). Darnold has not been quite as effective against zone, but still solid, with a 8.15 YPA against it. One thing that the Falcons have struggled with defensively is getting after QBs, as their 27.5% pressure-rate is the second lowest in the NFL. Darnold has been really good with a clean pocket, able to complete 72.3% of his passes and for 8.51 YPA. The issue with Darnold all year long has simply been that the Vikings have been a run-first football team, with a 54.7% pass share that is below league average for passing. Looking at the Falcons, teams have liked to run the ball against them this year (we will get more into that later), and with the Vikings being 5.5 point favorites, I don’t see Darnold clearing a line that he has only three times this season.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 32.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

RB Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones has been excellent this season, with a 4.46 YPC that ranks 22nd out of 57 RBs with at least 50 rush attempts this season. He also has had even more success against zone defense in comparison to man, with a 53.4% success rate against zone concepts this season, which is the 16th out of the 57 RBs. The Falcons defensively have been middle of the road in defending the run, with a 4.37 YPC allowed against them, which ranks 17th in the NFL. They also have struggled with backs in the receiving game often, and Jones is certainly a RB who can make some plays in that area. Against Atlanta, RBs have 24.1% of the receptions allowed against them, which is the second highest percentage allowed in the NFL. Jones had a horrible day out last game vs the Cardinals, only rushing for 22 yards on 5 attempts. However, this was a game in which the Vikings trailed 19-6 in the third quarter despite coming back and winning on the back of Darnold in the passing game. The Falcons in total are giving up 27.6 rush attempts per game, which is the 12th most in the NFL. We should be seeing a different game script, and after the quiet game last week I think we can anticipate Jones being more involved.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 14.5 Rush Attempts (-125)

WR Justin Jefferson

Jefferson is in the middle of another incredible season with the Vikings, and his 1038 receiving yards 2nd in the NFL, behind only his former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase. He has dominated the Vikings WR corps, earning 27.4% of the team’s target share, and brings in an incredibly impressive 2.70 yards per route run, and also is averaging 4.69 YAC per reception, and is seeing 38.0% of the team’s air yards. The Falcons defensively on passing plays have been in Cover 3 on 38.5% of snaps. This is the 6th highest rate in the NFL. Jefferson has been excellent against Cover 3, earning 31.6% of targets against the coverage, has an average of 3.25 yards per route run, and has 361 total yards out of his 1038. The Vikings played the Colts earlier this season, which are another high Cover 3 team, and Jefferson absolutely went off in that game as he had 137 receiving yards in that game. This is a similar matchup and I anticipate the Vikings to exploit the advantage that one of the best at his position in the game can bring.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 84.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Jordan Addison

Jordan Addison is in the middle of his best stretch of the year, gathering in at least 54 receiving yards in all 3 of the last 3 games. In the 2 games prior to last week against the Cardinals, Addison had a 24% target share the 2 weeks before, but just 17% target share last week in the Vikings comeback effort. Addison has been solid against Cover 3 like Jefferson, and averages 2.52 YPRR against it. However the problem I see with Addison in this matchup is simply the fact that Jefferson has already dominated the target share against that coverage, and combined with the fact Addison may be seeing a dip back in his own target share. This also in general could be a game where the Vikings rely more on the ground game late, and I see Addison’s opportunities to make plays to be a bit limited in what is a good, but not great matchup for his skillset.

Suggested Play
Pass

TE TJ Hockenson

After running a route on 84.2% of his dropbacks against the Bears in Week 12, this fell to just 69.1% last week against the Cardinals. What has been tough about Hockenson is his usage has varied drastically from a game by game basis, going for 4, 9, 3, 9, and 6 targets in his first five games back this year after coming back from injury. He has been quite good against Cover 3, which the Falcons are in defensively at a high rate. Hockenson has a 1.95 yards per route run against Cover 3 this year, which is impressive considering he is a tight end with a 7.8 aDOT, as well as 72 yards against it in just 5 games played. One thing that stands out to me is the fact that Darnold did target Hockenson twice in the red zone last week, and did collect 5 TDs last year. The Falcons have allowed 0.4 TDs to TEs per game this year, which is the 12th most in the NFL, so this is a good spot for Hockenson to find the end zone given these odds.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+250)

It would be easy to fall into the “revenge game” narrative in this spot with Cousins returning to play his old team. But with that in mind this Falcons team is heading in the absolute worst direction right now and going on the road into a hostile environment. I also highly doubt the Falcons ability to move the ball consistently, with no real advantage for either their run game or pass game with a QB who struggles mightily against blitzes. Look for the Minnesota defense to take over this game and for their offense to do enough on the back of their run game as well.

Best Pick: Vikings -6.5 -125
Lean: Under 47.5 -130 
Vkings 24 Falcons 14

Anytime TD Picks

(Falcons) Bijan Robinson (-105)
Despite the Vikings success in stopping the run this year, one  potential area of success I could see to neutralize this is with Bijan Robinson in the passing game, using screens to catch an over aggressive defense. His rush share is improving, which means he also will continue to take goal line snaps, and add that to the fact that he has seen at least 6 targets in 3 out of the last 5 games.

(Vikings) TJ Hockenson (+250)
One thing that stands out to me about TJ Hockenson is the fact that Darnold did target Hockenson twice in the red zone last week, and did collect 5 TDs last year. The Falcons have allowed 0.4 TDs to TEs per game this year, which is the 12th most in the NFL, so this is a good spot for Hockenson to find the end zone given these odds which seem valuable sitting at +250.

First TD Picks

(Falcons) Darnell Mooney (+1300)
While I don’t expect a great outing from Kirk Cousins in this matchup with the Falcons, his performance will be necessary for any chance at a Falcons upset win.  Darnell Mooney is one of his leading WRs, and has 731 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Cousins has an insanely strong arm, and Mooney is a guy who is often used as a deep threat and could see the Falcons looking to come in and silence the Minnesota crowd with an early bomb.

(Vikings) Aaron Jones (+250)
I mentioned in his write up that I expect a lot of work for Aaron Jones in this matchup. He has been more active in the red zone as of late, scoring in 2 consecutive games. 2 weeks ago against Chicago, the Vikings actually fed Jones 9 times in the red zone. If they march down the field on an opening drive, given the volume I expect from Jones he could easily be the finisher of a drive.

Parlay #1 +445
Sam Darnold U 32.5 Pass Attempts
Aaron Jones O 14.5 Rush Attempts
Bijan Robinson ATD

Parlay #2 +790
Aaron Jones 1st TD
Cousins U 242.5 Receiving Yards
Pitts U 32.5 Receiving Yards

QB Aidon O'Connell

O'Connell absolutely ripped up the Chiefs defence last week, finishing 22/35 passing for 340 yards, two passing TDs and zero interceptions. However, despite outplaying Mahomes, the Raiders fumbled the snap on the game-winning drive and lost the game. It was encouraging to see that O'Connell isn't going to completely sink his team, and he will be able to lead this offence to competitive games. O'Connell's task this week is against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who allow the most completions (25.4), second most pass attempts (37.7), the third most passing yards (275.7) and fifth most passing TDs (1.75) per game this season. Tampa Bay run the most zone coverage in the league (80.2%), which, isn't great for O'Connell. Among QBs to appear in 4+ games this season, O'Connell ranks as the 36th highest completion percentage (64.8%) against zone, but the seventh highest completion percentage against man (62.5%). Despite allowing a lot of yards and volume to QBs, the Buccaneers rank in the middle of the pack in terms of yards per attempt, indicating that it's the short area of the field where they've struggled to defend. And that reflects in their aDoT ranking with the 12th lowest aDoT (7.6). If O'Connell can tear up the Chiefs defence last week, he should be able to do the same in this matchup against the poor Buccaneers defence. In the two games where he started and finished this season, O'Connell has throw for 225+ passing yards.

Suggested Pick:
Aidan O'Connell 225+ Passing Yards (-155)

RB Alexander Mattison

Make that two straight weeks for Mattison sitting out due to injury. However, this week, he logged multiple practice sessions, so while he still carries a questionable tag for this game, we fully expect him to make his return. While he hasn't been outstanding this season, he's done enough to grab the starting job from Zamir White. Mattison ranks 42nd in rushing yards this season (320) with three rushing TDs. And it's not even like his numbers are low due to a limited workload; he's not efficient at all with a 3.3 yards per attempt. Where Mattison has shined has been a weapon for this Raiders offence in the passing game. He's caught 25 of his 29 targets for 245 receiving yards and one receiving TD, ranking 19th among RBs in receiving yards around the league. And in the passing game, he is efficient, averaging 9.8 yards per reception. The Buccaneers make up for their poo pass defence with a great run defence, led by Vita Vea. Tampa Bay allows the fourth-fewest rush attempts (18.7) and the 10th-fewest (84.9). But that's fine, cause Mattison isn't great on the ground anyway. But in the passing game, he'll be more involved –– and will have more success –– because the Buccaneers allow the second most targets (7), the most receptions (6) and the most receiving yards (48.2) per game to RBs. Over his previous six games, Mattison has recorded 20+ receiving yards in all five games, 30+ in three games and even topping out at 50+ in his latest match.

Suggested Pick:
If Mattison ruled in, play his receiving yards up to 19.5.

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi Meyers continues to prove he can be a relied upon option no matter which QB plays for the Raiders. Over the five games since Adams was traded, Meyers has double-digit targets in three of those games, two of which are in his latest two games. With that volume, Meyers has 34 receptions for 403 receiving yards and one TD and proved he can be a number one option. The Buccaneers are struggling against QBs, which coincides with their struggles against WRs, allowing the third most receptions (14) and the seventh most receiving yards (162.3). With Tampa Bay running the most zone coverage in the league, is a great matchup for Meyers, as he has the highest PFF grade against the coverage for Raiders WRs with an 80% catch rate and, shockingly, has the highest yards per recpetion (11.2) on the team. That's not something you typically see from a high possession WR. Meyers lines up all over the field, 36% on the left, 25% in the slot and 39% on the right. So he will likely see a lot of CBs, but will mainly draw the Zyon McCollum matchup. McCollum is coming off a game where he allowed just one reception on six targets. Sure, it was against the Panthers so might not be the most difficult matchup. Before that, he allowed 15 receptions on 18 targets over the previous three weeks. To outside WRs, the Buccaneers allow the third-most targets (185) and the 14th highest catch rate (63.8%). With Meyers' high catch rate, he should be able to continue his recent success in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Jakobi Meyers o5.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Tre Tucker

We broke down a lot of the WR numbers in Meyers' write-up, but Tucker is a big play waiting to happen type of guy. Last week, he only saw one target. However, he turned that one target into a 58 yard touchdown reception, further highlighting his big play ability. Tucker is a bit better against man coverage with his deadly speed, but he leads the Raiders in aDoT (10.4) and should be able to sneak past the coverage and take a pass deep. Over his previous five games, he has logged a 20+ yard reception in four of those games, for an average long reception of 26.8 yards. Tucker lines up on the left 45% of the time, and will likely draw the Jamel Dean matchup. Dean has a low catch rate at 65.9%, but has allowed a 20+ yard reception in five of his last six games.

Suggested Pick:
Tre Tucker 20+ Longest Reception (+135)

TE Brock Bowers

What is there to even say about Bowers at this point? He's smashing all the rookie TE records, and he even has the most receptions in the entire NFL, with 84 –– three ahead of Amon Ra St. Brown, and five ahead of Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb. The rookie has played well with and without Adams. Over his past three games, he has two games with double digit receptions, and 125+ receiving yards. He's used early and often for this Raiders team. The Buccaneers struggle against TEs, allowing the 14th-most receptions (5.5) but the third most receiving yards (66.7) per game. Those two games where he popped off for over 125+ receiving yards, Bowers was against the Chiefs –– who allow the most receiving yards to TEs –– and the Dolphins –– who allow the 11th-most receiving yards to TEs. So in favourable matchups, like he has this week, is when Bowers excels. Bowers lines up mostly in the slot at 54.8%. The Buccaneers allow the fifth most receptions (99) and the third most receiving yards (1,139) to slot receivers this season. We laddered Bowers last week. And we're doing it again in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Brock Bowers o69.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
80+ Receiving Yards (+140)
90+ Receiving Yards (+210)

QB Baker Mayfield

What is there really to say about Baker other than he's been an absolute baller this season. He ranks seventh in passing yards (3,034), the third most passing TDs (25) and third highest completion percentage (70.8%). He developed some great chemistry early on with Chris Godwin, but once he and Mike Evans missed time, he relied on Cade Otton and his legs to bring the Buccaneers back to playoff-contending status. This Raiders allow quite a bit of completions (22.3) and pass attempts (33.7), but the 17th-most passing yards (230.9). This tells me Mayfield is going to have success in the short area of the field. Which fits perfectly for this matchup as he averages the third-lowest aDoT (6.5) across all starting QBs. The Raiders run the eighth most man coverage (32.7%), and the fifth-fewest zone (58.6%). But, for Baker, it doesn't really matter, as he has the fifth-highest completion percentage against man coverage and the third-highest against zone. Baker shouldn't have a problem completing passes in this matchup. And we're thinking he completes those passes in the end zone. The Raiders allow the fifth most passing TDs (1.8) per game this season, and have allowed opposing QBs to throw two or more four of their last five games. Mayfield hasn't thrown for 2+ passing TDs in his last three games, but before that, had a stretch where he threw two in six straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Baker Mayfield o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135)

RB Bucky Irving

Well, it was finally Bucky Irving's breakout party last week as the rookie exploded for 152 rushing yards on 25 rush attempts with one touchdown on the ground and three receptions for 33 receiving yards through the air. On the season, Irving leads the Buccanees RB room in carries (133), rushing yards (732) and six rushing TDs. This Raiders defence allow the 17th-most rushing yards (94.3) to RBs, and the 12th-fewest receiving yards (30) per game. However, they do struggle in allowing volume through the air to RBs, allowing the ninth most receptions (4.8) per game. But that's more Rachaad White's bread and butter. On the ground, the Raiders run zone concept 47.8% of the time, compared to 35.4% man/gap. While they run more zone, they actually allow a higher yards per carry (4.71) by a considerable margin (4.02 against man/gap). Unfortunately for Bucky, it's man/gap where he really succeeds, averaging 6.5 yards per carry, to 3.81 against zone. Regardless, Bucky seems to have taken over the backfield, and should start to see him take over a heavier workload in the offence which will lead to more rushing yards against a weak rushing team. He has recorded 70+ rush yards in three straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Bucky Irving o68.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Rachaad White

As we alluded to earlier, the Raiders struggle against limiting receiving RBs volume, allowing the ninth most receptions (4.8) per game. While we're seeing White lose the groundwork to Irving, his receiving role is very much still intact. Over the past 10 games, he's still earned more targets, 37 to 34. They have the same amount of receptions at 33, but if you look at their season-long passing snaps, it's not close. White has ran a route on 220 of his 279 passing downs, to Irving's 165 routes on 190 passing plays. While over the last two weeks, White has seen just one target in each game. However, if we're going to start to see a shift in Bucky's workload on the ground, White should see an uptick in his receiving to maximize his strength while giving Irving a break.

Suggested Pick:
Rachaad White o2.5 Receptions (+105)

WR Mike Evans

Mike Evans has returned and has no real competition for targets for another WR. McMillian and Shepard just haven't been playing at a high enough level to really cut into Evans' workload. He has only played in two games since his injury but has caught 13 of his 18 targets for 186 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. The Raiders defence allow the 17th-most receptions (11.4) but the ninth-fewest receiving yards (134) to WRs per game this season. Las Vegas has really struggled at limiting opposing WR1s. Over the previous two weeks, they've allowed Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele to go over 50 receiving yards, and all but Worthy having gone over 80 receiving yards. With the Raiders running the eighth most man coverage (32.7%). Evans leads the Buccaneers receiving room in PFF grade against man coverage, recording 15 receptions for 153 receiving yards and four TDs, with a 10.2 yards per reception and 10.2 aDoT. Which is kind of funny, because that's the exact same number that the Raiders aDoT against WRs vs. man coverage. Evans lines up on the left 44% of the time and will likey draw the Decamerion Richardson matchup. The fourth-round rookie got his first start two weeks ago, where he allowed five receptions on eight targets for 70 receiving yards and one touchdown. He followed that up with a strong performance against the Chiefs, allowing just two receptions on four targets for 41 receiving yards. With Evans lining up mainly on the outside, the Raiders allow the second-highest aDoT (14.2) to outside WRs in man coverage and the highest targets per route run (0.26), Evans should have a good game this week. Not to mention, he's still chasing 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th consecutive year. Mayfield is going to start to force feed him the ball, and in a matchup against Richardson who's allowing a lot of yards, should help him toward that goal.

Suggested Pick:
Mike Evans o68.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Mike Evans 80+ Receiving Yards (+140)

WR Sterling Shepard

We went in depth with Evans, so we'll keep Shepard short and sweet. Shepard has filled into the slot role once Godwin was lost for the year, and while it wasn't a great start, he's definitely became more acclimated in the offence. Without Godwin, he's run in the slot 55% of his games in four of the five games, with 5+ targets in four of those five, topping out with seven targets in each of his previous two games. Over that span, Shepard is running 61% of his routes from the slot, he'll often draw the Darnay Holmes matchup. Holmes has struggled over the past three weeks, allowing an 82% catch rate. Shepard isn't great against man yardage-wise, but he has caught eight of his 13 targets against the coverage. He has recorded three receptions in four of those five games.

Suggested Pick:
Sterling Shepard o2.5 Receptions (-155)

TE Cade Otton

As mentioned, Otton has really stepped up for this Buccaneers team, now leading the team in receptions (54) and just 70 yards off the lead in receiving yards with 506. Since Evans returned, hos usage has taken a hit, recording just five receptions for 50 yards over that span. However, the Raiders are a matchup to target against TEs. They allow the fourth-most targets (8.1), second-most receptions (6.2), and the second-most receiving yards (66.9). Otton lines up inline 50.1% of his routes. To inline receiviers, the Raiders allow the fourth-highest catch rate (87.8%). The Raiders have allowed starting TEs to record 5+ receptions in four straight games. So while Otton's volume has been down lately, he should be able to explode again in what projects to be a favourable matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Cade Otton o4.5 Receptions (+115)

These teams are going in opposite directions. The Raiders have full on tank mode, hoping to earn a high enough pick to find their QB of the future in the draft. On the other hand, the Buccaneers are very much in contention for the top seed in their division, just one game back of the failing Atlanta Falcons. While the Raiders lost last week, they were so close to beating the 11-1 Chiefs. So this lines up perfectly for a let down spot for them against a team fighting for their playoff lives.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -6.5 -110
Lean: Over 46.5 -125
Buccaneers 30 - Raiders 17

Anytime TD Picks

Mike Evans (+105)
As we mentioned, the Raiders allow 1.8 passing TDs per game. Evans leads the receiving room in end zone TDs this season (6) and end zone targets (12). If we're thinking he's going to get heavily targeted in hopes of achieving the consecutive 1,000 receiving-yard season, Evans should be able to find the end zone in this game.

Longshot: Michael Mayer (+650)
This is a long shot for a reason. Mayer doesn't have a TD on the season, but his opportunity should rise, considering DJ Turner has shifted to IR. While he's the backup TE to Bowers, as we've already come to realize, Bowers actually runs most of his routes out of the slot. So, with Meyers and Tucker on the outside and Bowers in the slot, Mayer should receive more route participation. Over the past four weeks, Mayer has four red zone targets.

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: Mike Evans First TD (+600)
The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in seven of their 12 games this season. Six of those TDs have gone to WRs, with the lone RB to get it being third string Sean Tucker. Evans have caught two of those six TDs, Godwin caught three of them. So, without Godwin, Evans should get more looks, especially early.

Longshot: Jakobi Meyers First TD (+1400)
As for the Raiders, they have only scored the first TD in five of their 13 games. Three have gone to three separate RBs, with Meyers and Tucker scoring the other two. Given that the Buccaneers average just 0.5 rushing TDs to RBs per game, we'll take the heavily targeted Meyers to find the end zone first for the Raiders.

Parlay #1 +175
Aidan O'Connell 200+ Passing Yards
Brock Bowers 60+ Receiving Yards
Mike Evans 60+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #2 +325
Aidan O'Connell 225+ Passing Yards
Brock Bowers 70+ Receiving Yards
Mike Evans 70+ Receiving Yards

Parlay #3 +600
Aidan O'Connell o235.5 Passing Yards
Brock Bowers 80+ Receiving Yards
Mike Evans 80+ Receiving Yards

QB Bryce Young

Has anybody had as good of a bounce back after a benching than Bryce Young? Since taking over the starting position, Young has started five games. The first three, he was alright. He completed 62.1% of his passes for 521 passing yards (an average of 173.7 per game). However, these last two games Young has gone for 263 and 298 passing yards, nearly beating the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His completion percentage is down (58.3%), but his efficiency is way up. But this week will be his biggest challenge playing against the Eagles. The Eagles allow the third-fewest passing yards (200.3) per game this season. They don't allow a ton of volume either, averaging just 32.4 pass attempts per game. This isn't great for Young as where he's thrived over the past two weeks with an average of 7.0 yards per attempt, the Eagles rank dead last in yards per attempt allowed at 6.18. The Eagles do rank 14th in deep throws this season, but Young has just a 10.7% deep throw completion percentage. The Eagles run the 15th most zone coverage, but Young averages the 37th (out of 40) most passing yards per game against zone (105.3) and the 33rd-best completion percentage (66%). The Eagles have allowed only prolific passers like Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow to throw for 200+ passing yards over the past eight weeks. While it's been looking up for Young recently, that was against the Chiefs and the Buccaneers, two pass defences that aren't nearly as good as this Eagles defence, so some regression should be coming in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Bryce Young u194.5 passing yards (-110)

RB Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard has been the consistent bright spot for the Panthers this season. He currently sits sixth in rushing yards (919) with 189 rush attempts and seven rushing TDs. Now, since Brooks made his debut, it hasn't really cut into Hubbard's workload. He has still logged 89% and 79% of the snaps, but has seen his efficiency dip, recording just 58 and 43 rushing yards. Granted, he has played against two of the best run defences in the Chiefs and the Buccaneers. Although, he faces a similar match this week against the Eagles, who allow the seventh-fewest rushing yards (84) in the league. Given the Eagles are often leading, that does allow them to allow some passing game work to the RBs, allowing the 14th-most receptions (4.5) and receiving yards (33.8) to RBs per game. Now, it looks like Brooks is the better of the two in the passing game. Or, at least, that how they were used last week. So maybe he has the better matchup. And, while Hubbard still had 79% of the snaps last week, Brooks' snaps went up and will continue to carve into Hubbard's workload, resulting in Hubbard seeing less touches, less yards, and struggle to allow him to find his grove in a game situation.

Suggested Pick:
Chuba Hubbard u52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Jonathan Brooks

As mentioned, the Eagles struggle through the air against opposing RBs and that seems to be how this Panthers offence is getting Brooks involved to get him worked into a regular role. In his NFL debut, Brooks logged just 8% of the snaps. But by just his second game, that number already increased to 21%. He didn't earn a single target in his debut, despite running two routes. The following week he earned three targets and caught all of them for 23 receiving yards. But he ran just six routes. Meaning he was targeted on 50% of his routes. Now, it's a small sample size, but if that's how he's going to be utilized against a team that struggles against receiving RBs with an increasing role, give me some more of Brooks in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Jonathan Brooks o8.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Brooks 20+ Receiving Yards (+280)

WR Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen popped off last week with some spectacular catches, finishing the game with eight catches on 10 targets for 99 receiving yards and a TD. Now, was that an outlier? Or is that what we should expect moving forward? Because he played with Young for the first three weeks of the season and he never eclipsed three receptions or 50 yards. He only really did well against a porous Buccaneers passing defence but now faces the Eagles, who allow the ninth fewest receptions (10.9) and the single fewest receiving yards (123.8) per game. Philadelphia runs the 15th most zone coverage (68.7%). Against zone coverage, Thielen has caught 12 of his 18 targets, for 128 receiving yards and one touchdown, but only commands an 18.8% target share on his routes run against the coverage, indicating he's having trouble finding the holes in the zone to get open. Thielen lines up in the slot 63% of his snaps, and will often draw the Cooper DeJean matchup. DeJean has been targeted often over the past four weeks, garnering 31 targets over that span, and he's allowed 21 catches. But he's really not allowing much in terms of yardage, allowing no more than 53 in a single game, averaging 38.3 yards per game. Hopefully, we see similar volume for Thielen like we saw last week, because they're going to need him if they're going to compete in this game.

Suggested Pick:
Adam Thielen o4.5 Receptions (+105)

WR Xavier Legette

Legette hasn't been outstanding, but he's been steady. He has 30+ receiving yards in five straight games, with that number going up as the weeks go on, now turning that into back-to-back 50+ receiving yard games. With the Eagles running more zone, doesn't bode well for Legette in this matchup. Of the main WR room in Carolina, Legette has the lowest PFF grade of them all, catching just 15 of his 29 targets for a 51.7% catch rate, and just 155 receiving yards. It's man coverage where he wins, catching 17 of his 20 targets. Legette lines up on the right side 41% of the team, and will likely draw the Darius Slay matchup. Big play Slay hasn't been allowing any big play's lately, as he's allowed 10 receptions on 21 targets over his last five games. Yardage-wise, he's been sound, allowing 125 receiving yards over that span for an average of 25 receiving yards per game. The Eagles allow the sixth-fewest catch rate to outside WRs, and the third-fewest yards per game (71.8) to the outside.

Suggested Pick:
Xavier Legette u34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Tommy Tremble

There really isn't too much data on Tommy Tremble this season. He lost his starting job to Ja'Tavion Sanders, but has now taken over while Sanders is out with an injury. In the one game without Sanders, Tremble took advantage of the easy matchup, catching five of his eight targets for 77 receiving yards. It was also his first game where he ran 100% of the snaps. Now, Tremble likely won't have the same success against the Eagles, as they allow the 12th-fewest receptions (4.8) and eighth-fewest receiving yards (42.6) to TEs this season. Tremble ran the most routes on the season last week, and now he might see a similar workload, but in a tougher matchup, he might not get as lucky. If we're projecting Adam Thielen to have success through the middle of the field, it will likely come at the cost of Tremble's success. However, a 1.5 reception line for a guy who might have the full TE room to himself seems too low.

Suggested Pick:
Tommy Tremble o1.5 Receptions (-150)

QB Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has kind of had to take a back seat this season with Saquon Barkley coming to town. He's averaging just 207.8 passing yards per game, which is over 20 yards fewer than his per game average last season, and that includes Week 18 where he played 43% of the snaps and just threw 55 passing yards. Over the past two weeks, he's thrown for 297 passing yards (179 and 118, respectively). The dip is just due to Barkley. In those two games, Barkley has 362 rushing yards (255 and 107, respectively), which is 65 more rushing yards than Hurts has passing. In this matchup, that shouldn't change much. The Panthers allow the sixth most completions (21.5), 11th-fewest pass attempts (31.3), but the 15th-most passing yards (234.8). Where they do struggle is keeping teams out of the end zone through the air, as they allow the third-most passing TDs (1.8) to opposing QBs. However, Hurts really hasn't been a passing TD machine this season, recording multiple passing TDs in four of 12 games this season. Now, this has to do with the tush-push and Barkley snaking the long TD plays. But regardless, with the Panthers struggling on the ground, this should mean a big Barkley day, cutting into Hurts' totals. Hurts has recorded 25+ pass attempts just once over the past eight games.

Suggested Pick:
Jalen Hurts u25.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

RB Saquon Barkley

This has to be the juiciest matchup on the entire week. Saquon is the leading rusher in the NFL with 1,499 rushing yards on 246 rush attempts and 11 touchdowns on the season. Those numbers are good for an average of 6.1 yards per carry, 124.9 rushing yards per game and nearly a TD per game. Insane numbers. This week, Barkley (the number one rusher) faces off against the Panthers (the worst run defence in the league. Carolina allows the most rush attempts (28.2), the most rushing yards (137.7) and the most rushing TDs (1.3) to RBs this season. There's no clear advantage in the run game against the Panthers, as they allow the 4.99 yards per carry in zone and 4.98 against man/gap. Saquon is a bit of the same, averaging 5.98 yards per carry against zone and 6.28 against man/gap. Barkley's line is high, 113.5, but that's for a reason. Not only is has he put himself in the MVP conversation, but the Panthers have allowed some crazy numbers lately: White 76, Irving (152), Tracey (103), Kamara (155), Bijan (95), Allgeier (105. There's not much more to say. Play Saquon in fantasy. Bet his regular line. Ladder his rushing yards line.

Suggested Pick:
Saquon Barkley o113.5 Rush Yards (-120)
Barkley 130+ Rushing Yards (+160)
Barkley 140+ Rushing Yards (+220)
Barkley 150+ Rushing Yards (+320)

WR AJ Brown

Having Saquon pop off has hurt everybody else in this offence, as if Hurts isn't throwing the ball, Brown isn't getting the ball too much. Now, these guys don't care who gets it, as long as somebody does and the team wins, but for our purposes, it's frustrating. Brown has eclipsed 70 receiving yards in just two of his previous five games, but saw over 100 when he did. It might not all be Saquon's fault because DeVonta Smith has been out the previous two games, which would only force more double-teams on Brown. The Panthers allow the 15th-most (11.8) receptions and the 18th-most receiving yards (140.8) to WRs this season. Now, it's not like this Panthers team are good against WRs, their run defence is that bad, where opposing teams simply don't need to throw on them, resulting in their middling numbers. The Panthers run the 11th most zone coverage (73.1%). The only problem for the Panthers against Brown, is that you just cannot guard the guy. You can't throw any coverage at him that he cannot beat. Against man, he has the single-highest PFF grade in the NFL, recording 15 catches on 21 targets for 294 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Against zone, he has the second-highest PFF grade in the NFL, recording 26 receptions on 35 targets for 454 receiving yards and two touchdowns. It might be a busy night for Jaycee Horn, as he's slotted to draw the Brown matchup. Horn has been targetted often, allowing 17 receptions on 26 targets over the past three weeks, for an average of 52.8 yards per game. I know it's been a down week, and we're anticipating Saquon to take a lot of the work, but Brown should be able to do some damage in this matchup, especially with Smith returning.

Suggested Pick
AJ Brown o76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR DeVonta Smith

Now, everything good we just covered for Brown, doesn't really apply for Smith. It's unfortunate because before his two injuries, Smith was well on his way to a solid season, playing in the slot. And while it's a good matchup for him to make his return game wise, that likely won't lead to a big day in the stats department. Smith is returning from a hamstring injury, he's going to need some reps to get his legs under him. So I could certainly see Brown having the big day with Smith getting eased in, working his way back to full health. With the Panthers being more zone heavy, Smith performs much better against the coverage, with an 83.9% catch rate, catching 26 of 31 targets for 3123 receiving yards. He has become much more of a possession receiver this season, due to his higher slot usage. His previous career high in terms of slot participation was 31.1% last season, but now it's up to 51.9%. Chau Smith-Wade is the slot corner for the, and will draw the Smith matchup. Smith-Wade is not a regular starter but is allowing a 72.7% catch rate on the season in his limited snaps. Although the Panthers as a whole allow the third-fewest receiving yards () per game to slot WRs. While we aren't anticipating a big game from Smith, they'll likely want to get him involved early and will throw the ball his way on the first drive.

Suggested Pick:
DeVonta Smith Reception First Drive (+100)

TE Grant Calcaterra

Calcaterra gets a massive bump this week as the Eagles will be without star TE Dallas Goedert. On the season, Calcaterra has 17 receptions on 20 targets for 216 receiving yards. This will be the third time Calcaterra will be without Goedert this season. In those games, Calcaterra has caught all nine of his targets, turning that into 93 receiving yards. In games with Goedert this season, Calcaterra has more than one reception in two of nine games, with zero receptions in four straight. The Panthers allow the 10th-most receptions (5.6) and sixth-most receiving yards (63). We've seen Calcaterra perform when the Eagles need him without Goedert, now with Goedert out and Smith returning from injury, he might be dominating the middle of the field.

Suggested Pick:
Grant Calcaterra o2.5 Receptions (-115)

I think we all know how this game is going to go. The Eagles might be the best team in football right now with how Saquon and their defence is playing. The Panthers have shown signs over the past few weeks, but it won't be enough to compete with this Eagles team who has Super Bowl aspirations.

Best Bet: Eagles -13.5 -110
Lean - Over 45.5 -125
Eagles 38 - Panthers 10

Anytime TD Picks

Best: Saquon Barkley (-250)
The odds are gross, but this is as close to a certainty as one can get in terms of TD props. But, let's be honest, nobody can bet this line straight (but seriously, put this in all your parlays for an extra boost). So, I'll give a better straight play.

Best V2: AJ Brown (+100)
Brown has caught four receiving TDs this season, but only one in his previous six games. The Panthers allow 0.92 passing TDs per game to WRs, but has allowed opposing number one WRs to score in two straight games (Mike Evans & DeAndre Hopkins).

Longshot TD Picks

Kenneth Gainwell (+350)
This game could get out of hand very quickly. If Saquon and the Eagles go up big, we could see Gainwell get some garbage time rushes. If that's the case, it wouldn't be surprising for Gainwell to find the end zone late, especially against this Panthers-run defence.

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick Saquon Barkley (+260)
For eveything we've already talked about with Saquon scoring, it's going to happen, and with the low price of +260 for him to score first, Vegas thinks so too. The Eagles have scored the first touchdown in eight games this season. Saquon has scored four of those eight touchdowns.

Longshot: Xavier Legette (+2200)
Legette is certainly not a TD machine, having scored just four TDs this season. However, he is the biggest body in the WR room and I could see the only way the Panthers are going to get in the end zone having to chuck a 50/50 ball for their big WR to go up and come down with it. Legette has one of the Panthers' five first TDs this season.

Parlay 1: +475 odds on bet365
Jonathan Brooks 2+ Receptions
Adam Thielen 4+ Receptions
Chuba Hubbard u52.5 Rushing Yards

Parlay 2: +200 odds on bet365
Saquon Barkley TD
Saquon Barkley o113.5 Rushing Yards
Philadelphia Eagles -9.5

Parlay 3: +750 odds on bet365
Saquon Barkley 2+ TDs
Saquon Barkley 150+ Rushing Yards

QB Aaron Rodgers

The Aaron Rodgers experiment in New York has not been what the Jets have wanted. In terms of passing yards, he sits in the middle of the pack with 2,627 passing yards, but remains in the bottom of the league in completion percentage of all starting QBs at 62.5%. This week, he plays the Dolphins, who give up the 12th-lowest completion percentage at 64.5%. The numbers work out for the Dolphins, allowing the 13th-fewest completions (20.8), 12th-fewest pass attempts and the eighth-fewest passing yards (216.8) per game. In difficult matchups like Rodgers projects to see this week (against bottom 10 defences), he averages a 64.1% completion percentage, averaging 212 passing yards, but averages 2+ passing TDs. Miami has been pretty good at keeping the ball out of the end zone, allowing just 1.1 PTDs per game to QBs. The Dolphins run the 12th-most zone coverage (72.2%). Rodgers struggles against zone, with the 28th-highest completion percentage (68.2%) and the 27th-most passing yards per game (147.1) against the coverage.Now, while on the season the Dolphins have a solid pass defence, Miami has actually struggled over the previous four games. Miami has allowed opposing QBs to throw for 270+ passing yards in three of the four games. On the flip side, Rodgers has only thrown for 200+ passing yards in one of his previous four games. So, which side breaks here? Considering Breece Hall is ruled out, they might need to rely on Rodgersarm more in this matchup.

Suggested Pick
Aaron Rodgers o35.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

RB Braelon Allen

With Breece Hall being officially ruled out, Braelon Allen gets the keys to the backfield, with relatively no competition behind him. Allen has 240 rushing yards on 67 rush attempts this season, for a 3.6 yards per carry. Through the air, he's caught 12 of his 18 targets for 97 receiving yards and has found the end zone three times. This will be the first test for Allen to prove if he can be a starter at the NFL level. This Dolphins run defence is middle of the pack in every category: 21st in rush attempts (20.7), 19th in rushing yards (89.9), 22nd in receptions (4) and 12th in receiving yards (34.4). What sticks out here is the Dolphins ranking in the bottom half of the league in receptions to RBs,but top-12 in receiving yards, indicating they allow big plays through the air out of the backfield. Allen runs 82.5% of his routes out of the backfield, which makes sense as a RB. The Dolphins allow the 12th-most receiving yards to RBs (401) when lined up in the backfield and the second-highest yards per reception (8.9). Allen has recorded a 10+ yard reception in four of 12 games this season, three of them coming in the first five weeks. But he recorded a 10+ yard reception last week. So now, with Hall out and Allen expecting to receive all the receiving work, this number should be easily attainable for Allen.

Suggested Pick:
Braelon Allen o9.5 Longest Reception (-125)

WR Garrett Wilson

After five straight weeks of offensive fireworks, posting 40 receptions, 472 receiving yards and four receiving TDs, Wilson has fallen back down to earth. In his last three games, Wilson has 14 receptions for 100 receiving yards and zero TDs. His downfall coincides with Adams playing a bit better as of late, however, it's not like he's blowing him out of the water, having just one game with 70 or more receiving yards over Wilson's struggles. The Dolphins allow the sixth-fewest receptions (10.6) and the second-fewest receiving yards (124.3) to WRs per game this season. Miami also runs the 12th-most zone coverage (72.7%). Wilson has 41 receptions on 64 targets for 386 receiving yards against zone, earning a 24.7% target share, leading the team. Wilson lines up on the left 44% of the time and will often draw the Jalen Ramsey matchup. Ramsey has been great this season, allowing a 72.7% catch rate and 313 receiving yards against. Over his past four games, he's allowinga lot of receptions, averaging 4.3 per game, but his yardage is down, at 36.8 receiving yards per game. While we do like Wilson's outlook better for the remainder of the season, it likely won't be this week that he'll have his bounce back.

Suggested Pick
Garrett Wilson u57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Davante Adams

Adams has been the better of the two WRs over the past four weeks, recording 24 receptions on 41 targets for 260 receiving yards and two TDs. Just like Wilson, it's going to be a tough matchup for Adams in this game. With the Dolphins running the 12th-most zone, Adams has caught 36 of 48 of his targets for 382 receiving yards, earning a 23.7% target share, just under Wilson. These numbers in comparison to his numbers against man coverage, where he has just a 34.6% catch rate (9/26) for 117 receiving yards. Adams really lines up all over the field, but his highest is 37% of his routes in the slot, meaning he'll likely draw the Kader Kohou matchup. Kohou played just nine snaps last week, so we'll throw that game out the window. In the previous three weeks before last, Kohou allowed a reception on 14 of 17 targets for 119 yards. With his increased volume, in a favourable matchup against Kohou, Adams should catch enough balls in this matchup, where the Jets should be trailing and need to throw to get back into the game. Adams has recorded six-or-more receptions in three of the past four weeks.

Suggested Pick:
Davante Adams o5.5 Receptions (-125)

TE Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin really hasn't been involved in this offence lately. Although, he had one of his best weeks since Week 5, where he recorded four receptions on five targets for 32 receiving yards. The three weeks leading up to last, Conklin failed to register more than one reception, two targets and eight receiving yards. However, things might return to last week for Conklin as the Dolphins allow the most targets to TEs (8.7), the fourth-most receptions (6.0) and the 11th-most receiving yards (58.2) per game. Conklin runs most of his routes in the slot (49.3%) and inline (40.3%). The Dolphins allow a 70.2% catch rate to slot receivers and 73.3% catch rate to inline receivers. So no matter where Conklin lines up, he should be able to see a high volume in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Tyler Conklin o2.5 Receptions (+105)

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua has been balling since returning. He's logged 200+ passing yards in each of the six games, recording 285+ three times, topping out at 365 passing yards. In what was very much a gun-slinger system last season, Tua has changed his reputation as he leads the league in completion percentage (74.5%). What has changed for Tua from this year to last? Well, he's seen his aDoT go from 8.1 to 6.2, which has led to him completing more passes, going from 68.2% to the 74.5% we see today. In the two games before his concussion, he 65.1% completion percentage. But since returning, Tua has had a 77.5% completion percentage and a 13-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But that's where this is going to hurt Tua. This Jets defence allow the fewest completions (17.3), second-fewest pass attempts (28.3), and second-fewest passing yards (197.2) to QBs. So not a great edge there in terms of how Tua's playing lately. However, the one area where this Jets pass defence struggles is forcing turnovers. They have just two interceptions the entire season. And, given Tua's ability to protect the ball lately, they should continue against a banged-up Jets secondary who can't turn the ball over. Tua has yet to throw an interception against man coverage –– which the Jets run fourth most (35.9%) across the league.

Suggested Pick
Tua Tagovailoa u0.5 Interception (-140)

RB Devon Achane

Devon Achane has been great through the air this season, but struggled on the ground. He has the second-most receptions (57) and the fourth-most receiving yards (429) on the Dolphins. However, on the ground, Achane has 576 rushing yards on 139 rush attempts for a 4.1yards per carry. This is good for 24th in the NFL among starting RBs in terms of efficiency on the ground. However, this Jets defence is a shell of themselves. They were a complete non-target the previous two seasons, but now, they allow the third-most rush attempts (24.7) and the 13th-most rushing yards (100.1) per game. However, through the air, they're good at limiting opposing RBs, allowing the eighth-fewest receptions (3.7) and the 11th-fewest receiving yards (29.8). With how these two teams are going, with the Jets missing Breece Hall, they might not need to use Achane as much in the passing game, as they should be leading and running out the clock. In losses this season, Achane averages 5.3 receptions per game. But in wins, he averages just 4.0 receptions.

Suggested Pick:
Devon Achane u4.5 Receptions (-130)

WR Tyreek Hill

This is a season to forget for Tyreek. Since Week 1, Hill has not gone over 100+ receiving yards, a feat he reached in half of his games last season. He is on pace to have his first season under 1,000 yards (926) since his rookie season. Now, its hard to truly blame him for everything when he's been playing through a wrist injury and didn't have his start QB for half of the season.However, even with Tua now back in the lineup, he's averaging 5.2 receptions on 6.7 targets for 60 receiving yards. The lone bright spot is that Hill has had success finding the end zone, as he's scored in three of his last four games. The Jets aren't a favourable matchup for a struggling Hill, as they allow the fewest receptions (9.1), the third-fewest receiving yards (125.4) and run the fourth-most man coverage (35.9%). Hill against man coverage has caught just 11 of his 24 targets this season, which is a huge downfall considering he had the seventh-most receiving yards (423) and a 65.7 catch rate against man coverage last season. Hill lines up on the right side 40% of the time, and will likely draw the Brandin Echols matchup. Echols is not a mainstarter, but with Sauce Gardner out, he slides in and is projected to draw one of the fastest guys in the league? I don't see that lasting long.Considering how this Jets defence is performing this season, and the struggles of Hill, it might not be the best week for him. Hill has under 65 receiving yards in three of his previous four games against the Jets.

Suggested Pick
Tyreek Hill u62.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Now, Waddle is the one who's stepping up on the outside lately. Waddle has recorded 50+ receiving yards in three of the previous four weeks, topping out at 144 receiving yards against the Patriots two weeks ago. He's doing this despite being out-targeted by Hill 27-22 over that four week span. Waddle has had incredible success against man coverage this season, catching all 15 of his targets for 202 receiving yards and a 10.2 aDoT against the coverage. Waddle lines up on the left side 45% of the time and will likely draw the D.J. Reed matchup. However, Reed has started every game this season, and will likely switch onto Tyreek Hill in this matchup, leaving Waddle to get the Echols matchup, which is the clear favourable one. With Waddle mainly playing on the outside, the Jets rank in the bottom five in all the important metrics to outside WRs. However, the one area where they rank high, is in yards per reception, where they rank third-highest (15.2). Despite his poor season, Waddle has recorded a 20+ yard reception in seven of 12 games this season. The Jets have allowed opposing WR2s to record a 20+ yard reception in five of the last six games.

Suggested Pick:
Jaylen Waddle 20+ Longest Reception (-115)

TE Jonnu Smith

Outside of Bowers, it's not a stretch to say that Jonnu Smith has been the best TE in football over the past five weeks. He's recorded 5+ receptions in four of five games, averaging 6.6 receptions on 8.0 targets per game. This increased volume has resulted in 45+ receiving yards in all five games, with two games over 100 receiving yards. The Jets are fairly good against opposing TEs, averaging the seventh-fewest receptions (4.5) and the ninth-fewest receiving yards (42.7) per game. For a TE, Jonnu runs a surprisingly high amount of percentage from the slot, at 51.7% of his routes. He will draw the Michael Carter matchup. Carter has played just 61 snaps over the past three weeks, but has managed to allow a very high catch rate of 85.7%. With how well Jonnu has been playing lately, seeing 29 targets over his past three weeks, should lead to another heavy volume day over the middle of the field.

Suggested Pick:
Jonnu Smith 50+ Receiving Yards (-110)

The Jets poor play with the Dolphins improving play has me wanting to side with the Dolphins, especially now that they're back at home. And, quite honestly, I'm done trying to back this Jets team. They just haven't been able to put it together this season, and the Dolphins should bounce back after not proving the critics wrong last week in the cold against the Packers.

Best Bets: Dolphins -5.5 -120
Lean: Under 44.5 -110
Dolphins 24 - Jets 13

Anytime TD Picks

Best: Braelon Allen (+110)
We're picking Allen just based on usage. Even with Hall involved, Allen earned six red zone rush attempts. Now, with Hall out, he'll likely receive all of the work if the Jets get close. Allen has just three TDs on the season, but the Dolphins allow 0.92 rushing TDs and 0.25 receiving TDs to opposing RBs per game.

Longshot: Devon Achane 2+ TDs (+350)
Achane has been a scoring machine lately, with seven touchdowns in his previous six games. He dominates in terms of red zone carries with 25 red zone rush attempts this season, and 73.4% of the Dolphins carries inside the one yard line. Not only is he a threat to score on the ground, but he also through the air, earning 12 red zone targets this season.

First Touchdown Picks

Best: Braelon Allen (+650)
Surprisingly, the Jets scored the first touchdown in 7 of their 12 games this season. They've been able to spread the first TD around as there are seven different players to have scored the first TD, one being Breece Hall. But with no Hall, we're going to back the main rusher to get in first for the Jets this week.

Longshot: Jonnu Smith (+1000)
Jonnu Smith has scored in just three games this season, but two of those three games he scored the first TD. Having to compete with Achane, Hill and Waddle is a tough task, but considering his recent success, +1000 is a great price for the leading first TD scorer on the Dolphins.

Parlay 1: +250 odds on bet365
Devon Achane TD
Tua Tagovailoa u0.5 Interception
Jonnu Smith 30+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: +275 odds on bet365
Aaron Rodgers 35+ Pass Attempts
Davante Adams 5+ Receptions
Braelon Allen 75+ Rushing & Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: +625 odds on bet365
Tua Tagovailoa u0.5 Interception
Braelon Allen 20+ Receiving Yards
Jonnu Smith 50+ Receiving Yards

QB Geno Smith

Geno is averaging 270.1 passing yards per game, 7.43 YPA and has thrown 13 TDs. He’ll face a Cardinals defense that are 18^th in passing yards allowed and force the 5^th highest pass rate over expected in the NFL. The Cardinals blitz 24.2% of the time, the 11^th lowest rate in the league. Geno averages 9.05 YPA and has a completion rate of 70.8% against the blitz, compared to 6.82 YPA and 68% completion rate when not blitzed. On the season, the Cardinals play two-high 50.9% of the time, but interestingly played two-high at a league leading 73% of the time when these 2 teams matched up in week 12. Geno averages 7.68 YPA and has a 70.9% completion rate against two-high, compared to 7.19 YPA and a completion rate of 66.7% against single-high.  They also played zone coverage 83.3% of the time in this matchup compared to a season long frequency of 72.1%. Geno averages 7.59 YPA and has a completion rate of 73.3% against zone coverage. Geno Smith threw for 254 passing yards and 1 TD in a matchup against the Cardinals a few weeks back.

Suggested Pick
“O” 250.5 Pass Yds (-125)

RB Kenneth Walker

Walker is averaging 54.2 rushing yards per game, an inefficient 3.74 YPC and has rushed for 7 TDs. His 3.74 YPC is the 4^th lowest amongst RBs with 100+ attempts. He has added valuable production in the receiving game, averaging 3.8 receptions and 27.1 receiving yards per game. The Cardinals allow the 13^th least rushing yards per game (117.3) as well as the 13^th least YPC (4.35). 69 of Walker’s attempts have come in shotgun, where he averages 4.19 YPC. That compares to 68 attempts under center, where he averages 3.46 YPC. The Cardinals allow the 13^th most YPC against shotgun runs (5.14), compared to the 10^th least YPC against under-center runs (3.67). In terms of the receiving angle, the Cardinals allow the 9^th most receiving yards to RB. When these teams played each other a couple weeks ago, the Cardinals played two-high a league high 73% of the time. Against two-high, Walker averages 1.59 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. Those are positive splits compared to 1.25 YPRR and 20% TPRR against single-high. The Cardinals also played zone coverage 83.3% of the time in this matchup compared to a season long frequency of 72.1%. Against zone, Walker averages 1.61 YPRR and 25% TPRR, compared to 0.82 YPRR and 11% TPRR against man.

Suggested Pick
“O” 18.5 Rec Yds (-115)
25+ Rec Yds (+142)
40+ Rec Yds (+425)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

JSN is averaging 69.1 receiving yards per game, 1.96 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 23.9%. The Cardinals allow the 10^th most receiving yards to WR on the season. Specifically, 11^th most to the slot (78.2 YPG), compared to 10^th least to out wide (91.5 YPG). JSN has lined up in the slot on 86% of his routes. On the season, the Cardinals play two-high 50.9% of the time, but interestingly played two-high at a league leading 73% of the time when these 2 teams matched up in week 12. Against two-high, JSN averages 2.11 YPRR, 22% TPRR, and has a 1^st-read rate of 22.2%. They also played zone coverage 83.3% of the time in this matchup compared to a season long frequency of 72.1%. Against zone coverage, JSN averages 1.73 YPRR and 18% TPRR. It’s also worth noting that JSN has outperformed DK since DK returned from injury. In the last 3 weeks, JSN is averaging 2.97 YPRR, 24% TPRR, but still only has a 1^st-read rate of 24.5%. His 1^st-read rate lags DK quite considerably in the past 3 weeks despite his outperformance. It will be interesting to see if the coaching staff makes JSN more of the focal point going forward.

Suggested Pick
“O” 62.5 Rec Yds (-120)

WR DK Metcalf

DK is averaging 76.3 receiving yards per game, 2.14 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He is 1^st on the team in 1^st-read rate at 28.8%. The Cardinals allow the 10^th most receiving yards to WR on the season. Specifically, 11^th most to the slot (78.2 YPG), compared to 10^th least to out wide (91.5 YPG). DK has lined up out wide on 85.2% of his routes. On the season, the Cardinals play two-high 50.9% of the time, but interestingly played two-high at a league leading 73% of the time when these 2 teams matched up in week 12. Against two-high, DK averages 2.25 YPRR, 20% TPRR and has a 1^st-read rate of 24.6%. They also played zone coverage 83.3% of the time in this matchup compared to a season long frequency of 72.1%. Against zone coverage, DK averages 2.11 YPRR and 22% TPRR. It’s also worth noting that JSN has outperformed DK since DK returned from injury. In the past 3 weeks, DK is averaging 2.07 YPRR compared to JSN’s 2.97. This is despite DK outpacing JSN in 1^st-read rate to a considerable degree, 37.7% to 24.5%. It’ll be interesting to see if the coaching staff draws up more designed looks for JSN going forward.

Suggested Pick
“U” 62.5 Rec Yds (-120)

TE Noah Fant

Fant is averaging 34.6 receiving yards per game, 1.30 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. He’ll face a Cardinals defense allowing the 12^th least receiving yards to opposing TEs. Fant has lined up in the slot on 54.6% of his routes and inline on 25.8%. The Cardinals allow the 11^th most receiving yards to the slot (78.2 YPG) and the 10^th most receiving yards to inline (30.3 YPG). On the season, the Cardinals play two-high 50.9% of the time, but interestingly played two-high at a league leading 73% of the time when these 2 teams matched up in week 12. Against two-high, Fant averages 1.41 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. They also played zone coverage 83.3% of the time in this matchup compared to a season long frequency of 72.1%. Against zone coverage, Fant averages 1.60 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes.

Suggested Pick
“U” 26.5 Rec Yds (-114)

Kyler Murray

Kyler averages 216.9 passing yards per game, 7.27 YPA and has thrown 13 TDs. He is also averaging 35.7 rushing yards per game. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that allows the 14^th fewest passing yards and the 15^th fewest passing TDs per game. The Seahawks are middle of the back in terms of pressure rate over expected, ranking 13^th. Since week 6, the Seahawks have run two-high 52.4% and are allowing the 5^th most fantasy points per drop back in this formation. Their zone vs man frequency is around league average, at 62% to 32.1% respectively. The Seahawks are forcing the 5^th lowest average depth of target (7.1), meaning they are forcing underneath throws as opposed to getting beat with the deep ball. The Seahawks also allow the 6^th fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs. Kyler averages 7.08 YPA, has a 70.5% completion percentage and has a QB rating of 95.8 against two-high. That compares to 7.47 YPA, a 66.9% completion rate and a QB rating of 93.7 against single-high. Kyler has positive splits against zone coverage, averaging 8.04 YPA, a completion rate of 73.5% and a QB rating of 98.5. That compares to 5.79 YPA, a 57.1% completion rate and a QB rating of 74.7 against man. Kyler threw for 285 yards vs the Seahawks in a low scoring game a few weeks back, now he gets his 2^nd chance playing in a dome.

Suggested Pick
“O” 220.5 Pass Yds (-114)
250+ Pass Yds (+188)
275+ Pass Yds (+350)

RB James Conner

Conner is averaging 64.4 rushing yards per game on 4.22 YPC and has rushed for 5 TDs. He’s also averaging 25.1 receiving yards per game. The Seahawks allow the 8^th most YPC (4.67) and the 12^th most rushing yards per game (127). They are also middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards allowed to RB, allowing the 13^th most. The Seahawks specifically struggle stopping man/gap run concepts, allowing the 4^th highest success rate (57.1%). That compares to a 48.4% success rate against zone concepts, ranking in the middle of the pack. Conner runs most of the time in man/gap concepts, 71% of his attempts and averages 4.25 YPC compared to 4.02 YPC in zone concept runs. It’s interesting Conner only ran the ball 7 times for 8 rushing yards in the first matchup, as the Seahawks completely took away the Cardinals rushing attack. We’ll see if the Cardinals try to establish this early at home. Conner averages 80.7 rushing yards per game at home compared to only 48.2 rushing yards away.

Suggested Pick
“O” 62.5 Rush Yds (-115)

WR Marvin Harrison Jr

Marvin is averaging 50.5 receiving yards per game, 1.84 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team behind McBride in 1^st-read rate at 27.6%. The Seahawks allow the 10^th least receiving yards to WR but the 13^th most receptions. Marvin has lined up out wide on 72.7% of his routes and in the slot on 27.3%. The Seahawks allow the 12^th fewest receiving yards to wide alignment and the 8^th most to the slot. The Seahawks top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 and Cover 1, which they run 27.7% and 23.9% of the time respectively. Marvin has positive splits against these 2 coverages, averaging 2.25 YPRR, 26% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 29.5%. When these two teams matched up a few weeks back, the Seahawks ran two-high at a 55.8% frequency. This has been a theme against the Cardinals as defenses try to take away Marvin’s deep ball ability. Against two-high, Harrison has negative splits, averaging 1.45 YPRR and targeted on 20% of his routes. The Seahawks are forcing the 5^th lowest average depth of target (7.1), meaning they are forcing underneath throws as opposed to getting beat with the deep ball. Marvin has the highest aDOT from the starters at 15.1.

Suggested Pick
“U” 52.5 Rec Yds (-109)

WR Michael Wilson

Wilson is averaging 34.7 receiving yards per game, 1.25 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. He is 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 18.0%. The Seahawks allow the 10^th least receiving yards to WR but the 13^th most receptions. Wilson has lined up out wide on 69.9% of his routes and in the slot on 30.1%. The Seahawks allow the 12^th fewest receiving yards to wide alignment and the 8^th most to the slot. The Seahawks top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 and Cover 1, which they run 27.7% and 23.9% of the time respectively. Wilson has a slight increase in production against these 2 coverages, averaging 1.30 YPRR on identical volume, 17% TPRR. When these two teams matched up a few weeks back, the Seahawks ran two-high at a 55.8% frequency. This has been a theme against the Cardinals as defenses try to take away Marvin’s deep ball ability. Against two-high, Wilson has negative splits averaging 1.21 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. The Seahawks are forcing the 5^th lowest average depth of target (7.1), meaning they are forcing underneath throws as opposed to getting beat with the deep ball. Wilson has a 10.7 aDOT, 2^nd highest behind Marvin Harrison.

Suggested Pick
“O” 27.5 Rec Yds (-113)
40+ Rec Yds (+182)

TE Trey McBride

McBride leads the Cardinals in receiving, averaging 71 yards per game, 2.42 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. He has the highest 1^st-read rate on the Cardinals at 32.0%. The Seahawks allow the 12^th most receiving yards and 11^th most receptions to opposing TEs. McBride has lined up in the slot on 51.7% of his routes and inline on 41.5%. The Seahawks allow the 8^th most receiving yards to the slot but the 4^th least to inline. The Seahawks top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 and Cover 1, which they run 27.7% and 23.9% of the time respectively. McBride has positive splits against these 2 coverages, averaging 2.8 YPRR on an identical 27% TPRR overall. Against two-high, McBride has negative production splits averaging 2.05 YPRR on identical volume (27% TPRR). The Seahawks are forcing the 5^th lowest average depth of target (7.1), meaning they are forcing underneath throws as opposed to getting beat with the deep ball. McBride has the lowest aDOT out of the starters at 6.2, this is a bullish matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 66.5 Rec Yds (-121)
80+ Rec Yds (+170)
90+ Rec Yds (+265)
Anytime TD (+200)

These 2 teams met 2 weeks ago, with the Seahawks winning 16 to 6. That game was in Seattle, now Arizona gets to play at home in their dome. However, the Cardinals are trending down, losing 2 straight, while the Seahawks have quietly put together 3 straight wins. The Seahawks have historically had the Cardinals number, winning 5 straight back to 2022. These have historically been low scoring games, with 4 of last 5 matchups going under this total. I expect another low scoring close game, which favors taking the underdog with points.

Best Bet (Seahawks +3.5 -145)
Lean (Under 44.5 -110)
Seahawks 23 Cardinals 20

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Cardinals) Trey McBride +200
McBride is 2^nd in the league in receiving yards for TEs, averaging 71 YPG. However, he has yet to have a receiving TD. McBride has 7 redzone targets in the past 4 weeks, after only 4 in the entire season prior to that. Love his chances to break that streak against a divisional rival and a Seahawks defense allowing 0.25 receiving TDs per game to TE.

Longshot: (Seahawks) Zach Charbonnet +390
Charbonnet’s snap share has trended up in the past 4 weeks (25% -> 32% -> 38% -> 45%). He’s seen 3 redzone carries in the past 2 weeks and was able to convert on 1 last week. That compares to 3 total redzone carries for the entire season prior to the past 2 weeks. That includes 2 attempts in this same matchup against the Cardinals. Love the value here!

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Cardinals) James Conner +500
Conner was completely shut down and only ran for 8 rushing yards in this same matchup 2 weeks ago. Now he gets a game at home, where he’s night and day better, and I think the coaching staff makes it an emphasis to get the running game going. Love his chances as a guy with 5 TDs on the season.

Longshot: (Cardinals) Trey McBride +900
McBride has yet to score a receiving TD, but he has had an elite season anyway and his volume is massive. He’s gotten 7 redzone targets in the past 4 weeks, so if the Cardinals score first at home, love the chances for McBride to be the one to get in the endzone.

Parlay #1: (+385)

Kyler Murray O 220.5 Pass Yds
Trey McBride O 69.5 Rec Yds
Kenneth Walker III Over 19.5 Rec Yds

Parlay #2: (+847)
Kyler Murray 250+ Pass Yds
Trey McBride 80+ Rec Yds
Kenneth Walker III 25+ Rec Yds

Parlay #3: MEGA LOTTO (+3200)
Kyler Murray 275+ Pass Yds
Trey McBride Anytime TD
Kenneth Walker III 40+ Rec Yds

QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen is averaging 224.3 passing yards per game, 7.56 YPA and has thrown 20 TDs. He’s also averaging 27.8 rushing yards per game. He’ll face a Rams defense that is middle of the pack in passing yards allowed (234.8 YPG) and has allowed the 10^th most passing TDs per game (1.67). The Rams are middle of the pack in terms of blitz rate (26.1%) but have the 8^th highest pressure rate over expected. They have a balanced single-high vs two-high frequency rate, at 55.0% and 45% respectively. When running single-high, they allow the most fantasy points per drop back. They run zone coverage 73.1% of the time and man 23.2% of the time. Allen averages 7.71 YPA, has a 63.6% completion rate and a QB rating of 93.8 against single-high. That compares to 7.32 YPA, a 66.2% completion rate and a QB rating of 110.1 against two-high. In terms of man vs zone splits, Allen averages 7.83 YPA and has a 70% completion rate against zone, compared to 7.59 YPA and a 56.3% completion rate against man. Positive splits here as the Rams primarily run zone.

Suggested Pick
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (-115)
3+ Pass TDs (+300)

RB James Cook

Cook is averaging 63.9 rushing yards per game on 4.66 YPC and has added only 17.7 receiving yards per game in the passing game. The Rams are allowing the 5^th most rushing yards per game (144.2) and the 12^th most YPC (4.61). Despite being below average against the run, they have been good limiting explosive runs, with the 5^th lowest rate in the NFL (3.2%). They are middle of the pack in terms of rushing TDs allowed to opposing RBs (0.75 per game). Interestingly, the Rams allow the 2^nd fewest yards per carry to runs out of the shotgun (4.41) but the 7^th most when the QB is under center (4.26). 44 of Cook’s 151 attempts have come out of shotgun, where he averages 4.5 YPC. That compares to 105 of his carries with Josh Allen under center, where he’s been more efficient averaging 4.75 YPC. This is unusual as shotgun runs typically average more YPC than under center. The Rams have been gashed vs the run the past 2 weeks, allow Kamara to go for 112 rush yards and Saquon Barkley 255 rush yards. Good matchup here and positive splits for Cook’s style of running.

Suggested Pick
“O” 63.5 Rush Yds (-120)
80+ Rush Yds (+210)
90+ Rush Yds (+320)
100+ Rush Yds (+475)

WR Amari Cooper

Since the trade to the Bills, Amari averages 34 receiving yards per game, 2.00 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. He has only run a route on 50% of drop backs as it takes some time to learn the playbook and build chemistry with Josh. The Rams are allowing the 14^th least receiving yards to opposing WRs, but the 2^nd most TDs. As a member of the Bills, Amari has run 85.3% of his routes out wide. The Rams are allowing the 2^nd most YPRR against wide aligned WRs. The Rams have a balanced single-high vs two-high frequency rate, at 55.0% and 45% respectively. When running single-high, they allow the most fantasy points per drop back. Against single-high on the Bills, Amari averages 1.80 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. To be fair, this is only on 40 routes. This compares to 2.29 YPRR and an 11% TPRR on 28 routes against two-high. The Rams run zone coverage 73.1% of the time and man 23.2% of the time. On 46 routes as a member of the Bills, Amari averages 1.17 YPRR and has been targeted on 11% of his routes against zone.

Suggested Pick
Anytime TD (+200)
First TD Scorer (+1200)
Lean over but receiving lines not up

WR Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir is averaging 57.2 receiving yards per game, 2.45 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. In 4 games with Amari Cooper, he’s averaging 68 receiving yards per game. He has primarily run out of the slot, on 75.9% of his routes. The Rams are allowing the 14^th least receiving yards to opposing WRs, but the 2^nd most TDs. To slot in particular, the Rams are allowing the least receiving yards per game (55.8). The Rams have a balanced single-high vs two-high frequency rate, at 55.0% and 45% respectively. When running single-high, they allow the most fantasy points per drop back. Against single-high, Khalil averages 2.32 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. That compares to 2.63 YPRR and 28% TPRR against two-high. The Rams run zone coverage 73.1% of the time and man 23.2% of the time. Khalil has positive splits against zone, averaging 2.76 PRR and 32% TPRR. Not a great matchup for Khalil this week.

Suggested Pick
“U” 54.5 Rec Yds (-110)

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid hasn’t played since week 10, but indications are that he’s likely to return this week. He averages 35.6 receiving yards per game, 1.75 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. The Rams are allowing the 8^th most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. The Rams have a balanced single-high vs two-high frequency rate, at 55.0% and 45% respectively. When running single-high, they allow the most fantasy points per drop back. Against single-high, Kincaid averages 1.28 YPRR, has been targeted on 26% of his routes and has a 1^st-read rate of 18.6%. That compares to 2.4 YPRR, 29% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 20.9% against two-high. The Rams run zone coverage 73.1% of the time and man 23.2% of the time. Against zone, Dalton averages 1.83 YPRR, 25% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 18.2%. That compares to 1.57 YPRR, 30% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 20.9% against man.

Suggested Pick
LINE NOT UP

QB Matthew Stafford

Stafford is averaging 248.6 passing yards per game, 7.29 YPA and has 17 passing TDs. When he has both Puka and Cooper, he averages 272.6 passing yards per game. He’ll face a Bills defense that allows the 7^th least passing yards and 1.33 passing TDs per game. The Bills run two-high at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (55.6%) and run zone at the 7^th highest rate in the NFL (74.1%). Stafford averages 6.93 YPA, a 69.9% completion rate and a QB rating of 100.6 against two-high. That compares to 7.58 YPA, a 62.8% completion rate and an 89 QB rating against single-high. Looking at man vs zone splits, Stafford averages 7.84 YPA, has a 75.2% completion rate and a 98.1 QB rating against zone. That compares to 7.18 YPA, a 53.4% completion rate and a QB rating of 86.5 against man. The Bills have the 3^rd lowest blitz rate in the NFL (17.6%). Stafford is surprisingly better against the blitz, averaging 8.21 YPA and has a QB rating of 100.8. That compares to 6.85 YPA and a QB rating of 91.0 when he is not blitzed. Overall, not a great matchup for Stafford.

Suggested Pick
“U” 249.5 Pass Yds (-117)

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren is averaging 77.2 rushing yards per game on 4.17 YPC. He’s scored 10 rushing TDs on the season. He also has the 2^nd lowest explosive run rate amongst RBs with 100+ carries (2.3%), only ahead of Kareem Hunt. He’s producing off pure volume. The Bills allow the 3^rd most YPC (4.93) and 37.4% of yards against them have come from explosive runs (3^rd highest). With Kyren not being an explosive running back and more of a grinder, this may limit his upside in an otherwise positive matchup. The Bills struggle more against man/gap concepts, allowing 5.19 YPC compared to 4.31 YPC against zone concepts. Kyren has a 57.9% success rate in man/gap concepts, compared to only a 47.2% success rate in zone concepts, he may be able to take advantage of the Bills weakness as this is a strength of his. Despite being weak against the run on a yardage basis, the Bills allow the 7^th least rushing TDs to opposing RBs. Another key statistic to note is that the Bills are allowing the 2^nd most receiving yards to opposing RBs. However, Kyren has not been much of a threat in the passing game, only averaging 12.1 receiving yards per game on 2.4 targets. A risky bet but may offer upside.

Suggested Pick
“O” 69.5 Rush Yds (-110)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka is averaging 78 receiving yards per game, 3.14 YPRR and has been targeted on 35% of his routes. He is behind Kupp in 1^st-read rate at 28.7%. The Bills allows the 5^th least receiving yards to WR (126.42 YPG) as well as the 4^th least TDs (0.67). Puka has run 73.6% of his routes from out wide this season. The Bills allow the least receiving yards per game to wide aligned receivers (68.8). The Bills run two-high at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (55.6%) and run zone at the 7^th highest rate in the NFL (74.1%). Against two-high, Puka has vastly negative splits, averaging 1.73 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. Against zone, Puka has negative splits averaging 2.88 YPRR and has been targeted on 34% of his routes. Based on the Bills defensive scheme, I like Cooper over Puka in this matchup.

Suggested Pick
“U” 78.5 Rec Yds (-115)

WR Cooper Kupp

Puka is averaging 70.6 receiving yards per game, 2.20 YPRR and has been targeted on 31% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 36%. The Bills allows the 5^th least receiving yards to WR (126.42 YPG) as well as the 4^th least TDs (0.67). Kupp has ran 66.1% of his routes from the slot this year. The Bills have allowed the 8^th most receiving yards per game to the slot (83.7). The Bills run two-high at the 4^th highest rate in the NFL (55.6%) and run zone at the 7^th highest rate in the NFL (74.1%). Against two-high, Kupp has positive splits averaging 2.56 YPRR and has been targeted on 32% of his routes. Against zone, Kupp also has positive splits averaging 2.43 YPRR and an identical 31% TPRR. Based on the Bills defensive scheme, I like Cooper over Puka in this matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 67.5 Rec Yds (-115)
80+ Rec Yds (+150)
90+ Rec Yds (+220)
100+ Rec Yds (+320)

The Bills have been dominant as of late, covering the spread in 4 of L5. Josh Allen is having an MVP season, and I expect him to continue to find success against this Rams defense. The big difference between these 2 teams is their defenses, and I think the Bills strong pass defense will be enough to cover the 3.5 point spread. I expect the Bills to get out to an early lead, and the Rams to put up some garbage time touchdowns, positioning this game to go over. Could be a shootout with these 2 offenses!

Best Bet (Bills -2.5 -145)
Lean (Over 49.5 +100)
Bills 30 Rams 20

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Bills) James Cook -112
With James Cook primarily running when Josh Allen is under-center and the Rams weakness against these runs compared to out of shotgun, I love Cook to feast in the running game. He has a TD in 73% of games this season and has a positive matchup to do so again against the Rams.

Longshot: (Bills) Amari Cooper +200
The Rams allow the 2^nd most TDs to wide receivers as well as the 2^nd most YPRR against wide aligned receivers, where Amari primarily lines up. This is bullish for Amari and bearish for their slot guy Khalil Shakir. Love the value here for Amari to find the end zone.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Bills) James Cook +550

James Cook has 3 TDs in the 1^st quarter this season, and with the Bills being 3.5-point favorites, I like James to be the first to find the endzone. The Rams have allowed Alvin Kamara to run for 112 yards and Saquon Barkley to run for 255 and 2 TDs the past 2 weeks.

Longshot: (Bills) Amari Cooper +1200
Amari has only seen about a 50% snap share the past few weeks as he learns the Bills playbook and gains a connection with Josh Allen, but this feels like a nice spot to get him going as the Rams allow the 2^nd most TDs per game to WR but allow the fewest receiving yards to the slot. That means Khalil should see a downgrade and Amari sees an upgrade. Love the value!

Parlay #1: (+465)
Josh Allen O 1.5 Pass TDs
Cooper Kupp O 66.5 Rec Yds
James Cook O 61.5 Rush Yds

Parlay #2: (+735)
James Cook O 61.5 Rush Yds
James Cook Anytime TD
Amari Cooper Anytime TD

Parlay #3: (+1400)
Josh Allen 3+ Pass TDs
Amari Cooper Anytime TD
Cooper Kupp Anytime TD

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert is averaging 212.6 passing yards per game, 7.59 YPA and has thrown 13 TDs. He’ll face a Chiefs defense that blitzes at the 3^rd highest rate (35.7%) but is middle of the pack in terms of pressure rate over expected. Herbert has positive splits against the blitz, averaging 8.63 YPA and has a QB rating of 106.8, compared to 7.24 YPA and a QB rating of 95.2 when not blitzed. The Chiefs allow 235.25 passing yards and 1.42 passing TDs per game (both middle of pack). The Chiefs run the 6^th highest rate of man (35.3%) and the 3^rd highest rate of two-high (60.1%). These teams matched up week 4, and the Chiefs ran man 44.8% of the time and two-high 51.7%. Herbert averages 7.27 YPA and has a 96.4 QB rating against two-high, compared to 7,84 YPA and a QB rating of 99.6 against single-high. In terms of the man vs zone split, Herbert has struggled against man. He averages 6.09 YPA, a completion rate of 48% and a QB rating of 77.6 against man, compared to 8.41 YPA, 71.3% completion rate and a QB rating of 106.6 against zone. Expect the Chiefs to lean more into man as they did earlier in the season, as Herbert has negative splits. His top option Ladd has been limited in practice the past few days, dealing with a multitude of injuries. If he can ultimately not go, this would further downgrade this passing offense.

Suggested Pick
“U” 228.5 Pass Yds (-114)

RB Gus Edwards

Gus led the Chargers backfield once JK Dobbins went down with an injury, but it did not surmount to much volume. He only had 6 carries for 32 yards against the Falcons. Gus is currently averaging an inefficient 3.45 yards per carry and gets an extremely tough matchup against the Chiefs rush defense. The Chiefs allow the 2^nd least YPC (3.74) and the lowest explosive run rate allowed (2.1%). Gus has yet to have a rush attempt go for over 15 yards. The Chiefs are especially strong against zone concept runs, allowing the fewest YPC (3.34) and only a 36.6% success rate. That compares to 3.64 YPC and a 46.1% success rate allowed to man/gap concepts. Edwards has seen a 50-50 split between the 2 types of run concepts but has had better success in man/gap. He averages 3.76 YPC compared to 3.46 YPC in zone concepts. Rookie RB Kimani Vidal should also factor into the running game as he saw 4 carries for 20 yards last week.

Suggested Pick
“U” 34.5 Rush Yds (-114)

WR Ladd McConkey

Ladd has been excellent, as he leads the Chargers in receiving with 68.4 yards per game, 2.56 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 29.4%. He has been limited in practice this week, so check back in to make sure he is good to go come Sunday night. The Chiefs are allowing the 8^th fewest receiving yards to WR but the 8^th most TDs per game. Ladd has lined up in the slot on 72.6% of his routes. The Chiefs allow the most receiving yards per game (105 YPG) and the highest target share (39.6%) to the slot. The Chiefs run the 6^th highest rate of man (35.3%) and the 3^rd highest rate of two-high (60.1%). These teams matched up week 4, and the Chiefs ran man 44.8% of the time and two-high 51.7%. Ladd has positive splits against man, averaging 3.41 YPRR and 28% TPRR. He has negative splits against two-high, averaging 1.63 YPRR and 22% TPRR. If Ladd comes into this game a full go, I expect him to produce in a big way.

Suggested Pick
“O” 69.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Ladder lines not up
Anytime TD (+180)

WR Quentin Johnston

Quentin is averaging 36.6 receiving yards per game, 1.63 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. He continues to have issues with drops. He’ll face a Chiefs defense that allows the 8^th fewest receiving yards to WR but the 8^th most TDs per game. The Chiefs have been a slot funnel all season but have shut down wide aligned receivers. They allow the 4^th fewest receiving yards per game to wide alignment. Quentin has lined up out wide on 91.1% of his routes this season. The Chiefs run the 6^th highest rate of man (35.3%) and the 3^rd highest rate of two-high (60.1%). These teams matched up week 4, and the Chiefs ran man 44.8% of the time and two-high 51.7%. Quentin has negative splits against man, averaging only 0.50 YPRR. Against two-high, Quentin sees less volume (13% TPRR) but has been more productive with his looks averaging 1.85 YPRR. I’d fade Quentin in this tough matchup.

Suggested Pick
Line not up (lean unders)

TE Will Dissly

Dissly is averaging 1.90 YPRR, has been targeted on 24% of his routes and is 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 14.6%. Dissly has ran 31% of his routes from the slot and 51% from inline. The Chiefs allow the most receiving yards per game (105 YPG) and the highest target share (39.6%) to the slot. They also allow the 8^th most receiving yards (32 YPG) to inline. The Chiefs #1 weakness has been opposing TEs, as they allow 78.5 receiving yards per game to the position, most in the NFL. The Chiefs run the 6^th highest rate of man (35.3%) and the 3^rd highest rate of two-high (60.1%). These teams matched up week 4, and the Chiefs ran man 44.8% of the time and two-high 51.7%. Against two-high, Dissly has positive splits averaging 2.18 YPRR, 29% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 20.7%. Against man however, Dissly has negative splits. He averages 0.48 YPRR and has been targeted on only 18% of his routes.

Suggested Pick
Line not up (LADDER)

QB Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is averaging 248.3 passing yards per game, 6.98 YPA, and has thrown 19 TDs. He’s also averaging 19.3 rushing yards per game. The Chargers allow the 10^th fewest passing yards and the 9^th fewest passing TDs per game. The Chargers also allow the 9^th most rushing yards per game to QB. The Chargers play the 2^nd highest rate of two-high (60.3%) and the 3^rd highest rate of zone (78%). When they played each other in week 4, the Chargers ran two-high 67.6% of the time and zone 79.4%. Against two-high, Mahomes averages 6.50 YPA and has a 95.8 QB rating. That compares to 7.41 YPA and an 88.9 QB rating against single-high. Against zone, Mahomes averages 7.60 YPA and has a QB rating of 89.3. That compares to 6.95 YPA and a QB rating of 92.7 against man. It’s also worth noting that Mahomes has scrambled 12 times for 115 yards on 250 drop backs against single-high, compared to 16 scrambles for 137 yards on 237 drop backs against two-high.

Suggested Pick
“O” 246.5 Pass Yds (-114)
“O” 15.5 Rush Yds (-115)
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (+102)

RB Isaiah Pacheco

In Pacheco’s 1^st game back from injury, he saw a 37% snap share and carried the ball 7 times for 44 yards. It will be interesting to see what the split between him and Hunt will look like going forward. On a small 3 game sample size, Pacheco is averaging 4.37 YPC and has 1 rush TD. He’s also averaging 19.7 receiving yards per game. The Chargers allow the 10^th most YPC (4.64), the 14^th fewest rushing yards per game (119.4), and the 13^th fewest receiving yards to RB. They have also allowed the fewest rushing TDs per game to opposing RBs (0.25 per game). It’s hard to have a good read on how this backfield will shape up, so therefore I think it’s best to pass.

Suggested Pick
Pass

RB Kareem Hunt

In Pacheco’s 1^st game back from injury, Kareem Hunt saw a 38% snap share and rushed the ball 7 times for 15 yards. He also caught 2 of 4 targets for 0 yards. Prior to Pacheco’s return, Hunt was a bell cow. He was producing off pure volume, averaging 65.8 rushing yards per game on an inefficient 3.65 YPC. He has 5 rush TDs on the season. Last week, both Pacheco and Hunt saw 1 redzone carry a piece. The Chargers allow the 10^th most YPC (4.64), the 14^th fewest rushing yards per game (119.4), and the 13^th fewest receiving yards to RB. They have also allowed the fewest rushing TDs per game to opposing RBs (0.25 per game). If I were to guess, I’d expect Pacheco to gain more of the work as he gets further removed from his injury, but it’s tough to tell in Pacheco’s 2^nd game back.

Suggested Pick
Pass

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Since joining the Chiefs, Hopkins is averaging 54.2 receiving yards per game, 2.23 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He only has a 53.1% route rate, but that number increased to 63.5% last week. The Chargers are middle of the pack in yardage allowed to opposing WRs (145.83 YPG). They are allowing the 10^th most receiving TDs to WR. DHop has lined up out wide on 69.2% of his routes. The Chargers are allowing the 11^th fewest receiving yards per game to wide alignment and the 13^th most to the slot. The Chargers play the 2^nd highest rate of two-high (60.3%) and the 3^rd highest rate of zone (78%). When they played each other in week 4, the Chargers ran two-high 67.6% of the time and zone 79.4%. Against two-high, Hopkins has negative splits averaging 1.26 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. That compares to 2.94 YPRR and 26% TPRR against single-high, negative splits. Against zone, Hopkins has been more productive on similar volume averaging 2.51 YPRR and 23% TPRR. That compares to 2.33 YPRR and 25% TPRR against man.

Suggested Pick
“O” 40.5 Rec Yds (-117)
“O” 3.5 Rec (-135)

WR Xavier Worthy

Worthy is averaging 33.9 receiving yards per game, 1.19 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. He has the highest aDOT out of the starters at 11.9, being used as the deep threat. Teams typically try to take this away from the Chiefs and Mahomes, so his volume has been low. The Chargers are middle of the pack in yardage allowed to opposing WRs (145.83 YPG). They are allowing the 10^th most receiving TDs to WR. Worthy has lined up out wide on 65.7% of his routes. The Chargers are allowing the 11^th fewest receiving yards per game to wide alignment and the 13^th most to the slot. The Chargers play the 2^nd highest rate of two-high (60.3%) and the 3^rd highest rate of zone (78%). When they played each other in week 4, the Chargers ran two-high 67.6% of the time and zone 79.4%. Against two-high, Worthy has negative splits averaging 1.05 YPRR and has been targeted on 12% of his routes. That compares to 1.34 YPRR and 23% TPRR against single-high. Against zone, Worthy has negative splits averaging 1.09 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. That compares to 1.64 YPRR and 27% TPRR against man. Worthy has gained some consistency over the past few weeks, with over 40+ receiving yards in 3-straight.

Suggested Pick
“O” 35.5 Rec Yds (-114)

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce is averaging 53.1 receiving yards per game, 1.67 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate without Rashee Rice at 26.3%. The Chargers play the 2^nd highest rate of two-high (60.3%) and the 3^rd highest rate of zone (78%). When they played each other in week 4, the Chargers ran two-high 67.6% of the time and zone 79.4%. Against two-high, Kelce has negative splits averaging 1.09 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. That compares to 2.22 YPRR and 30% TPRR against single-high. Against zone, Kelce has negative splits averaging 1.53 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. That compares to 2.17 YPRR and 26% TPRR against man. In terms of pre-snap alignment, Kelce has lined up all over. His top 2 alignments are slot and inline at 43.8% and 29.4% respectively. The Chargers allow the 13^th most receiving yards to the slot and the 17^th most to inline. Kelce has found success historically against his division rival, averaging 121 receiving yards and 1 TD per game over his last 6 matchups. That includes 7 receptions for 89 yards earlier this season.

Suggested Pick
“O” 57.5 Rec Yds (-115)
70+ Rec Yds (+192)
80+ Rec Yds (+305)
90+ Rec Yds (+460)
100+ Rec Yds (+680)

The Chiefs come into this game 11-1 and the Chargers are 8-4. Chiefs have had luck go their way the past few weeks, but overall, I think their defense and Patrick Mahomes will lead them to a victory this week. From a calendar perspective, this is when Mahomes has historically been at his best, and the Chiefs are at home. The Chiefs have not been as high scoring as they have been in years past, and it’s really been their defense that has driven them to their success. I just think they have a better roster from top to bottom and think they will win by more than a field goal.

Best Bet: (Chiefs -2.5 -145)
Lean: (Under 42.5 -120)
Chiefs 21 Chargers 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce +155
Kelce has 4 TDs in his last 3 matchups against the Chargers. This time of year, is when we typically see the best version of Mahomes and Kelce. He’s seen 2 and 3 redzone targets in the past 2 games, I like them to convert on one this week.

Longshot: (Chiefs) Xavier Worthy +340

Worthy scored a TD vs the Chargers in their matchup earlier this season, and he seems to be getting more consistent as the season goes on. Primetime game, Sunday night, I could see Andy Reid draw up a deep shot, or an end around for their young speedster.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (Chiefs) Travis Kelce +700
Kelce has seen a ton of targets early in the game, as he averages 35.6 receiving yards in the 1^st half, compared to 12.1 in the 2^nd half. Both of his TDs this season came in the 1^st quarter. Love the Kelce and Mahomes connection to heat up this time of the year.

Longshot: (Chiefs) Xavier Worthy +1500
Worthy is a speedster and has been used in some trick plays for Andy Reid. Coach Reid loves to bring out a trick play in primetime games, and what better time than against a division rival on Sunday night football. I could see a 1^st drive end-around or deep ball to Worthy.

Parlay #1: (+492)
Travis Kelce O 54.5 Rec Yds
Gus Edwards U 31.5 Rush Yds
Patrick Mahomes O 17.5 Rush Yds

Parlay #2: (+1087)
Travis Kelce 70+ Rec Yds
Travis Kelce Anytime TD
Patrick Mahomes 25+ Rush Yds

Parlay #3: Longshot (+4567)
Xavier Worthy 1^st TD Scorer
Xavier Worthy O 35.5 Rec Yds
Patrick Mahomes 25+ Rush yds

Bears: 5-6 (2nd in AFC East)

 
QB Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams steps into a new chapter as the Bears move forward without head coach Matt Eberflus, whose questionable decisions marred last week's game. With Thomas Brown now taking the reins, the focus on quick-release passing is likely to remain a priority for the young quarterback. However, this week presents a daunting challenge against a well-rounded San Francisco 49ers defense. The 49ers rank 15th in pass rush, a respectable position but one that has room for improvement, likely influenced by Nick Bosa’s lingering health issues. Their secondary, however, is among the league’s elite, ranked 2nd overall by Pro Football Focus. This stout pass defense is allowing just 201.3 receiving yards per game (29th fewest in the NFL) and only 6.7 yards per attempt (27th fewest). Opposing quarterbacks have struggled to find success, with San Francisco permitting a passer rating of just 84.2 (26th lowest) and a completion percentage of 63.8% (23rd lowest). They deploy a balanced mix of man and zone coverage, keeping offenses guessing and limiting big-play opportunities. Despite the tough matchup, Caleb Williams has shown flashes of promise, recording 20+ completions and 200+ passing yards in four of his last five games. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games and has avoided interceptions in six straight contests, a testament to his poise. However, the 49ers' defense excels at generating pressure, forcing turnover-worthy plays at the 10th-highest rate in the league (3.6%). Williams will need to remain sharp to maintain his streak of clean games. Complicating matters are the Bears' offensive injuries, with D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift listed as questionable, and Keenan Allen appearing hobbled at times last week. If these key playmakers are limited or unavailable, it will put even more pressure on Williams to elevate the offense. In this matchup, expect the Bears to emphasize a short-passing attack to mitigate San Francisco’s pass rush. However, against one of the league’s most disciplined defenses, consistent success may be hard to come by. Williams will need to rely on his quick decision-making and accuracy, but this game has all the makings of a tough outing for the rookie quarterback.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 22.5 Pass Completions -135

RB D’Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift enters Week 13 as a question mark, officially listed as questionable due to injury. Even if he suits up, his workload is uncertain, as he was limited to just 11 carries in last week’s game despite handling every running back rushing attempt. With his health and potential volume in question, Swift is a risky option, albeit in a matchup that does present some opportunities. The 49ers’ run defense has been inconsistent, ranked 29th by Pro Football Focus despite allowing just the 18th most rushing yards per game (120). They excel at limiting explosive plays, permitting only a 4% explosive run rate, but they have struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone, allowing a league-high touchdown rate of 5.8%. Where Swift might find value is in the passing game. San Francisco’s defense has been vulnerable to receiving backs, giving up the 14th most receiving yards and 13th most receptions per game to the position. However, the 49ers have only allowed two receiving touchdowns to running backs this season, suggesting they can limit damage in the red zone. If active, Swift’s dual-threat ability could be the Bears’ best chance to exploit these weaknesses, particularly in the receiving game where he’s shown consistent effectiveness this season. If Swift is unable to go, Travis Homer is expected to step into the lead role, as Roschon Johnson is sidelined with a concussion. Homer profiles as a pass-catching back, which could make his receiving or combined rushing and receiving props the more appealing play rather than focusing solely on ground production. This matchup hinges on Swift’s availability and usage. While the 49ers pose a challenge, their vulnerabilities against receiving backs and in short-yardage scoring situations present avenues for production if the Bears can effectively scheme Swift—or his backup Homer—into advantageous situations.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 13.5 Receiving Yards -110 (if he plays and is a full go)

WR DJ Moore

DJ Moore's availability for this week against the 49ers remains uncertain, as he is currently listed as questionable. If he plays, Moore has proven to be a reliable option for Caleb Williams in recent weeks, especially since Thomas Brown's promotion to offensive coordinator. The shift in play-calling under Brown has had a notable impact on Moore's usage and production. Before Brown's promotion, Moore’s reception totals were inconsistent—5, 4, 2, 4, and 3 over five games. However, in the last three weeks with Brown at the helm, Moore has recorded 7, 7, and 8 receptions. This change stems from a strategic adjustment to involve Moore more in the short and intermediate passing game. Rather than relying on deep shots, the Bears have prioritized quick passes to get the ball in Moore’s hands and allow him to generate yards after the catch (YAC). Despite this improved usage, Moore faces a challenging matchup against the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense has been outstanding at limiting outside receivers, where Moore lines up approximately 75% of the time. The 49ers rank 31st in receiving yards per game allowed to outside receivers and 25th in catch rate, indicating their effectiveness in coverage. Additionally, they rank 19th in limiting yards after contact per reception, further complicating Moore's ability to create YAC opportunities. Given Moore's questionable health status and the 49ers’ ability to contain receivers like him, this matchup poses significant challenges. While Moore’s recent role suggests potential for volume, the unfavorable matchup and his uncertain availability make it difficult to confidently back his overs in this game.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 58.5 Receiving Yards -110

WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen enters this matchup against the 49ers as a pivotal target for Caleb Williams and a consistent contributor in the Bears' passing game. Spending about 55% of his routes in the slot, Allen benefits from matchups against defenses that are less effective in defending that area. The 49ers’ defense has been moderately vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the 18th most receiving yards per game to the position. However, they rank just 27th in catch rate against slot targets and are strong at limiting yards after the catch, ranking 22nd in YAC per reception. Allen’s ankle injury, which limited him earlier in the week, seems to be behind him as he logged full practices on both Thursday and Friday. This suggests he should be close to full strength for Sunday’s game. Over the past several weeks, Allen has been a reliable option for Williams, logging 7+ targets in five of the last six games and securing 5+ receptions in four of the last five. He has also surpassed 40 receiving yards in four straight games, showcasing his consistent production even when dealing with injury concerns. While Allen’s receiving yardage prop may be a bit ambitious given the 49ers’ overall defensive strength, his receptions prop (likely to open around 4.5) could present a solid opportunity. Given his role as a primary outlet in the Bears’ offense, particularly in short and intermediate routes, Allen is positioned to remain a high-volume option in this game. However, the challenge posed by San Francisco’s tight coverage and tackling ability could limit his upside after the catch.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (when it opens)

WR Rome Odunze

Rome Odunze, the Bears' rookie wide receiver, has experienced a fluctuating season characterized by sporadic big-play production. While he has surpassed 40 receiving yards just three times this year, each of those performances resulted in 65+ yards, highlighting his potential for explosive plays when involved. However, Odunze primarily operates as an outside receiver, aligning there for approximately 65% of his routes. This creates a challenging scenario against a 49ers defense that has been effective at limiting outside wideouts. San Francisco ranks near the top of the league in limiting receiving yards and catch rates to perimeter receivers, making this a tough matchup for Odunze to break out. Given his inconsistent usage and the unfavorable matchup against a disciplined 49ers defense, Odunze’s outlook for this game is not promising. The combination of his volatility and the difficult defensive assignment makes him a difficult player to back with confidence in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 45.5 Receiving Yards -115

TE Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet has been a consistent, albeit lower-volume, contributor for the Bears' offense in recent weeks. He has recorded 3+ targets in each of his last four games and 3+ receptions in three of those contests, maintaining a steady but modest role in the passing game. However, this week’s matchup against the 49ers presents significant challenges for Kmet. San Francisco has been one of the league's best defenses against tight ends, allowing the 6th fewest receptions per game and the 4th fewest receiving yards to the position. While they have conceded three touchdowns to tight ends this season, their overall ability to limit production in this area makes this a tough spot for Kmet. Given the unfavorable matchup and Kmet’s lack of a high-volume role in the Bears’ offense, this appears to be a fade scenario. While he remains a reliable short-yardage target, the combination of his limited involvement and the 49ers' strength in defending tight ends significantly reduces his upside for this game.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 33.5 Receiving Yards -110

49ers: 8-3 (3rd in NFC North)

QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy steps into a matchup against the Bears with some intriguing dynamics at play. With San Francisco no longer guaranteed to dominate time of possession and game script, Purdy may need to rely more on his arm in this contest. His recent passing consistency stands out: excluding last week's snow-affected game, Purdy has thrown for 200+ yards in 9 of his last 10 outings. His passing yardage line of 228.5 this week feels modest given his typical volume and efficiency. The Bears have quietly been a solid pass defense this season, ranking 22nd in passing yards allowed per game and posting strong metrics in opponent passer rating (85.7, 23rd highest) and completion percentage (62.7%, 26th highest). However, the style of their coverage could play into Purdy’s strengths. Chicago plays zone coverage 74% of the time, the 8th highest rate in the league. Against zone, Purdy has excelled, boasting a 72.5% completion rate, a 99.4 passer rating, and a low turnover-worthy throw rate of 1.5%. In contrast, Purdy has struggled more against man coverage, with just a 55% completion rate, a 74.6 passer rating, and a 5% turnover-worthy throw rate. Given Chicago’s preference for zone, Purdy could find himself in a more favorable environment to operate efficiently. While the Bears' defensive numbers suggest they can limit big games from opposing quarterbacks, Purdy's ability to dissect zone coverage and his consistency in throwing for 200+ yards make him a strong candidate to exceed expectations. The matchup sets up well for him to bounce back and potentially surpass his passing line, provided game flow doesn’t skew too heavily toward the run.

Suggest Picks
‘O’ 226.5 Passing Yards -110
‘O’ 16.5 Rushing Yards -110

RB Isaac Guerendo

Isaac Guerendo steps into the spotlight this week as the presumed lead back for the 49ers, with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both sidelined on injured reserve. While Guerendo’s opportunity is significant, questions remain about his readiness to handle a workhorse role. A converted wide receiver who served as a backup running back in college, Guerendo has impressed at times with his 5.9 yards per carry average, but transitioning to lead duties in the NFL is a significant leap. Even 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has acknowledged Guerendo is still adjusting to the demands of pro-level running. The matchup against the Bears is favorable on paper. Chicago has allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game this season (135.2) and ranks poorly in several key metrics, including the 4th highest yards per carry (4.88) and the 6th highest explosive run rate (6.3%). Guerendo’s speed and ability to generate chunk plays could allow him to take advantage of these weaknesses, especially since the Bears rank 15th in success rate against zone runs, a scheme the 49ers utilize heavily (30 zone runs compared to 10 man/gap runs for Guerendo). However, there are reasons to approach this situation cautiously. Guerendo’s rushing line of 73.5 reflects an expectation of significant volume, but his inexperience as the primary back raises doubts about his ability to sustain efficiency in a heavier workload. Additionally, the 49ers may employ a committee approach, with other backs, such as Patrick Taylor Jr., potentially eating into Guerendo’s touches (and possibly Deebo). While the Bears’ defensive metrics suggest a good matchup, the uncertainty surrounding Guerendo’s role and performance as a lead back makes this a challenging scenario to predict. If the 49ers opt for a balanced approach, spreading carries among their backs, Guerendo’s production may fall short of expectations despite the favorable conditions. For bettors or fantasy managers, the variability in workload and efficiency makes this a high-risk, high-reward play.

Suggested Picks
Anytime Touchdown Scorer -125

WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel enters this matchup against the Bears looking to snap a recent cold streak, having recorded under 25 receiving yards in three straight games. Part of his struggles can likely be attributed to lingering injuries, which have seemingly limited his effectiveness and versatility. Notably, Samuel has been absent from the 49ers' run game for the past three weeks, logging just one rushing attempt in that span—a significant departure from his dual-threat role when healthy. Despite the low yardage totals, Samuel’s involvement in the passing game has been steady. He’s seen 4+ receptions in two of his last three games and 5+ targets in two of those contests, suggesting that opportunities have been there, even if the production hasn’t followed. Across all coverages this season, Samuel has posted a respectable 18.6% target share, 13.97 yards per reception (YPR), and an impressive 8.03 yards after catch per reception (YAC/Rec). Against zone coverage—used by the Bears on 74% of their defensive snaps—his numbers remain consistent, with an 18.7% target share, 13.92 YPR, and 7.16 YAC/Rec. However, this week’s matchup presents some challenges. The Bears boast the 4th best tackling unit in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, and their disciplined zone scheme could limit Samuel’s ability to generate explosive plays after the catch. Given Samuel’s reliance on YAC for big gains, Chicago’s defensive style may neutralize one of his key strengths. If the 49ers can scheme Samuel into space, he still has the potential to make an impact. However, his recent form, combined with the Bears’ strong tackling and zone-heavy approach, suggests this could be another tough outing for him unless his usage dramatically shifts.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 4.5 Receptions -145

WR Jauan Jennings

Jauan Jennings has stepped up in games where Brandon Aiyuk has been unavailable, averaging an impressive 70 receiving yards per game, 6.3 receptions, and 8.5 targets in such scenarios when he’s stayed healthy. This week, he could again play a pivotal role as a versatile option for the 49ers’ passing attack. Jennings splits his time fairly evenly between the outside (55%) and the slot (45%), making him a flexible weapon depending on matchups. The Bears have been effective against slot receivers, allowing only 66.6 receiving yards per game from the position—the 26th most in the league. However, their defensive metrics reveal opportunities for Jennings to find success. Chicago has permitted the 8th highest catch rate to slot receivers and a relatively high average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.5 yards. This suggests that while they limit big yardage totals, they can be vulnerable to intermediate plays, particularly against reliable targets. With Deebo Samuel battling inconsistency and injuries, and Brandon Aiyuk out, Jennings looks like the healthiest and most consistent option among the 49ers’ receiving corps. His ability to exploit both inside and outside matchups gives him an edge, particularly if the Bears focus defensive resources on limiting other playmakers. Given his recent track record in games without Aiyuk and the Bears' tendency to allow efficiency over volume to slot receivers, Jennings could be a strong candidate for a productive day. He’s a solid option to target for overs in receiving props, especially if the 49ers need to lean on the passing game more than usual.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 54.5 Receiving Yards -110

TE George Kittle

George Kittle continues to be one of the most reliable and consistent tight ends in the league, providing a steady presence in the 49ers’ offense. Excluding last week's snow-impacted game, Kittle has recorded 4+ receptions in all but one game this season and has surpassed 40 receiving yards in each of those outings. His recent volume has been particularly impressive, with 6+ targets in six consecutive games before the weather-affected contest. This week, Kittle faces a Bears defense that has been moderately generous to opposing tight ends. Chicago allows the 14th most receiving yards per game to the position and the 20th most receptions, suggesting they aren’t entirely shut-down against TEs. Additionally, the Bears rank 10th in the league in forcing checkdowns, a factor that could work in Kittle’s favor, particularly if the 49ers emphasize short, high-percentage throws against Chicago’s disciplined zone coverage. Kittle’s red-zone production has also been stellar, with 8 touchdowns in 10 games this season. His ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities makes him a key weapon in San Francisco's passing attack, especially in situations where other offensive options are limited or facing challenging matchups. While tight ends can often be volatile in terms of fantasy and betting production, Kittle has been a model of consistency. Against a Bears defense that can be exploited in the short and intermediate passing game, Kittle is well-positioned for another strong performance. He remains a dependable option for overs in receptions, receiving yards, and anytime touchdown props.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -118

Can you imagine saying you like the Bears to cover a small spread or possibly win this game outright at the beginning of this season? I can’t. However, that’s exactly what I’m predicting here. Ultimately, I think this has a low scoring game written all over it. This 49ers team wants to run the ball and control the clock and the Bears defense should allow that. The Bears will get the new head coach boost and should get better late game management (can’t be worse, right?). The Bears have really shown life towards the end of games and we know that SF can struggle putting teams away, even at full health. I like a low scoring game here, where the Bears make it interesting late.

Best Bet: (Under 44.5 -125)
Lean: (CHI Bears +4.5)
Bears 23 49ers 20

Anytime Touchdow Picks

Best Pick Isaac Guerendo -125
As we’ve discussed, workload is hard to pinpoint for the 3rd string starter, but he does find himself in a nice matchup against a Bears team that is bottom 12 in defensive success against rushing attacks this season. He found the endzone last week and no reason he shouldn't this week as well.

Longshot Keenan Allen +250
Allen has struck for 3 TD’s in his last 2 games, including a 2-tuddy effort vs the Lions on Thanksgiving. He owns a very solid 23.7% red zone target share, only behind DJ Moore. With both Moore and Swift questionable, we might even get some nice CLV if one or both are ruled out.

1st Touchdown Picks

Best Bet George Kittle +900
Kittle has 8 touchdowns on the season and leads the team with a 27% redzone target share. The obvious choice is that SF runs one in, given CHI’s defense as a run funnel, but could easily be Kittle via the long pass or play action.

Longshot Caleb Williams +1600
We do not know who is going to be healthy in this game, but we do know Caleb will be. Williams has shown more of his rushing ability of late and has 3 red zone carries to show for it and SF has allowed 4 rushing touchdowns to QB’s so far this season.

Parlay #1 (+392)
CHI Bears +4.5
Isaac Guerendo TD
Total Under 54.5

Parlay #2 (+477)
Geroge Kittle TD
Brock Purdy over 229.5 Pass Yards
Jauan Jennings 50+ Rec Yards

Parlay #3 (+628)
CHI Bears ML
George Kittle 5+ Recs
Keenan Allen over 47.5 Rec Yards

QB Joe Burrow

The Bengals may be struggling to secure wins this season, but Joe Burrow’s performance remains a bright spot. Burrow has been on a tear recently, throwing for 3 or more touchdowns in each of his last four games and 2 or more in eight of his last ten. His yardage numbers are equally impressive, surpassing 200 yards in nine of his last ten games and eclipsing 300 yards in each of his last three. These statistics highlight his consistency and ability to deliver under pressure, even as Cincinnati’s offensive struggles persist.

One of the Bengals’ biggest challenges is their offensive line, which ranks 26th in pass-blocking efficiency according to Pro Football Focus. This could be a critical factor against the Dallas Cowboys, whose pass rush has regained form with the return of Micah Parsons to full health. Parsons and the Cowboys' front have been relentless over the past two weeks, which could spell trouble for a Bengals line that has struggled to protect its quarterback. Despite the pressure Burrow might face, this matchup offers opportunities to exploit weaknesses in the Cowboys’ secondary. Dallas ranks 26th in PFF’s coverage metrics and 24th in tackling, allowing 229.8 passing yards per game (18th in the league) and the 10th-highest completion percentage (66.9%). These vulnerabilities suggest Burrow could find success attacking downfield, provided he gets enough time to make his throws. Dallas mixes man and zone coverage at a league-average rate, so Burrow’s ability to read and react quickly will be key. The Cowboys have been opportunistic on defense, forcing at least one interception in each of their last four games. While Burrow threw a pick last week, his overall ball security this season has been stellar. He and Lamar Jackson lead the league in turnover-worthy throw rate among quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks, sitting at an impressive 1.1%. This careful decision-making should help Burrow mitigate the risk of turnovers in what could be a high-pressure game. Ultimately, Burrow’s success will depend on how well the Bengals’ offensive line can hold up against the Cowboys’ pass rush. If he gets adequate protection, his precision and ability to exploit a vulnerable secondary should allow him to continue his recent run of strong performances.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing TD’s -180
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions -117
‘O’ 270.5 Passing Yards -115

RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown has been a standout performer for the Bengals over the past four weeks, showcasing versatility and consistency. He has topped 70 rushing yards in three of those games while adding 30+ receiving yards in all four, surpassing 90 total yards in each contest. His dual-threat ability has been crucial for Cincinnati’s offense. This week, Brown faces a struggling Dallas run defense ranked 30th by PFF. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (147.6), the fifth-highest yards per carry (4.87), and the fourth-highest explosive run rate (6.6%). While they’ve improved recently, those performances came against a depleted Giants team and a Washington squad that lost its starting running back early. Dallas has also surrendered the league’s highest touchdown rate on the ground (5.8%) while generating the third-lowest stuff rate (36.4%). This bodes well for Brown, especially if the Bengals find themselves in a positive game script. Brown runs a mix of zone (60-70%) and man/gap schemes, an important factor since Dallas ranks third-worst in success rate against man/gap runs. With his recent form and this highly favorable matchup, Brown is well-positioned for another productive game.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 100.5 Rushing + Receiving -115

WR Ja’Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase continues to solidify his status as one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL. Over his last five games, Chase has been a model of consistency, recording at least six receptions and nine targets in each contest. He has also posted 75 or more receiving yards in each of his last three games, highlighting his ability to produce big numbers even when defenses focus on him. His explosiveness with the ball in his hands is unmatched, as he leads the league in yards after catch (YAC) with 549 and ranks sixth in YAC per reception (6.95). This pairs intriguingly with a Dallas defense that has allowed the second-highest YAC per reception (6.60), presenting a prime opportunity for Chase to thrive. Another compelling angle is Chase’s knack for big plays. He has exceeded his longest reception prop in each of his last three games and in seven of his last ten, showcasing his ability to stretch the field and create chunk plays. Chase’s versatility also plays a key role in his success. While he spends most of his snaps outside (63.2%), he lines up in the slot 34.5% of the time, allowing Cincinnati to move him around and exploit favorable matchups. Against this Dallas defense, the matchup appears favorable. The Cowboys allow the 15th most receiving yards per game to outside receivers (102.2) but rank near the bottom in slot production allowed, giving up the 28th most receiving yards per game (64.7). Adding to the intrigue, Dallas ranks 24th in tackling according to Pro Football Focus and allows the fourth-highest yards per target. With Chase’s ability to turn short catches into big gains, these weaknesses set up perfectly for another standout performance. This matchup against Dallas offers plenty of reasons to believe Chase will continue his impressive streak. Whether he’s beating defenders deep or generating yards after the catch, all signs point to another big day for one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 79.5 Receiving Yards -115
LR ‘O’ 25.5 Yards -120

WR Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins has quietly been a consistent force in the Bengals’ passing game, even with Ja’Marr Chase drawing much of the spotlight. Higgins has surpassed 60 receiving yards in each of his last six games, hitting 75+ yards in three of those contests. He’s also logged 5+ receptions and 8+ targets in five of his last six outings, showcasing a strong and steady involvement in the offense. Primarily lining up on the outside (~79%), Higgins benefits from a more favorable matchup against a Dallas defense that has struggled against outside receivers. His 26.2% target share this season actually edges out Chase’s 24.0%, highlighting his integral role in the Bengals’ passing attack. While Chase remains the preferred deep threat, Higgins has also been effective after the catch. His 2.75 yards after contact per reception outpaces even Chase’s numbers, emphasizing his ability to create extra yardage. With both receivers thriving in recent weeks, Higgins looks primed for another productive game against a Dallas secondary susceptible to big plays.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions -128
‘O’ 70.5 Receiving Yards -113

TE Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki has carved out a consistent role in the Bengals' passing game, holding an 11.7% target share, ranking third on the team. While his snap share has fluctuated—71%, 62%, and 44% over the last three games—he remains the team’s primary pass-catching tight end, averaging 4.2 receptions per game in his last five outings. However, this week’s matchup against the Dallas Cowboys presents a tough challenge. Dallas has allowed the 11th fewest receiving yards and 4th fewest receptions to tight ends this season. Additionally, their defense forces the lowest checkdown rate in the league at just 5.2%, limiting easy, short-yardage completions. Despite the difficult matchup, Gesicki has cleared his reception prop in four of his last five games. Given his involvement and a tempting 2.5-reception line at plus money, he still holds value for a modest receiving output, even against a stingy Dallas defense.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions +100

QB Cooper Rush

Cooper Rush has settled into the Cowboys’ starting role after a rocky debut, showing steady improvement in recent weeks. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 265 passing yards, 1.33 passing touchdowns, and just one interception. His efficiency and decision-making have kept Dallas competitive and opened the door for potential passing overs in this matchup. The Bengals’ defense has been a liability, ranking 28th in coverage and 27th in pass rush per PFF. They allow the 6th most passing yards per game (251), the 9th highest passer rating (98), and a 65.2% completion rate, placing them in the league's bottom half. Their defense has also surrendered the 2nd most points per game (28.3), which could lead to a pass-heavy approach if Dallas finds itself trailing. Given the likelihood of a negative game script against Cincinnati’s potent offense, Rush should see plenty of passing opportunities. His recent form combined with Cincinnati's defensive struggles makes his passing yardage and touchdown overs worth consideration.

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‘O’ 234.5 Passing Yards -114

RB Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle has firmly taken over as the Cowboys’ lead back, logging 19 and 22 carries in his last two outings. This increased workload has revitalized Dallas’ ground game, resulting in back-to-back performances of 85+ rushing yards and a touchdown in each contest. His ability to handle a full workload makes him a focal point for this matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s run defense, while not elite, ranks 19th per PFF and has shown vulnerability to physical backs. Recent performances against lead rushers underscore this: Najee Harris (16 carries for 75 yards, TD), J.K. Dobbins (11 for 56, 2 TDs), and Derrick Henry (16 for 68, TD) all found success. Dowdle’s running style, particularly in a zone-heavy scheme, aligns well with where the Bengals struggle most—they allow the 8th highest success rate against zone rushers. Additionally, Cincinnati's 7th lowest stuff rate (40.1%) and 6th highest rushing TD rate allowed (4.5%) suggest plenty of potential for Dowdle to keep producing. His recent workload and the Bengals’ defensive metrics point to another strong game for Dallas’ emerging workhorse.

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Anytime Touchdown +105

WR CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb’s availability against the Bengals remains uncertain as he deals with a lingering shoulder injury, marking his third consecutive week on the injury report. Despite the injury, Lamb has maintained steady volume as Dallas’ top receiving option, logging 5+ receptions in eight straight games before unexpectedly exiting last week’s contest midway through. However, Lamb’s downfield impact has diminished. His average depth of target (aDOT) has dropped in recent weeks, posting marks of 7.3, 3.8, and 7.3 yards, compared to his season-long average of 8.3. This suggests the Cowboys have leaned into shorter, safer throws, possibly to manage his injury and keep him involved. The matchup against Cincinnati is promising if Lamb is healthy enough to play. The Bengals rank poorly against the pass, allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game and the 11th highest yards per reception (11.32). They also struggle with yards after contact, giving up the 11th most (5.58 YAC/rec), an area where Lamb typically thrives. However, given his questionable status, Dallas’ fading playoff hopes, and last week’s unexpected benching, trusting Lamb for a strong outing feels risky. Proceed with caution based on his game-day status and potential snap limitations.

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PASS

WR Brandon Cooks

Brandon Cooks returned to action last week, logging a 39% snap share after missing time due to injury. While he wasn’t heavily involved, he managed three catches for 16 yards on seven targets. With an extra day of rest, his workload should increase, likely surpassing a 50% snap share this week. The matchup against the Bengals’ pass defense looks favorable. Cincinnati ranks 6th in most passing yards allowed per game and struggles to contain receivers in open space, giving up the 11th highest yards after contact per reception (5.58). If CeeDee Lamb remains limited or sidelined, Cooks could play a crucial role in Dallas’ passing attack alongside KaVontae Turpin. Given Cooks’ proven history as a dependable receiver and the likelihood of a pass-heavy game script, betting on him to clear 2.5 receptions seems like a solid play, especially if Dallas finds itself playing from behind.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions +102

WR KaVontae Turpin

KaVontae Turpin delivered a productive performance last week with four catches for 53 yards and an additional carry. His role in the Cowboys' offense remains unpredictable due to his heavy involvement in special teams, but his explosive playmaking ability makes him intriguing in a potential expanded role. Turpin’s increased usage came after CeeDee Lamb left the game and didn’t return, suggesting he could see more action if Lamb remains limited or out. The Bengals' defense struggles against big plays, allowing the 11th highest yards per reception (11.32) and yards after contact per reception (5.58). Given Turpin’s dual-threat potential as both a receiver and runner, his combined rushing and receiving yards might be worth considering, especially if the Cowboys lean on creative play-calling to maximize his speed and elusiveness.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson is set to return this week after missing two games due to a concussion. Given the nature of the injury and the time off, he should be at full capacity without any workload restrictions. Before his absence, Ferguson served as the Cowboys' second-most reliable receiving option when Dak Prescott was under center. While Cooper Rush has leaned on Luke Schoonmaker during Ferguson’s absence, Ferguson should seamlessly reclaim that role. The matchup against the Bengals looks promising. Cincinnati has struggled against tight ends, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards and receptions per game to the position. With the Cowboys likely facing a pass-heavy game script, Ferguson could see plenty of opportunities as a key short-to-intermediate target, making his receiving props an appealing play.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions +110

We could be in for another shootout with a couple of poor defenses in this one. This feels like the spot for CIN finally gets over the top, despite their defensive woes. However, that likely means they’ll have to score points. Rush has shown capable the past few weeks and the Cowboys actually found a rushing game. -5.5 is tough to lay with a team like CIN, so I like the teaser angle more.

Best Bet (2-Leg Teaser: CIN ML & ‘O’ 43.5 -110)
Lean (CIN -4.5 -125)
Bengals 30 Cowboys 23

Anytime Touchdown: 

Andrei Iosivas +500
He caught a touchdown last week and has 5 on the season, which is as many as Tee Higgins. He also holds a very solid 12% red zone target share as the 3rd WR in this offense.

Jake Ferguson +300
Fergy is back! He has yet to catch a touchdown pass this season, but remains highly involved in the red zone. CIN has allowed 8 touchdowns to opposing TE’s this season, which is second only to Carolina.

1st Touchdown: 

Chase Brown +420
Brown not only has a great matchup, but he is involved in multiple facets of the offense - rushing and passing game. He has a touchdown in 7 of his last 9 games and is the clear workhorse in this offense without Moss. Don’t overthink it!

Rico Dowdle +650
Speaking of workhorse, let’s go with the one on the other side too. Dowdle not only scored last week, but had 3 red zone rushing attempts, as well as 2 red zone targets, which was the most on the team. The Cowboys newfound success and commitment from the run game and Dowdle, in particular, still leaves some value here at this number.

Parlay #1 (+426)
CIN ML
Over 43.5
Chase Brown 2+ TD’s

Parlay #2 (+2470)
Chase Brown 2+ TD’s
Rico Dowdle 2+ TD’s

Parlay #3 (+3848)
CIN -6.5
Jake Ferguson TD
Cooper Rush 250+ Pass Yards
Mike Gesicki ‘O’ 2.5 Receptions