QB Matthew Stafford
Stafford bounced back in a big way last week against the Vikings after throwing for under 200 passing yards in three straight games (averaging 153 yards) by going 19/27 for 209 passing yards with two TDs and zero INTs. When these two teams met earlier this season, Stafford went 24/36 for 243 passing yards with two TDs and zero interceptions despite a 37-20 losing effort. He's in for a tough matchup this week, as the Eagles allow the seventh fewest completions (19.8), 12th fewest pass attempts (31.9) and the second fewest passing yards (192.1) per game to opposing QBs. The Eagles are middle of the pack in terms of coverages run, running the 17th most man coverage (25.8) and zone coverage (68.4). Stafford performs well against both coverages, throwing for the 11th most passing yards against man (162.2), the 12th highest yards per attempt (7.82) with the seventh highest completion percentage (73.8%) against zone coverage, while throwing for the fifth most passing yards (70.7), the ninth highest yards per attempt (7.11) but the 14th highest completion percentage (54.7%). He tends to push the ball down field more often against man coverage, averaging a 9.4 aDoT compared to 7.0 against zone coverage. What this Eagles defence has been great against lately, has been stopping TDs through the air. Over the past seven games, they have allowed one or fewer passing TDs in five of those games (Lamar Jackson had one with just seven seconds remaining in the fourth quarter), and on the season, the Eagles allow the sixth fewest passing TDs against (1.3) per game. Stafford has thrown for 2+ passing TDs just once in their previous four games. The Rams love to get Kyren Williams and the run game involved in the red zone, which takes the ball out of Stafford's hand.

Suggested Pick:
Matt Stafford u1.5 Passing TDs (-185)

RB Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams was pretty much the entire Rams offence last week in their playoff win against the Vikings. He rushed 16 times for 76 yards, adding three receptions, 16 receiving yards and a TD through the air. He did all of this in what was a tough matchup. And he's getting another one this week, as the Eagles allow the seventh fewest rush attempts (19.6) and the seventh fewest rushing yards (79.8) per game to opposing RBs. Kyren was just alright when he played against the Eagles earlier this season, rushing 16 times for 72 rushing yards, adding one TD on the ground, but fumbled the ball twice. Last week, the Eagles allowed Josh Jacobs to do his thing, rushing for 81 yards on his regular high volume 18 rush attempt game, adding a TD on the ground. The Eagles run the run majority zone concept run defence, and allow a 4.38 yards per carry in the scheme, which is much higher than when they run man/gap and allow 3.76 yards per carry. The Eagles rank in the top 10 in explosive run rate percentage (5.3%); however, that's just not Kyren's game. Kyren gets the majority of his yards because of his high volume, carrying the ball the third most times on the season. Williams ranks third last of all RBs this season in explosive run rate, rushing for 15+ yards on just 1.9% of his carries. Jacobs had a 31 yard rush last week, but outside of that, kept him contained. With Kyren's lack of explosiveness on the ground, in a game they might need to throw the ball more than use Kyren's legs, he may not be able to get into his groove to take one long.

Suggested Pick:
Kyren Williams u14.5 Longest Rush (-115)

WR Puka Nacua
Nacua has really taken over as Stafford's favourite target since returning from injury in Week 8. Nacua has caught 75 of his 99 targets for 955 receiving yards and three TDs in his previous 10 games in the regular season. That has been glorified over the past four weeks, as he garnered 43 targets, grabbing 37 balls for 444 receiving yards. He struggled to create separation, but managed to catch five balls for 44 receiving yards. However, they really didn't need to throw much, having the game wrapped up at halftime. The Eagles are a very tough matchup for opposing WRs, while they do allow the ninth most targets (19.4), they only allow the 11th fewest receptions (11.5) and the third fewest passing yards (129.5) per game. However, Nacua managed to dissect this secondary when these two teams met in Week 12, catching nine of his 13 targets for 117 receiving yards. Nacua is a target hog in this offence, which is great for this matchup, with the Eagles running an even amount of man and zone coverage. In man coverage, Nacua is targeted at a 42.4% rate, holding a 66.7% catch rate, 11.9 yards per reception, 7.3 yards after catch per reception, a 3.37 yards per route run and a 6.9 (nice) aDoT. In zone coverage, Nacua is targeted at a 36% rate, holding a 79.3% catch rate, a 12.4 yards per reception, a 5.9 yards after catch per reception, 3.54 yards per reception and a 8.4 aDoT. So while Nacua has better numbers against man coverage, he can beat you no matter what you throw his way. Nacua lines up all over the field, but majority on the right side and will likey draw the Darius Slay matchup. Slay has been as close to a lockdown corner as the league this season. He has been targeted 67 times, allowing just 33 receptions and 380 receiving yards and two TDs –– zero since Week 5. Given his massive target share, Nacua will still get his. However, eight receptions against a great CB is a tall task. Nacua has gone under eight receptions in five of his six road games this season.

Suggested Pick:
Puka Nacua u7.5 Receptions (-145)

WR Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp continues to just be a non-factor in this Rams offence. He only had one target last week. Granted, he caught it, but was only able to turn it into 29 receiving yards. This wasn't the first time Kupp had been a non-factor in this offence. In the three games before last week, Kupp had just four catches for 53 receiving yards. Kupp's last big game actually came in this matchup against the Eagles, where Kupp caught eight of nine targets for 60 receiving yards and a TD. Maybe this matchup could help turn Kupp's struggles around? With the Eagles running an even amount of man and zone coverage, Kupp should see an advantage when facing zone coverage. He sees his target share (27.7%), catch rate (73.7%), yards per route run () and aDoT (8.4) increase in zone compared to man. Kupp lines up in the slot 58% of the time, and will often draw the Cooper DeJean matchup. DeJean has been great at limiting yards, but does allow catches, allowing a catch on 56 of his 79 targets, averaging only 32.8 yards per game. The Eagles allow 67.5 receiving yards to slot receivers per game, which is nearly half of their production to the position and are targeted at the 11th highest rate, but allow the eighth lowest catch rate at 68.4%. It's gross due to his lack of involvement in the offence, but in a matchup that he's previously performed well against, catching eight balls in each of his previous two meetings against the Eagles, facing off against the a slot CB who is prone to allowing receptions, we're getting a decent discount on Kupp receptions here.

Suggested Pick:
Cooper Kupp o3.5 Receptions (-120)

TE Tyler Higbee
It's so unforunate that Higbee left last weeks game early, because he was cooking. Higbee had five receptions and 58 receiving yards in the first half alone. Who knows how much better of a night he would have had had he played the entire game. But he'll have another challenge this week against the Eagles, who allow the fourth fewest receptions (4.0) and the single fewest receiving yards (34.8) per game. Last week against the Packers, the Eagles allowed Tucker Kraft to catch all five of his targets for 26 receiving yards. Higbee has too small of a sample size to really dive into the coverage numbers, and while his receptions look enticing, this is still a player returning from an ACL injury who also left last week with a chest contusion. It's safety to stay off of him in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

QB Jalen Hurts
Like Stafford, Jalen Hurts and his play very much limped into the playoffs. Over his previous five games, Hurts has thrown for under 150 passing yard in four of those games, averaging 131.6 passing yards per game. There are two outliers in there, as he threw for 290 passing yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers and had just 11 against the Washington Commanders when he left the game early with a concussion. When these two teams met earlier this season, Hurts was fairly contained, going 15/22 for 179 passing yards with one TD and zero INTs. The Rams have cleaned up their defensive struggles from early in the season, limiting opposing QBs to the 12th fewest completions (20.8), the 13th fewest pass attempts (31.9) but allow the ninth most passing yards (241.2). Last week, Sam Darnold went 25/40 for 245 passing yards with one TD and one INT. The Rams run the seventh most zone coverage (73.5%). Hurts is not great against zone coverage. He averages the fourth fewest passing yards (129.4) per game against the coverage, but his yards per attempt shoots up to 14th highest at 7.8. However, his numbers against man coverage is much better, averaging the eighth most passing yards per game, and the second highest yards per attempt (9.36) per game against the coverage. The biggest advantage for the Rams defence last week was how easy it was for them to get to the QB. The sacked Darnold nine time, however, this week they won't get as lucky. The Eagles have the sixth best PFF graded pass blocking offensive line, and they're facing a mobile QB with Hurts. The Rams are middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed to QBs, allowing the 14th most, averaging 21.1 per game. The Rams allowed Darnold to rush for 19 yards on four attempts. Hurts has rushed for 40+ yards in three of his previous four games, and had 39 against the Rams earlier this season. The Rams have allowed opposing QBs to rush over their line in four of the last five games.

Suggested Pick:
Jalen Hurts o37.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Saquon Barkley 
The Eagles have to be a little concerned coming into this one facing the Rams who just dismantled the 14-2 Vikings winning 27-9 and getting 9 sacks on Sam Darnold😬 with that being said that performance gives us something we can take advantage of and that is targeting the man Saquon Barkley. The Eagles have been relying on this guy at an all time high having 29,31,25 attempts the L3 games and I don’t see that stopping today facing the this Rams team who have allowed 4.68 YPC over the last 6 games ranking 10th worst. While doing so they have allowed a 3.8% explosive run% which is the 10th best so those huge runs could possibly be at a limited (Not saying he won’t run all over these guys and get multiple 20+ yard runs but I think this is a stat that needs to be mentioned). The Rams also allow 2.16 yards before contact ranking 8th worst which just screams trouble for this defense. One team that is very similar in the rushing stats over the last 2 months to the Rams is the Commanders😬 not good company to be with and we just saw what the Lions RB’s did to them yesterday. Now with that being said Barkley just went for 255 rushing yards against this exact Rams team in Week 12 having 2 rushes for 70+ yards and yet he still crushed this line having 26 attempts! This is a great spot for Barkley to be extremely involved on the ground.

Suggested Pick:
Saquon Barkley o21.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

WR AJ Brown
There is a lot of talking going on around this Eagles offence and AJ Brown after he wasn't utilized against the Packers last week. Brown caught just one of his three targets for 10 receiving yards last week. But doesn't this sound familiar? Brown was publically frustrated because he wasn't getting the ball for a few weeks in the middle of the season, with just four receptions for 43 receiving yards against the Carolina Panthers. And what happened the following week? Brown went off against the Pittsburgh Steelers, catching eight of his 10 targets for 110 receiving yards and a TD. Could we see some of the same this week against the Rams? He's already done it against this season, as in an earlier matchup in Week 12, Brown caught six of his seven targets for 109 receiving yards and a TD. The Rams are great at limiting receptions to opposing WRs, averaging just the second fewest receptions (10.4) but the 11th fewest receiving yards (142.1) per game. With the Rams running the seventh most zone coverage in the league, Brown should see a healthy amount of production. He sees his yards per reception (16.6) and aDoT (13.1) increase in zone compared to man. Brown runs the majority of his routes on the right side and will often draw the Darious Williams matchup. Williams has been heavily targeted this season, and has consistently allowed yards to opposing WRs. He's allowed 42 receptions on 68 of his targets, averaging 41.8 receiving yards per game. Against the Eagles in Week 12, Williams allowed four receptions on six targets for 86 receiving yards. Brown had all 86 of those receiving yards against Williams in that game, and should be able to do it again, especially with all the chatter around him this week.

Suggested Pick:
AJ Brown o67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR DeVonta Smith
While Brown is getting a lot of the buzz, Smith has quietly been really good lately. Smith had the better game of the two Eagles WRs last week, catching all four of his targets for 55 receiving yards. But even in the three weeks before that, Smith caught 23 of his 24 targets for 280 receiving yards, eclipsing 100 yards on two occasions. Smith missed the Week 12 matchup against the Rams, which could have been a reason why Brown did so well. With the Rams running majority zone coverage, Smith sees the biggest boost. His target share remains about even, but he sees his catch rate (86.8%), his yards per reception (12.3), his yards per route run (2.27) and his aDoT (9.9). Smith lines up in the slot 56% of the time and will often draw the Quentin Lake matchup. Lake allowed three reception on four of his targets for 29 receiving yards last week and has allowed a 65.7% catch rate and average just 29.6 yards per game. Against the Eagles in Week 12, Lake allowed a reception on both of his targets but for just 10 yards. However, that wasn't against Smith. With such a high catch rate over his last few games, there's no reason to expect Smith can't do it again, despite the tough matchup. Smith has 6+ receptions in three of his previous four games. The only miss came last week, when Hurts only threw the ball 21 times.

Suggested Pick:
DeVonta Smith o4.5 Receptions (+100)

TE Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert hasn't been flashy lately, but has been consistent. Last week, he caught four of his six targets for 47 receiving yards. And in the final two games of the regular season, Goedert caught seven of his 10 targets for 90 receiving yards. This Rams pass defence is a money maker for opposing TEs. The Rams get targeted at the third highest rate at the TE position, allowing the second most receptions (6.2) and the fourth most receiving yards (64.8) per game. Over the past four weeks, the Rams have allowed TJ Hockenson to catch all five of his targets for 64 receiving yards and one TD in the Wild Card round, Noah Fant had five receptions on six targets for 63 receiving yards and one TD in Week 18, Trey McBride had 12 receptions on 16 targets for 123 receiving yards and his first TD on the year in Week 17, and Tyler Conklin had five receptions on seven targets for 59 receiving yards in Week 16. Outside of Week 6 against the Cleveland Browns when he played just two snaps and left with an injury, Goedert actually had his worst game of the season against the Rams, catching four of his five targets for only 19 receiving yards. However, the way the Rams are defending the TE position, there's no real reason to stray away from Goedert in this matchup. Goedert has registered 40+ receiving yards in five of his last eight full games.

Suggested Pick:
Dallas Goedert o37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Since about Week 14, I've said the Eagles are my Super Bowl pick this season. And I'm not straying away from that prediction in this matchup. The Rams looked great against the Vikings last week, but this isn't the same level of defence that they're facing this week. The Eagles are a force to be reckoned with, and they're winning games without their offence going. While Hurts hasn't been great, neither has Stafford. So what is going for each team? The run game and defence. However, in both of those facets, I think the Eagles have the clear advantage, and that will reflect in our pick.

Best Bet: Under 41.5
Lean: Eagles -6.5
Eagles 24 - Rams 13

Anytime Touchdown: 

AJ Brown TD (+130)
As we mentioned earlier, there's a lot of smoke about AJ Brown, and when there is, he usually finds the end zone. Brown has scored in three of his previous four games coming into this game, and scored in the earlier meeting against the Rams this season. Plus, it's a great matchup for Brown, as the Rams allow the fourth most receiving TDs to WRs (20) this season.

Kyren Williams TD (+110)
Kyren TD? Plus money? When's the last time we've seen that? Kyren has scored in three straight games, and six of his previous seven games. He scored a TD against the Eagles earlier this season, and that's a tall task, considering they've only allowed five rushing TDs and zero receiving TDs to RBs this season. The Rams love to use Kyren in the red zone, so if they get there, expect a heavy dose of Kyren.

1st Touchdown 

AJ Brown First TD (+650)
Early and often. That's how you get your disgruntled WR back into the game. Brown has scored the first TD for the Eagles on two of the 10 times they've scored the first TD this season. In the game against the Rams earlier this season, Kyren scored the first TD, but Brown answered shortly after, scoring the first TD for the Eagles in that game.

Parlay 1: +160 odds on bet365

Matthew Stafford u1.5 Passing TDs

Kyren Williams 50+ Rushing Yards

Cooper Kupp 3+ Receptions

Parlay 2: +180 odds on bet365

Jalen Hurts 30+ Rushing Yards

Dallas Goedert 30+ Receiving Yards

AJ Brown 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: +1000 odds on bet365

AJ Brown TD

AJ Brown 80+ Receiving Yards

Under 42.5

QB Lamar Jackson
Lamar is averaging 241 passing yards per game, 8.78 YPA, 2.4 passing TDs and leads the league in ANY/A (9.38). As a dual threat QB, he’s also averaging 55.3 rushing yards per game. Since week 11, the Bills are 15^th in passing yards per game allowed (245), allow the 6^th most YPA (7.54) and allow the 8^th highest ANY/A (7.08). From a rushing perspective, the Bills have been strong allowing the 6^th fewest rushing yards per game to QB. From a scheme perspective, the Bills have run zone coverage 72.2% of the time since week 11 (9^th highest) and have run two-high 54.5% of the time (also 9^th highest). Against zone coverage, Lamar averages 9.69 YPA, a 71.1% completion rate and 10.16 ANY/A, positive splits. Against two-high, Lamar averages 8.15 YPA, a 68.5% completion rate and 9.38 ANY/A, solid statistics but slightly negative split in terms of YPA. Despite the negative splits, he still leads the NFL. After only throwing 21 pass attempts last week in a blow out win against the Steelers, this game should be much more competitive. His pass attempts line is currently set at 28.5 and I like him to produce through the air in this matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 218.5 Pass Yds (-115)
225+ Pass Yds (+102)

RB Derrick Henry
Henry is averaging 117 rushing yards per game, 6.00 YPC and has rushed for 18 total TDs. Since week 9, the Bills allow the 9^th fewest YPC (4.07) and the 7^th fewest rushing yards per game (101.3). The Bills allow the 6^th fewest rush yards before contact per attempt since week 11 (1.31). This is bad news for Henry, who averages 3.30 yards before contact per attempt, which is 2^nd behind only Saquon Barkley from starting RBs. Henry is not as dominant after contact at this point in his career, ranking 14^th amongst RBs with 100+ carries this season in yards after contact per attempt (2.61). This is one area where the Bills struggle, allowing 2.44 yards after contact per attempt since week 11 (5^th highest). A lot of Henry’s yardage this season has come from explosive runs, as he has the 3^rd highest explosive run rate and the 2^nd highest explosive yards % from RBs with 100+ carries. The Bills allow the 12^th lowest explosive run rate (4.0%) and the 5^th lowest explosive yards % since week 11. I expect the Ravens to rely more heavily on the pass game here and am inclined to fade Henry if I must pick a side.

Suggested Pick
“U” 96.5 Rush Yds (-115)

RB Justice Hill
Hill has been used as the pass catching back, he has a 45% route rate participation compared to Henry’s 24.5%. He’s averaging 2.9 receptions, 24.8 receiving yards, 1.74 YPRR and a 22% TPRR. The matchup is intriguing as the Bills allow the 5^th most receptions and receiving yards to RB. They also allow the 2^nd highest backfield target share (19.0%) and the 3^rd highest checkdown rate (10.1%). From a scheme perspective, the Bills have run zone coverage 72.2% of the time since week 11 (9^th highest) and have run two-high 54.5% of the time (also 9^th highest). Against zone coverage, Hill averages 1.912 YPRR and 24% TPRR, both positive splits. He also has positive splits against two-high, averaging 1.84 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Overall, a nice spot for Justice Hill who had 78 receiving yards in this matchup early in the season.

Suggested Pick
“O” 22.5 Rec Yds (-110)
40+ Rec Yds (+265)

WR Rashod Bateman
Bateman has quietly had a solid season, averaging 43.3 receiving yards per game, 1.80 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. Zay Flowers is not expected to play again this week, so Bateman will serve as the WR1 for Lamar. He did not see much production last week in Zay’s absence, but that was mostly due to playing with the lead the entire game, as Lamar only thew 21 pass attempts. He did end up scoring a TD but only had 2 receptions for 24 receiving yards. The Bills allow the 12^th most receiving yards and 8^th most receptions to WR. Bateman has lined up out wide on 91.5% of his routes. Since week 11, the Bills allow the 14^th lowest target share and the 12^th highest YPRR against wide alignment. From a scheme perspective, the Bills have run zone coverage 72.2% of the time since week 11 (9^th highest) and have run two-high 54.5% of the time (also 9^th highest). Bateman has seen positive splits against zone coverage, averaging 2.11 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Against two-high, Bateman has been the most efficient Ravens receiver, averaging 2.42 YPRR on 19% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“O” 45.5 Rec Yds (-110)

TE Mark Andrews
After a slow start to the season, Andrews has picked it up. From weeks 1-5, he averaged 24 receiving yards per game, 1.25 YPRR and was targeted on 15% of his routes. From week 6 onward, Andrews has averaged 44.6 receiving yards per game, 2.30 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He has also caught 11 TDs during this time. The Bills have been around the middle of the pack in both receiving yards and TDs allowed to TE. Andrews has lined up in the slot on 63.8% of his routes and inline on 19.8%. The Bills allow the 12^th most YPRR, and the 9^th highest target share against the slot since week 11. They allow the 9^th most YPRR, and the 11^th highest target share against inline. From a scheme perspective, the Bills have run zone coverage 72.2% of the time since week 11 (9^th highest) and have run two-high 54.5% of the time (also 9^th highest). Outside of Zay, who’s inactive again this week, Andrews has been the most efficient Ravens receiver against zone, averaging 2.17 YPRR on 20% TPRR. Against two-high, Andrews averages 1.93 YPRR on 21% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
Anytime TD (+165)

TE Isaiah Likely
On the season, Likely is averaging 29.8 receiving yards per game, 1.82 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. With Zay Flowers out last week, Likely’s route rate increased to 65.4%, compared to 51.1% in the 6 prior games with Zay active. He ended up being the most productive receiver last week with 3 receptions for 53 yards. We should expect much of the same this week with Zay inactive again. The Bills have been around the middle of the pack in both receiving yards and TDs allowed to TE. Likely has lined up in the slot on 53.8% of his routes and inline on 31.7%. The Bills allow the 12^th most YPRR, and the 9^th highest target share against the slot since week 11. They allow the 9^th most YPRR, and the 11^th highest target share against inline. From a scheme perspective, the Bills have run zone coverage 72.2% of the time since week 11 (9^th highest) and have run two-high 54.5% of the time (also 9^th highest). Likely sees positive splits against zone, averaging 2.10 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Against two-high, Likely averages 1.91 YPRR on 22% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“O” 37.5 Rec Yds (-110)

QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen is averaging 222.4 passing yards per game, 7.86 YPA and 8.11 ANY/A. He’s also averaging 32.1 rushing yards per game. He’ll face a Ravens defense that on the season, allows the 3rrd most passing yards and 10^th most passing TDs, but they have made massive improvements the 2^nd half of the season. They are number 1 in EPA/DB and DB success rate since week 11, 2 advanced statistics that measure pass defense. Since week 11, they have played the 8^th highest rate of single-high (60.3%) and the 8^th highest rate of man (34.6%). Josh averages 7.90 YPA and 8.09 ANY/A against single-high, insignificant differences from his overall rates. Against man coverage, he averages 7.43 YPA and 8.60 ANY/A, mixed splits. Despite running a higher man coverage frequency than league average, they leaned into zone coverage when they played them in week 4, playing it at a 77.8% rate. They limited the Bills to 10 points, so they may lean further into zone coverage this time around. Allen averages 8.12 YPA and 7.57 ANY/A against zone. This is a tough matchup for the air attack, but Josh Allen is the favorite for MVP, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him succeed. In terms of the running game, the Ravens have allowed the 10^th fewest rushing yards and are middle of the pack in rushing TDs allowed to QB. Looking at the game logs, Jayden Daniels is the most notable dual-threat QB the Ravens faced, and he was only able to gain 22 rush yards. Not a great matchup but we’re talking about playoff Josh.

Suggested Pick
Anytime TD (+105)
“U” 32.5 Pass Att (+100)

RB James Cook
Cook is averaging 66.4 rushing yards per game, 4.91 YPC and 17 total rushing TDs (2^nd most). He ran for 120 rush yards and 1 TD in the Bills wild card matchup against the Broncos. He’ll have a tough matchup against the Ravens, who allow the least YPC (3.55) and the least rushing yards per game (80.1). Only 2.6% of opposing runs have gone for 15+ yards against them, the lowest rate in the league. Out of RBs with 100+ carries, Cook is 20^th in explosive run rate at 4.8%. 55.1% of Cook’s attempts have been out of zone concept, but he has been less efficient here as he averages 4.54 YPC and a 51.8% success rate. That compares to 5.28 YPC and a 54.8% success rate in man/gap concepts, which accounts for 44.9% of his attempts. The Ravens are equally strong against both. Against zone concept, they allow the 5^th fewest YPC. Against man/gap concept, they allow the 3^rd fewest YPC. Cook’s usage rate is also not the strongest. Since week 10, he’s only accounted for 39.8% of rush attempts and his route rate is 2^nd (29.4%) to Ty Johnson. I’m inclined to fade Cook.

Suggested Pick
“U” 55.5 Rush Yds (-109)

WR Khalil Shakir
Shakir is averaging 54.7 receiving yards per game, 2.27 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. He has the highest 1^st-read rate on the team at 24.9%. The Ravens this season allow the 3^rd most receiving yards per game to WR, but they have really improved their pass defense since week 11 as they are number 1 in both EPA/DB and DB success rate. Shakir has operated primarily out of the slot, accounting for 73.1% of his routes. Since week 11, the Ravens have allowed the 14^th highest target share and the 7^th fewest YPRR to the slot. Since week 11, the Ravens have played the 8^th highest rate of single-high (60.3%) and the 8^th highest rate of man (34.6%). They did however lean into zone in their week 4 matchup, playing it at a 77.8% rate. I expect higher than average frequency of zone and single-high in this matchup. Against single-high, Shakir has negative production splits on similar volume, averaging 2.18 YPRR, 27% TPRR and 23.7% 1^st-read rate. Against zone, Shakir sees positive splits averaging 2.68 YPRR, 31% TPRR and a 30.1% 1^st-read rate. If I’m choosing a Bills receiving weapon to produce, it’s easily Shakir.

Suggested Pick
50+ Rec Yds (-115)
60+ Rec Yds (+140)
70+ Rec Yds (+225)

WR Keon Coleman
The rookie WR is averaging 42.8 receiving yards per game, 1.87 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. He has been used more as a deep threat due to his jump ball ability, with the highest aDOT on the team at 15.3. He is 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 19.8%. The Ravens this season allow the 3^rd most receiving yards per game to WR, but they have really improved their pass defense since week 11 as they are number 1 in both EPA/DB and DB success rate. Coleman has primarily operated out wide, lining up there on 88.6% of his routes. Since week 11, the Ravens have allowed the 3^rd lowest target share and the 5^th fewest YPRR to wide alignment. Since week 11, the Ravens have played the 8^th highest rate of single-high (60.3%) and the 8^th highest rate of man (34.6%). They did however lean into zone in their week 4 matchup, playing it at a 77.8% rate. I expect higher than average frequency of zone and single-high in this matchup. Keon sees positive splits against single-high, averaging 2.47 YPRR, 22% TPRR and 21.2% 1^st-read rate. Against zone, Keon sees negative splits, averaging 1.81 YPRR, 14% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 15.4%. Overall, this is a tough matchup for Keon and from a scheme perspective, mixed matchup. His receiving line is so low that I think there’s a bit of value.

Suggested Pick
“O” 24.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Anytime TD (+200)

TE Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid is averaging 34.5 receiving yards per game, 1.76 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. His route rate is down to 57.7% this season, from 65.1% last season. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 20.9%. The Ravens on the season are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to TE, and they have really improved their pass defense since week 11 as they are number 1 in both EPA/DB and DB success rate. Kincaid has lined up in the slot on 59.4% of his routes and inline on 25.6%. Since week 11, the Ravens have allowed the 14^th highest target share to the slot and the 10^th highest target share to inline alignment. They allow the 7^th fewest YPRR to the slot and the 15^th most YPRR to inline alignment. Since week 11, the Ravens have played the 8^th highest rate of single-high (60.3%) and the 8^th highest rate of man (34.6%). They did however lean into zone in their week 4 matchup, playing it at a 77.8% rate. I expect higher than average frequency of zone and single-high in this matchup. Kincaid sees negative splits against single-high, averaging 1.37 YPRR, 26% TPRR and 19.9% 1^st-read rate. Kincaid has mixed splits against zone, averaging 1.81 YPRR, 26% TPRR and 19.2% 1^st-read rate. Tough matchup for Kincaid whose route rate is down this season.

Suggested Pick
“U” 31.5 Rec Yds (-109)
“U” 3.5 Rec (-140)

If Zay Flowers was healthy, I’d be all over the Ravens, but the lack of receiving weapons for Lamar has me a bit hesitant. After a rough start to the season defensively, the Ravens have arguably been the best defense in the league since week 11. The Bills have been solid defensively in their own right. A matchup between the MVP favorite and MVP runner up should be a fun one. I think the value is on the under with 2 elite defenses coming into form as of late.

Best Bet: (Under 51.5-110)
Lean: (Ravens ML -120)
Ravens 24 Bills 21

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (BUF) Josh Allen +105
Josh Allen has had 10 rushing TDs in the past 7 weeks and had 3 in 2 playoff games last season. He didn’t need to do much in last week’s blowout, but he still had 2 red zone carries. I expect him to try to take over in a win or go home scenario.

Longshot: (BAL) Justice Hill +420
I like the matchup here for Hill as the Bills struggle against pass catching backs. He had a TD in their 1^st matchup earlier this season. He’s also scored 3 times in the past 5 weeks. He had a redzone target last week against Pittsburgh and was able to score. Stay hot Justice!

First TD

Best Pick: (BUF) Josh Allen +700
Same analysis as above. He has 4 1^st quarter TDs in the past 5 weeks, like the value!

Longshot: (BAL) Mark Andrews +1100
Mark Andrews has scored a TD in 10 of his last 13 games. He is once again Lamar’s favorite redzone target after starting the season slow. I like his value for anytime TD as well, but with expecting the Ravens to win and score first, I like the value on 1^st TD as well!

Parlay #1: (+401)

Khalil Shakir 50+ Rec Yds

Justice Hill “O” 22.5 Rec Yds

Lamar Jackson “O” 217.5 Pass Yds

Parlay #2: (+837)

Khalil Shakir 60+ Rec Yds

Mark Andrews Anytime TD

Dalton Kincaid “U” 31.5 Rec Yds

Parlay #3: Longshot (+6472)

Mark Andrews 1^st TD Scorer

Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer

Khalil Shakir 70+ Rec Yds

QB CJ Stroud
C.J. Stroud's performance in the Wild Card Round showcased his potential and provided a positive note after a challenging second season. He threw for 282 yards, his highest since Week 8, with 8.5 yards per attempt—the best mark since Week 5. The Texans leaned heavily on Stroud, dropping him back on 73.1% of early downs in the first half.. His receivers also contributed significantly, generating 120 yards after the catch, the most support Stroud has received in this area since Week 11. This game mirrored his Week 16 outing against the Chiefs, where he completed 23 of 39 passes for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, with an added 23 rushing yards. However, Kansas City's defensive pressure was a constant challenge, as they pressured Stroud on 48.8% of his dropbacks in that game. Under duress, he struggled, completing just 36.8% of his passes for 112 yards and an interception. Despite these obstacles, Stroud displayed flashes of playmaking ability, reminding us of his talent. While his season lacked consistency, moments like these underline his capacity to grow into a more reliable and dynamic leader for the Texans in the years to come. I look for Stroud to have a good statistical outing vs this team as the team likely faces a losing game script, and high on the confidence from the previous game.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 229.5 Pass Yards (-110)

RB Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon delivered a solid performance on Saturday, rushing 25 times for 106 yards and a touchdown, while adding 13 receiving yards on one catch. The highlight of his day came on Houston's final full possession when he carried the ball 10 times for 60 yards, capping the drive with a decisive 17-yard touchdown run. It was a textbook example of Mixon thriving in favorable game scripts, a trend that has defined his late-season success. Over his last eight games, Mixon has surpassed the 100-yard mark against the Cowboys, Jaguars, and Chargers, but he has struggled mightily in less favorable matchups. In the other five games, he managed just 174 yards on 74 carries, averaging 2.4 yards per attempt, with nearly a third of those runs gaining no yardage at all. This inconsistency was on full display in the Week 16 matchup against Kansas City, where Mixon was held to 57 yards on 14 carries, averaging only 0.29 yards before contact. Kansas City's run defense has been one of the league's best, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, with a success rate of 65.2% against rushes and only 2.57 yards after contact per attempt—both ranking second in the league. Their ability to limit explosive plays and dominate at the line of scrimmage stifled Mixon in that game, and they'll aim to replicate that success in the rematch. For Mixon to make an impact, Houston will need to establish a lead and stay committed to the run, as he’s proven most effective when his team can control the clock and wear down opposing defenses late in games. Otherwise, Kansas City’s stout front seven could keep him in check once again.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 57.5 Rush Yards (-110)

WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins stepped up for the Texans on Saturday, delivering a standout performance with seven catches on eight targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. It was just his second 100-yard outing since returning in Week 11, but it marked his fifth touchdown in the last eight games. Without key weapons like Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs in the lineup, Collins has become the focal point of Houston's passing game, commanding targets on 32.4% of his routes and averaging an impressive 2.76 yards per route run. The Texans will lean on Collins heavily again as they face the Chiefs, who have excelled at limiting opposing WR1s this season. In their Week 16 matchup, Collins managed seven receptions on 10 targets but was held to a modest 60 yards, underscoring the Chiefs' ability to contain primary threats. However, Collins thrives against man coverage, and the Chiefs’ defensive tendencies could play into his strengths. Kansas City used man coverage on 30.8% of passing plays this season, a rate they maintained in the Week 16 meeting. Collins has been targeted on 35.1% of his routes against man coverage compared to 25.9% against zone, making him a dangerous weapon when defenses go one-on-one. In that earlier matchup, he posted 59 of his 60 yards against man coverage while drawing targets on 40% of his routes in those situations. For Houston to generate big plays, they’ll need to create opportunities for Collins to exploit these matchups. With his combination of size, speed, and ability to produce after the catch, Collins will be the key to keeping Houston's passing attack competitive against a tough Kansas City secondary.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 27.5 Longest Reception (-110)

WR John Metchie
John Metchie took on an expanded role in Houston’s offense Saturday, tying Nico Collins with eight targets, though he turned those opportunities into just 28 yards. Running routes on 64% of the Texans' dropbacks, Metchie remains part of a receiver rotation but showed flashes of potential, particularly in short-area routes and quick-release plays. Despite the modest yardage, his workload indicates a growing trust in his ability to contribute. What makes Metchie’s role intriguing is his usage in the slot. Last week, 50% of his snaps came from the slot position, a critical factor against a Chiefs defense that has struggled to contain slot receivers this season. Kansas City allowed 53.4% of their receptions to receivers from the slot—the highest rate in the NFL—and slot receivers averaged 8.1 yards per target against them. Additionally, the Chiefs conceded a 7.3% touchdown rate to slot receivers, leaving some room for optimism if Houston can scheme Metchie into favorable matchups. Metchie’s ability to create separation and operate effectively in tight spaces could be pivotal for the Texans. Although he didn’t play in the Week 16 matchup between these teams, his role in attacking Kansas City’s vulnerability over the middle of the field will likely be a focus. With the Chiefs’ secondary potentially weakened by injuries, including the absence of Jaylen Watson, Metchie could see opportunities to capitalize against zone coverage or mismatches in man-to-man situations.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-104)

TE Dalton Schulz
Dalton Schultz has been a key part of the Texans' passing game, particularly in the red zone, and he continues to play a prominent role as a tight end in their offense. On Saturday, he was on the field for a significant portion of the dropbacks, catching 2-of-4 targets for 23 yards, which is consistent with his regular-season usage. Schultz’s involvement on the field and in the offense makes him a reliable option, especially considering the matchup with the Chiefs. The Chiefs have struggled against tight ends this season, allowing the most yards per target to the position (8.8), which bodes well for Schultz. In fact, teams targeted their tight ends against Kansas City at a high rate (25.1% of the time), and Schultz could see a similar amount of action. When these teams played in Week 16, Schultz was a key figure in the passing game, catching 5 of 8 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. That performance highlighted his ability to capitalize on opportunities, especially in the red zone. Despite only scoring one other touchdown this season, Schultz’s role and target share (21.6% of the team’s targets in Week 16) make him a valuable weapon for Houston, particularly in matchups like this one.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+340)

QB Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes' 2024 season could be viewed as a "down year" by his exceptional standards, but it was still marked by moments of brilliance, particularly in the latter half. He set career lows in passing yards per game (245.5), yards per attempt (6.8), and passing touchdowns (26) while also enduring a career-high 36 sacks and 108 hits—highlighting challenges with pass protection on the Chiefs OL. Despite these struggles, Mahomes finished the season strong, throwing 18 touchdowns to just two interceptions over his final nine games, including standout performances after Marquise Brown’s return to the lineup. His chemistry with Brown and a more talented receiving corps helped elevate Kansas City's offense late in the season. In Week 16 against Houston, Mahomes faced a defensive unit that mixed coverages effectively, limiting him to 260 passing yards at 6.3 yards per attempt, though he added a rushing touchdown and 33 yards on the ground to bolster his outing. Houston’s ability to generate pressure was a key factor, as they pressured Mahomes on 37.8% of his dropbacks, holding him to 5.9 yards per attempt under duress. However, Mahomes exploited man coverage effectively, throwing for 8.2 yards per attempt, compared to significantly lower production against Cover 2 and Cover 3 schemes. While Houston has allowed big plays all season, surrendering a league-high 17 touchdowns outside the red zone, their ability to create pressure made life difficult for even a quarterback of Mahomes' caliber.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 34.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115)

RB Isiah Pacheco / RB Kareem Hunt
The Kansas City Chiefs' backfield has been a rotating committee featuring Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and Samaje Perine, with each player carving out a specific role. Pacheco began the season as the lead rusher but fractured his leg in Week 2, sidelining him until Week 10. Upon his return, he struggled to regain top form, rushing 49 times for just 175 yards (3.6 YPC) with no touchdowns over six games. Pacheco managed a modest 34.7% success rate, gained 10+ yards on just 2% of his carries, and caught five passes for 25 yards while handling 46.2% of the backfield touches. A rib injury forced him out of Week 17, but with over two weeks of rest, he is expected to play Saturday, though his effectiveness remains uncertain. Kareem Hunt has served as a complementary rusher, particularly during Pacheco’s return. Over five games, Hunt tallied 45 carries for 151 yards (3.4 YPC) with a slightly better 33.3% success rate and two rushing touchdowns, including a score in Week 16 against Houston. In that matchup, Hunt led the backfield with 11 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown, adding two receptions for 24 yards. Pacheco, by comparison, was bottled up for just 26 yards on nine carries and one catch for -1 yard. Hunt has also been the go-to option for red zone rushing, with Pacheco receiving no carries inside the five-yard line during their shared workload. Houston’s defense has been stout against the run all season, allowing just 3.9 YPC to running backs (3rd in the league) and excelling in limiting explosive plays. They rank 10th in both yards allowed before contact (1.13) and success rate (64.1%). If Kansas City’s rushing attack is going to find success, Hunt’s red zone efficiency and Perine’s ability to exploit mismatches in the passing game could be critical. However, the unit’s overall lack of efficiency and Pacheco’s uncertain health raise questions about their ability to consistently move the ball on the ground against one of the league’s better run defenses.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+175)

WR Xavier Worthy
Xavier Worthy ended his rookie season on a high note, displaying notable growth as a significant part of the Kansas City Chiefs' passing game. In his first year, he recorded 59 receptions on 98 targets for 638 yards and six touchdowns, adding 104 rushing yards and three more scores. Though his early season was relatively quiet, Worthy emerged as a key contributor over the final seven games, leading the team in receptions (39), receiving yards (392), and touchdowns (3). His efficiency also improved dramatically, as he posted 1.65 yards per route run in that span, up from 0.90 earlier in the season. Worthy’s performance in Week 16 against the Houston Texans was particularly notable. He caught 7-of-11 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown, and also added 3 rushes for 10 yards. A large portion of his success came from his work in the slot, where he played a season-high 56.4% of his snaps. The Texans' defense has struggled against slot receivers, allowing 8.5 yards per target (22nd) and a league-high 11.5% touchdown rate. This vulnerability helped Worthy put together a productive game, and it could prove to be a key factor again in their upcoming matchup.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins has had a steady, if not explosive, impact on the Kansas City Chiefs since joining the team, averaging 4.1 receptions for 43.7 yards per game and 4 touchdowns over his 10 games. Despite being targeted on 23.7% of his routes, Hopkins was on the field for only 56.5% of the team's dropbacks, suggesting a somewhat cautious approach to integrating him into the offense. The Chiefs may have been saving his best performances for the postseason, though it's unclear how they’ll deploy him in the upcoming game against Houston. Hopkins’ matchup with the Texans will be a challenging one. He spent most of his time out wide during the regular season, where Houston’s cornerbacks, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, have been effective. The Texans have allowed a solid 59.1% catch rate (7th), 7.9 yards per target (7th), and a 3.6% touchdown rate (6th) to outside receivers. When these teams met in Week 16, Hopkins played 75% of his snaps on the outside and caught all 4 of his targets for 37 yards. While he wasn’t particularly explosive in that game, he did manage to be efficient with his opportunities. One of Hopkins' key advantages, however, is his potential touchdown equity. Since joining the Chiefs, he leads the team with a 26.7% share of the targets in the red zone. With this high usage near the goal line, Hopkins remains a potent weapon for Kansas City, especially in a game where they’ll be looking for reliable playmakers to step up in critical situations. If he sees an increased role, especially with a higher snap count, Hopkins could be in position to make a significant impact for the Chiefs.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+320)

TE Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce has had a somewhat subdued 2023 season by his usual lofty standards, averaging 51.4 yards per game, down from his typical 65.6 yards in previous seasons. His 8.5 yards per catch and 3 touchdowns are career lows, but he did finish the regular season on a high note, catching 8-of-11 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown in his last game against the Bears on Christmas Day. Given his history of strong postseason performances—especially after a down regular season—there’s still a strong chance Kelce could elevate his game when it matters most, just like he did last postseason, where he racked up impressive performances like 7-71-0, 5-75-2, and 11-116-1. The Chiefs' passing game is more diverse this postseason compared to last year, with added weapons like DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown at wide receiver, along with Noah Gray contributing as a tight end. Despite this, Kelce remains the focal point of the offense and should see significant attention in the postseason. However, the matchup against Houston presents some challenges. The Texans have been tough against tight ends this season, allowing a league-low 63.9% catch rate to the position, along with 6.2 yards per target and 9.7 yards per catch. However, they have been more generous in the touchdown department, allowing a 6.7% touchdown rate, which keeps the door open for scoring opportunities. When these teams faced off in Week 16, Kelce caught 5-of-7 targets for just 30 yards, highlighting how the Texans can limit his production. But given his proven postseason pedigree, Kelce’s ability to impact the game when it counts most can’t be underestimated.

Suggested Play
Pass

Both offenses have had underwhelming years in comparison to expectations, but based on history with Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs and in this Chiefs offense, as well as the fact that the Texans looked to right the ship offensively last week vs the Chargers, I think we could be in store for more fireworks than many would suggest this weekend. The Texans defense has what it takes to cause this Chiefs offense to stall if we get the Mahomes that struggled with the deep ball for some of the season, but in this case with the prevalence of many WRs in this offense, I like the Chiefs and Mahomes to find their comfort.

Best Bet: ‘O’ 41.5 -120
Lean: Chiefs -8.5 +100
Chiefs 27 Texans 17

Anytime Touchdown  Scorer 

(Texans) Dalton Schultz +340
When these teams played in Week 16, Schultz was a key figure in the passing game, catching 5 of 8 targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. That performance highlighted his ability to capitalize on opportunities, especially in the red zone. Despite only scoring one other touchdown this season, Schultz’s role and target share (21.6% of the team’s targets in Week 16) make him a valuable weapon for Houston, particularly in matchups like this one.

(Chiefs) DeAndre Hopkins +320
Since joining the Chiefs, he leads the team with a 26.7% share of the targets in the red zone. With this high usage near the goal line, Hopkins remains a potent weapon for Kansas City, especially in a game where they’ll be looking for reliable playmakers to step up in critical situations. If he sees an increased role, especially with a higher snap count, Hopkins could be in position to make a significant impact for the Chiefs.

First Touchdown

(Texans) Nico Collins +1200
These long odds are appealing for the Texans' clear top option. Collins has found the end zone in back-to-back games and in seven of his 13 games this season.

Parlay 1 +1160

CJ Stroud ‘O’ 229.5 Pass Yards

Kareem Hunt ATD

Dalton Schultz ATD

Parlay 2 +395

Nico Collins ‘O’ 27.5 Longest Reception

John Metchie ‘O’ 3.5 Receptions

‘O’ 41.5

QB Jayden Daniels
Daniels, building on a remarkable rookie season, led the Washington offense to a win in his first postseason appearance. He threw for 7.7 yards per attempt, his highest since Week 9, and tossed two touchdown passes, marking his sixth straight game with multiple scores. He also added 36 rushing yards. Throughout the season, Daniels has been impressive on third and fourth downs, ranking sixth in passer rating (110.7) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.26). In the fourth quarter, he ranked third in passer rating (114.0) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.33). Facing a tough Detroit defense that plays the most man coverage in the league (45.4%) and blitzes 33.7% of the time, Daniels will need to navigate a challenging matchup. He’s been solid against zone coverage, completing 74.6% of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt. However, his efficiency dips against man coverage, where he completes 59.2% of his passes for 6.5 yards per attempt, and he’s been sacked at a higher rate (12.3%). Daniels has thrived in the face of pressure, throwing a higher touchdown rate against man coverage (9.2%) compared to zone (1.7%). He's also been effective against the blitz, completing 64% of his passes and averaging 8.4 yards per attempt with an 8% touchdown rate. The aggressive Detroit defense also opens the door for Daniels to run. He leads the NFL in rushing yards when blitzed (213) and ranks second in yards against man coverage (241). Detroit has struggled against rushing quarterbacks, ranking 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (26.7 per game) and giving up 6 rushing touchdowns, tied for the third-most in the league.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 55.5 Rush Yards (-113)

RB Brian Robinson / RB Austin Ekeler
Brian Robinson has struggled with efficiency in recent games. Over the last five games, he has rushed 59 times for just 175 yards (3.0 YPC) and has been inefficient in terms of success rate, with a 30.5% success rate and 25.4% of his runs failing to gain positive yardage. Although he added 4 receptions for 22 yards in his most recent game, his touchdown production has been limited, scoring only twice in his last 9 games. Given Washington’s status as significant underdogs, this isn’t an ideal setup for Robinson to have a productive day on the ground, especially against a Lions defense that has been stout against the run. Austin Ekeler also had a subpar outing in his last game, rushing 8 times for 27 yards and catching 3-of-4 targets for 26 yards. The matchup against Detroit is a tough one, as they have been dominant against running backs this season. Despite facing injuries, the Lions lead the league with a 67% success rate against running back runs and have allowed just 4.2 YPC (12th) to running backs. They’ve been effective at limiting backfield production, allowing just 16.4 backfield runs per game, which is the lowest in the league, as teams often need to keep up with Detroit’s high-scoring offense.  Both backs face a tough road ahead. Robinson’s inefficiency and lack of touchdown production, coupled with a difficult matchup against Detroit, make him a risky bet for a breakout performance. Ekeler’s situation isn’t much better, with the Lions not only stifling the run game but also limiting running backs in the passing game. This puts both Robinson and Ekeler in a tough position, with limited avenues for production in a game where their teams are expected to be playing from behind.

Suggested Play
Robinson ‘U’ 11.5 Yard Longest Rush (-130)

WR Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin has been excellent in recent games, including a standout performance on Sunday night where he caught 7-of-10 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Despite earlier frustrations with Washington’s inability to regularly involve him in the offense, McLaurin has now seen double-digit targets in three of his past five games. This uptick in opportunities comes at an ideal time, as he is poised to take advantage of Detroit's defensive tendencies. Detroit has allowed the highest percentage of targets to wide receivers in the league, with teams targeting wideouts 69.7% of the time against them. Due to the Lions’ high-scoring offense, which forces teams into negative game scripts, they face the most wide receiver targets per game (23.8). Against Detroit, McLaurin should be in a favorable environment to see a high volume of targets. While McLaurin has not been dominant against man coverage this season, he does see a team-high 26.6% target share when facing man coverage, compared to a 22.6% rate against zone. What works in McLaurin’s favor is his significant touchdown potential. He leads Washington in end zone targets with 42.9%, ranking 6th in the league. Additionally, he has scored 12 touchdowns on those end zone targets, the most in the league. Although Detroit has been effective at limiting wide receiver touchdowns with a 3.2% touchdown rate allowed (2nd in the league), McLaurin’s involvement in red-zone opportunities should give him a solid chance to find the end zone.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+135)

WR Olamide Zaccheus
Since Noah Brown's injury, Olamide Zaccheus has been one of the players stepping up alongside Dyami Brown and Jameson Crowder to fill the void in Washington’s receiving corps. Against Detroit, Zaccheus has a promising role in an offense that is likely to see a high volume of passing due to the Lions' aggressive playstyle, which funnels target opportunities toward wide receivers. Zaccheus has played a notable role, running 24 routes against Detroit while Brown also operated in a similar capacity with 22 routes. McLaurin still led the team with 32 routes, but Zaccheus and Brown were the primary options behind him. While other receivers like Luke McCaffrey and Chris Moore had minimal involvement, Zaccheus and Brown have been key pieces in the offense. Against Detroit, Zaccheus stands out due to his usage in the slot, where he spent 69% of his snaps on Sunday. This makes Zaccheus an appealing option to exploit the matchup in the passing game. Detroit's defensive structure has created opportunities for wide receivers, and Zaccheus, with his slot-heavy role, should benefit from that. As a secondary option behind McLaurin, Zaccheus could see ample opportunities to make an impact, especially considering the high target volume teams face against Detroit’s defense.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz has had a quieter role recently, catching 2-of-4 targets for just 23 yards in his most recent game. Over the past month, he has consistently seen less than a 17% target share in three of his last four outings, which has limited his involvement in the offense. This makes it a challenging situation to expect significant production from him. However, Detroit's defense has been bolstered by the return of Alex Anzalone, which has made a noticeable impact on their coverage of tight ends. With Anzalone on the field, the Lions have allowed just 5.9 yards per target and a very low 1.7% touchdown rate to tight ends. Without him, those numbers increased to 8.7 yards per target and a higher 4.3% touchdown rate. Ertz, who isn't known for explosive plays, has also faced challenges against man coverage. He has been targeted on only 15.2% of his routes with a modest 0.93 yards per route run against man coverage, compared to his slightly better performance in zone coverage, where he is targeted 19.9% of the time for 1.50 yards per route. Given the matchup and Ertz's recent usage, it’s difficult to project him as a major factor against the Lions’ defense.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 14.5 Longest Reception (-122)

QB Jared Goff 
Jared Goff enters the postseason after setting career highs in completion percentage (72.4%), passing touchdowns (37), and yards per attempt (8.6). His efficiency on third and fourth downs has been exceptional, leading the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.48). Goff also improved under pressure this season, with career-high marks across the board, completing 53.4% of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt. If teams can't disrupt Goff, his passing game becomes extremely difficult to contain. He led the league in completing 79.5% of passes from a clean pocket for 9.3 yards per attempt and a 7.7% touchdown rate. Washington, which ranks eighth in pressure rate (34.1%) without blitzing, has the ability to generate pressure, but their secondary struggles when not pressuring the quarterback. When Washington hasn't pressured the quarterback, they've allowed 7.8 yards per attempt (27th) and a 5.4% touchdown rate (27th). Washington's defense has shifted toward more man coverage, ranking fifth in the NFL (34.7%). This could be a challenge for them against Goff, who has excelled against man coverage. He leads the league with a 141.1 passer rating when facing man, completing 72.2% of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and no interceptions. If Washington chooses to play man coverage, they could be in trouble against a quarterback who has been as efficient as Goff.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 37.5 Yard Longest Completion (-110)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs / RB David Montgomery
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both bring impressive production to the table as they face the Commanders in the postseason. Gibbs, in his second season, finished with 1,929 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns on 302 touches, averaging 6.4 yards per touch, the best among running backs with 100 or more rushes. He ranked highly across multiple metrics, including 3rd in yards per rush (5.6), 1st in EPA per rush (0.14), and 1st in the rate of runs for 10 or more yards (16.4%). Gibbs was incredibly efficient, with 28% of his runs resulting in a first down or touchdown. Even though Montgomery is expected to return this weekend, Gibbs averaged 16.3 touches per game when they shared the backfield, and his efficiency won't be diminished by a reduced workload. The Commanders’ defense allows 4.9 YPC (30th) and has a poor success rate of 58.6% (28th), making them vulnerable to dynamic runners like Gibbs. Montgomery, who was averaging 16.3 touches and 83.2 yards per game with 12 touchdowns before his MCL injury, is expected to be eased back into action. Prior to his injury, Montgomery had become a more versatile weapon, averaging 2.6 receptions per game. Despite the injury layoff, Montgomery’s success rate (48.1%) and ability to generate first downs or touchdowns (27%) make him an important factor in this game. He faces the same favorable matchup against Washington's defense, which struggles with stopping running backs, allowing 2.0 yards before contact per carry (31st) and a league-low 13.1% of runs gaining 10 or more yards. Montgomery could have a solid return, even if his workload is limited initially. Both Gibbs and Montgomery bring major touchdown potential, especially against a Washington defense that’s been prone to giving up big runs and struggling against explosive backfields. Gibbs is a home-run hitter, and Montgomery provides consistency and power in short-yardage and red-zone situations. Together, they represent a strong tandem for the Lions in this game.

Suggested Play
Montgomery ‘O’ 0.5 TD (-150)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown had another outstanding season in 2024, finishing with 115 receptions, 1,263 yards, and a career-high 12 touchdowns. He found his rhythm toward the end of the year, significantly improving his yardage output. Through the first nine games, he averaged 58.2 yards per game, but over the final eight games, he increased that number to 92.4 yards per game, only having one game with fewer than 60 yards during that stretch. St. Brown was heavily involved in Detroit's offense, commanding 27% of the team's targets, ranking fifth among all wide receivers. Washington, however, has struggled to contain top wide receivers, as demonstrated by their recent performance.  In the last four weeks, Washington's defense has struggled against prominent wideouts, allowing solid performances to Jalen Tolbert (4-98-0), Drake London (7-106-0), and A.J. Brown (8-97-1), highlighting their vulnerability against top-tier receivers. This bodes well for St. Brown, who has been a consistent and dynamic force in the Detroit passing attack, with that being said, the lines seem to be pretty on point and it is tough to find any real edge on St. Brown that I can endorse.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Jameson Williams
While Williams was known for his big-play ability, his development as a more well-rounded receiver was evident, especially after returning from his two-game suspension in Week 10. During the last nine games, he earned at least 19% of the team’s targets in eight of those contests. He saw a balanced usage with an 11.5% deep target rate and 34.4% target rate at intermediate levels. This marked a shift from his earlier part of the season, when only two of his first six games saw a target share over 13.6%.His growth as a full-field threat gave him a higher floor and more consistent involvement. He caught at least 5 passes in six of his final seven games. Against Washington, Williams' diverse usage could play a significant role. While the Commanders have struggled in general with defending the pass, they have been solid against deep throws. Washington has allowed just a 27.1% catch rate on throws 20 or more yards downfield (5th in the league), completing only 13 out of 48 such targets. However, Williams' ability to impact both deep and intermediate routes makes him a significant threat regardless of Washington's deep-ball defense.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 23.5 Yard Longest Reception (-115)

TE Sam LaPorta
Sam LaPorta had a solid rookie season with 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his second season saw a step back in overall production. He finished the year with 60 catches for 726 yards and 7 touchdowns, though he averaged more yards per catch (12.1) and yards per target (8.7) compared to his rookie year. However, LaPorta's target volume decreased, as he saw just 5.2 targets per game in his second season, down from 7.1 per game in his first. Toward the end of the season, LaPorta regained his role in the offense, finishing with an improved average of 4.8 catches and 53.3 yards per game, alongside 5 touchdowns in his final 8 games. During that stretch, he received 20.4% of the team's targets, the second-most behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, and was targeted on 21.4% of his routes, up from 12.3% of the targets and 14.1% of routes prior to that. LaPorta's increased involvement in the passing game is noteworthy, as he has now seen at least 6 targets in 8 consecutive games, demonstrating that he is a key part of the offense as the season progressed. In their matchup against Washington, LaPorta will face a defense that has allowed 7.5 yards per target to tight ends (17th in the league), along with an 8.4% touchdown rate (31st). These numbers suggest that while the Commanders are not the toughest against tight ends, they do give up a significant number of touchdowns to the position, which could present a valuable opportunity for LaPorta in the red zone.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+155)

Extremely intriguing game here in what is a matchup of the extremely upstart rookie QB in Jayden Daniels, who is fresh off a comeback win in his first postseason start, against the NFC favorites hungry to get back to the NFC Championship game for another shot at getting to the Super Bowl. This Lions team is no doubt a machine, and while I do think the atmosphere of Ford Field will offer a unique challenge for the young QB and the Washington offense, the spread is a bit much against a team that has shown it will not go away quietly. I like Detroit to take care of business, but not without a real fight.

Best Bet: ‘U’ 55.5
Lean: Commanders +9.5
Commanders 24 Lions 27

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

(Lions) Sam LaPorta +155
LaPorta will face a defense that has allowed 7.5 yards per target to tight ends (17th in the league), along with an 8.4% touchdown rate (31st). These numbers suggest that while the Commanders are not the toughest against tight ends, they do give up a significant number of touchdowns to the position, which could present a valuable opportunity for LaPorta in the red zone.

(Commanders) Terry McLaurin +135
McLaurin leads Washington in end zone targets with 42.9%, ranking 6th in the league. Additionally, he has scored 12 touchdowns on those end zone targets, the most in the league. Although Detroit has been effective at limiting wide receiver touchdowns with a 3.2% touchdown rate allowed (2nd in the league), McLaurin’s involvement in red-zone opportunities should give him a solid chance to find the end zone.

First Touchdown 

(Commanders) Terry McLaurin +1200
There’s no reason to believe this dynamic Commanders offense won’t score early. McLaurin has found the end zone 8 times in his past seven games and will go up against a Lions pass defense ranked 30th in the league.

Parlay 1 +309

Jared Goff ‘O’ 37.5 Longest Pass Completions

Jameson Williams ‘O’ 23.5 Longest Reception

David Montgomery ATD

Parlay 2 +1490

Jayden Daniels ‘O’ 54.5 Rush Yards

Terry McLaurin First TD