SNF Colts vs Vikings @8:20 EST

QB Joe Flacco

The Colts announced a change at the QB position during the week, electing to go away from 2nd year QB Anthony Richardson and instead going with veteran Joe Flacco in this game. Flacco is making his 4th start of the year, with the other 3 coming in relief for an injured Richardson. While Richardson has been the more explosive player for the Colts, the Colts have seen more down-to-down success with Flacco, with a 41.7% success rate on passing plays in comparison to 29.6% with Richardson. The Vikings are a heavy pass-funnel defense, and lead the NFL in pass attempts against with their heavy zone sets. This sets up well for the intermediate and short game that Flacco typically lives in. The one concern in this matchup, however, is Flacco’s mobility against a Brian Flores defense that blitzes at the second highest rate in the NFL.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 35.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

RB Jonathan Taylor

Taylor made his first start since he was injured following Week 4, and came back with a bang, rushing, rushing for 117 yards and dominating the workload, going for 21 touches in a back and forth game with Houston. When Taylor has been on the field, he has handled 89.2% of touches in the backfield (both carries and receptions behind the line of scrimmage). Minnesota has not allowed much on the ground, but much of this is because they have lead games so often this year and have pushed teams away from the rushing game, however they have not been bad on a per carry basis either. They have allowed 3.86 YPC, which is the 3rd fewest in the NFL. They also have the highest stuff rate in the NFL at 49.7% (T1 with the Chiefs). This is a strength vs strength matchup, but given the way teams have attacked Minnesota through the air, it does not feel like a big Taylor game is really in the works.

Suggested Bet:
Pass

WR Josh Downs

Josh Downs is the clear-cut WR1 in Indianapolis. He has been targeted slightly less by Flacco than he has by Richardson, but he still remains the number one option for Flacco and has actually seen more efficiency on targets from Flacco as opposed to Richardson. Minnesota has been crushed by slot receivers this year, allowing 6.6 receptions per game to WRs lined up in the slot. Downs has also been targeted often by Flacco when he has faced pressure, getting 33.3% of pressured pass attempts in his direction. This is significant given the amount of pressure we can expect the blitz heavy Vikings to throw at Flacco tonight.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (+105)

WR Michael Pittman

Pittman has had a rough go of it in 2024. He has not been targeted nearly as much as he has in prior years, and has been targeted even less with Flacco in comparison to Richardson (27.2% with Flacco and 23.7% with Richardson. He should get some targets at him tonight against the Minnesota defense which will funnel towards passes and in potentially a losing game-script. It is also worth noting that he has a high inaccurate target rate with Richardson of 17.6%, and with Flacco being slightly more accurate between the hashes, he could see some positive variation at some point. With that in mind, it is tough to have much trust in Michael Pittman right now.

Suggested Bet:
Pass

QB Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold has regressed slightly over the past couple of weeks, but he is still far from the reason for the Vikings recent struggles the past 2 weeks. The coverage that Darnold has seen the most success in so far this year has been against the Cover 3. Darnold has a 78.8 completion % against Cover-3, which is the highest rate in football. He also has a 8.94 YPA against the coverage, which is the 6th highest in the NFL. This is welcome news for Darnold and the Vikings, as the Colts are in Cover-3 on 20.1% of snaps, which is the 6th highest in the NFL. The Colts also haven't been able to generate too much pressure, only getting to the QB on 29.7% of snaps, which ranks 24th in the NFL. In terms of props, the issue here is I see these numbers for Darnold as very high with Minnesota as a 5.5 point favorite. The Minnesota offense has gotten conservative with leads, and with Sam Darnold’s pass attempt line being set at 31.5, I expect an efficient first half and a quieter 2nd half.

Suggested Bet:
‘U’ 31.5 Pass Attempts (-105)’

RB Aaron Jones

Jones struggled last week against the Rams, which is not necessarily a great sign against a Rams rush defense that had some players banged up in the front 7. With that being said, he has established himself clearly as the Vikings workhorse, and had 19 carries in that last Thursday night game. In the last 3 games, he took 86.8%, 89.4%, and 100% of the RB touches in the last 3 weeks. The Colts have not necessarily been great defensively stopping the run either. On the year, Indianapolis is allowing 4.38 YPC (16th in NFL), and also are allowing the most backfield carries per game at 32.5. The Vikings do have other options in the backfield such as Ty Chandler and Cam Akers, and I do not expect the same workload this week, or at least the same rush share. Because of that, I will stay away from Jones’ attempts, but lean towards his yards assuming the Vikings will be playing with a lead.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 71.5 rushing yards (-120)

WR Justin Jefferson

Jefferson has been absolutely phenomenal this season, averaging 92.3 receiving yards per game. He has 35.2% of the team’s targets, and although he has not been targeted quite as much against Cover-3 which he will see often against the Colts, he still has been getting his fair share of action with 30.0% of the team targets against the coverage. The Colts have been decimated by opposing team’s WR1, giving up 11.1 yards per target, and allow 41.2% of opposing QB targets to go to WRs lined up wide, as Jefferson typically does. I expect a big game early in this game from Jetta tonight.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 44.5 1H receiving yards (-120)

TE TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson had the highest target share of all NFL TEs a year ago, and is making his return in this Sunday night game. While it is tough to predict his playing time as this will be his first game back in a long time, this potentially could be a good matchup for Hockenson against a Colts defense which has struggled against the TE position, giving up 7.7 yards per target at opposing tight ends (12th highest in NFL). As a prolific red zone target, I see him used in this area when he does get on the field, and wouldn’t mind taking a shot at his touchdown prop in this spot.

Suggested Bet:
1+ TD (+250)

Joe Flacco has proven he can run an NFL offense successfully at this point in his career earlier this season with the Colts, and last season during the Browns playoff run. He should be able to have moments of success here against a Vikings defense that has struggled with what Flacco can do well. On the other side, i just don’t trust the Colts defense at all unfortunately, regardless of how the Vikings decide to attack them. The Colts should be able to score, but not enough.

Best Bets (Over 46.5 -120)
Lean (Vikings -5.5 -115)
Vikings 30 Colts 23