QB Bo Nix
Although generally speaking, Bo Nix has had an incredibly impressive rookie year, it is also true that he showed some real vulnerabilities last week in the Broncos win at home against the Colts. He threw just 130 yards in that game, and averaged only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. He also has thrown 5 INTs over the last 2 weeks. Overall Nix has a YPA of 6.36, which ranks 33rd out of 43 NFL QBs with at least 100 dropbacks on the year. He also has 264 rushing yards, which is the 10th most in the NFL among QBs. He should see a good amount of zone defense against the Chargers. The Chargers are in zone defense on 77.2% of their defensive snaps, which ranks 3rd highest in the NFL. Nix has not been much different against zone defense, with a 6.68 YPA against zone, ranking 26th in the NFL. Bo Nix also has thrown 7 out of his 10 interceptions against zone defense. This has been a solid Chargers pass defense overall, with the team allowing just a 6.79 YPA to opposing QBs on the season. It is clear defenses have adjusted to Nix in recent weeks, and this Chargers defense does not allow much through the air. But for this play we will go back to the ground game, with a Chargers defense that has struggled against opposing QBs on the ground, giving up the 11th most QB rush yards in the NFL. Nix also went for 61 rush yards in the first meeting.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 21.5 Rush Yards (-120)

RB Javonte Williams / Jaleel McLaughlin / Audric Estime
Denver’s running back group continues to struggle with inefficiency. Jaleel McLaughlin led the team on Sunday with 10 touches for 34 yards but left the game with a quad injury that could sideline him for Thursday. Javonte Williams played the most snaps (33) but managed just 23 yards on 8 touches, while Audric Estime added 18 yards on 6 touches in relief of McLaughlin. Williams has been particularly inefficient, averaging 3.5 YPC this season and producing just 14 yards on 18 carries over his last three games. Despite these struggles, Williams has remained a trusted option in pass protection and short-yardage situations, which offers some value to the offense. Estime, though used sparingly with only 46 rush attempts this year, has shown slightly better efficiency, including a higher success rate (55.2% against zone and 41.7% against man) and more yards after contact per rush compared to Williams. Collectively, the backfield managed just 74 yards on 16 touches in their previous matchup against this week’s opponent. The Chargers have struggled against the run this year, with a 4.70 YPC allowed (7th most in NFL), so the matchup is solid. However given the questions at rush share between these three backs, it is hard to have a confident lean.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Courtland Sutton
Sutton leads this Broncos WR corps by a wide margin. His 878 yards receiving on the season are more than double the next WR, which is DeVaughn Vele with 377. Sutton is running a route on 77.9% of Nix’s dropbacks, and has averaged 2.11 yards per route run. Sutton has 47.5% of the Broncos’ air yards, which is the 2nd highest share among all WRs in the league. I do not necessarily like Sutton in terms of yards in this matchup, however, as he has not had the same success against zone defense (which the Chargers are in at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL). Sutton has just a 57.3% catch rate vs zone and a 1.87 YPRR against zone. One area I do like Sutton though is in his ability to find the end zone. He has received 46.4% of Denver’s end zone targets, which is the 4th highest share of all WRs in the league. The Chargers meanwhile are giving up an average of 13.4 yards per catch to WRs in the wide alignment, where Sutton lines up on 80.6% of his routes run.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+187)

WR DeVaughn Vele / WR Marvin Mims
Denver’s wide receiver room remains uncertain behind Courtland Sutton, who led the unit with a route run on 97% of dropbacks Sunday against the Colts. Devaughn Vele followed with 67.6%, while Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey each saw significantly less involvement, at 32.4%. Vele, once a hot target in this offense, has struggled recently, managing just a single catch for 16 yards over the past two games, though he has been more effective against zone defense, which he has seen 21.5% target share against, and will see a lot of zone against the Chargers. Mims, on the other hand, continues to flash explosive potential, with a knack for big plays and creative deployment out of the backfield, logging 25 snaps there over the last five games. If Jaleel McLaughlin is unavailable, as he is questionable in this one Mims could see a larger role both as a WR and in the backfield. While he leads the group in efficiency with 2.02 YPRR and a team-high target rate of 23.9%, his limited opportunities keep his overall impact constrained. 

Suggested Play
Mims ‘O’ 24.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Adam Trautman
The tight end position simply has not been a significant part of this Broncos’ offense this season. Trautman. Trautman is the Broncos’ leading tight end, but even he has just 11 receptions for 178 total yards on the season. Against zone, which he will see a lot of in this matchup, Trautman has only a 24.9% route rate. He has not been particularly efficient when targeted either, averaging only 1.59 yards per route run. There are no yards lines currently out for Trautman, and sometimes we like to target TEs in touchdown markets. However in this spot there is not much to work with, as the Chargers have given the fewest TDs to TEs up in all of the NFL.

Suggested Play
Pass

QB Justin Herbert
After a nice stretch towards the middle of the season, Herbert has tailed off a bit in recent weeks, with 218, 147, 213, and 195 passing yards in the past four games. Herbert has a YPA of 7.42 on the year, which ranks 16th out of 42 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks on the season. He has been incredibly careful with the ball, and has only thrown 2 interceptions all year in comparison to 16 TDs. Against Denver, Herbert will see his share of man coverage. The Broncos are in man on 35.7% of their defensive snaps, which is the 5th highest rate in the NFL. This is not great news for Herbert, who has not been dynamic at all against man coverage. Out of 22 QBs who have seen at least 100 dropbacks against man coverage, Herbert ranks 20th in completion % at only 50.0%. Herbert also has just a 6.00 YPA against man coverage. Patrick Surtain who has been one of the best CBs in the NFL this year. He was listed as questionable during the week, but it has been announced that he will play on Thursday night. Herbert theoretically should go under this line based on matchup alone as I don’t expect an efficient performance. However, the Broncos have one of the most significant pass funnels in the NFL, and are allowing 36.4 pass attempts per game, which is the 4th most in the NFL. In addition to that the Chargers are without a clear cut RB in this game, so it is possible the volume will carry Herbert to some numbers.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 31.5 pass attempts (-120)

RB Gus Edwards / RB Kimani Vidal
The Chargers’ running back situation remains unproductive and inefficient, and it looks even more bleak now in the absence of JK Dobbins. Over the past three games, the group has combined for just 154 yards, with Gus Edwards contributing 91 yards (combining rushing and receiving yards) on 24 touches and Kimani Vidal adding 63 yards on 15 touches. While Vidal saw a season-high 32 snaps on Sunday compared to Edwards' 13, Edwards still led in touches, 8 to 5. Vidal’s most notable performance this season came in Week 6, when he totaled 51 yards and caught a 38-yard touchdown on his first NFL touch against Denver. The Broncos have been strong against the run, allowing only 3.84 yards per carry to running backs, but they’ve struggled to defend backs in the passing game, ranking 30th in receiving yards allowed to the position. This is where I see Vidal, who has a higher ceiling as a pass catcher, getting some great value on his receiving line and in particular with Herbert likely throwing the ball often.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 8.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Ladd McConkey
Chargers rookie wideout Ladd McConkey is fully healthy heading into Week 16 against the Broncos, having healed from the knee and shoulder injuries that kept him out in Week 14. In his Week 15 return, McConkey caught 5 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown, reaffirming his role as Justin Herbert's go-to target. Incredibly reliable, McConkey has logged at least five catches in 7 of his last 8 games and leads all rookie receivers with an impressive 2.33 YPRR. McConkey is spending nearly 70% of his snaps in the slot, and he’s likely to avoid direct coverage from Denver’s top cornerback, Patrick Surtain, if Surtain is active. Still, the Broncos have excelled at limiting production from slot receivers, allowing the seventh-fewest yards and the lowest touchdown rate in the league to that position. In their previous matchup, McConkey managed four catches for 43 yards on eight targets and will aim to make a bigger impact this time around. On volume alone, I expect McConkey to record quite a few catches in this one.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-146)

WR Quentin Johnston
Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston has been a consistent red-zone threat this season, scoring his eighth touchdown on Sunday while catching five of ten targets for 45 yards. His production has heavily relied on finding the end zone, with over a third of his total yardage coming from touchdowns. Johnston’s impact tends to vary significantly—he’s far more productive in games where he scores than when he doesn’t. When these teams met in Week 6, Johnston caught three of four targets for 22 yards. Heading into Week 16 against a strong Denver secondary, Johnston’s role as a key target in the Chargers' passing game will give him opportunities to contribute, especially in situations where the team shifts toward an air-heavy approach. Johnston unfortunately will draw a lot of Patrick Surtain in this game, but we can expect Johnston to get a chance or two at and end zone ball as a guy who already has 8 TDs on the year.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+260)

TE Stone Smartt
Smartt took on a larger role last week with Will Dissly unavailable (and with Hayden Hurst also on IR), catching five of six targets for 50 yards, though he did fumble. This marked his second consecutive game hitting 50 yards, something Dissly has only done twice all year. In Week 15, Smartt ran routes on 70.3% of the team’s dropbacks and saw 18.8% of the team targets, ranking 16th and 11th among tight ends in those metrics, respectively. With Dissly listed as a non-participant in Monday’s walkthrough, Smartt could once again see increased volume. However, while the Broncos allow tight ends a substantial 24.1% of their targets, they’ve been exceptionally effective at limiting their output, giving up a league-low 5.4 yards per target and ranking 2nd in points allowed per target (1.42). Regardless, I like the volume to carry him in this spot.

Suggested Bet
‘O’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Neither offense really matches well with the other one in what I expect to be a defensive slugfest in this pivotal division matchup as the season’s end draws near. One thing I think could make a difference here however is simply the home-field. Herbert has been comfortable at home this year, while Bo Nix and the Broncos have averaged nearly a touchdown less on the road. Look for the zone heavy Chargers defense force the rookie QB into a costly mistake in a low scoring contest.

Best Bet: Chargers -2.5 -115
Lean: ‘U’ 42.5 -110
Chargers 20 Broncos 14

Anytime TD Picks

(Chargers) Quentin Johnston +255
Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston has been a consistent red-zone threat this season, scoring his eighth touchdown on Sunday while catching five of ten targets for 45 yards. His production has heavily relied on finding the end zone, with over a third of his total yardage coming from touchdowns.

(Broncos) Courtland Sutton +187
One area I like Sutton in this game is in his ability to find the end zone. He has received 46.4% of Denver’s end zone targets, which is the 4th highest share of all WRs in the league. The Chargers meanwhile are giving up an average of 13.4 yards per catch to WRs in the wide alignment, where Sutton lines up on 80.6% of his routes run.

1st TD Picks

(Chargers) Ladd McConkey +800
The Broncos have struggled in opening quarters, giving up the first score in eight of their 14 games this season. With J.K. Dobbins sidelined and the Chargers' running game struggling, the offense has leaned heavily on Justin Herbert's passing in the red zone. Over their last three games, four of the Chargers' five touchdowns have been passing plays, increasing McConkey's chances of being the first to find the end zone.

(Broncos) Courtland Sutton +850
Banking on a Broncos running back to score first seems unlikely. A more promising option is Courtland Sutton, who has been Bo Nix’s primary red-zone target, commanding a team-high 45.2% of targets in that area. Sutton has also scored four times in his last five games, making him the team’s most reliable option near the goal line.

Parlay 1 +645

Justin Herbert ‘O’ 32.5 Pass Attempts

Marvin Mims ‘O’ 23.5 Receiving Yards

Courtland Sutton ‘O’ 0.5 Receiving TDs

Parlay 2 +270

Ladd McConkey ‘O’ 6.5 Receptions 

Bo Nix ‘O’ 19.5 Rush Yards

Parlay 3 +875

Kimani Vidal ‘O’ 10.5 Receiving Yards

Ladd McConkey ATD

Courtland Sutton ATD

QB CJ Stroud
CJ Stroud is coming off one of his lowest outputs of the season last week yardage wise against the Dolphins, racking up only 133 pass yards, although he did throw for 2 TDs in the game. He sees a tough Chiefs defense in Saturday’s game. The Chiefs have been effective at generating pressure on QBs. They are bringing a blitz on 30.6% of defensive snaps. Stroud has shown significant regression against pressure this year, posting 8.9 YPA against it last year but falling to 6.5 YPA this year, which ranks just 22nd in the NFL. The Chiefs also are in man coverage on 34.7%, which is the 6th highest rate in the NFL. Stroud has had better success overall against man this year, with 7.26 YPA against man (14th ranked in NFL out of 40 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks). Unfortunately for Stroud, this Chiefs defense is also excellent while in man coverage and in general against the pass, allowing only 6.90 YPA on the entire season. These conflicting signals given Stroud's strengths meeting the Chiefs strength make this an incredibly difficult pick to make.

Suggested Play
Pass

RB Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon had a tough outing on Sunday, rushing 12 times for just 23 yards while adding 33 yards on 5 catches from 6 targets. Despite leaving the game for a minute with an ankle issue, he returned to finish and appears to have avoided a significant injury. According to DeMeco Ryans, Mixon came out fine, though his practice participation will be watched leading up to Saturday. Mixon’s workload remains a key part of Houston’s offense, as he handled 94.4% of the backfield touches on Sunday and has accounted for 93.1% of the team’s running back touches over the past 8 games. However, his efficiency has been a concern, rushing for fewer than 2.0 yards per carry in three of his last five games, all against strong run defenses like Detroit, Tennessee, and Miami. He faces another tough matchup this week, as the Chiefs have limited running backs to just 3.7 yards per carry (2nd in the league) and rank among the best in success rate against the run (66.1%) and yards allowed after contact (2.43 per carry). While Kansas City’s defense has been tough overall, they have allowed a rushing touchdown in 4 of their last 5 games, and, Mixon’s ability to find the end zone could again be critical in a game where yardage may be hard to come by.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (-120)

WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins had a modest game in terms of yardage on Sunday, recording four catches for just 17 yards, but he found the end zone twice. With 6 touchdowns across 9 games this season, Collins has proven to be a consistent scoring threat for the Texans. He also has a YPRR of 3.18, which is extremely high. He excels against both man and zone coverage, posting 3.15 yards per route and a 32.6% target rate versus man, along with 3.23 yards per route and a 26.9% target rate against zone. The Chiefs’ defense, which ranks 5th in limiting production from primary receivers and allows just 6.7 yards per target to WR1s, presents a formidable challenge. However, recent performances by receivers like Jerry Jeudy and Jakobi Meyers suggest that Collins has opportunities to make an impact, particularly if Kansas City maintains its aggressive coverage schemes. His versatility and effectiveness in multiple situations make him a crucial part of the Texans' offensive approach and we should expect Stroud to look for him often in this game.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 84.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+170)

WR Tank Dell
Tank Dell has been a key contributor to the team's offense this season. Over nine games, he has recorded 6 touchdowns and consistently made an impact against both man and zone coverage. Dell has been particularly effective against man coverage, with a 32.6% target rate and an impressive 3.15 YPRR, which even exceeds Nico Collins. Recently Dell has been added to the injury report due to a back issue, leaving his availability uncertain. The Texans are monitoring his recovery closely, and his participation will depend on how he progresses in the coming days. Dell's ability to return to the lineup will be crucial for maintaining the Texans' offensive rhythm. Even if he does play, he could see a dip in his routes run or he may not be as explosive when he is on the field. He could be 100% healthy as well, but his uncertainty makes it tough to have a strong lean on this play.

Suggested Play
None

TE Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz caught 2-of-4 targets for 13 yards in his most recent game, continuing a quiet season in which he is averaging 3.1 receptions for 31.2 yards per game and has scored just 1 touchdown. His production has been limited, and he has surpassed 30 receiving yards in only 6 games this season. This week, Schultz faces a Kansas City defense that has struggled against tight ends. The Chiefs have allowed tight ends to post 9.1 yards per target, the second-highest rate in the league, and a 77.4% catch rate, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL. Despite these favorable defensive tendencies, Schultz's consistency and role in the Texans’ offense remain question marks heading into the matchup, but the number set here is definitely low enough to where it wouldn’t take a lot for the cover, and factor in the fact that the Chiefs have been vulnerable with tight ends anyway.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes left last week’s game with an ankle injury, which, while not considered serious, puts doubt on his availability for Saturday. The Chiefs are navigating a tough part of their schedule, with a short turnaround for a Wednesday game in Week 17 and 2 tough opponents ahead. They’re also balancing the need to maintain their 2 game lead over Buffalo for the AFC’s top seed. Mahomes’ mobility is  a key part of his game, but it will likely be affected even if he plays, which could be a problem behind a line that has already allowed him to be sacked a career-high 35 times. He’s also taking hits at an unprecedented rate of 7.3 dropbacks per game, and Houston’s defense isn’t likely to make things easier. The Texans rank fourth in sack rate (8.7%) and ninth in quarterback hits per game (6.1). Mahomes has also struggled under pressure at times, completing just 3-of-8 passes against the blitz last week. If Mahomes can’t go, Carson Wentz will take over. While Wentz brings experience, expecting him to elevate the offense is unrealistic given the Chiefs’ overall inconsistency this season. Houston’s defense, while allowing a league-low 57.7% completion rate, has been vulnerable to big plays, giving up a 5.8% touchdown rate (30th). With the playoffs on the horizon, Kansas City may opt for a cautious approach to protect Mahomes, even if he’s cleared to play. Overall the Texans are allowing only 6.52 YPA, which is 3rd lowest in the league, and I think the Chiefs will focus more on running the ball as a way to protect Mahomes.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 224.5 Pass Yards (-115)

RB Isiah Pacheco / RB Kareem Hunt
The Chiefs' backfield remains a frustrating split, with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt each logging 28 snaps and 14 touches last week. Hunt tallied 49 yards, while Pacheco managed 47, continuing a trend of falling production. Since returning, Pacheco has accounted for 44.4%, 66.7%, and 46.7% of the backfield touches in consecutive games, struggling to establish himself as the clear lead back. His inefficiency has continued, averaging 3.9 YPC on 34 attempts, with runs of 10+ yards occurring on just 2.9% of his carries. Samaje Perine's role as the passing-down back further limits Pacheco’s opportunities, and with Patrick Mahomes’ status uncertain, the offense could face additional struggles. To complicate things, Houston's run defense has been solid, allowing just 3.97 yards per carry and ranking seventh in fewest rushing points allowed to backfields. Pacheco will need to step up significantly to deliver in such a tough matchup. The Chiefs will look to the run game often in this game to take the stress off Mahomes, but I actually like Hunt’s chances to get a majority of the workload based on last week’s splits and also the fact that they are going to want Pacheco at full health for the playoffs.

Suggested Play
Hunt ‘O’ 25.5 Rush Yards (-120)

WR DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins caught 5-of-6 targets for 36 yards in Cleveland, but his role in Kansas City's offense remains limited. He played only 50% of the offensive snaps on Sunday and has yet to exceed 70% of snaps in any game since joining the team. While Hopkins has been targeted on 25.4% of his routes, his limited playing time forces him to rely heavily on efficiency and scoring opportunities. Kansas City’s offense has struggled to maximize Hopkins' potential, with the receiver seeing 15 targets over the past two games, but turning that into just 78 yards. Despite decent target volume, his impact on the game has not been that significant, raising questions about his role moving forward, especially with the uncertainty surrounding quarterback Patrick Mahomes' health. If Mahomes is unavailable, the team’s reliance on its passing game could decrease further, making Hopkins' production even harder to predict. Houston’s defense, while allowing a league-low 56% completion rate to wide receivers, has also given up a 6.7% touchdown rate, offering Hopkins a slim path to capitalize if he finds the end zone. Give me an under on Hopkins especially considering the fact we are projecting a lower pass volume out of Mahomes, or will see Carson Wentz.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 39.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Xavier Worthy
Worthy posted a season-high 11 targets on Sunday, catching 6 for 46 yards, including a 21-yard touchdown on a latera;. He finished the game with 3 carries for 30 yards and another TD. While it hasn’t been perfect, Worthy has established a solid floor over the second half of the season. Over his last five games, Worthy leads the team with 248 receiving yards, averaging 4.8 catches and 49.6 yards per game. His 35 targets in that stretch rank 2nd on the team, behind only Travis Kelce. Despite his steady production, Worthy has yet to consistently break out, with multiple games under 6 yards Houston’s defense, while strong in general, has given up a league-high 13 touchdowns to wide receivers from outside the red zone, providing an opportunity for big plays. However, the recent uncertainty surrounding Patrick Mahomes' injury makes it difficult to tell Worthy’s potential, especially against a defense with the lowest opponent passer rating. Worthy has shown promise as a rookie, but his role remains volatile, and he’ll likely need more consistency and better quarterback play to fully capitalize on his potential in the future.
Suggested Play
Pass

TE Travis Kelce
Kelce caught 4 of 8 targets for 27 yards on Sunday, continuing a stretch of underwhelming performances as the season closes. Over the last five weeks, his output has been inconsistent. During this period, Kelce has seen 21% of the team’s targets and averaged 1.14 yards per route run, a drop from the 31.4% target share and 1.89 yards per route run he posted earlier in the season after Rashee Rice's injury. Despite playing 85.3% of the team’s dropbacks, Kelce has struggled with a career-low 8.4 YPC , and his need for higher volume has been held back by a decrease in opportunities. With the uncertainty around Mahomes, Kelce remains a steady but lower-impact option. Houston’s defense has been more lenient against tight ends recently, which could provide an opportunity for Kelce to regain form. In their last five games, the Texans have allowed an average of 6.6 catches for 71.2 yards per game to tight ends. Kelce should get plenty of designed plays against the defense that has struggled with TEs, so I do like his receptions in this one.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (-150)

I do expect Mahomes to play in this game, but it certainly will be the case that he is either limited in some capacity, or that the Chiefs will be cautious with him to prevent further injury. The thing is, the Chiefs have won all year on the backs of their run game and of their defense, and with a good matchup against Stroud and the Texans offense I think there is an excellent chance of that happening again, especially at home where the Chiefs are still yet to lose.

Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 -125
Lean: ‘U’ 41.5 -110
Chiefs 20 Texans 17

Anytime TDs
(Texans) Joe Mixon -120
While Kansas City’s defense has been tough overall, they have allowed a rushing touchdown in 4 of their last 5 games, and, Mixon’s ability to find the end zone could again be critical in a game where yardage may be hard to come by. Mixon also has one of the highest rush shares inside the 5 yard line in the entire NFL.

(Texans) Nico Collins +170
With 6 touchdowns across 9 games this season, Collins has proven to be a consistent scoring threat for the Texans. He also has a YPRR of 3.18, which is extremely high. He excels against both man and zone coverage, posting 3.15 yards per route and a 32.6% target rate versus man, along with 3.23 yards per route and a 26.9% target rate against zone. With the decline of Tank Dell, Collins should see many chances.

First TD

(Texans) Joe Mixon +550
Mixon is one of the league’s leading TD scorers, and gets virtually all of the workload for the team at RB. He has scored 12 touchdowns this year and is a threat in both the passing and rushing game. He also has scored 4 first quarter TDs on the year. The issue is that the Chiefs have typically scored first this season, but odds like this on a 12 TD scorer are hard to pass up on.

(Chiefs) Travis Kelce +900
Kelce remains a steady but lower-impact option. Houston’s defense has been more lenient against tight ends recently, which could provide an opportunity for Kelce to regain form. In their last five games, the Texans have allowed an average of 6.6 catches for 71.2 yards per game to tight ends. Kelce should get plenty of designed plays against the defense that has struggled with TEs

Parlay 1 +490

Patrick Mahomes ‘U’ 225.5 Pass Yards

Kareem Hunt ‘O’ 26.5 Rush Yards

Joe Mixon ATD

Parlay 2 +1625

Joe Mixon 1st TD

Patrick Mahomes ‘U’ 33.5 Pass Attempts

Nico Collins ‘O’ 84.5 Receiving Yardss

Parlay 3 +1360

Nico Collins ‘O’ 7.5 Receptions

Travis Kelce ‘O’ 7.5 Receptions

QB Russell Wilson
Russ is averaging 239 passing yards per game, 8.14 YPA and has thrown 13 TDs. His deep ball is back, averaging the 2^nd most passing yards per game on targets 20+ yards down field (73.4 YPG). He also has the highest completion rate on these throws out of QBs with 10+ attempts of 20+ (55.9%). However, he has not had as much success in the 2 games without his main downfield target Pickens, averaging 47.5 passing yards per game on targets 20+ yards down field. Pickens is out again for the 3^rd consecutive week. He’ll face a Ravens defense that allows the most passing yards per game on the season (276.9), but they have been better as of late, not allowing a QB to throw for 225+ passing yards in 4 straight games. On the season, the Ravens run single-high 53.8% of the time and man at a 30.7% rate, both towards the middle of the pack. Looking at the past 4 weeks, where they have had better success, they have leaned more towards single-high (59%) and man coverage (38.1%). Against single-high, Russ averages 8.49 YPA, has a 59.8% completion rate, and a QB rating of 102.4. That compares to 7.72 YPA, a 70.4% completion rate and a QB rating of 103.7 against two-high. Looking at the splits between man and zone, Russ averages 10.55 YPA and has a QB rating of 114.1 against man, compared to 7.38 YPA and a QB rating of 95.9 against zone. Without the presence of Pickens and a better Ravens pass defense as of late, I’m inclined to fade Wilson.

Suggested Pick
“U” 209.5 Pass Yds (-113)

RB Najee Harris
Najee averages 63.6 rushing yards per game on 3.89 YPC. He has rushed for 5 TDs this season. In the past 2 weeks, Warren has out snapped Harris, but those were both losses. When Warren is active, Najee averages a 36% snap share in losses, compared to a 51.3% snap share in wins. The Steelers are 6.5-point underdogs. The Ravens allow the least rushing yards per game (80.7), as well as the least YPC (3.50). Only 12.8% of their yards allowed have come from explosive runs, lowest rate in the league. However, the Ravens allow the 5^th most receiving yards to opposing RBs. I’d target Warren over Najee in the passing game as Warren has dominated route share the past 2 weeks (48.3% and 53.8% respectively), compared to Najee’s 13.8% and 19.2% route share rates respectively. Najee averages 13.9 receiving yards per game with Warren, compared to 44.5 receiving yards per game without. Najee’s lines in both rushing and receiving are so low that I’d prefer passing on him.

Suggested Pick
Pass

RB Jaylen Warren
Warren averages 30.9 rushing yards per game on 4.08 YPC. He has rushed for 1 TD this season. In the past 2 weeks, Warren has out snapped Harris, both were losses. Warren averages a 40.6% snap share in wins, compared to a 55% snap share in losses. The Steelers are 6.5-point underdogs, so we’d expect Warren to see increased opportunities. The Ravens allow the least rushing yards per game (80.7), as well as the least YPC (3.50). Only 12.8% of their yards allowed have come from explosive runs, which is the lowest rate in the league. However, the Ravens allow the 5^th most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs. In the past 2 weeks, Warren has dominated the passing down backfield snaps and has seen a route rate of 48.3% and 53.8% respectively. He did not have much production, but those were in below average matchups. Now he faces a Ravens defense that he’s had at least 3 receptions in 4 straight and 16+ receiving yards in 5 straight. Running backs have a 60% hit rate and average 8.8 yards over their receiving line against the Ravens.

Suggested Pick
“O” 19.5 Rec Yds (-115)
25+ Rec Yds (+130)

WR Calvin Austin
Calvin Austin averages 32.3 receiving yards per game, 1.69 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. His role should increase without the Steelers top receiver, George Pickens. 2 weeks ago, in the 1^st game without Pickens, Austin saw 4 targets but only had a 35% snap share due to an injury. Last week against the Eagles, Calvin caught 5 receptions for 65 yards. He saw his highest snap share of the season at 81%. He should continue to be used in a large way as the top weapon for Russell Wilson without Pickens. Calvin has lined up in the slot on 61.2% of his routes. The Ravens allow the 6^th lowest target share to the slot (29.5%). On the season, the Ravens run single-high 53.8% of the time and man at a 30.7% rate, both towards the middle of the pack. Looking at the past 4 weeks, where they have had better success in pass defense, they have leaned more towards single-high (59%) and man coverage (38.1%). Against single-high, Calvin has negative splits averaging 1.15 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. He also has negative splits against man, averaging 1.14 YPRR and 14% TPRR. Despite these negative splits, I see enough volume without Pickens and a low line to recommend his overs.

Suggested Pick
“O” 38.5 Rec Yds (-110)
50+ Rec Yds (+160)
60+ Rec Yds (+240)

WR Mike Williams
Mike Williams is averaging 1.19 YPRR and has been targeted on 10% of his routes as a member of the Steelers. His route share has slowly increased, from 41.4% in week 14 to 57.7% in week 15. I’d expect him to be in the mid-60s this week. With Pickens continued absence, the Steelers are in desperate need of another weapon to step up. Mike has boom or bust potential. The Ravens allow the 4^th most receiving yards to WR. 80% of Mike’s routes have come out wide as a member of the Steelers. The Ravens allow the 6^th most receiving yards per game to wide alignment (118.5). On the season, the Ravens run single-high 53.8% of the time and man at a 30.7% rate, both towards the middle of the pack. Looking at the past 4 weeks, where they have had better success in pass defense, they have leaned more towards single-high (59%) and man coverage (38.1%). Against single-high, Mike averages 1.17 YPRR and has been targeted on 10% of his routes, not much change from his overall rates. Against man, Mike averages 1.20 YPRR and a 16% TPRR, slight increase in production and volume. Overall, this is a boom or bust spot for Mike, as he’s the best deep ball weapon for Wilson. It would only take one for Williams to have a productive day, but there’s a lot of uncertainty.

Suggested Pick
Anytime TD (+480)

TE Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth averages 35.3 receiving yards per game, 1.51 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. In the past 2 weeks without George Pickens, he is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate behind Calvin Austin at 20%. Pickens remains out this week. He has been productive in terms of touchdown production, ranking tied for 4^th amongst TEs with 6 TDs. The Ravens are allowing the 6^th most receiving yards to TE, but the 13^th fewest TDs to TE. Pat primarily runs his routes out of the slot, at a 52.3% rate. He has lined up inline on 28.4% and out wide on 19% of his routes. The Ravens allow the 6^th lowest target share to the slot (29.5%) and are middle of the pack in target share to inline receivers (11.1%). On the season, the Ravens run single-high 53.8% of the time and man at a 30.7% rate, both towards the middle of the pack. Looking at the past 4 weeks, where they have had better success in pass defense, they have leaned more towards single-high (59%) and man coverage (38.1%). Against single-high, Pat sees negative splits averaging 1.38 YPRR and 13% TPRR. He also has negative splits against man, averaging 1.36 YPRR and 11% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“U” 35.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Anytime TD (+325)

QB Lamar Jackson
Lamar has had a superb season, averaging 255.7 passing yards per game on 8.86 YPA and is 2^nd in the league in TD passing at 34. He’s also averaging 53.1 rushing yards per game. He’ll face their division rival Steelers, a team that he’s struggled against (in terms of Lamar standards). The Steelers allow the 10^th most passing yards per game (239.1) and the 6^th least rushing yards to QB (13.86 YPG). The Steelers play the highest rate of single-high (67.4%) in the NFL and allow 0.49 fantasy points per dropback when in it, which is middle of the pack. The Steelers played this at an even higher rate when these 2 teams played earlier this season, at a 77.1% rate. Against single-high, Lamar averages 9.25 YPRR, has a 66.5% completion rate and has a QB rating of 116.4. That compares to 8.39 YPRR, a 69.9% completion rate and a QB rating of 125.8 against two-high. In terms of scrambling splits, Lamar averages -19.44% fewer rushing yards per dropback against single-high compared to two-high. The Steelers have historically been successfully limiting Lamar’s rushing, as he has rushed for only 45 and 46 yards in his last 2 matchups.

Suggested Pick
“O” 222.5 Pass Yds (-113)
“U” 49.5 Rush Yds (-113)

RB Derrick Henry
Henry is averaging 105.3 rushing yards per game on an elite 5.8 YPC. He’s tied for the lead in rushing TDs at 13. He also has the 5^th highest explosive run rate (7.1%), which is the percentage of runs that go 15+. He’ll face a Steelers defense that allows the 4^th least rushing yards per game (94.2) and the 5^th least yards per carry (3.97). They also allow the 6^th least explosive run rate in the league (3.6%). The Steelers are particularly strong defending man/gap concept runs. They allow the fewest YPC (2.6) and the lowest success rate (35.2%). That is in sharp contrast to zone concept runs, where they allow the 2^nd most YPC (4.98) and the 6^th highest success rate (53.2%). Henry has run zone concept on 53.9% of his attempts, and he’s more effective averaging 6.15 YPC, highest in the league amongst qualifying RBs. That compares to 5.41 YPC in man/gap concepts, ranking 11^th. On the surface, this looks like a tough matchup, but schematically looks much better. Earlier in the season in this matchup, Henry rushed for only 65 yards. The Ravens are 6.5-point favorites. Henry averages 20 attempts in wins, compared to 14.8 in losses. Despite the 6.5-point favorite line, you never know with these 2 teams as divisional rivals.

Suggested Pick
“O” 81.5 Rush Yds (-113)

WR Zay Flowers
Zay averages 65.4 receiving yards per game, 2.26 YPRR and 25% TPRR. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 29.6%. Pittsburgh allows the 11^th most receiving yards to opposing WR. The Steelers play the highest rate of single-high (67.4%) in the NFL and allow 0.49 fantasy points per dropback when in it, which is middle of the pack. The Steelers played this at an even higher rate when these 2 teams played earlier this season, at a 77.1% rate. Against single high, Zay averages 2.85 YPRR and 27% TPRR. That compares to 1.53 YPRR and 22% TPRR against two-high. That’s an +86.3% boost in YPRR against single-high. Zay has lined up out wide on 63.2% of his routes, and in the slot at a 36.5% frequency. The Steelers allow the 9^th highest target share (42.7%) and the 4^th most receiving yards per game (119.8) to wide alignment. The Steelers are middle of the pack in target share allowed to the slot (32.1%) but allow the 7^th fewest receiving yards (70.3) to that alignment. Zay moves around a lot and Joey Porter, the Steelers top CB, primarily lines up out wide, so I wouldn’t expect shadow coverage.

Suggested Pick
“O” 60.5 Rec Yds (-113)
70+ Rec Yds (+134)
80+ Rec Yds (+200)
90+ Rec Yds (+280)

WR Rashod Bateman
Bateman averages 46.7 receiving yards per game, 1.87 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. He’s operated more as the down field threat, as he has the highest aDOT amongst the starters at 15.9. Pittsburgh allows the 11^th most receiving yards to opposing WR. The Steelers play the highest rate of single-high (67.4%) in the NFL and allow 0.49 fantasy points per dropback when in it, which is middle of the pack. The Steelers played this at an even higher rate when these 2 teams played earlier this season, at a 77.1% rate. Against single-high, Bateman averages 1.46 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. That compares to 2.39 YPRR and 18% TPRR against two-high. Bearish matchup for Bateman in terms of scheme. Bateman primarily lines up out wide, at a 92% rate. The Steelers allow the 9^th highest target share (42.7%) and the 4^th most receiving yards per game (119.8) to wide alignment. The Steelers top CB, Joey Porter, primarily lines up out wide, so I’d expect some coverage from him, especially when Zay is lined up in the slot. Bateman has operated as a deep ball threat, so it only takes one, but I lean under based on matchup.

Suggested Pick
“U” 35.5 Rec Yds (-113)
“U” 2.5 Rec (+112)

TE Mark Andrews
Andrews averages 36.7 receiving yards per game, 1.86 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. The Steelers are middle of the pack in terms of receiving yards allowed to TE (50.07 YPG). The Steelers play the highest rate of single-high (67.4%) in the NFL and allow 0.49 fantasy points per dropback when in it, which is middle of the pack. The Steelers played this at an even higher rate when these 2 teams played earlier this season, at a 77.1% rate. Andrews averages 1.74 YPRR and 18% TPRR against single-high. That compares to 2.02 YPRR and 21% TPRR against two-high. Negative splits, but not to the extent of Bateman. Andrews primarily lines up in the slot, at a 64.9% rate. The Steelers are middle of the pack in target share allowed to the slot (32.1%) but allow the 7^th fewest receiving yards (70.3) to that alignment.

Suggested Pick
“O” 33.5 Rec Yds (-113)
Anytime TD (+225)

The Steelers have won this matchup in 4 straight, and the total has gone under in 5 of the last 5 games. TJ Watt was banged up last week and it looked like his status may be in doubt for this matchup but looks like he’s good to go. That’s huge for the Steelers, and I expect him and the Steelers to make some timely defensively plays to keep this one close. However, I think the Ravens finally break the losing streak against their divisional rival, albeit in a low scoring, close affair. The Ravens are the better team on paper and matchup wise, have the advantage. But I price this closer to a field goal favorite for the Ravens.

Best Bet (Under 45.5 -110)
Lean (Steelers +7.5 -150)
Ravens 23 Steelers 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (BAL) Mark Andrews (+225)
Andrews has come alive as of late, scoring a TD in 7 of his last 9 games. He hasn’t scored a TD vs the Steelers in 6 straight games, but I like him to break through here. He is less of the focal point of the defensive game plan at this point in his career, which could leave him open at a higher frequency. Ride the hot hand!

Longshot: (PIT) Mike Williams (+480)
Mike Williams has scored 1 TD against the Commanders this season, but with Pickens out and his snap share increasing each week, I love this as a longshot. The Ravens have allowed the 4^th most receiving TDs to WR on the season, and I expect Russell to give Mike an opportunity to catch a jump ball in the endzone. He’s the closest guy to Pickens the Steelers have, I like the matchup.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (BAL) Derrick Henry (+390)
Derrick Henry has been a monster with his new team and has scored a 1^st quarter TD in 36% of his games this season. He’s also scored a 1^st half TD in 50% of games this season, including 1 in this matchup earlier in the season. Recently, touchdowns have been hard to come by in this matchup, so why not take the guy with the best odds to score for 1^st TD scorer.

Longshot: (PIT) Pat Freiermuth (+1600)
Love this for a longshot as Freiermuth has found the endzone in 3 straight weeks. If the Steelers score first, there’s a great chance Pat is at the end of it as the Ravens have the best rush defense in the league. Freiermuth is easily the top endzone target for the Steelers without Pickens. I’ll take these odds any day of the week.

Parlay #1: (+252)

Jaylen Warren O 20.5 Rec Yds

Lamar Jackson 200+ Pass Yds

Zay Flowers 50+ Rec Yds

Parlay #2: (+679)

Zay Flowers 70+ Rec Yds

Lamar Jackson U 49.5 Rush Yds

Jaylen Warren 25+ Rec Yds

Parlay #3: Longshot (+3112)

Mike Williams Anytime TD

Calvin Austin 50+ Rec Yds

Mark Andrews Anytime TD

QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts has been good this season, but due to Saquon's eruption over the past few weeks, Hurts has seen his production dip. Now, it did go up last week once they heard the outside noise. Hurts balled out last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, going 25/32 for 290 passing yards and two passing TDs. This week, Hurts and the Eagles are taking on the Commanders. In a meeting earlier this season, Hurts went 18/28 for 221 passing yards and zero passing TDs; however, he added one on the ground. After a terrible start to the season, the Commanders have turned their pass defence completely around, allowing the single fewest completions (18) and pass attempts (28.4) and the fourth-fewest passing yards (203.6). Washington runs the ninth most man coverage (32%) in the league. Hurts has performed well against the coverage, having the fourth most passing yards (1,000), the third highest yards per attempt (9.35) and completion percentage (66.4%) with a 12-1 TD to INT ratio. When the Commanders defence runs man coverage, they are middle of the pack at limiting yards against the coverage, allowing the 14th most passing yards and the 10th yards per attempt. However, they do struggle at stopping completions, allowing the fifth-highest completion percentage (61.9%) and an 11-3 TD to INT ratio. I know the volume has been down for Hurts lately, but his completions line is just too low for this matchup for Hurts. He has 17+ completions in three of his last seven games and has 17+ completions in seven straight against the Commanders.

Suggested Pick:
Jalen Hurts o16.5 Completions (-125)

RB Saquon Barkley
Barkley would be the MVP this season had the award not been a QB award. He has rushed for 100+ rushing yards in seven of his last nine games. In fact, he's only ever dipped under 100 rushing yards in consecutive games once this season, and that was back in Week 4 & 5. While the Commanders' pass defence has massively improved, their run defence has suffered because of it. Washington allows the sixth most rushing yards (110.4) but the sixth fewest receiving yards (25.8) to RBs per game this season. Washington runs more man/gap and are allowing a higher yards per carry (5.54) against the coverage. This is great for Saquon as he averages a higher yards per carry (6.23) against man/gap. When these two teams met earlier in the season, Saquon was relied on heavily, carrying the ball 26 times for 146 rushing yards and two TDs. Saquon should find the same success in this matchup, in what projects to be a close, playoff-style game for both teams.

Suggested Pick:
Saquon Barkley o94.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR AJ Brown
I guess complaining in the media gets you the ball more, as Brown finally had a good game after two disappointing games. Brown finished last week with eight receptions of 10 targets for 110 receiving yards and one TD. In Week 11 against the Commanders, Brown caught five of his eight targets for 63 receiving yards. Which was a bit of a down game for him, considering last season he exploded against the Commanders, finishing with 17 receptions on 21 targets for 305 receiving yards and four TDs in the two games played last season. The Commanders allow the sixth fewest (10.8) receptions and eighth fewest receiving yards (136.4) to WRs this season. Brown lines up on the outside 81% of the time, primarily on the right and will draw the Mike Sainristil matchup. Sainristil has been heavily targeted over the last three games, recording at least 7+ targets in all three matches, allowing just four receptions and 50 receiving yards per game. With the Commanders running the ninth most man coverage, AJ Brown has the single highest PFF grade of all WRs in the NFL, catching 24 of his 32 targets for 415 receiving yards and three TDs. I feel like last week is more of what's to come for Brown, especially against a team he historically crushes.

Suggested Pick:
AJ Brown o74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR DeVonta Smith
It was a tough stretch for Smith but he bounced back like Brown last week. He had under seven receptions in four consecutive games before exploding by catching all 11 of his targets last week for 109 receiving yards and one TD. One of those games he struggled was against the Commanders, where he caught four of his six targets for 29 receiving yards. Smith isn't a man killer; he plays much better against zone. Although, he has caught 16 of 22 of his targets but for just 155 receiving yards. He also sees his yards per reception (9.7), yards per route run (1.58), and aDoT (7.6). Smith lines up in the slot 52% of the time and will likely draw the Noah Igbinoghene matchup. Igbinoghene surprisingly gets targeted at a considerably low rate for a slot CB. He has been targeted over four times in one of the previous four games, averaging just 3.0 receptions and 25.3 receiving yards –– this includes the game against the Eagles where he allowed four receptions on four targets for 36 receiving yards. If we're projecting Brown to have the better of the two games, it doesn't sound like Smith would be involved much in this match. Smith has failed to reach five receptions in four of his last five games.

Suggested Pick:
DeVonta Smith u4.5 Receptions (+105)

TE Grant Calcaterra
Calcaterra really hasn't taken advantage of Goedert being out of the lineup since his most recent injury. Calcaterra has recorded just four receptions on four targets but for 38 receiving yards. The Commanders are pretty good against opposing TEs, allowing the sixth fewest receptions (4.2) and the seventh fewest receiving yards (42.9) per game to the position. Calcaterra lines up inline 43.7% on the season. The Commanders are great against inline receivers, allowing the second lowest catch rate (45.5%) and the seventh fewest yards per route run. However, Calcaterra has logged 92.3% and 94.9% route participation over the past two weeks without Goedert. Given this, he would find success in the end zone, as he has a touchdown grab two games ago and the Commanders allow the sixth most TDs per game to the position.
Suggested Pick:
Grant Calcaterra TD (+550)

QB Jayden Daniels
This is crunch time for Daniels to see if he can clutch up and take his team to the playoffs. Earlier this season against the Eagles, Daniels went 22/32 for 191 passing yards, one passing TD and one interception. However, he came into this game nursing a rip injury, and was still able to produce relatively well and put up 18 points on this Eagles defence. The Eagles allow the ninth-fewest completions, the 13th-most pass attempts (31.8) and the second-fewest passing yards (194.4). Philadelphia are a relatively even team in terms of coverages ran, running the 16th most man coverage and the 18th most zone coverage. So, we can't really get an edge there, so let's look into which coverage the Eagles struggle most against. Against man, the Eagles allow the 14th-highest completion percentage (65.5%) but the eighth-fewest passing yards per game (45), the second-fewest yards per attempt (5.2) and the lowest aDoT (7.3). Against zone, the Eagles allow the third-lowest completion percentage (64.8%), the eighth-fewest passing yards per game (142.5) the third-fewest yards per attempt (6.7), but the seventh-highest aDoT (8.1). By these numbers, there's no clear edge for Daniels. However, seeing that the Eagles are allowing a lot of attempts but not a lot of completions matches the high aDoT against zone coverage. Daniels might not be able to get the completions, but he'll need to have volume to beat this Eagles team. He has had 30+ pass attempts in five straight games, including one game against the Eagles.

Suggested Pick:
Jayden Daniels 30+ Pass Attempts (-110)

RB Brian Robinson Jr.
Brian Robinson was a scoring machine to start the season, finding the end zone in five of his first six games. However, that has slowed down as he has just two over his previous five games. When these two teams met, Robinson was just returning from an injury and carried the ball 16 times for 63 yards and found the end zone. The Eagles defence is all around good at limiting opposing RBs. They allow the seventh fewest rushing yards (80.9) and the 11th fewest receiving yards (30.1). Philadelphia runs more zone concept, which isn't great for Robinson, who has a much better average (4.8) against man/gap than zone. Austin Ekeler remains out with a head injury. Robinson's great on the ground without Ekeler, averaging 89.7 rushing yards per game. Granted those were against easier rush defences. However, considering it's a tough matchup for Robinson on the ground, he might need to be used more in the passing game. With Ekeler out of the lineup, he saw two of his top four games in terms of routes run, where he recorded three receptions on three targets in each of them. While the Eagles are good at limiting receiving yards, they do rank in the top half of receptions allowed to RBs, averaging 4.4 per game.

Suggested Pick:
Brian Robinson Jr. o1.5 Reception (-130)

WR Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin is coming off back-to-back games where he had 70+ receiving yards and two TDs, and is on the precipice of his fifth consecutive 1,000 receiving yard season with 969 on the season. McLaurin had a tough game when these two teams met in Week 11 when he had just one reception on two targets for 10 receiving yards. Despite ranking in the top half of targets to WRs, the Eagles allow the seventh fewest (10.9) and the fewest receiving yards (125.4). Having the Eagles running league average in both man and zone coverage is kind of fine for McLaurin. He performs well against both coverages with very similar PFF grades and leads the Commanders in both regards. He's got more receiving TDs (5) against man but has a higher catch rate (75.9) and yards per reception (16.8) by a considerable margin. McLaurin lines up on the left side of the field 72% of the time and will likely draw the Quinyon Mitchell matchup. Mitchell has been a shutdown corner for the majority of the season. It was a tough first month of the season for Mitchell, but has since really limited opposing WRs, allowing just 19 receptions on 33 targets for just 152 receiving yards in the following 10 games. That's an average of 15.2 receiving yards per game. Wild. I just can't imagine McLaurin, who did not register a single catch against Mitchell in that game, is going to have success this game.

Suggested Pick:
Terry McLaurin u5.5 Receptions (-155)

WR Olamide Zaccheaus
It was hard to find a second WR target for this game. Zaccheaus has really not been much of a factor this season, with just 30 receptions on 40 targets for 300 receiving yards and zero TDs. But he has the third highest route participation outside of Luke McCaffrey, who doesn't have any lines for this game. He had the same stat line against the Eagles with one reception on two targets for 10 receiving yards. Zaccheaus performs much better against zone coverage this season, catching 20 of 26 targets for 227 receiving yards. Zaccheaus lines up 55.6% of the slot and will likely draw the Cooper DeJean matchup. DeJean has been heavily targeted over the past five games, allowing receptions on 27 of his 35 targets against for 215 receiving yards. We aren't sure how much he'll be involved in this match, as he wasn't last match.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

TE Zach Ertz

How many games does it take for a player to play for it to not be a revenge game? It's been years since Ertz has played for the Eagles, but feel he still gets up for these games to get back at the team who originally let him go. Ertz holds a questionable tag coming into the game with a concussion but did log a limited session on Thursday. Ertz was involved in Week 11 when these two teams played, logging six receptions on seven targets for 47 receiving yards and found the end zone. The Eagles allow the seventh fewest receptions (4.7) and the third fewest receiving yards (38.3) to TEs this season. Ertz mostly lines up in the slot, which makes sense as to why DeJean allowed so many receptions in the game against the Commanders earlier in the year. We think that, if he plays, he'll see similar volume as he did in their previous meeting.

Suggested pick:

Zach Ertz over receptions if it's 3.5 or lower.

This is a much bigger game for both these teams this week. The Eagles need the win to stay competitive for the one-seed in the NFC, and with a loss, the Commanders might actually fall out of a playoff spot if the Seattle Seahawks win. However, I'm going to be siding with the better defence in this match, despite being on the road. But it's going to be sweaty.

Best Bet: Eagles -6.5 -120
Lean : Under 45.5 -115
Eagles 24 - Commanders 20

Anytime TD 

Brian Robinson TD (+105)
We touched on Robinson finding the end zone a bunch to start the season. We think he can do it again despite a difficult matchup against the Eagles in this game. He has a TD in three of the previous four meetings against the Eagles.

AJ Brown TD (+125)
Like Robinson, Brown has fantastic history at finding the end zone against the Commanders with two in each game last season. After scoring the first three games, he has just two over the following eight games, but found the end zone last week and should get on a role to build momentum heading toward playoff time.

First TD

Jalen Hurts First TD (+450)
The Eagles have scored the first TD in 10 of their 14 games this season. Hurts is second on the team with three, trailing only Saquon with four, and ahead of Brown with two and Smith with one. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Eagles get down to the one early and do their patented tush push to give Hurts the first TD of the game.

Jayden Daniels First TD (+900)
We're going double QB here! The Commanders have scored the first TD in six of their 14 games this season, with 50% of those first TDs having been scored by Daniels. He has been finding the end zone lately, scoring in two of his last three games.

Parlay 1: +225 odds on bet365

Philadelphia Eagles ML

AJ Brown 70+ Receiving Yards

Saquon Barkley 80+ Rushing Yards

Parlay 2: +135 odds on bet365

Jayden Daniels 25+ Pass Attempts

Brian Robinson 1+ Reception

Terry McLaurin u5.5 Receptions

Parlay 3: +2000 odds on bet365

Brian Robinson Jr. 3+ Receptions

Saquon Barkley 100+ Rushing Yards

AJ Brown 100+ Receiving Yards

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Well, this isn't going to be pretty. I'm a big fan of Jameis Winston because of his baller mentality and he can actually move the ball down the field. I don't really believe the benching is warranted unless the Browns are in full tank mode. This will be DTR's first start of the season. However, he has appeared in three games this season, completing only 15 of his 34 pass attempts for 100 passing yards, 2.9 yards per attempt with a 0-3 TD to INT ratio. DTR did get into some game action last season but looked uninspiring, with just a 53.6% completion percentage and 440 passing yards in 123 dropbacks. Now, let's be fair to DTR, he might be able to do well in this matchup. The Bengals allow the eighth most pass attempts (34) and the sixth most passing yards (249.4) per game this season. They also struggle to keep the ball out of the end zone, averaging the fifth most passing TDs allowed per game. However, we can't be betting on a guy to match his career total. Where I don't mind looking into is what he might be able to do on the ground. Funny enough, the game DTR saw action in was against the Bengals in Week 7. He did struggle through the air, but added 44 rushing yards to his stat line. And last week, when he came in relief, he managed to run for 16 rushing yards despite playing just 11 passing snaps.

Suggested Pick:
DTR o25.5 Rushing Yards

RB Jerome Ford
Nick Chubb has been through enough; why did he have to go and break his foot after a miraculous comeback from a gruesome knee injury he sustained last season. But that just opens the door for Ford, who had a successful season last year in Chubb's absence and even did that last game where he ripped off a 62 yard TD against the Kansas City Chiefs, who had the best run defence in terms of yardage coming into last week. The Bengals are middle of the back against RBs, allowing the 18th most rushing yards (91.4) and receiving yards (32) per game. Ford has been successful in the passing game this season, but that was the way for the Browns to get him touches when Chubb was back. The Bengals run significantly more zone concept than man/gap, which isn't great for Ford as he averages just a 3.4 yards per carry in zone, but a massive 7.4 against man/gap. However, if he can break away, he should be able to burn the Bengals with a long rush. As a starter this season, Ford has logged a 15+ yard rush in three of six games.

Suggested Pick:
Jerome Ford o14.5 Longest Rush (-115)

WR Jerry Jeudy
Now, Jerry Jeudy is going to be the one who takes a significant hit because of the QB change. With Winston, Jeudy averages seven receptions, 9.9 targets and 112.3 receiving yards in those seven games. However, with Watson/DTR under centre, Jeudy averages just three receptions, six targets and 38 receiving yards. It's a massive difference. In the game against the Bengals earlier this season, Jeudy caught just one of his six targets for 18 receiving yards. Cincinnati allows the 14th-fewest receptions (11.4) but the 14th-most receiving yards (150.1). With the Bengals running league average in both man and zone coverage, the only edge Jeudy has is against man coverage. He has the highest PFF grade of any Browns receiver against man, catching 20 of 29 targets for 303 receiving yards and two TDs. Jeudy lines up all over the field; 30% on the left, 34% in the slot and 36% on the right and will mostly draw the Josh Newton matchup. Newton has only become a primary starter over the last three games. During those games, he has been targeted 19 times, allowing 11 receptions for 189 receiving yards and one TD. It's very unfortunate that we don't get Winston in this matchup, as Jeudy would be a hammer spot to continue his run. However, that's not the case and I don't feel comfortable backing anything in this Cleveland passing game with the uncertainty of DTR.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

WR Elijah Moore
Again, Moore would be in a prime position to see a lot of targets again in this matchup, but DTR isn't an enticing QB to back. Under Winston, Moore averaged 4.7 receptions, 8.3 targets and 49.1 receiving yards, but had explosive games with 65+ yards in three of those seven games. With Watson/DTR under centre, Moore averaged just 3.1 receptions on 4.1 targets for just 19.4 receiving yards. However, the game he played this season against the Bengals, Moore had six catches for seven targets and 41 receiving yards. That was with Watson and DTR throwing 41 times. However, the production with DTR was low, as he only threw two completions to Moore. Moore lines up in the slot 52% of the time, and will likely draw the Mike Hilton matchup. Hilton hasn't been targeted much lately, averaging just 3.8 targets for 3.3 receptions per game. However, against the Browns earlier this season, he allowed all seven of his targets to go for receptions, for 58 receiving yards. Now, I know we can't really trust this Browns passing attack, but one thing we know to be true is that newer QBs tend to rely on the short area of the field more to move the ball, which is great for RBs and slot receivers. Of the big three WRs on the Browns, Moore has the lowest aDoT at just 9.6. Moore should be a relied-upon weapon for the young QB.

Suggested Pick:
Elijah Moore o3.5 Receptions (-120)

TE David Njoku
David Njoku missed last week due to an injury and holds a questionable tag for this game. However, he did return to practice on Friday after missing Wednesday and Thursday. If Njoku plays, he's got a primed matchup against this Bengals defence, who allows the most receptions (6.5) and the third most receiving yards (67.1) to TEs per game. In their previous match earlier in the season, Njoku had exploded with 10 receptions on 13 targets for 76 receiving yards and one TD. Njoku lines up inline 52.3% of the time. Despite how poor the Bengals are against the position, they allow the 19th highest catch rate (66.7%) but the 12th-most yards per route run (1.79). If Njoku plays, he should be heavily used and could break one down field, as they allow the seventh highest aDoT to inline receivers.

Suggested Pick:
Consider David Njoku receiving yards and receptions if he plays

QB Joe Burrow
Oh joy, an actual QB we can have some confidence in. What even is there to say about Burrow at this point? He leads the league in passing yards and passing TDs, and now gets a QB-less Browns team. When these two teams met in Week 7, Burrow was just fine. He went 15/25 for 181 passing yards and two passing TDs and zero interceptions. Nothing like the last few weeks where he's going for 300+ passing yards, but I would have liked to see him perform a little better, considering it was a one-score game. The Browns defence allow the second-fewest (18.1) completions, sixth-fewest (30) pass attempts and the 10th-fewest passing yards. Cleveland runs the fourth most man coverage (38%) in the league. Burrow is much better against zone coverage than man. His completion percentage dips from 75% to 55% and his yards per attempt goes down from 8.5 to 6.2 when playing zone and man. Which might be a big reason why he has historically struggled against the Browns. However, Burrow and the Bengals have something to fight for, they're technically still alive in the playoff race, and Burrow should continue to fire the ball in this matchup. Burrow has thrown for 3+ passing TDs in six straight games and 2+ passing TDs in three of his last four meetings against the Browns.

Suggested Pick:
Joe Burrow 2+ Passing TDs (parlay piece)

RB Chase Brown
Chase Brown has been great since taking over the Bengals backfield when Zack Moss got injured. Brown has recorded 70+ rushing yards in four of his last six games, 30+ receiving in five of six games, and 100+ all-purpose yards in five of six games. Earlier this season when Brown faced off against the Browns, he finished with 15 rush attempts for 44 rushing yards which at a 2.9 yards per carry is the second worst of season. Cleveland's defence is fairly respectable on the ground, allowing the 11th-fewest rushing yards (86.4) but are fantastic through the air, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards (24.1) to RBs. The Browns run about the same zone concept and man/gap run scheme, and allow about the same, averaging a 4.33 yards per carry in zone and 4.4 against man/gap. Where Brown might have an edge is finding the end zone. The Browns are allowing 0.93 TDs to RBs per game while Brown has scored in three straight games and six of his last seven games.

Suggested Pick:
Chase Brown TD (-175)

WR Ja'Marr Chase
There just isn't a matchup where Chase can be stopped. He has been a target machine, earning double-digit targets in seven straight games, catching 71.5% catch rate over that span. However, the game before that lengthy stretch was against the Browns, where Chase finished with just five receptions on six targets for 55 receiving yards and one TD. Is that a sign of things to come again for this matchup? The Browns allow the second-fewest receptions (10.1) but the ninth most receiving yards (154.2) per game to WRs. A reason Chase might have poor performances against the Browns, is because they're a very man heavy team, running the fourth most man coverage (38%). Chase is much better against zone coverage. He sees his catch rate dip from 78.7% against zone to 66.7% against man, his yards per reception dip from 15.4 against zone to to 10.4 against man, his yards after catch dip from 8.0 against zone to 4.3 against man, and his yards per route run dip from 2.97 against zone to 1.72 against man. That is a massive dip in production. Chase lines up everywhere on the field, 33% on the left, 34% in the slot and 33% on the right, so there is no clear indication of which matchup he will mostly draw. Regardless, it might be a bit of struggle for Chase to garner his usual yards in this matchup. But I'm not crazy enough to bet a Chase under here.
Suggested Pick:
Pass

WR Tee Higgins
Now, this is the guy we're going to want to target in this matchup. Higgins has been playing in the shadows of Chase over the past two games, only accumulating seven receptions on 11 targets but still had a game where he recorded 88 receiving yards and one TD. Against the Bengals earlier this season, Higgins had a decent game four receptions on eight targets for 82 receiving yards and a TD. With the Browns allowing such few receptions but a high number of receiving yards, should indicate they're allowing the deep ball. Which, bodes true as they allow the highest aDoT (10), highest yards per reception (12.5) and the second highest yards after catch per reception (6.45) per game this season to WRs. With the Browns running the fourth most man coverage in the league, Higgins is the receiver to target. He has the highest PFF grade on the team against the coverage, he's caught 15 of 27 targets for 193 receiving yards and three TDs. But what's most impressive, is that he's earned a 29.3% target share againt man, which leads the entire team, and Chase by nearly 5%. He sees his yards after catch improve from 3.4 against zone to 5.3 against man, and his yards per route run jump from 1.98 against zone up to 2.1 against man. Higgins plays mostly on the outside, primarily on the left at 42% and will likely draw the Cameron Mitchell matchup. Mitchell hasn't started a game this season and only played six defensive snaps in their previous match against the Benglas. However, last game, he played a season high 66 snaps, allowing four receptions on six targets for 25 receiving yards against the Chiefs. It should be time for Higgins to have the monster game in this matchup against an inexperienced CB.

Suggested Pick:
Tee Higgins 70+ Receiving Yards (-120)
Tee Higgins 100+ Receiving Yards (+270)

TE Mike Gesicki
Gesicki has really only been a factor in this offence when he was the second option in games without Tee Higgins. Without Higgins, Gesicki had 70+ receiving yards in three of five games, topping out at 100 yards. But with Higgins, he has gone over 40 yards just twice in nine games, averaging 20.6 yards per game. The Browns are middle of the pack against TEs, allowing five receptions and 49.2 receiving yards per game. In the earlier game this season against the Browns, Gesicki caught his only target for two receiving yards. Gesicki actually lines up in the slot 66.2% of the time. Against slot receivers, the Browns are targeted at a top-10 rate on the year, but allow the 20th-highest catch rate at just 60.8%. Although, Gesicki performs better against man coverage, catching 16 of his 24 targets with a team-high 14.7 yards per reception. He might not be able to get a lot of volume, but he should be able to take one long. He has recorded a 13+ longest reception in six of his last seven games.

Suggested Pick:
Mike Geisicki o12.5 Longest Receptions (-115)

I am not very high on DTR, if you couldn't tell. I know this Bengals defence isn't anything to write home about, so the Browns might be able to score some points to keep this game close. But the Bengals still aren't out of this playoff race, and should come out victrious, despite Burrow's career struggles against the Browns.

Best Bet: Under 46.5
Lean: Browns +8.5
Bengals 24 Browns 13

Anytime Touchdown:

Tee Higgins TD (+120)
If we're projecting a big game from Higgins, why can't he find the end zone? He has scored a TD in four of his last five games, and has a TD earlier this year against the Browns, who are allowing 1.14 TDs per game against WRs.

Jerome Ford TD (+160)
Ford gets the full keys to the rushing work for this Browns team. In games without Chubb this season he only has one TD, but he scored last week on his long run. The Bengals are allowing one TD to RBs per game this season, and when/if they're able to get down into the red zone, he should get all the goal line work.

First Touchdown Picks

Tee Higgins First TD (+700)
The Bengals have only scored the first TD in six of 14 games this season: two from Chase, one from Brown, Burrow, Iosivas, Hudson and Burrow. Notice how Higgins hasn't caught the first TD yet this year. If we're heavy on Higgins in this game, let's bet on it happening early for him.

Jerome Ford First TD (+900)
The Browns have only scored the first TD in five of 14 games this season: two from Jeudy and Chubb and one from Whiteheart. Notice how Chubb scored the first TD twice. Well, with no Chubb, all that work should go to Ford.

Parlay 1: +190 odds on bet365

Dorian Thompson-Robinson 20+ Rushing Yards

Jerome Ford 50+ Rushing Yards

Elijah Moore 3+ Receptions

Parlay 2: +140 odds on bet365

Cincinnati Bengals -6.5

Joe Burrow 2+ Passing TDs

Tee Higgins 60+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: +550 odds on bet365

Tee Higgins TD

Tee Higgins 6+ Receptions

Tee Higgins 100+ Receiving Yards

QB Jared Goff
Goff is averaging 268.5 passing yards per game, 8.54 YPA and has thrown 30 TDs. He has a completion percentage of 71.4% and a QB rating of 110.4. He’ll face a Bears defense that is middle of the pack in passing yards allowed, ranking 16^th (232.7 YPG). They have also allowed the 3^rd fewest passing TDs (14). The Bears play zone coverage 75.5% of the time, 5^th highest rate in the league. They also play single-high 58.9% of the time, 6^th highest rate. That single-high rate increased even further when these 2 teams played earlier this season, with the Bears playing it at a 72.2% rate. Against zone coverage, Goff averages 8.59 YPA, a 73.6% completion rate and a QB rating of 97.9. Against single-high, Goff averages 9.2 YPA, a 72.3% completion percentage and a QB rating of 110. When these 2 divisional rivals faced off a few weeks back, Goff threw for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 23-20 victory. That game was at home, this one is on the road. Goff has negative splits on the road, averaging 241.3 passing yards and 1.7 passing TDs, compared to 288.9 passing yards and 2.5 passing TDs at home. Despite the Bears being tough against passing TDs, they have allowed 3 of the last 4 QBs throw for 2+. I’m inclined to lean Goff over passing TDs and under passing yards.

Suggested Pick
“U” 255.5 Pass Yds (-115)
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (-145)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs has been incredible this season, averaging 74.8 rushing yards per game on 5.63 YPC. He’s also averaging 28.2 receiving yards per game. He has 14 total TDs. Keep in mind, he has been splitting carries with Montgomery, with a 53.8% snap share. With Montgomery ruled out this week, he may go nuclear. He’ll face a Bears defense that allows the 7^th most rushing yards per game (133.3) on the 7^th most YPC (4.72). The Bears allow 32 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, which is around middle of the pack. They also allow the most rushing TDs to opposing RBs. His TD line is currently set at -320 for good reason. One of the dynamics that has made Gibbs so elite is his explosive run ability. He leads the NFL in percentage of rush attempts going for 15+ yards (10.8%) by over 250 basis points. He has about a 60-40 split between zone vs man/gap concepts in terms of volume. He averages 6.08 YPC in zone concepts compared to 4.99 YPC in man/gap concepts. The Bears don’t have any glaring splits between zone and man/gap concepts. Gibbs will see increased volume, but his lines already reflect that. The only category I don’t think the books adjusted quite enough for is his rushing yards set at 91.5.

Suggested Pick
“O” 91.5 Rush Yds (-113)
100+ Rush Yds (+122)

WR Amon-Ra St Brown
Amon-Ra averages 75.4 receiving yards per game, 2.58 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He has the highest 1^st-read rate on the team at 30.8%. The Bears allow the 12^th fewest receiving yards per game and the 7^th fewest receiving TDs to opposing WRs. The Bears play zone coverage 75.5% of the time, 5^th highest rate in the league. They also play single-high 58.9% of the time, 6^th highest rate. That single-high rate increased even further when these 2 teams played earlier this season, with the Bears playing it at a 72.2% rate. Against zone coverage, St Brown sees a slight production increase averaging 2.69 YPRR on a similar 28% TPRR. Against single-high, Amon-Ra sees immaterial negative splits, averaging 2.56 YPRR and 26% TPRR. Looking at pre-snap alignment, St Brown splits his time between out wide and the slot, at 47.1% and 52.2% rates respectively. The Bears allow the 13^th highest target share but the 13^th fewest receiving yards to wide alignment. They allow the 13^th lowest target share and 11^th fewest receiving yards per game to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“O” 69.5 Rec Yds (-115)

WR Jameson Williams
Jamo has finally broken out this season, averaging 62.3 receiving yards per game, 2.10 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. He’s 2^nd on the team in 1^st read rate at a healthy 22.2%. The Bears allow the 12^th fewest receiving yards per game and the 7^th fewest receiving TDs to opposing WRs. The Bears play zone coverage 75.5% of the time, 5^th highest rate in the league. They also play single-high 58.9% of the time, 6^th highest rate. That single-high rate increased even further when these 2 teams played earlier this season, with the Bears playing it at a 72.2% rate. Against zone coverage, Jamo sees a slight production decrease averaging 1.94 YPRR on a slightly higher 20% TPRR. Against single-high, Jamo sees immaterial negative splits in production, averaging 2.08 YPRR on an identical 19% TPRR. Looking at pre-snap alignment, Jamo lines up out wide on 64.8% of his routes and in the slot on 35.2%. The Bears allow the 13^th highest target share but the 13^th fewest receiving yards to wide alignment. They allow the 13^th lowest target share and 11^th fewest receiving yards per game to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“U” 47.5 Rec Yds (-115)

WR Tim Patrick
Tim Patrick has seen increased opportunities with the injury to Kaliff Raymond. He’s averaging 40.3 receiving yards per game in the 3 games without him. On the season, he averages 1.50 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. The Bears allow the 12^th fewest receiving yards per game and the 7^th fewest receiving TDs to opposing WRs. The Bears play zone coverage 75.5% of the time, 5^th highest rate in the league. They also play single-high 58.9% of the time, 6^th highest rate. That single-high rate increased even further when these 2 teams played earlier this season, with the Bears playing it at a 72.2% rate. Against zone coverage, Patrick’s production increases to 1.77 YPRR on a slightly higher 18% TPRR. Against single-high, Patrick sees a slight bump in production, averaging 1.65 YPRR on a similar 16% TPRR. Looking at pre-snap alignment, Tim Patrick lines up out wide on 79.4% of his routes. The Bears allow the 13^th highest target share but the 13^th fewest receiving yards per game to wide alignment.

Suggested Pick
“O” 32.5 Rec Yds (-105)

TE Sam LaPorta
Sam LaPorta has taken a step back this season with the emergence of Jameson Williams as the 2^nd option. He’s averaging 42.8 receiving yards per game, 1.72 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. He’s 3^rd on the team in 1^st read rate at 14.7%. The Bears allow the 5^th most receiving yards but are middle of the pack in TDs allowed to TEs. The Bears play zone coverage 75.5% of the time, 5^th highest rate in the league. They also play single-high 58.9% of the time, 6^th highest rate. That single-high rate increased even further when these 2 teams played earlier this season, with the Bears playing it at a 72.2% rate. Against zone coverage, LaPorta sees slight negative splits, averaging 1.57 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Against single-high, LaPorta sees a bump in production, averaging 2.05 YPRR on a similar 19% TPRR. Looking at pre-snap alignment, LaPorta lines up inline on 50.2% of his routes and in the slot on 28.5%. The Bears allow the highest target share and the most receiving yards per game to inline. They allow the 13^th lowest target share and 11^th fewest receiving yards per game to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“O” 3.5 Rec (-168)
“O” 4.5 Rec (+120)

QB Caleb Williams
Caleb averages 209.8 passing yards per game, 6.32 YPA and has thrown 17 TDs. He has a completion rate of 61.9% and a QB rating of 87.7. He’ll face a Lions defense that forces the 4^th highest pass rate over expected. They also allow the 6^th most passing yards, but the fewest passing TDs on the season. Caleb has scrambled a decent amount and averages 29.1 rushing yards per game. This could be a matchup to target as the Lions allow the 4^th most rushing yards to opposing QB. The Lions play the highest rate of man coverage in the league (45%) and play a 56.4% rate of single-high (10^th highest). When these 2 teams played week 13, the Lions played man at a 56.3% rate and single-high 62.5%. Against man coverage, Caleb averages 5.17 YPA, 47.5% completion rate and has a QB rating of 76.4, all negative splits. He did scramble on 15 of his 163 dropbacks against man (9.2%), much higher than his 6.67% scramble rate against zone. Against single-high, Caleb averages 6.57 YPA, a completion rate of 62.4% and a QB rating of 81.4. Out of his 324 dropbacks, he scrambled 25 times (7.71%), which is higher than his 6.67% scramble rate against two-high.

Suggested Pick
“U” 1.5 Pass TDs (-178)
“U” 214.5 Pass Yds (-113)
“O” 27.5 Rush Yds (-113)

RB D’Andre Swift
Swift averages 58.6 rushing yards per game, 3.87 YPC and has rushed for 5 TDs. He’s also averaging 23.2 receiving yards per game. The Lions allow the 6^th fewest rushing yards per game, but that’s mostly because their opponents are typically playing from behind. They allow 4.5 YPC, which is closer to middle of the pack. The Lions struggle more against man/gap concepts, where they allow the 6^th most YPC (5.08). That compares to only 3.48 YPC against zone concepts, 3^rd lowest allowed in the NFL. Looking at Swift’s tendencies, he runs man/gap concept 53.3% of the time and zone concept 45.8% of the time. He has had better success in man/gap concepts, averaging 4.26 YPC and a 48.7% success rate. That compares to 3.48 YPC and only a 36.1% success rate in zone concepts. Looking at the receiving game, the Lions are middle of the pack allowing 32.21 receiving yards per game to RB. Swift had 35 receiving yards catching 2 of 3 targets against the Lions in their earlier matchup this season. He’s hit his 12.5 receiving line in 64% of games this season.

Suggested Pick
“O” 12.5 Rec Yds (-115)
25+ Rec Yds (+235)

WR Rome Odunze
Odunze averages 44.6 receiving yards per game, 1.37 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read target rate of 21.3%, 3^rd on the team. He has been used more as the deep threat, as he has the highest average depth of target of their main weapons at 14.3. He’ll face a Lions defense allowing the 3^rd most receiving yards and the 2^nd most receptions to opposing WRs. The Lions play the highest rate of man coverage in the league (45%) and play a 56.4% rate of single-high (10^th highest). When these 2 teams played week 13, the Lions played man at a 56.3% rate and single-high 62.5%. In the past 5 weeks since the firing of their offensive coordinator, Odunze averages 1.02 YPRR and has been targeted on only 15% of his routes against man coverage. In the last 5 weeks against single-high, Odunze averages 1.13 YPRR on 17% TPRR, slightly negative splits. In terms of pre-snap alignment, Odunze has lined up out wide on 61% of his routes and in the slot on 39% in the past 5 weeks. The Lions have the 8^th highest target share to wide alignment and the 2^nd highest target share to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“U” 3.5 Rec (-130)

WR DJ Moore
On the season, DJ averages 54.1 receiving yards per game, 1.44 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 29.7%. Since the firing of the Bears offensive coordinator, Moore has been more effective. In a 5-game sample size, he’s averaging 72 receiving yards per game, 1.80 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. He has a 1^st-read rate of 32%. He’s been used more as the underneath guy, with the lowest aDOT of the 3 WRs (8.0). He’ll face a Lions defense allowing the 3^rd most receiving yards and the 2^nd most receptions to opposing WRs. The Lions play the highest rate of man coverage in the league (45%) and play a 56.4% rate of single-high (10^th highest). When these 2 teams played week 13, the Lions played man at a 56.3% rate and single-high 62.5%. In the past 5 weeks against man coverage, DJ leads the team in production averaging 1.55 YPRR on 24% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 34.5%. Against single-high in the past 5 weeks, Moore sees positive splits averaging 2.32 YPRR on a team leading 27% TPRR. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 37.9%. In terms of pre-snap alignment, in the past 5 weeks DJ has lined up out wide on 69.5% of his routes and in the slot on 30%. The Lions have the 8^th highest target share to wide alignment and the 2^nd highest target share to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“O” 5.5 Rec (+102)
7+ Rec (+185)
8+ Rec (+380)

WR Keenan Allen
Keenan averages 46.1 receiving yards per game, 1.40 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 29.9%, slightly ahead of DJ Moore. He’s been used as the intermediate guy, with an aDOT of 10.4, between DJ and Odunze. He’ll face a Lions defense allowing the 3^rd most receiving yards and the 2^nd most receptions to opposing WRs. The Lions play the highest rate of man coverage in the league (45%) and play a 56.4% rate of single-high (10^th highest). When these 2 teams played week 13, the Lions played man at a 56.3% rate and single-high 62.5%. Since the firing of the Bears offensive coordinator, Keenan has been inconsistent against man, averaging only 0.80 YPRR despite 24% TPRR and a team leading 1^st-read rate of 37.9%. In the past 5 weeks against single-high, Keen averages 1.45 YPRR on 22% TPRR, insignificant splits. In terms of pre-snap alignment, in the past 5 weeks Keenan has lined up in the slot on 51.9% of his routes and out wide on 48.1%. The Lions have the 8^th highest target share to wide alignment and the 2^nd highest target share to the slot.

Suggested Pick
“O” 53.5 Rec Yds (-110)

TE Cole Kmet
Kmet is averaging 33 receiving yards per game, 1.29 YPRR and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. The Lions play the highest rate of man coverage in the league (45%) and play a 56.4% rate of single-high (10^th highest). When these 2 teams played week 13, the Lions played man at a 56.3% rate and single-high 62.5%. Since the firing of his offensive coordinator, Kmet only has 5 receiving yards against man coverage. In the last 5 weeks against single-high, Kmet averages 1.14 YPRR on 11% TPRR, negative splits. In terms of pre-snap alignment, in the last 5 weeks Kmet has lined up in the slot on 74% of his routes and inline 17.1%. The Lions have the 2^nd highest target share allowed to the slot and the 7^th lowest to inline.

Suggested Pick
“U” 2.5 Rec (-154)

These 2 teams played earlier this season, and the Bears played them tough, losing by 3 with a final score of 23 to 20. Now the Bears are at home. The Lions are coming off a tough shootout, losing 48 to 42 to the Bills. The Bears on the other hand lost 12 to 30 to the Vikings. The Bears have not looked good, and I think the Lions will be fired up to get one back after a tough defeat. I’ll take the Lions to take care of business early in this one and bleed out the clock with the running game.

Best Bet (Lions -6.5)
Lean (Under 47.5)
Lions 28 Bears 14

Anytime TD Picks

Best Pick: (DET) Amon-Ra St Brown +115
Amon-Ra has scored a TD in 5 of 6 away games, and with David Montgomery out, I expect the Lions to be a little more pass heavy on the margin. He had an insane 18 targets last week and scored 1 TD. I expect him to find the end zone again on the road this week against a divisional rival.

Longshot: (DET) Tim Patrick +350
Tim Patrick has scored 3 TDs in the last 2 games. He’s been targeted in the redzone 7 times in the past 5 weeks. I like him to continue that stretch this week with positive splits against zone coverage and single-high.

First Touchdown Picks

Best Pick: (DET) Amon-Ra St Brown +600
Same analysis as anytime TD. Gibbs is the obvious choice, but his lines are way too juiced. I love the value here after the insane 18 targets last week. He should get looks early and often.

Longshot: (DET) Tim Patrick +1700
He had a 1^st half TD last week so why not continue that momentum into this week. I like the splits he has against single-high and zone and being the 4^th option on the Lions, he will not be the focus of the game plan for the Bears.

Parlay #1: (+442)

DJ Moore O 5.5 Rec

Sam LaPorta 4+ Rec

Caleb Williams O 27.5 Rush Yds

Parlay #2: (+1000)

DJ Moore 7+ Rec

Sam LaPorta 5+ Rec

Amon-Ra St Brown Anytime TD

Parlay #3: Longshot (+3009)

Tim Patrick Anytime TD

Sam LaPorta 5+ Rec

DJ Moore 8+ Rec

QB Sam Darnold
Darnold averages 252.1 passing yards per game, 8.29 YPA and has thrown 29 TDs. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that allows the 18^th most passing yards (230.6 YPG) and the 14^th most passing TDs (21 total). The Seahawks are balanced in terms of scheme, as they run single-high 50.4% of the time and zone coverage at a 63% frequency. Their top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (27%) and Cover 1 (22.8%). Against those 2 coverages, Darnold has positive splits, averaging 10.32 YPA, a 67.8% completion rate and a 106.6 QB rating. It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks force the lowest aDOT in the league (7.0), meaning they force shorter throws. Darnold has the 5^th highest aDOT out of qualifying QBs, so it’ll be interesting to see whose tendencies play out in this one, or we meet somewhere in the middle. I think the most interesting angle to play here is Darnold’s over in passing TDs. Despite ranking middle of the pack, the Seahawks have allowed 64% of opposing QBs to go over their pass TD line against them. Darnold has a 71% hit rate at this line and it trades at plus money.

Suggested Pick
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (+112)

RB Aaron Jones
Jones averages 69.9 rushing yards per game on 4.55 YPC and has rushed for 5 TDs. He’s also averaging 23 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Seahawks defense allowing the 11^th most rushing yards per game (127.5) and the 8^th most YPC (4.66). The Seahawks also allow the 11^th most receiving yards to RB (36.36 YPG). They specifically allow 5.17 YPC against man/gap concepts, compared to 4.56 YPC against zone concepts. 56.7% of Jones’ attempts have been in zone concept, where he averages 4.47 YPC and a 53.3% success rate. That compares to 4.58 YPC and a 46.7% success rate against man/gap concept. I think there’s upside for Jones in both the rushing and receiving categories, so I prefer playing the rush and receiving combo at 83.5. He’s hit this line at a 64% rate this season.

Suggested Pick
“O” 83.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-117)

WR Justin Jefferson
JJetta is averaging 88.8 receiving yards per game, 2.71 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 33.2%. The Seahawks allow the 9^th fewest receiving yards to WR (136.79), but the T-8^th most receiving TDs to WR (1.07). Jefferson primarily lines up out wide, at a 70.3% rate. The Seahawks force the 3^rd lowest target share to out wide (35.8%) and the 3^rd highest to the slot (36.3%). The Seahawks are balanced in terms of scheme, as they run single-high 50.4% of the time and zone coverage at a 63% frequency. Their top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (27%) and Cover 1 (22.8%). Against these 2 coverages, Jefferson sees a boost to 3.55 YPRR on 28% TPRR. His 1^st-read rate also increases further to 38.6%. It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks force the lowest aDOT in the league (7.0), meaning they force shorter throws. JJetta has an aDOT of 12, which is lower than Addison but higher than Hockenson. Makes sense since he operates all over the field. I lean over in an “ok” matchup, as his line feels like at 79.5.

Suggested Pick
“O” 79.5 Rec Yds (-115)

WR Jordan Addison
Addison averages 64.3 receiving yards per game, 2.20 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 24.6%. The Seahawks allow the 9^th fewest receiving yards to WR (136.79), but the T-8^th most receiving TDs to WR (1.07). Addison lines up out wide on 65.8% of his routes and in the slot at a 33.9% rate. The Seahawks allow the 3^rd lowest target share to wide alignment (35.8%) and the 3^rd highest to the slot (36.3%). The Seahawks are balanced in terms of scheme, as they run single-high 50.4% of the time and zone coverage at a 63% frequency. Their top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (27%) and Cover 1 (22.8%). Addison sees positive production splits on similar volume against these 2 coverages, averaging 2.58 YPRR and 20% TPRR. It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks force the lowest aDOT in the league (7.0), meaning they force shorter throws. Addison has the highest aDOT on the team as he’s used a lot as the deep threat.

Suggested Pick
“O” 51.5 Rec Yds (-115)

TE TJ Hockenson
Hockenson averages 50.1 receiving yards per game, 1.93 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He was slowly worked in after coming back from injury week 9, but he’s a full go now with a route share above 75% in 3 of the last 4 games, with the 1 under at a healthy 66.7% rate. The Seahawks allow the 9^th most receiving yards to TE (56.93 YPG). Hockenson lines up inline on 58.2% of his routes and in the slot at a 26.9% frequency. The Seahawks allow the T-12^th highest target share to inline (11.9%) and the 3^rd highest to the slot (36.3%). The Seahawks are balanced in terms of scheme, as they run single-high 50.4% of the time and zone coverage at a 63% frequency. Their top 2 coverages in terms of frequency are Cover 3 (27%) and Cover 1 (22.8%). Hockenson sees increased production and volume against these 2 coverages, averaging 3.19 YPRR and a 28% TPRR. It’s also worth noting that the Seahawks force the lowest aDOT in the league (7.0), meaning they force shorter throws. Hockenson has the lowest aDOT out of the main weapons for the Vikings, so this matchup may produce increased volume as the underneath guy.

Suggested Pick
“O” 41.5 Rec Yds (-115)
50+ Rec Yds (+145)
60+ Rec Yds (+235)

QB Geno Smith
Geno Smith is averaging 258.8 passing yards per game, 7.47 YPA and has thrown 14 TDs. He has an 89.9 QB rating and a completion rate of 69.9%. He faces a Vikings defense allowing the 3^rd most passing yards (265.43 YPG) but the 12^th fewest passing TDs (1.36). The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the league at 39.1%. Geno has positive splits against the blitz, averaging 8.63 YPA and a QB rating of 91.9, compared to 7.02 YPA and an 89.1 QB rating when not blitz. They play two-high 65.3% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. They also play zone coverage at the 6^th highest rate (75%). Geno has positive splits against two-high, averaging 7.82 YPA and a QB rating of 94.3. He also has positive splits against the zone, averaging 7.72 YPA and a QB rating of 94.7. With the Vikings having an elite rush defense, Geno should be forced to throw the ball often.

Suggested Pick
“O” 228.5 Pass Yds (-115)

RB Kenneth Walker
Walker is set to return after missing the last 2 games with a calf injury. With how well Charbonnet played in his absence, as well as Charbonnet being named a team captain this week, wouldn’t be surprised to see this closer to a 50-50 split. Walker averages 54.2 rushing yards per game on 3.74 YPC. He’s rushed for 7 TDs. He’s also averaging 27.1 receiving yards per game. He’ll face the Vikings, who allow the 2^nd fewest rushing yards per game (89.1) and the 2^nd fewest YPC (3.87). They are also tied for the league low in rushing TDs allowed (7). They are specifically strong against man/gap concepts. They allow 3.14 YPC, which is the 2^nd lowest in the league. That compares to 4.4 YPC against zone concepts, 12^th highest allowed. 46.9% of Walker’s attempts have been in man/gap concepts, and he’s been more effective, averaging 4.00 YPC compared to 3.51 YPC in zone concepts. Walker’s strength is going up against the Vikings strength, not a great matchup here. In terms of the receiving game, the Vikings allow the 7^th fewest receiving yards to RB. With the split with Charbonnet and an elite defense against RBs, I’m inclined to fade both guys.

Suggested Pick
“U” 55.5 Rush Yds (-110)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
JSN has been elite as of late, with 69+ receiving yards in 7 straight games. In his first 7 games, he averaged 45.6 receiving yards per game, 1.20 YPRR and 20% TPRR. He was 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 21.3%. In the past 7 games, he’s averaging an elite 96.4 receiving yards per game, 3.03 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. His 1^st-read rate is up to 30.6%. Now he faces the Vikings, who allow the most receiving yards per game to WR. The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the league at 39.1%. Since week 8, JSN averages 3.04 YPRR and a 19% TPRR against the blitz. The Vikings play two-high 65.3% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. They also play zone coverage at the 6^th highest rate (75%). Against two-high, JSN averages 3.29 YPRR and a 26% TPRR since week 8. Against zone, he has negative splits, averaging 2.38 YPRR and a 21% TPRR since week 8. Looking at pre-snap alignment, JSN has lined up in the slot on 83.4% of his routes since week 8. The Vikings allow the 9^th highest target share (33.7%) and the 5^th most receiving yards per game (87.1) to the slot. Outside of the bearish zone scheme, the rest of the outlook is JSN to continue his success against the Vikings.

Suggested Pick
“O” 62.5 Rec Yds (-114)
70+ Rec Yds (+135)
80+ Rec Yds (+210)
90+ Rec Yds (+310)

WR DK Metcalf
On the season, DK averages 70 receiving yards per game, 2.01 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. However, in the past 5 weeks since he came back from injury, there’s been a changing of the guard. He’s averaging 1.75 YPRR, 21% TPRR but still commands a higher 1^st-read rate than JSN at 33%. Looking at the matchup, the Vikings allow the most receiving yards per game to WR (190.93). The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the league at 39.1%. DK averages 2.13 YPRR and a 21% TPRR against the blitz, not a material split. The Vikings play two-high 65.3% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. They also play zone coverage at the 6^th highest rate (75%). Against two-high, DK averages an identical 2.01 YPRR on less volume, 18% TPRR. Against zone, DK averages 2.00 YPRR and 21% TPRR. Looking at pre-snap alignment, DK has lined up out wide on 86.1% of his routes. The Vikings allow the 12^th highest target share (42.3%) and the most receiving yards per game (127.4) to wide alignment.

Suggested Pick
“U” 63.5 Rec Yds (-114)

The Vikings and Seahawks offenses rank as the 4^th and 5^th best according to PFF power rankings. Defenses on the other hand are slightly below average. Vikings record has been aided by the 2^nd easiest schedule to date. With the Seahawks at home and having more to play for, I expect them to win outright. Points should be plentiful in this one. I expect the Seahawks to air it out all game as the Vikings have an elite rush defense. Shootout potential here, but even in a decent game script, 42.5 feels low.

Best Bet (Over 42.5)
Lean (Seahawks +3.5)
Seahawks 24 Vikings 21

Anytime Touchdown: 

Best Pick: (MIN) Aaron Jones -110
Jones has scored a TD in 4 straight and has a 50% hit rate on the season. An RB has scored a TD in 3 straight games against the Seahawks, and their rushing defense overall is not great. Jones also has potential to catch one out of the backfield, his usage is high and he’s the highest probability to find the endzone for good reason.

Longshot: (MIN) Jalen Nailor +800
The Seahawks are a slot funnel and Nailor primarily plays out of the slot. He has not seen much volume since the return of Hockenson and Addison, but I love a sprinkle as a longshot. He has 5 TDs on the season.

1st Touchdown: 

Best Pick: (MIN) Aaron Jones +500
Same analysis as above, the Seahawks allow the 8^th most rushing yards per game and the 11^th most receiving yards to RB. He’s found the end zone in 4 straight and with his multidimensional scoring opportunities, I love his chances to score first.

Longshot: (SEA) Jaxon Smith-Njigba +1000
This guy has been unreal as of late, showing why he was the top WR taken 2 seasons ago. He’s seen 3 redzone targets in the past 2 weeks and since the Vikings are so dominant against the run, the first TD for the Seahawks is more likely to be a pass. I’ll take the Seahawks top option the past 7 weeks.

Parlay #1: (+321)

Geno Smith O 225.5 Pass Yds

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 60+ Rec Yds

TJ Hockenson 40+ Rec yds

Parlay #2: (+948)

TJ Hockenson 60+ Rec Yds

Aaron Jones 80+ Rush+Rec Yds

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 70+ Rec Yds

Parlay #3: Longshot (+3290)

Jalen Nailor Anytime TD

Geno Smith O 225.5 Pass Yds

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 90+ Rec Yds

QB Drake Maye
Drake Maye's performance last week was uneven, but the final numbers were respectable. Despite a slow start with  only 82 passing yards with a 5.1 YPA and an interception through three quarters, Maye found his rhythm late. In the fourth quarter, he went 7-of-8 for 120 yards, threw an off-script touchdown pass, and added a rushing touchdown. Throughout the season, Maye has demonstrated consistency, finishing outside the top 18 quarterbacks in only one complete game. He has been particularly accurate against zone-heavy defenses, completing 80% and 82.6% of his passes over the past two weeks against Indianapolis and Arizona. This week, he faces a Buffalo defense that plays zone coverage on 72.7% of its snaps (9th in the league) and has a low blitz rate of 16.3% (30th) While the Bills' defense has recently struggled against quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff, it remains a stronger unit than those of the Colts and Cardinals with Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray. Given the heavy zone look from the Bills defense, I am really liking Maye’s chances to find some guys underneath in the 2nd half while facing likely a sizable deficit against a heavy favorite.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 19.5 Pass Completions (-120)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson has been a steady contributor, even if his performances rarely stand out. While his production hasn’t been explosive, at least 15% of his carries have failed to gain yardage in 8 consecutive game. Only 4 running backs this season (Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, and Kyren Williams) have more games with 20 carries and at least one reception than Stevenson. On Sunday in Arizona, Stevenson turned 14 touches into 85 yards. However, he hasn’t surpassed 100 total yards in a game since the season opener, nor has he reached the end zone since Week 9. He has had an impressive workload, as he has handled 60% or more of New England’s backfield touches in 6 of the past 7 games. This week, Stevenson faces a Buffalo defense that has struggled with RBs, allowing an average of 4.66 YPC, which is the 9th highest in the NFL. Although the Patriots enter as significant underdogs on the road, Stevenson’s usage could be limited should they fall behind early like I expect, but I do like his chances in breaking out a longer run.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 8.5 Yard Long Rush (-120)

WR DeMario Douglas
Demario Douglas has been inconsistent this season, with just one game surpassing 70 receiving yards. However, he has shown signs of improvement, especially with his recent efficiency, catching 85.7% of his targets over the past 3 games. While he isn't a game-changer, there is potential for Douglas to be involved more, particularly in situations where the team is trailing, as the Patriots have been behind for 61.3% of their offensive snaps this season. This often results in more opportunities for shorter routes, which is where Douglas can make an impact. Buffalo's defense has allowed opponents to favor short passes, as indicated by the lowest aDOT against them this season. This could provide Douglas with additional chances for receptions, even if they aren't flashy. While his output may not be exciting, there is still room for him to contribute.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-152)

TE Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry caught all 4 of his targets for 25 yards on Sunday. Over the season, he has emerged as a key part of the passing game, leading New England with 21.1% of the team's targets when Drake Maye is under center. In last week’s game, where the Patriots were trailing for the vast majority of snaps, Henry was utilized minimally downfield, registering just 9 air yards. The upcoming matchup against Buffalo presents another tough challenge. The Bills rank in the top 10 in limiting yards after the catch and touchdown percentage to tight ends, making this a difficult spot for Henry to make a significant impact given the matchup. However, the situation at WR for the Patriots is also quite a mess, so I could see Henry having high volume just out of virtue of that, making this a tough call.

Suggested Play
Pass

QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen has put together an incredible season, and according to many, an MVP caliber year as he has gotten it done on both the ground and through the air. On the season, Allen has managed a YPA of 7.95, which ranks 8th overall in the NFL. He also has thrown 25 TDs to just 5 INTs, and that is while taking some shots downfield. Allen’s deep-throw completion % sits at 13.7, which is the 9th highest in the NFL. This definitely could be something to watch, as the Patriots have allowed 12.7% of deep balls against them to be completed, which is the 6th most in the NFL. The Patriots defensively are in man coverage on 38.5% of their snaps, which is the 3rd highest rate in the NFL. Allen has been great against man coverage, as his YPA spikes up to 9.00 and his deep ball % spikes up to 16.5. He also has thrown for a league leading 17 TDs against man coverage on the season, and that is out of his 25 total passes. I am looking for Allen to find some deep shots early in this game to help open this game up, but I am not interested in betting an overall yardage play due to a potentially heavy running game script.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 36.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115)

RB James Cook
Buffalo's running backs delivered a dominant performance last week, racking up 285 yards and 3 touchdowns against one of the league's toughest defenses. James Cook played a significant role, posting his 3rd game of the season with 100 rushing yards and his 4th with multiple rushing scores.Although his production has fluctuated between 27, 120, 29, and 133 yards over the past 4 games. Seven percent of his touches this season have resulted in touchdowns, the highest rate among running backs with significant workloads. While his usage has been inconsistent, going over 15 touches in just 2 of the past 8 games, Cook remains a key part of Buffalo’s offense. This week, Cook faces another favorable matchup. The Bills are significant home favorites against a New England defense that struggles against the run, with The Patriots also facing 27.9 backfield touches per game, the 6th-most in the NFL, which could give Cook ample opportunities to contribute once again.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 14.5 Rush Attempts (-105)

WR Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir caught 6 of 7 targets for 39 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, marking his second consecutive game with a score after finding the end zone only twice in the first 11 games of the season. Despite Buffalo leaning heavily on a 2-tight end and 2-running back approach against Detroit’s weakened linebacker group, Shakir maintained a key role in the offense. With Dalton Kincaid back in action, Buffalo used its highest rate of 12 personnel (14.7%) since Week 10 and its highest rate of 21 personnel (13.2%) this season. This shift in strategy reduced Shakir's route participation to 64.9%, his lowest since Week 6. Even so, he accounted for 21.9% of the team's targets, continuing to solidify his role in the offense. As the season progresses with a fully healthy Buffalo roster, Shakir has remained one of the most consistent contributors. He ranks second on the team with a target on 26.7% of his routes and leads the team with 2.35 yards per route run. This is a solid look for Shakir, specifically early in the game while the Bills will be looking towards the air.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 27.5 1H Receiving Yards (-120)

WR Keon Coleman
Keon Coleman made the most of his limited opportunities on Sunday, catching 1 of 2 targets for 64 yards on a spectacular throw by Josh Allen. Despite running only 20 routes, Coleman showcased his big-play potential. Buffalo continues to rotate receivers outside of their core contributors. Mack Hollins leads the outside receivers in playing time due to his run-blocking capabilities, while Khalil Shakir has secured the slot role. This leaves Coleman, Amari Cooper, and Curtis Samuel sharing the remaining snaps, making their involvement inconsistent. Even with limited routes, Coleman has been a key target in high-leverage situations. His five end-zone targets rank 2nd on the team, just behind Hollins (6). Coleman is being eased back into action following a wrist injury, and his dynamic skill set gives him the potential to make significant contributions as he regains a larger role in the offense. Buffalo faces New England this week, a matchup where Coleman’s deep-play ability could shine and end up in the end zone

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+250)

TE Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid returned to action after missing three games with a knee injury, catching 4 of 7 targets for 53 yards. He was tied for the team lead in target share at 21.9% and has been targeted on a team-high 26.9% of his routes this season. However, his playing time remains limited, as Kincaid was on the field for only 59.5% of the dropbacks on Sunday, slightly below his season average of 65.2%. While his target rate per route is second only to Trey McBride among tight ends, and he ranks 11th in yards per route run (1.67), his limited snap count prevents him from fully capitalizing on his efficiency.Kincaid’s potential is clear given his strong role in the offense and his ability to generate production when on the field. If his route participation goes up this week, his contributions could become even more impactful. This week, Kincaid faces a New England defense that has allowed 7.4 yards per target (16th) and a 4.9% touchdown rate (23rd) to tight ends, presenting a decent opportunity for him to build on his performance.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-105)

While Drake Maye has shown some signs of life this season, bringing excitement to the Pats offense, this is a game where one of the worst teams in the NFL matches up with one of the best. The Patriots season is over and meanwhile the Bills are in the thick of the AFC race still battling for seeding position. There isn’t much this Pats defense can do to stop Josh Allen right now, and I expect this one to get ugly early, with the Pats maybe finding a late score or two against the Bills’ reserves.

Best Bet: Bills -13.5 -120
Lean: Over 46.5 -110
Bills 33 Patriots 17

Anytime TD

(Bills) Keon Coleman +250
Coleman has been a key target in high-leverage situations. His five end-zone targets rank 2nd on the team, just behind Hollins (6). Coleman is being eased back into action following a wrist injury, and his dynamic skill set gives him the potential to make significant contributions as he regains a larger role in the offense. Buffalo faces New England this week, a matchup where Coleman’s deep-play ability could shine and end up in the end zone.

(Patriots) Rhamondre Stevenson +123
Stevenson has not scored in 5 games, but he is more than due, and is getting more volume than ever. The Bills secondary is their strength, but they have been a bit worse against the run, allowing 1.1 TDs per game to an opponent’s RB, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. Stevenson is also a guy who can score in both the passing game and the running game, so there is a variety of ways he can score.

First TD

(Bills) Josh Allen +450
Allen is currently on an extraordinary scoring run, with 8 rushing touchdowns in his last 5 games, including 5 in his most recent two outings. Nearly all of these touchdowns have come from inside the 10-yard line, which poses a significant challenge for the Patriots defense. They rank sixth-worst in defensive goal-to-go efficiency, allowing a touchdown on 81.3% of opponents' goal line chances.

Anytime Touchdown Picks

First Touchdown Picks

QB Spencer Rattler
Oh, brother. Another Spencer Rattler week? Really? Well, to be fair, it will be better than Jake Haener. Rattler has appeared in four Saints this season; he has a 57.5% completion percentage for 706 passing yards and a 2-2 TD-to-INT ratio. There's really not a massive sample size to dissect his performance. The Packers run the fourth most zone coverage in the league (76.8%). Rattler sees his completion percentage rise to 59.3% against zone, has 610 passing yards against the coverage and his yards per attempt jumps to 6.7. So, he is more comfortable throwing against zone. However, it will still be a tough matchup for Rattler. The Packers do allow 14th most passing yards (234.4) to opposing QBs, but they also average an interception per game this season. Rattler might be a decent QB in this league, but he doesn't really have a plethora of weapons to throw to. One guy they do have is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who's a deep threat for this team without Rashid Shaheed. They have connected on a few deep balls, but the Packers allow just the 22nd highest deep ball completion percentage (9.5%). I don't doubt Rattler will rely on MVS, as he's really his only real weapon; however, it might be tougher than normal for them to connect, especially in a poor weather game.

Suggested Pick:
Spencer Rattler Interception (-190)

RB Kendre Miller
The only bright spot for this offence without Derek Carr, Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed, is Alvin Kamara. Well, guess what? Alvin Kamara has been ruled out for this contest, opening the opportunity for Kendre Miller to dominate the touches in this backfield. It might not be pretty, but in a projected snow game and a backup QB under centre, Miller should be relied upon more than he ever has in his short career. The Packers are an above average run defence, allowing the 13th fewest rushing yards (87.1) but struggle against pass catching RBs, allowing the seventh most receptions (5.1) and the fourth most receiving yards (41.3) per game. This would have been a prime matchup for Kamara. To be fair to Miller, Kamara would always been on passing snaps for the Saints. But he has seen 31 snaps and has 28 rush attempts on the season. He's turned those 28 attempts into 130 rushing yards, for an average of 4.6 yards per carry, which is an impressive stat for a backup RB. It might be a tough matchup for Miller because the Packers run defence is better against zone concept, where they allow 3.84 yards per carry. However, they do run 44.6% zone scheme, which is more than they run man/gap. Miller's splits in zone scheme doesn't even compare to his splits against man/gap. Miller sees his yards per carry go from 1.78 against man/gap to 6.5 against zone scheme. What we should be banking on in this matchup is Miller's volume. Kamara averages 16.3 rush attempts on the season. Without him, in a snowy game, we should be able to project Miller to get close to that number, especially with Rattler under centre.

Suggested Pick:
Kendre Miller o12.5 Rush Attempts (-135)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
This Saints WR room is really hurting for talent. Star WRs like Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are out for the remainder of the season, and MVS was nabbed after getting released from the Buffalo Bills. He has played six games in a Saints uniform and to be fair, he hasn't been targeted much. He has earned just 23 targets in those games, but have caught 14 of them. While that doesn't look impressive, MVS is mainly a deep ball threat. His aDoT is at a ridiculous 20.8, leading to a massive 25.1 yards per reception. Unfortunately for MVS, the Packers are great at limiting opposing WRs, as they allow the sixth fewest receiving yards (133.6) per game. The Packers run the fourth most zone coverage in the league (76.8%). MVS does his best work against zone coverage, catching 11 of his 21 targets for 311 of his 352 receiving yards against the coverage. He sees his yards per reception skyrocket from 13.4 against man to 28.1 against zone, his yards after catch per reception jump from 1.2 against man to 10.5 against zone, and his yards per route run go from 1.22 against man to 2.27 against zone. MVS lines up on the right 39% of the time, and will likely draw the Eric Stokes matchup. Stokes has been great over the past month, only allowing five receptions on 11 targets for 18 receiving yards. This won't be an easy matchup for MVS, no matter which way you slice it. Especially considering he's primarily a deep threat in a game that weather projects to play a factor.

Suggested Pick:
Marquez Valdes-Scantling u31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Cedrick Wilson
We won't go too in-depth on Wilson because he only has 13 receptions on 17 targets for 159 receiving yards this season. However, outside of MVS, Wilson is the only Saints WR with over 100 receiving yards on the team. Yeah, that's how ugly this is. Wilson only has two receptions on three targets over the last three weeks, but those two receptions went for 18 and 19 yards. Wilson has caught eight of 10 targets against zone coverage for 83 receiving yards. Wilson plays quite a bit of slot receiver at 45% and will likely draw the Keisean Nixon matchup. Nixon has allowed 15 receptions on 20 targets over his previous three games for 121 receiving yards. In a potential snow game where short area passes should come at a high rate, Wilson might be used more than previous weeks, especially enough to go over his low receiving yards line.

Suggested Pick:
Cedrick Wilson o7.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Juwan Johnson

Johnson is second on the Saints in receiving this season with 36 receptions on 45 targets for 375 receiving yards and three TDs. Johnson has been a steady target for this Saints team in the absence of their top two receiver weapons and now will need to be relied upon even more with no Kamara. Johnson has 14 receptions on 16 targets, averaging 32 receiving yards over his last three games. The Packers are a good target for opposing TEs, as they allow 5.8 receptions on 7.6 targets and the sixth most receiving yards (59.4) per game. Against zone coverage, Johnson has a low target share (13.4%), but a high catch rate (78.6%) and 10.5 yards per reception agaist the coverage. Johnson lines up inline 44% of his routes. To inline receivers, the Packers allow the eighth-highest catch rate (81%) and the 10th most receiving yards (28.5) per game. The Saints are going to need Johnson a lot in this matchup, one that is favourable to players in his position. Johnson has recorded 30+ receiving yards in three of his previous four games, and seven of his last 10 games, averaging 33.6 per game.

Suggested pick:

Juwan Johnson o28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Jordan Love
Jordan Love was a dominant passer last season, but they kind of live in the same realm as Jalen Hurts and the Eagles where they are heavily relying on their RB for most of their offence. Love threw for 30+ pass attempts through his first seven games but hasn't thrown more than 28 times in his most recent five weeks. But, in all honesty, they haven't needed to rely on Love's arm. They are 4-1 over that span. He averages just 23 pass attempts in those games. Despite their porous record, the Saints do allow the 11th-most completions (22), fifth most pass attempts (35.3) and passing yards (258.3) per game. The Saints run the 13th-most man coverage in the league, which could cause a problem for Love as he struggles against man. He has the 27th most passing yards per game (52.4) and just a 52.1% completion percentage against man. Love even sees his efficiency dip as he sees his yards per attempt dip from 9.08 against zone to 6.55 against man. It projects to be a snowy game for this one, and as 14 point favourites, I can't imagine they're suddenly going to throw the ball more than they have been, especially against a heavy man coverage team that Love already struggles against.

Suggested Pick:
Jordan Love u29.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

RB Josh Jacobs
While Love's pass attempts have gone down, Jacobs' rush attempts have skyrocketed. Throughout the first nine games of the season, there were only four games where he saw 18+ rush attmepts. However, he has seen that volume in every single game over his previous five. And that shouldn't slow down in this weeks matchup against the Saints, who're allowing 21.6 rush attempts and the ninth most rushing yards (104.9). It should be another massive game volume-wise for Jacobs, especially in a snow game, where running is primarily relied upon. The Saints run more zone scheme (47%) and allow a higher yards per carry (4.94) than they do against man/gap. Well, that's great for Jacobs, as he averages a better yards per carry (4.4) against zone scheme. Jacobs is having a dominant year on the ground. He currently sits fourth in rush attempts (265) and third in rushing yards (1,147). However, he sits 44th in yards per attempt at just 4.3 yards per carry. Well, this game might be a blowout and they might give Jacobs a rest in a game they don't really need him. For that reason, his yards intrigue me a bit more, especially considering the Saints are giving up the third highest yards per carry (4.9) in the league.

Suggested Pick:
Josh Jacobs o89.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Jayden Reed
With this Jacobs ascension and Love's regression, it has really hurt Jayden Reed. Reed had 13 receptions on 18 targets over his past five games, averaging just 21.4 receiving yards per game. He's really been a non-factor for this Packers passing offence. But it's a great matchup for Packers WRs, as they allow the fourth most receiving yards (173.6) per game. With the Saints running more man coverage, that might be more of the same for Reed. He has the worst PFF grade against man coverage on the Packers, but the best against zone coverage. Reed has caught just nine of his 18 targets for 109 receiving yards and one TD. He sees his yards per reception dip from 16.1 against zone to 12.1 against man, his yards per reception fall from 8.5 against zone to 4.3 against man, his aDoT dip from 8.5 against zone to 6.1 against man, and his yards per route run fall from 2.91 against zone to 1.14 against man. Those are brutal differences. Reed lines up in the slot 68% of the time, and will likely draw the Ugo Amadi matchup. Amadi has only become a mainstay in this Saints defence since Week 8. From Week 10 on, he has been targeted a lot, averaging 9.2 targets, allowing 7.2 receptions and 65.4 receiving yards per game. So, what breaks here? Is it Reed against a man heavy team? Or does Amadi finally have a good game? I feel, in a snowy game, the low aDoT throws will prevail and Reed can at least catch some balls against a CB allowing a lot of receptions as of late in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Jayden Reed o3.5 Receptions (-145)

WR Romeo Doubs
Now, I'm probably on an island here in this thinking, but I believe Romeo Doubs is Love's favourite target. Well, I can believe it, but the numbers tell the true story. Romeo Doubs leads the Packers in targets per game (5.3), ahead of Reed (4.6) and Watson (3.9). Doubs returned to the Packers lineup last week against the Seahawks, catching three of his five targets for 40 yards but two TDs. Against a man heavy team like the Saints, Doubs does have an advantage. He has the second highest PFF grade against the coverage, catching 11 of 16 targets for 153 receiving yards, but all four of his TDs have come against man. He is still good against both coverages, as he only sees a small increase in his yards after catch per reception (3.9) and his aDoT (13.8). Doubs lines up on the right 44% of the time, and will likely draw the Alontae Taylor matchup. Taylor has been targeted 27 times over the past month, allowing 16 receptions for an average of 78.3 receiving yards per game and two TDs. New Orleans are surprisingly very good against outside wide receivers, allowing just a 44% catch rate against man coverage. While it shouldn't be a heavy-throwing game for Love, Roubs should be his main target for him to clear his receiving yards line. Doubs has gone over 40 receiving yards in five of his last seven games.

Suggested Pick:
Romeo Doubs o39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Christian Watson
Christian Watson is a great WR, but in this offence, he pretty much serves as the deep option for Love. Reed is the short area of the field guy, Doubs is the middle of the field and Watson is the deep threat. And that reflects in their season splits, but also against their man splits. Watson leads the trio in aDoT (18.3), with Doubs right behind (13.8) and Reed by far the last with (6.1). However, Watson leads the team in PFF grade against man, catching 14 of his 26 targets for 277 receiving yards and one TD. That's an average of 19.3 yards per reception. The only problem is the snow game. Typically, in these matchups, you don't see deep throws, nor do they connect. Watson lines up on the left 44% of the time, and will likely draw the Kool-Aid McKinstry matchup. McKinstry has had a successful season, outside of last week where he allowed a reception on all five of his targets, but for just 31 receiving yards. What goes against Watson, is that McKinstry allows just an 11.9 yards per reception. For a guy who's targeted at such a low rate and heavily depends on the deep ball, isn't going to succeed in a bad weather matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Christian Watson u47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft has been my guy, and only because I picked him up in a lot of my fantasy leagues. He has been pretty good lately, catching 11 of his 13 targets, averaging 51 receiving yards per game. Kraft has a great catch rate against man coverage, catching eight of his 10 targets, but for only 90 receiving yards. The Saints allow the 10th-fewest receptions (4.8) but the 13th-most receiving yards (54) to TEs per game this season. Kraft lines up inline 55.3% of the time. However, to inline receivers, the Saints allow the fifth lowest catch rate (50%). But, New Orleans have allowed opposing TEs to go over their reception line in four of their last five games. Despite Kraft only reaching this number in one of his previous four games, it was against a top targeted TE team (Miami Dolphins), which the Saints are. If it's going to be a snowy game, short area of the field targets – like Kraft, who averages the lowest aDoT of the main receivers (3.0) – Kraft should be able to shock the world by having a decent volume game.

Suggested Pick:
Tucker Kraft 3+ Receptions (-220) (parlay piece)

I hate to back the favourite at such a high spread, but it's hard not to when the Saints are missing Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. The Saints should be trying to lose out for a higher draft pick, and while the Packers can't catch the Lions or Vikings for the Division lead, they are battling the Commanders to hold onto their fifth place position and could clinch a playoff berth with a win. They should put their pedal to the medal for an inspiring win here.

Best Bet: Under 44.5 -110
Lean: Packers -13.5 -120
Packers 27 - Bears 7

Anytime TD Picks

Josh Jacobs TD (-250)
Well, it's absolutely chalk and not at a playable number. But this man is finding the end zone, so throw him in your parlays for an extra bonus. Jacobs' volume is through the roof and he has found the end zone five straight games, two of which he scored three times.

Juwan Johnson TD (+450)
Now, this is a bit of a long shot, but for a guy who's scored in two of the past four games, it's a pretty good number. As we touched on, the Packers struggle against opposing TEs and Johnson projects to be the number one passing option with all their injuries. Johnson hasn't allowed a TD to opposing TEs in three straight games, but before that, had allowed two in the previous four games.

First Touchdown Picks

Josh Jacobs First TD (+250)
The Packers have started hot this season, scoring the first TD in 10 of their 14 games this season: Jacobs with three, Kraft and Wicks with two and Reed, Doubs and Willis with one. With what we saw last week against the Seahawks, Jacobs was given seven carries and two targets on the opening drive, which was the only Packer to receive the ball from Love on the opening drive. Should expect more of the same in a similar game script.

Kendre Miller First TD (+1000)
To get a starting running back for the first TD with +1000 odds is insane in today's TD scorer's betting. Now, he hasn't got a good track record, however, he did score first in one of his three games this season. The Saints have scored the first TD in six of 14 games this season: Hill with two and Kamara, MVS, Shaheed and Miller all have one.

Parlay 1: +170 odds on bet365

Spencer Rattler Interception

Kendre Miller 50+ Rush & Receiving Yards

Juwan Johnson 20+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: +150 odds on bet365

Josh Jacobs TD

Josh Jacobs 70+ Rushing Yards

Tucker Kraft 3+ Receptions

Parlay 3: +575 odds on bet365

Juwan Johnson 40+ Receiving Yards

Josh Jacobs 100+ Rushing Yards