TNF Texans vs Jets @8:15 EST

QB CJ Stroud

Despite a solid game yards wise in his last outing against the Colts, the overall success of a year ago has not been matched as of late for CJ Stroud. Going into this game against the Jets, the outlook for Stroud shows some mixed signals. First of all, the Jets are in man coverage 37.3% of the time, which is the 6th most in NFL. In particular, their man looks constitute primarily Cover 1, which they are in 33.8% of the time, ranking 4th in the NFL. Since the firing of Robert Saleh, they have used it even a little more, being in zone 40.2% of the time from Week 6 onwards. Stroud has actually faired pretty well against Cover 1, with a 8.44 YPA against the coverage that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Jets also have been able to get after the passer well, forcing pressure on 38.8% of dropbacks, which is the 3rd highest rate in the league. CJ Stroud has also been solid at handling pressure, with a 6.45 YPA (14th in the NFL), and a 48.8% completion rate (12th in NFL) against it. The issue here for Stroud is that he does not have many options to throw the ball to, with both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs out in this game. Because of that, it is pretty difficult to get a feel for how Stroud will perform overall even in an ok matchup.

Suggested Bet:
Pass

RB Joe Mixon

When healthy, Mixon has been this Texans team’s bell cow. In games he has been healthy this year, he has 30, 13, 25, and 25 carries. As mentioned earlier, the Jets show a lot of man concepts defensively (37.3% of the time to be exact, 6th in NFL). Mixon has seen a good amount of success when getting carries against man concepts, with 6.29 YPC, ranking 6th in the NFL among RBs with at least 25 rush attempts. The Jets have been good against the run, but have been better against it when lined up in a zone, giving up 3.63 YPC in zone (7th in NFL) in comparison to 4.46 YPC (13th in NFL) while in man coverage. When you factor the injuries that the Texans have at WR, as well as the run game potentially just being the Texans’ best option to move the ball, I like this spot for Mixon to have high volume, also with the backup RB in Dameon Pierce out in this game.

Suggested Bet:
“O” 19.5 rush attempts (-135)

WR Tank Dell

With Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs both out of this game, Tank Dell takes over as this Texans team clear-cut number 1 option. Dell has struggled at times this year, averaging only 1.08 yards per route run, which is 4th on the team out of WRs, despite having the 2nd most routes run overall on the team at 156 on the year. While Diggs has been used often in the slot, Dell has predominantly used on the other boundary opposite of Collins. With no Collins in this game, that should give Dell a tough matchup directly matched up with Sauce Gardner, who has allowed only a 10.9% target rate on WRs matched up with him. Dell is understandably seeing a drastically inflated yards line with Collins and Diggs both out and against a very tough Jets pass defense, but with all the attention on Dell, I see this number as far too high regardless.

Suggested Bet:
“U” 57.5 receiving yards (-110)
“U” 22.5 longest reception (-110)

WR John Metchie / WR Xavier Hutchinson

After Diggs exited last Sunday’s game due to his injury, Xavier Hutchinson dominated the routes run outside of Dell. While John Metchie had better visible numbers with 3 catches, he also only ran 5 routes in comparison to 25 from Hutchinson. Hutchinson has struggled this year, with only 0.71 YPRR in comparison to 1.09 for Metchie on just 17.3 routes run% in comparison to 28.1% for Hutchinson. Both of these WRs line up primarily out wide and are in direct competition for routes. I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that with a week to evaluate his WR corps, the Texans will finally start giving Metchie more routes runs at the expense of Hutchinson given the fact that Metchie has been far more efficient,

Suggested Bets:
 “U” 19.5 receiving yards (-110)

TE Dalton Schultz

Schultz is a guy who was able to step up last week in the absence of Diggs and Collins, racking up 52 yards on 4 receptions, which was his season high. The Jets passing defense has been solid as a whole, but have not been as good against TEs as they have been against WRs. They give up the 11th fewest receptions per game to TEs (4.9 per game), in comparison to giving up the fewest to WRs (8.5 per game). The loss of Collins has made a significant difference for Schultz as well. He is being targeted on 17.5% of routes without Nico on the field, and only 12.5% with him. With uncertainty at WR for Houston outside of Dell, and with Dell being on Sauce Gardner, I anticipate Schultz being a comfortable target for Stroud to look towards all game.

Suggested Bets:
“O” 39.5 receiving yards (-120)

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers has picked up his play a little bit over the past couple of weeks, but the issue here for him is how he has done it and now if this can work against the Texans. The Texans are interesting defensively in that they have the 2nd lowest YPA allowed in the NFL at only 6.14. With that being said, they specifically have struggled against the deep ball with the highest deep throw % allowed in the league at 17.6%, and also the highest aDOT against at 10.7. They do not give opponent’s many free yards through the air, with a 5.7 CHK% that is the 3rd lowest in the league. Rodgers’ success has come more so in the short and intermediate game, but has not had success down field with a 9.2 deep throw % (32nd in the NFL), and also a 7.3 passing aDOT (34th in NFL). The openings will be there for Rodgers’ downfield and we could begin to see him air it out more with now both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams at WR. However, overall this does not shape up well for Rodgers to complete many passes in the same way he has all year. 

Suggested Bet:
“U” 21.5 pass completions (-110)

RB Breece Hall

Hall has had a solid year for the Jets early on, but runs into a tough Texans rush defense in this matchup. The Texans defensively have a stuff rate of 48.2%, ranking 7th in the NFL. Teams also have only a 42.7% success rate against the Texans while they are in zone defense (7th fewest in NFL), and a 37.8% success rate against the Texans while they are in man (4th fewest in NFL). They have been susceptible at times to explosive run plays (7.1% explosive run rate that ranks 5th fewest), but this is not an area Hall really excels in. Hall only has a 4.5% explosive run rate, which ranks 36th out of 69 RBs with at least 25 carries. Hall also lost some touches last week to Braelon Allen, who actually had more 1st half carries than Hall did. Hall only had 58.6% of backfield touches last week in comparison to 81.8% the week before. How teams manage RB usage on a short week can vary, but it is also worth noting that Hall only had 54.1% of touches in the Jets earlier preseason game this year. With all this considered, I like Hall as an under spot against the Texans.

Suggested Bet:
“U” 66.5 rush yards (-110)

WR Garrett Wilson

The Jets acquired Davante Adams from the Raiders 2 weeks ago, and while many anticipated this to have a significant role on the target share of Garrett Wilson, this has not really true. Wilson has a 26.5% target share over the last 2 weeks with Adams on the team, just a slight drop from 29.5% over the first 6 weeks of the year. Wilson also has the highest yards per route run on the team at 1.97, and the 13th highest target per route run in the NFL at 0.29, out of 233 WRs with at least 25 routes run. Wilson has seen a boost in deep routes the last 2 weeks, with a 15.4 aDOT the last games with Adams on the field. Although Rodgers does not necessarily matchup well with the Texans defense overall, he has been decent in the intermediate game, and with Wilson having some YAC potential, he should be able to great out a couple of longer receptions in this game. Allen Lazard is also out again in this game, and he was a solid deep threat at times for Rodgers. Look for Wilson to take some of those routes.

Suggested Bet:
“O” 22.5 yard longest reception (-115)

WR Davante Adams

Adams has been used more so in the short and intermediate game with the Jets since coming over from the Raiders. His aDOT the last 2 games is only 7.8, down from 10.5 in weeks 1-5. This presents a tough matchup for Adams if this holds true, as the Texans have sold out defensively to stop receptions in the area of the field that Adams has been living in his first 2 games with the Jets. The Texans have also allowed receivers lined up wide to be targeted 46.9% of the time, which is the most in the league. Adams also lines up wide 65.5% of the time, which is the most of all Jets WRs besides Mike Williams. It is worth noting that Adams is probably still learning this Jets route tree, being that this is only his 3rd game, so it is more than possible we will see him adapt into some more complex aspects of this offense in this game. However, this is a tough ask given the fact that the Texans defense will likely be giving Adams’ routes so much attention.

Suggested Bet:
Pass

TE Tyler Conklin

Conklin has seen a slight decrease in volume since Adams has come over from the Raiders. Before Adams, he ran a route on 75.5% of team dropbacks, but this has since fallen to 69.2% over the last 3 weeks. The Texans have been excellent defensively against the TE position as well, allowing only 4.1 yards per target, which is the lowest in the NFL to the position. Conklin has also seen only a 6.1 aDOT on the year, and as discussed earlier defending short passes is a strength of the Texans defense.

Suggested Bet:
“U” 25.5 receiving yards (-110)

This game could be ugly in the sense that both offenses come into it with many question marks. Both defenses also are pretty stout and should have an answer for the opponent’s offense and what they pride themselves on. The injuries at WR for Houston make a massive difference in this matchup. The Texans really do not have any great option in this one other than to work Joe Mixon often. On the other side, I anticipate seeing a bit of improvement for this Jets offense with Adams as he continues to get settled into his role.

Best Bet Jets ML -126
Lean: Under 42.5 -114

Jets 21 Texans 17