QB Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes faces a challenging matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team with a formidable defense that thrives on creating pressure and turnovers. By Mahomes' lofty standards, his 2023 season has been solid but not elite. He ranks 10th in passing yards (3,348) and 11th in completion rate (66.7%), with a respectable 22 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. However, these numbers reflect a slight decline in efficiency compared to his usual dominance. The Steelers' defense presents both opportunities and risks, making this an intriguing betting angle. Pittsburgh's secondary is middle-of-the-pack in terms of passing yards allowed per game (237, 14th most), but their underlying metrics suggest they are a tougher opponent than that ranking implies. They are holding opposing quarterbacks to a league-best 6th-lowest passer rating (84.0) and an 8th-lowest completion rate (63.5%). Their ability to generate takeaways, averaging over an interception per game, combined with their third-highest turnover-worthy throw rate (4.6%), makes them a dangerous matchup for Mahomes, who has been prone to turnovers this season. The Steelers also excel at pressuring quarterbacks, led by T.J. Watt, who contributes to their 31.4% team pressure rate. This could disrupt Mahomes, particularly given the struggles of the Kansas City offensive line in some high-pressure scenarios. Pittsburgh’s preference for man coverage (9th-highest rate) further complicates the picture. Against man coverage this season, Mahomes has a 60.6% completion rate, 90.5 passer rating, and a low 2.4% turnover-worthy throw rate. While he’s more efficient against zone schemes (71.2% completion rate), his turnover-worthy throw rate increases slightly to 3.0%, indicating vulnerability against both defensive styles in certain situations. Overall, this matchup pits Mahomes' ability to adapt and make plays against one of the league’s most opportunistic and pressure-heavy defenses. Bettors should weigh the likelihood of a high-risk, high-reward performance from Mahomes, as Pittsburgh’s strengths align well with areas where Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense have occasionally faltered this season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions -105

RB Isiah Pacheco
Isiah Pacheco’s matchup against the Steelers presents a challenging scenario for bettors due to Pittsburgh's strong run defense and Kansas City's unpredictable backfield rotation. The Steelers allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (102.6) and the seventh-lowest yards per carry (4.16), excelling at limiting explosive runs (3.8%). While their middle-of-the-road stuff rate (44.5%) suggests some room for consistent gains, their overall run defense makes it difficult for opposing running backs to dominate on the ground. Adding to the complexity, Pittsburgh has been particularly stout against man/gap rushing schemes, ranking 31st in success rate allowed, but they’ve struggled against zone schemes, giving up the fifth-highest success rate. This creates an interesting dynamic for Pacheco, who has a relatively balanced rushing split with 44 zone runs to 30 man/gap runs. If the Chiefs lean into a zone-heavy rushing attack, Pacheco could find some success. However, bettors must consider Kansas City's backfield rotation, which remains a headache. Pacheco’s workloads have been inconsistent since his return and we just watched Hunt dominate the second half snaps and touches last week. This rotational unpredictability, combined with Pittsburgh’s defensive prowess, adds significant risk to betting on Pacheco’s rushing overs. For betting props, Pacheco’s rushing yards are a risky play unless the line is set modestly, given the difficulty of running against Pittsburgh and the Chiefs’ tendency to split touches. A more viable option might be touchdown props, as Pittsburgh has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season, and Pacheco is often utilized in goal-line situations. Ultimately, while there is some potential for success if Kansas City exploits the Steelers’ weakness against zone runs, bettors should tread carefully and weigh the risk of reduced second-half usage.

Suggested Picks
PASS

RB Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt presents an intriguing option in the Chiefs’ backfield against the Steelers, particularly due to his rushing style and scheme usage. Hunt has consistently cut into Isiah Pacheco’s workload this season, often taking over significant touches in the second half of games. What makes Hunt particularly appealing in this matchup is his heavy reliance on zone rushing schemes, with 118 zone runs compared to just 66 in man/gap. This aligns well with a key vulnerability in Pittsburgh’s otherwise strong run defense. The Steelers rank 31st in success rate allowed against man/gap schemes but are far more susceptible to zone runs, surrendering the fifth-highest success rate in that category. This game script could favor Hunt as a runner more than Pacheco, especially if the Chiefs decide to exploit Pittsburgh’s struggles against zone schemes. While Pacheco may get the early work, Hunt’s ability to thrive in the zone scheme and his role as a versatile, situational back could lead to greater efficiency and potentially higher impact later in the game. However, Kansas City’s backfield rotation remains fluid, so Hunt’s volume may still be capped, making him a higher-risk option in betting markets. If the game plan emphasizes zone runs, though, Hunt has the potential to outperform Pacheco on the ground and emerge as the more effective back in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 42.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -110

WR DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins has become a dependable option for Kansas City, providing veteran reliability alongside Travis Kelce, particularly in crucial situations. Hopkins has 4+ receptions in seven of his last eight games and 6+ targets in four of his last five, showcasing his consistent involvement in the offense. Adding to his appeal is his knack for finding the end zone, with four touchdowns over his last eight games, making him a red-zone threat for the Chiefs. This matchup against the Steelers is particularly favorable for Hopkins, as Pittsburgh has allowed the 5th most receiving yards per game (118) to outside wide receivers (71.5%), which aligns with where Hopkins plays most of his snaps. While Hopkins doesn’t play a full complement of snaps, he remains highly productive when on the field, often serving as Patrick Mahomes’ go-to option for key plays and contested catches. Given the Steelers’ vulnerability to outside receivers and Hopkins’ steady role in the offense, betting on his overs in receptions, targets, or receiving yards could provide value. His touchdown-scoring potential also makes him an intriguing option for anytime touchdown bets in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 33.5 Receiving Yards -110

WR Xavier Worthy
Xavier Worthy has emerged as a consistent performer for Kansas City, demonstrating versatility and reliability over his last six games. During this span, he has surpassed 40+ receiving yards and 4+ receptions in every game, while also contributing in the rushing attack. Worthy’s snap share has climbed above 80% in each of the last three weeks, reflecting his growing importance in the Chiefs’ offense. This matchup against the Steelers is favorable for Worthy, as Pittsburgh has struggled against outside wide receivers, where Worthy plays 62.8% of the time. Pittsburgh is allowing the 5th most receiving yards per game to outside receivers and the 10th highest yards per reception (11.25), making this an exploitable spot for Worthy, especially given his ability to create yards after the catch. Additionally, his usage in the screen game and on designed runs adds another dimension to his value. For bettors, the receptions over appears to be the safest option, as Worthy’s consistent involvement in short and intermediate routes aligns well with Kansas City’s offensive tendencies. However, if you’re looking for added upside, considering a rushing plus receiving yards prop could capture his dual-threat usage. Either way, Worthy is well-positioned to produce in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 46.5 Receiving Yards -115

WR Hollywood Brown
Hollywood Brown had an efficient debut for Kansas City, posting 5 receptions for 45 yards on 8 targets despite playing just 27% of snaps. While his production on such a limited snap share was impressive, it’s unsustainable without a significant increase in playing time. Heading into this matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, it’s unlikely that Brown will see a substantial jump in usage, as he’s projected to remain below a 35% snap share. This sets up as a strong spot for potential regression. The Steelers’ defense is a tougher matchup for wide receivers, and both teams favor clock-controlling strategies with the run game and short passing attacks. These factors further limit Brown’s opportunities to replicate his debut production. Pittsburgh’s ability to pressure the quarterback and disrupt timing routes could also reduce the efficiency of Kansas City’s passing game, particularly for a receiver like Brown who relies on speed and deep-route execution. For bettors, the under on Brown’s receiving props appears to be a strong play. With his low snap share, a run-heavy game script, and a tough opponent, Brown is unlikely to see the volume or efficiency needed to exceed modest yardage or reception totals.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions +115

TE Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce remains a cornerstone of the Kansas City offense, even though his production has shown signs of decline compared to his peak performances. While he has looked slower at times and his chemistry with Patrick Mahomes hasn't been as sharp, Kelce’s consistency cannot be overlooked. He’s recorded 5+ catches and 8+ targets in four of his last five games, with 45+ receiving yards in three of those contests. His role as a reliable option in the short and intermediate passing game keeps him heavily involved. The Steelers present a decent matchup for opposing tight ends. Pittsburgh allows the 9th most receptions per game to the position (5.53), the 7th most targets (7.87), and a middle-of-the-pack 16th most receiving yards per game (51.5). This makes for a favorable spot for Kelce to continue his steady involvement, especially in the short passing game where he thrives. Given Pittsburgh’s strong pass rush, Mahomes may lean on Kelce as a quick outlet option to mitigate pressure. Kelce’s floor remains high due to his target volume and role in the Chiefs' offense, but his ceiling may be somewhat capped if the Steelers focus on limiting big plays. For bettors, Kelce is a safe option in props for receptions and targets, with receiving yards also being a reasonable consideration in this solid, albeit not elite, matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -160
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions +130

QB Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson faces a tough but navigable challenge against the Kansas City Chiefs, whose defense has been quietly solid this season. The Chiefs have allowed the 16th fewest passing yards per game (229.6) and completion rate (64.8%), alongside the 11th lowest passer rating against (87.9). While their secondary is disciplined, their pass rush, despite the presence of Chris Jones, ranks just 22nd in pressure rate, and their defense forces turnovers at a modest clip with the 9th lowest turnover-worthy throw (TWT) rate (2.6%). This combination offers Wilson some breathing room but still demands efficiency and discipline. Kansas City’s 7th-highest man coverage rate could be a key factor. Wilson has excelled against man this season, posting a 61.7% completion rate, a stellar 109.1 passer rating, and an extremely low 1.2% TWT rate. His ability to exploit man coverage will be bolstered by the return of top wide receiver George Pickens, who thrives against such schemes. Pickens' big-play ability could help Wilson push the ball downfield, offsetting his tendency to lean on checkdowns (11.6% of dropbacks, 4th highest among QBs with 250+ dropbacks). However, Kansas City’s defense does a solid job limiting those short throws, allowing the 27th highest checkdown rate (7.6%). Against zone, Wilson has been slightly less efficient but still effective, with a 68% completion rate, 95.2 passer rating, and 1.8% TWT rate. Kansas City’s ability to mix coverage schemes effectively could limit Wilson’s opportunities for sustained drives, particularly if the Chiefs can disrupt his rhythm with strategic blitzing or coverage rotations. Overall, Wilson’s success in this matchup will hinge on his ability to capitalize on man coverage opportunities, particularly through Pickens, while avoiding mistakes against a disciplined Chiefs secondary. Bettors should consider his recent efficiency and conservative playstyle, which could limit turnovers but might also cap his ceiling against a solid, if not overwhelming, defense.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -135

RB Najee Harris
Najee Harris faces a tough road in his matchup against Kansas City, making him a risky bet for production this week. Harris has been consistent as a runner between the tackles, gaining 40+ rushing yards in nine of his last ten games. However, the Chiefs' defense presents one of the league’s toughest challenges for running backs. They allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game (91.4) and the fewest specifically to running backs. Kansas City also excels at limiting explosive plays, with the lowest explosive run rate allowed (2.3%), and their sixth-ranked stuff rate (47.2%) further underscores their ability to clog rushing lanes. Compounding Harris' struggles is his declining snap share over the last four games, which has dropped from 52% to a concerning 28%. This suggests that Pittsburgh may be pivoting more toward Jaylen Warren, who has been the more dynamic and explosive option in both the run and pass game. Even with a potentially low line for Harris, the combination of his reduced role, a brutal matchup, and Warren’s emergence makes him a fade candidate in both rushing and receiving props. Betting on Harris to produce against a dominant Chiefs front seems like a low-upside gamble.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Receptions -150

RB Jaylen Warren
Jalen Warren is emerging as the more dynamic and reliable option in the Steelers' backfield, making him an intriguing betting target despite a tough matchup against Kansas City. With Najee Harris’ snap share declining steadily—dropping as low as 28% last week—Warren’s role has increased significantly, with his snap share climbing from 36% to 67%. He has consistently delivered value, clearing his rushing and receiving lines in 8 of his last 9 games. Warren’s versatility, particularly as a receiver, gives him a higher floor than Harris. He has recorded 2+ receptions in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 2.8 catches per game, which aligns well with Pittsburgh’s tendency to utilize running backs in the passing game. While Kansas City’s defense is one of the best in the league, allowing the fewest rushing yards to running backs and excelling at limiting explosive plays, Warren’s dual-threat ability makes him less dependent on ground success alone. His low lines offer value, as he’s cleared them consistently, and his receiving involvement could offset the challenge posed by the Chiefs' stout run defense. With his increased workload and consistent efficiency, Warren looks like a strong candidate to hit his combined rushing and receiving lines, even in a difficult matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions -132

WR George Pickens
George Pickens is set up for a strong return against the Kansas City Chiefs, particularly given his dominance against man coverage and the likelihood of a negative game script forcing Pittsburgh to pass more. Pickens is a proven man-coverage beater, commanding a 37.5% target share, a massive 41.5% team yardage rate, and an explosive 17.1 yards per reception when facing man schemes. With Kansas City running man coverage at the 7th-highest rate in the league, this aligns perfectly with his skill set. His 45.7% first-read rate in these situations further underscores his role as the primary weapon for Russell Wilson in such matchups. Against zone coverage, Pickens is less effective, posting a 21.2% target share, 27.2% yardage rate, and 15.03 yards per reception. However, Kansas City’s defensive structure, combined with Pickens’ ability to win deep, mitigates some of these concerns, especially if Wilson can identify and exploit favorable matchups. Pickens’ health is a minor concern after missing the past few weeks, but two consecutive full practices suggest he’s ready to handle a significant workload. In a game where Pittsburgh is expected to trail, the Steelers may lean on Pickens’ big-play ability to keep them competitive, making him a high-upside option. Overall, this is an excellent spot for Pickens. His ability to stretch the field and consistently win in man coverage should lead to high-value opportunities, particularly if the Chiefs’ secondary focuses too much on limiting shorter, high-percentage throws. Bettors should view him as a strong candidate for a productive outing, particularly in props like receiving yards or explosive plays.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 65.5 Receiving Yards -113

WR Calvin Austin
Calvin Austin III could be a sneaky value play against the Kansas City Chiefs, especially given his increased role and the favorable matchup in the slot. With Ben Skowronek sidelined, Austin’s 59.3% slot snap rate may climb even higher, setting him up to exploit a Kansas City defense that has struggled mightily against slot receivers. The Chiefs have allowed the most slot receiving yards this season (1,523), the highest catch rate to slot receivers (78.3%), and the most end-zone targets to slot players (20), making this an ideal opportunity for Austin to make an impact. Slot corner Christian Roland-Wallace has been a liability in coverage, grading poorly (51.2) and surrendering an 85.7% reception rate. This matchup gives Austin a distinct advantage, as his quickness and ability to separate in short areas can create mismatches, particularly on underneath routes or in the red zone. Kansas City’s emphasis on man coverage could further benefit Austin, as his speed and agility allow him to thrive against single coverage. While Austin’s role has often been secondary in the Steelers' offense, a potential negative game script could increase Pittsburgh’s reliance on the passing game, giving him additional opportunities. Look for Austin to be a key chain-mover and a potential red-zone threat, particularly if defenses shift attention toward George Pickens. For bettors, Austin presents intriguing value in props for receptions, yardage, or even anytime touchdowns, as he could exploit one of Kansas City’s few defensive weaknesses.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 25.5 Receiving Yards -115
40+ Receiving Yards +200

WR Mike Williams
Mike Williams' outlook against the Kansas City Chiefs is limited, especially with George Pickens returning to the lineup. Williams has benefited from Pickens' absence, recording at least three catches in two of the last three games and 15+ receiving yards in each. However, when Pickens has been active, Williams has been a non-factor, going without a reception or target in three consecutive games. Kansas City’s defensive strengths further dampen Williams’ potential. The Chiefs are far more vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the most slot receiving yards (1,523), highest catch rate (78.3%), and most end-zone targets (20) this season. Unfortunately for Williams, he primarily plays on the outside, where the Chiefs’ coverage has been more reliable. Kansas City’s ability to limit boundary receivers, combined with Pittsburgh's likely emphasis on Pickens and Calvin Austin III, makes Williams a long shot to contribute meaningfully. Williams is a risky proposition for any receiving props, particularly with a likely reduction in snap count and targets. I'm looking to fade him here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Receptions -105

TE Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth is primed for a standout performance against the Kansas City Chiefs, thanks to a matchup that plays directly into his strengths. Freiermuth operates out of the slot on over 50% of his snaps, and Kansas City has been the league’s most generous defense to tight ends, allowing the most receiving yards per game (72.7), 3rd most receptions (6.27), and 3rd most targets per game (8.6). These metrics set the stage for Freiermuth to be a focal point in Pittsburgh’s passing attack. Freiermuth has been a consistent contributor in recent weeks, catching 3+ passes in six of his last seven games and exceeding 45 receiving yards in three of his last five. His ability to exploit soft zones and find space in the middle of the field should pay dividends against a Chiefs defense that struggles to contain tight ends. Additionally, Kansas City’s high man-coverage rate could further benefit Freiermuth, as his route-running ability allows him to consistently create separation against single coverage. Given Pittsburgh’s likely need to throw frequently in a potential negative game script, Freiermuth’s volume should be reliable, making him an attractive option for props on receptions and receiving yards. He also has sneaky touchdown potential, as Kansas City’s defense has been susceptible to tight ends in the red zone. Bettors should feel confident targeting Freiermuth in this highly favorable matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 28.5 Receiving Yards -113

Both of these teams continue to find ways to win, but PIT is currently on a 2-game losing streak. I think we see a close one here in a tough home stadium. PIT losing Joey Porter is tough and we are seeing KC’s receiving corps getting healthy. At this point, I have a very hard time leaning of KC to cover any spread, but you can’t deny their ability to win close games. Mahomes looked really good last week and the ankle doesn’t look to be hampering him too much. I think KC finds a way to win a close one on the road, like they have all season.

Best Bet (KC Chiefs ML -150)
Lean (KC Chiefs -2.5 -125)
Chiefs 27, Steelers 24

Anytime TD Picks

Pat Freiermuth +370
MUTHHHH. We hope to hear that on Wednesday. Patty gets the golden matchup for TE’s this season. He also has touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games and 6 touchdowns on the season. Besides Pickens, Muth has been the most targeted pass catcher in the red zone this season and has shown chemistry with Wilson.

Xavier Worthy +250
Worthy continued to be heavily involved even with the return of Brown and Brown should continue to be eased back in. I like the they have used Worthy in several ways - as a rusher, in the short screen game and down the field. That gives us multiple ways to cash this at a solid price.

1st Touchdown: 

George Pickens +950
Leads the team in red zone targets and this a brutal matchup for the PIT backfield. Pickens is elite against man coverage and KC runs man at the 7th highest rate. He can score with a long touchdown or as a big target in the endzone.

Noah Gray +2500
We hit this at similar odds several weeks ago! Good matchup for TE’s and Kelce will, as expected, draw a majority of the mid-field coverage. Gray has been a reliable red zone target this season with 8 targets and 4 touchdowns. Both Hunt and Pacheco gets a tough matchup against this PIT defensive line.

Builder Parlay (-115)
Warren 2+ Receptions
Kelce 4+ Receptions
Mahomes 1+ Pass TD’s

Longshot Parlay #1 (+2144)
KC Chiefs ML
Austin III 40+ Rec Yards
Freiermuth Touchdown

Longshot Parlay #2 (+1565)
Pickens 80+ Rec Yards
Warren 4+ Receptions
Mahomes 25+ Rush Yards

QB Lamar Jackson
These Christmas day games provide an extremely difficult short turnaround for the NFL teams that just played their previous games on Saturday. With that in mind, Lamar Jackson may not mind the turnaround so much, as he was dominant in the Ravens win against the Steelers and maintains a hot hand into Houston. In reality though, he has had the hot hand all year, with his 8.87 YPA being the highest rate in the NFL. The Texans overall have been excellent against opposing passers this year, as they have allowed the 2nd fewest YPA against in the NFL at 6.50. Making this seemingly a strength on strength matchup for this game. However there is one key area I am targeting on Lamar. Jackson throws an incredible deep ball, with his 14.8% deep ball completion % being the 4th best percentage in the league. Meanwhile, the Texans have been beat deep occasionally, with a 14.1% deep ball completion percentage against them. They have also been tested deep at a pretty high rate, with an average 9.0 aDOT against them, which is also the 4th highest in the NFL. The Texans have eliminated the short and intermediate game, but that is not where Lamar has done his nastiest work this year. Look for a deep ball to be completed in this one, and for him to clear a prop he has in 9 out of his last 10 games anyway.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 36.5 Longest Pass Completion (-120)

RB Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry looked to be back last week after one of his best games of the season, and easily his best game since Week 7 in a game in which he amassed 162 yards on the ground. The Texans should be a tough follow up act, however, as this is one of the best defenses in the league. Against the run they have been very good accordingly, averaging 4.31 YPC against, which is the 11th fewest against in the NFL. Henry is no regular back, however, as his 5.88 YPC as a runner is the 5th highest in the NFL among RBs with at least 50 rush attempts. He also boasts a 59.1 success rate. In this matchup, however, on the short rest and as we near playoff time. I am looking for the Ravens to be a bit more cautious with Henry’s usage, especially considering he has more carries than anyone in the league this season, AND when you factor in that the pass is likely a better option for Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense here.

Suggested Play:
‘U’ 18.5 Rush Attempts (-115)

WR Zay Flowers
Flowers missed practice on Monday with a shoulder injury suffered in the game on Saturday vs Steelers, but is expected to play in this one nevertheless. Houston's defense has been stingy in allowing passing yards, ranking sixth in the NFL by surrendering only 200.5 passing yards per game. However, they’ve been more vulnerable in terms of touchdowns, ranking 30th in the league by allowing 1.9 passing touchdowns per game (28 total). Flowers has been targeted 109 times this season, which is 25.5% of his team’s passing attempts, and averages 9.3 yards per target. While he has only scored in three of his 15 games, including one multi-touchdown performance, his ability to find the end zone remains a key factor in his production. He also has seven red zone targets, contributing to his 12.1% red zone target share. While Flowers may face a tough defense, his volume and touchdown potential make him a valuable part of the Ravens' offense this week, so while I don’t like his overall outlook, I do like his chances of coming out on the other end of a long pass from Lamar.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 22.5 Longest Reception (-110)

TE Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews will face the Houston Texans in Week 17, a defense that ranks sixth in the NFL for passing yards allowed, giving up only 200.5 yards per game. However, the Texans' defense has been less effective in preventing touchdowns, ranking 30th in the league by allowing 1.9 passing touchdowns per game. Andrews has been a key target in the Ravens' offense this season, with 59 receptions for 551 yards and nine touchdowns. His 9.3 yards per target is solid, ranking 25th in the NFL, and he has scored in eight of his 15 games this season, including one multi-touchdown performance. He has been targeted 13 times in the red zone, which represents 22.4% of the Ravens' total red zone pass attempts. In his two games against the Texans since 2021, Andrews has averaged 52 receiving yards per game and recorded at least one touchdown. Despite facing a tough pass defense, his consistent involvement in the red zone and ability to score makes him a strong option in this matchup.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+187)

QB CJ Stroud
This bizarre 4 team round robin between last Saturday and on Christmas day does not do any favors to the Texans, who are once again an underdog against one of the AFC’s elite teams in the Ravens, after suffering a close loss to the Chiefs. Stroud has not lived up to the hype of his rookie year, and has been rather middle of the road this year among NFL starters. His 7.04 YPA this year ranks 21st in the NFL out of 43 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks on the year. Stroud however has been much better against man coverage, which he will see a lot of against the Chiefs. The Chiefs line up in man on 34.2% of their defensive snaps, which ranks 7th in the NFL. Stroud ranks 10th in the NFL with a 7.60 YPA against man, despite just a 58.8% completion percentage against man. Joe Mixon has been their workhorse RB this year but has battled some injuries this season. When you factor in the matchup for Stroud, the injury and injury prevention for Mixon, and the fact that the Ravens run defense has forced them to be a pass funnel and is allowing the 2nd most pass yards in total in the league, I like the Texans to want to air the ball out often in this one with Stroud

Suggested Play
‘O’ 33.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

RB Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon faces a tough matchup in Week 17 against the Ravens, who have the best rushing defense in the league. Mixon has accumulated 967 rushing yards on 231 attempts this season, averaging 80.6 yards per game, and has scored 11 rushing touchdowns. As a receiver, he’s added 33 receptions for 291 yards and one touchdown. Historically, Mixon has averaged 58 rushing yards per game in 11 contests against the Ravens since 2021, with the Ravens allowing only one opposing rusher to surpass 100 yards this season. While the Ravens' defense has been tough against the run, allowing just 83.1 rushing yards per game, Mixon has still found success in the red zone, scoring on the ground in eight games this year, and having an inside the five carry rate of 84.3%. He has also accounted for 36.4% of his team’s total offensive touchdowns, making him a key component of their scoring efforts. Despite the challenging matchup and the health issues he faced a week ago in practice, Mixon’s involvement in both the running and passing game, coupled with his red-zone opportunities, means he will still play an important role in the Texans' offense this week.

Suggested Play:
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (-130)

WR Nico Collins
Dell suffered a scary knee injury in Saturday’s loss to the Chiefs. Texans HC DeMeco Ryans told the media Monday that Dell suffered a dislocated knee, a torn ACL, and other damage. The receiver will miss the remainder of the season. This is poor timing, as the Texans just clinched the AFC South title and a playoff berth. The Texans should be highly motivated to beat Baltimore on Christmas day. With Dell missing, Collins has huge upside. In the lone game Collins has played with Dell inactive this season, Collins caught 12 of his 15 targets for 151 yards and a touchdown vs. the Jaguars. The wideout led the Texans with a huge 38.5% target share in this win, including three redzone targets and two targets over 20 yards. Stefon Diggs (knee) played in this game and saw nine targets, but is now also unavailable with a knee injury. With Dell joining Diggs on the sidelines, a target share over 40% a real possibility for Collins this week. The Ravens’ pass defense has improved after a horrible start to their season, but Collins is one of the best receivers in the league.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 5.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Robert Woods
Woods had a season-high six targets in Week 16 after Dell's injury, signaling a potential uptick in involvement. The Ravens' defense has struggled against wide receivers this season, ranking 30th in the league, which could present an opportunity for Woods to contribute. However, despite this favorable matchup, Woods has only 16 catches on the season through 15 games, making him a risky option, especially in a critical game. On the season, Woods also has a 5.3% target share, so not too high. While he could see more targets in the absence of Dell and Diggs, relying on a player with limited production and consistency throughout the season may not be the most advisable choice for those looking to take minimal risks. Another factor here is that the Texans are also likely getting back John Metchie III for this game, which potentially could take targets away from Woods

Suggested Play
None

TE Dalton Schultz
Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz enters the team's Christmas Day matchup against the Baltimore Ravens as a candidate for a big game. With the injuries to wide receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, Schultz stands to be a key part of the Texans' passing attack, likely serving as the second option behind top receiver Nico Collins. Baltimore's defense ranks 22nd against tight ends, presenting a favorable matchup for Schultz. However, his production has largely been driven by touchdowns this season. Schultz has scored just two touchdowns this year, but the targets have been there. Given his inconsistent production in terms of yardage, I would rather target his TDs as I imagine our value with Dell out will increase the most with Schultz in the end zone.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+350)

Both of these teams are in a similar position in that they are both impacted by injuries at skill positions, with Tank Dell out indefinitely (and with Diggs already out), as well Flowers having an uncertain status heading into this game for Baltimore. I think that will lead to some frustration early for both offenses trying to find their rhythm in this game, leading to an under. As for the result, I see an extremely close game, and while I have to favor the Ravens simply based on the season Lamar Jackson has had, I do think the Texans defense will keep this close enough for a cover.

Best Pick: Under 47.5 -120
Lean Texans +3.5 -115
Ravens 23 Texans 20

Anytime TDs

(Texans) Dalton Schultz +380
Schultz has scored just two touchdowns this year, but the targets have been there as of late, going for 5 red zone targets in total in his last 5 games. Given his inconsistent production in terms of yardage, I would rather target his TDs as I imagine our value with Dell out will increase the most with Schultz in the end zone, especially since his two TDs have come in the last 3 games, and now with Dell out.

(Texans) Joe Mixon -130
Mixon has still found success in the red zone, scoring on the ground in eight games this year, and having an inside the five carry rate of 84.3%. He has also accounted for 36.4% of his team’s total offensive touchdowns, making him a key component of their scoring efforts. Despite the challenging matchup and the health issues he faced a week ago in practice, Mixon’s involvement in both the running and passing game, coupled with his red-zone opportunities, means he will still play an important role in the Texans' offense this week.

First TD

(Ravens) Lamar Jackson +785
Lamar Jackson's rushing volume has remained steady throughout the season, with an average of about 8 carries per game over the past month, matching his season average of 8.4. The Texans, despite often playing zone defense, have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. This season, they allowed a combined 155 rushing yards at an average of 9.7 yards per attempt against Anthony Richardson and Josh Allen. Additionally, Patrick Mahomes managed to score a rushing touchdown against them last Saturday.

Parlay 1 +300

Lamar Jackson ‘O’ 35.5 Longest Pass Completion

Zay Flowers ‘O’ 22.5 Longest Pass Completion

Derrick Henry ‘U’ 18.5 Rush Attempts

Parlay 2 +815

CJ Stroud ‘O’ 33.5 Pass Attempts

Dalton Schultz ‘O’ 0.5 TDs

Nico Collins ‘O’ 90.5 Receiving Yards

QB Geno Smith
Geno averages 262.5 passing yards per game, 7.46 YPA and has thrown 17 TDs. He has a 70.1% completion percentage and a QB rating of 90.4. He’ll face a Bears defense that ranks 14^th most passing yards and the 3^rd least passing TDs. They are susceptible to the deep pass, allowing the 3^rd most passing yards of 20+. Geno averages 56 passing yards per game on targets 20+ yards down field, 6^th highest amongst qualifying QBs. He has a 45.6% completion rate on these passes, ranking 4^th best. On the season, the Bears play the 6^th highest rate of single-high (59%) and the 5^th highest rate of zone coverage (76.3%). Against single-high, Geno has negative splits averaging 7.07 YPAA, a 68.1% completion rate and a QB rating of 83.8. Against zone, Geno has positive splits averaging 7.71 YPA, a completion rate of 74.8%, and a QB rating of 94.8.

Suggested Picks
“O” 252.5 Pass Yds (-115)
“U” 1.5 Pass TDs (-140)

RB Zach Charbonnet
Kenneth Walker is sidelined again with an ankle injury, so Charbonnet will get the start. When Walker was sidelined weeks 14 and 15, Charbonnet saw 38 touches for 259 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. On the season, he averages 4.27 YPC and has rushed for 8 TDs. He’s also averaging 19.3 receiving yards per game, which is quite impressive as he’s been the secondary guy behind KWIII for most of the season. He’ll face a Bears defense that allows the 2^nd most rushing yards and 2^nd most rushing TDs to RB. The Bears allow the 7^th most YPC (4.71). Charbonnet has been much more successful in man/gap concepts. He averages 6.19 YPC and a 54.7% success rate, compared to 2.29 YPC and only a 29.2% success rate in zone concepts. The Bears allow 4.82 YPC and a 53.4% success rate against man/gap concepts, compared to 4.74 YPC and a 52.7% success rate against zone concepts. 8 straight starting RBs have ran for 74+ yards against this Bears rush defense. Charbonnet should be the workhorse back with KWIII ruled out.

Suggested Pick
“O” 66.5 Rush Yds (-125)
80+ Rush Yds (+145)
90+ Rush Yds (+225)
100+ Rush Yds (+475)

WR DK Metcalf
After starting the season hot, DK has taken a step back as of late, partially a result of JSN’s emergence. On the season, he averages 69 receiving yards per game, but in the past 6, he only averages 54.8 yard per game. On the season, he averages 1.95 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Chicago allows the 13^th fewest receiving yards and the 7^th fewest receiving TDs to WR. The Bears play the 6^th highest rate of single-high (59%) and the 5^th highest rate of zone coverage (76.3%). Against single-high, DK averages 1.88 YPRR and 25% TPRR, slightly less production on higher volume. Against zone, DK averages 1.98 YPRR on 20% TPRR. DK has lined up out wide on 86.5% of his routes. The Bears allow the 13^th highest target share and the 17^th most receiving yards per game to wide alignment. The Bears are susceptible to deep passes, allowing the 3^rd most passing yards of 20+. DK leads the team by a wide margin in receiving yards on targets 20+ yards down field, with 424 in 13 games. This matchup suits DK’s game over JSN.

Suggested Pick
“O” 59.5 Rec Yds (-115)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
JSN has been extremely consistent as of late, recording 69+ receiving yards in 8 straight games. In those 8 games, he’s averaging 96.3 receiving yards per game, 2.92 YPRR and 26% TPRR. He also leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 31.3%, slightly ahead of Metcalf. Chicago allows the 13^th fewest receiving yards and the 7^th fewest receiving TDs to WR. On the season, the Bears play the 6^th highest rate of single-high (59%) and the 5^th highest rate of zone coverage (76.3%). In the past 8 games against zone, JSN averages 2.27 YPRR and 21% TPRR, negative splits. Against single-high in the past 8 games, JSN averages 2.59 YPRR and 24% TPRR, also negative splits. JSN has lined up in the slot on 84.7% of his routes. The Bears allow the 12^th lowest target share and the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game to the slot. The Bears are susceptible to deep passes, allowing the 3^rd most passing yards of 20+. JSN is 2^nd on the team in receiving yards on targets 20+ yards down field, with 217 in 15 games. This is almost half the yardage of DK, who’s played in 2 less games. This is not a great matchup for JSN.

Suggested Pick
“U” 70.5 Rec Yds (-109)

TE Noah Fant
Fant is averaging 32.8 receiving yards per game, 1.23 YPRR, and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. The Bears allow the 5^th most receiving yards and the 6^th fewest receiving TDs to TE. Fant lines up in the slot on 54.8% of his routes and inline on 27.4%. The Bears allow the 12^th lowest target share and the 10^th fewest receiving yards per game to the slot. To inline alignment, the Bears allow the 2^nd highest target share and the most receiving yards per game. The Bears play the 6^th highest rate of single-high (59%) and the 5^th highest rate of zone coverage (76.3%). Against single-high, Fant averages 1.18 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Against zone coverage, Fant averages 1.45 YPRR on 18% TPRR. Positive splits against zone and slightly negative against single-high. Noah’s lines reflect the bullish matchup, as he’s surpassed 32.5 receiving yards in only 33% of games, and his 3.5 receptions line only 25% of games.

Suggested Pick
“U” 32.5 Rec Yds (-115)

QB Caleb Williams
Caleb is averaging 218.1 passing yards per game, 6.48 YPA, and has thrown 19 TDs. He has an 89.3 QB rating and a completion percentage of 62.2%. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that is middle of the pack in passing yards and passing TDs allowed. They also allow the 6^th fewest rushing yards to QB. The Seahawks run a balanced defense, playing two-high 50.4% of the time and man coverage 30% of the time. Their top 2 coverages in terms of tendencies are Cover 3 (27.4%) and Cover 1 (21.7%). Against these 2 coverages, Caleb averages 6.59 YPA, a 62% completion rate and a QB rating of 81.2. Nothing materially different than his overall statistics. The Seahawks force the 2^nd lowest average depth of the target in the league (7.0). Out of QBs who have 100+ drop backs, Caleb has the 12^th highest aDOT (8.5) and the 7^th highest deep throw rate (13.9%). This defense forces more shorter-range throws, so we’ll see how Caleb adjusts.

Suggested Pick
“U” 218.5 Pass Yds (-117)

RB D’Andre Swift
Swift is averaging 56.1 rushing yards per game on 3.81 YPC. He has not been as effective recently, as he’s only surpassed 40 yards 1 time in the past 5 games. A lot of that may have to do with the Bears consistently playing from behind. He’s also averaging 23.9 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 7^th most rushing yards, 10^th fewest rushing TDs and are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to RB. The Seahawks are worse against man/gap concepts, allowing 5.09 YPC and a 56.6% success rate. That compares to 4.52 YPC and a 47.8% success rate against zone concepts. 55.2% of Swift’s attempts have come in man/gap concepts, where he averages a more efficient 4.11 YPC and a 48.4% success rate. That compares to 3.48 YPC and only a 36.1% success rate in zone concepts. This is a bullish matchup for Swift’s run concepts. With the Seahawks being 4-point favorites and the Bears having no incentive to win, Swift may not see much volume.

Suggested Pick
“U” 61.5 Rush Yds (-115)
“U” 14.5 Rush Att (-102)

WR DJ Moore
Since Shane Waldron’s firing, Moore averages 71.3 receiving yards per game, 1.77 YPRR and 23% TPRR. He is 1^st on the team in 1^st-read rate at 33.6%. Since week 11, DJ has lined up out wide on 69% of his routes. The Seahawks allow the 5^th lowest target share but are middle of the pack in YPRR allowed to wide alignment. The Seahawks run a balanced defense, playing two-high 50.4% of the time and man coverage 30% of the time. Their top 2 coverages in terms of tendencies are Cover 3 (27.4%) and Cover 1 (21.7%). Since week 11, DJ leads the Bears in receiving against these 2 coverages, averaging 2.06 YPRR, 26% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 38.8%. The Seahawks force the 2^nd lowest average depth of the target in the league (7.0). Out of the 3 starting WRs, DJ has the lowest aDOT (7.9), so on the margin, DJ may see a few more targets in this matchup.

Suggested Pick
“O” 5.5 Rec (-113)
“O” 55.5 Rec Yds (-110)

WR Rome Odunze
In the past 6 weeks since Waldron’s firing, Odunze averages 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.41 YPRR and 21% TPRR. He is 3^rd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 21.2%. Since week 11, Odunze has lined up out wide on 60.1% of his routes and in the slot on 39.9% of his routes. The Seahawks allow the 5^th lowest target share but are middle of the pack in YPRR allowed to wide alignment. Against the slot, the Seahawks allow the 6^th highest target share but the 2^nd fewest YPRR. The Seahawks run a balanced defense, playing two-high 50.4% of the time and man coverage 30% of the time. Their top 2 coverages in terms of tendencies are Cover 3 (27.4%) and Cover 1 (21.7%). Since week 11, Odunze is 3^rd on the Bears against these 2 coverages, averaging 1.54 YPRR, 19% TPRR, and a 1^st-read rate of 17.9%. The Seahawks force the 2^nd lowest average depth of the target in the league (7.0). Out of the 3 starting WRs, Odunze has the highest aDOT by a wide margin (15.4) as he’s used as a deep threat. On the margin, this is a bearish matchup in terms of target depth.

Suggested Pick
“U” 43.5 Rec Yds (-110)

WR Keenan Allen
Since Shane Waldron’s firing, Keenan leads the Bears in receiving averaging 75.5 receiving yards per game, 2.08 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate, slightly behind DJ at 31.5%. Since week 11, Keenan has lined up in the slot on 52.8% of his routes and out wide on 47.2% of his routes. Against the slot, the Seahawks allow the 6^th highest target share but the 2^nd fewest YPRR. To wide alignment, the Seahawks allow the 5^th lowest target share but are middle of the pack in YPRR allowed. The Seahawks run a balanced defense, playing two-high 50.4% of the time and man coverage 30% of the time. Their top 2 coverages in terms of tendencies are Cover 3 (27.4%) and Cover 1 (21.7%). Since week 11 against these 2 coverages, Keenan averages 1.73 YPRR, 22% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 31.3%. The Seahawks force the 2^nd lowest average depth of the target in the league (7.0). Out of the 3 starting WRs for the Bears, Keenan is the intermediate guy, with a middling aDOT of 9.7.

Suggested Pick
“O” 5.5 Rec (-130)

TE Cole Kmet
Since Shane Waldron’s firing, Kmet is averaging only 25.8 receiving yards per game, 0.86 YPRR and has been targeted on 11% of his routes. He has lined up in the slot on 70.6% of his routes. Against the slot, the Seahawks allow the 6^th highest target share but the 2^nd fewest YPRR. The Seahawks run a balanced defense, playing two-high 50.4% of the time and man coverage 30% of the time. Their top 2 coverages in terms of tendencies are Cover 3 (27.4%) and Cover 1 (21.7%). Since week 11 against these 2 coverages, Kmet averages 0.93 YPRR, 9% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 7.5%. The Seahawks force the 2^nd lowest average depth of the target in the league (7.0). Out of all the Bears main weapons, Kmet has the lowest aDOT at 7.5, but I wouldn’t say that’s enough to target Kmet in this matchup as he really has not been targeted much at all since the offensive coordinator change.

Suggested Pick
“U” 17.5 Rec Yds (-110)

The Bears have lost 9 straight games after starting a promising 4-2. They have no incentive to win, while the Seahawks must win and get help from the Rams to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Seahawks have been excellent on the road, winning 5 of 6 games. I expect the Seahawks to get out to an early lead and run the football against a bad Bears rush defense. Caleb will be forced to play from behind, and the Seahawks is above average, I expect them to force Caleb to make some mistakes. I’d also lean under as I expect the Seahawks to dominate time of possession and drain the clock.

Best Bet (Seahawks -3.5)
Lean (Under 42.5)
Seahawks 24 Bears 17

Anytime TD Scorer

Best Pick: (SEA) Zach Charbonnet -170
Despite the juiced odds, I think there’s still value here as the Bears are tied for allowing the most rushing TDs per game and the 2^nd most rushing yards per game. Charbonnet has 6 TDs in his last 4 games with an 80%+ snap share, which should be the case today.

Longshot: (CHI) Roschon Johnson +440
Roschon has accounted for 42.9% of the Bears rush attempts inside the 5-yard line, ahead of Swift’s 39.1% share. If the Bears get inside the 5, I love the value for Roschon to score ahead of Swift. He’s been used as the clear short yardage back. The Seahawks are slightly above average in rushing TDs allowed to RB, but I still love the value at +440.

First TD Scorer

Best Pick: (SEA) Zach Charbonnet +350
In Charbonnet’s 4 games this season with an 80%+ snap share, 2 of his 6 TDs came in the 1^st quarter. 4 of the 6 came in the first half. Zach has the best chance to find the end zone tonight, and I expect the Seahawks to jump out to an early lead against this Bears awful rush defense.

Longshot: (SEA) DK Metcalf +900
Despite JSN’s consistent production over the past 8 games, I lean DK over JSN in this matchup, as indicated in my writeups above. The Bears are susceptible to deep passes, allowing the 3^rd most passing yards of 20+. DK leads the Seahawks in receiving yards of 20+ by a wide margin. I could see Geno and DK connect on an explosive TD early in this one.

Parlay #1: (+295)

Zach Charbonnet 60+ Rush Yds

Zach Charbonnet Anytime TD

DK Metcalf 60+ Rec Yds

Parlay #2: (+823)

Zach Charbonnet 80+ Rush Yds

Zach Charbonnet First TD Scorer

Keenan Allen 5+ Rec

Parlay #3: (+1364)

Zach Charbonnet 100+ Rush Yds

Zach Charbonnet 2+ TDs

DJ Moore O 5.5 Rec

QB Justin Herbert
The Chargers needed Herbert to put up a big game last week to keep their playoff seeding alive, and guess what? He did. Herbert went 23/31 for 284 passing yards, two TDs and one interception against a good Broncos defence. This week, he'll face off against an even worse New England Patriots team, who are allowing the ninth fewest pass attempts (30.7) and the eighth fewest passing yards (220.6). New England runs the third most man coverage (40.2%) in the league. The Patriots allow the fifth most passing yards per game against the coverage (81.6) butthat makes sense, due to them running so much man coverage. Herbert, on the other hand, struggles to produce against the coverage, averaging just 46.5 passing yards per game –– fourth fewest in the league. The Patriots are much better at defending the pass than they are on the ground, and with the Chargers getting their number one RB back (JK Dobbins), it might be a slower night for Herbert. With the Chargers being 5.5 road favourites, and them having to play for something while the Patriots are already eliminated, Herbert might not need to use his arm as much in this matchup. In wins this season, Herbert has gone under 32 pass attempts in six of nine games.
Suggested Pick:
Justin Herbert u31.5 Pass Attempts (-125)

RB JK Dobbins
Heeeeeee's baaaaaaack. And man, does this Chargers running game need him. Gus Edwards won't be playing today, but in those four games Dobbins missed, Edwards rushed the ball 38 times and averaged 4.2 yards per carry for 158 rushing yards during that span. However, he's going to be out this game, which opens up the window for Dobbins to see all the ground work.And the Patriots are a great matchup for him to come back to. New England allows the third most rushing yards (114.5) per game to RBs. The Patriots run more zone scheme than man/gap; however, they struggle more against man/gap (averaging 5.02 yards per carry), which is where Dobbins exceeds best, averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry. The returning Dobbins should see plenty of carries against a run defence he should be able to exploit, in his favourable matchup. Dobbins has exceeded 55 rushing yards in three of his last five matchups,and well would have had he not gone hurt in his latest game.
Suggested Pick:
JK Dobbins o54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Ladd McConkey
Ladd returned to the Chargers lineup last week and returned by catching all six of his targets for 87 receiving yards. He was able to utilize the premium slot matchup that he was given. This week, he'll faceoff against this Patriots defence, who is allowing the 16th most receptions (11.5) and 15th most receiving yards (144.9) to WRs in the league this season. McConkey plays most of his time in the slot, playing 71% of his snaps in the slot, he will mostly draw the Jonathan Jones matchup. Jones really hasn't been tested much of late, only seeing 11 targets over the past four weeks; however, he has allowed eight receptions on those 11 targets, and if you watched lastgame where he covered Khalil Shakir, he was targeted heavily downfield, where it was more of a 50/50 ball and allowed a 58.3% passer rating against him due to the depth of target. With the Patriots running the fourth most man coverage, Ladd has the fifth best PFF grade against man coverage in the ENTIRE LEAGUE, not just his own team. He has caught 22 of 28 passes, for 342 receiving yards and two receiving TDs against the coverage. Ladd is also 86 receiving yards away from breaking the Chargers rookie receiving record. He should be heavily targeted,in a good matchup, to help break the franchise record.
Suggested Pick:
Ladd McConkey o73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Quentin Johnston
Mr. Droppy McDroppy Pants is back. Just kidding he's actually been better this season.Although, he did have a drop last game on his six targets. But he did manage to catch the rest of his three targest, but just for 18 receiving yards. But, can you blame him? He was against Pat Surtain for most of the game. Well, Johnston, I've got news for you. It won't get much easier against Christian Gonzalez, who's projected to shadow him on the outside for most of the game. Gonzalez has allowed a receiver to go over 30 receiving yards just once over his past eight games. Johnston is one of the worst receivers against man coverage in the entire league. He has caught only six of his 23 targets for 33 receiving yards against the coverage. Given him being a terrible man coverage WR andhe's going to be shadowed by one of the best man coverage CBs, who's going to shadow him all game. Yeah, not going to be your game, chief.

Suggested Pick
Quentin Johnston u36.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

TE Will Dissly
Dissly (might) be making his return for this game. He was on a good receiving streak before his injury. Outside of his previous two weeks (where one he got injured on the final play of the first half and put up zero receptions the week before) he went over 40 receiving yards in four of six games, topping out over 80 in two of those games. However, it is a decent matchup for Dissly for his return, facing off against this Patriots defence who allows the 13th most receptions (5.3) and the 15th most receiving yards (52.1) to the TE position. Dissly lines up inline 51% of the time. The Patriots are about middle of the pack against inline receivers, allowing the 16th highest catch rate () and the 15th most receiving yards. It will most likely take at least a game for Dissly to get back up to speed, especially in a game that projects to be run and slot heavy.

Suggested Pick
Pass

QB Drake Maye
Was last week not Maye's best game? He went 22/36 for 261 passing yards, two passing TDs and one interception. Maye brought his team to a 14-0 lead against the division-leading Buffalo Bills, 13 minutes into the second quarter. He might not have the same success against this week's opponent; however, as the Chargers run the fourth most zone coverage (76.2%), and Maye averages the sixth-fewest passing yards (139.4) of QBs to have played at least 10 games this season. The Chargers pass defence is middle of the pack statistically, as well, averaging the 12th most pass attempts (33.6) but the 14th fewest passing yards (227.9) per game. Despite them being good at limiting opposing QBs passing yards, they are allowing a lot of pass attempts. In games the Patriots lose –– which Vegas is anticipating with them being 5.5 underdogs –– that Maye has started and finished, he has thrown at least 33 pass attempts in six of eight games this season, averaging 34.6 pass attempts per game.

Suggested Pick:
Drake Maye 32.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson got benched last game after fumbling and losing the football twice. This led to Stevenson playing just 44% of the snaps (down from his 62.7% season average), while Gibson saw a season-high 59% of the snaps (up from his 29.7% average). We might see a little bit more of Gibson working into his workload for this game. Stevenson has been great on the ground yardage-wise this season, averaging 57.1 rushing yards on the ground. However, if he's losing trust from the coaching staff, he might not be a valuable target in this matchup. The Chargers are decent on the ground, running the 13th most rushing yards (99.1) per game. Stevenson runs better against zone scheme, averaging 4.38 yards per carry; however, this matchup might not be great for Stevenson as the Chargers run the third most man/gap concept 53.8% and a fewer yards per carry (4.47) than they do in zone scheme (4.84). Stevenson averages the fourth fewest yards per carry (3.19) against man/gap. If he's inefficient against the scheme the Chargers run the most, and he's losing snaps to Gibson, it doesn't look like the greatest matchup for Stevenson in this game.

Suggested Pick:
Rhamondre Stevenson u45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB Antonio Gibson
What we haven't spoke about yet with this Patriots backfield is the receiving work. Stevenson has been great through the air, but they've mostly used him on the ground, as he's out touched Gibson 205-96 on the ground. But they are using Gibson in the receiving game as well. Stevenson has out-targeted Gibson by a 39-22; however, that number is much closer when you look at the actual passing snaps both RBs have run. Stevenson has played on 353 passing snaps to Gibson's 181. Indicating that only being targeted 17 fewer times than Stevenson, despite playing 172 fewer pass snaps, shows that when Gibson is on the field, they are using him in a more passing-down role. The Chargers get targeted at the highest rate out of the backfield in the NFL, averaging 7.4 targets per game. On those targets, they are allowing the fourth most receptions (5.3) but the 12th fewest receiving yards (31.6) to the position. Just last week when Stevenson was benched, he out-snapped Stevenson 32-18 on passing downs. They should use Gibson more in a receiving role in a favourable matchup. Gibson has caught 2+ balls in two straight games.

Suggested Pick:
Antonio Gibson o1.5 Receptions (-125)

WR Kayshon Boutte
Kayshon Boutte has surprisingly been a revelation for this Patriots team. He has been leading this team in receiving in two of the previous three weeks, averaging 51.7 receiving yards and topping out at 95 receiving yards just last game. The Chargers are allowing the 12th fewest receptions (11.3) but the 12th most receiving yards (150.8) to opposing WRs per game. This indicates they're allowing a high yards per reception per game, which Boutte excels in as he has the yards per reception (13.9) and the highest aDoT (15.0) among Patriots WRs. Boutte lines up on the left side 46% of the time, and will likely draw the Tarheeb Still matchup. Still has struggled at limiting yards against opposing WRs, allow 65+ receiving yards in two of those four games, averaging 51.5 receiving yards per game. The only gripe in Boutte's game is that he's much better against man coverage than zone. And in a zone heavy game, it might be harder for Boutte to formulate the yards against the Chargers. However, this receiving yards line just seems too low, especially if we're thinking Maye is going to need to throw the ball a lot. He has recorded a 20+ reception in six of his previous 10 games.

Suggested Pick:
Kayshon Boutte 20+ Longest Reception (-115)

WR Demario Douglas
Pop Douglas looked to be one of the better WRs for this Patriots team, but that hasn't really come to fruition with Maye under centre. He has lost the WR1 role to Boutte in this offence, only averaging 59.8% of the snaps to Boutte's 78.8%. However, over Boutte's last 10 games, it's upwards of 90%, while Douglas has dipped to under 60%. Douglas is much more of the slot receiver, as he lines up in the slot 78% of the time and will mostly draw the Ja'Sir Taylor matchup. Taylor has not been a mainstay as a starter for this Chargers team, having not seen more than 30 snaps over the past five weeks. This has led to him only being targeted seven times. However, he has allowed a reception on all seven of those targets for 69 (nice) receiving yards over that span. Although, you can't say Douglas isn't reliable when you throw him the ball, as he's caught 30 of his last 38 targets over his past six games. The Chargers are allowing the 15th highest catch rate (72.3%) to slot WRs, but they are allowing the ninth most receiving yards (79.9) to slot WRs. Douglas should be able to have one of his best games in this matchup volume wise, whether it works out for him in the yardage department or not. Douglas has gotten 4+ receptions in six of his previous seven games.

Suggested Pick:
Demario Douglas o3.5 Receptions (+105)

TE Hunter Henry
Now this is probably the #1 receiving option in this Patriots pass game. He leads the team in receptions (66) and receiving yards (674), but is this the prime matchup for him? Maybe volume wise, as the Patriots allow the 14th most targets (7.2), the 12th most receptions (5.3) but the 13th fewest receiving yards (45.7). Henry has seen 7+ targets in three of his previous four games, catching 20 of those targets. Now, he hasn't turned many of those into receiving yards, averaging just 45.8 yards per game, which is heavily carried by a 75-yard performance. Like Douglas, Henry lines up in the slot 51.1% of the time and should see similar volume success against this Chargers defence. Henry has 4+ receptions in five straight and eight of his last nine games.

Suggested Pick:
Hunter Henry 4+ Receptions (-230) parlay piece

Like I mentioned above, this is an easy game to try and predict. The Chargers are fighting for a playoff spot, which they can clinch with a win, while the Patriots are going for a higher draft pick for next season. Also, the Patriots even staying competitive last week against the Bills, somewhat lines them up for an upset. Not to mention, the Chargers are getting the weapon they want to use the most in JK Dobbins, being such a run-heavy team, in a game Harbaugh will want to utilize the run.

Best Bet - Chargers -5.5
Lean - Under 42.5
Chargers 27 - Patriots 10

Anytime TD 

JK Dobbins TD (-120)
This Patriots run defence is bad. And they should get exposed in this matchup. Typically, I would take Gus Edwards in this matchup because he is the bruiser up the middle you want to bet on to get those goal line carries if Dobbins can't cash in. However, Dobbins should get all those opportunities in this matchup, with the Patriots allowing 0.9 rushing TDs to RBs per game.

Antonio Gibson TD (+275)
We're just going with a bit of a bigger number here, given the deployment of each player from the previous week. Gibson has seen five red zone rush attempts over the previous three weeks while the Chargers are nearly allowing more TDs through the air to RBs than on the ground, which is where Gibson skill set sets in.

First TD

JK Dobbins First TD (+450)
The Chargers have scored the first TD in six of 15 games this season: Two for Johnston, one to Scott, Edwards, Dissly and Edwards. Notice how none of them have been Dobbins yet. It just seems like it's time to shine early.

Kayshon Boutte First TD (+1600)
Surprisingly, the Patriots have scored the first TD in 9 of 15 games this season: Three for Stevenson, two for Polk, and Maye, Bourne, Thornton and Boutte. The Chargers allow 1.13 receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs this season.

Parlay 1: +190 odds on bet365

Los Angeles Chargers ML

JK Dobbins 50+ Rushing Yards

Ladd McConkey 60+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 2: +145 odds on bet365

Game Total u50.5 Points

Drake Maye 30+ Pass Attempts

Hunter Henry 4+ Receptions

Parlay 3: +650 odds on bet365

Antonio Gibson o1.5 Receptions

Ladd McConkey 80+ Receiving Yards

Quentin Johnston u36.5 Receiving Yards

QB Bo Nix
Bo Nix had a mixed performance in Week 16, with a strong start but a more quiet second half. In the first half, he completed 15 of 21 passes (71.4%) for 155 yards (7.4 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. However, in the second half, his production dipped, completing 14 of 19 passes (73.7%) but for just 108 yards (5.7 yards per attempt). Nix’s passing game in Week 16 heavily relied on short throws, averaging just 2.9 air yards per attempt, the lowest for any quarterback in a single game this season. A significant 87.8% of his passing yards came after the catch. For the season, 28% of Nix's passes have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, a rate surpassed only by Tua Tagovailoa (31.1%) and Patrick Mahomes (30.9%). Facing the Bengals this week, Nix could employ a similar short-passing strategy. Cincinnati ranks 25th in yards allowed after the catch per completion (5.6), which aligns well with Nix’s approach. The Bengals have also struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, allowing the most rushing yards to the position this season (31.9 per game). Recent examples include Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert, all of whom ran for at least 30 yards against them. Nix has been more active as a runner in the past two weeks, adding 23 and 25 rushing yards, and this element of his game could be critical in creating opportunities against a Bengals defense that ranks 24th in pressure rate (31.9%). When under pressure, Nix has struggled, completing just 46% of his passes (23rd) for 5.2 yards per attempt (28th). However, Cincinnati’s variance in defensive performance provides room for Nix to capitalize on favorable situations, particularly in a potentially high-scoring environment.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 20.5 Rush Yards (-110)

RB Audric Estime/RB Javonte Williams/RB Jaleel McLaughlin
Denver went with a RB by committee in Week 16. Jaleel McLaughlin missed the game due to a quad injury, leaving the backfield duties to Audric Estime, Javonte Williams, and Blake Watson. Estime started the game, playing 20 snaps and taking 9 touches for 48 yards, including a touchdown. All of Estime's touches came on rushing attempts. Williams led the backfield in snaps, playing 32 and handling 11 touches for 53 yards. However, he only had 4 rushing attempts, the same number as Watson, who played 16 snaps and recorded five touches for 23 yards. McLaughlin’s status will be critical to monitor heading into Sunday, as his availability could further complicate things. The team has leaned on Williams for pass protection duties, earning him the most snaps, but he hasn’t been trusted as a runner. Any of these backs, including McLaughlin if he returns, could see goal-line opportunities on any given week. Despite the uncertainty, the matchup against Cincinnati is solid for the Denver run game. The Bengals rank 29th in the league in success rate against running back runs (56.4%), offering some hope for Denver's rushing attack. However, as a road underdog, the team's game script could add additional challenges.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton caught 5 of 6 targets for 50 yards in Week 16. After a streak of receiving 25% or more of the team’s targets in seven consecutive games, his share dropped to 15.4% last week. Despite the reduced volume, Sutton's production showcased his increased reliability this season, as he maintained a solid performance. Sutton has recently settled into a more floor-based role, consistently producing but finishing higher than WR24 only once in his past five games. The Bengals' pass defense metrics are influenced by a few standout performances against them, making their secondary better in bulk than it might seem. Cincinnati ranks 13th in points allowed to WR1 targets (13.7 per game) and has been particularly effective against   outside receivers, allowing just a 58.4% completion rate (5th) and 7.9 yards per target (10th). With Sutton playing 84% of his snaps outside, he may face a challenge in gaining big yardage but remains a viable option due to his role in Denver's passing attack. Notably, Sutton has been heavily utilized in scoring situations, commanding 43.3% of Denver’s targets on throws into the end zone, ranking fifth among wide receivers in this category.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+170)

TE Lucas Krull / TE Adam Trautman
Adam Trautman has maintained his role as Denver's primary tight end this season, though his usage has leaned more toward blocking assignments than receiving work. In Week 16, Trautman played the majority of snaps among the tight end group, but his involvement in the passing game has been minimal. When targeted, Trautman has shown reliable hands, though his average depth of target has remained shallow. He has been used sparingly in scoring opportunities, with the Broncos relying on other playmakers in the red zone. His primary contributions come in run blocking and pass protection, which limits his offensive production. Both Krull and Trautman remain secondary options in Denver's offense, and their opportunities will depend heavily on game flow and matchup-specific schemes.

Suggested Play
Pass

QB Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow enters this week's matchup against Denver in remarkable form, having thrown for at least 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in seven consecutive games, the longest streak in NFL history. This week, Burrow faces a tough Broncos defense. However, even elite defenses have struggled to completely contain top quarterbacks this season. Denver allowed Justin Herbert to post 9.2 yards per attempt in Week 16, Jameis Winston to rack up 497 passing yards in Week 13, and Lamar Jackson to throw for 3 touchdowns with 14.7 yards per attempt in Week 9. Denver's defensive scheme could provide a challenge for Burrow. The Broncos use man coverage on 31.6% of their defensive snaps (8th most in the league) and blitz at a high rate of 34.2% (3rd in the NFL). While Burrow has excelled against the blitz with a 9.8% touchdown rate (fourth), his completion rate (59.8%, 22nd) and yards per attempt (7.6, 18th) in these situations are less dominant compared to when he's not blitzed. Against standard coverage, Burrow completes 71% of his passes (7th) for 7.6 yards per attempt (10th) and a 6.4% touchdown rate (2nd). The Bengals often face man coverage 30% of Burrow's dropbacks, ranking ninth in the league. Against man coverage, Burrow has been effective at generating touchdowns, with a 10.8% touchdown rate (sixth). However, his completion rate drops to 59.9% (10th), and his yards per attempt are just 6.7 (22nd). Against zone coverage, he’s far more efficient, completing 73.8% of his passes (4th) for 8.4 yards per attempt (5th). With Denver reducing their blitz rate in recent weeks and relying more on zone coverage, i think we can expect Burrow to find his many options underneath often.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 25.5 Completions (+100)

RB Chase Brown
Chase Brown delivered a solid performance Sunday, turning 21 touches into 109 total yards. Although he failed to score a touchdown for the first time since Week 11, his workload and production remain consistent. Brown once again handled 100% of the backfield touches and has taken 165 of 170 backfield opportunities since Zack Moss’s injury. Since becoming the starter, Brown has averaged 119.9 yards from scrimmage per game, trailing only Saquon Barkley (155.3) in that category. Denver presents a challenging matchup for running backs, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry (3rd best in the NFL) and boasting a league-high 67.2% success rate against rushing attempts. However, they’ve shown vulnerability in the red zone, as Gus Edwards scored twice against them last week, and Jonathan Taylor rushed for 107 yards in Week 15. The Broncos’ biggest weakness lies in defending running backs in the passing game. They rank 30th in the league, allowing 11.6 receiving yards per game to backfields. Brown has excelled receiving, ranking 2nd among running backs in receptions (4.9 per game) and third in receiving yards (39.9 per game) since taking over as the starter.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (-135)

WR Ja’Marr Chase
Chase spends 31.8% of his snaps in the slot, which helps him avoid matchups with Denver’s top cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. Denver has allowed notable performances to opposing receivers even with Surtain in the secondary. Zay Flowers (5 catches, 127 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Jerry Jeudy (9 catches, 235 yards, 1 touchdown) both excelled, doing much of their damage away from Surtain. The Broncos have been vulnerable to big plays, allowing 9.3 yards per target to lead receivers (26th in the NFL). Denver’s defense has limited touchdown production from wideouts, allowing just eight receiving touchdowns to the position this season—the lowest rate in the league at 2.7%. Despite their ability to keep wideouts out of the end zone, Denver has surrendered significant yardage in recent weeks. Performances by Ladd McConkey (6 catches, 87 yards), Elijah Moore (8 catches, 111 yards), and Jakobi Meyers (10 catches, 121 yards) demonstrate that top-tier receivers like Chase can still exploit their secondary, even without scoring touchdowns. Chase's ability to generate splash plays and his chemistry with Joe Burrow make him a key factor in this matchup.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 26.5 Longest Pass Completion (-109)

WR Tee Higgins
This season, Higgins is averaging a career-high 9.2 targets per game and earning targets on 25.6% of his routes, both career bests.  Against Denver, Higgins is likely to face Patrick Surtain II more often than Ja'Marr Chase, as Higgins spends 82% of his snaps on the outside compared to Chase's 66.4%. While Denver has recently reduced their use of man coverage, Surtain remains their top cornerback and is expected to shadow Higgins in many situations. Higgins’ ability to win contested catches will be pivotal against a Broncos secondary that has limited touchdowns but remains susceptible to giving up significant yardage to receivers. His role as an outside receiver and his knack for finding the end zone make him a key player to watch in this matchup. The issue is he is listed as questionable in this game, so we don’t really have a good read on his health.

Suggested Play
Pass

TE Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki has been targeted on 12% of his routes when Tee Higgins is on the field, averaging 1.01 yards per route in those situations. While he has shown flashes of his athleticism, this production reflects a limited role in the passing game. The Broncos present a tough matchup for tight ends, allowing a league-low 5.6 yards per target to the position this season. No Denver tight end has recorded more than four receptions in a game this year, and only one has managed to score a touchdown. Gesicki’s opportunities may be limited in this game, particularly given the strength of the Denver defense against his position group. While his size and red-zone ability make him a potential scoring threat, this matchup suggests it may be a challenging day for Gesicki to significantly impact the game, but I do think he has a good chance to find the end zone.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+375)

Do or die game for both teams. The Broncos are coming off a performance in which they would love to have back vs the Chargers last time out, falling asleep in a key divisional game. Meanwhile the Bengals have won three straight games, but all against lesser competition in all reality, with the Broncos presenting a more significant challenge than the Cowboys, Titans, and Browns. In a matchup of Burrow vs Nix, I lean towards the surging home team still, and the QB who has plenty of experience winning with his back against the ball, especially against a Bengals defense that has forced an incredible 9 turnovers over the last 2 games.

Best Bet: Bengals -2.5 -140
Lean: Under 49.5 -110
Bengals 27 Broncos 20

Anytime Touchdown:

(Broncos) Cortland Sutton +170
With Sutton playing 84% of his snaps outside, he may face a challenge in gaining big yardage but remains a viable option due to his role in Denver's passing attack. Notably, Sutton has been heavily utilized in scoring situations, commanding 43.3% of Denver’s targets on throws into the end zone, ranking fifth among wide receivers in this category.

(Bengals) Chase Brown -135
Denver presents a challenging matchup for running backs, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry (3rd best in the NFL) and boasting a league-high 67.2% success rate against rushing attempts. However, they’ve shown vulnerability in the red zone, as Gus Edwards scored twice against them last week, and Jonathan Taylor rushed for 107 yards in Week 15. Brown’s success as a receiver also provides him with another mode of scoring.

First Touchdown Picks

(Broncos) Audric Estime +1200
Estime found the end zone first in last week's loss to the Chargers, and there's no reason he can't replicate that performance this week. The Broncos' backfield is crowded with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin also sharing carries. However, Estime stands out as the biggest option among the group and is a reliable red zone threat, making him a solid choice to score first against the Bengals.

Parlay 1 +365

Joe Burrow ‘O’ 25.5 Completions

Chase Brown ‘O’ 26.5 Receiving Yards

Chase Brown ATD

Parlay 2 +3075

Audric Estime First TD

Bo Nix ‘O’ 20.5 Rush Yards

Ja’Marr Chase ‘O’ 26.5 Long Reception

QB Kyler Murray
After four straight games 250+ passing yards, Murray has cooled down with two matches sub 225. And that poor play has reflected on their 1-4 record over their previous five games, including losing to the worst team in the NFL last year, the Carolina Panthers. This week, he and the Cardinals will have an opportunity to play spoiler against their division rival LA Rams. The Rams are allowing the 13th most passing yards (237.1) but on the 10th-fewest completions (20.1) and the 12th-fewest pass attempts (31.1). The Rams run the eighth most zone coverage (73.9%) in the league. Kyler sits around middle of the pack in terms of completion percentage (74.3%) and yards per game (160). But where Kyler could see some success is in the run game. The Rams are middle of the pack in rushing yards to QBs per game (20.8). Murray has the fifth most scrambles and rushing yards in zone coverage, for any QBs in the NFL. Against the Rams this season, Murray had 59 rushing yards on just five rush attempts and had 63 last week against the Carolina Panthers. Expect Kyler to try and burn the Rams with his legs and play potentially ruin the Rams shot at the playoffs.

Suggested Pick:
Kyler Murray o27.5 Rush Yards (-110)

RB James Conner
James Conner is set to play despite holding an injury designation coming into this one. He was well on his way to a wicked game last week, rushing for 117 rushing yards on 15 rush attempts in the first half. This week, he'll face another weak run defence in the Rams, who're allowing the 10th most rushing yards (102.9) to opposing RBs per game. The Rams run a bit more zone concept than man/gap, but allow a very marginal difference in terms of yards per carry, with just a 0.12 difference in the coverages. However, Conner has surprisingly seen 70.3% of his rushes against man/gap and has a wicked 4.95. 70.3% against man/gap is the highest by over 10% of the next starting RB. Conner also leads the league in missed tackles forced this season with 68. Which is great for this matchup, as the Rams are allowing the third most missed tackles (78) this season. Conner's a tough player, and if he's out there and ready to play, there's no reason not to put faith in him. Conner should be able to continue to break tackles against this Rams team who are prone to allowing the big runs. Conner has recorded a 14+ longest rush attempt in seven of his last nine games, with back to back games with a 40+ yard rush.

Suggested Pick:
James Conner o13.5 Longest Rush (-120)

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is starting to look like the fourth or fifth best WR in his own class. He has not been able to fully put his entire bag of tools to work just yet, He's been seeing steady targets over the past four games, seeing at least eight in three of those games, but has turned that into a disappointing 180 receiving yards during that span. The Rams are great against opposing WRs, allowing the second fewest receptions (10.2) per game, but the 16th most receiving yards (144.4). Which would indicate that they are allowing a high yards per reception. That bodes true as they allow the fourth highest yards per reception (11.4) and the sixth highest yards per target (8.24). Harrison Jr. is this Cardinals teams' deep threat, as he has the highest yards per reception (14.2) and aDoT (14.3) of the WR room. However, Harrison Jr. is much better against man coverage. He sees his target share, catch rate, and yards per route run dip in zone compared to man. One of the things that rises is actually his yards per reception. Which is perfect for this matchup against the Rams. He has only caught a 22+ yard pass in five of 15 games this season, including a 60+ yard catch in Week 2 against the Rams already this season.

Suggested Pick:
Marvin Harrison Jr. o21.5 Longest Reception (-115)

WR Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson hasn't been much of an option in this offence. He sees decent targets, but he's very much the fourth option behind McBride, Harrison Jr., and even Conner. However, he has been decent yardage wise, going for over 50 yards in three of his previous five games, averaging 43.8 per game. However, struggles against zone coverage, seeing target share, catch rate, yards per receptions and aDoT dip against the coverage. Wilson lines up on the right 39% of the time and will likely draw the Cobie Durant matchup. Durant really does not allow a lot of receiving yards to his opposition, as despite seeing 16 targets through three games, he's allowed no more than 27 receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:
Michael Wilson u29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Trey McBride
Is this finally the week where McBride finds the end zone? Let's hope so, cause it's just getting sad at this point. McBride should do great in this matchup as he is the single best PFF graded receiver for the Cardinals, catching 51 of 59 targets for 596 receiving yards. He sees his target share, catch rate, yards per reception, yards after catch per reception and yards per route run increase against the coverage. He should be peppered with targets in hopes to get McBride his TD, and should easily be able to exploit this LA Rams defence, who is allowing the ninth most receptions (5.5) and the eighth most receiving yards (57.2) per game to opposing TEs.

Suggested Pick:
Trey McBride 60+ Receiving Yards (-130)

QB Matthew Stafford
I don't know about you guys but I am personally hurt by the efforts of Matthew Stafford last week, as he only put up nine fantasy points for my team and I lost. But, I guess I can get over it and break this matchup down for him. The Cardinals allow the 11th fewest pass attempts (30.9) and the 12th fewest passing yards (227.7) but the 15th-most completions (21.6). This indicates that they're allowing a high completion percentage on the season. Which bodes true when you look at the numbers as they allow the highest completion percentage (69.8%) on the season. In an earlier meeting this season between the two teams came all the back in Week 2, where Stafford went 19/27 for 216 passing yards with zero TDs or INTs. Now, to be fair, that was a game with no Puka Nacua and a 41-10 blowout. However, this is a different game now, with a lot more on the line. The Cardinals run the 13th most zone coverage (70.9%). Stafford has been accurate against zone coverage, completing the fifth highest percentage of his passes (74.8%) and has 70% over his previous three games. I bet we see this be a much closer game than we saw earlier in the season, Stafford should have a bounceback game and complete a high percentage of his passes.

Suggested Pick:
Matthew Stafford o21.5+ Pass Completions (-115)

RB Kyren Williams
Kyren has been a workhouse this season, logging the third most rush attempts (303) on the season but only two behind Henry for second with a game in hand. Williams will face off against the Cardinals team who he played in Week 2, where he really struggled, rushing 12 times for just 25 yards, but managed to find the end zone. The Cardinals are a much worse run defence than that as they allow the seventh most rushing yards (108.7) per game. Kyren is able to do damage against either rush coverages, as he averages 4.05 yards per carry against zone and 4.15 against man/gap. The Rams run more zone scheme, but struggle heavily against man/gap, as they allow 5.16 yards per carry against the coverage –– third most in the league. The Rams continue to feed him heavy volume, which leads to his high rushing yards line. He has logged 20+ rush attempts in three straight, averaging 27 per game.

Suggested Pick:
Kyren Williams 20+ Rush Attempts (-165)

WR Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua has quickly overtaken Cooper Kupp as the most reliable option in this Rams offence. Since Week 10, Nacua has at least eight targets in every game, topping out with 13+ targets in three of those six games. Nacua is honestly scheme proof; he has the second highest PFF grade against man coverage, and against zone coverage. There's really not a lot you can do to stop him. However, his catch rate does jump from 66.7% against man to 80% against zone and has a whopping 34.7% target share against zone coverage. The Cardinals allow the 15th-fewest receiving yards (144.1) but the 12th most receptions (11.8) to WRs per game. Which plays into how the Cardinals are allowing a high completion percentage to QBs. While in zone coverage, the Cardinals are allowing the single highest catch rate (81.1%) in the entire league. Nacua lines up on the right 46% of the time and will likely draw the Sean Murphy-Bunting matchup. Murphy-Bunting has been great at limiting yards, having only allowed 30+ receiving yards in one of his previous six games. However, he is targeted at a fairly high rate, 19 times in the previous four games and allows a 67% catch rate. When a player is seeing volume like this, you've got to just ride the wave, especially in a matchup against a defence allowing the highest catch rate in the NFL.

Suggested Pick:
Puka Nacua o6.5 Receptions (-150)

WR Cooper Kupp
Kupp has great matches down the stretch here and just hasn't been able to take advantage of his opportunity. In Week 2 against the Cardinals, Kupp caught four of his six targets for 37 receiving yards. And it might be a bit of the same as it has been the previous two weeks, as only been targeted three times for 33 yards during that span. Kupp lines up in the slot 60% of the time and will likely draw the Garrett Williams matchup. Williams hasn't started much in the league this season, so it's hard to predict how this matchup will go. Kupp does perform better against zone seeing his catch rate, target share, yards per route run and aDoT in zone coverage. However, it just feels like the pendulum is starting to swing in the opposite direction of Kupp, which might lead to another tough game for Kupp. We've established that the Cardinals allow the highest catch rate to opposing WRs, however, against slot receivers they drop to sixth. So it might be a tougher matchup for Kupp than we think.

Suggested Pick:
Cooper Kupp u5.5 Receptions (-150)

TE Tyler Higbee
There isn't much to go on about with Higbee. He made his long-awaited season debut last week, and was rewarded with connecting with Stafford for a TD. However, he only played six snaps, saw just one target and that was his TD. His workload should increase, but it won't be an easy matchup for him, as the Cardinals allow the 12th fewest receptions (4.8) and the 11th fewest receiving yards (44.4) per game to the position. We hope he has a speedy transition back to NFL football, but we want to see it before we recommend betting him in any way.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

Anytime TD Picks

First Touchdown Picks

QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is averaging 234.1 passing yards per game, 6.62 YPA, and has thrown 24 TDs. He has a QB rating of 90.8 with a completion percentage of 62.8%. He’ll face a Bills defense allowing the 7^th most passing yards and 7^th most passing TDs. They are however stingy against the deep ball, allowing the 3^rd least passing yards of 20+. Only 8.3% of attempts against them are 20+ yards down field, 2^nd lowest. Rodgers ranks 27^th amongst qualifying QBs in deep throw rate (9.8%), he does not throw deep like he used to when he was younger.  The Bills play two-high at the 4^th highest rate in the league (54.1%) and zone coverage at the 10^th highest rate (72.5%). Rodgers splits don’t change much against two-high, averaging 6.61 YPA, a QB rating of 94.6 and a completion rate of 62.1%. Against zone coverage, Rodgers sees some nice boosts in YPA and completion rate at 7.18 and 68.5% respectively. His QB rating remains consistent at 92.5.

Suggested Pick
“O” 215.5 Pass Yds (-115)
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (+170)
225+ Pass Yds (+115)
250+ Pass Yds (+225)

RB Breece Hall
Breece is averaging 55.3 rushing yards per game on 4.14 YPC. He’s also averaging 32.9 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Bills defense that is middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed to RB and the 9^th most YPC (4.62). The Bills do, however, allow the most receiving yards per game to the position. Their 19.9% target share allowed to the backfield is the highest in the league. The Bills play zone coverage at the 10^th highest rate (72.5%). Breece sees a boost from 1.52 YPRR overall to 2.02 YPRR against zone coverage. With the Bills 9.5-point favorites, I wouldn’t be surprised if Breece sees a ton of action in the passing game. His rushing line is low, but for good reason as they are expecting a trailing game script. He had 6 targets, caught 5 receptions and had 56 receiving yards earlier in the season when these 2 teams matched up.

Suggested Pick
“O” 21.5 Rec Yds (-115)
25+ Rec Yds (+115)
40+ Rec Yds (+310)
50+ Rec Yds (+550)

WR DaVante Adams
As a member of the Jets, DaVante is averaging 79.9 receiving yards per game, 2.30 YPRR and has been targeted on 28% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 34.9%. He has split his time out wide and in the slot, at a 48.9% and 50.8% route rate share respectively. The Bills allow the lowest target share to wide alignment (34%) but the 3^rd highest to the slot (35.9%). They are around the middle of the pack overall in receiving yards allowed to the position. The Bills defensive philosophy is to limit the deep ball as only 8.3% of attempts against them are 20+ yards down field, 2^nd lowest. They allow a ton of underneath receptions as a result, as they force the 3^rd lowest aDOT in the league. DaVante has the lowest aDOT out of the starting receivers at 8.6. The Bills play two-high at the 4^th highest rate in the league (54.1%) and zone coverage at the 10^th highest rate (72.5%). Against two-high, DaVante see slightly negative splits, averaging 2.22 YPRR and 27% TPRR. Against zone, Adams sees slight dips averaging 2.23 YPRR and 24% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“O” 5.5 Rec (-135)

WR Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson is averaging 65.8 receiving yards per game, 1.82 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 32%, slightly behind DaVante. He has lined up out wide on 65.2% of his routes and in the slot on 34.1%. The Bills allow the lowest target share to wide alignment (34%) but the 3^rd highest to the slot (35.9%). They are around the middle of the pack overall in receiving yards allowed to the position. The Bills defensive philosophy is to limit the deep ball as only 8.3% of attempts against them are 20+ yards down field, 2^nd lowest. They allow a ton of underneath receptions as a result, as they force the 3^rd lowest aDOT in the league. Garrett has an aDOT of 9.6, which is slightly higher than Davante’s 8.6. The Bills play two-high at the 4^th highest rate in the league (54.1%) and zone coverage at the 10^th highest rate (72.5%). Against two-high, Wilson sees slightly negative splits, averaging 1.64 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Against zone, Wilson sees similar production to his overall statistics, averaging 1.82 YPRR and 26% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“O” 4.5 Rec (-145)

TE Tyler Conklin
Conklin averages 26.9 receiving yards per game, 0.95 YPR and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. The Bills are middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to TE. Conklin lines up in the slot on 49.1% of his routes and inline on 39.5%. The Bills allow the 3^rd highest target share to the slot (35.9%) and the 8^th lowest to inline (10.2%). The Bills defensive philosophy is to limit the deep ball as only 8.3% of attempts against them are 20+ yards down field, 2^nd lowest. They allow a ton of underneath receptions as a result, as they force the 3^rd lowest aDOT in the league. Conklin has the lowest aDOT out of the starting skill players at 5.8. The Bills play two-high at the 4^th highest rate in the league (54.1%) and zone coverage at the 10^th highest rate (72.5%). Against two-high, Conklin sees boosts to 1.09 YPRR and 15% TPRR. Against zone coverage, Conklin sees boosts to 1.48 YPRR and 19% TPRR. I’m not sure that’s enough to justify considering betting on his overs as Conklin does not see much volume.

Suggested Pick
Pass

QB Josh Allen
The current favorite for MVP averages 236.6 passing yards per game, 7.78 YPA and has thrown 26 TDs. He has a QB rating of 101.2 and a completion percentage of 63.8%. He’ll face a Jets defense allowing the 5^th fewest passing yards and the fewest passing TDs on the season. They do however allow the 2^nd most rushing TDs to opposing QBs. The Jets have the 2^nd highest pressure rate over expected. When pressured, Allen sees a dip to 7.30 YPA, completion rate of 42.5% and a QB rating of 84.9. The Jets play single-high at the 8^th highest rate (56.8%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (34.5%). Against single-high, Josh averages 7.98 YPA, 62.2% completion rate and a QB rating of 96.8. Against man, Allen averages 7.45 YPA, a 55.6% completion rate and a 110.8 QB rating. Both coverages result in mixed splits, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. When these 2 teams matched up earlier this season, Josh threw for 215 yards, 2 passing TDs, 18 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD.

Suggested Pick
Anytime TD (-105)

RB James Cook
James Cook is averaging 66.3 rushing yards per game, 5.10 YPC and 14 rushing TDs. He’ll face a Jets defense that is middle of the pack in rushing yards and rushing TDs allowed to RB. On a per carry basis, the Jets allow only 4.09 YPC, which is 4^th lowest in the league. Success in the running game against the Jets is mainly due to volume, as they have allowed the 3^rd most rush attempts. With the Bills 9.5-point favorites, we’d expect another game of heavy rush volume. The one concern here is that Cook’s snap share has not surpassed 50%+ in 5 straight games. It feels like they are keeping him fresh for the playoffs and mixing in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson to a larger extent. In terms of run concepts, Cook has run zone concept 53.8% of the time. He averages 4.79 YPC and has a 51% success rate. That compares to 5.46 YPC and a 53.6% success rate in man/gap concepts, which has accounted for 46.2% of his runs. The Jets allow the least YPC to zone concept (3.43) and the 9^th fewest YPC to man/gap concepts (4.48). I’d rather bet Cook for an anytime TD rather than guess what his snap count will look like in a game expected to be a blowout. He has still gotten 7 redzone carries to Ray Davis 0 the past 2 weeks.

Suggested Pick
Anytime TD (-135)

WR Khalil Shakir
Shakir leads the Bills in receiving, averaging 56.9 receiving yards per game, 2.32 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. He’ll face a Jets defense that allows the 7^th least receiving yards and 2^nd fewest receiving TDs to WR. Shakir has operated primarily out of the slot, with 73.8% of his routes coming from this alignment. The Jets allow the 10^th fewest YPRR to the slot (1.79). The Jets have the 2^nd highest pressure rate over expected. Shakir is targeted on 15% of his routes and averages 1.33 YPRR when Josh is pressured. The Jets play single-high at the 8^th highest rate (56.8%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (34.5%). Shakir sees a slight decline in production against single-high, averaging 2.19 YPRR. Shakir sees a larger decline in production against man, averaging only 1.66 YPRR.

Suggested Pick
“U” 48.5 Rec Yds (-113)

WR Keon Coleman
Keon is averaging 45.3 receiving yards per game, 2.04 YPRR and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. He has been utilized as Josh Allen’s deep ball threat, as he has the highest aDOT on the team at 15.2. He’ll face a Jets defense that allows the 7^th least receiving yards and 2^nd fewest receiving TDs to WR. Keon primarily lines up out wide, with 90.2% of his routes coming from this position. The Jets are middle of the pack in YPRR allowed to wide alignment (1.90). The Jets have the 2^nd highest pressure rate over expected. Keon leads the Bills in YPRR when Josh is pressured (1.76). The Jets play single-high at the 8^th highest rate (56.8%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (34.5%). Keon leads the Bills in YPRR against single high (2.76) as well as against man (2.25).

Suggested Pick
“O” 16.5 Rec Long (-120)
“O” 23.5 Rec Yds (-115)
40+ Rec Yds (+225)
50+ Rec Yds (+380)
60+ Rec Yds (+600)
70+ Rec Yds (+1000)

TE Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid is averaging 35.3 receiving yards per game, 1.79 YPRR and has been targeted on 29% of his routes. One of the big changes from last season is that his route rate is only 57.7%, down from 65.1% last season. He’ll face a Jets defense that allows the 10^th fewest receiving yards and 11^th fewest receiving TDs to TE. Kincaid has lined up in the slot on 59.9% of his routes and inline on 25.3%. The Jets allow the 10^th fewest YPRR to the slot (1.79) as well as the 10^th fewest YPRR to inline (1.64). The Jets have the 2^nd highest pressure rate over expected. Kincaid averages 0.81 YPRR and is targeted on 19% of his routes when Allen is pressured. The Jets play single-high at the 8^th highest rate (56.8%) and man coverage at the 5^th highest rate (34.5%). Kincaid sees a decline in production against single-high, averaging 1.39 YPRR. Kincaid sees an immaterial decline in production against man, averaging 1.75 YPRR.

Suggested Pick
“U” 35.5 Rec Yds (-113)

Before last week, the Bills had scored 30+ points in 8 straight games. They lead the league in EPA/play. Since week 7, the Jets are 30^th in defensive EPA. Multiple starters on defense are injured/questionable coming into this game. Considering the Jets have no motivation and the Bills can clinch the 2 seed with a win, I expect a big performance from Josh Allen and the Bills, who are the better team from top to bottom.

Best Bet (Bills -9.5 -125)
Lean (Over 45.5 -110)
Bills 30 Jets 17

Anytime Touchdown: 

Best Pick: (BUF) Josh Allen -115
Allen has 9 TDs in the past 6 weeks and scored vs the Jets in their matchup earlier this season. The Jets have allowed the 2^nd most rushing TDs to QB on the season, and Josh Allen has all the motivation in the world this week after a disappointing offensive showing last week. He can clinch the 2 seed and run away as the favorite for MVP.  

Longshot: (BUF) Ray Davis +425
I Like Ray Davis as a longshot to score as the Bills are 9.5-point favorites and I expect this to be a blowout. Davis has scored in 5 of the Bills’ last 10 wins this season. James Cook’s snap share has also been down the past several weeks as it seems like they are saving him for the playoffs. I think Ray can steal one here against a disappointing Jets defense this season with a lot of injuries.

1st Touchdown: 

Best Pick: (BUF) James Cook +450
Cook has scored a 1^st half TD in 50% of the games this season and in 4 of L5. Cook is tied for the league lead in rushing TDs with 14. The Bills will likely pound the rock with him in the redzone early and as 9.5-point favorites, the Bills are much more likely to score first.

Longshot: (NYJ) DaVante Adams +800
DaVante has caught fire in the past 4 weeks, rekindling his connection with Aaron Rodgers, scoring 5 TDs. Schematically I prefer DaVante over Wilson, so if the Jets somehow score first, I like DaVante’s chances as Rodgers clear favorite target.

Parlay #1: (+483)

Keon Coleman 25+ Rec Yds

Breece Hall O 23.5 Rec Yds

Josh Allen Anytime TD

Parlay #2: (+1982)

Breece Hall 40+ Rec Yds

James Cook 1^st Half TD Scorer

Keon Coleman 40+ Rec Yds

Parlay #3: Longshot (+5665)

Keon Coleman 70+ Rec Yds

Breece Hall 40+ Rec Yds

James Cook 1^st Half TD Scorer

QB Cooper Rush
Cooper Rush will face a significant challenge this week as he goes up against the Philadelphia Eagles’ formidable secondary. The Eagles have been among the best defensive units in the league when it comes to limiting production through the air. They’ve allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (198.7), held opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage of just 61.8% (fourth-best in the league), and boast the sixth-lowest passer rating allowed at 84.4. Their ability to stifle passing attacks will put pressure on Rush to be efficient with his opportunities, a tall task given the circumstances. Although Philadelphia’s defensive line ranks 24th in pressure rate, they’ve still managed to excel as a pass-rushing unit, earning the second-best grade in the league from Pro Football Focus. This suggests that while the pressure might not always materialize statistically, the Eagles’ pass rush can still disrupt opposing quarterbacks effectively. Rush, who has been serviceable over his last six games with an average of 247 passing yards per outing, will need to stay poised in the pocket against this opportunistic defense. The absence of CeeDee Lamb, however, looms large for Rush. Without his top receiving option, the Cowboys’ passing attack could struggle to find rhythm and consistency. In such a difficult matchup, betting on Rush to exceed his passing yardage or touchdown totals appears risky. A more viable option might be to consider his interception prop, as the Eagles’ defense thrives on creating turnovers. While Rush has thrown just two interceptions over his last six games, those performances came against much softer defensive units. Against a team like Philadelphia, mistakes could be inevitable.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions -155
‘O’ 32.5 Pass Attempts -119

RB Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle has emerged as a key piece of the Dallas offense in the second half of the season, solidifying his role as the primary ball carrier. Despite a down performance last week against Tampa Bay, Dowdle had been a model of consistency prior to that, logging 18+ carries in four consecutive games while eclipsing 85 rushing yards in each. He’s also shown some versatility as a pass-catcher, recording 3+ receptions in two of those outings. However, this week he faces a significant test against the Philadelphia Eagles’ stout run defense. Philadelphia has been one of the league’s best at stopping the run, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (102.9) and the eighth-lowest yards per carry (4.28). They’ve also done an excellent job limiting scoring opportunities for running backs, surrendering the fifth-lowest rushing touchdown rate (2.5%). Recent performances by opposing lead backs underscore this dominance, with Brian Robinson managing just 24 yards on 10 carries and Najee Harris being held to 14 yards on six carries. For Dowdle, these numbers paint a challenging picture. One area where Dowdle might find some hope is in exploiting explosive run opportunities, as Philadelphia ranks 14th in explosive run rate allowed (5.2%). Additionally, their 10th-lowest stuff rate (41%) suggests Dowdle could avoid consistent backfield disruptions. Still, game script could be a factor. If the Eagles take an early lead, Dallas may be forced to abandon the run, further limiting Dowdle’s potential. While his recent breakout has been impressive, this matchup appears to be one of his toughest yet, making it hard to rely on him for significant production this week.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 60.5 Rushing Yards -110
‘U’ 0.5 Touchdowns (DFS)

WR Brandon Cooks
Brandon Cooks steps into the WR1 role for Dallas this week with CeeDee Lamb sidelined, but the matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles’ elite secondary poses significant challenges. Philadelphia’s defense has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards per game (198.7), the second-lowest yards per reception (9.97), and the fewest yards after catch per reception (4.90). Their ability to limit explosive plays and contain receivers in space makes this a nightmare scenario for Cooks, who relies heavily on his speed and ability to create separation. With the Eagles boasting two elite corners, it’s difficult to envision Cooks finding much success in this game. Even with increased opportunities, the defensive matchup severely caps his upside. His low projected reception and yardage totals reflect the tough environment, and it’s hard to trust him to deliver meaningful production. In a game where Dallas may struggle to move the ball through the air, Cooks is likely to be neutralized.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions -135

WR KaVontae Turpin
KaVontae Turpin has been utilized creatively by the Cowboys, seeing opportunities in both the rushing and receiving game, but the production simply hasn’t followed. Over his last three games, Turpin has failed to combine for more than 35 total yards in any outing. His role remains limited, and his touches have not translated into consistent offensive contributions. This week’s matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles only makes things more challenging. The Eagles’ secondary excels at limiting explosive plays, which neutralizes one of Turpin’s key attributes—his speed. Without the ability to break big plays, his upside is significantly capped. While lines for Turpin aren’t available yet, it’s tough to find value in either his receiving or combined rushing and receiving props given the difficult matchup and his limited involvement in the offense.

Suggested Picks
PASS

TE Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys is coming off a solid performance, securing 6 of 9 targets for 40 receiving yards in their last game. His involvement in the offense is encouraging, especially for fantasy managers looking for a reliable option. However, his Week 17 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles presents significant challenges. Philadelphia has been a tough defense for tight ends this season, ranking among the best in the league at limiting receiving production to the position. The Eagles have allowed the second fewest receiving yards per game (36.5) to tight ends, the fifth fewest receptions per game (4.13), and the eighth fewest targets (6.33). Despite these impressive defensive stats, there is a potential avenue for Ferguson to remain relevant. Philadelphia does rank 14th in checkdown rate allowed (9.3%), which could provide Ferguson with opportunities for short, easy receptions, particularly in situations where Dallas opts for quick throws. However, given the Eagles' ability to stifle tight ends and their overall defensive prowess, it's hard to expect Ferguson to hit the over on his receiving total in this matchup. While a reasonable target share should still come his way, the combination of Philadelphia's strong defense and the difficulty in moving the ball downfield against them makes it likely that Ferguson falls short of his receiving yard total.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 41.5 Receiving Yards -106

QB Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett steps into a challenging but intriguing matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who present a defense with both strengths and vulnerabilities. While Dallas has been effective at generating pressure, ranking fourth in the NFL with 46 sacks, they’ve also shown susceptibility against the pass. The Cowboys have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game (243.5) and the fifth-highest completion rate (68.2%), which could give Pickett opportunities to produce through the air. However, their ability to capitalize on mistakes is notable, with 13 interceptions on the season, so Pickett will need to be careful with the football. Last week, Pickett showed his willingness to air it out, particularly leaning on his top two receiving options. A.J. Brown was a focal point, seeing 15 targets and turning them into 8 catches for 97 yards, while DeVonta Smith added 6 catches for 51 yards on 8 targets. This bodes well for Pickett in this matchup, as the Cowboys allow the highest first-read rate in the NFL (72.7%), suggesting Brown could again see heavy involvement. Dallas plays a mix of man and zone coverage at a league-average rate, giving Pickett and his receivers varied opportunities to exploit coverage mismatches. With Saquon Barkley likely to remain heavily involved in the offensive game plan, Pickett may find some relief from the pressure, allowing him to continue distributing the ball effectively. Still, Dallas’ knack for getting to the quarterback and forcing turnovers could create challenges if the offensive line struggles to hold up. Overall, Pickett’s ability to connect with his primary weapons, particularly Brown, gives him a chance to find success, but his propensity for high passing volume also increases the risk of turnovers in what should be a competitive game.

Suggest Picks
‘O’ 172.5 Passing Yards -110

RB Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley is primed for another standout performance as he faces a Dallas defense that has struggled to contain opposing running backs this season. Barkley has been dominant, surpassing 100 rushing yards in six of his last eight games, including four games with over 120 yards. His workload has been equally impressive, with 20+ carries in seven of his last ten outings, and there’s no reason to expect a lighter usage this week. Barkley remains the centerpiece of Philadelphia’s offense, and this matchup offers plenty of reasons for optimism. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against the run, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (136) and the third-highest yards per carry in the league. Their defense has also struggled to limit explosive plays, giving up the fourth-highest explosive run rate (6.2%) and the highest rushing touchdown rate (5.5%). Dallas ranks poorly in terms of stuffing runs at or behind the line, with the third-lowest stuff rate (37.1%), which bodes well for Barkley’s ability to consistently pick up yardage. Additionally, the Cowboys have shown particular vulnerability against man/gap running schemes, allowing the second-highest success rate to these runs. Barkley operates out of this scheme in about 43% of his carries, making this an ideal setup for him to exploit. Given his current form and the favorable matchup, Barkley is well-positioned for another big performance. With the potential for a heavy workload and Dallas’ struggles against the run, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him eclipse 100 yards yet again while finding the end zone in what shapes up as a favorable spot.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 125.5 rushing + receiving -115

WR A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown is in a prime spot to deliver a strong performance this week against the Dallas Cowboys. With Kenny Pickett under center for Philadelphia, Brown’s role as the primary receiving option becomes even more critical. Pickett showed last week that he’s willing to lean heavily on his top target, and this matchup sets up well for Brown to thrive. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game (243.4), the seventh-highest yards per reception (11.59), and the most yards after catch per reception (6.37). Brown’s ability to dominate in space makes him especially dangerous against a defense that struggles to limit YAC. Additionally, Dallas ranks first in first-read target rate, meaning Brown is likely to see plenty of looks as the go-to option in the Eagles’ offense. His combination of size, speed, and physicality makes him a nightmare matchup for any secondary, and the Cowboys’ tendency to allow chunk plays only amplifies his upside. If Brown can capitalize on the space he’s afforded after the catch, he’s poised for another explosive outing. In a game where Philadelphia will rely on their top playmakers, Brown’s ceiling is as high as ever.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 65.5 Receiving Yards -110

WR DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith could play a pivotal role in the Eagles' offense this week against the Dallas Cowboys, especially as an underneath option for Kenny Pickett. Last week, Smith displayed solid chemistry with Pickett, catching 6 of 8 targets for 51 yards. In this matchup, he’s well-suited to work the short-to-intermediate areas of the field while A.J. Brown takes on the deeper responsibilities. With Dallas allowing significant production to wide receivers, Smith should see steady involvement as a reliable outlet in the passing game. Pickett is likely to lean on Smith for quick passes, particularly since tight end Grant Calcaterra hasn’t been much of a factor and Saquon Barkley hasn’t been heavily utilized in the passing game in recent weeks. This dynamic sets up nicely for Smith to rack up receptions, making his receptions prop an intriguing angle once the line becomes available. While his yardage upside might be capped by Brown’s dominance and Dallas’ defensive tendencies, Smith’s role as a dependable target in high-percentage situations makes him a strong candidate to hit his reception totals.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (when it releases)

TE Grant Calcaterra
Grant Calcaterra is unlikely to be a significant factor in this week’s matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. After recording just one catch against Pittsburgh in his last outing, Calcaterra remains a minimal part of Philadelphia’s passing attack. The matchup against Dallas doesn’t do him any favors, as the Cowboys have been one of the league’s toughest defenses against tight ends. They’ve allowed the third-fewest receptions and the eighth-fewest receiving yards to the position, consistently limiting production across the board. With a betting line set at 1.5 receptions and heavy juice on the over, the value on Calcaterra is minimal. His low involvement in the offense, combined with the unfavorable matchup, makes him a clear stay-away option in this spot.

Suggested Picks
PASS

This is an ugly game to cap. Missing key pieces from both offenses make things difficult. Here’s what I imagine Sirianni wanting to do. Control the game on the ground and manage the clock with Pickett. We all saw that he can be a liability at times and PHI can rely on it’s defense to make stops, especially against a beat up DAL offense. I also think DAL will try and establish the run and try and control the clock (to a lesser success). This total is low for a reason and you have to look at taking the points in a spread with a low total.

Best Bet (Teaser: DAL +14.5/Under 45.5)
Lean (DAL +7.5)
Eagles 27 Cowboys 23

Anytime Touchdown: 

AJ Brown +155

AJ scored last week and appeared to be Pickett’s favorite target. He draws a very solid matchup again against a defense that has allowed 15 receiving touchdowns to opposing WR’s.

Jalen Tolbert +500
Tolbert, surprisingly, has the second most red zone targets on this Dallas Offense this season. Cooks should garner the top coverage and Turpin will be accounted for. If DAL scores, it’s seemingly more likely through the air, so we are getting a solid price here on Tolbert.

1st Touchdown: 

Saquon Barkley +250
This is a low price, but there isn’t many other ways to go here. He checks all the boxes without Hurts stealing goal line carries. He gets the volume, has the explosiveness and has a good matchup to exploit.

Jake Ferguson +1700
I know, it’s a bad matchup, but Ferg continues to be heavily used inside the red zone dating back to last season. It’s hard to picture Dowdle breaking through the defensive line and without CeeDee, Ferguson might be the best pass catcher (and big body) that Rush has to lean on.

Builder Parlay (-110)

Saquon Barkley 80+ Rushing Yards

PHI Eagles ML

Jake Ferguson 4+ Receptions

Longshot Parlay #1 (+925)

Total Under 48.5

Saquon 2+ Touchdowns

DAL Cowboys +10.5

Longshot Parlay #2 (+1132)

AJ Brown Touchdown

Jake Ferguson Touchdown

PHI Eagles ML

QB Jordan Love
Love is averaging 241.2 passing yards per game, 8.19 YPA and has thrown 24 TDs. He has a 63.2% completion percentage and a 97.8 QB rating. He’ll face a Vikings defense allowing the 2^nd most passing yards but are middle of the pack in passing TDs allowed. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league (39.1%). When blitzed, Love averages 8.18 YPA, his completion percentage drops to 58.9% and his QB rating drops to 81.5. Minnesota plays two-high at the highest rate (65.3%) and zone at the 6^th highest rate in the league (75.4%). Love averages 7.40 YPA, a 66.8% completion rate and a 105.8 QB rating against two-high. Against zone, Jordan averages 9.05 YPA, a completion rate of 67.7% and a QB rating of 93.4. We should see a lot of passing volume from Love as the Vikings are a pass funnel due to their elite rush defense. They force the 6^th highest pass rate over expected. When Love played against the Vikings earlier this season, he threw for 389 yards and 4 TDs.

Suggested Pick
“O” 248.5 Pass Yds
“O” 32.5 Pass Att (-106)
“O” 37.5 Long Pass (-120)

RB Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs is averaging 81.1 rushing yards per game on 4.37 YPC and has rushed for 13 TDs. He’s also averaging 22.7 receiving yards per game. The Vikings allow the 4^th least rushing yards and 4^th least rushing TDs per game to opposing RBs. On a per carry basis, they are the 2^nd toughest matchup in the league allowing 3.88 YPC. Only 2.7% of rush attempts against them have gone for 20+ yards, which is the 3^rd lowest rate in the league. They do not allow big run plays. They are specifically strong against man/gap concepts. Allowing only 3.19 YPC, 2^nd lowest. That compares to 4.35 YPC against zone concepts, which is the 12^th lowest. 47.1% of Jacobs’ attempts have been in man/gap concept, where he averages 4.19 YPC. That compares to 52.5% of his attempts in zone concept, where he averages a more efficient 4.54 YPC. Considering the Vikings force the 6^th lowest rush rate over expected, Jacobs may see less volume than usual in this matchup. When they played earlier in the season, Jacobs had 9 rush attempts for 51 yards. That’s down from a season long average of 18.5 rush attempts and 81.1 rushing yards.

Suggested Pick
“U” 18.5 Rush Att (-105)
“U” 72.5 Rush Yds (-115)

WR Christian Watson
Watson averages 44.3 receiving yards per game, 2.73 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He’ll face a Vikings defense that allows the most receiving yards, most receptions and 7^th most receiving TDs to WR. Watson has lined up out wide on 70.9% of his routes. The Vikings allow the 12^th lowest target share to wide alignment. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league (39.1%). Watson has been the most effective Packers’ receiver against the blitz, with his YPRR increasing to 3.01. Minnesota plays two-high at the highest rate (65.3%) and zone at the 6^th highest rate in the league (75.4%). Watson is also the most productive receiver against two-high, averaging 2.79 YPRR. Against zone, Watson sees negative splits averaging 2.45 YPRR and 16% TPRR. Outside of the blowout last week where starters we’re pulled early, Watson has seen an increase in snap share post bye. He’s leading the Packers WRs at a 78.1% rate. That compares to only a 53.4% snap share prior to the bye. He has seen an increase in production as a result.

Suggested Pick
“O” 46.5 Rec Yds (-115)
60+ Rec Yds (+155)
70+ Rec Yds (+235)
80+ Rec Yds (+350)
90+ Rec Yds (+500)

WR Jayden Reed
Jayden Reed averages 53.5 receiving yards per game, 2.49 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He’ll face a Vikings defense that allows the most receiving yards, most receptions and 7^th most receiving TDs to WR. Reed has lined up in the slot on 77.6% of his routes. The Vikings allow the 7^th highest target share to the slot. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league (39.1%). Against the blitz, reed sees negative splits, averaging 2.10 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Minnesota plays two-high at the highest rate (65.3%) and zone at the 6^th highest rate in the league (75.4%). Reed also sees negative splits against two-high, averaging 2.26 YPRR and 24% TPRR. Against zone, Reed has been the Packers most productive receiver. He averages 3.12 YPRR and 22% TPRR. Prior to the week 10 bye, Reed had a 66.2% snap share. Post bye, outside of last week where the starters were pulled early due to blowout, his snap share rate has decreased to 56.5%.

Suggested Pick
“U” 50.5 Rec Yds (-115)

WR Romeo Doubs
Doubs averages 45.3 receiving yards per game, 1.88 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He’ll face a Vikings defense that allows the most receiving yards, most receptions and 7^th most receiving TDs to WR. Doubs has lined up out wide on 86.2% of his routes. The Vikings allow the 12^th lowest target share to wide alignment. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league (39.1%). Doubs sees positive splits against the blitz, averaging 2.6 YPRR and 23% TPRR. Minnesota plays two-high at the highest rate (65.3%) and zone at the 6^th highest rate in the league (75.4%). Doubs sees decreased production against two-high, on identical volume, averaging 1.54 YPRR and 21% TPRR. Against zone, Doubs sees slightly positive splits, averaging 1.94 YPRR and 22% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“O” 46.5 Rec Yds (-117)

TE Tucker Kraft
Kraft averages 41.2 receiving yards per game, 1.90 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. He’ll face a Vikings defense that is middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed and the 4^th toughest TD matchup for TEs. Kraft has lined up inline on 56.3% of his routes and in the slot on 30.8%. The Vikings allow the 6^th lowest target share to inline, but the 7^th highest to the slot. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league (39.1%). Kraft does not see a material change in production against the blitz, averaging 1.82 YPRR and 17% TPRR. Minnesota plays two-high at the highest rate (65.3%) and zone at the 6^th highest rate in the league (75.4%). Kraft’s production also does not change much against two-high, averaging 1.89 YPRR and 19% TPRR. Against zone, Kraft sees positive splits, averaging 2.23 YPRR and 19% TPRR.

Suggested Pick
“O” 33.5 Rec Yds (-115)

QB Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold is averaging 251.7 passing yards per game, 8.19 YPA, and has thrown 32 TDs. He has a completion percentage of 67.2% and a QB rating of 105.4. He’ll face a Packers defense that is middle of the pack in passing yards allowed and allow the 9^th fewest passing TDs. The Packers play the 3^rd highest rate of zone (77.9%) and have been split evenly between single-high (50.6%) and two-high (49.4%). Darnold averages 8.11 YPA had has a 92 QB rating against zone. Those are negative splits compared to his 10.10 YPA and 112.5 QB rating against man coverage. The Packers blitz at the second lowest rate in the NFL (17.5%). This is a negative for Sam, as he averages 7.41 YPA and has a 99.8 QB rating when he is not blitzed. That compares to 10.91 YPA and a QB rating of 125.2 against the blitz.

Suggested Pick
“U” 261.5 Pass Yds (-115)

RB Aaron Jones
Jones is averaging 69.7 rushing yards per game, 4.49 YPC and has rushed for 5 TDs. He also averages 23.2 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a Packers defense that allows the 10^th fewest rushing yards and 13^th fewest rushing TDs to RB. They do however allow the 8^th most receiving yards to RB. 57.9% of Jones’ attempts are zone concept, where he averages 4.43 YPC and a 52.6% success rate. That compares to 41.6% of his attempts in man/gap concept, where he averages 4.48 YPC and a 46.4% success rate. The Packers allow the 7^th fewest YPC against zone concept, but the 14^th most to man/gap concept. Jones caught 4 receptions for 46 yards earlier in the season against his former team. The Packers play the 3^rd highest rate of zone (77.9%). Jones sees negative splits against zone, as he averages only 1.32 YPRR compared to 1.96 YPRR against man. I still think his receiving line is good value in a revenge spot.

Suggested Pick
“O” 19.5 Rec Yds (-114)

WR Justin Jefferson
JJetta averages 92.5 receiving yards per game, 2.80 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He leads the team in 1^st-read rate at 33.9%. He’ll face a Packers defense allowing the 3^rd least receiving yards and 5^th least receiving TDs to WR. Jefferson has lined up out wide on 70.8% of his routes. The Packers allow the 3^rd lowest target share (36.1%) and the 3^rd fewest YPRR (1.69) to wide alignment. The Packers play the 3^rd highest rate of zone (77.9%) and have been split evenly between single-high (50.6%) and two-high (49.4%). Jefferson sees positive splits against zone, averaging 2.88 YPRR, 27% TPRR and a 34.6% 1^st-read rate. The Packers blitz at the second lowest rate in the NFL (17.5%). Jefferson sees negative splits when Darnold is not blitzed, as he averages 2.22 YPRR and 26% TPRR. That compares to 4.72 YPRR and 29% TPRR when blitzed.

Suggested Pick
“U” 90.5 Rec Yds (-120)

WR Jordan Addison
Addison averages 62 receiving yards per game, 2.07 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He is 2^nd on the team in 1^st-read rate at 24%. He’ll face a Packers defense allowing the 3^rd least receiving yards and 5^th least receiving TDs to WR. Addison has lined up out wide on 65.8% and in the slot on 33.9% of his routes. The Packers allow the 3^rd lowest target share (36.1%) and the 3^rd fewest YPRR (1.69) to wide alignment. They are however susceptible to the slot, allowing the 4^th highest target share (35%) and 7^th most YPRR (1.71) against this alignment. The Packers play the 3^rd highest rate of zone (77.9%) and have been split evenly between single-high (50.6%) and two-high (49.4%). Against zone, Addison averages 2.13 YPRR, 21% TPRR and a 1^st-read rate of 23.7%. The Packers blitz at the second lowest rate in the NFL (17.5%). Addison sees negative splits when Darnold is not blitzed, as he averages 1.84 YPRR and 20% TPRR. That compares to 2.79 YPRR and 24% TPRR when blitzed.

Suggested Pick
“O” 58.5 Rec Yds (-113)
“O” 4.5 Rec (-115)

TE TJ Hockenson
Hockenson is averaging 47.3 receiving yards per game, 1.81 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He is 3^rd on the team in 1^st read rate at 17.5%. He’ll face a Packers defense that allows the 7^th most receiving yards, but the 11^th fewest receiving TDs to TE. Hockenson has lined up inline 57.9% and in the slot on 26.3% of his routes. The Packers allow the 7^th lowest target share (10.2%) but the 5^th most YPRR (2.11) to inline. They are also susceptible to the slot, allowing the 4^th highest target share (35%) and 7^th most YPRR (1.71) against this alignment. The Packers play the 3^rd highest rate of zone (77.9%) and have been split evenly between single-high (50.6%) and two-high (49.4%). Hockenson sees negative splits against zone, averaging 1.42 YPRR and 20% TPRR. The Packers blitz at the second lowest rate in the NFL (17.5%). Hockenson sees slightly negative production but higher volume when Darnold is not blitzed, as he averages 1.78 YPRR and 23% TPRR. That compares to 1.93 YPRR and 14% TPRR when blitzed.

Suggested Pick
“O” 42.5 Rec Yds (-113)
50+ Rec Yds (+135)
60+ Rec Yds (+220)

The Vikings won the first matchup of the season 31-29. The Packers have won 4 of their last 5 games, while the Vikings are riding an 8-game winning streak. According to PFF, the Vikings have had the 2^nd easiest strength of schedule to date. The Packers have had the 11^th hardest schedule. I would consider these 2 teams evenly matched, and the MIN -1.5 line reflects that. I like the Packers to get revenge after losing earlier this season, and I think the edge the Packers have on the Vikings is their defense.

Best Bet: (Packers +1.5)
Lean: (Under 48.5)
Packers 24 Vikings 21

Anytime TD

Best Pick: (MIN) Aaron Jones -135
Jones has scored in 4 of the last 5 weeks and gets a revenge game against his former team. He can score in a multitude of ways, both in the running game and receiving game. The Packers allow the 13^th fewest rushing TDs to RB, but the 13^th most receiving TDs to RB. He had a good game in their first matchup but was unable to find the endzone. I think he finds it this week.

Longshot: (GB) Christian Watson +185
The Vikings allow the 7^th most receiving TDs to WR and schematically, Watson is in a smash spot. He’s seen 3 redzone targets in the past 3 weeks, and that includes last week where the Packers blew out the Saints and barely threw the ball. He only has 2 TDs on the season, but he’s shown his TD capability last season.

First TD

Best Pick: (MIN) Aaron Jones +550
Jones has 3 1^st quarter TDs on the season. I expect the Vikings to get one of their top playmakers the ball early and often. This is a revenge narrative; he has all the motivation.

Longshot: (GB) Tucker Kraft +1200
Kraft has scored a TD in 46% of games this season when he has a 70%+ snap share. He’s been a main redzone threat for Jordan Love, as he’s averaging 1.2 redzone targets per game. I like the Packers to win this game, and if they score first, I like Kraft’s chances to be the one celebrating.

Parlay #1: (+355)

Jordan Love “O” 248.5 Pass Yds

Josh Jacobs “U” 73.5 Rush Yds

Tucker Kraft “O” 36.5 Rec Yds

Parlay #2: (+1211)

TJ Hockenson 50+ Rec Yds

Aaron Jones 25+ Rec Yds

Sam Darnold “U” 257.5 Pass Yds

Parlay #3: Longshot (+3143)

Jordan Love “O” 248.5 Pass Yds

Sam Darnold “U” 257.5 Pass Yds

Jayden Reed “U” 52.5 Rec Yds

TJ Hockenson 60+ Rec Yds

QB Jayden Daniels
Facing a top-tier defense, Daniels not only rose to the occasion but delivered the best performance of any quarterback in Week 16, throwing for five touchdowns against the Eagles. This was his fourth consecutive game with multiple passing scores—a significant improvement from earlier in the season when he did that in just three of his first 11 games. Daniels has also seen a shift in his touchdown efficiency. In his first 11 games, he held a modest 3.4% touchdown rate (26th in the league). Over the past four games, however, his touchdown rate has surged to 8.7% (2nd in the league), and he’s demonstrated versatility by connecting on three scores outside the end zone. This week, Daniels faces a favorable matchup against the Falcons. While they’ve recently benefited from matchups against less challenging quarterbacks like Drew Lock and Desmond Ridder, they’ve struggled against more dynamic signal-callers. Prior to this stretch, Atlanta surrendered standout performances to Sam Darnold, Bo Nix and Derek Carr. The Falcons have also had difficulty containing mobile quarterbacks, ranking 22nd in rushing yards allowed to the position. Justin Fields (57 yards), Jalen Hurts (85 yards), Baker Mayfield (42 yards), and Dak Prescott (30 yards) all found success on the ground against them, while even Ridder (28 yards) and Andy Dalton (21 yards) added rushing production. Daniels, who is averaging 49.1 rushing yards per game, is well-positioned to exploit this weakness.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 49.5 Rush Yards (-110)

RB Brian Robinson
Sunday was a tough outing for Brian Robinson, who managed just 24 yards on 10 carries and added 17 yards on 2 receptions. Compounding the struggles, Robinson lost two fumbles, further limiting his impact. After an impressive 103-yard performance on 16 carries in Week 13, his production has dipped significantly, with just 89 rushing yards on 31 attempts over the past two games. Robinson’s role in the backfield also took a hit, as he handled only 57.1% of Washington’s backfield opportunities compared to the 85.7% share he saw in Week 15. Washington’s status as a home favorite in this matchup could create a favorable environment for their ground game. Atlanta’s defense, while allowing an average of 4.32 yards per carry to running backs (18th in the league), has been stingy in the red zone, surrendering just four rushing touchdowns to the position all season, tied for the fewest in the NFL. Robinson will need to capitalize on any openings in the Atlanta defense to help Washington establish a balanced attack.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 14.5 Rush Attempts (-132)

WR Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin showcased his big-play ability once again in his most recent outing, catching 5 of 6 targets for 60 yards, highlighted by a 32-yard touchdown. That score marked McLaurin’s 12th receiving touchdown of the season, placing him just behind Ja'Marr Chase for the league lead. Impressively, 10 of McLaurin’s touchdown catches have come on passes directly into the end zone, accounting for nearly half (46.7%) of Washington’s throws to that area of the field—ranking him second in the league in end-zone target share. Olamide Zaccheaus led the team with eight targets, while Jamison Crowder stepped up with a crucial late-game score, slightly overshadowing McLaurin’s day. Even so, McLaurin’s recent trends in usage are promising, with his target share and air-yard dominance increasing over the past several weeks as Jayden Daniels continues to grow more comfortable as the starter. Against Atlanta’s defense, McLaurin has an excellent opportunity. The Falcons rank 31st in yards allowed to lead receivers, surrendering 9.1 yards per target and a 7.3% touchdown rate to WR1s. Their secondary has struggled to contain big plays, with notable performances from Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and even rookie Ladd McConkey in recent weeks. Given the favorable matchup, McLaurin should be a focal point of the Commanders' passing attack. His ability to win one-on-one matchups and capitalize on Jayden Daniels’ increasing confidence makes him a clear go-to receiver in what could be another productive game.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 24.5 Longest Reception (-120)
‘O’ 0.5 TD (+127)

TE Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz returned to action on Sunday after clearing concussion protocol but had a quiet performance, managing just one catch for 12 yards. Despite being on the field for 80% of passing plays, he struggled to make a significant impact against a tough defensive opponent.Atlanta has been effective at limiting tight ends this season, allowing a 69.6% catch  rate and a low 3.3% touchdown rate to the position. Their defense consistently minimizes the production of opposing tight ends, making it a challenging matchup for players in this role. Ertz remains a dependable short-yardage target, but his opportunities for substantial contributions were limited last game, and I think they likely will be again this week against a Falcons defense that is good against tight ends.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

QB Michael Penix Jr.
In his first career start at home against the Giants, Michael Penix completed 18-of-27 passes (66.7%) for 202 yards. However, his receivers struggled with drops, as Penix experienced the highest drop rate (11.1%) of any quarterback in Week 16. Key plays included Drake London dropping a potential touchdown pass and Kyle Pitts failing to secure a pass inside the five-yard line, which ultimately led to an interception. One of the main focuses heading into the game was how Atlanta’s offense would adjust with Penix at quarterback. There were some positive shifts. He utilized play-action on 22.2% of his dropbacks, which is an increase from Kirk Cousins’ league-low rate of 14.3%. Additionally, Atlanta integrated more pre-snap motion, using it on 69% of Penix’s dropbacks, up from 59.4% under Cousins. Penix also liked throwing outside the numbers, doing so on 61.9% of his attempts, ranking fourth among quarterbacks in Week 16. By comparison, Cousins had a significantly lower rate at 42.8%. While these changes were encouraging signs for the offense, it’s important to recognize that Penix benefited from playing at home against a vulnerable Giants defense—an ideal scenario for a first start. His next challenge will be far tougher: a road game against a playoff-caliber team led by a seasoned defensive head coach. The difference between last week’s situation and this week make for a tough call.

Suggested Play
None

RB Bijan Robinson
Robinson has surpassed 100 yards in 9 of his last 10 games, further solidifying his role as the centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense.  Atlanta has leaned heavily on its run game in recent weeks, posting two of its three lowest dropback rates of the season over the past two games. This trend suggests the team will continue to run its offense through Robinson, even as a road underdog. That said, Washington’s coaching staff, led by a defensive head coach, may look to prioritize containing Robinson, which could pose a challenge. Washington’s run defense has shown significant vulnerabilities. They’ve allowed   running backs to average 4.9 yards per carry (28th in the league) and have given up explosive runs at the highest rate in the NFL, with 10-yard rushes occurring on 13.4% of attempts. Additionally, Washington has allowed the most yards before contact per rush (2.53) to opposing running backs. These weaknesses could provide Robinson with opportunities to continue his dominance, even in a challenging game environment.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 80.5 Rush Yards (-110)

WR Drake London
Drake London caught five of his eight targets for 59 yards on Sunday, leading the team with a 30.8% target share in Michael Penix’s debut. However, he was outgained by Darnell Mooney and missed a key opportunity by dropping a pass in the end zone. London has been consistent in his role but hasn’t delivered many explosive performances, with only one 100-yard game this season. His production has been steady, though he hasn't reached standout levels in recent weeks. London split his snaps nearly evenly between the slot (46%) and outside (54%) in the game, showcasing his versatility. Washington has shown strength against slot receivers, allowing just 7.5 yards per target (7th in the league), but has been more vulnerable in the red zone, giving up touchdowns on 8.9% of slot-targeted passes (30th). Against outside receivers, they’ve allowed 8.2 yards per target (14th) and a 4.8% touchdown rate (13th). London remains a key red-zone weapon, leading the league by claiming 56.5% of his team’s end-zone targets. He continues to be an important part of Atlanta’s passing attack and has the ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Suggested Play
‘O’ 0.5 TDs (+155)

WR Darnell Mooney
Darnell Mooney caught five of his six targets for 82 yards, finishing second on the team with a 23.1% target share from Michael Penix. Over the past three games, he has outpaced Drake London in two of them and is now just 23 yards behind him on the season. Mooney has consistently shown an ability to make plays and is becoming a more prominent target in the offense. He is primarily lined up outside, playing 78% of his snaps on the perimeter. Washington has been more effective at limiting deep passes, allowing just a 30.8% completion rate (12-of-39) on deep throws to wide receivers, which could impact Mooney's ability to get downfield. However, he remains a valuable contributor in the offense with the potential to make an impact, especially in a matchup where big plays can be a factor, but I simply hesitate to take his yards or his long completion prop solely based on the tough matchup he faces here.

Suggested Play
Pass

TE Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts’ struggles continued last week when he volleyballed a touchdown attempt into the hands of the defense, leading to Michael Penix Jr.’s first career interception. This play was just another reminder of how far Pitts has fallen since his promising rookie year. Over his last seven games, he has averaged just 3.5 receptions per game, marking the most disappointing stretch of what has already been an underwhelming three-year career. While the revolving door of quarterbacks and play-callers in Atlanta hasn’t helped, Pitts' lack of consistency and production remains glaring. The Commanders are a middle-of-the-pack matchup for tight ends, but given Pitts' recent form, there's little confidence in relying on him, especially with the stakes high. Moving forward, there’s little reason to expect improvement from him, as he continues to be one of the most unreliable tight ends in the league.

Suggested Play
‘U’ 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Michael Penix and the Falcons are getting some respect in Vegas as just a 4.5 point underdog here, and while I am high on the future of Penix, this ignores how good the Commanders have been rolling as of late and ignores the fact that his initial game was against the Giants. Now, Penix faces a legitimate defensive challenge in a tough road environment, and against a QB in Jayden Daniels that is coming off an absolute gem of a game against a team that is beginning to hit its stride towards the postseason.

Best Bet: Commanders -4.5 -110
Lean: Over 47.5  -105
Commanders 31 Falcons 20

Anytime Touchdown Picks

(Commanders) Terry McLaurin +127
McLaurin last week caught his 12th receiving touchdown of the season, placing him just behind Ja'Marr Chase for the league lead. Impressively, 10 of McLaurin’s touchdown catches have come on passes directly into the end zone, accounting for nearly half (46.7%) of Washington’s throws to that area of the field—ranking him second in the league in end-zone target share.

(Falcons) Drake London +155
Against outside receivers, the Commanders have allowed 8.2 yards per target (14th) and a 4.8% touchdown rate (13th). London remains a key red-zone weapon, leading the league by claiming 56.5% of his team’s end-zone targets. He continues to be an important part of Atlanta’s passing attack and has the ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

First Touchdown Picks

(Commanders) Brian Robinson Jr +600
Robinson Jr. has been a steady contributor on one of the top 10 scoring offenses this season, with 8 touchdowns to his name. While he’s been held without a score in the last two games, he's likely to break that streak against a struggling Falcons defense. Look for Robinson Jr. to find the end zone early in what should be another high-scoring performance from the Commanders.

Parlay 1 +450

Jayden Daniels ‘O’ 48.5 Rush Yards

Zach Ertz ‘U’ 33.5 Receiving Yards

Kyle Pitts ‘U’ 20.5 Receiving Yards

Parlay 2 +735

Drake London ATD

Brian Robinson ATD

Terry McLaurin ATD

QB Jared Goff
Pressures on for Jared Goff and the Lions after Sam Darnold and the Vikings emerged victorious last night to take over the one-seed in the NFC. They'll have their handsful this week against the San Francisco 49ers. Now, the 49ers are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but you'd still figure a Kyle Shanahan team will bring their best against a tough opponent like the Lions. The 49ers are allowing the fifth fewest completions (19.1), the fourth fewest pass attempts (29.7) and the second fewest passing yards (195.4) per game to opposing QBs. San Fran are somewhat even in terms of the coverages they run, but they do run more zone, ranking 11th in the league. Goff has the best numbers against man coverage in the league, but that hasn't slowed him down against zone, either. He averages the second most passing yards per game, and the fourth most yards per attempt against the coverage and has the seventh highest completion percentage. However, the 49ers have counteracting numbers, as they allow the eighth fewest passing yards per game, completion percentage and the third fewest yards per attempt while in zone coverage. So, is there any edge here? I'm not so sure. What I am looking at is his ball security. He has just a 3% turnover-worthy throw percentage, which is 20th in the league among starting QBs. And outside of his five interception game against the Texans, he has just one interception in his last 11 games. The 49ers on the season are middle of the pack in terms of interceptions. However, they have not registered an interception over the past five weeks.

Suggested Pick:
Jared Goff u0.5 Interception (-125)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Sonic and Knuckles is a fun knick name and a deadly duo, but given Gibbs' skill talent, I think we're all excited to see him get the full workload behind this Lions offensive line. Gibbs did great in his lone start without Montgomery last week, he rushed for 109 yards on 23 attempts on the ground and added 45 yards on four receptions through the air. But, let's be fair, that was against the Bears' third worst run defence. This week, he gets the 49ers, who allow the seventh most rush attempts (23.7) but the 15th most rushing yards (97.8) per game. They also run the sixth most man/gap run scheme, allowing a higher yards per carry (4.43) than they do against zone concept (4.13). Gibbs definitely prefers zone, as he averages 6.03 yards per carry against that coverage, but still has an admirable 4.79 yards per carry against man/gap. But the ground isn't the only area they use Gibbs, he is a dynamic passing option out of the backfield, logging the 10th most reception (43) and the fourth most receiving yards (440) among all RBs. The 49ers allow the 12th most receptions (4.7) and the 13th most receiving yards (34.8) to RBs per game. Regardless of how they use him, if he's getting the full workload in this offence, and the 49ers are allowing 132.6 rushing & receiving yards to RBs per game, we shouldn't expect any less from Gibbs this week. The 49ers have allowed four of the last five starting RBs to go over their rushing & receiving yard line.

Suggested Pick:
Jahmyr Gibbs o125+ Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)

WR Amon Ra St. Brown
St. Brown remains one of the most elite slot receivers in the NFL. However, he has quieted down (outside of his 17 target, 14 reception for 193 receiving yards two weeks ago against the Bills). He has gone four of the last five games without exceeding six receptions and 75 receiving yards. And it seems crazy to say considering those are still great numbers, but he averages 6.7 receptions and 75.1 receiving yards on the season. Those are the exact numbers that he hasn't hit in four of the last five weeks. And this week may not be any easier as the 49ers allow the second fewest receptions (10.3) and the single fewest receiving yards (122.9) to WRs per game. With the 49ers running about the same amount of man/zone, it really doesn't matter, as St. Brown has about the same PFF grade against either coverage. However, he does see an increase in catch rate to 86%, and yards per route run to 2.38. St. Brown lines up in the slot 52% of the time and will mostly draw the Deommodore Lenoir matchup. Lenoir has been good at limiting yards, allowing 33, 30 and 24 receiving yards over his previous three games. However, he's allowed 30, 29 and 23 yards after the catch in those respective games. So Lenoir is allowing majority of his yardage after the catch. Also, San Francisco allows the second highest aDoT against slot receivers (10.9). What all this tells me, is that St. Brown is should be heavily targeted, down the field, and St. Brown is playing a CB who has been allowing majority of his yardage after the catch? Okay, I know where this is going. St. Brown has logged a 22+ yard reception in three of his last four games, and five of his last eight.

Suggested Pick:
Amon-Ra St. Brown o21.5 Longest Reception (-115)

WR Jameson Williams
For those who tailed my season long future bet of Jameson Williams 4+ receiving TDs cashed that out with me in his first seven games of the season. He has since tagged two TDs in his latest two games. However, he has started to round out more of his game to a regular reliable option rather than just a deep threat. He has logged 6+ targets in five of his last six games, and has gone over 60 yards in four of those games. Being the speedy burner that he is, Williams performs much better against man coverage. He sees his catch rate jump from 56.4% against zone to 81.8% against man, his yards per reception jump from 17.9 against zone to 21.4 against man and his yards per route run jump from 2.02 against zone to 2.88 against man. Which is too bad considering the 49ers run the 11th most zone coverage. Williams lines up all over the field, 35% on the left, 35% in the slot and 30% on the right. Considering he's mostly set to play on the outside, he will often draw the Renardo Green matchup. Green has not been a full time starter this season. But he did play a lot last week, logging 55 snaps, allowing five receptions on eight targets for 69 (nice) yards. Now, to outside WRs, it's the opposite as them against the slot, as the 49ers are allow the fourth lowest aDoT, the fifth lowest catch rate and the least amount of yards. Although he shouldn't be able to rack up the yards, he's burner speed is tough to bet against, and his volume has increased, so it's hard to predict Williams in anything in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

TE Sam LaPorta
LaPorta has had a disappointing season when you look at his numbers last season. But he's been getting more involved in the offence over the past three weeks, which probably explains St. Brown's decline. LaPorta has seen his three highest target games of the season, logging 7+ in each game, and has turned that into 16 receptions for 208 receiving yards. It might be a tougher matchup for LaPorta this week, however, as the 49ers allow the seventh fewest receptions (4.2) and the third fewest receiving yards (37.3) per game to TEs. LaPorta plays much better against zone coverage, seeing an increase in yards per reception, yards per route run and aDoT compared to man coverage. LaPorta runs 52.1% of his routes inline. The 49ers are good at limiting inline receivers due to their solid linebacker play, especially since Dre Greenlaw returned. They allow the seventh fewest yards per reception against inline receivers, but the 16th highest catch rate. With his increase in volume, LaPorta has recorded at least four receptions over his previous three games.

Suggested Pick:
Sam LaPorta 4+ Receptions (-210) (Parlay Piece)

QB Brock Purdy
While the 49ers don't have anything to play for outside of playing spoiler, Purdy is playing for his next contract, hopefully an extension in San Francisco. Purdy has had an up and down season, especially over his previous four games, where he has alternated 300+ passing yard games, following by sub-150 passing yard performances. If the trend continues, he'll go for sub-150. However, this Lions defence is banged up, but even before that, struggled to defend the pass. The Lions allow the 12th most completions (21.7), the fifth most pass attempts (35.3), and the sixth most passing yards (255.1) per game this season. Detroit runs the most man coverage (44.2%) in the entire league. Purdy is around the middle of the pack against man coverage with the 11th most passing yards, 12th highest yards per attempt and the 15th highest completion percentage. A good spot here would be to bet the under on Purdy's passing TDs considering he only has four against man coverage all season. But with a 50.5 over/under, that's a tad bit scary, especially against such a poor pass defence. One edge we find is that the Lions allow just a 52% completion percentage (52%) but the 13th highest yards per attempt (7.0) and third highest aDoT (11.0) while in man coverage. The Lions have allowed opposing QBs to go over their longest pass attempt in eight of their last 10 games, while Purdy has completed a 40+ longest completion in seven of his last 11 games.

Suggested Pick:
Brock Purdy o37.5 Longest Completion (-115)

RB Isaac Guerendo
The 49ers backfield just never seems to be healthy. Elijah Mitchell battled injuries so they traded for Christian McCaffrey, who played great last season, but then was hurt pretty much all this year. Then Jordan Mason becomes a reliable player, but then he gets hurt. Which now opened the opportunity for Guerendo to have the keys to the backfield. He's been good in his two starts, rushing for 31 times for 135 rushing yards and two touchdowns. This week will be his toughest matchup against the Detroit Lions, who allow the single fewest rush attempts (16.9) and the second fewest rushing yards (68.2) to RBs per game this season. And it's not like their weakness is through the air, because they allow the fourth fewest receptions (3.3) and the 14th fewest receiving yards (32.3) to RBs. Guerendo performs much better against zone scheme, as he averages a 5.55 yards per carry. However, the Lions are their best against zone scheme, allowing just a 3.82 yards per carry. In games where Guerendo has played more than 50% of snaps as the presumed starter, he has done well, averaging 73.3 rush yards per game. But those were against the Cowboys, Bears and Rams –– all teams who rank in the top half of rushing yards allowed per game. With the Lions allowing the single fewest rush attempts per game, and Guerendo battling through an injury, he'll likely see some of his volume cut into by Patrick Taylor. Not to mention this projects to be a game where the Lions win, and the 49ers might need to throw their run game plan out the window. Guerendo has gone under 16 rush attempts in two of his three starts.

Suggested Pick:
Isaac Guerendo 'U' 15.5 Rush Att (-115)

WR Deebo Samuel
You'd think that once Brandon Aiyuk was ruled out for the season, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Deebo revitalized his game last week against a difficult Miami secondary with seven receptions and 96 receiving yards. However, in the five games before that, Deebo did not record more than 22 receiving yards despite having games as many as four receptions in two of those games –– just a full fall from grace. But it is encouraging to see him do well last week, especially leading up to this weeks match against the Lions, who allow the second most receptions (14.7) and the second most receiving yards (187.6) to WRs per game. With the Lions running the most man coverage in the league, this isn't great for Deebo. He sees his catch rate dip from 70.2% against zone to 50% against man, his yards after catch fall from 8.3 against man to 6.7 against zone, his yards per route run decrease from 1.52 against man to 1.79 against zone and his aDoT from 6.5 against zone to 7.5 against man. Deebo lines up all over the field, 39% on the left, 30% in the slot and 32% on the right. So it's hard to predict a clear matchup for Deebo. For this reason, we're going to fade Deebo. He has gone under 50 receiving yards in five of his last six games.

Suggested Pick:
Deebo Samuel u49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Jauan Jennings
I have a rule when betting this 49ers passing game. When they are playing a zone heavy team, bet on Deebo, but when they're playing a man heavy team, bet on Aiyuk. Well, there's no Aiyuk in this matchup, but Jennings has replaced Aiyuk as the top man coverage WR in this offence. He has played well this season, especially against man heavy teams. He has recorded 50+ receiving yards in five of his last seven games, eclipsing 90 yards in three of those matches. He is the highest graded 49ers receiver according to PFF grades and leads the team with a 25.3% target share. Jennings sees his catch rate, yards after catch per reception and yards per route run increase in man coverage instead of zone. Like Deebo, Jennings lines up all over the field, seeing 30% of his routes on the left, 35% in the slot and 35% on the right side. So, again, it's hard to find that most likely matchup for a CB. But, given he is the best receiver on his team against man coverage, seeing the highest target share, facing the second easiest WR matchup and facing the most man coverage heavy team, all signs should point to a big Jennings game.

Suggested Pick:
Jauan Jennings o64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE George Kittle
Had it not been for an amazing rookie year from Brock Bowers, Kittle would be the best TE in the league this season. He's become Purdy's favourite weapon, leading the team in receptions (68) and receiving yards (967) and is pushing to hit the 1,000 mark for the fifth time in his career. He does perform better against zone coverage, but is a close second in terms of PFF grade against man coverage as well. While being poor against opposing WRs, the Lions are one of the better teams at limiting opposing TEs. They allow the fewest receptions (3.7) and receiving yards (35.2) to the position. With that being said, Kittle isn't you typical TE. Kittle lines up inline on 56.7% of his routes. The Lions are good at limiting yards to inline receivers, allowing the third fewest, but that moves up to 11th fewest yards per reception and the fifth highest aDoT. Kittle has the highest yards per reception and second most yards after catch on the 49ers. We usually see him slip away in coverage and break off a big reception, against a team who often does to the position despite the difficult matchup. Kittle has logged a 25+ longest reception in eight of the last nine games.

Suggested Pick:
George Kittle o23.5 Longest Reception (-110)

I'm expecting a good game. The Lions are banged up, the 49ers want to play spoiler against a team they beat in the NFC Championship game last season. Detroit doesn't necessarily need this win, as next week is really all their worried about for the first seed in the NFC. Could we see this be a bit of a look ahead spot for the Lions? I don't know if I can fully back a Lions loss here, considering they only have two on the season, but I expect Purdy and the 49ers to keep this close.

Best Bet: Over 50.5 -125
Lean: 49ers +3.5 -120
Lions 30 - 49ers 27

Anytime TD Picks

Jahmyr Gibbs TD (-250)
It's a chalky pick, but there's a reason he has this line. The Lions are great at running the ball in the red zone, and Gibbs should receive all the work within the five. In his first game without Montgomery, he saw NINE red zone rush attempts. He's also scored 12 TDs in the last six games, and the 49ers are allowing 1.13 TDs to RBs per game.

Jauan Jennings TD (+162)
Jenning has only scored in one of his last three games, but had two in that game. With him being so dominant against man coverage, he should be the favourite option in the red zone for Purdy. The Lions are averaging near one TD per game to opposing WRs.

First Touchdown Picks

Jahmyr Gibbs First TD (+300)
The Lions have scored the first TD in 10 of their 15 games this season: Three for Montgomery, one from Williams and LaPorta and a whopping five from Gibbs. By that math, RBs in this offence have scored the first TD in eight of their 10 times. With no Montgomery, Gibbs should have a solid chance at scoring first, especially considering the 49ers have only scored first in four of their 15 games.

Parlay 1: +135 odds on bet365

Jahmyr Gibbs TD

Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ Rushing & Receiving

Amon-Ra St. Brown 6+ Receptions

Parlay 2: +140 odds on bet365

San Francisco 49ers +10.5

Brock Purdy 30+ Pass Attempts

Jauan Jennings 50+ Receiving Yards

Parlay 3: +2200 odds on bet365

Jahmyr Gibbs First TD

Jahmyr Gibbs 150+ Rushing & Receiving Yards

Jauan Jennings 80+ Receiving Yards