Rams vs Seahawks @4:25 EST

QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford found out what a difference his top 2 WR’s can make as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua’s return helped lift Stafford to a 4- touchdown game to lead L.A. past Minnesota in
week 8. The Rams hope their success will carry over this Sunday when they face Seattle on the road. The Seahawks run zone-coverage at a 65.3% rate. They play Cover 3 on 30.9% of their
snaps, and add in Cover 1-man 24.0% of the time. Stafford is 81 of 124 (65.3% CMP) for 997 yards vs these schemes, but when under pressure his completion percentage dips to a gaudy 46.9% (15-32 for 207 yards). This gives reason for concern when you consider SEA has the 11th highest Pressure-Rate (35.1%) in the NFL. However, this is where I expect Sean McVay to set Stafford up for success by utilizing the play-action pas, something he has done 26.3% of the
time. The Seahawks defense has struggled all year vs play-action, allowing a 72.4% completion rate (27th in NFL) and nearly 10.0 yards PPA (29th in NFL), and it’s gotten worse as the season
has worn on. Kyren Williams running game should help further open up Stafford’s play-action passing ability as well. Stafford’s total yards is set at just 239.5. The Seahawks have faced rookie Bo Nix (138 yds), journeyman Jacoby Brissett (149 yds) and Tua replacement Tim Boyle (79 yds), and all were held in check quite easily, but when going up against higher level QB’s, Jared Goff,Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins and even Daniel Jones all soared over this line. Stafford should too.

Suggested Pick
Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115)
ALT Passing Yards
250+ (+110)
275+ (+210)

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams has been one of the most utilized RB’s in the NFL. He ranks 3rd in the league in carries (139), and last week he had a season-high 28 touches, accounting for an 85.2% share of
the backfield load. This should be another great spot for the Rams feature back, especially the way opponents have been running the ball down the Seahawks throat as of late. In the past 5
weeks alone, Seattle has surrendered: Buffalo (142, 2 TD), Atlanta (156, 2 TD), San Francisco
(194, TD), NY Giants (133) and Detroit (118, 3 TD), and this is not even taking into account the number of rushing yards and TD’s given up to opposing QB’s from these teams. Now that Stafford has both of his WR’s back, the Seahawks will be forced to respect the passing game, and this should allow things to open up in the backfield even more than they already have.

Suggested Pick
Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
ALT Rushing Yards
110+ (+145)
120+ (+200)
Anytime TD (-210)
2+ TD’s (+265)

WR Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua returned to the lineup last week, and his impact was felt immediately. The Rams wide receiver caught 7 of his 9 targets for 106 yards to aid Matthew Stafford in L.A.’s win over the Vikings. Unfortunately, Puka suffered a slight setback with his knee in Thursday’s practice. The latest out of Rams camp is there’s nothing structurally wrong, and he is currently listed as questionable for now. According to head coach Sean McVay, his expectation is that Nacua will do everything in his power to be on the field this Sunday. When facing Cover 3 and Cover 1-man coverages Nacua has a 19.5% target-rate, where he’s hauled in 7 of 8 targets for 99 yards (14.1
YPR). Should he play, Puka will line up across from Tre Brown who has been targeted 17 times, where he’s allowed 11 receptions for 169 yards. You will want to monitor his status throughout the weekend, and until we know something definitive this is one of the rare times to lay low.

Suggested Pick
Pass

WR Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp rejoined Matthew Stafford a week ago Thursday and posted 5-51, TD against Minnesota. The Rams wide out will have a tougher matchup where he’s lining up, but Kupp’s value still remains high, especially if Nacua is either out or limited this Sunday. The Seahawks allows the 4th most YPT to receivers lined up in the slot. Under the assumption that Nacua plays, Kupp will be up against Devon Witherspoon in the slot, and he’s been taken advantage of
all season, allowing 32 catches on 42 targets for 271 yards. Most concerning is the number of yards Witherspoon is allowing after the catch, which has surpassed 50+ yards three times this season. With Puka potentially out or limited, I like Kupp to serve as a safety blanket for Stafford.

Suggested Pick
Over 5.5 receptions (-150)

WR Demarcus Robinson

In last Thursday’s game against Minnesota, Robinson had just 3 targets go his way. However, he made the most of them by catching 2 touchdowns. In fact, since last year when Robinson has
been on the field with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, he’s converted 5 out of 9 end zone targets for touchdowns, which ranks 2nd on the team. If Nacua is on the field, his yards/receptions props diminish greatly, but based on recent trends he is worth a sprinkle for an Anytime TD.

Suggested Pick
1+ TD (+250)

QB Geno Smith 

Geno Smith has been feast or famine for the better part of this season, and without D.K.  Metcalf at his side last week, he threw for just 212 yards, 0 TD’s and was picked off once. Early  in the week, Seattle was hopeful that D.K. would be able to suit up on Sunday, but it was  announced Friday afternoon that he will remain out with an MCL sprain, and will not return  until week 11 in San Francisco. With that said, it’s not looking good for Geno Smith, especially  when you consider how the Rams match up with Seattle QB. For starters, L.A. runs zone at a  73.3% rate with the majority coming out of Cover 3 (37.3%). Smith has completed just 15 of 30  passes for 179 yards with 0 TD and 3 INT this season. Now on to the really bad news. The Rams  have climbed into the top 10 of the NFL in terms of Pressure-Rate, where they are getting in the  face of the opposing quarterback 35.6% of the time. Much of this can be largely attributed to  the play of DL Jared Verse and Byron Young, who rank 2nd (20.8%) and 17th (15.3%) respectively  in rate of pressure on pass rush snaps, and when L.A. has allowed just a 43.9% completion rate  over its last 4 games. Now let’s switch gears to Geno Smith. When he is given the appropriate  amount of protection and is able to stand inside a clean pocket he ranks 10th, completing 78.5%  of his passes with 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s. However, this will not be the case on Sunday, and he ranks  29th in the NFL when facing pressure, where he’s completing just barely over 50% of his passes,  while throwing 4 TD’s to 7 INT’s. I love Smith’s line at -130 to throw a pick against the Rams. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130) 

WR Kenneth Walker III 

After rushing for 103 and 80 yards in his first two games of the season, Kenneth Walker III has  fallen on hard times. The Seattle RB has totaled just 132 yards in 4 games during the month of  October, and his opportunities are decreasing by the week. He had 22 touches in week 6, then 16 in week 7 and only 13 in week 8. And when Walker is getting the ball he’s not making the  most of it, averaging just 3.1 YPC. He will face a Rams team that is allowing 139.1 YPG on the  ground to opposing RB’s. They limited Aaron Jones to just 58 yards last week, but prior to that  given up rushing totals of 23-92 (Alexander Mattison), 19-73 (Josh Jacobs), 16-93 (D’Andre  Swift), 19-77 (Jordan Mason), 21-122 (James Connor) and 17-91 (David Montgomery). I think  there is a case to be made for Walker having a decent game here, but I don’t have enough trust  in Geno Smith to do what is necessary in the passing game in order to open things up more  Walker. It will be interesting to see how he performs, but the safest play here is to pass on him. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR Tyler Lockett 

With D.K. Metcalf already ruled out for Sunday’s game, Tyler Lockett will be forced to step into  the #1 WR role for the Seahawks. And, considering last week he caught just 1 of 3 targets with  Metcalf sidelined there’s not much reason for hope here. Lockett plays primarily as an outside receiver, and when facing Cover 3 defense he has caught 7 of 12 passes thrown his way for 97  yards. He will line up opposite CB Darious Williams, who has allowed 8 of 10 balls thrown his  way to be caught, however he’s allowed only 26 total YAC. Here is where the big problem  shows up for Lockett. When Geno Smith has been pressured, Lockett has only had one target in  all of ’24. Considering the Rams bring pressure on 35.6% of their snaps it’s hard to envision a  scenario where Lockett goes above the 57.5 yard plateau that’s been set for him this week. Still,  L.A. has the 2nd highest targets share to wide in ’24, and for that reason I’m not taking any  chances with either side of this line for Lockett since Metcalf is out. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 

This would have been a nice week to slide in get some great value on Jaxon Smith-Njigba with  D.K. Metcalf on the sideline, but his inability to produce good numbers against zone-coverage  makes him a no-go for the over on Sunday. But, that doesn’t mean we can’t attack the other  side of his line. Smith-Njigba averages a 24.1% target share vs man-coverage, but this drops  significantly to 17.6% when facing Cover 3, not to mention he’s averaging a miniscule 0.40 YPR  run against zone-coverages. The biggest factor here is that L.A. allows the fewest receiving YPG  in the NFL to slot receivers. This line is jacked up way too high, and I’ll be attacking the under!! 

Suggested Pick 
Under 56.5 Receiving Yards -125

TE A.J. Barner 

It’s hard to fathom that Seattle is 4-4 right now when you consider AJ. Barner is going to be  their 3rd best option in the receiving game, but with D.K. Metcalf and now Noah Fant sidelined this is the best the Seahawks have to offer. However, little as it may be, Barner has made the  most of his 10 total targets in ’24, catching all 10 for 105 yards and a TD. Also, 8 of his 10  catches have come against zone-coverage, and when Geno Smith has been pressured he’s  caught both of his passes. Barner could be a diamond in the rough this week against a Rams  team that allows 63.9 YPG to TE’s (7th most in NFL). Barner is similar to Noah Fant with regard  to both of them having good hands. I could see Geno relying on him big time in the pass game. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
ALT Receiving Yards
40+ (+255)
50+ (+420) 

Despite playing at home, it’s hard to put any stock in Seattle’s offense this week. It’s not a good matchup for Geno Smith, who struggles when facing pressure. They’ve gotten next to nothing out of the running game from Kenneth Walker III in the L4 weeks, and now the Seahawks will be without D.K. Metcalf and Noah Fant. Give me the Rams and a rejuvenated Matthew Stafford, who has Cooper Kupp back, and Puka Nacua will likely find a way to play on Sunday. 

Best Bet (Rams ML -120) 
Lean (Over 47.5 -114)
Rams 27 Seahawks 24