Lions vs Packers @4:25 EST

QB Jared Goff

Goff finds himself playing in an outdoor stadium for the first time this season. It is well known that Goff plays much better indoors than out. Indoors, he holds a 69% completion rate and a 104.0 quarterback rating. Outdoors, he dips to a 64.5 completion % and an 87.9 QB rating. GB has allowed yardage through the air this season, ranking 10th most at 235.6 passing yards per game. Goff and this Lions offense have been really efficient through the air, primarily thanks to setting up play action through the running game. This sets up well against a GB defense that has struggled more against play action this season. Without PA, they are allowing a 61% completion rate, 6.8 yards per attempt and a touchdown rate at 4.2%. Versus PA, they are allowing a 70.5% completion rate, 8.5 yards per attempt. Goff has crushed vs man coverage this season: 76.7% completion rate, 11.6 YPA, 7 TD’s to 0 INT’s, 154 passer rating, 76.7 1st read percentage and a 8.7 aDOT. He has struggled more against zone coverages: 73.8% comp rate, 8.35 YPA, 4 TD’s to 4 INT’s, 96 passer ratings, 65.2% 1st read % and a 6.9 aDOT. GB’s defense has run zone coverage at the 10th highest rate this season (72.8%). Of those 4 interceptions vs zone, three were against cover 3, which GB runs at the highest rate of all coverages (although, it’s popular zone coverage for most teams). Green Bay is forcing 1.3 interceptions per game this season (tied for 3rd most). Will Goff take advantage of play action against this defense or will he struggle against zone in an outdoor setting?

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions (+110)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs

How even is the split between Gibbs and Monty? How about exactly 50%? They have each played exactly 97 snaps and Monty has 93 carries to Gibbs’ 92. Gibbs primarily runs in zone - 61 attempts in zone to 27 in man/gap. GB allows a 46.0% success rate (20th) vs zone and a 47.7% vs man/gap (17th). Overall, GB has been good against the run this season, allowing 92.4 rushing yards per game to opposing RB’s (19th) and 0.63 rushing touchdowns (20th) per game. Gibbs ran for 54 and 40 rushing yards in two games against GB last season, but should be in for more work this year. Green Bay has also allowed the 7th highest explosive run percentage (6.3%), which fits Gibbs’ play-style. He also caught 4 balls in both meetings last season. This GB defense has allowed RB’s to rack up receiving yards, ranking 8th (38.3 YPG), along with a 10.5% checkdown rate (12th). We are very likely to see rain in this one, which should favor a heavy ground attack. The precipitation probability is 99% throughout the entire game to go along with moderate temperatures (~50 degrees Fahrenheit).

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions (-160)
Longest Rush ‘O’ 15.5 Yards (-120)

RB David Montgomery

Let’s talk about the other half of the 2-headed monster. Monty has also run in a zone scheme more than a man/gap scheme. However, Monty in general has run man/gap at a higher percentage than Gibbs this season, which makes sense given he’s the thumper. GB does own the 3rd highest stuff % (49.0%) of all teams this season. Monty owned this team last season, rushing for 192 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Monty has scored in 6 of 7 games this season, averaging 1 score per game. Dating back to last season, he has scored in 7 of his last 10 away games. Monty has also had 3+ receptions in 3 of 7 games and in 2 of 3 away games. He has surpassed his receiving yardage line in 4 of them, averaging 19.7 rec yards per game. Given the weather, I’m expecting good usage from Monty in this one.

Suggested Picks
1+ TD (-105)
‘O’ 65.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown hasn’t been as consistent as in years past, but it’s, in part, due to an overall lower passing volume by this DET offense. In 6 games against this GB defense in his career, he has only crossed 60 receiving yards twice. In 3 games in GB, he has never crossed 60 receiving yards. What’s interesting is St. Brown gets much heavier looks against zone than man. While owning a 14.9% target share and 9.6% team yardage share vs man, he has a 29.2% target share and 28.3% team yardage share vs zone. A big part of this read is Jaire Alexander, who is GB’s top cornerback and can shadow team’s number one WR at times. He suffered a knee injury at the end of last week and hasn’t practiced so far this week. He’s officially listed as questionable. If I’m making a play here, I’m likely waiting to see the status of Alexander.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 6.5 Receptions (-132) - If Alexander Plays
‘U’ 70.5 Receiving Yards (-114) - If Alexander Plays

WR Kalif Raymond

On top of Williams now being in trouble with a potential gun charge, he’s also missing this game with a suspension for PED’s. Raymond appears to be the guy to benefit the most with Williams out. Despite only 85 passing yards from Goff, Raymond still caught a pair of balls for 14 yards and a touchdown. He also returned a punt for a 90-yards touchdown. GB does rank 30th in 1st-read percentage and LaPorta and Raymond should be in line for the 2nd read. Raymond ran half of his limited routes out of the slot last weekend when Brown wasn’t there. GB has allowed the 6th most receptions out of the slot this season. Let’s keep an eye on if Jaire plays, but Raymond might be a sneaky look this weekend.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 19.5 Receiving Yards (-106)

TE Sam LaPorta

We called LaPorta being more involved last week and it happened, despite a low passing volume day from the passing game. With Williams out, LaPorta might be the pass catcher that benefits most now that we’ve seen his snap count get above 90%. GB has been susceptible to TE’s this season, allowing the 6th most yards per game and 5th most receptions. We’ve seen LaPorta’s line jump after a successful week and his yardage line is up as high as 45.5. I expect LaPorta to be Goff’s outlet again in this one, especially if we find ourselves in a competitive game. His LR is listed at 17.5, which despite the low target share, he’s crossed in 6 of 7 this season. He also had 30+ receiving catches in both games vs GB last season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions (-150)
‘O’ Long Reception 17.5 (-120)

QB Malik Willis

Love is questionable for this one, but it looks more likely he will sit. Willis has been serviceable in his absence with both his arm and his legs. He’s still not close to Love and GB will likely run a conservative offense if he’s under center. In his 2 starts this season, he’s thrown for 202 and 122 with a TD in each. Despite DET allowing the 5th most passing yards allowed per game, I can’t rely on Willis to produce a big number in this one. If they keep this game close I don’t think Willis will be slinging it. We don’t have lines yet, but I’d be looking at rushing yards in this one. Willis has 6 carries in each start with 41 and 73 yards, respectively. Even when he came in for Love last week, he had 4 carries for 23 yards. If we can get a line in the mid-30’s, it’s worth a look. What’s nice about QB rushing, is it’s kind of game script-proof. As long as the ball is in the QB’s hands, he is a threat to run. Given the rain, it’s more of a reason to look at the rushing here.

Suggest Picks
‘O’ Rushing Yards (when posted)

RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is questionable for this game, but is expected to play. We don’t have lines for him yet, likely given the unknown QB situation. Jacobs holds a pretty high floor as the clear workhorse in this backfield. He’s had 50+ rushing yards in 7 of 8 games and 16+ carries in 5 of them. As a receiver out of the backfield, he hasn’t been as consistent. He has less than 3 targets in 3 of 8, but 20+ receiving yards in 4 of 8. Detroit has been excellent against the run this season, ranking 3rd fewest in rushing yards allowed to RB’s (71.1/game). With that being said, without Huchinson there is some worry for this defense. We just saw Pollard carve up this defense with a bad O-line for 94 yards on 20 carries. That’s a season-high for Pollard. I think this DET run defense is more exploitable now without Hutch and be wary of those jumping on unders regardless of who is at QB.

Suggested Picks
Depending on the line, look at over rushing yards and Rush Att

WR Jayden Reed

Here’s a guy I really like this week. Reed is a swiss-army knife type player, but runs a lot out of the slot. DET is allowing THE MOST yards, receptions and targets to the slot this season. They almost own 20 more targets to the slot than the next team on the list. Reed is running out of the slot at almost an 80% clip. If we look past the TEN game, Jalen Nailor out of the slot recorded 4 catches on 5 targets for 76 yards. I think this is where you attack this secondary and Reed is already the WR1 in this offense. You always have to look at R+R for Reed since he does get work in the rushing game with little extra cost. He holds 119 rushing yards on the season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ R+R Yards (when released)
ALT Rec Yds 
50+ +125
70+ +310
80+ +475

WR Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson

It’s going to depend on who's at QB. With that being said I’m likely avoiding both if it’s Willis. If it’s Love, due to his re-injury risk, I’m still avoiding it. Watson only has more than 3 receptions in 1 game this season. It was last week, but none of the targets were from Willis. He’s a big play threat that could hurt his hamstring at any moment. Doubs is less of a deep threat and more of a possession WR. I say that, but he still holds a solid 13.3 aDOT, which is good for 4th on the team. Again, QB is going to play a roll, but I think he’s worth avoiding regardless of if we get a less than 100% Love or Malik.

Suggested Picks
Pass

TE Tucker Kraft

Kraft continues to be a staple regardless of who is at QB. Malik came in and threw a TD to Kraft on his second drive. Kraft has exactly 2 receptions in each of Willis’ two starts. DET is allowing the second fewest receiving yards to TE per game (30.0/game) and third fewest receptions per game (3.57/game). Regardless of who's at QB this is an under or pass for me.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ Receptions

This is tough without knowing who’s at QB and the health of several players on these teams, especially the Packers. However, I think you gotta take the Packers here. They are at home and outdoors vs a Hutchinson-less defense. I think Willis is serviceable and can keep them in this game. Gimme the +3.5 with the Pack at home. Honestly, I could see them winning this game outright, but they need to provide enough offense. Lions have scored 30+ points in 4 straight games 

Best Bet (Packers +3.5 -125)
Lean (Over 45.5 -155)
Lions 24 Packers 27