Jaguars vs Eagles @4:05 EST

QB Trevor Lawrence

The Eagles are allowing the 5th fewest passing yards per game this season. After being an absolute laughing stock of a coverage unit last season, they rank 6th in coverage grading, according to PFF. They also do A good job on offense controlling the game/clock with the rushing attack. The concern is the line is low. Tevor has been under 200 passing yards in 4 of 8 games this season. He doesn’t have Kirk and might also be without B-Thomp. Trevor has turned over the ball in 4 of his L6 games, but could easily see a more conservative passing attack without their top weapons. PHI ranks 12th in turnover-worthy play rate, but with a conservative gameplan that is heavily controlled by the PHI rushing attack, I see value in this INT under.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions (+120)

RB Travis Etienne

Truly questionable for this game. We currently don’t have a rushing line for either RB. Looks like he may be a game time decision. PHI continues to be stingy against the run, allowing the 20th most rushing yards per game this season. Not a line I’m dying to take an over on and Bigsby has clearly earned a share of this backfield. PHI has allowed the 13th most receptions ot RB’s this season, so I’ll take a look at that line once it drops and Etienne is rule in, but he is mostly a stay-away for me. Not to mention hamstring injuries are easily re-aggravated. 

Suggested Picks
Pass

RB Tank Bigsby

Bigsby is the runner I’m most interested in, but again, we don’t have a line up yet. PHI is not a great target for RB’s and it’s unclear how involved Etienne will be if ruled in. Tank has been fun this season, but has only been able to take advantage of great matchups, while struggling in tougher ones. PHI is not a great matchup and I could easily see a negative game script here. Tank is also dealing with his own injury, an ankle injury. He’s an avoid for me at this point.

Suggested Picks
Pass

WR Brian Thompson Jr.

Speaking of questionable, here’s another guy! I honestly don’t think he plays this week so I won’t spend too much time on him, Thomas is an electric player and truly profiles as a future WR1 IMO. He has 60+ receiving yards in 4 of his L5 and a touchdown in 4 of those games as well. He’s on his way to being an elite player in this league and showing the next coach can build around (him and Trevor). This is not the week though. PHI’s coverage is good and Brian likely doesn’t play. If he does, you have to worry about limitations and possibly a re-aggravation of his chest injury.

Suggested Picks
Pass

TE Evan Engram

Now, here’s a guy you can likely count on as a center-piece of this passing attack. Engram has 4+ receptions in each of his L3 games, with a 10-reception game against Chicago. PHI allows the 4th fewest yards per game and 6th fewest receptions per game to opposing TE’s this season. I still think receptions are worth a look, especially if Thomas is out. Tevor is going to throw some and Engram should be the one piece that is involved. Despite missing 4 games, Engram still lands 3rd in total receptions of the season for JAX.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions (when it’s released)

QB Jalen Hurts

You can’t trust this man to throw the ball consistently. He’s had 4 games of 230+ passing yards, but also 3 games of 185 or less passing yards. The good news is that in games with AJ Brown, Hurts is over in 3 of 4 this season in passing yards. To be honest, I can’t trust him and even though I think they win, I could see it happening mostly on the ground. Hurts also only has 2 TD’s in 2 of 7 games this season. Having AJ helps, but I can’t slam an over there. As a rusher, he’s only crossed his rushing line once in 7 starts. However he has at least 1 TD in 3 of his L4, with 5 TD’s on his last 2 games. Whether it be with rushing or with the ‘tush push’, Hurts TD seems like the safest bet on the board for him.

Suggest Picks
1+ TD (+100)

RB Saquon Barkley

Saquon has been so good this season. He has eclipsed his rushing mark in 5 of 7 this season. JAX has allowed the 7th fewest rushing yards this season, averaging 82 rushing yards per game. Barkley has had 17+ carries in 6 of 7 this season. The matchup isn’t great, but I can’t fade a talent like Barkley in what could be a positive game script. As for receiving yards, we’ve seen Saquon receiving work dips of late. After having 4+ targets in the first 3 of 4 weeks, he has had 3 or fewer in the last 3. He just hasn’t been a receiving bet of late and he may not need to be in this one. What‘s interesting is that JAX does allow the 4th highest running back target share this season (18.3%). I’m still not buying it. I don’t think they’ll need it in this one with a fully healthy receiving core (besides Goedert).

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 13.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

WR A.J. Brown

This is such a nice spot for AJ. Not only is he averaging 102 receiving yards per game and has a TD in 3 of 4, but also gets a really nice matchup for his skill set. The Jags run man coverage at the 2nd highest rate this season. AJ owns a league-leading 14.9 aDOT with at least 30 routes run, a 63.5% AY share, a 40% target share and 45.5 receiving yards per game. TLDR: he dominates man coverage. He also owns a 5.35 YPRR and 15.17 YPT with a 20.22 yards per reception and a pair of TD’s. The 1st read % in man is an incredible 50%! Do not fade this man in this matchup.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 77.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
1+ TD (+120)

WR DeVonta Smith

If we like AJ and don’t know what to think of Hurts, can we possibly like Smith? With AJ he’s still had 60+ receiving yards in 3 of 4 this season, while falling under 4.5 receptions in 2 of 4. Smith runs out of the slot the most of this Philly WR core, around a 60% rate. JAX is allowing the 9th most receiving yards to the slot WR and 8th most receptions, but allowing the 18th highest yards per target. It seems like a reception prop or avoid for me in this one. I’ll choose to pass.

Suggested Pick
PASS

I like the Eagles to get out to an early lead coming off their BYE and never look back. The defense has been improving and JAX looks like a team in shambles waiving the white flag. They sent off their starting tackle Cam Ronbinson and the turmoil between the coach and players looks evident. PHI has struggled at times this season, but I think they come away with an effortless win here.

Best Bet (Eagles -6.5 -140)
Lean (Under 46.5 -110)
Eagles 27 Jaguars 17