Bears Team Overview
QB Caleb Williams
The rookie #1 pick is averaging 206.9 pass yards per game, thrown for 9 TDs and 5 interceptions. He has also used his legs, averaging 30 yards per game on the ground. He will face a Cardinals defense that has the 5th lowest pressure rate over expectations Arizona has allowed the 7th most passing yards and are middle in the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs. Looking at their defensive scheme, nothing jumps out. They run single-high 54.6% of the time and have a 70.4% zone tendency. These are both around the middle of the pack. The one split worth looking into is how Caleb does when he’s not pressured. When not pressured, he’s averaging 7.11 YPA and has a 99.1 QB rating. This is an extreme split compared to when he is pressured, where he averages 4.36 YPA and has a 38.6 QB rating. I lean towards him getting back on track after a heartbreaker against the Commanders last week.
Suggested Pick
“O” 222.5 Pass Yds (-115)
“O” 1.5 Pass TDs (+160)
RB De’Andre Swift
After a rough first 3 weeks where he was unable to surpass over 30 rush yards, Swift has come alive. He is averaging 5.36 YPC and has rushed for 4 TDs. He will face a Cardinals defense that has allowed 4.62 YPC, 12th most. It’s interesting to note that the Cardinals have allowed 5.35 YPC when the opposing QB is in shotgun, compared to 3.87 YPC when the opposing QB is under center. 41 of Swift’s attempts have come when Caleb is in shotgun, where he’s averaging 4.9 YPC. That compares to 65 attempts under center, where he’s averaging 4.0 YPC. The big difference as of late has been his opportunities. He’s averaging 18 attempts L4, compared to 12.3 in his first 3 games. Since the beginning of 2021, Swift is averaging 97.4 rush yards per game when he sees 15+ carries. The other aspect to look at matchup wise is in the receiving game. The Cardinals have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to opposing RBs (37.38 YPG). Swift has some upside as a capable receiving back. Swift has also scored a TD in 4 straight games.
Suggested Pick
“O” 90.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-114)
Anytime TD (+105)
WR DJ Moore
Moore is averaging 48.7 receiving yards per game and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. He has the highest 1st-read rate on the bears (27.7%). The Cardinals as a team are allowing the 7th most receiving yards to opposing WRs. The Cardinals have the 5th lowest pressure rate over expectations. Moore sees a target on 27% of his routes when Caleb is operating from a clean pocket. Looking at pre-snap alignment, Moore has lined up outside on 74.8% of his routes. The Cardinals are allowing the 9th lowest target share to wide alignment (36.9%). The Cardinals also allow the lowest 1st-read rate, meaning the opposing first option is usually taken away.
Suggested Pick
“U” 54.5 Rec Yds (-114)
WR Rome Odunze
Odunze is averaging 41 receiving yards per game and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. On the season, he has a 1st-read target share of 19.1%, lowest of the top 3 Bears receivers. However, out of the bye last week, he did lead the Bears in 1st-read target share (30.8%). Post bye is typically when the light turns on for talented rookie WRs. The Cardinals have the 5th lowest pressure rate over expectations. Odunze has been targeted on 23% of his routes when Caleb is not pressured and has a higher YPRR than Moore (2.25 vs 1.91). Looking at pre-snap alignment, on the season he has lined up out wide 65.2% of the time and in the slot 34.3%. However, last week he saw a slot rate of 41.7%. The Cardinals are middle of the pack in opposing slot target rate but have allowed the 9th lowest wideout target rate. He has put together 3 straight 40+ receiving yard games. His 35.5 Rec Yd line is low for a guy that seems to be trending up. These are spots where I like to target ladders, as he likely flies a bit under the radar in opposing scouting reports, with guys like Keenan Allen and DJ Moore getting the attention. This could be a changing of the guard, he has looked excellent on tape.
Suggested Pick
“O” 35.5 Rec Yds (-114)
50+ Rec Yds (+210)
60+ Rec Yds (+350)
70+ Rec Yds (+550)
80+ Rec Yds (+800)
WR Keenan Allen
Keenan is averaging 32.2 receiving yards per game, but he’s had his best production of the year the past 2 games with 41 and 39 receiving yards respectively. He has a 1st-read rate of 25.9%, slightly below DJ Moore. He has lined up in the slot on 50% of his routes. The Cardinals are middle of the pack in opposing slot target rate but have allowed the 9th lowest wideout target rate. The Cardinals have the 5th lowest pressure rate over expectations. Keenan averages 1.65 YPRR when Caleb is operating in a clean pocket (4th highest), but he does lead the team in targets per route run (30%). Despite 6.4 targets per game, the connection with Caleb has not been great. He is only averaging 3.4 receptions with that volume. Keenan is towards the back end of his career, and this feels more like a turning of the guard towards younger more explosive players like Odunze and DJ Moore.
Suggested Pick
“U” 46.5 Rec Yds (-114)
TE Cole Kmet
Kmet has quietly had a great season, averaging 43.3 receiving yards per game and leading the Bears in YPRR (2.10). He has only run a route on 54.5% of dropbacks, as he spends almost half of his time as a blocker. 52.8% of his routes come from the slot, and 32.6% of his routes come from inline. The Cardinals are allowing the 2nd highest target share to inline and are middle of the pack in terms of target share to the slot. The Cardinals have the 5th lowest pressure rate over expectations. When Caleb is operating in a clean pocket, Kmet leads the Bears in YPRR (2.30) and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. Kmet’s receiving line is only 28.5. He has hit this in 4 of L5, with his most recent game going under. I like this bounce back spot.
Suggested Pick
“O” 28.5 Rec Yds (-114)
Cardinals Team Overview
QB Kyler Murray
Kyler is averaging 204.8 passing yards per game, 7.06 YPA, and 11 TDs on the season. He’s also done damage on the ground, averaging 43 rush yards per game. He’ll face a Chicago defense that allows the 12th lowest passing yards per attempt (6.81) and the least passing TDs (5). The Bears rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. They run the 5th highest rate of single-high (59.8%) and the 6th highest rate of zone (74.7%). They are also around the middle of the pack in rush yards allowed to opposing QBs. When pressured, Murray averages 5.67 YPA and a surprisingly good 98.9 QB rating. That compares to 7.43 YPA and a 97.7 QB rating when not pressured. He’s another dual threat QB that likes to use his legs when pressured, as he’s scrambled 17 times for 192 yards and a TD. Against single-high, Kyler averages 7.5 YPA and has a QB rating of 102.5. Against zone, he averages 7.76 YPA and has a 96.1 QB rating. From a scheme perspective, the matchup looks pretty good. However, the coverage defense overall is one of the best. His current passing line is 215.5 and his rushing line is 34.5. Daniels did just run for 52 rush yards last week against CHI. I’d lean under on passing and over on rushing.
Suggested Pick
“U” 215.5 Pass Yds (-115)
“O” 34.5 Rush Yds (-109)
RB James Conner
Conner is averaging 69.6 rush yards per game on 4.32 YPC. He has also added 4 rush TDs on the season. He’ll face a CHI defense that is allowing the 10th most YPC (4.72). Conner has primarily run in man/gap concepts (69.8% of his attempts), averaging 4.03 YPC. In zone concepts, despite lower volume, he’s been more productive, averaging 4.84 YPC. Chicago allows the 13th most YPC against zone concept runs (4.51) and the 11th most YPC against man/gap concepts (5.00). Looking at opposing QB positioning, when they are in shotgun, the Bears are allowing 5.11 YPC, compared to 3.67 YPC when they are under center. Conner has 129 attempts out of shotgun formation, compared to only 57 attempts under center. With the game having a spread of 1.5, this should be a neutral game script. In a neutral game script, the Cardinals run the ball 44% of the time, 9th highest in the NFL.
Suggested Pick
“O” 67.5 Rush Yds (-114)
WR Marvin Harrison
The first WR taken in the NFL draft this past offseason, Marv has averaged 1.99 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. He is 2nd on the team in 1st read rate (26.6%) behind Trey McBride. The Bears are middle of the pack in receiving yards to opposing WRs. The Bears rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. They run the 5th highest rate of single-high (59.8%) and the 6th highest rate of zone (74.7%). When Kyler is pressured, Marv’s YPRR drops to 1.35 and his TPRR drops to 15%. Against single-high, Harrison does have positive splits, averaging 2.92 YPRR and 29% TPRR. Further looking at zone splits, his YPRR drops to 1.8 and TPRR drops to 20%. Sort of a mixed bag in terms of scheme matchup. Looking at pre-snap alignment, Marv has lined up out wide 72.9% of the time. However, in the past 2 weeks his slot rate has increased to 33.3%, they are starting to move him around. The Bears allow the 8th highest target share to wide alignment and the 14th highest target share to the slot. Despite a 111 receiving yard game vs the Dolphins last week, this is not a spot I want to target for the rookie WR.
Suggested Pick
“U” 51.5 Rec Yds (-115)
WR Michael Wilson
Wilson is averaging 35.4 receiving yards per game, 1.30 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. He’s 3rd on the team in 1st-read rate (20.3%), behind Marv and Trey McBride. Looking at pre-snap alignment, he has lined up out wide on 70.6% of his routes. The Bears are allowing the 8th highest target share to wide alignment. The Bears run the 5th highest rate of single-high (59.8%) and the 6th highest rate of zone (74.7%). Against single-high, Wilson averages 1.35 YPRR and TPRR of 15%, a mixed split. Against zone, he averages 1.54 YPRR and TPRR of 18%, a slightly positive split. His line is currently set at 31.5, which he is under in 5 of 7 games when Marv and Trey McBride play.
Suggested Pick
“U” 31.5 Rec Yds (-110)
TE Trey McBride
McBride is averaging 63.7 receiving yards per game, 2.26 YPRR and has been targeted on 27% of his routes. He leads the Cardinals receivers in 1st-read rate (29.1%). He’ll face a Bears defense that allows the 12th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. Trey has lined up in the slot on 54.8% of his routes, and 39.6% from inline. The Bears allow the 14th highest target rate to the slot and 13th highest to inline. The Bears run the 5th highest rate of single-high (59.8%) and the 6th highest rate of zone (74.7%). Against single-high, Trey’s YPRR increases to 2.75 and TPRR increases to 28%. Against zone coverage, his YPRR increases to 2.65 and his TPRR to 30%. On the margin, this is an above average matchup.
Suggested Pick
“O” 52.5 Rec Yds (-117)
Game Prediction
Despite the Cardinals being at home and winning 2 straight, I like the Bears to bounce back after a demoralizing loss last week in the last seconds of the game, with Jayden Daniels' Hail Mary. Their defense is light years ahead of Arizona, and I think offensively they are even. The Cardinals have won back-to-back games by a combined 3 points, I think their luck dries up against what I believe to be a pretty good Bears football team.
Best Bet (Bears ML +105)
Lean (Under 44.5 -110)
Bears 24 Cardinals 20