Patriots Team Overview
QB Drake Maye
In his 2 healthy games, Maye has thrown for 243 yards and 276 yards respectively. He also has 5 total passing TDs. He faces a Titans defense that allows the least passing yards per game to opposing QBs (167.14). In terms of pressure, they are right around league average, ranking 18th in pressure rate over expectations. Looking at their defensive scheme, they are balanced. They run man defense 30.4% of the time (11th highest) and run a 50-50 split between single-high and two-high. Their top 2 coverages are Cover 3 (27.1% frequency) and Cover 4 (23.4% frequency). There’s not a lot of data to go by for Maye, but he averages 4.22 YPA and a 69.1 QB rating vs their top 2 coverages. Maye has also shown some promise in the run game. He ran for 38 yards in his first start against Houston and ran for 46 yards before getting injured vs the Jets last week. The Titans allow the 13th least rushing yards to QB. No screaming read to focus on here.
Suggested Play
“O” 200.5 Pass Yds (-115)
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
The Patriots RB depth chart has been confusing. At one point in the season, coach Mayo decided to start Gibson because of Rhamondre’s fumble issues. Gibson never meaningfully out snapped Rhamondre, even in his start. Last week was promising for Rhamondre, as he saw an 81% snap share and 20 rush attempts. He is averaging 60.3 rush yards per game, 4.06 YPC and has 5 rushing TDs. The Titans have been decent against the run, allowing the 10th fewest yards per attempt (4.31). Most of the production against them has come on explosive plays (41.5% of yards), 3rd highest explosive yards rate in the NFL. Only 23.7% of Stevenson’s yards have been from explosive runs, 13th lowest amongst RBs with 50+ attempts. Rhamondre has been much better in man/gap run concepts. He averages 4.62 YPC and a 54.1% success rate (58.7% of attempts). That compares to 3.26 YPC and a 41.9% success rate in zone concepts (41.3% of attempts). The Titans, however, are stronger against Stevenson’s strength. They allow the 5th lowest YPC against man/gap concepts (3.26). With the Titans being 3.5-point favorites, this might be a spot to fade Stevenson.
Suggested Pick
“U” 55.5 Rush Yds (-115)
WR Demario Douglas
Demario leads the Patriots WRs, averaging a pedestrian 33.9 receiving yards per game, averaging 1.43 YPRR and a target on 19% of his routes. He has a 1st-read rate of 19.6%, highest on the Patriots. He has operated as the underneath guy, with the lowest aDOT amongst the Patriots starting 3 WRs (6.6). The Titans allow the 3rd least receiving yards to opposing WRs. However, the Titans allow the 3rd highest target share to the slot (38.2%). Douglas plays from the slot on 81.6% of his routes. The Titans top 2 coverages are Cover 3 (27.1% frequency) and Cover 4 (23.4% frequency). Douglas is 2nd on the Patriots in YPRR against these 2 coverages (1.47), and 1st in TPRR (21%).
Suggested Pick
“O” 3.5 Receptions (+120)
WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Polk averages 11.1 receiving yards per game, averages 0.48 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. Polk has lined up out wide on 86% of his routes. The Titans have allowed the 10th lowest target share to wide aligned WRs (38.2%). The Titans allow the 3rd least receiving yards to opposing WRs. The Titans top 2 coverages are Cover 3 (27.1% frequency) and Cover 4 (23.4% frequency). Polk is 6th on the Patriots in YPRR against these 2 coverages (0.62). Polk saw his snap share increase to 80%+ in weeks 4 and 5 due to injuries, but since then, it has come back down to 50-70%. Not enough volume to trust Polk in a tough matchup.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Kayshon Boutte
Boutte averages 30.8 receiving yards per game, averages 1.4 YPRR and has been targeted on 12% of his routes. He has operated more as a deep threat, with the highest aDOT amongst the Patriots top 3 receivers (15.3). Boutte has lined up out wide on 88.6% of his routes. The Titans have allowed the 10th lowest target share to wide aligned WRs (38.2%). The Titans top 2 coverages are Cover 3 (27.1% frequency) and Cover 4 (23.4% frequency). Boutte is 4th on the Patriots in YPRR against these 2 coverages (1.10). Boutte has seen a steady 80%+ snap share in the past 3 weeks. It’s clear he has earned coach Mayo’s trust.
Suggested Pick
Lean “O” Rec Yds (no line to judge yet)
TE Hunter Henry
Henry leads the Patriots in receiving, averaging 44.8 YPG, averaging 1.67 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. Henry has lined up from the slot on 57.2% of his routes, and inline on 35.8% of is routes. The Titans allow the 3rd highest target share to the slot (38.2%) and are middle of the pack in target share to inline (11.2%). They allow the 3rd lowest receiving yards to opposing TEs overall. The Titans top 2 coverages are Cover 3 (27.1% frequency) and Cover 4 (23.4% frequency). Henry leads the Patriots in YPRR against these 2 coverages (1.82). In Maye’s 2 full starts, Henry has 41 and 92 receiving yards on a respective 5 and 9 targets. The connection is there with the rookie QB.
Suggested Pick
“O” 37.5 Rec Yds (-115)
50+ Rec Yds (+165)
Titans Team Overview
QB Will Levis
Levis has practiced in a limited fashion in 2 straight days. Offensive coordinator Nick Holz confirmed that once the Titans are convinced Levis is fully healthy, the starting job belongs to him. If Levis does start, this would downgrade all offensive weapons for the Titans. Levis has not played well, averaging 139.8 yards per game, 5.59 YPA, 5 passing TDs and 7 interceptions. He will face a Patriots defense that allows the 12th most passing yards to opposing QBs. The Patriots defense has the 6th lowest pressure rate over expectations. They play the 5th highest rate of man coverage (37.6%) and have a 50-50 split between single-high and two-high. When operating from a clean pocket, Levis is averaging 6.01 YPA and has an 82.7 QB rating. He has really struggled under pressure, averaging 4.21 YPA and has a 34.6 QB rating. Considering the Patriots don’t pressure much, this is good news for Levis. Against man coverage, Levis does have negative splits, averaging 4.95 YPA and has a QB rating of 37.3.
Suggested Pick
Lean “U” Passing Yds (no line to judge yet)
RB Tony Pollard
Tyjae Spears has not played in a game since week 6 and he just missed practice on Thursday. Looks like Pollard will once again play the bell cow role for the Titans. He had an 89% and 82% snap share weeks 7 and 8. He has seen heavy volume, with 16 and 20 rush attempts respectively, also adding in 6 and 4 targets in the passing game. On the season, Pollard averages 70.6 rush yards per game, 4.33 YPC and 3 rush TDs. He also averages 15.6 receiving yards per game. The Patriots are middle of the pack in terms of yards per carry allowed (4.51). An interesting split to look at is QB positioning. The Patriots allow the 3rd least YPC out of shotgun formation, but the 9th highest out when the opposing QB is under-center. Pollard averages only 3.68 YPC in under-center formation, compared to 5.5 YPC in the shotgun. Despite the heavy volume, I’d lean Pollard under rush yards.
Suggested Pick
“U” 71.5 Rush Yds (-120)
WR Calvin Ridley
Last week was the first week without DHop, and Ridley was unleashed. He had over 100 receiving yards in the first quarter and ended with 10 receptions for 143 yards. However, this was in a smash matchup against the Lions. Now with the possibility of Will Levis being back, my expectations are not high for a repeat performance. Prior to last week’s outlier, Ridley has averaged 1.14 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. That has resulted in only 30.5 receiving yards per game. He will likely be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez. Ridley has lined up out wide on 79.4% of his routes. The Patriots are allowing the 8th most YPRR to wide aligned WRs (2.18). His line is not up yet, likely because of the QB question mark. If Levis starts and the line looks like a bit of an overreaction to last week, I’d take his under.
Suggested Pick
“U” Rec Yds (line not up)
WR Westbrook-Ikhine
This past week was the first post DeAndre Hopkins trade. Westbrook-Ikhine ran a route on 92.9% of the Titans drop backs last week, equivalent to Calvin Ridley. Prior to that, he had yet to see a route rate participation above 50%. He caught 2 receptions for 39 yards and a TD as a result. That was against a Lions defense that has gotten torched in the air. The Lions allow the most receiving yards to opposing WRs, whereas the Patriots allow the 8th most. On the season, Wesbrook-Ikhine has lined up out wide on 72.9% of his routes. The Patriots are allowing the 8th most YPRR to wide aligned WRs (2.18). This Titans passing offense is too much of a question mark, especially with the possibility of Levis coming back.
Suggested Pick
Pass
TE Chig Okonkwo
Chig is averaging 17.3 receiving yards per game and has been targeted on 16% of his routes. His route rate has been 53.1%, which is important because he splits time with their other TE, Josh Whyle, who only has a 28.9% route rate. 39% of Chig’s routes have come from inline and 38.2% have come from the slot. The Patriots allow the 9th highest target share to the slot and the 7th lowest target share to inline. Last week was the first week without DHop, and as a result, Okonkwo saw his highest route share (66.7%). He was only able to produce 14 receiving yards, however. Again, this is a passing offense that I want to avoid.
Suggested Pick
Pass (line not out to judge)
Game Prediction
A battle of 2 struggling teams, with the Patriots 2-6 and the Titans 1-6. It comes down to which QB I trust more. In 2 full games, I have seen some promising signs from Drake Maye. On the other side, Will Levis seems to make extremely questionable decisions every week he plays. Tony Pollard is the Titans best weapon on offense, and based on the splits highlighted in my writeup, I think Pollard could struggle. Should be an ugly game!
Best Bet (Patriots +3.5 -120)
Lean (Under 38.5 -125)
Patriots 20 Titans 17