Cowboys vs Falcons @1:00 EST

Cowboys Team Overview

QB Dak Prescott

Dak has not been great this season, but it's likely in part to his poor pass blocking and lack of run game. The Cowboys offensive line ranks 28th in pass blocking and 21st in run blocking. The pressure is clearing affecting Dak, who's throw multiple interceptions in three straight games (first time he's done that in his career). Now, this is a matchup where Dak could find success. ALT does not do a good job of getting pressure. They rank 29th in pressure rate, grade out as the 31st best pass rushing unit and are ranked last in sack rate (just over 2%). ATL has also allowed the highest completion % to opposing QBs this season at 72.5%. This has the making for a good Dak game.

Suggest Picks
‘O’ 265.5 Passing Yards (-110)
‘O’ 1.5 TD Passes (-128)
‘O’ 24.5 Completions (-120)

 

RB Rico Dowdle/Zeke/Cook

IDK man. We have officially entered the wheel of Cowboys RB’s. Zeke and Cook handled the workload last week with Dowdle out with a sickness. Dowdle should regain the role as the lead back, but he’s only averaging a 4.2 yards per attempt this season. Zeke clearly looks like a ghost of his older self and simply a powerback for short-yardage situations and potentially a pass blocker. Cook entered the fray last week 6 carries for 12 yards and a catch for 10 yards. The truth is, I don't know how this pans out. So it’s likely a stay-away for me, which stinks given that ATL has allowed the 12th most rushing yards per game this season and the 28th highest stuff percentage this season.

Suggested Picks
PASS

 

WR CeeDee Lamb

LOVE this spot for CeeDee coming off a statement game for him. Despite a very disappointing season for DAL, he still has yet to finish below 60 receiving yards in a game. He’s cleared 86 receiving yards in 4 of 7 this season and has had 4 total TD’s. The floor is just so high for this talented WR. He has 7+ targets in every game this season and is averaging over 10 targets per game. ATL runs zone at the 32rd highest rate this season (76.3%) with a ton of Cover 3 coverage. Lamb is better against  man (as most elite WR’s are), but he’s still great vs zone too with a 8.6 aDOT, 23.9% target share and 9,.44 yards per reception. WR1’s have fared well vs ATL: Metcalf (4 for 99, TD), Johnson (6 for 78, TD), Evans (5 for 62, 2 TD), Olave (8 for 87), Rice (12 for 110, TD), Smith (7 for 76, TD) and Pickens (6 for 85). No reason to think Lamb doesn’t eat again this weekend as the Boys look to grab a win on the road.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 85.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Anytime Touchdown (+100)

 

TE Jake Ferguson

Fergy continues to not have great production, but is still an integral part of this passing game. Despite having under 25 receiving yards in 2 of his last 3, he’s still had 6+ receptions in 4 of his L5 with 7+ targets in all 4. He has yet to have a touchdown this season, despite having 6 redzone targets this season! ARI is allowing the 15th most receiving yards per game to opposing TE’s and 16th most receptions. He’s really the number two pass catcher in this offense and it feels like a big game is coming soon. It feels like this is his week to break into the endzone. The RZ target share is just too good!

Suggested Picks
1+ TD (+220)



Falcons Team Overview

QB Kirk Cousins

This game might have some shootout potential. Unlike ATL’s defense, the boys do create a pass rush, but Parson will be missing again this week. DAL ranks 12th in pass rush defense this season. Kirk is a very different QB when under pressure and not. He owns a 110 passer rating and 72% completion rate while not under pressure. Compared to a 70.4 QBR and 60% comp rate. Of his 14 touchdowns, 10 have come while not under pressure. 6 of his 7 INT’s have come while under pressure. The pass rush will be something to watch here. The Cowboys are more susceptible to the ground attack and I expect a heavy rushing effort. Kirk has only cleared his passing yardage, completion and attempts mark in 3 or less times for each prop. Dallas is allowing about 230 passing yards per game this season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing TD’s -156

 

RB Bijan Robinson

If there is a game for Bijan to go nuts, it feels like this one. He’s seemingly hit his stride with 95+ rushing games in 2 of his L3 and 100+ R+R games in each of his L3. DAL has allowed (tied) the most rushing yards per game this season (154.6/game). They rank 7th in YPC allowed and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season (tied for 2nd most). They rank 8th in explosive run % and their stuff % ranks dead last. Bijan and Allgeier could easily both have great games here. DAL is allowing the highest success rate against man/gap, which Bijan does not primarily run scheme-wise. Bijan primarily runs in the zone scheme, which DAL allows the 12th highest success rate with. Dallas also allows the 6th most receiving yards to opposing RB’s, despite only allowing the 9th fewest receptions per game. All signs point to taking the playmakers rushing and receiving yards in this one.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 99.5 R+R Yards (-115)

 

RB Tyler Allgeier

Allgeier is a sneaky play despite the elevated line. He’s only been over this mark in 3 of 8 games, but is more fitted for the map/gap scheme that DAL has a big weakness against. The problem is Tyler has only exceeded 8 rushing attempts 3 times. This is a lot to ask for a guy that just doesn’t get a ton of work and isn’t a break away speed type. I think it’d better to rely on the primary guy here in a game that I think DAL could be leading.

Suggested Picks
Pass

 

WR Drake London

This receiving line is all over the place. You can get it as low as 63.5 and as high as 70.5. London has only exceeded this line in 4 of 8 this season, but is averaging 65.5 receiving yards per game. DAL is ranked 17th in passing yards allowed to WR’s and 15th in receptions allowed. DAL also ranks 5th in aDOT allowed and 2nd in yards per route run. I think Receptions is the better way to attack this. London has 6+ receptions in 6 of his L7 and a sub-10 aDOT on the season. As I mentioned, I think DAL could jump out to an early lead here and I think London will be involed. I’m just not sure I trust the yardage.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 5.5 Recepetions (-125)

 

TE Kyle Pitts

Pitts has quietly been on a tear with 55+ receiving yards in 5 of his L6, despite an overall decrease in his snap share. He has 5+ targets in those 5 games and is currently rocking an 8.2 aDOT. Despite Dallas allowing the 3rd fewest receptions per game to TE’s, they are allowing the 15th most receiving yards per game. What does that mean? While they are giving up a lot of underneath stuff, they are giving up longer plays to the position, which perfectly fits Pitts’ profile. You could dabble with his receiving yards and I wouldn’t blame you, but he’s worse against zone coverage this season. I take 1 big play!

Suggested Picks
Long Rec ‘O’ 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Game Prediction

DAL desperately needs a win. This ATL team is very well-rounded, but I think DAL gets up for this game. My favorite play is the DAL TT 1st half. We can cash this with a pair of TD’s or a TD and 2 FG’s. This Dallas team has plenty of problem, especially at the defensive end and the run game, but I think we could see an upset here vs ATL.

Best Bet (DAL Cowboys 1st Half TT ‘O’ 12.5 Points)
Leans
(DAL +3.5  +100)
(Under 53.5 -145)
Cowboys 27 Falcons 24