Commanders Team Overview
QB Jayden Daniels
Front runner for offensive rookie of the year, Jayden Daniels, averages 8.43 yards per attempt, and has thrown for 7 TDs. He is a true dual threat QB, averaging 53 rush yards per game and has 4 rush TDs on the season. He faces a Giants defense that allows the 11th least passing yards per game, and the 6th most rush yards to opposing QBs. The Giants defense has the 3rd highest pressure rate over expectations. When pressured, Daniels has scrambled 30 times for 264 yards, compared to 7 scrambles for 36 yards when not pressured. He has only attempted 39 passes on 86 dropbacks where he’s been pressured, so he has relied on his legs when the play breaks down. Looking at the Giants coverage scheme, they play single-high at the 4th highest rate (60%), with their top 2 coverage schemes being Cover 3 (30.7% frequency) and Cover 1 (28.2% frequency). Against single-high, Daniels has positive splits averaging 9.15 yards per attempt and has 232 yards of his 300 total scramble yards against this scheme. In his first matchup against the Giants, he threw for 226 yards and rushed 10 times for 44 yards.
Suggested Pick
“O” 45.5 Rush Yds (-119)
“O” 8.5 Rush Att (+105)
RB Brian Robinson
BRob is averaging 4.56 YPC and has 6 rush TDs on the season. The Giants are allowing 5.43 YPC, the most in the league. They have also given up the most rush yards on explosive runs (15+ yards). Robinson is 15th amongst qualifying RBs with 50+ attempts in explosive run rate (5.9%). Against run plays where the QB is in shotgun, the Giants allow 6.87 YPC, 2nd most in the NFL. The Giants are relatively better against the run when the QB is under center. They allow the 12th most YPC (4.27). 63 of his 84 attempts have come in shotgun, and he averages 4.52 YPC. His effectiveness in each QB position is similar, but his volume has been against the Giants' weakness. As 3.5-point favorites, I like the Commanders to lean on the run in a divisional rivalry.
Suggested Pick
“O” 61.5 Rush Yds (-120)
RB Austin Ekeler
Ekeler is averaging an efficient 6.15 YPC on 39 attempts this season. He has also added 29.6 receiving yards per game as the Commanders clear passing down back. The Giants are allowing 5.43 YPC, the most in the league. They also allow the 7th most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (38.62). Looking at the Giants coverage scheme, they play single-high at the 4th highest rate (60%). Against single-high, Ekeler averages 1.37 YPRR and is targeted on 15% of his routes. This compares to 2.91 YPRR and targeted on 26% of his routes when the defense is in two-high.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Terry McLaurin
Terry leads the Commanders in receiving averaging 2.62 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He has seen an elite 29.2% 1st-target rate. The Giants defense has the 3rd highest pressure rate over expectations. McLaurin is averaging 1.84 YPRR when pressured, compared to 3.01 YPRR when not pressured. Looking at the Giants coverage scheme, they play single-high at the 4th highest rate (60%), with their top 2 coverage schemes being Cover 3 (30.7% frequency) and Cover 1 (28.2% frequency). Against single-high, McLaurin is averaging 2.89 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. The Giants are 10th in wideout target rate (42.3%) and 28th in target frequency allowed to the slot (28.4%). McLaurin has lined up out wide 81.4% of the time. Terry’s receiving line is currently set at 64.5, I lean over in a decent matchup as he’s hit in 3 of L4.
Suggested Pick
“O” 64.5 Rec Yds (-110)
WR Noah Brown
Noah Brown averages 2.19 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. With him joining the team late, he has been ramped up slowly, but his route share was up to 71.7% last week, the same as Scary Terry. He produced with 73 receiving yards, however that’s deceiving. 52 of those yards came in the last second of the game with that wild game winning Hail Mary. The Giants defense has the 3rd highest pressure rate over expectations. Brown averages 1.87 YPRR when the QB is pressured, compared to 2.34 YPRR with no pressure. Looking at the Giants coverage scheme, they play single-high at the 4th highest rate (60%), with their top 2 coverage schemes being Cover 3 (30.7% frequency) and Cover 1 (28.2% frequency). Against single-high, Brown averages 1.81 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes, a slight negative split. Outside of the Carolina game where Daniels left early with an injury, Brown has covered his current 28.5 receiving yard line in 4 of 5 games.
Suggested Pick
“O” 28.5 Rec Yds (-123)
TE Zach Ertz
Ertz averages 1.69 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. His route rate during the season is 70.6%, which is relatively high for a TE. Matchup wise, the Giants are allowing the 6th fewest yards to opposing TE (38 YPG). They also allow the 11th lowest inline target rate (10.1%) and the 5th lowest target frequency allowed to the slot (28.4%). Ertz has ran 54.9% of his routes from the slot and 30.4% from inline. Looking at the Giants coverage scheme, they play single-high at the 4th highest rate (60%). Against single-high, Ertz has negative splits averaging 1.38 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. Ertz also has negative splits when his QB is pressured, while the Giants defense ranks 3rd highest over expectations. He’s averaging 1.47 YPRR and a 17% TPRR when the QB is pressured.
Suggested Pick
“U” 34.5 Rec yds (-110)
Giants Team Overview
QB Daniel Jones
Jones is averaging 213.3 yards per game and has thrown 6 TDs and 5 interceptions. He’s also added 23.1 rush yards per game. The Commanders made a major adjustment in their defensive philosophy in week 6. They have switched to majority single-high safety, running it at the 4th highest rate (64.6%). They only ran it 40.4% of the time prior to week 6 (4th lowest). Since this change, they have allowed the 3rd fewest passing YPG. Against single-high, Danny Dimes averages 6.71 YPA and has an 87.8 QB rating. This is positive compared to his split against two-high, where he averages 5.46 YPA and has a 69.8 QB rating. Washington has been a run funnel. They rank 2nd to last in pass rate over expectations, meaning opponents attack them in the run game more than expected (adjusted for game script/situation). He threw for 178 yards and ran for 32 rush yards in their matchup earlier this season.
Suggested Pick
“U” 212.5 Pass Yds (-114)
RB Devin Singletary
In Singletary’s 2nd game back from injury, his snap share increased to 39% from 21%, but Tracy received all the touches. Tracy ran 20 times for 145 yards and a TD, compared to 2 carries for 11 yards for Singletary. However, Tracy is in concussion protocol, and it’s a longshot to expect him to clear by Sunday. So Singletary is expected to get his RB1 role back, for now. In weeks 1 to 4, prior to his injury, Singletary averaged 3.95 YPC and ran for 2 TDs. He ran man/gap concepts 60.7% of the time and was much more effective averaging 5.12 YPC and a 55.9% success rate. That compares to 2.14 YPC and a 18.2% success rate in zone run concepts. Looking at the Commanders rush defense, they have allowed 5.05 YPC overall. They have been much worse against Singletary’s strength, allowing the most YPC against man/gap concepts (6.19). Since the Commanders are a run funnel, ranking 2nd in rush rate over expectations as a defense, Singletary is expected to see plenty of carries.
Suggested Pick
“O” Rush Att (Line TBD due to Tracy injury uncertainty)
“O” Rush Yds (Line TBD due to Tracy injury uncertainty)
WR Malik Nabers
The Rookie WR out of LSU looks like an absolute stud. He is averaging 2.26 YPRR and has been targeted on 33% of his routes. He has a first read rate of 46.2%. Since week 6, the Commanders have switched to majority single-high safety coverage, running it at the 4th highest rate (64.6%). Since this change, they have allowed the 3rd fewest passing YPG. Against single-high, Nabers averages 2.70 YPRR and has been targeted on 37% of his routes. Looking at Malik’s pre-snap alignment, he has aligned out wide 70% of the time and has worked from the slot 29.1% of the time. The Commanders are allowing the 7th highest target rate to outside receivers (43.4%) and the 8th highest rate to the slot (36.6%). The Commanders have also played man coverage at the 3rd highest rate since they changed to a single-high look (42.7%). Nabers is averaging an elite 3.15 YPRR, has been targeted on 44% of his routes and has a first read rate of 50% against man. Those numbers are insane! It’ll be interesting to see if the Commanders adjust and double Malik, as he torched them for 127 yards and a TD last matchup.
Suggested Picks
“O” 70.5 Rec Yds (-110)
WR Wan’Dale Robinson
Wan’Dale is averaging 1.29 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He has the 2nd highest 1st-read rate on the team (26.4%). He has operated as the underneath guy, with an average depth of target of 4.1 yards. For comparison, Nabers aDOT is 11.4 yards. Wan’Dale has lined up in the slot 77.5% of the time. The Commanders have allowed the 8th highest target share to the slot (36.6%). Since week 6, the Commanders have switched to majority single-high safety coverage, running it at the 4th highest rate (64.6%). Against single-high, Wan’Dale’s YPRR average increases to 1.34. His 1st-read rate drops slightly to 25%. With the Commanders allowing the 2nd lowest pass rate over expectations, I expect Danny’s passing volume to be lower than usual, which should negatively impact Robinson as a result. He caught 2 receptions for 4 receptions last matchup vs WAS.
Suggested Pick
“U” 5.5 Rec (-160)
“U” 4.5 Rec (TBD)
WR Darius Slayton
Slayton is averaging 52.5 receiving yards per game this season and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. That’s a little deceiving, as in the games without Nabers, Slayton is averaging 89.5 receiving yards, compared to 40.2 YPG with Nabers. Slayton has lined up out wide on 79% of his routes. The Commanders are allowing the 7th highest target rate to outside receivers (43.4%). Since week 6, the Commanders have switched to majority single-high safety coverage, running it at the 4th highest rate (64.6%). Since this change, they have allowed the 3rd fewest passing YPG. Against single-high, Slayton averages 1.86 YPRR and 16% TPRR. This compares to 1.22 YPRR and 19% TPRR against two-high. The Commanders have also played man coverage at the 3rd highest rate since they changed to a single-high look (42.7%). Slayton averages 2.33 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes against man.
Suggested Pick
“U” 38.5 Rec Yds (-114)
TE Theo Johnson
Theo averages 18.8 receiving yards per game and has been targeted on 9% of his routes. He has run a route on 67.8% of dropbacks. The Commanders are allowing the 5th least receiving YPG to opposing TEs. Theo has run 49.3% of his routes from the slot, and 40.7% from inline. Against slot, the Commanders have allowed the 8th highest target share (36.6%), and against inline, they allow the 2nd lowest target share (6.3%). Theo does not have enough volume to consider looking at man vs zone and single-high vs two-high splits. However, at his current line of 14.5 yards, it only takes 1 or 2 catches to surpass. I don’t have any confidence on either side.
Suggested Pick
Pass
Game Prediction
These 2 divisional rivals met earlier in the season, with the Commanders coming out on top 21-18. The Giants are now home in this one, but rookie QB Jayden Daniels has had some time to gain experience in the NFL, and he looks like a future star. The Giants struggle against the run, where the Commanders have been dynamic. The Commanders also made a change in their defensive coverage to single-high, that has led to their pass defense from being one of the worst to surprisingly good. I see too many ways for the Commanders to win this game, and to win by more than a field goal!
Best Bet (Commanders -2.5 -125)
Lean (Over 44.5 -115)
Commanders 27 Giants 17