Raiders vs Bengals @1:00 EST

QB Gardner Minshew

This Las Vegas Raiders quarterback situation has been a mess this season. They started with Gardner Minshew, and after a few rough outings, the Raiders turned to Aidan O'Connell. After two weeks, O'Connell went down with a thumb injury, and Minshew is back under center. As mentioned, Minshew hasn't been outstanding. He's averaging 196.7 passing yards per game. The Cincinnati Bengals are middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per game, averaging 226.5 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. This Bengals defence runs the ninth most man coverage in the league (29.1%). This doesn't bode well for Minshew, who has a 59.4% completion percentage for just 419 passing yards, averaging 6.55 yards per attempt (sixth fewest in the league) this season. However, against zone, he has a 73.3% completion percentage for 958 yards. The one bright spot for Minshew in this matchup is the Bengals pass rush or lack thereof. They have the fourth worst passing rushing grade on PFF, with just one pass rusher (Trey Hendrickson) with more than 12 pressures all season. Minshew really struggles against pressure, completing just 46.4% of his passes. However, in a clean pocket, Minshew's completion percentage jumps up to 75.7%. If Minshew does get under some pressure, he may need to resort to his legs. Now, he's only rushed 14 times for 46 yards this season, but the Bengals allow the most rushing yards to quarterbacks, allowing 37.6 per game. If the protection can hold up against this poor Bengals rush defence, then Minshew could be in store for a season-high in passing yards.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 231.5 Pass + Rush yds -110

RB Alexander Mattison

Zamir White had the keys to this backfield to start the year, but Alexander Mattison took over quickly. He fully took over the backfield in Week 5 but hasn't been great. He's been given 14+ rush attempts in each of the previous four games and has eclipsed 40 rushing yards and 2.5 yards per carry once. Mattison sees most of his rush attempts (62.7%) against zone scheme, where he has a 3.5 yards per carry. But when he faces man/gap, he struggles as he averages just 2.7 yards per carry, which ranks as the lowest of all NFL RBs to have played at least five games. Now,this Bengals rush defence hasn't been outstanding this year. Through the first five weeks of the season, they allowed Rhamondre Stevenson, Isiah Pacheco, Chuba Hubbard and Derrick Henry all to reach 90+ yards. But since then, they've held the fort down, only allowing Saquon Barkley to reach that clip over the past three weeks. This Bengals defence ranks 14th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, averaging 98.3 per game. What doesn't bode well for Mattison is the Bengals are bad against man/gap scheme, allowing 5.0 yards per carry. But Mattison is even worse against that scheme, and typically, you side with the defence as opposed to the RB. However, Mattison makes his worth through the passing game, as he is averaging 4.0 targets over the last four starts since he took over. As seven-point underdogs, it wouldn't be surprising to see Minshew utilize Mattison through the passing game, as the Bengals allow 3.8 receptions to RBs per game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 2.5 Receptions (-140)

WR Jakobi Meyers

Man, this Raiders WR room is pretty difficult to dive into, especially when you have the duo of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell throwing you the ball. But here we go. Meyers is the clear WR1 option in this offence, as he leads the WRs in targets (43), receptions (31), receiving yards (325), yards per reception (10.5) and receiving TDs (2). Meyers has a clear advantage against zone coverage, with an 83.3% catch rate compared to his 53.5% man catch rate. This is bad for Meyers as the Bengals run the ninth most man coverage (29.1%) in the NFL. Cincinnati is in the middle of the pack against WRs, allowing the 14th most receiving yards (146.6) but the 10th most receptions (12.25). Meyers moves around the field quite a bit, lining up 32% on the left, 38% on the right and 30% in the slot. The Bengals have rookie DJ Turner projected to slot into the RCB position for this game. Is this the perfect matchup for Meyers to show out for his team? It just might be as the number one receiving option against a rookie, despite the unfortunate man coverage matchup.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers has had a remarkable season, so much so that he's on pace to break Puka Nacua's rookie receiving record he set just last season. He's caught 52 of his 64 passes for 535 receiving yards. He's running a route on 89.3% of his routes, only used in pass protection on 13 of his 237 passing snaps. The Bengals struggle against opposing TEs, allowing the eighth most receptions (5.5), receiving yards (57.38) and 0.5 touchdowns per game to TEs. With their high man coverage rate, Bowers should eat as he has the highest PFF grade of all receiving options on the Raiders, catching 10 of 12 targets for 151 yards and his lone touchdown. Bowers had five of his receptions against strong safeties last week. Vonn Bell is the starting strong safety for the Bengals. He's allowed a very high 73.7% catch rate and 191 yards on 14 receptions so far this season.

Suggested Pick:
75+ Receiving Yards (+160)

QB Joe Burrow

This Bengals offence has started to round into form after what was a pathetic start to the season. They have averaged 324.4 total yards per game over their last five games, most of which has come off the arm of Joe Burrow, who averages 249.4 passing yards per game over that span. This Raiders pass defence has actually been a relatively good unit this season. They allow the 10th fewest pass attempts (30.1) and the seventh-fewest passing yards (206.6) per game. Now, this might be a byproduct of how bad they are in the run game, but we'll get to that later. The Raiders are just below league average (26.1%) in terms of coverage schemes, coming in at 25.9% of the time they run man coverage. This is good news for Burrow, as he eats up zone coverage. He's completing 78% of his passes against zone, which leads the NFL. With a high completion percentage, it makes sense that Burrow has a low aDoT of 6.7, the eighth lowest in the NFL. This is just another positive for Burrow in this matchup as this Raiders defence allows the second-fewest 20+ yard passes in the NFL with 19. Going back to the Raiders not allowing many attempts. While that is true, they are allowing the 10th-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, averaging 67.2%. His numbers don't dip that far below this when he's under pressure either, as he's completing 58.3% of his passes when pressured. With Maxx Crosby on the defensive line for the Raiders, Burrow may be under pressure quite a bit.

Suggested Pick:
25+ completions (+120)

RB Chase Brown

Oh, baby, the time has finally come. I don't know about you guys, but I've been waiting for Chase Brown to be given the opportunity to have the full starters role, and it couldn't have come in a better matchup against the Raiders. If you hadn't heard, Zack Moss, who signed with the Bengals in free agency, is doubtful heading into this matchup with a neck injury. So far this season, Brown has looked like the better running back. Brown has more rushing yards (359 to 242), a better yards per carry (4.6 to 3.3), more rushing TDs (4 to 2), fewer fumbles (1 to 2), more yards after contact (236 to 157), more missed tackles (15 to 9), and more 10+ yard rushes (12 to 5) than Moss on the season. This Raiders defence allows the 13th most rushing yards (102.13) and yards per carry (4.58) per game this season. They run more zone scheme (43.6%) than man/gap (37%), which is reflected in their yards per carry, with a 4.92 YPC in zone to 4.56 in man. There isn't much of a difference in terms of the run coverage the Raiders run; Brown is elite against man/gap, averaging 5.1 yards per carry compared to his 4.16 against zone. Brown is also great at forcing missed tackles, as he's broken the 10th most tackles in the league. This matchup couldn't be sweeter, as the Raiders allow the fifth most broken tackles to RBs in the league. Brown should be able to take advantage of this soft matchup and break out at least one long run.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 15.5 Long Rush (-110)
20+ Long Rush (+180)

WR Ja'Marr Chase

Missing all of training camp and the preseason really hurt Ja'Marr Chase to start the season. But from Week 3 on, Chase has returned to his normal superstardom. He leaders the team in targets (59), receptions (48), receiving yards (674), yards per reception (14) and receiving TDs (7). The Raiders are surprisingly good against WRs this season, allowing the 26th most receptions (10.25) and 25th most receiving yards (126) per game. As mentioned, the Raiders run around league average of man coverage at 25.9%. But there's no coverage the defence can throw at Chase that can really stop him. He has an 83.3% catch rate against man and an 80.6% catch rate against zone. What makes Chase so hard to defend is that he lines up all over the field. He lines up on the left side 33%, the right side 35% of the time and the slot 32% of the time. How can a cornerback gain an edge on a WR when Chase doesn't have a consistent matchup all game? Since Chase plays most of his snaps on the left side, the project he lines up most against Jack Jones (the Radiers LCB). He's allowed a 68.8% catch rate, which is the highest of all starting CBs for the Raiders. Sure, the Raiders have been good against WRs, but who have they really played? Josh Palmer, Zay Flowers, Diontae Johnson, Amari Cooper, Courtland Sutton, George Pickens, Tutu Atwell and Xavier Worthy. Are any of those guys at the same elite calibre as Chase? No. With Tee Higgins doubtful again for this game, it should be another big game for Chase.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 6.5 Receptions (+120)

TE Mike Gesicki

Mike Geisicki has been just alright this season. He's registered 253 receiving yards on 25 receptions this season but is yet to find the end zone. However, he is by far the receiving option in this TE room. This Bengals team is liking what they're seeing out of rookie Erick All, but Gesicki still dominates in routes run, running 152 compared to All's 97. Now, with Tee Higgins likely out for this game, Gesicki is going to be more relied upon. In games with Higgins this season, Gesicki averages 1.6 receptions on 1.8 targets for 14.2 receiving yards per game. But without Higgins, Gesicki averages 5.7 receptions on 7.0 targets for 60.7 receiving yards per game. With the Raiders running around league average in terms of coverage, man coverage at 25.9% should bode well for the rest of the 74.1% of the game, as Gesicki has caught 14 of 15 targets against zone coverage. Geisicki primarily lined up against safeties last week. The Raiders starting safety (Isaiah Pola-Moa) has allowed a 77% catch rate so far this season.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 3.5 Receptions (+105)

I think this is a great spot for the Bengals to bounce back after a tough week last week and help claw themselves back into the AFC playoff picture. This Raiders team has nothing going for them.

Best Bet: Bengals -6.5 (-125)
Lean: Over 44.5 (-110)
Bengals 34 Raiders 17