Saints vs Panthers @1:00 EST

QB Derek Carr

Derek Carr is likely to return under centre for the New Orleans Saints this week, and what better week to come back to than a weak division rival that you torched in Week 1? In that game, Carr went 19/23 for 200 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also added 13 rushing yards on two rush attempts. The offensive line did a pretty good job of keep Carr protected, only allowing three pressures and one sack. This bought time for Carr in the pocket and led to him throwing just one turnover-worthy throw in the match. Since then, it's been a little worse for Carr in that department. He's since thrown an interception in each game. After that, he saw his completion percentage dip below the 70s in three of the four games, and his offensive line has struggled, allowing 11.3 pressures against him per game. And Carr doesn't do well under pressure, as his completion percentage goes from 82.2% in a clean pocket to 50% when pressured. Luckily for Carr, the Panthers have the lowest PFF-graded pressure rate on the season.The Panthers pass defence allows the 11th most passing yards (235.3), 14th most completions (21.1), and the most passing TDs (2.1) but the eighth least pass attempts (29.5). It is interesting to see them rank in the top half in passing yards and completions despite allowing so few pass attempts. Especially when you consider that they aren't getting beaten deep a lot, only allowing 25 20+ yard passes this season (middle of the pack). Carolina runs the ninth most zone coverage (81.9%). Unfortunately for Carr, he performs much better against man. Carr completes 74.2% of his passes for 816/989 of his yards, compared to 57.7% for 151/989 of his yards against man. However, he should be able to handle Bryce Young and the Panthers as he did in Week 1 this season.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 1.5 Passing TDs (-115)

RB Alvin Kamara

Usually, a 29-year-old running back doesn't churn out his best season over the last four seasons, but alas, Alvin Kamara is doing just that. He has 505 rushing yards on 127 rush attempts for a 4.2 yards per carry. But that's not all Kamara is. He's heavily utilized in the passing game, where he has already caught 40 of 53 targets for 307 receiving yards. He, too, is on pace to have his best season through the air over the last four seasons. Now, let's rewind to Week 1, where we saw Kamara against this Panthers defence. He ran the ball 15 times for 83 yards (5.5 yards per carry, long of 17) and found the end zone. He also caught all five of his targets for 27 receiving yards. It's important to keep in mind the game script here, though, as the Saints ran away with this game 30-3 at halftime, so they held back on his workload, yet still, he walked away with that performance. The Panthers defence is one to target on the ground. They allow the second most rush attempts (28), second most rushing yards (128.5) and most rushing TDs (1.6). Through the air, they're fairly sound, but that's likely due to game script and how bad they are on the ground, so you can just run the ball down their throat. Don't get me wrong; it doesn't matter what coverage they throw out there; the Panthers allow high yards per carry to either zone or man/gap scheme. However, the Panthers struggle more against zone, as they allow the fifth most yards per carry (4.94) compared to their 17th ranked (4.55) against man/gap. This is exciting news for Kamara as his splits against zone (4.6) are much better than against man/gap (3.4). Whether on the ground or through the air, Kamara is finding the end zone in this one, as he did against the Panthers in Week 1.

Suggested Pick:
1+ TD (-150)

WR Chris Olave

Chris Olave is so hard to read. Is he good enough to be a number one in an offence? Yes. Does he have all the tools? Yes. Can he ever seem to put it together for a dominating season? No. He's on that same pace this season, as he has 31 receptions and 387 receiving yards through seven games of this season. He's had four 80+ receiving yard games and one 90+ receiving yard game, but three games under 12 receiving yards, including Week 1 against the Panthers, where he had two receptions on two targets for 11 receiving yards. Now, was that more of a game script thing due to the blowout? Potentially. Rashied Shaheed had no problems burning this defence with a 59-yard touchdown. With him out, not all hope is lost for Olave to have a good game. The Saints run the ninth most zone coverage at 81.5%, and Olave performs much better against this coverage, catching 22 of his 30 targets for 305 receiving yards. Olave lines up all over the field (39% on the left, 37% on the right and 32% in the slot), so it's hard to project who which CB will guard Olave. But, considering they only have Olave as an option to worry about, Jaycee Horn may line up against Olave, who didn't even get targetted when these two teams played in Week 1.

Suggested Pick:
'U' 5.5 Receptions (-120)

TE Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson started out slow (with two of the first three weeks recording zero receiving yards) but has since come back to form with 30+ receiving yards in three of his last four games. In Week 1, Johnson had 26 receiving yards on only two receptions against this Panthers team, who allow the ninth-most receptions (5.25) and the seventh-most receiving yards (59). With receivers Shaheed and Bub Means out and Marques Valdes-Scantling and Mason Tipton as the only other competition, Johnson should be in for an elevated role like he's seen in three of the last four weeks.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

QB Bryce Young

Gulp... There's no sugar-coating how bad this Panthers team has been this season. It's not all Young's fault; he's not surrounded by the greatest allotment of talent, so how can he develop without some weapons? So far this season, Young has started three games, averaging 156.3 yards per game. Now, these numbers may be a little skewed after his 224 passing-yard performance last week against the Denver Broncos, most of which came in garbage time. The Saints defence has been getting exposed through the air as of late, allowing the eighth most completions (22.4), the sixth most pass attempts (34.9), and the sixth most passing yards (263.5) but only the sixth-fewest passing TDs. One area they are elite at is forcing turnovers. This defence ranks third in the league in interceptions, averaging 1.3 per game. Young has thrown five interceptions in his three starts this season, at least one in each game. The Saints run the sixth most man coverage (36.3%). Young surprisingly does better against man coverage, according to the rankings. He is completing 52% of his passes (20th) against man and 62.3% (31st) of his passes against zone. The Saints don't have a phenomenal pass rush, ranking as the 27th best according to PFF, but if they can get to him, they'll have success, as Young has the second-lowest completion percentage (37%) when faced with pressure. Although, Young ranks third in the league in big-time throw percentage (12.4%) when pressured, but after trading Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen's availability in question, he may not have a big-time throw target he can rely on.

Suggested Pick:
2+ Interceptions (+310)

RB Chuba Hubbard

Chuba has been a breath of fresh air for this Panthers team as they wait for their superstar rookie Jonathan Brooks to get healthy from his ACL tear. He's left with a questionable for this week; however, he's not expected to make his season debut this week, opening the door for another game with a heavy workload for Hubbard. And even when he returns, I don't think Hubbard's just going to go away. As it currently stands, Hubbard is fifth in the league in rushing yards (593). When these two teams met in Week 1, Hubbard didn't perform well on the ground as the Panthers were trying to claw themselves back into the game, finishing with just six rush attempts for 14 rushing yards. Hubbard performs best against zone run scheme, averaging 5.27 yards per carry (7th highest in the NFL), but also has a solid 4.44 yards per carry against man/gap scheme. This is where the Saints run defence struggles as they allow the second most yards per carry (5.64) in man/gap running scheme and the second highest success rate for opposing running backs with a 62.3% rating. The Saints rush defence as a whole allow the ninth most rushing yards to RBs (111.4) per game. While it looks like a great matchup for Hubbard, his numbers decline rapidly in games with Bryce Young as the starter. Hubbard averages 44.7 yards per game, compared to 91.8 yards with Andy Dalton as the starter. For that reason, we're likely to fade Hubbard this weekend.

Suggested Pick:
'U' 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Xavier Legette

Oh boy, what a mess this Panthers WR room has become. Originally, they brought in Diontae Johnson as a receiver for Young; then they trade him. Now they're holding Adam Theilen out as he might be another trade casualty. But this opens the door for rookie WR Xavier Legette. Although, Legette leads the WR room in receptions (22), receiving yards (211), receiving TDs (3), and his hysterical voice. The Saints run the sixth most man coverage in the league at 36.3%. Legette and his 6'3" 227-lb frame dominates man, catching nine of his 10 targets, for 84 yards and 2 TDs. Now, I'm not sure how many of these Bryce Young is going to throw, but if he does decide to use his big-bodied WR's frame, it's a good matchup for that as the Saints allow the sixth most contested catches. When his QB trusts him to go up and make the play, he's come down with the catch on eight of his nine contested catch targets. The Saints allow the fifth most receiving yards to WRs, averaging 172.6 yards per game.

Suggested Pick:
1+ TD (+275)

TE Ja'Tavion Sanders

Now, I want to start by apologizing to Mr. Sanders, as I was not familiar with his game. Outside of RB Hubbard, Sanders is second on the team in receptions (20) and third in receiving yards (158). He's quietly been impressive, except, he's not very tested against man coverage, only earning one target against the coverage. Now, he caught it, for 11 yards, but it's such a small sample size to really tell how he'll do. However, with all the weapons missing, and him proving to earn trust in his QBs with the second most receptions, they should continue that in this matchup against the Saints who allow 4.9 receptions to TEs per game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 1.5 Receptions (-140)

I can't see a path where Carr returns and Young remains at QB and the Panthers come out and steal this game. Now, do I think it's going to be a massive blowout like last game? Absolutely not, these Saints aren't like those Saints. So maybe the Panthers can keep it a little close? You know hwere the money will be... 

Best Bet: Under 44.5 -125
Lean: Panthers +7.5 -135
Saints 20 Panthers 17