Chargers vs Browns @1:00 EST

QB Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert has shown us he can be an elite passer in this league, but as soon as Jim Harbaugh took over, it's been a lot of running, not a lot of passing. Throughout the first four years of his career, Herbert has averaged 616.5 passing attempts per season, topping out at 743 in 2022. But this season, he's attempted 196 passes and is on pace to 416.5, which would shatter his career low. But as of late, we're starting to see him throw the ball more, throwing for 30+ pass attempts in three straight games, finally throwing over 200 yards, recording 237, 349 and 279 passing yards. This could be trouble for this Cleveland Browns defence as they allow the 22nd most passing yards (216.9) but the fourth fewest completions (17.5), indicating that they're allowing a lot of big plays. They allow the second most 20+ yard plays with 41 against so far this season. While yes, Herbert's passing attempts are down, he actually is averaging his highest aDoT with 8.4 this season. The Browns run the third most man coverage (42.7%) this season, which is a little concerning considering Herbert has the sixth-lowest completion percentage (48.2%). However, that aDoT against man coverage goes up to 9.4 –– which is perfect for this matchup against the Browns.

Suggested Pick:
40+ Longest Reception (+145)

 RB JK Dobbins

The JK Dobbins story this season has been pleasant to watch. Having back-to-back serious ACL and Achilles injuries, he took over the starting job role with the Chargers with back-to-back 130+ rushing yard performances, with long rushes of 61 and 43. However, since then, he's averaged just 53.8 yards per game, despite seeing his rush attempts go from 13.5 through the first two games, to 17 over the past five games. Dobbins had 13.5 and 7.7 yards per carry through those first two weeks but has fallen off a cliff over his last five, not eclipsing even 3.8 yards per carry in any game since. One thing in Dobbins' favour is that he's forcing the 11th most missed tackles, tied with power runners such as Derrick Henry, Javonte Williams and Joe Mixon. The Browns haven't been great at tackling, as they're allowing the 11th most missed tackles to running backs. Now, this Browns run defence has been fairly respectable this season, allowing the 24th most rushing yards (84.3). There is really no difference between what coverage the Browns could run to help stop Dobbins, as he averages 4.8 yards per carry against zone and 4.75 yards per carry against man/gap. And the same goes for Dobbins, as the Browns allow around the same yards per carry in zone (4.1) as they do man/gap (4.2). While I'm not sure how well Dobbins is going to do in this matchup, with game script I'd imagine Dobbins continues to see heavy volume.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 16.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

WR Ladd McConkey

The Ladd finally broke out last week, as he recorded a career-high six receptions, 111 receiving yards and two receiving TDs. But he's been the most consistent WR in this new-look Chargers WR room, leading the field in targets (45), receptions (30), receiving yards (376) and receiving TDs (4). Lining up in the slot at 68.8% of his snaps, McConkey is very much a dependent on reception guy, which reflects in his WR-Chargers-low 9.5 aDoT. Unfortunately for McConkey, the Browns allow the ninth fewest receptions to WRs at just 10.25 per game. However, they also average the third highest aDoT at 9.9. But with the Browns offence finally looking competent with Winston under centre, this could lead to a closer game and Herbert needing to rely on his quick target. With McConkey lining up in the slot the majority of the time, he will likely line up against the Browns slot CB Greg Newsome. And he's projected to allow the most yards per game this season, as he averages 15 yards per catch and has a 68.6% reception rate. Is last week's production a sign of things to come against a struggling slot CB? I'm thinking it might be.

Suggested Pick:
6+ Receptions (+215)

TE Will Dissly

I've got to be honest with you guys. I didn't know how well Will Dissly has been doing this season. Did you know he's second on the team in targets (33), receptions (26) and third in receiving yards (233)? It's impressive for somebody who was pretty well thrown away by his last team. Dissly ranks third on the team in pass snaps of the receiving options, with a route participation of 82.5%, only pass blocking on 16 of his 137 snaps. But it might not be his week, as the Browns allow the seventh-fewest receptions to TEs (3.88) and the 10th-fewest receiving yards (41.75) per game. With the Browns running the third most man coverage, Dissly's three catches for eight receiving yards against man isn't going to cut it this week in a game we're projecting Dobbins to get a heavy workload.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

QB Jameis Winston

Famous Jameis is back in the NFL, and I don't know about you guys, but I'm ecstatic about that. Whether it's his pregame antics, hilarious speeches in the huddle or willingness to throw any ball, we need more Jameis. Now to his play. He looked great in his first start of the season last week, leading his team to their second victory of the season on a game-winning touchdown pass with 1:04 left on the clock. He went 27/44 for 334 passing yards and three touchdowns. But it's important to consider the matchup. The Browns played the Ravens, who are allowing the most passing yards to QBs so far this season. Now, Winston will match up against the Chargers who allow the eighth fewest passing yards (210) and the 13th-lowest completion percentage (64.3%). The Chargers run the 2nd most zone coverage (80.9%) in the league. With just a one-game sample size, we'll look at the Ravens, who run the 7th most MAN coverage (29.0%). Winston completed 70.6% of his passes, with a 10.06 yards per play against man and completed 57.1% of his passes, with a 6.8 yards per attempt against zone. So, now with the Chargers having a heavy zone coverage scheme, we may see that Winston magic run out. As a gun-slinger, Winston throws a lot of 50/50 balls up and trusts his receivers. Three of his 44 passes last week were deemed as turnover-worthy throws. This Chargers team turns the ball over at the 12th highest clip, averaging just under one interception per game. Despite not throwing an interception this week, I'm not sure Winston will have the same luck against this Chargers defence.

Suggested Pick:
1+ Interception (-160)

RB Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb has returned from his gruesome knee injury he sustained last season. He's struggled in his two games this season, having 11 rush attempts for 22 rushing yards and 16 rush attempts last week with 52 yards. That's a 2.0 and 3.3 yards per carry on 27 attempts. Granted, the Ravens have an outstanding run defence, but to only have 2.0 yards per carry against the Bengals and their 14th easiest running back matchup is frustrating. I don't expect much to change in this matchup against the Chargers, who allow the 23rd most rushing yards to RBs, averaging 84.3 per game. It's been a near 50/50 split in terms of run scheme Chubb has faced, with 14 attempts against zone scheme and 13 against man/gap. But he sees a substantial dip when running against man/gap, with just a 30.3% success rate and a 3.08 yards per carry. Luckily for Chubb, the Chargers run man/gap at the third-lowest rate and the zone concept at the eighth-highest rate. While his yards per carry dips to 2.43 against zone, his success rate jumps up to 42.9%. Now, don't get it wrong; these numbers are still very unimpressive. And in a hard matchup and the running back room full healthy, we might see a bit more of committee.

Suggested Pick:
'U' 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

WR Jerry Jeudy

This Browns receiving room is still trying to find its identity after the Amari Cooper trade, and Jameis Winston now under the centre. Who's going to step up as Winston's number-one option? Last week, all three starting WRs had season-high receiving yards (Cedric Tillman 99, Elijah Moore 85 and Jerry Jeudy 79). Jeudy leads the Browns in passing snaps, routes run and route participation, and shouldn't come as a surprise to see him lead the team in receiving yards (345) and yards per reception (13.3). The Chargers have been great against opposing WRs, allowing the second-fewest receptions (8.57), fourth-fewest receiving yards (119.71) and sixth-fewest yards per reception (10.37). Los Angeles runs the fourth most man zone coverage, clocking at 87.4%. Jeudy has had a down year against zone compared to his standards, catching 54% of his passes this year but catching upwards of 64% and 67% of his passes the previous two seasons. Now, this might be a byproduct of having Deshaun Watson throw you the ball, but regardless, it hasn't been a successful year for him. Jeudy lines up on the left 31%, the right 37% and in the slot 32% of the time. Los Angeles' RCB for this game looks to be Cam Hart, lining up on 47% of his plays. Given the Chargers have a lot of injuries in their CB room, Hart has been fairly decent, allowing just a 50% catch rate on 12 targets on 186 snaps for 56 yards. Could he start to lose his role in a tough matchup to younger WRs?

Suggested Pick:
'U' 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE David Njoku

Now, this is the true number one option in this offence. Njoku without Deshaun over the last two seasons has been phenomenal and lived up to the high draft capital. Last week with Winston, Njoku ran 33 routes, earning a target on 21.2% of those routes. While it was fewer routes run than the week before, he earned his highest slot rate at 34.2%, indicating that they're getting creative with how to use their 6'4" TE. While the Chargers are great against opposing WRs, the way to attack them is with the TE. They allow the second-most targets (8.4), third-most receptions (6.3), and 10th-most receiving yards (56.3). With the Chargers running the fourth most zone, Njoku should be able to slip by their LBs to find the open space and be a heavily relied-upon option for Winston, having caught 13 of 15 targets against zone coverage this season.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (+100)

The Winston story was great, but let's not forget this Browns team is 2-6. Winston's a known risk-taker who isn't afraid to chuck the ball up for his receivers. That might not work out in his favour in this matchup against the Chargers, who are turning over the ball at such a high rate this season. These projected turnovers will allow Jim Harbaugh to run his offense how he wants: to run the ball down your throat.

Best Bets (Chargers ML -115)
Lean (Under 42.5 -110)
Chargers 23 - Browns 10