Broncos vs Ravens @1:00 EST

QB Bo Nix

On the surface, there has been a lot to like from what we have seen from Bo Nix so far this season. He is coming off a solid week vs the Panthers, throwing for 284 yards (an early career high for Nix), as well as 3 TDs. The Ravens have had a tough time replicating their output defensively against the pass from a season ago behind new DC Zach Orr. They have a 8.09 YPA allowed, which is the 4th highest in the NFL, and a 67.2% completion percentage allowed, which is the 11th highest in the NFL. The Broncos have had a hard time finding much success in the running game this year, which has led to an approach that has seen a rookie QB in Nix pass the ball more than you would expect from a rookie. Much of this has been in the form of short passes, as despite some overall success, Nix has only a 5.86 YPA, which ranks 38th out of 47 QBs with at least 25 dropbacks. He also has a 13.0% checkdown percentage, which ranks 6th in the NFL. The Ravens have not generated much pressure this year, at only 30.1% of dropbacks being pressured (21st in NFL). In this matchup and likely with a losing game script for the Broncos, I like Nix to be able to scan the field and find his options underneath often.

Suggested Bets:
'O’ 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
‘O’ 20.5 Completions (-110)

RB Javonte Williams

Williams was on a nice stretch for the Broncos for a couple of weeks, but really struggled last week against a softer matchup in Carolina. Now he faces a Ravens rush defense that has been one of the best in the NFL, giving up only 1.32 yards before contact per rush attempt, which is the 4th lowest in the NFL, and have been even better after contact with only 1.66 yards after contact coming per rush attempt. Yards after contact has not been a strength of Williams either, who averages only 2.19 per attempt. I expect the Broncos to be throwing a lot in this game, both as a result of the defensive sets of the Ravens but also the likely game script with the Broncos as 9.5 point underdogs. It is tough to image Williams having too much success here.

Suggested Bet:
‘U’ 10.5 yard longest rush (+100)

WR Courtland Sutton

The Ravens defense has been challenged deep often this year, with a 14.0 aDOT that is the 10th highest in the NFL. Sutton is a prolific downfield threat for Nix and the Broncos, and averages 13 yards per reception. Sutton lines up out wide on 85.7 of snaps he is in the game. This is the alignment that has done the most damage against the Ravens as well, as wide alignment targets on the season have resulted in 988 receiving yards against the Ravens, which is the most in the NFL. Teams have been successful hitting this alignment on deep balls against Baltimore as well, with a 21.0 completion percentage, ranking the 6th highest in the NFL. This may seem to contradict Nix who has often checked the ball down and has a low YPA. However, what is interesting about Nix is he also has thrown the 4th most deep passes in the NFL, and it is primarily the intermediate game he has stayed away from. I think because of this you definitely could see a nice game from Sutton particularly in what should be a passing game script. There also are some questions at CB for Baltimore, with both Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey questionable.

Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 51.5 receiving yards (-115)

WR Devaughn Vele

Vele is the primary slot receiver on this Broncos team, lining up in the slot on 80.7% of his snaps. The Ravens defense has struggled against the slot as well, giving up 8.74 YPA to targeted players lined up in the slot, and an adjusted completion % of 80.2 when targeting the alignment. Vele is the beneficiary of a very soft line in my opinion, although I expect Sutton to be Nix’s primary target, especially with the injuries that the Broncos have suffered at WR on the season. Averaging 5 targets per game, with a high completion percentage as well as likely a passing game script and I will jump on this.

Suggested Bet:
'O’ 2.5 receptions (-110)

TE Adam Trautman

TE has not been a strong position this year for Denver, but Adam Trautman is a player to watch in this spot considering he is coming off a breakout game of sorts against Carolina last game. He had 4 catches for 85 yards in that spot, and is now getting another vulnerable pass defense. What makes Trautman difficult, however, is he only ran 14 routes despite the 4 receptions, making it hard to feel any type of certainty about his workload. Still, it would not shock me if the Broncos use his performance last week and get him more snaps. While it is tough to recommend any type of play here, he certainly could be a guy to keep an eye on for Denver.

Suggested Play:
Pass

QB Lamar Jackson

The Broncos defense has been impressive against the pass this season, allowing a league low 5.89 YPA. I am interested to see how this will play out against likely the best QB they have seen this year in Lamar Jackson. Denver plays man defense at the 4th highest rate in the NFL, at 38.4% of the time. Lamar Jackson has been fairly good against man coverage, ranking 7.57 YPA, which is 9th in the NFL overall. He also has an aDOT of 10.5 against man coverage, which is the 8th highest mark in the league. If there is one weakness of the Denver defense it has been QBs in the running game (which heavy man coverage sets are often susceptible towards), which Lamar obviously does better than anyone. Jackson has been back to running the ball more frequently this year well, with more rushes through this point in the season than he has had since 2021. I think our number is too low on Jackson despite the solid Broncos defense. Much of this is due to the lack of QB competition they have faced, and I think Jackson can hurt them.

 Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 261.5 Pass + Rush Yards (-115)

 RB Derrick Henry

Henry had a lighter day of action last week, only getting 11 carries in a game that was much more about the passing attack against the Browns. The Denver defense has done a great job of meeting the opposing RB near the LOS this year, but that does not always stop Henry, a back who has long been known for his ability to run through contact. This year, he averages 3.17 yards after contact per rush attempt, which is the 3rd highest in the NFL. Henry should see much more volume this week, although I like the Ravens to pass a certain amount as well. Despite the overall strength of the Broncos defense, they are susceptible to giving up some explosive runs, with 28.1% of yards allowed through the ground coming on explosive runs, which is 14th in the NFL. Henry, one of the more explosive backs in the NFL, could break a couple longer ones here. I think we are getting a line here that is an overreaction to a decrease in touches a week ago in what was a bizarre game.

 Suggested Bet:
‘O’ 89.5 Rush Yds (+100)

 WR Diontae Johnson

The Ravens went out and trade for Panthers WR Deonte Johnson this week. This is a significant move for a Ravens team that has been hungry to supply Lamar Jackson with a top option at WR for several years now. With the Panthers, Johnson had a 26.5 % target share and was on the field 80.5% of the time on offense. I do not expect him to immediately see that much action, but there are areas in which the Ravens can plug him immediately for this matchup with the Broncos. One area I could see from a betting angle that Johnson could have an edge in is his usage in the red zone. Johnson has 11 red zone targets on the year, which is the 3rd highest number in the NFL. He also had a 37.8 red zone target share. He was WR1 in Carolina and I expect him to become the WR1 in Baltimore and to expect similar volume in the offense. While his overall playing time in his first week with the organization could be limited, I could see him on the field often in the red zone as a guy to throw the ball up to. 

Suggested Bet:
1+ TD (+390)

WR Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers is a player who could see a decrease in action or take on a more secondary role with Johnson now on the team, but in this particular game we can expect Flowers to still shoulder the load as the Ravens WR1, especially considering he is 6th in the NFL with a 27.0% target share. In this game, Flowers (and likely Johnson at times as well), unfortunately will be tasked with trying to get free against one of the best CBs in the NFL in Patrick Surtain II, allowing the 9th fewest yards per route run. As mentioned earlier, this Broncos defense is extremely man-heavy and having a lockdown CB like Surtain affords them the ability to be more aggressive. Flowers has struggled at times against man coverage both in generating separation and target share, so while I see this as a better spot for Johnson in terms of matchup, it is tough to bet against Flowers either simply due to his volume. 

Suggested Bet:
Pass

TE Mark Andrews

After a brutal start to the year, Andrews has come to life a bit in recent weeks, coming off a game last week in which he grabbed 5 receptions for 36 yards and a TD. This is a tough matchup for TEs against the Broncos, a team that has allowed just 5.9 yards per target to the TE position, which is the 6th fewest allowed in the NFL. In the same way Denver has not faced a plethora or top QBs, they also have not faced many top options at TE either. Andrews however has been extremely effective in the red zone, and has caught 4 TDs in the last 3 weeks. Like Johnson, look for Andrews to get some chances in the red zone and end zone while Flowers is the guy the Ravens look to in the middle of the field. 

Suggested Bet:
1+ TD (+233)

This is the game where I think the Denver defense finally shows some cracks, as the Baltimore offense has been solid with the exception of last week vs the Browns. On the other side, I do think there are some paths for success for Bo Nix and the Broncos offense, but simply not enough to keep up with Lamar. I am expecting a rather high scoring game and a semi-comfortable Ravens win.

Best Bet: ‘O’ 46.5 -110
Lean: Ravens -9.5 -110
Ravens 31 Broncos 21