Dolphins vs Bills @1:00 EST

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Tua came back from the concussion he suffered against this exact Bills team last week against the Cardinals. He was solid in his return, throwing for 28-38 and 234 pass yards. The Bills line up with 2-high safeties and an open middle of the field on 54.3% of snaps. This shows an emphasis to protect against being beaten deep through the air. This has also resulted in a 12.6 checkdown % against the Bills, which ranks as the 4th highest against in the NFL. Tua has the 4th lowest passing aDOT out of QBs with at least 25 dropbacks, at 6.2. This shows that he may look to dump the ball off often, and against a Bills defense who may allow him some easy ones underneath for minimal yardage. Tua also has a 74.5 completion% against 2-high safety looks, which ranks 2nd in the NFL behind Will Levis, although many of these completions have been for minimal yardage. The Dolphins are 5.5 underdogs in this matchup, so I think there is a good opportunity for Tua to be able to hit some passes underneath in this game should they be playing from behind.

Suggested Bets:
‘O’ 33.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
‘O’ 21.5 Completions (-130)

RB Devon Achane

Achane is a player who has benefited tremendously from having Tua back as the Dolphins starting QB. Achane is often used in the passing game, and has been targeted on 28.6% of his routes run with Tua as the passer, and has seen 18.7% of the team’s total target share. In the rushing game, this is a tough matchup for Achane. He has not been able to break many tackles this year, averaging 2.12 yards after contact per attempt, ranking 53rd out of 69 RBs with at least 25 rush attempts. This also doesn’t match up with a Bills team that tackles extremely well in the open field, and allow only 0.14 missed tackles per attempt, which is the 12th best rate in the NFL, and the fewest percentage of rushing yards after contact in the NFL at only 41.0%. When you combine this with a potential losing game script for the Dolphins, I like Achane much more in the passing game, and think he is getting some good value that is overrating his games without Tua as a receiver.

Suggested Bets:
‘O’ 4.5 receptions (+115)
‘O’ 35.5 receiving yards (-115)

WR Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill has struggled in his career against the Bills, a defense that in recent years has done a great job of containing the deep ball as well as opposing WR1s. In games with Tua, Hill has eclipsed over 70 yards in only 1 of 5 games against Sean McDermott’s Bills defense. They have the 3rd lowest defensive aDOT against at only 6.8 yards, and only 9.81 yards per reception (also 3rd lowest). As earlier mentioned, Tua also has the 4th lowest passing aDOT among QBs with at least 25 dropbacks, which is not a good combination to have with a WR in Hill who has a 12.7 aDOT and is extremely capable of breaking off YAC, averaging 5.43 YAC per reception. When you combine this with the fact that the Bills do not surrender too many deep completions or deep passes in general, I like an under on Tyreek here factoring in his past struggles against this Bills defense.

Suggested Bets:
‘U’ 76.5 receiving yards (-115)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Where as Achane has been the player who has seen the highest boost in volume with Tua on the field as opposed to off it, Jaylen Waddle is the player who so far in 2024 has actually seen a hit in volume, with only 15.5% of team targets with Tua as the QB. Waddle lines up wide on 74.6% of his snaps, which is by far the highest percentage of Dolphins WRs. Given the 2-high safeties look that the Bills defense is consistently in. Teams have not challenged the boundaries often against the Bills defense, with only a 30.9% target share going to the outside WRs. Waddle also has an extremely tough matchup on Bills DB Rasul Douglas, who has allowed the 14th fewest yards per route in the NFL. Waddle does have a better outlook against 2-high safeties on this season and with a lower aDOT than Hill I could see him getting a few short receptions on his underneath routes, but it is hard to imagine him breaking any deep ones.

Suggested Bets:
‘U’ 20.5 yard longest receptions (-110)

TE Jonnu Smith

Smith is a guy who I see being targeted often in this game. He already has the highest yards per route run on the Dolphins, at 2.06. He also has by far the lowest aDOT on the team of any route running WRs or TEs, at only 5.6. Jonnu has also had success against the 2-high safety look that the Bills often line up in, with the most receptions on the team against the defense only only the 3rd most routes run against it. Given the fact that most of his targets can be expected to be underneath, look for Tua to look towards Jonnu Smith often.

Suggested Bets:
‘O’ 3.5 receptions (+135)

QB Josh Allen

The strength of the Dolphins’ defense this season has been getting pressure on opposing QBs. They have generated pressure on 36.5% of opposing QBs’ dropbacks, which is the 5th highest rate in the NFL. Despite bring the heat successfully, they also have gotten burned at a high rate when they have gotten the QB, with a 20.3% deep ball completion percentage against when getting pressure, the 6th highest completion rate against in the NFL. While Allen has struggled in efficiency against pressure as a QB this season (only a 42.6% completion), this is also because he has used it as a chance to air the ball out. He has the highest aDOT in the NFL when under pressure, at 15.3, and has had pretty good success with his shots as well, at a 25.0% deep-ball completion %, which is also the best rate in the league. Against a defense that has been shaky against what Allen likes to do most, I feel good about his chances to connect on some deep passes in this matchup, and against a team he has seen prior success against as well.

Suggested Bets:
'O’ 36.5 Yard Longest Completion (-115)

RB James Cook

Cook has been consistent this year for the Bills, racking up 4.57 YPC, which ranks 23rd out of 69 RBs with at least 25 carries. He has specifically had a lot of success when the defense has lined up in zone, with a 58.1% success rate that ranks 13th out of those 69 RBs, and has not gotten stuffed at the line either, with a 42.4% stuff rate (20th lowest in NFL). Cook has performed well against the Dolphins in the past, but the tough part about this matchup is that the Dolphins’ struggles defensively against the run have not been in the same situations that Cook has typically excelled in, as they only allow a 43.3% success rate when in zone coverage. Cook is coming off a 17 carry game and could see a good amount of volume in this matchup, but it is tough to determine the level of success.

Suggested Bets:
Pass

WR Keon Coleman

Coleman is starting to catch fire in the Bills offense and has built good chemistry with Josh Allen in the last 2 weeks. Last week he caught 5 passes for 70 yards and a TD. As Cooper begins to get playing time, this could mean we see less of Coleman. However, the Bills run a deep rotation at WRs, and when Cooper has been off the field, Coleman has seen a 31.3% target share. Coleman has seen the most end zone targets on the team this season. Coleman leads the Bills in end zone targets at 3, and also leads the team in receiving yards after contact, and yards per reception. Given Allen’s likelihood to challenge this Dolphins’ defense deep, I think there is a solid chance that Coleman could break one for a TD on a long shot play.

Suggested Bets:
1+ TD (+200)

WR Amari Cooper

Cooper saw limited action in his first game with the Bills 2 weeks ago, but got more action in his second week with team, going from running a route on 34.3% of his routes in Week 7 to running a route on 67.6% of his routes in Week 8. However it did not appear the trust and timing was there yet for Cooper, only getting targeted on 8% of those routes. I anticipate that much of this is due to the fact that the timing is still building between Cooper and Allen, as Allen has shown that he does prefer to target players he has more rapport and experience playing with. Cooper lines out wide on 77.6% of his snaps, 2nd to only Keon Coleman on the team. The Dolphins have typically forced opposing passers to attack the middle of the field, only targeting WRs on the boundaries 36.6% of the time (8th fewest in NFL). This would be a good under-spot on the surface, but what has me hesitant is the fact that we should see a pretty significant increase in targets and routes for Cooper.

Suggested Bets:
Pass

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid has the 6th highest target per route run % in the NFL at 24.3%. This has stayed steady following the signing of Amari Cooper as well, and really has not had any quiet games in terms of routes and volume on the season. Kincaid has also been efficient when he is running routes, with the 2nd highest YPRR on the team at an impressive 2.58, and the 3rd most overall receptions on the Bills at 28. The Dolphins defense has not given up many overall receptions on the year, but they have been beaten more often by TEs than other positions with 44.7 receiving yards per game allowed to TEs, which ranks 12th in the NFL. With the Bills WR room still relatively up in the air, this should be a good spot for Kincaid to be looked to often.

Suggested Bets:
‘O’ 40.5 Receiving Yds (-110)

The Dolphins have never been able to generate much offense against Sean McDermott’s defense, and while it was encouraging to see Tua have a solid return last week, going to Buffalo will be a different beast. With a total set at 49.5, I see that much too high considering the advantage I see the Buffalo defense having. The Dolphins’ defense will have some moments early and keep this game within striking range, but the Bills will be too much to keep up with.

Best Bet Bills -6.5 -11
Lean ‘U’ 49.5
Bills 24 Miami 13