Chiefs vs Raiders @4:25 EST

QB Patrick Mahomes 

In a season where Kansas City has lost Isaiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice and JuJu Smith-Schuster all to injuries, and Patrick Mahomes throwing for 6 TD’s to 8 INT’s, the Chiefs still find themselves  a perfect 6-0. This speaks volumes not only to Mahomes, but Andy Reid as a leader. This  Sunday, Mahomes will face a Raiders defense that has allowed the 10th fewest passing yards to opposing QB’s in the NFL at 198.7. Ironically, the KC quarterback is averaging 198.4 through the  air in ’24. Las Vegas plays zone-coverage on 60.9% of its snaps, and they run Cover 3 at a 30.2%  rate. Mahomes has not been particularly impressive against this scheme, as he’s completed 35 of 51 passes for 326 yards with 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Andy Reid now finds his star QB running its offense strictly through Travis Kelce and a rookie wide receiver. Adding DeAndre Hopkins will certainly give Kansas City a boost, but it’s unrealistic to expect any type of groundbreaking  production out of him with just a few days under his belt in a new offense. As bad as the Raiders have been this year, it’s not been for a lack of defense against the pass. Backing  Mahomes on the road would not be a wise play, and his rushing yards are of no value seeing as  how Las Vegas ranks just 27th in league in pressure rate. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

RB Kareem Hunt 

It’s taken a massive workload, but Kareem Hunt has posted 102 and 78 yards rushing, while  finding the end zone 3 times in his L2 games for the Chiefs. Be that as it may, it took 27 and 22  carries to get him to that mark, averaging just 3.67 YPC in the process. He will have the opportunity to put up a decent game this week against a Raiders rush defense that is allowing opposing RB’s to run for just under 5.0 YPC on average. But, let’s not forget that Hunt needed 27 carries to get to 102 yards against a New Orleans Saints rush defense that is 5th worst in the  NFL. The obvious value here is on Hunt’s rushing attempts, which currently sits at 17.5. The Chiefs feed Hunt the ball

Suggested Pick 
Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-113) 
1+ TD (-135)

WR Xavier Worthy 

Time will tell how quickly DeAndre will be able to adjust to a new offense and develop rapport with Patrick Mahomes. As it stands,  Worthy has been on the field for over 80% of his team’s snaps, and this past week he had 32% of the Chiefs total targets. The bad news is Worthy only managed 3 receptions for 19 yards, and that’s become an all-to-familiar trend for the rookie WR, who has been held to 25 yards or less in 4 of 6 games this season. His numbers against Cover 3 doesn’t provide any additional hope either, as Worthy has just a 19.6% target share, hauling in 5 of 10 passes for just 42 yards. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass

WR DeAndre Hopkins 

All eyes will be on DeAndre Hopkins this Sunday, but to expect the veteran receiver to step in  and blow up the Las Vegas defense on the road would be unrealistic. It’s also important to understand this is not the same DeAndre Hopkins that have been accustomed to seeing on the field. He is still trying to get himself back to 100% coming off a knee injury he sustained in the preseason. That said, he will still command more attention than any other KC receiver on the current active roster. It’s hard to assess his numbers, comparatively speaking to what he produced in Tennessee under what can only be labeled mediocrity at the quarterback position. In a very limited sample size, Hopkins has caught 7 of 9 targets vs Cover 3 for 83 yards in ’24. He  will be lined up opposite Jack Jones, who has been anything but impressive, allowing 19 rec. on  27 times targeted for 201 yards. Unfortunately, passing on Hopkins has more to do with the  complete uncertainty of what we can expect from him in his first game. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Travis Kelce 

Wash, rinse and repeat is the theme for Kansas City this year, as Patrick Mahomes finds himself  once again relying on his safety blanket Travis Kelce. You get the feeling this could be Kelce’s  encore performance for the Chiefs. He will still be an important part of this offense down the  oad, but we already got a glimpse of how Rashee Rice began putting Kelce on the backburner of Mahomes mind. But for now, he needs Kelce now more than ever. I’m willing to overlook his performance last week against a 49ers team that limited him to 5 catches for only 17 yards. Still, Kelce logged 5 targets, and in his 2 games prior to that he has 10 and 9 targets, where he  posted outings of 9-70 and 7-89. With regard to his numbers vs Cover 3, Kelce has caught 8 of 11 balls thrown his way, but he’s totaled just 54 yards. However, this kind of plays into what the Raiders allow, or rather don’t allow. They’ve given up the 10th fewest yards to the TE position this year at 39.6 YPG, however Las Vegas does play pretty soft, allowing a catch rate of 81.4%. I  like the value in Kelce’s receptions here, as the offense is clearly going through him right now. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 5.5 Receptions (+102)
ALT Receptions
7+ (+178)
8+ (+290) 

QB Gardner Minshew 

It’s seems only appropriate that Las Vegas quarterbacks have about the same success rate as a tourist sitting down in front of a slot machine down the road at the Bellagio. I’ve seen a lot of bad football over the years as a Buccaneers fan in the 80’s and early 90’s, but Gardner Minshew’s performance last Sunday can only be described as dreadful. The Raiders QB completed just 15 of 34 passes for 154 yards with 0 TD and 3 INT, all culminating in a passer rating of 21.0. And I would be remised if I didn’t qualify that this came against a Los Angeles Rams pass defense that entered the game giving up the 4th most yards to opposing QB’s. Now, Minshew gets to come back and face a Kansas City team, who over the past 3 games has held  Justin Herbert (179 pass yds), Derek Carr (165 pass yds) and most recently Brock Purdy (212  yds, 3 INT). The Chiefs operate out of zone-coverage at the 4th lowest rate in the NFL (55.7%). Steve Spagnuolo prefers to mix up his coverages, running an equal amount of man. KC runs Cover 1  and Cover 4 at a combined 43.8% of its snaps. And the results for Gardner Minshew have not been pretty. Against these two coverage schemes he has completed 41 of 67 passes (61.2%) for  452 yards, while throwing 0 TD’s and 4 INT’s. The Chiefs have also held opposing QB’s to only 7 touchdowns total in 6 games. Give me an INT 

Suggested Pick 
"O" 0.5 INT's -155

RB Alexander Mattison 

Alexander Mattison had his best game of the season last Sunday against the Rams, where he  accumulated 123 all-purpose yards (92 rush, 31 receiving) out of the backfield for Las Vegas. It was a rare feat for Mattison, who has totaled only 250 yards rushing this season, while averaging only 3.6 YPC. This doesn’t match up well for him as he will face a Kansas City defense who has absolutely put brakes on opposing RB’s this season. Led by star DT Chris Jones, the Chiefs allow the fewest rushing yards at 56.2/gm. And they’ve done this against some of the league’s best rushers. On the year, KC has shut down every running back they have faced,  including: Derrick Henry (13-46), Zack Moss (12-34), Bijan Robinson (16-31), J.K. Dobbins (14- 32), Alvin Kamara (11-26) and Jordan Mason (14-58). Mattison has had a large enough sample size to tell me he is not a very efficient runner even regardless of LV’s O-line status. His line of  38.5 rushing yards has only been cleared 2x, and it took the #1 and #2 RB’s in the NFL to do it!! This is going to be a bad game scrift as well

Suggested Pick 
Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

WR Jakobi Meyers 

You will need to keep an eye on Jakobi Meyers leading up to Sunday’s game. He is expected to  play vs Kansas City, but he’s been out the last 2 weeks with an ankle injury. Meyers is a bit of an enigma. On one hand, he has Gardner Minshew as his quarterback, and on the other he has  taken up 25% and 41.7% of the target share in the 2 games he played in which Davonte Adams  was out of the lineup. He will go up against 3rd year corner Isaiah McDuffie, who has been  targeted 26 times, where he’s allowed 16 receptions (61.5% CR) for 147 yards. He does a great job of keeping everything in front of him, as evident by not allowing more than 37 yards in any one game this season. Meyers has also not done particularly well against the Cover 1 and Cover  4 varieties, catching just 7 of his 14 targets for 71 yards. With this offense going directly through  Brock Bowers, I’m taking a clear pass here on Meyers as he returns for the first time in 3 weeks.  

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR Tre Tucker 

Even with the absences of both Davonte Adams and Jakobi Meyers, wide receiver Tre Tucker has not seized his opportunity to warrant a second look. He’s totaled just 95 yards receiving,  and even when O’Connell and Minshew looked his way for a combined 8 targets, Tucker was only able to haul in 3 catches for 36 yards. The Raiders WR has been on the field for over 95% of the team’s dropbacks. He’s obviously getting his chances, but there’s no reason to play him. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Brock Bowers 

Brock Bowers has been the class of the NFL at the TE position, and a bright spot in an otherwise  pitiful Las Vegas offense. Bowers has caught 47 balls for 477 yards this season, both team highs  and he also leads the Raiders with 60 targets. This is a scary matchup for Kansas City, because for everything that has been good about the Chiefs defense in ‘24, they’ve been equally as bad when it comes to defending opposing tight ends. KC has allowed the 2nd most receptions (43)  and 2nd most yards (501) to the TE position, behind only Baltimore. Opponents of the Chiefs  have also picked up on this, as they are targeting this position nearly 1/3 of the time on offense.  Bowers has been a human vacuum on the field this year, and especially in his L3 games, where  he’s caught 27 of his 32 targets (84.4% CR) for 261 yards (87.0 YPG). 

Suggested Pick 
Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
ALT Receiving Yards
70+ (+128)
80+ (+200)
90+ (+285) 

The Chiefs are the Cheifs and I will never fade them. This is a lot of points but they are facing a 2-5 Raiders team that is ready for the Offseason. 

Best Bet (Chiefs -9.5 -110) 
Lean (Over 40.5 -115)
Chiefs 27 Raiders 17