Cowboys vs 49ers @8:20 EST

QB Dak Prescott 

Despite allowing 28 PPG on defense, the Dallas Cowboys enter week 8 with a 3-3 record. Dak  Prescott will his team into San Francisco, and coming off last week’s bye he’s had 2 weeks to  prepare for this game. The 49ers are allowing 217.3 YPG of passing offense (13th most in NFL),  but they seem to rise to the occasions when facing Dak, who hasn’t beaten SF since 2017. In his  Prescott’s last 3 games vs the ‘Niners he has thrown 3 TD’s to 6 INT’s, while completing just  under 58% of his passes. San Francisco runs zone-coverage at a 67.1% rate, and within their  zone defense they primarily play Cover 3 and 4. The 49ers also like to mix in Cover 1-man about  ¼ of the time. Put these 3 schemes together, and it accounts for 72.7% of their overall defense.  The results are rather inauspicious for Prescott, who has completed only 58.5% of his passes  (96-164) for 1101 yards, while tossing 6 TD to 5 INT. Still, coming off a bye week it’s hard not to  back Dak with so much time to prepare. I’m not playing any ALTS, but I like him for over 250.5. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-113) 

RB Rico Dowdle 

Just when it seemed as if Rico Dowdle was poised to break out, Dallas up and went back to  father time, putting Ezekiel Elliott on the forefront. And wouldn’t you know it, Dowdle  outgained Elliott by 38 yards in their game at Pittsburgh. 49ers are allowing just 3.8 YPC on the  season, and it seems pretty clear that we’re going to see a split backfield on Sunday, which  makes it difficult to put much stock in either player in terms of his rushing yards. But, in terms  of receiving yards, I like the value available here with Rico Dowdle. The Cowboys RB has a  receiving yards line of 12.5 going into Sunday, and he’s eclipsed this number in 5 straight  games, putting up 30, 27, 15, 24 and 29 yards. On the flip side, San Francisco has allowed 301 receiving yards to opposing RB’s for an average of 41.4 YPG. Rico has hit this number in his  longest catch alone in each of his L4 games. There’s way too much value here to not play this. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
ALT Receiving Yards
25+ (+210) 

WR CeeDee Lamb 

For all the criticism CeeDee Lamb has still managed to put up 32 receptions for 467 yards, but  when you’ve only found the end zone twice haters are gonna hate. The truth of the matter is  that CeeDee’s numbers are a mirror image from that of last year at this exact time in the  season. After 7 weeks in the ’23 season, Lamb had 34 catches for 467 yards with only 1 TD. The  rest of the season is history, as he finished with 1749 yards and 12 touchdowns. CDL has a  target share of 24.3% vs Cover 1, 3 and 4, where he has 26 rec. on 42 targets (61.9% CR) for 356  yards, but what’s most impressive is the 141 YAC that he’s put up. If the Cowboys have done  their homework they will line Lamb up in the slot as much as possible, considering nearly 50% of San Francisco’s receptions have come in the slot (8th most in NFL). When he lines up here, he  will go up against Deommodore Lenoir, who has already been targeted 40 times this season,  where he’s allowed 25 receptions for 220 yards. In a twist of irony, he has given up exactly 141  YAC, but he’s not allowed any receiver to haul in a pass of more than 21 yards. The 49ers have  had a bend, but don’t break defense, but here is why I’m going all in on CeeDee Lamb this  Sunday. In his L3 seasons when coming off a bye, he has blown up. Last year, he had 12-158  (2TD), in ’22 he posted 11-150 (2 TD) and in ’21 Lamb had 6-112. He’s going to go off on SNF!! 

Suggested Pick 
Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
ALT Receiving Yards 
90+ (+134)
100+ (+190)
110+ (+250)
125+ (+390)
Anytime TD (+120)
2+ TD’s (+850) 

WR Jaylen Tolbert 

Jaylen Tolbert has quietly had a nice season in the shadow of CeeDee Lamb, but his numbers  against this week’s defensive scheme by the 49ers give me cause for concern. He has caught 12  of his 20 targets (60.0% CR) for 155 yards, but only 14 have come after the catch. With the  assumption that Lamb is going to spend a lot of time in the slot, this has him lining up across  from Charvarius Ward, who has allowed just 50 YAC for the entire season.  

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Jake Ferguson 

At this point in the season Jake Ferguson is slowly becoming an afterthought. His target rate is decreasing with each game, going from 26.9% all the way down to his 9.3% share that he saw  just before the bye week. While Ferguson does not command much attention, it’s important to  know that San Francisco has the personnel to shut down any TE on a given day if they choose to  do so. Travis Kelce (4-17) and Trey McBride (6-53) can attest to this first hand. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

QB Brock Purdy 

The last time Brock Purdy faced Dallas he lit them up 252 yards and 4 TD’s, but that was with a healthy supporting cast, something the San Francisco QB has had little of this season. Purdy has fallen on hard times this season, and despite throwing for the 3rd most passing yards in the NFL, he has just 9 TD’s and more alarming, 7 INT’s. After facing a well-rested Chiefs defense coming  off a bye, Purdy will have to turn around and do it for the second straight week as Dallas is  coming off a bye in week 7. He will face a Dallas defense that runs zone-coverage on 68.9% of  its snaps, and they rely on Cover 1-man and Cover 3 at a 60.6% rate. Purdy enters this game  with a QBR of 59.8, the lowest of his brief 3-year NFL career. Against the Cowboys two primary  defensive sets he has completed only 56 of 95 passes (58.9% CMP) for 732 yards, 2 TD & 3 INT. With no Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel coming off a game where he ran just 2 routes, this  raises concerns. In his last game against Kansas City, Purdy threw for 212 yards with 0 TD’s and  the 3 INT’s. And the one thing Dallas has in common in with the Chiefs is they are both facing SF off a bye week. With no Micah Parsons back, Purdy should pile up some yardage in this game.  When the Cowboys have not been able to get pressure on the QB they are allowing a 74.0%  completion rate (8th worst in NFL), along with a league high 8.8 yard PPA. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-113) 

RB Jordan Mason 

Despite issues with the 49ers passing game, Jordan Mason continues to shine bright in the  absence of Christian McCaffrey. The San Francisco RB has been simply marvelous this season.  He ranks 3rd in carries and 2nd in rushing at 667. If there is anything negative about Jordan  Mason it’s that he doesn’t catch many balls out of the backfield, forcing him to produce solely  in the rushing game. But this isn’t all bad as he’s currently getting 84.2% of the backfield  touches for the 49ers. This week he will face a Cowboys rush defense that has been one of the  worst in the league. They are prone to allowing big plays and have just a 57.7% success rate vs  opposing RB’s in ’24 (8th worst in NFL). Dallas has allowed some rather monstrous performances  this season. Alvin Kamara ran for 219 yards (3 TD), Derrick Henry had 228 yards (2 TD) and  David Montgomery and Jahmir Gibbs of Detroit combined for 197 yards and 2 scores. Mason  has also failed to reach the 100+ yard mark in his L3 games, so you can guarantee he will come  hungry for a big game here. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
ALT Rushing Yards
90+ (+140)
100+ (+200)
110+ (+285) 

WR Deebo Samuel 

Deebo ran just 2 routes last week vs Kansas City before having to be hospitalized for an illness.  He is still listed as questionable on the injury report, but he’s been back at practice this week  and appears ready to go for the 49ers. When facing Cover 1 and Cover 3, Samuel has been  targeted 15 times, where he’s caught 8 passes for 141 yards. The will line up against CB Andrew  Booth Jr., who in one game played has surrendered a reception on each of the 4 times he’s been targeted for a total of 85 yards. He also allowed a long of 39 in this game. We are still  awaiting the line to come out for Deebo’s longest reception in this game. He has hauled passes  of 25, 28, 53 and 76 this season, and this is a play I will most assuredly be targeting on Sunday. 

Suggested Pick 
"O" Longest Reception (TBD) 

WR Ricky Pearsall/Chris Conley 

With Jajuan Jennings ruled out for Sunday, it will be up to rookie WR Ricky Pearsall and Chris  Conley to pick up the slack. In his one game, Pearsall had 3 catches for 21 yards on 5 targets,  and did not look comfortable for most of the game. For Chris Conley, he is a classic journeyman  receiver in every sense of the word. Neither have value, and we’ll probably see them split time. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE George Kittle 

George Kittle is an absolute must play on SNF. He has a 19.9% target share for the season, but  when Samuel or Aiyuk have been sidelined this number shoots to 25.3%. Kittle has caught 12 of  16 balls for 139 yards against Cover 1 and Cover 3. The Cowboys defense is allowing TE’s to  catch for 8.6 YPT (5th worst in NFL) and they have a 12% touchdown rate on targets vs this  position as well (worst in NFL). The last time Kittle went up against Dallas he torched them for 3  touchdowns. He has great value in this game with no CMC or Aiyuk on the field. 

Suggested Pick 

50+ Receiving Yards (-150)
ALT Receiving Yards 
60+ (+110)
70+ (+170)
80+ (+275)
1+ TD (+140) 

San Francisco finds themselves in a pretty tough spot for the second consecutive week. Last Sunday, they had to play Kansas City coming off a bye, and now they turn around and have to face Dallas under the same circumstances. And for all the ridiculing Mike McCarthy gets (and deservedly so), his record coming off bye weeks is an impressive 12-5 as a head coach, and 3- during his tenure with the Cowboys. I expect both offenses to be thriving! 

Best Bet (Over 45.5 -108) 
Lean (Cowboys +3.5 -110)
Cowboys 30 49ers 27