Panthers vs Broncos @4:25 EST

QB Bryce Young 

The Carolina Panthers have decided to go back to Bryce Young at QB this week as Andy Dalton is nursing a thumb injury he sustained in a car accident. His reward will be having to face an elite Broncos defense on the road, which ranks in the top 5 in passing YPG allowed, and 3rd in  the NFL in PA at 13.3 per game. I will spare you from going down a Bryce Young rabbit hole that is filled to the brim with lukewarm numbers. For what it’s worth, Denver runs zone-coverage at  the 5th lowest rate in the league (57.1%). Rather, Sean Payton’s team prefers a higher rate of man-coverage than most teams, where they lean on Cover-1 man for 30.8% of their defensive snaps, and who can blame them with a pair of corners in Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss. Bryce Young has been anything but effective when facing man-coverage. He’s completed just 8 of 18 passes (44.4%) for 81 yards, and he’s been sacked 4 times when under pressure. This doesn’t bode well for the Carolina quarterback, who will be facing a Broncos defense that brings  pressure at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL (41.0%). It’s going to be a long day for Bryce Young!! 

Suggested Pick 
Under 160.5 Passing Yards (-130) 

RB Chubba Hubbard 

Chubba Hubbard has ran for 537 yards (5th most in NFL), but after posting games of 114, 104,  97 and 92, the Panthers RB was limited to just 57 yards on 17 carries last week @ WAS. He has  been a workhorse out of the Carolina backfield, where he’s getting over 80% of the touches.  This Sunday however, you would be wise to steer clear of Hubbard for a couple of different  reasons. The first being Denver is allowing just 4.1 YPC to opposing RB’s (6th best in the NFL),  but most importantly are Hubbard’s rushing totals when Bryce Young is under center. In the 2  games Young started, Chubba had rushing totals of just 14 and 64 yards. When Andy Dalton  took over at the helm, he posted 114, 104, 97 and 92 yards, before the aforementioned 57 yard game last week. The Broncos only concern on Sunday is Hubbard, and it is likely they could get  out to an early lead, which means Hubbard could be a non-factor. Still, his workload has been  large enough that I’m not willing to fade to the under either. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

WR Diontae Johnson 

Diontae Johnson comes into this game listed as questionable. He’s dealing with a rib injury, but played through it last week, and yesterday said it was something he would be able to play through, so I’ll take him at his word. But for Johnson, sore ribs will be the least of his concerns in Denver this week, as he has the unenviable task of lining up across from Patrick Surtain II,  who returned to practice yesterday. The 4th year man out of Alabama has been one of the best CB’s so far in ’24, and he has the numbers to back it up. Through 6 games, he’s allowed only 10 receptions (1.7/gm) on 15 targets for 111 yards to opposing WR’s. Furthermore, in his L5 starts he’s given up just 16, 8, 24, 24 and 0 yards. Despite being the Panthers #1 option, Johnson is averaging a pedestrian 51.0 YPG receiving, and against man-coverage he has rather uninspiring  numbers with 14 receptions on 26 targets, a completion rate of just 53.8%. And if that’s not bad enough, Bryce Young will be his quarterback, where in 2 games with him under center, Johnson caught for 19 and 15 yards on 12 total targets. With Surtain II playing 77% of the snaps, I will be backing Johnson’s under with a great deal of confidence. 

Suggested Pick 
Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-135) 

WR Xavier Legette 

Xavier Legette’s production this year is barely worth mentioning. He’s averaging only 4.0 TPG,  and has just 18 catches for 177 yards (25.3 YPG). On the bright side, he has been very good  against man-coverage, where he’s hauled in 10 of his 11 targets (90.9% CR) for 121 yards. He will go up against Denver CB Riley Moss, who has allowed 28 receptions on 47 targets this  season, giving up 291 yards (41.6 YPG) along the way. If Andy Dalton were in the lineup, this  would be a matchup worth taking a deeper look into, but I have absolutely zero faith in Bryce Young on Sunday, and neither should you. This is a clear pass. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders 

Like the rest of its offense, the current state of the tight end position in Carolina is a complete dumpster fire. Ja’Tavion Sanders is coming off a pair of decent games where he’s posted 5-49 and 6-61, but his status is up in the air as he’s been limited due to both wrist and groin injuries. Tommy Tremble is the other TE option for the Panthers, and he’s still dealing with back issues. Denver’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends. While, it’s possible Sanders could have a decent game here, there are just too many questions surrounding his injuries, not to mention the elephant in the room with Bryce Young starting. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

QB Bo Nix 

Rookie QB Bo Nix will be at home in week 8 to face Carolina, where the Panthers have allowed  228.3 PYG (11th most in NFL), and are giving up the 3rd most passing TD’s with 14 (2.0/gm). They play zone-coverage on 73.4% of their snaps, good for 8th most in the NFL, and within that, they run Cover-3 at a 49.5% rate, which is the most of any team in the league. This season Nix has completed 55 of 85 passes (64.7% CMP) for 498 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT vs Cover-3. The Panthers rank dead last in pressure rate and 31st in sack rate, but even when Nix is not under pressure his completion rate only climbs by 3% (67.7%). These numbers do not exactly give me  confidence for his passing totals. I expect Nix to use his feet like he has running for 61 & 75 the L2 weeks. The Panthers are giving up 23.4 Rush Yds to opposing QB’s (12th most in NFL).

Suggested Pick 
"O" 26.5 Rush Yds -105

RB Javonte Williams 

Everything is pointing to Javonte Williams having a big game on Sunday. He is coming off his best game of the season, where he ran for 111 yards and 2 TD on 17 touches out of the backfield. His usage has also been up as well. In the L4 games, Williams has had 80+ yards from scrimmage 3 times, and he posted 110+ in two of those. Carolina has been getting absolutely shredded in the run game. They have the worst rush defense in the league, allowing 133.3 YPG to opposing running backs, and they’ve surrendered 13 touchdowns to RB’s in ’24, which is 4 more than New England and Miami, who have given up 9 each. With a positive game script coming, I’m expecting a very good game  from Javonte Williams on Sunday. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
ALT Rushing Yards
70+ (+125)
80+ (+205)
Anytime Touchdown (-115)
2+ Touchdowns (+550) 

WR Courtland Sutton 

For the first time in his 7-year career in the NFL, Courtland Sutton did not receive a single  target. He will see a heavy dose of Cover-3 this Sunday, and while he leads the team with 81.3% routes ran, he has an overall target share of just 20.0%. His numbers are nothing to write home about either. Against Cover-3, Sutton has caught 8 of his 17 targets for 112 yards, and has yet  to find the end zone. He will be lined up across from starting CB Mike Jackson, who has allowed 27 receptions on 40 times targeted to opposing WR’s for 333 yards. Sutton has a nice matchup  here, but his usage is down, and he and Bo Nix have struggled to develop any chemistry on the field. Couple that with his questionable track record in ’24 against a Cover-3 defense that he’s going to see for 50% of the game, and it leave me with no choice to pass on him in this spot. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass

WR Troy Franklin 

This is a spot where I think there is some real value. Last week, Troy Franklin led Denver with a 29% target per route ran, 23% target share and 32% air-yard share. Sean Payton has been  specifically designing plays for him, and in turn he posted 5 receptions for 50 yards last Sunday.  He will match up against a Carolina defense that ranks 8th in zone-coverage rate and 31st in pass  +defense DVOA. Franklin also has a great matchup when he lines up across from CB Jaycee Horn, who has allowed opposing WR’s to post games of 25, 3, 49, 33, 31 and 34 yards. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Broncos will look to win this weekend behind their running game and defense, but that doesn’t mean Sean Payton isn’t going to continue building  on the rapport the former Oregon teammates have already established with each other. 

Suggested Pick 
Over 30.5 Receiving Yards -113 

TE Lucas Krull 

Nobody has abandoned the TE position in their offense more than Denver. Lucas Krull has  totaled a mere 57 yards on 6 catches this season, and one thing the Panthers have done a  relatively decent job of is defending tight ends. They’ve allowed the 12th fewest yards to this  position in ’24, and based on the trends Krull is a clear pass this week for Denver. 

Suggested Pick 
Pass 

The Panthers having to go back to Bryce Young is a recipe for disaster especially facing a very good Broncos defense. I think the Broncos rushing attack along with Nix scrambling a little bit is going to give this Panthers defense trouble. This will be one sided but this total seems way to high.

Best Bet (Under 42.5 -120)
Lean (Broncos -10.5 -125)
Broncos 27 Panthers 10