Bears Team Overview
QB Caleb Williams
Caleb has averaged 219.5 passing yards per game and has thrown 9 TDs and 5 interceptions. Coming out of the bye, he will face a Commanders defense that has been a run funnel, with the 4th lowest pass rate over expected allowed. The Commanders allow the 12th least passing yards per game, but the 3rd most passing yards per attempt. These numbers may be skewed a little bit, as they have played the likes of Andy Dalton, Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones, all struggling QBs. Washington ranks 17th in pressure rate over expected and plays the 7th highest frequency of man coverage (36%). They also play 2-high safeties at the 5th highest rate in the NFL (53.6%). When facing man coverage, Caleb is averaging 5.07 YPA, 28th amongst qualified QBs. This compares to 6.89 YPA against zone. Now looking at the 2-high safety split, Caleb has been better, averaging 6.81 YPA compared to 6.41 YPA against single-high. After 2 smash matchups against the Panthers and Jaguars, I think the Commanders are sneakily a better pass defense than people are giving them credit for. His passing yards line feels inflated.
Suggested Pick
“U” 228.5 Passing Yds (-115)
RB D’Andre Swift
After struggling to start the season with rumors that he would lose his job, Swift has run for 93, 73 and 91 yards in the last 3 weeks. He averages 3.57 YPC on the season, but that number has been 4.76 in the past 3 weeks. The Commanders have been a run funnel, as they have allowed the 4th highest rush rate over expectations. They allow the 6th most YPC (4.93) and the 2nd highest explosive run rate (8.0%). They specifically struggle vs man/gap concepts, allowing the 2nd most YPC (5.96). About half of Swift’s attempts are in man/gap run concepts, where he has a 47.8% success rate, compared to a 37.2% success rate in zone concepts. However, his YPC are lower, averaging 3.52 compared to 3.74 in zone concepts. Swift has seen 16, 21 and 17 carries in the last three games, expect that volume to continue this week in a bullish matchup.
Suggested Pick
“O” 58.5 Rush Yds (-115)
WR DJ Moore
Moore is averaging 1.50 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He leads the Bears receivers in 1st-read target rate (28.1%). The Commanders run two-high at the 5th highest rate in the NFL (53.6%). Against two-high, Moore averages 1.65 YPRR, 2nd on the Bears behind Kmet. He is also 2nd in 1st-read rate against this coverage (25%), behind Keenan Allen (30.8%). The Commanders allow the 9th highest target share to outside WRs (42.5%) and the 6th highest target share to the slot (36.0%). DJ Moore has lined up out wide on 75.5% of his snaps. Since he lines up primarily on the left side, he’ll likely see Emmanuel Forbes the most, followed by Benjamin St-Juste. Both have below average PFF coverage grades, 36.2 and 54.8 respectively. The Caleb Williams and DJ Moore connection has been inconsistent. He has only gone over 60 receiving yards in 2 of the 6 games. It’ll be interesting to see if the chemistry improves post bye.
Suggested Pick
“U” 57.5 Rec Yds (-115)
WR Keenan Allen
Allen is averaging 1.21 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He is 2nd on the Bears in 1st-read rate (26.4%). The Commanders run two-high at the 5th highest rate in the NFL (53.6%). Against two-high, Allen averages 1.17 YPRR, 4th on the Bears. He does, however, lead the Bears in 1st-read rate against this coverage, at 30.8%. The Commanders allow the 6th highest target share to the slot (36.0%), where Allen lines up 52% of the time, highest on the Bears. The Commanders play the 7th highest rate of man coverage, and against man coverage, Keenan leads the Bears WRs in target rate (25.9%) and in fantasy points per route run (0.61). Keenan has seen his snap share increase to 80%+ in his last 2 games, and post bye, the connection with Caleb Williams should improve. He has yet to go over his receiving line of 45.5 this season, but I lean towards his over.
Suggested Pick
“O” 45.5 Rec Yds (-115)
WR Rome Odunze
Rookie WR Rome Odunze is averaging 1.37 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. He has the highest aDOT on the team (14.7), meaning the Bears are using him more as a deep threat, relatively speaking. The Commanders play 2-high safeties at the 5th highest rate in the NFL (53.6%). Against 2-high, Odunze averages 1.56 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. Odunze’s pre-snap alignment has been 66% outside and 33% in the slot. The Commanders allow the 9th highest target share to outside WRs (42.5%) and the 6th highest target share to the slot (36.0%). The Commanders also play the 7th highest rate of man coverage. Against man coverage, Odunze only has a 12% target rate. Rome has been too inconsistent to trust.
Suggested Pick
“U” 33.5 Rec Yds (-115)
TE Cole Kmet
Kmet quietly leads the Bears receivers in YPRR (2.26) and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. As a TE, he splits his time between blocking and receiving, as he’s ran a route on only 55.2% of drop backs. The Commanders play 2-high safeties at the 5th highest rate in the NFL (53.6%). Against 2-high, Kmet leads the Bears with 2.45 YPRR. Kmet lines up 57.1% of the time in the slot and 32.1% of the time inline. The Commanders allow the 6th highest target share to the slot (36%), but the 2nd lowest target share to inline (6.5%). The last 2 TEs to play the Commanders broke out, with Ja’Tavion Sanders going for 61 and Mark Andrews going for 66 receiving yards. This is another nice spot to back Kmet at a low line, as he has covered 34.5 yards in 3 of L4 games, with the 1 under hooking at 34.
Suggested Pick
“O” 34.5 Rec Yds (-115)
50+ Rec Yds (+215)
60+ Rec Yds (+350)
Commanders Team Overview
QB Marcus Mariota
Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels has not practiced yet this week after leaving early last week due to a rib injury. Mariota will get the start if Daniels cannot go. Mariota stepped in well for Daniels last week, although expectations should be tempered considering they played arguably the worst team in the league, the Carolina Panthers. He threw for 205 passing yards and 2 TDs. He also ran the ball 11 times for 34 yards. The Bears have allowed the 9th fewest passing yards per game to opposing QBs. They are also allowing the 2nd fewest passing TDs. The Bears have the 7th highest pressure rate over expectations. They play zone defense 75.8% of the time (3rd highest), and run 1-high safety 57.2% of the time (10th highest). Considering Mariota has not started a meaningful NFL game in years, it’s hard to get a read with any of those splits. I think the Commanders lean on the run in this matchup if Jayden Daniels cannot go.
Suggested Pick
Lean “U” Passing Yds (line not out)
RB Brian Robinson
BRob is averaging 4.66 YPC on the season and has 6 rushing TDs. The Bears are allowing 4.6 YPC, 12th most. They have also allowed 6 rush TDs, which is league average. The Bears struggle more against man/gap concepts, as they allow 5.22 YPC and a 51.6% success rate. This compares to allowing 4.18 YPC and a 43.3% success rate against zone rush concepts. BRob is averaging 5.28 YPC in man/gap concepts, which 54.1% of his attempts have come from. He only averages 3.92 YPC in zone concepts, where 45.9% of his attempts have come from. Looking at the receiving aspect, the Bears are allowing the 6th fewest receiving yards per game to RBs. BRob only has a 28.4% route rate and 68 receiving yards on the season. I’m not sure how effective he’ll be, but with Mariota starting, I expect BRob to be used massively in the running game.
Suggested Pick
“O” 12.5 Rush Att -115
RB Austin Ekeler
Ekeler is averaging 5.88 YPC on the season and has 1 rush TD. The Bears are allowing 4.6 YPC, 12th most. They have also allowed 6 rush TDs, which is league average. The Bears struggle more against man/gap concepts, as they allow 5.22 YPC and a 51.6% success rate. This compares to allowing 4.18 YPC and a 43.3% success rate against zone rush concepts. Ekeler averages an insane 7.17 YPC in man/gap concepts, where he has seen 56.3% of his attempts. This compares to 3.77 YPC and 40.6% of his attempts in zone run concepts. Looking at the receiving aspect, the Bears are allowing the 6th fewest receiving yards per game to RBs. Ekeler is being used as the receiving back for Washington, as he has a 42.5% route rate and averages 33.5 receiving yards per game, compared to 11.3 for BRob. He has always been elite in the receiving game but a bad matchup against the Bears. Eleler does not get many carries at all which is leaving us little to no margin for error. Pass for me
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Terry McLaurin
Despite Daniels leaving early in the last game, McLaurin was still able to produce 98 receiving yards. On the season, McLaurin averages an elite 2.41 YPRR and has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He has a massive 1st-read rate of 28.8%. The Bears are allowing the 6th highest 1st read rate (75.6%) in the NFL. The Bears play zone defense 75.8% of the time (3rd highest) and run 1-high safety 57.2% of the time (10th highest). Terry is averaging 0.44 fantasy points per route run and a 22.3% target rate against zone coverage, both negative splits compared to man. The Bears have the 7th highest pressure rate over expectations. When faced with pressure, McLaurin averages 2.16 YPRR and has only been targeted on 13% of his routes. McLaurin has proved to be QB proof throughout his career and may be the only Commanders weapon worth trusting with an over. He has caught 4+ receptions in 80% of his L30 games.
Suggested Pick
“O” 3.5 Rec (-165)
WR Noah Brown
Brown is averaging 2.18 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. Last week, he only saw 1 target for 16 receiving yards. His route rate was 57.1% last week compared to a season average of 41.1%. The Bears play zone defense 75.8% of the time (3rd highest) and run 1-high safety 57.2% of the time (10th highest). Against zone coverage, Brown is averaging 0.41 fantasy points per route run and a 21.6% target rate, both positive splits compared to man. The Bears have the 7th highest pressure rate over expectations. Brown averages 0.79 YPRR and has been targeted on 13% of his routes when his QB is under pressure. With only 1 target last week with Mariota taking over for Daniels, it is hard to trust any production from the Commanders number 2 WR.
Suggested Pick
"U" 35.5 rec yds -160
TE Zach Ertz
Ertz is averaging 1.58 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. The Bears are around league average in terms of yards given up to opposing TEs (45.83 YPG). The Bears play zone defense 75.8% of the time (3rd highest) and run 1-high safety 57.2% of the time (10th highest). Against zone coverage, Ertz is averaging 2.09 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes, both positive splits. Ertz was still able to bring in 4 receptions for 40 yards last week despite Mariota taking over for Jayden Daniels. The Bears have the 7th highest pressure rate over expectations. When his QB has been under pressure, Ertz averages 1.56 YPRR and has a 25% target share. Backup QBs typically target TEs as a safety blanket, I like this spot for Ertz to produce.
Suggested Pick
“O” 28.5 Rec Yds (-115)
40+ Rec Yds (+180)
Game Prediction
The Bears are coming off 3 straight wins and a bye week. The Commanders on the other hand have their star rookie QB questionable and has yet to practice this week. Too many question marks for me to trust Marcus Mariota against an elite Bears defense. Caleb has looked better and better each week, and with all the weapons at his disposal, I like him to come out on top and cover the 3-point spread. Washington has been in some shootouts this season, and despite Daniels likely not playing, I think they continue to play at a fast pace and just barely cover the over.
Best Bet (Bears -2.5 -130)
Lean (Over 43.5 -110)
Bears 24 Commanders 20