Bills Team Overview
QB Josh Allen
Josh is averaging 211.9 passing yards per game, with a 108.4 passer rating (4th best amongst qualifying QBs). He has also added 25.6 rush yards per game. The Seahawks as a defense are allowing the 8th lowest pass rate over expectations, meaning they have been more of a run funnel. They rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. When Allen is pressured, he averages 7.72 YPA and holds a respectable 92.6 QB rating. This compares to 7.91 YPA and 115.8 QB rating without pressure. He also tends to scramble a lot when pressured. In 87 dropbacks that he was pressured, he scrambled 18 times for 142 yards and a TD. Looking at the Seahawks coverage scheme, they play zone 65.7% of the time (20th highest frequency) and run single-high 55.0% of the time (15th highest frequency). I don’t see any splits worth diving into in this regard considering they are around league average in everything. What is worth noting is that last week in Amari’s first game with the Bills, Josh had his best passing game of the season by a wide margin, throwing for 323 yards. With another week of practice under Amari’s belt, the connection with Allen should continue to improve, which could vastly improve the Bills passing game overall.
Suggested Pick
“O” 230.5 Passing Yds (-114)
RB James Cook
Cook is averaging 4.16 YPC and has scored 5 TDs this season. This ranks 27th and 7th respectively amongst qualifying RBs with 50+ attempts. He faces a Seattle defense that allows 4.97 YPC (5th most). The Seahawks allow 5.49 YPC and a 57.1% success rate against man/gap run concepts, compared to 5.16 YPC and a 50.0% success rate against zone concepts. Cook has better success in man/gap concepts, averaging 4.47 YPC, but they only account for 39% of his attempts. He only averages 3.96 YPC in zone concepts. The Seahawks defense is forcing the 8th highest rush rate over expected, and with the Bills being 3-point favorites, they could be more run heavy on the margin. However, looking at the Bills offensively, they were middle of the pack in terms of run vs zone rate over expectations. But last week, with the addition of Amari Cooper, they were number 1 in pass rate over expectations. Cooper unlocks the passing game, and as a result, I expect Cook to get less volume.
Suggested Pick
“U” 60.5 Rush Yds (-115)
WR Amari Cooper
Cooper caught 4 receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown in his Bills debut. He only had a 35% snap share. Look for that to increase with another week of practice. In 12 routes ran, Cooper lined up out wide 75% of the time. This is similar to his time in Cleveland, where he lined up outside on 79.4% of his routes. The Seahawks allow the 5th lowest target share to outside receivers. The Seahawks rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. Looking at Amari’s advanced statistics when his QB was pressured, he has only been targeted on 17% of his routes and averages 0.74 YPRR. It’s hard to compare considering he’s with a new team and a much better QB, but this is not an encouraging split considering he was targeted on 33% of his routes and averaged 1.94 YPRR when his QB was not pressured. Overall, there’s too much uncertainty on playing time and with a less-than-ideal matchup, I’ll pass.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Khalil Shakir
Prior to the Amari trade, Shakir operated as Josh Allen’s number 1 option. He leads the Bills in YPRR (2.53), has been targeted on 23% of his routes, and has a 1st-read target rate of 20.6%. He has operated as Josh’s underneath guy, with the lowest aDOT on the team (3.9). The Seahawks allow the 5th lowest target share to outside receivers, but the 11th highest target share to the slot. Shakir has run 74.2% of his routes from the slot. The Seahawks rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. When Josh Allen has been pressured, Shakir leads the Bills receivers in YPRR (2.37). Last week in Cooper’s debut, Shakir caught all 7 of his targets for 65 receiving yards. His aDOT was only 0.6 yards, lowest on the Bills. The Seahawks as a defense have allowed the lowest aDOT in the NFL, meaning Shakir is primed to be peppered with targets as the underneath guy, especially not being the focal point of opposing game plans anymore with the addition of Cooper.
Suggested Pick
“O” 3.5 Rec (-120)
5+ Rec (+175)
6+ Rec (+350)
7+ Rec (+750)
WR Keon Coleman
Keon had his best week of his rookie season last week against the Titans, catching 4 balls for 125 yards. He has been used more as a deep threat, as amongst the top 3 receivers for the Bills, he has the highest aDOT (13.5). The Seahawks as a defense have allowed the lowest aDOT in the NFL, this may not be a matchup to target Keon and his deep threat ability. Overall, he has averaged 2.17 YPRR (2nd on Bills) and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. The Seahawks rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. When Josh Allen is pressured, Coleman averages 1.11 YPRR and has been targeted on only 11% of his routes. Coleman primarily lines up out wide, as 93.3% of his routes have come from this alignment. The Seahawks allow the 5th lowest target share to outside receivers.
Suggested Pick
“U” 2.5 Rec (-115)
TE Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid is averaging 1.86 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. He has been used as a receiving TE about two-thirds of the time, with a 65.6% route rate. Prior to Amari Cooper joining the Bills, Kincaid led the Bills in 1st-read rate (21.9%). He did still see 6 targets for 52 yards last week, his best production of the season. The Seahawks are allowing the 5th most receiving yards to opposing TEs (58.43). The Seahawks rank 9th in pressure rate over expectations. When Allen is pressured, Kincaid’s YPRR average drops to 0.89 and he has only been targeted on 14% of his routes. Kincaid has lined up all over this season. 57.9% of the time in the slot, 26.9% inline, and 13.1% out wide. The Seahawks allow the 11th highest target share to the slot and the 7th highest target share to inline. Amari Coooper should help this entire passing game open up, Kincaid will be a beneficiary.
Suggested Pick
“O” 42.5 Rec Yds -114
Seahawks Team Overview
QB Geno Smith
Geno leads the league in passing yards per game (283.6) as the Seahawks have the highest pass rate over expectations. The Bills allow the 14th and 15th most passing yards and passing TDs to opposing QBs this season respectively. Geno will face a defensive line that has forced pressure at the 10th highest rate above expectations. When under pressure, Geno averages 5.64 YPA with a 51.5 QB rating, compared to 7.53 YPA and a 100.0 QB rating when not pressured. Looking at the Bills coverage scheme, they play 2-high safeties at a 54.8% rate (4th highest frequency) and play zone 73.5% of the time (7th highest frequency). Geno is averaging 7.45 YPA and a 90.5 QB rating against zone. He averages 7.85 YPA and a 103.2 QB rating against two-high. With DK Metcalf labeled as week-to-week with an MCL strain, Geno and the Seahawks could start to struggle in the passing game.
Suggested Pick
“U” 246.5 Passing Yds (-114)
RB Kenneth Walker III
Walker is averaging 4.66 YPC and 42.9% of his yards have come from explosive runs, which ranks 16th and 5th respectively amongst RBs with 50+ rush attempts. Kenneth will get a smash matchup against the Bills rush defense that has allowed 5.08 YPC and 38.1% of yards against have come from explosive runs, which ranks 4th and 6th most respectively. Looking at the Bills defensive line, they are allowing the 2nd most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.8). The Bills have been much worse against man/gap concepts compared to zone concepts. Against man/gap concepts, they are allowing 5.62 YPC (3rd highest) and a 48.5% success rate (14th highest). Against zone concepts, they are allowing only 3.73 YPC (6th lowest) and a 36.5% success rate (5th lowest). 53.8% of Kenneth’s attempts have been zone concepts, where he’s averaging 4.46 YPC. This compares to 44.6% of attempts being man/gap concepts, averaging 4.97 YPC. Another split worth mentioning is that Kenneth averages 5.2 YPC on shotgun runs compared to 4.1 YPC under center. The Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-most YPC to shotgun runs (5.9) and the 5th-fewest YPC to under center runs (3.6). The Bills are also allowing the 2nd most receiving yards to RBs. Kenneth has a 46.7% route share this season, which is way up from last year’s rate of 30.4%. He’s averaging 4.6 receptions and 32 receiving yards per game as a result. Overall, this is a matchup to back all-purpose yards for KWIII.
Suggested Pick
“O” 90.5 Rush+Rec Yds (-115)
110+ Rush+Rec Yds (+165)
120+ Rush+Rec Yds (+235)
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Metcalf is labeled week-to-week with an MCL strain, if he cannot play, JSN should see a boost in targets. JSN has been disappointing this season after many thought he’d break out in his sophomore season. He averages 45.6 receiving yards per game and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. The Bills play the 4th highest frequency of two-high safeties. Against 2-high, JSN is averaging 1.41 YPRR and a 19.3% target share. This compares to 1.00 YPRR and an identical 19.3% target share vs single-high. The Bills play zone coverage 73.5% of the time (7th highest), against zone coverage JSN averages 1.27 YPRR and has a 16.6% target share. It is worth noting that the Bills allow the lowest target share to outside aligned WRs (31.9%). This compares to the 8th highest target share to the slot (35.7%). JSN has run 86.8% of his routes from the slot this season. However, it is worth noting that he was positioned outside at the highest rate this season last week with DK going down. A lot of uncertainties with the DK injury, but he should see an increase in targets if DK is indeed ruled out.
Suggested Play
“O” 50.5 Rec Yds (-114)
WR Tyler Lockett
Lockett averages 1.69 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. His route rate participation has decreased from prior seasons due to age, now at 72.8% for the season. JSN has taken most of his slot role, as he has lined up out wide 67% of the time and in the slot 33%. This is bearish for Lockett, as the Bills allow the lowest target share to outside WRs (31.9%), compared to the 8th highest target share to the slot (35.7%). With Metcalf labeled week-to-week with an MCL strain, Lockett would see added volume if he ultimately cannot go. The Bills play the 4th highest frequency of two-high safeties. Against 2-high, Lockett averages 1.52 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. The Bills play zone coverage 73.5% of the time (7th highest), against zone Lockett has seen a 14.4% target rate, compared to 25.0% rate vs man.
Suggested Pick
“U” 58.5 Rec Yds (-115)
TE Noah Fant
Fant is averaging 1.34 YPRR and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. He has a 63.1% route rate participation. He has been used a lot in the slot, lining up there on 54.8% of his routes, compared to 24.4% inline. The Bills are right around league average in receiving yards against opposing TEs, averaging 45.14 YPG. The Bills allow the 8th highest target share to the slot (35.7%) and are league average in inline target rate (11.1%). The Bills play the 4th highest frequency of two-high safeties. Against two-high, Fant averages 1.31 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. The Bills play zone coverage 73.5% of the time (7th highest), against zone Fant has averaged 1.65 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. Metcalf’s injury will be key news to watch. If he can’t go, the rest of the Seahawks pass catchers should see a boost.
Suggested Pick
“O” 30.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Game Prediction
The Bills passing game was unlocked last week with the addition of Amari Cooper, as Josh Allen had his most productive game of the season, passing for 323 yards and 2 TDs. On the other side of the ball, DK Metcalf suffered an MCL strain, which should limit the explosiveness of the Seahawks offense after Geno led the league in passing to start the season. The Seahawks should be able to run against the Bills, but I think they will be forced to pass, as I expect Allen to come out slinging, taking the early lead. I’ll take Josh with added weapons.
Best Bet (Bills -2.5 -105)
Lean (Over 47.5 -102)
Bills 27 Seahawks 23