Saints Team Overview
QB Spencer Rattler
In 2 games where Derek Carr has been injured, Rattler is averaging 207.5 passing yards and has thrown for 1 TD and 2 interceptions. He’s also been sacked 11 times! The Saints will play a Chargers defense that is ranked 18th in pressure rate over expected, middle of the pack. The Chargers have allowed the 6th least passing yards to opposing QBs (198.7). They primarily play 2-high safeties, with the 3rd highest rate in the NFL (59.2%). They rank 2nd in zone tendency (82.1%). Against zone coverage, Rattler is averaging 5.88 YPA and holds a 78.3 QB rating. This compares to 4.56 YPA and a 41.9 QB rating vs man. This is a small sample size, so I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on it, but the rookie runs into another tough matchup.
Suggested Pick
“U” 175.5 Passing Yds (-115)
RB Alvin Kamara
Kamara started off the season hot, but has cooled off recently, which has coincided with the Saints downfall. On the season, he’s averaged 3.95 YPC, ranking 42nd amongst RBs with 25+ attempts. His receiving role has remained consistent however, as he’s averaging 8 targets per game L4. The Chargers allow the 10th most rushing yards per game to RB (83.8 YPG) and are middle of the pack in receiving yards to RB (31 YPG). Looking at adjusted yards before contact per attempt, which helps isolate for defensive line skill, ranks 12th best (1.72). This compares to the Saints offensive line, which ranks 17th averaging 1.89 adjusted yards before contact per attempt. With the Saints 7.5-point underdogs, I don’t see a lot of potential volume for Kamara as this Saints offense has really struggled without Carr.
Suggested Pick
“U” 54.5 Rush Yds (-110)
WR Chris Olave
All signs point to Olave returning this week after missing last week with a concussion. Olave is averaging 2.15 YPRR and has been targeted on 22% of his routes. He has a 1st-read rate of 20.4%. With Shaheed out for the season, Olave will be the clear number 1 target for rookie QB Spencer Rattler. The Chargers primarily play 2-high safeties, with the 3rd highest rate in the NFL (59.2%). Against 2-high, olave averages 1.92 YPRR and has been targeted on 21% of his routes. The Chargers rank 2nd in zone tendency (82.1%). Against zone, Olave averages 2.32 YPRR and has been targeted on 20% of his routes. Looking at alignment, Olave has lined up out wide 67% of the time. The Chargers are allowing the 3rd lowest target share to wide aligned WRs (32.9%). Despite not being the greatest matchup, Olave’s line is set at 47.5 receiving yards. With Rattler likely to pepper Olave with targets, I’d lean over.
Suggested Pick
“O” 47.5 Rec Yds (-115)
WR Bub Means
With Shaheed out for the season, rookie WR Bub Means steps into the number 2 receiver role. He has 45 and 37 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks. He averages 1.05 YPRR and has been targeted on 18% of his routes. In 78 routes, he has aligned out wide 66.7% of the time. The Chargers are allowing the 3rd lowest target share to wide aligned WRs (32.9%). The Chargers primarily play 2-high safeties, with the 3rd highest rate in the NFL (59.2%). Against 2-high, Means averages 1.38 YPRR and has been targeted 18% of his routes. The Chargers rank 2nd in zone tendency (82.1%). Against zone, Means averages 1.02 YPRR and has been targeted on 17% of his routes. With Olave’s likely return, it’ll be interesting to see if less defensive attention, but less attention from Rattler helps or hurts him.
Suggested Pick
Lean “U” Rec Yds (line not out)
TE Juwan Johnson
Juwan is averaging 19.4 receiving yards per game, has ran a route on 57% of the Saints dropbacks, and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. He faces a Chargers defense that has allowed the 2nd most targets and receptions to opposing TEs. The Chargers play 2-high safeties at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL (59.2%). Against 2-high, Juwan is averaging 0.71 YPRR and has been targeted on 11% of his routes. Against single-high, Juwan averages 1.36 YPRR and has been targeted on 19% of his routes. It’s also important to look at his zone vs man splits since the Chargers play the 2nd highest rate of zone (82.1%). Juwan averages 1.04 YPRR and 14% TPRR vs zone, compared to 0.88 YPRR and 19% TPRR vs man. With Shaheed out for the season and Olave in concussion protocol, look for Juwan to potentially see an increase in targets. He saw a season high 6 targets last week.
Suggested Pick
“O” Receptions (line not out)
Chargers Team Overview
QB Justin Herbert
The Chargers were extremely run-heavy the first 4 games of the season, but Herbert has thrown for 237 and 349 passing yards in the past 2 weeks on 34 and 39 attempts respectively. Now he’ll face a New Orleans defense that is allowing the 6th most passing yards per game (261.3), but the 3rd lowest passing TDs per game (0.71). The Saints rank 18th in pressure rate over expected and their coverage scheme is balanced. They play single-high 50.9% of the time, and run zone 64.7% of the time, both towards the middle of the pack. The Saints defense forces the 4th highest pass rate over expected. However, with the Chargers having the 4th lowest pass rate over expected, it’s hard to find a compelling angle to play here.
Suggested Pick
Pass
RB JK Dobbins
Dobbins has seen a resurgence this season, averaging 5.03 yards per carry, 12th amongst RBs with 50+ carries. He has strong command of the Chargers backfield, with a 64%+ snap share in 4 straight games. This is a smash matchup, as the Saints allow the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (3.16). They also allow the 2nd most YPC overall (5.41). The Saints defense has really struggled against man/gap concepts. They allow a 65.2% success rate and 6.21 YPC. This matches up with where Dobbins has seen more success. He has a 46% success rate and averages 5.12 YPC in man/gap concepts, compared to a 38% success rate and 4.93 YPC in zone concepts. Would love to target Dobbins rushing yards in a game where the Chargers are 7.5-point favorites, and the Chargers are 4th in run-rate over expectations.
Suggested Pick
“O” 74.5 Rush Yds (-115)
90+ Rush Yds (+180)
100+ Rush Yds (+290)
WR Ladd McConkey
The Chargers rookie WR is averaging 1.77 YPRR and has been targeted on 25% of his routes and has a 27.5% 1st read target rate (#1 in all stats amongst LAC WRs). McConkey primarily lines up out of the slot, at a 69.3% rate, compared to 28.7% out wide. The Saints allow the 5th highest target share to wide alignment (44.7%), compared to the 19th highest target share to the slot (32.0%). They also allow the 3rd lowest target share to the opponent's 1st read, which would primarily be McConkey. Despite the Saints allowing the 5th most receiving yards overall to WRs, looking at the splits further makes me want to fade McConkey. Especially in a game script which should be run first for the Chargers.
Suggested Pick
“U” Rec Yds (line not out)
WR Josh Palmer
Quentin Johnston missed practice Thursday, so expectations are that Josh Palmer will be the WR2 for the Chargers. Palmer averages 1.53 YPRR and has been targeted on 15% of his routes. However, in week 7 without QJ, he had his best game of the season, catching 4 receptions for 63 yards. Last week without QJ, Palmer ran 58.1% of his routes from out wide and 41.9% from the slot. The Saints allow the 5th most receiving yards to opposing WRs (166.14 YPG). The Saints allow the 5th highest target share to wide alignment (44.7%), compared to the 19th highest target share to the slot (32.0%). The Saints coverage scheme is balanced compared to the league, so it will not add any value looking at any splits from that perspective.
Suggested Pick
Lean “O” Rec Yds if QJ out (line not out)
TE Will Dissly
Dissly averages 2.37 YPRR and has been targeted on 31% of his routes. He only has a 43.5% route rate. The Saints allow the 10th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. Dissly has lined up inline on 63% of his routes, 23.5% from the slot, and 12.3% from out wide. The Saints allow the 7th lowest target share to TE (9.1%), the 5th highest target share to wide alignment (44.7%), and the 19th highest target share to the slot (32.0%). His best game of the season came last week without Quentin Johnston. He caught 8 receptions on 11 targets for 81 yards. The Saints are pretty much around league average in terms of defensive coverage scheme, so there's no value in looking at splits. This is an average matchup, depending on the line and if QJ is ruled out, I would target his over just based on pure volume from Justin Herbert.
Suggested Pick
Pass (line not out)
Game Prediction
This should be an ugly game, as on 1 side we have a rookie QB in Spencer Rattler who has not looked promising, and on the other side we have a Chargers defense that has been solid. The Chargers have been extremely run heavy when with a lead this season, and I expect coach Harbaugh to go back to that this week. Should be a very slow-paced game. I lean New Orleans with the points, just because I think it is a tad too much for what I expect to be a low scoring affair. Olave being back for Rattler might be just enough for the Saints to cover this massive spread.
Best Bet (Under 41.5 -110)
Lean (NO +7.5 -130)
Chargers 20 Saints 17