Colts vs Texans @1:00 EST

QB Anthony Richardson

This is a tough matchup for a QB that has struggled as a passer and staying on the field this season. HOU is allowing the lowest completion %, 29th most passing yards per game, 31st yards per attempt and 28th highest yards after contact %. They are a good coverage team (13th best) according to PFF too. Richardson did clear his passing yard line in week 1 vs HOU, but barely and it required an incredible 4th quarter from this team. Four of the last six QB’s to face this HOU defense have thrown for under 200 passing yards. Even Jordan Love had his fewest passing yardage total of the season against this defense. This HOU defense also forces plenty of turnover-worthy throws (5.6%), which ranks them 5th highest. Richardson has 1+ INT in 3 of 4 healthy games and his only under was against MIA, who have one of the lowest turnover-worthy throw %’s in the league this season. Richardson might have more success as a runner in this game and cleared this mark vs HOU in week 1. HOU has allowed an average of 28 rushing yards per game to QB’s this season ,which ranks them 5th highest.

Suggest Picks
‘U’ 195.5 Passing Yards -115
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions -145
‘O’ 38.5 Rushing Yards -110

RB Jonathan Taylor

JT is finally making his debut after suffering a high ankle sprain. The questions will be… how does he look? What is his workload like? Those are tough to tell, at least at the moment of writing this. He had a fantastic rushing day in week one versus this HOU team with 188 yards on 30 attempts and a TD. Dating back to last season, Taylor has at least one rushing touchdown in 9 of his L10 games, averaging 1.1 rushing TD’s per game. HOU is allowing the 25th most rushing yards per game this season, the 28th highest yards per carry, 25th highest TD rate and 7th highest stuff %. JT runs in both zone and gap, but almost double the amount in a zone scheme. HOU ranks 18th in success rate to zone concepts versus allowing the lowest success rate in the map/gap concept. There are just too many question marks about his usage, re-injury chance and effectiveness to put my hard earned cash on one of his props. 

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1+ TD -105

WR Michael Pittman

After a really slow start, Pittman has been better of late. He’s always been more of a possession receiver than a big play threat. He’s still not being used enough to make his props really enticing. He’s been under 4.5 receptions in 5 of 7 games and all games with Richardson at QB. He has also been under his receiving yards line in 5 of 7. HOU’s defense ranks 31st yards per attempt and 28th highest yards after contact %. If I’m looking at an over, it’s certainly receptions, but I’m expecting a lower passing output once again from Richardson. Pittman is getting more looks vs zone coverages than man this season and HOU runs man and zone about equally in terms of league averages. He averaging an 18.2% target share, 21.1% of team’s yardage and a 12.00 yards per reception. Meanwhile against zone, he’s averaging a 24.3% target share, 22.3% of team’s yardage and 12.52 YPR. 

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‘U’ 50.5 Receiving Yards -120

WR Josh Downs

Josh Downs has been incredible… when Richardson is not on the field. In two full games with Richardson this season, Down has a total of 8 targets and 4 catches for 25 yards. YIKES. When Flacco has played, Downs has looked like a breakout star with games of 82, 69 and 66 yards and two touchdowns. He has much preferred Pierce’s deep ball ability to Downs. Until I see the two develop some chemistry, it’s under or pass for me.

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‘U’ 39.5 Receiving Yards -113

TE Mo Alie-Cox

HOU is allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing TE’s this season (23.4 per game) and receptions per game (2.86). He doesn’t even have lines yet, but I’m looking at the unders if they drop. He has one or fewer receptions in 5 of 7 games this season and both of the overs with Flacco at QB. Even if I have to pay for some juice, an under 1.5 receptions is enticing.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 1.5 Receptions (when/if it opens)

QB C.J. Stroud

Stroud finds himself in a good matchup against a defense that seemingly can’t stop the pass or run. IND is allowing the 8th most passing yards per game, 8th highest yards per attempt and 8th highest passer ratings to opposing QB’s. They have allowed the 7th highest completion % and 9th highest aDOT. After a down passing game vs GB, a much better defense, this looks like a solid bounceback spot for Stroud. What I worry about is that the ground game is doing so well, he doesn’t have to push the envelope. With that being said, Stroud is much better at home this season. He’s over the 235 passing mark in all 3 home starts and is averaging 312 passing yards per game. In fact, he’s cleared 235 in 8 of his L10 home games dating back to last season. Missing Collins is a big deal though and he’s been under this mark in 2 of 3 career games without Nico. IND is allowing just the 20th highest turnover-worthy throw % and Stroud has just 1 INT in 3 home games. He also did not throw an INT in game one vs IND and did not in 2 games last season.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 236.5 Passing Yards -113
‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions -142

RB Joe Mixon

This looks great for Mixon who had 159 rushing yards on 30 carries in week one vs this IND team. How have the recent RB’s fared? Achane (without Tua)(15 for 77) and Bigsby (13 for 101, 2 TD’s). They also gave up a massive rushing game to Jacobs (32 for 151) in week 2 as well. IND has allowed the 2nd most rushing yards per game this season, along with the 10th highest yards after contact per attempt (2.4). Mixon primarily runs in the zone rushing scheme and IND allows the 10th highest success rate in zone compared to the 16th highest in man/gap. All signs point to another high usage productive day for Mixon here.

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‘O’ 76.5 Rushing Yards -120
‘O’ 17.5 Rushing Attempts -115

WR Stefon Diggs

Diggs continues to be the primary guy with Collins still out. He’s had 5+ receptions in the last 5 weeks and in 6 of 7 this season. He’s also had 65+ receiving yards in 4 of the last 5 weeks, besides the overall offensive stinker vs GB last week. Diggs owns a better yards per reception value against zone than he does man coverage (10.41 vs 9.20) and has a slightly higher overall team yardage share. IND runs zone at the 6th highest rate this season and runs Cover 3 at the second highest rate of any team. Diggs has excelled vs Cover 3 this year with a higher target %, catch rate and team yardage share. This looks like a nice spot for both him and Stroud to get back on track.

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‘O’ 5.5 Receptions +104
‘O’ 60.5 Receiving Yards -113
1+ TD +130

WR Tank Dell

Theoretically, this might be a nice spot for Dell. Despite the good numbers Stroud and Diggs has against IND’s coverages, they also allow the 7th highest deep throw %. The problem is you just can’t trust him to get the looks he needs. He is coming off a 4 target, zero-catch week against GB. He’s been under his 4.5 reception mark in both home games this season and in the season opener against this Colts team. He’s only seen more than 4 targets in 2 of his last 5 games. I’m having a hard time seeing a path for success here even without Collins. Teams are focusing more on him now which is giving him troubles

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‘U’ 4.5 Receptions -109

TE Dalton Schultz

Unlike HOU, IND allows a lot of yardage and receptions to opposing TE’s. They have allowed the 4th most receptions (6.14) per game and 10th most receiving yards per game. Schultz has 4 receptions in 2 of his L3, the under being the poor performance vs GB. In the last 5 weeks, he’s had at least 5 targets in 4 games. Schultz holds a decent aDOT for a TE at 8.0. Against a zone defense, Schultz can be an outlet for some easy receptions and his 33 targets ranks one behind Tank Dell. He has played the most passing snaps on the team this season and they move him around - 76 snaps out of the slot, 155 in-line and 27 out wide.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions +110

This looks like a really nice bounce back spot for HOU back at home. IND’s defense is made of swiss cheese and we need to see some more consistency out of Richardson. He won’t face an easy task Sunday against a HOU defense that is rounding into form. Too many question marks around IND’s star running back in his first game coming off a high ankle sprain. Gimme HOU laying the points here.

Best Bet (HOU -4.5 -110)
Lean (IND TT ‘U’ 21.5 Points -156)
Lean (Under 46.5 -120)
Texans 27 Colts 17