Ravens vs Browns @1:00 EST

QB Lamar Jackson

Lamar is having another MVP-type season and adding Henry has been the perfect compliment. The last 3 games he has thrown for 280+ passing yards and has yet to rush for less than 40 yards this season. This season CLE runs man coverage at the 2nd highest rate, have allowed the 23rd most passing yards per game (206.6), are allowing the highest deep throw % in the league, have the highest pressure rate (42.5%) and hold the 3rd shortest average time to throw this season. What does this all mean? Well, they are a good passing defense. Add into this that this is a classic AFC North divisional game and you aren’t running to take the overs. According to PFF, they rank 5th in pass rush, first in run defense, but 25th in coverage and 31st in tackling grades. Interestingly, Lamar has cleared 50 rushing yards against all 4 top 15 pass rushing defenses this season. With the pass rush being really good and the coverage not, it could create longer passing opportunities for Lamar given the extra time he can create with his legs as a passer. CLE does allow the 2nd lowest completion %, which makes sense given the higher deep throw %. Interestingly, Lamar has been under this week’s pass attempts mark in every win this season, besides the OT slugfest with CIN. He’s also been under in 4 of the last 5 against CLE.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 28.5 Pass Attempts -132
‘O’ 49.5 Rushing Yards -115

RB Derrick Henry

Henry has been an absolute monster this season, but if you are picking a spot to fade him this might be it. He’s had 80+ rushing yards in his last six games and 125+ in 4 of those. CLE ranks as the best rush defense according to PFF and this defense has allowed the 15th most rushing yards per game this season. A lot of that is likely due to game script since they rank 10th in rushing attempts allowed. One concerning stat here is that they rank 5th in explosive run %. If you’ve watch Henry, the concern is him breaking the long gainer. What’s interesting is that despite this, they also rank 11th in stuff %. This isn’t an under that I love, but if I had to plant a flag, I’d take the under on Henry’s rushing yards.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 97.5 Rushing Yards -115

WR Zay Flowers

Will Flowers play? He’s been a DNP both Wed and Thurs, but returned to practice on Friday. I’m guessing he’ll be a go for this Sunday. There isn’t a more “you are right or you are wrong” player than Flowers. He owns three 90+ yard games this season and 5 less than 40-yard games. With that being said, this matchup fits where he excels. CLE runs man at the 2nd highest rate. Flowers has a 10.6 aDOT, 27.4 target share, 32.3 team yardage % and 8.82 yards per target. Vs zone he holds a smaller 5.7 aDOT, 22.1 TGT %, 18.1 team yardage % and similar 9.11 YPT. He excelled against this team last season too with a 56 and 73-yard receiving game. I won’t be target receptions here, but receiving yards looks enticing!

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 57.5 Receiving Yards -115

WR Rashod Bateman

Bateman exceeds more vs zone this season. He owns an 18.6 aDOT, 13.1 TGT% and 17.56 YPT against zone. Versus man he owns just a 11.6 aDOT, 22.6 TGT% and 8.07 YPT. So he does get more targets vs man, but his better production relies against zone coverage. As a result, he’s a pass for me from a receiving yards and receptions perspective. However, his LR is likely going to be interesting when it’s released.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ Longest Reception (when released) Play to 22.5 

TE Mark Andrews

Welcome back to relevance, Mark! He’s coming off 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games and 40+ receiving yards in his last 3. Andrews has been better against man this season than zone. Specifically, we see his target share jump from 10.7% vs zone to 19.2% vs man coverage. Andrews will likely be used to block to help a good CLE pass rush, but it should free him up for some quick releases underneath as an outlet for Lamar in the middle of the field. 2.5 receptions seem like a nice line given his recent success. He has 3+ receptions in his last 3 games and 4+ targets in all of them. The yardage is a solid look too, but I find the reception line more appealing here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 2.5 Receptions -109

QB Jameis Winston

“I don’t know” is my first thought. The last time Jameis started a game was September 25th, 2022 for the Saints! Let’s start with what we know. Jameis is a gunslinger and isn’t afraid to throw down the field. Last week he came in as the third QB in the game and threw a touchdown in one drive (the final drive). BAL allows the most passing yards per game this season (308.5), 2nd most passing attempts/game, 3rd highest yards per attempt, and tied for the 3rd most passing touchdowns allowed (14). Seemingly a good match for a gunslinger. The question is who is he throwing to? Only that final drive he really spread the ball around, but Jeudy and Njoku were his top targets (as they should be). BAL does force some interceptions and that is something Jameis is known for. He had 3 starts in 2022 as the Saints QB and had 5 INT’s between those three games.

Suggest Picks
‘O’ 0.5 Interceptions -210
‘O’ 224.5 Passing Yards -130

RB Nick Chubb

A nice debut from Chubb after returning from his nasty injury. Although he saw just a 36% snap share in his debut and faces a tough BAL defense this week. BAL has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game this season (68.4), the lowest YPC (3.26) and the 3rd lowest explosive run %. Even if he sees a 50%+ snap share this week, clearing 46.5 rushing yards could be tough here. Not to mention a negative game script is likely. I’m out on Chubb this week and there is really no incentive for CLE to rush him back to a bigger workload. They lost their starting QB and are pretty much already out of the playoff race here.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 49.5 Rushing Yards -120

WR Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy is interesting to me this week. He should be the number 1 in CLE now that Cooper is gone and Jameis did like to prioritize him in his single TD drive last week. Of Jameis’ 11 pass attempts, 4 were to Jeudy and several were downfield. BAL is allowing the most passing yards per game this season and we’ll likely see a passing heavy game script in this one. BAL runs man and zone coverages at similar rates compared to the league average. Jeudy can be a breakaway threat and Jameis isn’t afraid to chuck it. As a result, I like the receiving yards look here.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 41.5 Receiving Yards -115
1+ TD +310

TE David Njoku

Another guy Jameis liked to focus on and capped off his only drive with a touchdown to Njoku. Of the 11 passing attempts, 3 went to Njoku, but all were relatively short attempts. Njoku might act more as the outlet pass and redzone target in this one. BAL is allowing the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing TE’s this season (76.6) and 3rd most receptions (6.43) per game. A 5.5 reception mark and 57.5 receiving line are a little too rich for my blood, especially given the unknown around how the offense will look under Jameis in a full game. One of the few spots, I will just fully pass on.

Suggested Picks
Pass

Game Prediction

The Ravens should win this game and I don’t think it’ll be all that sweaty… but laying 9.5 to an AFC North division matchup on the road? No thanks. I’ll go ahead and take the points here. One thing we should expect is an offensive that can move the ball down the field under Winston. It also helps that BAL’s secondary has been awful. Could easily see a back door cover here, as the Ravens tend to get complacent in the 2nd half of games. These AFC North games always tend to be close and lean towards the under. It’s either CLE with the points or pass for me.

Best Bet (CLE +9.5 -117)
Lean (Under 45.5 -118)
Ravens 24, Browns 20