Cardinals vs Dolphins @1:00 EST

QB Kyler Murray

From a throwing perspective this is not a good matchup for Kyler. MIA has allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season (164.8) and 26th in yards per attempt (6.47 YPA). However, that may be due more to gameflow and who they’ve faced rather than an elite MIA coverage unit. Their coverage unit ranks 28th in the league this season and the defense as a whole ranks 28th in tackling. They have faced the likes of Richardson, Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett. MIA’s defense does bring good pressure rates this season, ranking 5th, with a 38% pressure rate. Kyler has only cleared 200 passing yards in 3 of 7 games this season. His ball security has been good though so far. What could be contributing to that is ARI runs the slowest paced offense in the league. Kyler has only allowed 3 interceptions across 7 games and 3rd lowest in turnover-worthy throw %. Meanwhile MIA ranks 5th lowest in turnover-worthy throws forced and only have 3 interceptions forced on the season. With Tua back into the fold, we know how a team can get into catch-up mode if this offense is once again clicking. When Kyler decides to use his legs, good things can happen. MIA is allowing the fewest rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season, but given who they have faced it might be somewhat misleading. Something interesting is that in games without 10 points for ARI, Kyler has had 45+ rushing yards in 4 of 4. When they have been larger than 10 points, he’s only been over 20 rushing yards once.
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‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions -130

RB James Connor

If we throw out the game in which Connor got hurt and only played 28 snaps, he’s had 50+ rushing yards in 5 of 6 games and 85+ in four of those. MIA presents as a solid matchup, allowing 113.3 rushing yards per game to opposing RB’s, which is 9th highest in the league. Connor runs in both gap and zone concepts, but runs gap (73 attempts) over double of zone (34 attempts). That’s a good thing for this matchup, as MIA allows the 20th highest success rate to the gap concept vs 24th to zone. Connor hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in 3 weeks, but had tough matchups. LAC has only allowed one touchdown all season to an RB, while GB and SF have only allowed 5 and 6 rushing TD’s to RB’s over 7 games. MIA has allowed 9 touchdown to opposing RB’s and one through the air as well. Connor’s rushing output can be variable depending on the early success, but I think he could end his rushing TD drought here.
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1+ TD -103

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Harrison has been on quite the rollercoaster. After being held catchless in week 1, he broke out in weeks 2 and 3. Since then, he has put up very mediocre stat lines of 45, 36 and 21 receiving yards on 6, 7 and 6 targets. The passing offense volume is troubling to count on Harrison Jr. Pairing a very slow-tempoed offense with a defense that hasn’t given up a ton of yards through the air does not make a good over combo. It’s a small sample size, but Harrison has dominated man coverage this season. He owns a 36.4% target share, 52.9% team yardage percentage and 11 yards per route run. Comparably, he owns only a 17.8% target share, 18% team yardage percentage, but an 18.27 YPR. The YPR is likely skewed by the blown coverages in week 2, but ultimately I think this is showing us man coverage is a much better matchup for him. Unfortunately, MIA runs zone coverage at the 14th highest rate this season and man coverage at the 17th highest rate.

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‘U’ 4.5 Receptions -165

WR Greg Dortch

Dortch is a hard guy to nail down. His snap rates are kind of all over the place. In 3 games this season, he’s played 40% or less of snaps, while he’s played 60%+ in the other 4 games. Now, he has yet to have back to back games below 60% and is coming off a season-low 30% snap share. When he’s had the 60%+ he has cleared this line in every game. A more negative game flow is likely here assuming Tua plays and I think this is a solid buy-low spot for him even with some juice behind this prop.
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‘O’ 1.5 Recpetions -165

TE Trey McBride

All the talk is about MHJ, but McBride is the true WR1 on this team. He leads the team in targets (43), receptions (33), receiving yards (322) and yards per route run (1.9). Meanwhile, MIA is allowing the 4th fewest receiving yards to opposing TE’s and 7th fewest receptions per game. MIA is also only allowing the 18th highest checkdown %. I still don’t know if I care if this is a bad matchup or not. With a receiving prop line at 48.5, it feels like the poor matchup has been baked in. He saw a season-high 95% snap-share last week and has exceeded 50 receiving yards in the last 3 weeks. I certainly don’t think I like over 5.5 receptions, but he’s a dynamic enough player to clear this 50-yard mark. He has yet to have less than 6 targets in a game this season and is averaging 8 targets per game over his last 3.
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‘O’ 47.5 Receiving Yards -113

QB Tua Tagovailoa

It is hard to get a read on how aggressive and/or rusty Tua will be after taking some time off to recover from another concussion. The books think he’ll be just fine laying a 255.5 passing yard prop in this one. ARI has allowed the lowest turnover-worthy throw % in the league this season, despite having 3 picks to show for it. ARI has also allowed the 7th most passing yards allowed per game (247.4) and the highest yards per attempt (8.3). They do not create good pressure, ranking 23rd at just under 30% and allowing the second highest completion % (71.3%). This could look like a smash spot for the passing offense, but they also allow plenty on the ground. ARI does rank as the 28th highest deep throw % and are dead last in 1st read %. This ARI team forces their opponents to allow shorter throws while trying to take away the deep ball. Should be an interesting matchup given how MIA is built on explosive plays. ARI ranks 12th in tackling, despite being graded out as the 2nd worst pass coverage unit only behind LV. I’m not sure this is a recipe for a big Tua to Tyreek game given the matchup. Given what Tua has gone through, it feels like rushing yards under is also worth a look once it’s released.

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‘O’ 20.5 Completions -117

RB De’Von Achane

Achane is happy to have Tua back, but I’m a little skeptical from a rushing perspective. ARI is allowing the 6th most rushing yards per game this season, but not only is Tua back, but Mostert is once again a part of this backfield. In the season opener when both Tua and Mostert were playing, Achane only rushed 10 times for 24 yards. Monster will likely cut into some of Achane’s rushing workload and part of that is to keep Achane healthy. I am more interested in Achane as a receiver. In the two games with Tua this season, Achane has registered 76 and 69 receiving yards on 7 targets in each game. That’s a part of Achane’s game that should stay consistent even with Mostert back in the fold. Arizona is a middle of the pack team in receiving yards allowed to RB’s, but they do allow the 11th highest checkdown % (10.5%). 

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‘O’ 22.5 Receiving Yards -120
40+ (+200)
60+ (+550)

WR Tyreek Hill

Hill has publicly said how happy he is to have Tua back. I’m not sure this is an ideal matchup for Hill, though. Firstly, we don’t know how rusty or careful Tua will be in his first start back. We knoe these two have a good connection, but ARI is allowing the 28th high deep throw % to opposing passing attacks and the lowest first-read throw % in the league. Hill is a do-it-all WR, but he does rely a lot on the deep ball and is primarily the first read on a majority of passing plays. We have seen WR1’s be limited against this ARI secondary: McConkey (5 for 46), Reed (6 for 28), McLaurin (7 for 52). At least from a yardage perspective. Now, Tua may look like his old self right away and Tyreek is better than all of these receivers I’ve mentioned, but I don’t think this is the spot to be looking over.

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‘U’ 85.5 Receiving Yards -120

WR Jaylen Waddle

Here’s the guy I’m interested in. Waddle ,like Hill, has been very silent with a different QB under center the last few weeks. Waddle owns the lower aDOT than Hill (8.0 vs 12.8), but is the clear #2 WR in this offense. When you look off your 1st-read, what do you do? Look at your second read and Waddle is clearly the guy to fill that role. Despite inconsistent QB play, he still has 4+ receptions in 5 of 6 games this season. He’s still second on this team in targets and receptions and his catch rate remains above 70%. Despite Hill’s presence, Waddle remains one of the more underrated players on this team. I like backing him here more than Hill given the matchup.

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‘O’ 3.5 Receptions -165
‘O’ 4.5 Receptions +130

TE Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith has been one of my favorite overs the last few weeks on the TE sheet. He might be worth a look again this week. MIA has allowed the 8th most receiving yards to opposing TE’s and 13th most receptions per game. As I mentioned in Achane’s section, ARI does rank 11th in checkdown %, which includes both running back and tight ends. He’s not a flashy options, but has cleared this line in each of the last 2 weeks with 5 and 7 receptions for 62 and 96 receiving yards. Yes, I know that was without Tua, but after week 1 when he only saw a 28th snap %, he caught 6 balls for 53 yards with Tua on a 42% snap share. He hasn’t had a sub-38% snap share since so I think he’ll continue to be a part of this passing attack. He registered a season-high 49% snap share last week.

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‘O’ 2.5 Receptions -133

It’s hard to know exactly what we will get out of Tua and ARI has been playing pretty well of late. I think this is a good spot for MIA though. Tua should be playing and a majority of MIA’s weapons are healthy. It’s all about weighing the upside and downside. If Tua looks completely right, and it’s not like he’s coming back from an arm or leg injury, this offense could be back to being a monster. Even if we get a conservative Tua, ARI has shown us they can’t consistently put up points and the offensive yardage always looks underwhelming. If we see a rusty MIA offense, the under is certainly in play as well.

Best Bet (MIA -2.5 -145)
Lean (Under 46.5 -113)
Dolphins 26, Cardinals 20