Titans vs Lions @1:00 EST

QB Mason Rudolph

The Titans are in for a tough game ahead, with Rudolph starting. Although it's a great matchup as the Lions allow the second-most pass attempts (38.2) and fifth-most passing yards (264.5). Unfortunately, I'm not sure it matters, as Rudolph has a 59.6 completion percentage and averages 150 passing yards per game. The Lions run the fifth most man coverage in the league, running the coverage at a 40.3% clip. Teams play the Titans in man coverage 43% of the time, where Rudolph really struggles. His completion percentage drops to 50% for just 65 yards.

Suggested Pick:
1+ Interception (-165)

RB Tony Pollard

With Tyjae Spears set to miss another week, Pollard should see similar usage as last week, where he saw 89% of the snaps and 18 total touches. However, they may not be high-quality touches, as while the Lions struggle against the pass and receivers, they make up for it in the run game, as they are facing the fewest rush attempts per game and allow the third-fewest rushing yards to RBs, which is unfortunate for Pollard as he's 16th in the league in rushing yards (400) and yards per attempt (4.3) this season. Pollard has had great success against the man/gap run scheme, recording 300 of his 400 yards with a 4.62 yards per carry, compared to his 3.45 against zone concept. Unfortunately for Pollard, the Lions run zone concept 43.8% of the time and allow 2.85 yards per carry, which doesn't bode well for Pollard to succeed in this game. He may need to be used more in the pass game, especially with Rudolph under centre who has a 5.8 aDoT, ranking 52nd out of 60 qualified QBs.

Suggested Pick:
Tony Pollard o3.5 Receptions (-105)

WR Calvin Ridley

After the DeAndre Hopkins trade, Ridley has been given the keys to all of the receiving work here in Tennessee. He already leads the team in targets (33) and receiving yards (183), and now, he's primed with a juicy matchup against the Lions, who allow the most receptions (18.2) and receiving yards (213.2) to WRs. The Lions run fifth most man coverage in the league for an average of 40.3% of the time. However, Ridley has struggled to create separation in man coverage, catching on three of his 10 targets for 27 yards. But that production may not be his fault as only five of those targets were deemed catchable. Which just goes to show the level of QB play he's received.However, if Rudolph and Ridley are able to connect, it might be through a deep ball, as the Lions are allowing a 10.9% deep ball catch percentage. Ridley is the Titans deep ball threat, as he leads the team in aDoT with an 18.6 average depth of target.

Suggested Pick:
Calvin Ridley 30+ Longest Reception (+270)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo

Chiggy hasn't really been much of an option in this Titans offence this season. He's only been targetted 17 times this season for 107 receiving yards. But it's not like Okonkwo has even been used more as a blocker in this offence; he's been a pass blocker on just five of 138 passing snaps. He's just really not involved as a weapon in this offence. And even though the Lions have a poor pass defence, they're great against TEs, averaging just 27.2 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions to the position this season.

Suggested Pick:
"U" 23.5 receiving yards (-110)

QB Jared Goff

Jared Goff has been on a historical completion percentage pace, completing 84% of his passes. However, he might have it in for himself this week, as the Titans, while a poor team, have limited opposing QBs to just 179 yards per game, which ranks as the second-fewest in the league. Tennessee runs the 10th most man coverage at 28.6%. Goff does very well against the coverage, completing 73.5% of his passes, with the league lead in yards per attempt with 12.79 and 154.79 passer rating. The Titans struggle to get pressure the QB with the fourth lowest pressure rate grade on PFF, which is great for Goff, as his completion percentage goes from 69(nice).2% when pressured to 75.4%. Despite the low passing volume and poor matchup, the run game is an even tougher matchup, so the Lions may need to rely more on Goff's arm in this game.

Suggested Pick:
Jared Goff o1.5 Passing TDs (-130)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery

As mentioned above, this Titans run defence is no joke. They've been consistent through the last two seasons and carried that over to this season, where they allow 72.5 rushing yards (fifth fewest) per game to RBs despite allowing the 18th most rush attempts (21). Now, which running back of the two are we predicting gets the bulk of the work in this game? Tennessee runs the zone concept scheme 49.1% of the time, compared to the man/gap, which they run 36.6%. We have clear splits for the two running backs with these coverages. Gibbs leads the Lions in runs against zone concept with 52 and a 64.2% clip (to Montgomery's 55.9%), while Montgomery leads in runs against man/gap with 33 and a 39.2% clip (to Gibbs' 30.8%). And that is reflected in their yards per carry, as Gibbs has a 5.72 YPC against zone concept, while Montgomery is at 4.98 YPC. Not to mention, if the running back isn't working, the Lions can rely on Gibbs through the passing game.

Suggested Pick:
Jahmyr Gibbs 100+ Rushing & Receiving Yards (+145)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

This should be an interesting week for the Lions receiving corps, as Jameson Williams was suspended for two weeks. Williams would have been the clear smash spot here, as the Titans run the 10th most man coverage in the league, and he burns man coverage, but now we turn to Amon-Ra. St. Brown is better against zone coverage, catching 29 of his 37 targets for 304 yards compared to four catches on five targets and 32 yards. However, St. Brown lines up in the slot 56.1% of the time, and he gets to line up against Roger McCreary, who lines up in the slot 97% of the time. He has allowed opposing slot receivers a 70.8% catch rate on their targets. With St. Brown demanding a 28.1% target share while missing Williams in this game, matching up against McCreary leads us to our pick.

Suggested Pick:
Amon-Ra St. Brown o6.5 Receptions (+110)

TE Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta has definitely not lived up to his rookie year, where he finished with 889 yards and 10 touchdowns and is now on pace for 634 yards and 2.8 touchdowns; he might be a decent look without Williams. In games without Williams last season, LaPorta averaged 6.8 targets and 54.2 yards per game –– a significant increase from the 37.3 he's averaging this season. The Titans are fairly decent against TEs, averaging 27.2 yards per game, the fifth-fewest in the league, but I think he can overcome that with Williams' absence.

Suggested Pick:
Sam LaPorta 50+ Receiving Yards (+220)

Vegas seems to think this game won't be close at all, as the Lions come in as massive -11.5 favourites. And looking through all this data, it seems like a big number, considering how good this Titans' defence is. However, the Lions should be able to get to Rudolph, as they have the highest pressure rate in the NFL and should force enough turnovers to keep the ball in Goff's hands.

Best Bets: Lions -11.5 (-112)
Lean: Over 44.5 (-110)
Lions 34 Titans 10