Packers vs Jaguars @1:00 EST

QB Jordan Love

Jordan Love has been impressive this season, and now he gets potentially the easiest quarterback matchup this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars allow the second most passing yards against (285.14), the fifth most pass attempts (36), the most passing touchdowns (2.29) and the fifth most rushing yards to QBs (26.86) per game. Jacksonville runs the MOST man coverage across the entire league at 49.8% of their plays. And this isn't something new for Love, considering he's faced the most man coverage in the entire league, facing the coverage on 45.3% of his dropbacks. However, he struggles against the coverage, completing just 53.1% of his passes for 126 yards of his 1,351 passing yards, averaging 3.94 yards per play, which ranks as the lowest in the entire league. This Green Bay Packers offensive line is fairly decent at protecting Love, as he's pressured on 31.4% of his dropbacks, ranking 18th in the NFL. However, Love is very good at avoiding the pressure, as he ranks 28th in percentage of his dropbacks resulting in a sack (11.4%). When Love sees a clean pocket, he's completing 69.4% of his passes with a 12-4 touchdown to interception ratio. What does a clean pocket lead to? Deep balls. And Love ranks third in the league in deep ball completion percentage, completing 15.1% of his passes. Jacksonville ranks middle of the pack in deep ball completion percentage, allowing 10.7% of deep ball completions. Considering the Jaguars having the eighth-lowest percentage pressure rate on QB dropbacks, maybe this is the week Love can dissect a man-coverage-heavy Jaguars scheme with extra time in the pocket and complete some deep balls.

Suggested Pick:
3+ Pass Td's (+155)

RB Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs has been the bell cow for this Packers team this season with the fourth most carriers across the NFL, averaging 17.1 rush attempts per game and 540 rushing yards for 4.5 yards per carry. The Jaguar's run defence is better than their pass defence, averaging just 72.6 rush yards per game on 19.43 attempts per game, allowing the seventh-fewest yards per carry (4.2). Looking into the coverages, Jacobs is great against a zone concept run scheme (5.1 yards per carry, 19th in the NFL) but struggled against a man/gap scheme (3.9 yards per carry, 45th in the NFL.) However, unfortunately for Jacobs, the Jaguars run the fourth fewest percentage of zone concept run scheme at just 38.2%. So where can we attack this Jaguars team with an RB? Through the air. They allow the most receiving yards (57.6) and receptions (6.7) to the position per game. Jacobs has caught 16 of 18 targets out of the backfield this season for 117 receiving yards. While he only just caught his first receiving TD in his career last week, Jacobs ranks 12th in routes run at the position, averaging 6.9 yards per target.

Suggested Pick:
"O" 17.5 receiving yards -120

WR Reed or Doubs?

Jacksonville allows the fourth most receiving yards (177.1) and third most receptions (14.1) to WRs per game this season. As mentioned earlier, the Jaguars run the most man coverage (49.8%). According to PFF, out of their top four WRs, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs separate themselves as the best against man, while Jayden Reed and Doubs crush zone coverage. While it's easy to look at the stats and say that Jayden Reed is the clear WR1 in Green Bay, it's actually closer than it looks. Sure, Reed leads the team in receptions and passing yards, but usage-wise, Doubs has been on the field for one less passing play than Reed. With the usage being a virtual tie, Doubs has the better PFF grade against man coverage (70.7 to Reed's 38.2), more yards vs. man (73 to Reed's eight), and aDoT vs man (13.7 to Reed's 2.0). Jaguars against outside WRs have struggled. Outside CB Tyson Campbell returned last week, only allowing 14 yards. But on the opposite side of him, Ronald Darby has really struggled. He has allowed 29 receptions on 38 targets for 372 yards, for an average of 12.8 yards per reception. While he might not always draw Darby, Doubs should line up against Darby enough to have a good game against this poor Jaguars pass-defense.

Suggested Pick:
"O" 48.5 Receiving Yards

 TE Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft has been a bit of a surprise this season, coming out and emerging as the number one TE over Luke Musgrave. He's been on the field for the most offensive snaps for the Packers and run the most route out of any offensive player. As a TE, he's only been used as a pass blocker on 17 of his 221 snaps, indicating that when he's on the field, he's used as an offensive weapon. Defensively, Jacksonville allows the 11th most receiving yards (53.9) and the 16th most receptions (4.7) per game to TEs. However, Kraft does struggle to produce against man coverage, catching only four of six targets for 37 yards for a 38.7 PFF grade. It might not be the week for Kraft this week.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

QB Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have struggled this season, winning just two of seven games, but both wins have come in the previous three weeks. However, the Jaguars are returning from London, England, without a bye week. Teams usually like the extra week of rest to get acclimated to the time change, so that's another risk Lawrence runs in this matchup. This Packers defence is all around in the middle of the pack against QBs. They allow the 15th most passing yards (225.29), the 12th most pass attempts (32.6), the 11th most passing touchdowns (1.43) and the 22nd most rushing yards (18.6). They pressure at the 17th-highest rate (32%), and Lawrence struggles against pressure, completing just 44.7% of his passes when pressured, ranking 27th in the league. Again, Green Bay sits in the middle in terms of man coverage, running 26.5% man coverage, good for 14th most in the league. Against man coverage, Lawrence struggles averaging 5.96 yards per play. However, against zone coverage – which the Packers run 73.5% of the time – Lawrence averages 8.35 yards per play, ranking in the top 10 among QBs. Like Love, Lawrence also has a great deep ball completion percentage, completing 14.7% of his deep balls, ranking fourth in the league. But the Packers are an even better matchup against the deep ball, allowing an 11.8% completion percentage. This may not be as bad of a matchup as initially thought for Lawrence. He should be able to take advantage of the zone-heavy coverage and deep ball ability.

Suggested Pick:
"O" 32.5 Pass Attempts -120

RB Travis Etienne/Tank Bigsby

Honestly, the only way you can play either of these guys is if Travis Etienne is out. Tank Bigsby has clearly worked his way into a significant role, as he's out-snapped and out-touched Etienne in their latest two games on the field together. And rightfully so, he's got more rushing yards (415 to 230), rushing TDs (4 to 2) and yards per carry (6.2 to 4.1). Green Bay is, again, in the middle of the pack and not your typical RB target. They average 94 rushing yards per game, 20.4 rushing attempts per game and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game. Not good, but not great. Even if Etienne is in for this game, Bigsby has the clear advantage, as he ranks seventh in the league with 6.3 yards per carry against zone concept run scheme, compared to Etienner's 5.44 yards per carry. And against man/gap, Bigsby still has the edge, averaging 4.4 yards per carry to Etienne's 3.9. The Packers run both schemes equally, 42.2% zone and 41.6% man/gap.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

 WR Brian Thomas Jr.
With a slow start out of the gate from Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr. has firmly cemented himself as the number-one receiving option for Lawrence and the Jaguars. He leads the team in targets (45), receptions (30), receiving yards (513), and receiving TDs (4). As mentioned, the Packers run the 14th most man coverage at 26.5% and zone at 73.5%. Thomas Jr. is the highest-grade PFF Jaguars receiver against zone, catching 21 of 29 targets for 391 yards with an average reception of 18.6 yards. Thomas Jr. lines out wide at a 74.8% rate, second highest to only Gabe Davis. He should line up against Jaire Alexander for a lot of this game, minimizing his upside as Alexander is the 20th-highest-graded CB in the league, allowing only 13 receptions on 22 targets this season. The Packers rank 25th in receptions allowed (10.4) and 23rd in receiving yards allowed (130.7) to WRs this season.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

TE Evan Engram

Evan Engram missed a lot of this season, but as soon as he returned, he resumed his role as Lawrence's most targetted weapon, earning a 26.3% and a 28.5% target share in his two games. Over that span, Engram leads the Jaguars in receptions with 15. When Engram is on the field, he's a receiving option. He's ran a route on 66 of 73 passing snaps, only used as a pass blocker on four of those snaps. The Packers allow the eighth most receptions (5.6) and seventh most receiving yards (54.9) per game. Green Bay has allowed starting TEs to go over their reception line in two of their last three games, good for an average of 5.3 per game.

Suggested Pick:
"O" 4.5 Receptions -110

It's a little concerning with how bad this Jaguars defense has been, with them travelling and playing without a bye after two weeks in London. But the spread keeps moving in the Packer's favour; why? Is Vegas trying to tell us something? Ultimately, I think this Packers team offensively will be able to cook the Jaguars' poor pass defense, and Love will bring his team to victory.


Best Bet (Over 49.5 -120)
Lean (Jaguars +4.5 -110)
Packers 30 - Jaguars 27