TNF Vikings vs Rams @8:15 EST

QB Sam Darnold

Darnold has seen much success overall this season, but a lot of his success has been particularly against man coverage. Unfortunately in this matchup, the Rams are in zone at a very high rate at 76.0%. Darnold averages 7.4 yards per attempt against zone in comparison to 10.6 against man coverage, which is the 2nd highest in the NFL. But despite the zone looks, this hasn’t resulted in much success for the Rams defense against the pass. The Rams have allowed 7.9 YPA per pass attempts, which is the 5th most in the NFL. One thing I do find interesting about Darnold is much of his success has come with the Vikings with the lead, as the Vikings game script average is 9.94, which is the highest in the NFL. But despite that, Darnold has aired the ball out with high precision, averaging a 69.2% on deep balls. The Vikings are 3 point road favorites against a bad pass defense. The 3 points implies this game could be much closer than previous games for the Vikings, and I expect Darnold to be in position to pass the entire way, even if he has not been quite as dominant against zone.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 240.5 Pass Yards (-115)

RB Aaron Jones

There is no question about Jones health entering this game, as he is coming off an 116 yard game last week vs the Lions, which is a solid run defense. Now, Jones sees a struggling run defense that is dealing with some injuries in the front 7. Aaron Jones also sees 76.5% of his carries with the QB under center (7th most in NFL), which means that this could be an ideal opportunity for the Vikings line to bludgeon the already weakened Rams defense.  The primary concern here for Jones is simply the workload on a short week for a Thursday night game, but the run game in general sets up well for the Vikings in the game  alongside side the passing game. Because of that I don’t like a play that is volume based, but rather a long rush.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 15.5 Longest Rush (-105)

WR Justin Jefferson

On a larger sample size (not including Kupp who has only played in 2 games), Jefferson leads the NFL in target share at 33.5%. His numbers have not been the best, but that is not because his performance has dipped as it seems more likely this is also because of the lowered pass attempts due to positive game scripts, because at the end of the day Jefferson leads the NFL with 3.22 yards per team pass attempt, showing he has been remarkably efficient. The only real downside here for Jefferson is the zone-heavy approach of the Rams defense (76.0% of snaps in zone), as he has had much more success and targets against man as a WR who primarily lines up on the outside. He has a 35.7% target rate vs man in comparison to just 28.1% vs zone. Jefferson should have a relatively advantageous matchup against Darious Williams in this game, so I do expect them to go to him in the man snaps at a heavy rate. Overall there are some conflicting factors with Jefferson, making his matchup against the Rams a pass for me.

Suggested Pick
Pass

WR Jordan Addison

The Rams are a heavy Cover-3 team, and Darnold as liked to find Addison to Cover-3 on the season, with a target on 22.0% of his routes. With Jefferson’s aDOT down at just 8.3, Addison has been the guy that Darnold has used to stretch the defense the most, with a 10.4 aDOT and 2.28 yards per route run, which is actually the highest on the team. Despite the solid target share against Cover-3, he has not been looked to all that consistently in all downs and situations like Jefferson has, but has racked in some yards when he has been targeted. 20.5 long reception line for a guy with a double digit aDOT and tremendous YAC potential AND an overall decent defensive matchup against the Rams is incredibly low, so I will take his chances at breaking free on a deep ball in this game.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 20.5 Longest Reception (-110)

TE TJ Hockenson

 The Vikings have been easing the TE back into action, nursing an ACL injury. He was held out last week due to the Thursday game this week, but should play tonight. Hockenson is an unknown because of his snap count, but he should have a favorable matchup when on the field as the Rams have really struggled against TEs. When targeted, the Rams have given up over 10.4 yards per target, by far the league high. Because of the injury, I expect most of Hockenson’s snaps to have him involved in the pass game rather than blocking, so he could have some impact even if not at full action yet. Last year, he has the highest target share among all TEs at 24.3%. I think the play on Hockenson here is some type of long shot since the consistency cannot really be relied upon in this specific spot.

Suggested Pick
1st TD Scorer (+1300)
1+ TD (+230)

QB Matthew Stafford

The Vikings pass defense has been poor overall, giving up 237.5 total yards per game, which is 3rd worst in the NFL. However despite the numbers, we also must consider the amount of time played with a significant lead and dominating the game script, which also leads to more passing attempts from the other team. The Vikings have faced an average of 42.3 pass attempts per game, which is the most in the NFL. Their defense lives and dies by being able to generate QB pressures, with the highest blitz rate in the league at 41.1%, and also the second highest pressure rate at 32.6% of the time. This is significant for all QBs but especially Stafford who has uncharacteristically struggled under pressure on the season, with only a 40.0% completion rating against pressure, but with how this zone-heavy defense has been attacked through the air plus a likely negative game script once again for the Rams, I like Stafford to be airing the ball out early and often in this matchup, particularly now with Cooper Kupp back in the fold entirely.

Suggested Pick
‘O’ 33.5 Pass Attempts (-128)

 RB Kyren Williams

 Williams’ backfield touch rate of 82.4% ranks as the highest among NFL RBs. He has been an absolute workhorse for this team, and has his 20 touches in 5 out of 6 games for the Rams. Although the method of attack against the Vikings defense has been the pass, the Vikings defense has been just average against the run, allowing 4.28 YPC to RBs, which ranks 13th in the NFL. The Vikings had all kinds of problem tackling Jahmyr Gibbs last week, and although Williams does not provide the same boost in the passing game as Gibbs, he does run similar to Gibbs in forcing many missed tackles,  with 28 evaded tackles ranking 7th in the NFL. Kyren leads the NFL in Red Zone touches at 36, and despite an overall passing dominant attack being expected tonight, I expect the Rams to look for Williams to finish the critical downs or put the ball in the end zone, as 29.3% of his runs to result in either a first down or a TD.

Suggested Pick
Kyren Williams ATD (-137)
Kyren Williams ‘O’ 1.5 TDs (+280)

WR Cooper Kupp

After not playing last week due to a quick turnaround this week and nursing himself back from injury, Kupp is expected to be a full go here. When Kupp has been on the field, although it has been a small sample size, Stafford has absolutely fed him, with 38.6% target share on routes run, which is the highest of all NFL WRs. His target rate against zone is even higher, which is important because Minnesota is in zone defense at around 74% of snaps, which is the 10th highest mark in the league. Kupp has seen a 42.2 target rate against zone vs 34.8% vs man. He also has a 57% win rate vs zone, which is the 19th highest in the NFL. As mentioned earlier, teams like to attack Minnesota through the air, and with Stafford’s pass attempts line being set at 34.5 (and a number that I expect him to go over as well), that inevitably means Kupp will be seeing his fair share of targets in this one. Similar players who can be lined up both as inside WRs and on the perimeter such as Amon-Ra St Brown and Garrett Wilson have had monster games against the Vikings pass defense. Kupp also should draw a lot of Byron Murphy in this game, who has been a plus matchup for just about anyone who has faced him.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 69.5 Rec Yards (-105)
‘O’ 99.5 Rec Yards (+310)

WR Tutu Atwell

The rest of the Rams receivers come into this game as a question mark due to the anticipated return of Kupp, but if there were one player to keep an eye on it would be Tutu Atwell who has cemented himself as the Rams leading WR without Kupp. Atwell has played 61.8% of his snaps on the outside, but I expect him to get more work at slot in this matchup with Kupp back. Atwell also has some favorable drastic splits in terms of success vs man and success vs zone, with a 69.6% routes won rate against zone in comparison to just 33.3 vs man. It would seem like Atwell will take more of the inside routes while Kupp lines up on the outside to best utilize Atwell. It is hard to say how much Kupp’s return will impact Atwell, making this a pass, but this definitely could be a plus matchup and something to keep an eye.

Suggested Pick
Pass

Expecting a shootout here, as both defenses have struggled and both offenses can do what the opposing defense struggles the most with at a high level. The difference here comes in the fact that Minnesota comes in with more dimensions to their offense, and more depth in the running game. The Rams will have to rely on their passing game heavily, as the Vikings defense is just a little better than the Rams defense in stopping the run. In comparison, the Vikings should be able to attack this Rams defense from a multitude of angles.

Best Bet (Over 46.5 -140)
Lean (Vikings -2.5 -115)
Vikings 34 Rams 27

NFL FREE Same Game Parlay 

(+242) @ FanDuel
Sam Darnold 225+ Pass Yds
Cooper Kupp 60+ Rec Yds
'O' 46.5 Pts 

(+526) @ FanDuel 
Sam Darnold 250+ Pass Yds
Sam Darnold 2+ Pass TD's
Cooper Kupp 70+ Rec Yds
'O' 49.5 Pts 


(+1401) @ FanDuel 
Sam Darnold 250+ Pass Yds
Sam Darnold 3+ Pass TD's
Cooper Kupp 70+ Rec Yds
Cooper Kupp 1+ TD
'O' 49.5 Pts 

(+4919) @ Fanduel
Sam Darnold 275+ Pass Yds
Sam Darnold 3+ Pass TD's
Cooper Kupp 80+  Rec Yds
Cooper Kupp 1+ TD
'O' 59.5 Pts 
Vikings ML