Ravens Team Overview
QB Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson leads the 4-2 Baltimore Ravens into Tampa Bay for a MNF showdown. The Ravens starting QB has thrown for 1529 yards, 10 TD’s and 2 INT through the first 6 games of the season, and he will face a Buccaneers team that runs the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL at 82.4%. The Todd Bowles led defense plays Cover 3 on 42.4% of its opponent’s snaps, and it’s no secret his teams love to blitz. They send extra defenders on 1/3 of opposing QB’s drop backs (4th in NFL). It wouldn’t surprise me to see Bowles dial down the blitz somewhat, considering Jackson is the 8th best passer in the league vs the blitz, completing 68% of his passes. Jackson also has favorable numbers when facing Cover 3, where he’s completed 30 of 43 passes (69.8%) for 468 yards. It should also be made aware that Tampa Bay has allowed the 5th most rushing yards to opposing QB’s. Amongst those players, are Jayden Daniels (88 yds), Bo Nix (47 yds) and Spencer Rattler (27 yds). The strength of this Bucs defense lies in their interior, so linebacker Lavonte David could be a busy man chasing around the Ravens quarterback.
Suggested Pick
"O" 227.5 Passing Yards (-114)
ALT Passing Yards
250+ (+165)
275+ (+320)
"O" 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
RB Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry leads the NFL in carries (119), rushing yards (704) and touchdowns (8), all while averaging 5.9 YPC. Since posting just 46 yards in week 1, he has ran for 84, 151, 199, 92 and 132 yards. So why should you be weary of his rushing total this week? Well, the answer is Vea simple, and no, that wasn’t a typo. The Buccaneers made Vita Vea the highest paid DT in the league this offseason, and his domination as a run stopper has been worth every penny. As I said last week, you can throw out the season rushing averages vs Tampa Bay, because they are heavily skewed without Vea. I forecasted a no-show performance from Alvin Kamara, and he didn’t let me down. Kamara was held to just 12 yards in the first half, and it took garbage time for him to get to his final total of 40. The same also held true for Bijan Robinson (61 yds) and Saquan Barkley (84 yds), who both got the bulk of their production late. The one thing all 3 have in common is each faced a healthy Vita Vea, and to make matters worse, former #1 draft pick Calijah Kancey will return for week 7. What makes this such a good matchup for the Bucs is Henry loves to run between the tackles, and Tampa also has very fast LB’s who can get to the outside edge. Only once has the Raven RB been contained, and it came against Kansas City, whose front 4 mirrors that of Tampa Bay, led by standout DT Chris Jones. Both he and Vita Vea make it extremely difficult to run inside the gaps. Henry is too talented to be shut down completely, but 85.5 yards is a very high number against a fully healthy Bucs D-line.
Suggested Pick
"U" 85.5 Rush Yards (-115)
WR Zay Flowers
If there was any question about who was going to emerge as te #1 receiver in Baltimore, Zay Flowers has put that bed to rest. He leads all Ravens wide outs with a 24.3% target share that has resulted in 33 receptions for 401 yards, TD. He will see Cover 3 for nearly half this game, and that’s a good thing for Flowers who has performed well against this coverage, hauling in 11 of his 15 targets for 164 yards. He’s also excelled in the slot vs this particular scheme, catching 5 of 6 passes for 94 yards. With Zion McCollum performing as one of the best corners in the league, Baltimore will most likely feature Flowers in the slot as much as possible, and he will line up across from Tykee Smith. The Tampa Bay CB has allowed 16 receptions on 23 targets for 209 yardsthis season. With Flowers having a 40% first read share, and being targeted on 35% of his routes against Cover 3, he is a solid yards play for this week, especially with TB having a high blitz rate, which could result in Zay catching a deep ball or two. With Jamel Dean out of the lineup I feel very confident about Flowers here. The Ravens receiver is clearly a focal point of the offense, and put up 111 and 132 yards in his L2 games.
Suggested Pick
"O" 60.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
ALT Receiving Yards
80+ (+175)
90+ (+260)
100+ (+380)
WR Rashod Bateman
Bateman has the toughest matchup among Ravens WR’s this week as he draws Zyon McCollum. Unless Baltimore is forced out of the running game, this is a tough matchup to trust. The Bucs CB has limited opposing wide outs to just a 47.1% reception success rate, yielding only 16 catches on 34 times targeted. Bateman has just an 11.4% target share vs Cover 3, where he has just 3 catches on 4 targets for 50 yards. Playing Bateman just seems too risky, and with the Bucs being susceptible to the occasional long ball, it basically rules out the under for me as well.
Suggested Pick
Pass
TE Isaiah Likely
Mark Andrews has at least shown that he has a heartbeat over the past 2 weeks, and in week 6 he matched Isaiah Likely’s route rate for the first time since week 2. The Bucs allow over 9 YPC to TE’s, but the way Baltimore’s offense is trending makes it impossible to back either. Likely has talent, but he’s simply not getting enough individual snaps to garner the attention we need in order to back him. Since posting 9-111 (TD) in week 1, he has netted just 3,1,2,3,4 targets.
Suggested Pick
Pass
Buccaneers Team Overview
QB Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield’s narrative in Tampa began as a feel good story, turned fairy tale, and now the Buccaneers QB has become the face of the Buccaneers franchise. He’s thrown for 1489 yards and 15 TD’s with 5 INT, and the letters MVP are already prematurely beginning to circulate throughout the NFL. If the Ravens defense operates as they have through its first 6 games, talk surrounding Baker Mayfield is only going to grow. Baltimore has allowed more passing yards (298.1) than any other team in the NFL in ’24. They run zone coverage 69.6% of the time (12th most), and mix in Cover 1 man at a rate of 23.2%. Mayfield has picked opposing zone defenses apart all season long. He has been extremely efficient, completing 88 of 120 passes (73.3%) vs zone, and when facing Cover 1 man, Baker is 35 of 51 (68.6%). Evans and Godwin both have favorable matchup at the corner spots, and Mayfield’s His ability to scramble when necessary has allowed him to keep drives going. With a point total of 48.5 set for this game, we are most likely gearing up for a shootout on Monday night at Raymond James Stadium.
Suggested Pick
"O" 254.5 Passing Yards -115
ALT Passing Yards
275+ (+150)
300+ (+295)
RB Rachaad White/Bucky Irving/Sean Taylor
Prior to last week the Buccaneers were hoping to have Rachaad White back in time for Monday’s game vs Baltimore. That was until Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving combined for a herculean effort in which the RB duo combined for 217 yards on the ground and 80 yards out of the backfield. For now, White is penciled in to start, but Tampa Bay is likely to limit his number of snaps. With regard to Irving and Tucker, both virtually split 60 minutes vs NO, however Bucky (29) out snapped Tucker (12) by a 7:3 ratio for the game. Unfortunately, what we are looking at here is a classic case of the modern day “running back by committee” game. Ultimately, I think Irving will see the most volume, but there’s just too much uncertainty to put any stock in him.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Mike Evans
Mike Evans did not practice on Friday, and he is listed as questionable, but he’s already come out and said his outlook is good to play on Monday night. It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where the Buccaneers WR doesn’t play, but nevertheless you still need to monitor his status throughout the weekend. Evans has 25 receptions for 310 yards after 6 games. While his yards are a bit down, he is still one of the best red zone targets in the NFL as evidenced by his 5 TD’s in ’24. He also draws a much more favorable matchup this week, as compared to Marshon Lattimore last Sunday in New Orleans. Against zone coverage, Evans has a 17.5% target share, catching 13 of the 21 balls thrown his way for 195 yards and 2 scores. His target share soars to 27.5% vs Cover 1, where he has 10 receptions on 14 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. Evans will be lined up opposite CB Brandon Stephens, who has been targeted 37 times already this season. Opposing WR’s have caught 24 of those passes (64.9% success rate) for 319 yards. I think both Evans and Godwin will have solid outings against Baltimore, and Evans at +115 for an Anytime TD is one of the best values on the board. His ALT 2+ TD’s is also worthy of a flier here.
Suggested Pick
"O" 62.5 Yards Receiving -115
"O" 0.5 Anytime TD +115
WR Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin ran through the New Orleans defense like a tornado through a trailer park last Sunday. His career day included 11 rec for 125 yards and 2 TDs. For the season, Godwin has caught 43 balls (1st in NFL), for 511 yards (3rd most) and 5 TD’s (t1st). He has a 27.5% target share coming into week 7, and he has torched zone coverage in ’24. Godwin has caught 26 of 31 passes (83.9%) for 353 yards, and when facing Cover 1 man he has hauled 12 of his 15 targets for 114 yards. He won’t have the luxury of facing Alontae Taylor again, but he is likely to fare well against Marlon Humphrey, who has given up 23 receptions (67.6%) on 34 targets for 216 yards. He is primed for another big game in the slot against a Baltimore defense who is allowing 9.8 receptions/gm to slot receivers, and over the last 2 weeks, the Ravens have allowed 14 receptions out of the slot to both Washington and Cincinnati. With Godwin on the field for 88.7% of Tampa Bay’s snaps in what is expected to be a fast-paced game, his supposed regression may have to wait another week. Godwin will be Baker’s safety blanket once again.
Suggested Pick
"O" 76.5 Receiving Yards -115 |
"O" 6.5 Receptions -110
ALT Receptions
8+ (TBD)
9+ (TBD)
TE Cade Otton
Even in decent matchups, Cade Otton is just not getting many looks. The Tampa Bay tight end has just a 17.5% target share vs zone coverage, and against it dips to 9.8% vs Cover-1 man. His value for a touchdown isn’t there this week either, considering Baltimore has yet to allow a single TD to the TE position. The Ravens have allowed the most receptions to TE’s in ’24, but with the way Mayfield is clicking with Godwin, its put Otton even more in the rearview mirror. He’s be target just 2 and 3 times over the last 2 games.
Suggested Pick
Pass
Game Prediction
This should be the most exciting game of the week, and it very well could come down to whoever has the ball last. I definitely see this game being back and forth and should cruise over this 48.5 number relatively easy. Mayfield is constantly trying to prove his naysayers wrong, but on the other side is a quarterback in Lamar Jackson who has a 22-1 career record vs NFC teams, and he’s 22-7 straight up as a road favorite. This is such a tough game to predict the winner but I'll gladly take the +3.5 poimts with the Bucs. Coinflip game.
Best Bet (Over 48.5 -120)
Lean (Buccaneers +3.5 -112)
Ravens 27 Buccaneers 24