Jets Team Overview
QB Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers received a shot in the arm this week the Jets acquired Davante Adams, his former teammate in Green Bay. This should significantly bolster a Jets passing offense that was averaging 217.2 yards/gm. Now, Rodgers will have the aforementioned Adams along with Garrett Wilson as his 2 primary receivers. He will face a middle of the road Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 13th most passing yards to opposing QB’s this season. They play zone coverage at the 9th highest rate in the NFL (74.4%), and within this they run a cover 3 scheme 47.9% of the time. Against this defense, Rodgers hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been great either, completing 58% (29-50) of his passes for 293 yards. However, you can take these stats with a grain of salt now that he will be operating with multiple receiving weapons. My main concern here is the Jets are coming into Pittsburgh off a short week, and historically, this has not yielded good results for road teams
Suggested Pick
Pass
RB Breece Hall
The Jets RB is coming off his best game of the year, where he amassed 169 all-purpose yards against Buffalo on MNF. It most likely will not be a repeat performance, considering the Steelers have allowed the 7th fewest rushing yards to opposing RB’s so far this year. Furthermore, Hall averages 1.5 yards less per carry against zone coverage (3.2 YPC) than he does vs man (4.7 YPC), and the NY rusher will see a heavy dose of zone defense on Sunday. The biggest question mark here is how much will the arrival of Davante Adams cut into Hall’s workload. You would be wise to lay low on Hall for this week, and reassess after Sunday night.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Garrett Wilson
Before everybody goes falling in love with Davante Adams, I think it’s important to remind people that Garrett Wilson is still the WR1 (29.3% target share) on this team. I definitely don’t see that changing any this week, especially with him having a very favorable matchup against Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr, who has surrendered 169 yards to opposing receivers over the L3 games, while giving up plays of 30 and 32 yards along the way. Still, the short week and figuring out this new dynamic leaves me a little unsure, but Wilson has hauled in receptions of 24, 23 and 24 yards this season, and I think he will be able to stretch the field at least once on Sunday.
Suggested Pick
"O" 19.5 Yards Longest Reception -114
WR Davante Adams
Davante Adams has to be glad to get out of that disaster that was the Las Vegas Raiders. He now reunites with Aaron Rodgers to try and lift the Jets above mediocrity. He will line up across from Donte Jackson, who ranks 72nd among starting CB’s in ’24. But coverage grades can sometimes be misleading, as Jackson has given up 15 catches on 27 targets to opposing WR’s for 154 yards. It’s also up in the air what kind of target share we’re going to see Adams get on Sunday. With regard to how Adams has performed against Cover 3, he has 11 receptions on 15
targets for 123 yards. I would be careful about going all in on Adams until you see how this week goes in Pittsburgh.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Allen Lazard
Lazard is quietly leading the NFL with 5 receiving touchdowns, and he’s been Aaron Rodgers go to guy in the red zone. He lines up in the slot 48.8% of the time, and he’s caught 13 of 22 passes for 210 yards and 3 TD’s. On Sunday, though with the addition of Adams I doubt he will be lined up in the slot as much as he has. this is definitely a boom or bust. Sprinkle on a TD.
Suggested Pick
0.5 Anytime TD +310
Steelers Team Overview
QB Russell Wilson
Mike Tomlin’s benching of Justin Fields (10 TD, 2 INT) has become the biggest story of the week in the NFL, but despite the Steelers 4-2 record behind Fields it should also be noted that he has thrown for only 1106 yards, and even with his legs Pittsburgh still ranks just 26th in total yards and 20th in scoring (20.7 PPG) this season. There is a reason Tomlin has never had a losing season, and his reason here is a calculated one. The Steelers wins have come against 36-year old Kirk Cousins (post-Achilles surgery), rookie Bo Nix (2nd career start), Justin Herbert (post plantar fascia injury) and Aidan O’Connell, while their losses have been to Joe Flacco and Dak Prescott, both proficient passers. In order to keep up with the pace of Aaron Rodgers, Tomlin will need Wilson’s strong arm to air the ball out when needed. The Jets run zone coverage at a 59.2% rate, but 34.7% of the time they play Cover 1. Last year, Wilson played in a new offense with Sean Payton and in what was considered a down year, he still threw for 26 TD to 8 INT. Against zone coverage in ’23, Wilson completed 224-320 (70.7%) passes for 2286 yards, averaging 7.1 YPA, and when pressured he was 48 of 92 (52.2%) for 680 yards (7.4 YPA). Against Cover 1 he was 45 of 73 (62.5%) for 552 yards (7.7 YPA) with 5 TD and 0 INT. Wilson complete 52.2% of his passes under pressure last year, but most impressive he threw 13 TD and only 1 INT. Were it not for Wilson making his first start in 10 months I would like backing him for under 0.5 INT’s, but he should be avoided altogether as he’s going up against a Jets defense that has allowed the 3rd fewest pass yards to opposing QB’s this season.
Suggested Pick
Pass
RB Najee Harris
Najee Harris had his best game of the year last week in Las Vegas, as the Pittsburgh RB rushed for 106 yards and a TD on only 14 carries. The Jets defense ranks in the middle of the pack in rush yards allowed (124.2/gm), but there is reason for concern with his production in week 7. For starters, the arm of Aaron Rodgers can a put a team on their heels early, and it’s hard to imagine New York not showcasing the arrival of Davante Adams in this game. Most concerning is the Jets give up the 9th fewest YPC at 4.3, and this doesn’t bode well for a RB like Harris who is getting just 3.9 YPC behind an offensive line that is currently in shambles. And let’s not forget backup RB Jaylen Warren, who significantly cut into Harris’ workload last week. Najee handled just under 55% of the backfield touches in week 6, his lowest output of the season. He’ll also be going up a Jets defense that runs man coverage at a 37.8% rate, 6th highest in the league. This is bad news for Harris, who is averaging a miniscule 2.1 YPC vs man so far in ’24.
Suggested Picks
"U" 54.5 Rush Yards -110
WR George Pickens
The good news last week for George Pickens is that he was on the field for over 80% of the Steelers drop backs. The bad news is he had another substandard day, posting 3 catches for 58 yards on 8 targets. The Pittsburgh #1 wide receiver is still without a single touchdown this season, but he’s hoping with Russell Wilson taking over the reins behind center will increase his rate of production. Unfortunately, week 7 is very bad timing for Pickens who is going to be lined up across from D.J. Reed, who has the 3rd best coverage grade vs WR’s this season. The Jets CB has been targeted 24 times through 6 games, where he’s allowed just 11 receptions for 112 yards (10.2 YPC) and 0 TD. In 5 games played, Reed has allowed 29, 1, -4, 16 and 70 yards to opposing WR, but the 70 yards came in London and the bulk of that was on a broken up fluke catch by Ray Davis for 42 yards. Outside of that, he hasn’t allowed a reception for more than 15 yards this year. It also won’t help that Pickens numbers against Cover 1 have been nearly nonexistent in ’24. He’s caught only 6 of his 13 total targets for a mere 57 yards. He’s much better against zone coverage, but only 7 teams run less zone than PIT.
Suggested Pick
"U" 51.5 Receiving Yards -110
WR Van Jefferson
I’m taking a clear pass on Van Jefferson today, who will be going up against Sauce Gardner. The Jets corner has allowed 10 catches on 15 targets for 136 yards to opposing WR’s, but over the L3 weeks he’s surrendered a total of just 3-30 yards. Van Jefferson has been targeted only 13 times in ’24, where he’s hauled in 8 receptions for 62 yards, but he’s has caught only 1 ball for 8 yards vs Cover 1. With Russell Wilson making his first career start with the Steelers, there’s just too much uncertainty in backing or fading Jefferson’s lines with any confidence.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Pat Freiermuth
The 25-year old TE has been targeted 26 times in the first 6 weeks of the season, where he has logged 22 receptions for 194 yards (9th in NFL) and 2 TD’s. The Jets have allowed 191 yards (31.8/gm) this season to opposing tight ends. The Jets run a single high safety over the middle of the field at a 58.2 % rate, and Freiermuth has caught 14 of his 16 targets out of this formation, so there is some real value on his receptions here.
Suggested Pick
Over 2.5 Receptions -140
Game Prediction
This will be the first game between these two teams since 2022, when the Jets won 24-20. Normally, I would fade the road team coming off a short week, but this game has the beginning of a big controversy at who is going to play QB for Pittstburgh written all over it. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields play two totally different styles, and this could cause trouble for the Steelers, especially against this Jets defense and the new addition in Davante Adames on the offensive side. The NFL wants to the Jets to win as it will creats some buzz for the team down in New York!
Best Bet (Jets ML -135)
Lean (Under 41.5 -140
Jets 21-14 (-130)