Chargers Team Overview
QB Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert has thrown for 815 yards, 6 TD and 1 INT through 5 weeks this season. Much to the chagrin of Chargers fans, they are just not putting him in a position to have much success in the passing game. If there is ever a game where Herbert can put up big numbers it’s this week against Arizona. The Cardinals defense is 31st in completion rate (72.0%), 31st in YPA (8.0%) and 27th Passing TD rate (6.0%). They run zone coverage on 68% of its opponent’s snaps, and they play Cover 3 at a 37.5% rate. Herbert has found success against this scheme, completing 32 of 48 passes (66.7%) for 314 yards and 2 TD. The issue for Herbert in this game will be the health of wide receivers Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnson. They are each listed as questionable for this game, but it is likely that both will play. This will continue to make the Chargers a run first team. Arizona is terrible in terms of their defensive efficiency, but they rank 22nd in yards allowed to QB’s, which is not as bad as what you would expect given aforementioned numbers. There are some nice receiver props available for this Chargers game, but given their passin trends, I just can’t put any faith in L.A. allowing Herbert to open up this offense on Monday.
Suggested Pick
Pass
RB J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins has been a bright spot amongst a rather stale offense in Los Angeles. He ranks 6th among RB’s in rushing yards (438) this season, and will face a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th in rush yards allowed (124.8) to RB’s. With Gus Edwards still sidelined, Dobbins has become the true workhorse for this offense, handling over 75% of the backfield touches for L.A. I’m not letting Josh Jacobs atrocious performance scare me off here. Arizona allows the 4th most touches to RB’s in the NFL (31.2/gm), while giving up 155 yards/gm from scrimmage (3rd most in NFL), and most importantly they struggle equally in both man/gap and zone concepts this year, which Dobbins will see an equal amount of. Dobbins is averaging 5.7 YPC this season, including 5.5 YPC (vs zone) and 5.4 YPC (man/gap). He’s also getting an absurd 3.2 yard strictly before contact as the Chargers O-line has dominated its opponents, and opened holes up for J.K. to utilize his elite vision. He should dominate this Arizona defense that allows 4.7 YPC. I also like Dobbins to find the end zone this week as ARI has surrendered 8 TD’s to opposing RB’s, and he will be getting all of the Chargers goal line carries. Look for Dobbins to shine on Monday night.
Suggested Pick
Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
ALT Rushing Yards
90+ (+125)
100+ (+195)
110+ (+290)
Anytime TD -125
WR Ladd McConkey
McConkey found himself on and off the field last week, but still led the Chargers in targets with 8. He is listed as questionable, but as of the now the assumption is that he will suit up for MNF. Overall, McConkey leads L.A. in target rate with a 24.4% share, and that’s not going to change. His track record has not been great this season against zone coverage, in particular Cover 3, where he’s caught 4 balls on 9 targets for 41 yards. He will be lined up against Garrett Williams, who has been targeted 18 times, and he’s allowed just 11 receptions (61.1) for 91 yards. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 receptions in any game this season, and has given up 7, 10, 29, 20, 25 yards in 5 games. That’s said, Williams will not be covering McConkey on every snap, and with him registering 15 targets over the L2 weeks there is certainly value in his receptions, but even against this Cardinals defense, I would stay away from his total yards, as Ladd is not a downfield receiver. In fact, 70% of his targets have been 10 yards or less, averaging just 4.1 YPC.
Suggested Pick
Over Receptions (-TBD)
WR Quentin Johnson
Quentin Johnson is questionable coming into Monday night’s game, as he’s nursing an ankle injury. Like McConkey, I think he will ultimately play, but when combining this ailment with his recent trends it’s hard to know what we can expect from him. And it’s a shame too, because while he has just a 15.7% target share against zone coverage this season, it climbs to 18% against Cover 3, where he’s caught of 8 of 9 balls thrown his way for 99 yards (12.4 YPR). He will go up against 2nd year corner Starling Thomas, who has been targeted 19 times in ’24, allowing 10 receptions for 149 yards, and he’s given up longs of 28 and 53. The problem is it’s hard to trust a player that’s getting just 4.4 targets/gm. There’s just no margin for error there.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Josh Palmer
Josh Palmer is a player to keep an eye on leading up to MNF, and that’s regardless of whether or not McConkey or Johnson are in the lineup. While his production and target share (10.3%) have not been there, I think he has some value here. He has 5 rec for 70 yards (14.0 YPC) on 7 targets vs zone coverage, and against Cover 3 specifically, he’s caught all 3 ball that went his way for 33 yards (11.0 YPC). On Monday night, he will line up across Sean Murphy-Bunting, who in 19x targeted has allowed 15 receptions (78.9%) for 182 yards (12.1 YPC). And, he’s also allowed longs of 20, 20, 14, 17, 16 yards in each of the L5 weeks. In the meantime, Palmer had longs of just 11, 11 in his first 2 games played, but in his L2 he’s recorded long catches of 26 and 24 yards. The line for Palmer’s longest reception is not out, but grab it once it comes available.
Suggested Pick
Over Longest Reception (-TBD)
Cardinals Team Overview
QB Kyler Murray
It’s been a pretty subpar season for what Arizona envisioned Kyler Murray being this season, and Monday night’s game vs the Chargers could not have come at a worse time. The last thing Murray wants is for his poor play to be magnified on MNF, but that’s what is going to happen. The silver lining her for Murray is that 90% of the Monday night audience will be watching the Ravens/Bucs game. Murray will be facing an phenomenally underrated L.A. defense that has allows just 13.2 PPG, while giving up just 5 passing TD’s in ’24. Only Tampa Bay (82.4%) plays more zone coverage than the Chargers (82.1%), but it’s by a razor thin margin. L.A. makes it difficult on their opponents because they are so good on multiple zone schemes, and mix a combination of Cover 3 (29.1%), Cover 2 (19.6%) and Cover 4 (19.6%). What’s most impressive is the Chargers do this with the 6th lowest pressure rate in the league, and that’s what allows Murray to get out and scramble, something he’s going to have trouble doing as L.A. allows just 18.0 yards/gm rushing to opposing QB’s. He’s averaging 147.3 yards/gm against zone coverage, and has completed 72.4% of his passes, but there’s concern with how Marvin Harrison has performed against the 3 primary zone coverages the Chargers run. Murray will most likely rely more heavily on his tight end in this game.
Suggested Pick
Pass
RB James Connor
This is going to be a running them with most of this Arizona offense, but James Connor will have a rough go of it on Monday night when he faces an L.A. defense that is allowing only 77.6 YPG rushing to opposing RB’s. On top of that, Connor injured his ankle in the first half last Sunday. He later returned, before fumbling and didn’t see the field the rest of the game. That said, he was able to practice in full this week, and he’s not listed on the ARI injury report for Monday. Los Angeles has defended well against the run all season, allowing the 7th fewest YPC to running backs at 4.2. Connor hasn’t been particularly utilized in the passing game either, and I need to see more than one week’s worth of production in that area to trust him.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison left last week’s game with a concussion, but he cleared protocol this week and will suit up for MNF. After his game against Los Angeles, he may wish he sat out, as this matchup doesn’t looking for the rookie on the outset. When facing Cover 2,3,4 schemes, Harrison has just a 19% target share, and he’s caught only 9 of 20 passes (45% CR) for 187 yards and 2 TD. He will line up across from rookie CB Cam Hart out of Notre Dame, who will be making his first NFL start on Monday. If there is a knock on this Chargers defense it’s they’ve given up more than a few long ball this season, but it’s hard to trust Harrison, who with the exception of his 60 yard TD vs Rams in week 2, hasn’t caught another pass for more than 22 yards in ’24.
Suggested Pick
Pass
WR Michael Wilson
There are no lines out for Michael Wilson as of yet, but you will want to keep a close eye for when they come out. Against zone coverage, Wilson has an 18.1% target share, and he’s hauled in 14 of his 19 total targets for 184 yard, but 45 of these have come after the catch, and he is going up against one of the best performing corners in Kristian Fulton. He has been targeted just 15 times in ’24, where he’s allowed only 7 receptions for 75 yards. Outside of one catch for 54 yards vs Kansas City in week 4, Fulton has allowed 1 for 3 yds (WK 1), 1 for -2 yds (WK 2), 4 for 12 yards (WK 3) and 1 for 8 yds (WK 6). He simply does not allow YAC to the WR he is defending. Wilson’ receiving yards under is a must play on Monday night.
Suggested Pick
Under Receiving Yards (-TBD)
TE Trey McBride
McBride has been the safety blanket for Kyler Murray this season, and he has a great matchup to take advantage of Monday night. The Arizona TE will face a Chargers defense that plays zone coverage on 82.1% of its snaps (2nd most in NFL). McBride has a 16.1% target share against man coverage, but his target rate skyrockets to 28.6% vs zone, and he’s going to see this on nearly every down against Los Angeles. McBride has been targeted 32 times vs zone, where he has 25 receptions (78.1% CR) for 245 yards. Opponents of the Chargers have targeted the TE position at a 27.8% in ’24, the second-highest of any team in the NFL. His line is set at just 51.5 yards for Monday night, and he has exceeded this total in 3 of his L4 games. McBride had 6 for 67 vs LAR (WK 2), 9 for 53 @ SF (WK 5) and 8 for 96 @ GB (WK 6). He’s in for a big game on Monday night.
Suggested Pick
Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
ALT Receiving Yards
60+ (+130)
70+ (+205)
80+ (+310)
Game Prediction
I’ve seen enough of this Arizona team to know I have absolutely zero trust in them to win this game. The Chargers seem hesitant to open up the offense, which is more of an indictment on Justin Herbert than anything else. Rather, L.A. will will have a grind-it-out approach featuring J.K. Dobbins, keeping this a close, low-scoring game. I just have no faith in Kyler Murray to win.
Best Bet (Chargers -2.5 -110)
Lean (Under 44.5 -116)
Chargers 23 Cardinals 20