Chiefs vs 49ers @4:25 EST

QB Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes faces the 49ers, who allow the 17thhighest yards per attempt to opposing QBs (7.01). The 49ers have allowed a -3.1% pass rate over expected (5th lowest in the league). San Fran is around the league average in terms of zone coverage rate, at 67.7%. Their 3 top coverages are Cover 3 (28.1%), Cover 1 (23%) and Cover 4 (21.2%). Mahomes averages 8.05 YPA and has an 88.2 QB rating vs these 3 coverages. This compares to 7.12 YPA and a 90.2 QB rating vs all other coverages. San Fran ranks 8th in pressure rate over expected. Mahomes has struggled this season against pressure, averaging 5.77 YPA and a 61 QB rating. His YPA ranks 16th amongst qualifiers. The 49ers pressure the QB a ton and I expect Mahomes to use his feet more often than normal like he has the L2 weeks without Pacheco and Rice having 5,6 carries for 12 & 22 yards. Last year against the 49ers in the Playoff he went for 9 carries having 66 rushing yards

Suggested Pick
20+ Rush Yds (-105)
25+ Rush Yds (+144)
40+ Rush Yds (+430)
50+ Rush Yds (+830)

RB Kareem Hunt

San Francisco allows 4.36 YPC, 12th lowest in the league. They also allow 1.87 adjusted yards before carry per attempt, around the league average. In 2 games since signing with the Chiefs, Kareem has ran for 69 and 102 rushing yards on 14 and 27 attempts respectively. He had 102 yards last week against the Saints and yes this is a much more difficult matchup. Hunt should continue to get the volume, as he saw 82.4% of the backfield touches last week, but should be much less efficient against the 49ers. With that being said his usage can not go unnoticed! He had 27 carries last game and yes the Chiefs are +2.5 point underdogs But Mahomes always keeps games competitive which will help this. Andy Reid always has some tricks up his sleeve and could see Hunt doing better than expected

Suggested Pick
50+ Rush Yds -130
70+ Rush Yds +200

WR Xavier Worthy

Against the 49ers 3 top coverage schemes, Xavier Worthy averages 1.47 YPRR and has seen a target on 18% of his routes. However, his air yard share leads the Chiefs (30.4%), as he continues to be used as the deep ball threat with his speed. The 49ers are allowing the most YPRR to the slot (2.44), but the lowest YPRR to the outside (1.23). Over the course of the season, Worthy has played 64.3% of his routes from the outside. However, in Week 5, the first full game without Rashee Rice, Worthy played a career high 41.9% snaps from the slot, so they started moving him around. Post-bye, I could see Worthy catching a deep ball here which gives up some huge upside. They have used Worth is the short game as well as 7/12 reception have been caught for an average depth of target of -4/3 yards. The 49ers have gave up 36 receptions on those types of passes which is the 9th FEWEST but they allow the 6th HIGHEST yard per reception with (7.50). Worthy could have any day.

Suggested Picks
50+ Rec Yds +142
60+ Rec Yds +220

WR Juju Smith-Schuster

Against the 49ers top 3 coverage schemes, JuJu averages 2.18 YPRR and has seen a target on 18% of his targets. However, looking at the last week they played without Rashee, he saw a target on 27% of his routes and averaged an insane 6.36 YPRR. He ran outside 63.6% of the time in week 5 and 33.3% in the slot. Doubtful that JuJu can duplicate his 130 receiving yard game from week 5, but he does seem like a guy Mahomes can trust with all the injuries. JuJu was added to the injury report late in the week due to a hamstring injury which is something to pay attention to but he should be good to go. Mahomes will continue to look his way and I’m not going to hop off the Juju train until he fails us.

Suggested Pick
ALT Receptions
4+ -154
5+ +134
6+ +235
ALT Receiving Yards
50+ Yards +132
70+ Yards +300
100+ Yards +950

TE Travis Kelce

Against the 49ers top 3 coverage schemes, Kelce averages 2.16 YPRR and has been targeted on 23% of his routes. In the past 2 games, where Rashee has only run 3 routes before getting injured, Kelce has seen an elite 31% targets per route run and a 37.3% air yard share. If there is anybody I trust it’s Travis Kelce with Mahomes throwing him the rock! In an interview before the Saints game a reporter asked Patrick Mahomes how they are going to get Travis Kelce more involved and he stated “Kelce knows when he needs to step up”. In that game we went on to have 9 reception for 70 receiving yards and I fully expect him to build off of that momentum and have yet another great game against the 49ers that they know quite well.

Suggested Pick
“O” 5.5 Receptions -150
“O” 60.5 Rec Yds -115
Anytime TD +155

QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy and the 49ers face the Chiefs, who are 20th in passing yards allowed per game (217 YPG). The Chiefs play the 2nd highest frequency of 2-high safeties in the league (67%). Against 2-high looks, Purdy is averaging 8.92 Yards per attempt, 3rd best. The Chiefs also have the 8th highest pressure rate over expected. When pressured, Purdy averages 7.02 YPA, holds a 101 passer rating and has thrown for 5 TDs. Considering the Chiefs are allowing the 4th lowest yards per carry (3.75), I like the 49ers to attack through the air. He has surpassed 250 passing yards in 4 of L5 games.

Suggested Pick
250+ Passing Yds -115
275+ Passing Yds +175

RB Jordan Mason

Mason suffered a shoulder injury last week and was held out for part of the game. Shanahan said he thinks he’ll be good to go Sunday, but his ability to endure pain on that shoulder will be something to watch. The Chiefs allow the 4th lowest yards per carry (3.75), and the 3rd lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.26). The 49ers have been able to run against just about everybody, but this will be their toughest challenge yet as the Chiefs have yet to allow an RB to gain 50+ rush yards this season.

Suggested Pick
“U” 56.5 Rush Yds -120

WR Brandon Aiyuk

Against 2-high safeties, Aiyuk only averages 1.19 YPRR (5th on SF), and holds a 15.8% target share (4th on SF). The Chiefs also allow the 2nd lowest YPRR to outside WRs, where Aiyuk has lined up 81.3% of the time. Aiyuk has only had 1 spike week this season, the rest he has been held under 50 yards receiving. This is a matchup I’m inclined to fade Aiyuk. He will be lined up against Trent McFuffie and he has been very good this year covering 201 coverages allowing just 21 targets and 14 receptions. (10.44% Target Rate). The only issue is that with the absence of Jennings I could see Aiyuk lining up in the slot more. I lean on his unders but Jennings being out is a concern 

Suggested Pick
“U” 62.5 Rec Yds -110
“U” 55.5 Rec Yds +130
“U” 45.5 Rec Yds +220

WR Deebo Samuel

Against 2-high safeties, Deebo averages 2.37 YPRR (2nd on SF), and holds a 23.1% 1st read rate (2nd on SF). While the Chiefs do allow the 2nd lowest YPRR to outside WRs, they are not as strong against the slot. They are allowing the 14th most YPRR to that alignment. Deebo lines up all over, with a 37.6% slot rate. Relatively speaking, this is a better scheme for Deebo to do damage against than Aiyuk. Samuel has a much better matchup when in the wideout as well facing Jaylen Watson who is coming off a game where he allowed 7 targets with 4 receptions and 45 yds. With Jennings out I expect Samuel to get more Slot opportunities because that is where Jennings ran out of 56.8% of the time.

Suggested Pick
50+ Rec Yds -138
70+ Rec Yds +176
100+ Rec Yds +460

TE George Kittle

The Chiefs allow the most receiving yards to TE and the 6th highest YPRR to inline alignment. Kittle runs 55% of his routes from inline. Against 2-high safety looks, Kittle leads the 49ers with a 22.1% target share and a 28.8% 1st read rate. Kittle has looked great this season, averaging 5.6 receptions and 56.6 receiving yards per game. Smash matchup for Kittle to continue his success. Jennings is out and it will boost a player like Kittle drastically

Suggested Pick
50+ Rec Yds -128
60+ Rec Yds +128
70+ Rec Yds +195

The Chiefs are down a ton of their playmakers, with Pacheco on IR and Rashee Rice out for the season but that has not stopped them! They are 5-0 and will continue to shock the world! They are operating with a rookie WR, Travis Kelce, and veteran JuJu Smith Schuster had to operate as their top WR last week. The 49ers have not been good this seaosn at all having a 3-3 record losing to the Vikings,Rams,Cardinals. I get it scoring wise, the Chiefs really haven't been as dominant as of late but that defense is unbelevable. The margin for error against this Chiefs i sslim and the 49ers have had a ton of errors. 

Best Bet (Chiefs +3.5 -165)
Lean (Under 47.5 -110)
49ers 21 Chiefs 24