Raiders vs Rams @4:05 EST

QB Aidan O’Connell

The Rams allow the most passing yards per attempt (9.9) this season. They play the 6^thhighest rate of single-high safety (59.3%) and allow the most fantasy points per drop back in this look. On the season, O’Connell averages 5.6 yards per attempt and a 76.3 QB rating. Against single-high, those numbers decrease to 4.69 YPA and a 57.3 QB rating. The Rams hold a 3.69% pressure rate over expected, which is around league average. No split to target here (pressure vs no pressure). O’Connell has only started 1 game so far this season, passing for 227 yards against Pittsburgh. With this being a smash matchup, I’m inclined to target his passing yards with such a low line, despite his small sample size.

Suggested Pick
“O” 209.5 Passing Yds -115

RB Alexander Mattison

With Zamir White sidelined the past 2 weeks, Mattison has been the main RB, but has not been very efficient, averaging 2.53 and 2.36 YPC respectively. This week, he faces a LAR defense that allows the 7^th most YPC (4.83). Their defense has been equally bad vs zone and man run concepts. Despite this, being 7-point underdogs and Zamir White practicing on a limited basis this week, there is too much uncertainty to play this backfield.

Suggested Pick
Pass

WR Jakobi Meyers

Jakobi did not practice Thursday with an ankle injury, but if he plays, he will step in as the WR1 with Davante shipped out of town. With Davante off the field, Jakobi Meyers has been targeted on 27.5% of his routes. That would be good for 16^th in the NFL amongst qualifying WRs. Jakobi averages 1.66 YPRR against single-high (the formation to target vs LAR), has a 29.3% target rate and an elite 1^st read rate of 34.3%. The Rams also allow the 2^nd most YPRR to outside aligned WRs. In the last 2 weeks without Davante Adams, he aligned outside 72.4% and 84.4% respectively. Be cautious of his injury outlook, but if he is good to go with no restrictions, I will be hammering.

Suggested Pick (IF HEALTHY)
“O” 47.5 Rec Yds -115
60+ Rec Yds +145
70+ Rec Yds +225

WR Tre Tucker

Against single-high safety looks, Tucker only averages 0.68 YPRR and has been targeted on 12% of his routes. This is down from 1.03 YPRR and 15% target rate against all coverages. If Jakobi Meyers is out, I’d be more inclined to play Tucker at a short line, but he doesn’t command enough volume to warrant a bet. He has big play ability, so I wouldn’t target his under either.

Suggested Pick
Pass

TE Brock Bowers

In the 3 weeks without Davante Adams, Bowers leads the Raiders in YPRR (2.28) and has been targeted on 32% of his routes. He has also commanded a 29% 1^st read rate. However, against single-high, he does have a negative split as he only averages 1.16 YPRR and targets on 29% of his routes. Looking in general, the Rams have allowed the 6^th most receiving yards to opposing TEs. With his massive volume and the possibility of Jakobi Meyers sitting, I would target his receiving yards and a possible TD.

Suggested Pick
“O” 61.5 Rec Yds -120
Anytime TD +215

QB Matthew Stafford

The Raiders are allowing the 7^th fewest passing yards per game. They have a pressure rate over expected right around league average. The Raiders don’t have any defensive coverage schemes that stand out, but their favorite coverage scheme is Cover 3 (31.3%). They also run man at the 10^th highest rate (31.3%). Stafford is 20^th in YPA vs this coverage (7.07). Stafford has hit his 231.5 Pass Yard line in 2 of 5 games. In an average matchup coming out of the bye, I’m not compelled to play either side.

Suggested Pick
Pass  

RB Kyren Williams

Vegas is allowing the 6^th highest yards per carry (4.95) and the 7^th highest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Kyren is averaging just 3.79 yards per carry, but he is seeing a massive amount of touches. He is 2^nd among RBs with 81.3% of backfield touch share.  Vegas also allows the 5^th most receptions per game to RBs (6.2).

Suggested Pick
100+ Rush + Rec Yds (would play up to 103.5; line not up yet)

WR Cooper Kupp

Kupp is expected to return after missing the previous 3 games. In his only healthy game, Kupp caught 14 passes on 21 targets for 110 receiving yards. He has had an insane 52.1% 1^stread rate in his limited action this year. Kupp has lined up from the slot 69.4% of the time this season and the Raiders allow the 7^th most YPRR to slot aligned WRs. I am not sure where this line will open and there’s a lot of question marks about how much of a workload he will have in his first game back. If it looks like he’s close to a full go, this matchup is good enough to target his overs.

Suggested Pick
60+ Rec Yds -105

WR Jordan Whittington

The rookie WR has stepped in nicely while Kupp and Puka have been out with injuries. In his last game prior to the bye, he was targeted on 24% of his routes and averaged 2.17 YPRR, leading the Rams. He has lined up a little bit all over the place, 36.2% in the slot and 60% out wide. The expected return of Kupp complicates this, but would expect him to work more outside. If Kupp is ruled out, I’d play him in a plus matchup. If not, I’d stay away.

Suggested Pick
Pass

TE Colby Parkinson

Vegas has been middle of the pack against opposing TEs, allowing 42.2 receiving yards per game. He has been targeted 20 times in the past 2 games but has only 85 yards combined to show for it. He has consistently been targeted underneath with a very low 6.9 aDOT. Again, Kupp likely takes volume from everyone in the passing game if he returns. If Kupp is out, I’d target his receptions.

Suggested Pick
Pass (Kupp seems to be playing)

I trust Sean McVay to have an excellent game plan following an extra week of practice. The Rams and Matthew Stafford likely get reinforcement back, as Kupp is set to return. The Rams are the biggest rush funnel in the league, and the Raiders just haven’t been able to execute in their run game. The Rams should be able to dominate time of possession running the football against a Vegas team that has allowed the 6^th most yards per carry. I just don’t trust Aidan O’Connell to be able to keep this game close.

Best Bet (Rams -6.5)
Lean (Under 43.5)
Rams 27 Raiders 14