Panthers vs Commanders @4:05 EST

QB Andy Dalton

Dalton will make his 5^th start of the season against Washington. They allow 214 passing yards per game, which is around the league average. Washington plays man coverage 35.8% of the time, 6^th highest rate in the NFL. They play 2-high at a 53.7% rate, 6^th highest. Their 2 main coverage formations are Cover 1 and Cover 2, at a 28.9% and 21.4% rate respectively. Against 2-high, Dalton averages 5.56 yards per attempt and a 64.7% completion percentage. This compares to 6.82 yards per attempt and a 67.1% completion rate against 1-high, so a negative matchup in terms of scheme. Washington’s middle of the pack in terms of pressuring the QB at a 32.6% rate. When pressured, Dalton averages 4.5 YPA and a 50% completion percentage.

Suggested Picks
Pass

RB Chuba Hubbard

The Commanders allow 5.04 Yards Per Carry, 5^th most in the NFL. Looking at adjusted yards before contact per attempt, which strips out QB runs and trick plays, Washington is 3^rd worst in the NFL at 2.78. They specifically struggle against man/gap concepts, allowing the most yards per carry (6.06), compared to 3.70 YPC against zone concepts, which ranks top 10. The run scheme weakness of the Commanders does not matchup with Panthers and Chuba’s preferred run concept. 68.6% of his runs are in a zone concept, averaging 5.68 YPC, compared to 5.36 YPC in a man/gap concept (tendency: 29.1%). When Dalton is lined up in shotgun, Chuba averages 4.2 YPC, compared to 6.51 when he is under center. This is a bullish split for Chuba, as Washington allows the most YPC when the QB is under center.

Suggested Picks
“O” 69.5 Rush Yds -110

WR Diontae Johnson

As mentioned above, Washington plays the 6^th highest rate of man coverage (35.8%) and the 6^th highest rate of 2-high safeties (53.7%). With Andy Dalton, Diontae averages 1.58 YPRR and holds a 23.9% target share against this coverage. This is in strong contrast to his 2.71 YPRR and 30% target share vs single high. Looking at Diontae’s pre-snap positioning, he primarily starts out wide, at a 78.5% rate on passing snaps. Washington is middle of the pack against outside WRs, allowing 2.1 YPRR and a 25% target rate. He’ll likely be guarded by some combination of St-Juste and Sainristil, which is bullish personnel wise as they rank as the 80^th and 67^th out of 100 best CBs respectively according to PFF.

Suggested Picks
Play ALT's when Line comes out. 
60+ +200 and above and ladder it up to 90+

WR Xavier Legette

The Panthers rookie WR has seen his snap and route share increase as of late, to 87% and 81.4% respectively week 4 and 77% and 80% respectively week 6, we can throw out the 37% and 26.8% rate week 5 as he left the game due to injury. Against two-high with Andy Dalton, Legette has been targeted on 19% of his routes and averages 0.98 YPRR. This compares to an 18% TPRR and 1.94 YPRR against single-high. Legette lines up out wide 67.1% of the time, and in the slot 32.9%. He should also see some combination of St-Juste and Sainristil, but could also see some action against Noah Igbinoghene, the Commanders primary slot CB (ranked 89^th out of 100 CBs by PFF).

Suggested Picks
Pass

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders

The rookie TE has seen a full time TE role the past 2 weeks after Tommy Tremble left week 5 with a concussion. His route rate participation has been 70.7% and 70% respectively, whereas in the previous 3 weeks it did not reach 40% once. It’ll be interesting to see if Tremble will be able to clear concussion protocol in time, which would likely make this more of a time share. He was effective last week, with 5 receptions on 7 targets and 49 receiving yards. Against 2-high, which the Saints play at the 6^th highest rate, Sanders averages 1.17 YPRR and has been targeted on 24% of his routes. This is too volatile of a situation for me to trust either side.

Suggested Picks
Pass

QB Jayden Daniels

Daniels faces a CAR team that runs the 3^rdhighest zone rate (78.4%) and the 3^rd highest single-high rate (67.9%), as they rank 29^th in passing yards allowed per attempt and 31^st in passing TDs allowed. More specifically, their main coverage scheme is Cover 3, playing this at the highest rate in the NFL at 52.6% frequency. Against Cover 3, Daniels is averaging 9.31 yards per attempt and has a 96.2 QB rating. He also averages 8.9 yards per attempt and has a 101.2 QB rating against single-high. Looking at the Panthers pressure rate, they have the 2^nd lowest amongst teams playing week 7, at a 25.8% rate. When Daniels is not pressured, he averages 8.53 yards per attempt and a 108.3 QB rating. This is not a team I’d consider targeting Daniels rushing as they have one of the lowest pressure rates in the league and only allow 4 rush attempts to QB per game. Daniels has only scrambled 6 times when not pressured, compared to 25 scrambles when he is pressured.

Suggested Picks
“O” 242.5 Pass Yds -110
“U” Rush Attempts (Not out yet)
(Expecting 9.5/10.5) 

RB Brian Robinson

The Panthers are allowing 4.49 YPC, 18^th most in the league. They are better against man/gap concepts compared to zone concept runs. They allow 5.07 YPC against zone concept runs, vs 4.15 YPC against man/gap concepts. Robinson has been the lead back but has been less efficient than Ekeler in both concepts. He averages 3.56 YPC in zone concepts, whereas he averages 5.23 YPC in man/gap concepts.

Suggested Pick
Awaiting Lines 

RB Austin Ekeler

Ekeler has ran man/gap concepts 60.7% of the time, and more effective averaging 7.24 YPC and a 58.8% success rate. This compares to 3.8 YPC and a 40% success rate in zone concept. Ekeler’s strengths are where the Panthers are relatively better defensively.

Suggested Pick
Awaiting lines (decent matchup)

WR Terry McLaurin

If you look at McLaurin’s advanced statistics vs Cover 3, which the Panthers play at the highest rate in the NFL, McLaurin averages an elite 4.06 YPRR and a 29% target share (from week 3 forward). I am stripping out the first 2 weeks where Daniels was still figuring out the offense and did not yet have a connection with McLaurin. His 4.06 YPRR against Cover 3 ranks 4 amongst all qualifying WRs. Looking at his pre-snap alignment, he has aligned on the outside 79.7% of the time. The Panthers run primarily zone so specific matchups aren’t too important, but they do allow the 4^th most YPRR to outside alignment WRs (2.33).

Suggested Picks
“O” 65.5 Rec Yds (-115)
80+ (+162)
100+ (+320)

WR Noah Brown

Against Cover 3, Brown averages 2.00 YPRR (2^nd on WAS) and has been targeted on 25% of his routes. After missing week 5 due to injury, he ran a route on 57.1% of WAS dropbacks. He led the Commanders in targets with 8, he should clearly be seen as the #2 receiving option behind McLaurin at this point. Brown has played 82.6% of his snaps out wide, so he’s another matchup to target against CAR weak perimeter coverage.

Suggested Picks
“O” 33.5 Rec Yds (-120)
40+ (+114)
50+ (+180)
60+ (+280)

TE Zach Ertz

Against Cover 3, Ertz averages 1.51 YPRR and a 20% target share. His 1.51 YPRR against Cover 3 ranks 6^th among the Commanders. Ertz has lined up inline 30.4% of the time, the slot 53.9% of the time, and out wide 7.1% of the time. The Panthers rank 17^th in YPRR vs the slot (1.79) and allow a 29.9% slot target rate (25^th highest). Overall, the Panthers scheme is not a matchup where I want to target Ertz.

Suggested Picks
Pass

The Commanders are scoring the 2^nd most ppg on the season, whereas the Panthers are allowing the most ppg on defense. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has been incredible to start his career, and this has the makings for a blowout win. The Panthers only average 17.2 PPG, and the Commanders defense has improved the past couple of weeks, outside of the Ravens, who no one can stop. I expect Washington to rest their starters early, and if Carolina decides to bring in Bryce Young, I just don’t see a lot of garbage points being scored.

Best Bet (Under 51.5 -120)
Lean (Commanders –9.5 -110)
Commanders 31 Panthers 17