Dolphins vs Colts @1:00 EST

QB Tyler Huntley

He’s been brutal, man. Fortunately he had the BYE to learn the playbook better and for the MIA coaching staff to build a gameplan around him. He walks into a nice matchup coming out of the BYE. IND ranks 7th in passing yards allowed per game, 11th in passing TD’s, and 9th in completions. Huntley has been rocking a higher aDOT (9.5) than any of the other QB’s that have started for MIA. That shouldn’t be the game plan and I think MIA’s coaching will adjust. I’m expecting a more run-heavy and short passing game plan here. You have elite weapons, just get the ball into their hands and let them do the work. This Colts defense plays the 4th most zone coverage in the league (76.0%). Specifically, they play a ton of Cover 3 (3rd highest in the league). IND allows the 9th highest aDOT (8.3), the 5th highest completion percentage (69.9%) and the 3rd lowest drop % (2.1%). That sounds like a recipe for success for both QB completions and pass catcher receptions. By no means do I think he’s going to transform into a great QB, but I expect a better effort coming out of the BYE.

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‘O’ 17.5 Completions -130
‘O’ 0.5 TD Passes -235

RB De’Von Achane

Achane has cleared the concussion protocol and is good to play. He’s an absolutely electric runner and he runs in both zone and man/gap schemes. IND has allowed the 2nd most rush yards per game this season. Now concussions aren’t like other injuries. They don’t affect your future performance, unless you suffer another one. What’s interesting is that although they allow a lot of rushing yards, they are ranked 20th in explosive run %. That signals to me that the volume might be needed to get over rushing marks. Achane, who’s built on explosive plays, may be harder to trust with Mostert back in the thick of things.

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RB Raheem Mostert

Moster is back and might continue to be the hammer in this offense. However, we just don’t know his role, how good this offense will be and how effective he will be coming off his injury. For that, this is a stay away for me.

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WR Tyreek Hill

It’s been a struggle with Huntley under center. As I mentioned before, I think the new game plan works on a shorter passing attack. If that’s the case, both this receiving line and reception line is just too low for me. They will find ways to get their playmaker the ball, whether it be in the screen game or in the crossing game. He’s coming off a 6 reception, 69 receiving yard week before the BYE. IND ranks 14th in yards per reception, 22nd in YAC/REC, 8th in yards per target and the 9th most receptions to pass catchers this season. Despite a shaky QB situation, Hill still owns a very solid 6.1 YAC per reception this season. Give the man the ball and let him create yards on his own.

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‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -125

WR Jaylen Waddle

I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but you can probably predict what I’m going to say here. Even with Huntley, he has 4 catches in each of the two games! I’m not expecting much difference here. Waddle also holds a very solid 4.90 YAC per reception and is almost at a 20% target share this season. Both of these WR’s are an integral part of this offense and both should be involved.

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‘O’ 3.5 Receptions -135

TE Jonnu Smith

Smith is also interesting from a reception perspective after coming off a 5-catch game in NE. IND allows the 5th most receptions to opposing TE’s this season, despite allowing the 15th most receiving yards to TE’s. We are getting plus money in this spot, which is very tempting. Not to mention that IND’s defense ranks 9th in checkdown % this season at 10.9%. Checkdowns include both RB’s and tight ends. Smith has been very hot and cold this season, but this looks like a nice plus money spot to take advantage.

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‘O’ 2.5 Receptions +120

QB Anthony Richardson

Welcome back A-Rich! I’m not sure that’s a great thing for your pass catchers, but it’s nice to see him healthy. 

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RB Trey Sermon

Well, Sermon is active, but unfortunately he’s shown nothing in Taylor’s absence. He’s averaging just 2.5 yards per carry and has yet to eclipse 40 yards rushing. Yes, MIA is a solid target. They have allowed the 7th most rushing yards per game this season, but how does IND continue to roll out this guy when Goodson has just been better. This MIA defense ranks 19th in explosive runs % and a solid 10th in stuff %. They do rank 1st in YAC per attempt, but Sermon only owns 1.38 yards after contact per attempt. Despite a decent matchup this looks like a great under.

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‘U’ 48.5 Rushing Yards -120

RB Tyler Goodson
I’m not seeing a line for him yet, but he;s worth a look. I have a feeling he carves out more of a role given his success so far this season. He’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry this season and just seems like a better fit in this offense whether Richardson is the QB or Flacco is. I’ll be peaking at his lines if they show up and you should too.

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‘O’ Rushing Yards (when it posts)

WR Michael Pittman

Yes, I know his track record hasn’t been great with Richardson, but 3.5? C’mon now, I’ve gotta look at it. Even with Richardson he’s cleared this mark in 3 of 4 games with the only miss being at 3 recs. Pittman has shown how reliable he can be over the last couple of games and that can’t go unnoticed. I don’t love his receiving line because he can simply be an outlet play at times, but his receptions look like a great look at a reasonable price. This will move before Sunday.

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‘O’ 3.5 Receptions -150

WR Josh Downs

Guess Downs’ target % this season? What if I told you it was 9th in the entire league at 26.3% (insert mind blown gif). The problem is we don’t exactly know how that will translate with Richardson back. IMO, I got to take a chance on the talent. Only guys above him are Nabers, Jefferson, Wilson, Godwin, Pickens, St. Brown, Flowers and Cooper. That’s good company for a 4.5 rec line and a 48.5 receiving yard line. He’s coming off three 65+ rec yard weeks. IND is allowing a 8.3 aDOT, which ranks 10th in the league and a catch rate of 74.2%, which ranks 6th. They rank 7th in yards per route run and 14th in yards per reception. Ultimately they can be had through the air. The biggest question mark is Richardson and what he’ll bring to the table. I’m going to go with the talent here and say Downs will get his in this one.
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‘O’ 4.5 Receptions +110
'O' 48.5 Rec Yds -120

TE Mo Alie-Cox

In the 4 games Richardson has played in MAC has only had 1 target in each. If they drop a 1.5 Rec line, I’ll happily take the under. Given his big play ability, I can’t simply just fade the receiving yards. In those 4 games, he’s only had one catch for 22 yards. MIA has allowed the 7th fewest receiving yards to opposing TE’s this season and 10th fewest receptions per game. This is a fade or stay away for me.

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‘U’ 1.5 Reception (not yet open)

I really do think that Huntley and MIA look better after the BYE. Having Achane back makes the run game more explosive and I think they run with a shorter passing attack vs a vulnerable Colts defense. Richardson being back is great, but also a liability. He should help the run game, but he still makes too many mistakes as a passer. I expect both teams to work clock and move down the field slowly. I think we’ll see a low scoring affair between two teams that are struggling offensively, despite solid matchups.

Best Bet (‘U’ 43.5 -110)
Lean (MIA +3.5 -125)
Colts 21, Miami 20