Bengals vs Browns @1:00 EST

QB Joe Burrow

How to beat CLE is through the air. Burrow is pretty good at doing that. However, CLE play man coverage at the #1 rate this season. Surprisingly, Burrow has struggled more against man than zone this season. Against man he holds a 54.5% completion percentage (CMP%), a 103.2 passer rating and a 1.8% turnover-worthy throw %. Versus zone he holds an 81.4% CMP%, 110.2 passer rating and 0% turnover-worthy throw %. One noticeable difference for Burrow is he likes to throw down the field more against man with a 9.7 aDOT and 14% deep throw percentage. Versus zone, he holds a 5.7 aDOT and 6.3% DT%. Despite ranking 24th in coverage grading according to PFF, they only allow the 23rd most passing yards per game (211). Burrow has had 2+ passing touchdowns in 4 of 6 games this season, but these divisional games, especially in the AFC North can be slogs with limited offense. In 7 of Burrow’s last 7 divisional games he has been under his passing yards mark, despite having 2+ passing touchdowns in 6 of them. The Bengals offensive line has made strides, but still only ranks 15th in pass blocking this season. CLE’s pass rush, meanwhile, ranks 5th. Burrow is likely going to be under pressure quite a bit in this one.

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‘U’ 253.5 Passing Yards

RB Zack Moss

Moss just hasn’t looked good this season. He’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has only crossed the 50-yards rushing mark twice in 6 games. We may have seen a changing of the guard this past week and the books have reflected that. After a 60+ snap share count in the first 5 games, Moss only saw 45% of the snaps in week 6. Meanwhile, after not seeing over 40% of the snap share in the first 5 weeks, Chase Brown saw a 62% snap share last week. Chase has just looked better. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has three 50+ rushing games under his belt already this season. As I mentioned though, the books have taken that into account already so this isn’t a smash under spot. Despite being a solid run defense, CLE has given up 137.4 rushing yards per game. That’s likely more due to volume and game flow since they are ranked 12th lowest in yards per carry allowed. They do rank 5th in explosive run %, but that isn’t Moss’ game.

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Pass

RB Chase Brown

Here’s the likely new RB1 of the Bengals. As a runner, he has been superior to Moss in most statistical categories. Here’s the problem… Moss primarily runs in the man/gap scheme and Brown runs mostly zone. CLE’s defense defends the zone scheme much better than the map/gap scheme. They rank 20th in success rate allowed to man/gap, but 29th vs zone. Brown can also catch the ball. He’s received at least 3 targets in each of the last 4 games. Unfortunately it hasn’t amounted to much as he has yet to turn those receptions into more than 12 receiving yards. It doesn’t get easier this week against a defense that ranks 31st in checkdown % and backfield target % (12.1%). Despite getting a huge bump in snap share last week, he didn’t see more passing volume. Why is that? Well, he’s just not a good pass blocker and they prefer Moss back there. Against a good defensive front, I think they will still prefer Moss blocking out of the backfield.

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‘U’ 2.5 Receptions -150

WR Ja’Marr Chase

CLE ranks 23rd in receiving yards allowed per game this season. However, they do rank 3rd in aDOT at 9.7 and 3rd in yards per reception (12.41). Do they allow YAC? Yes they do, ranking 3rd in YAC per reception (6.50) to receivers and 2nd in missed tackles forced per reception. They allow the highest 1st read percentage in the league and allow significantly more targets to outside WR’s and the slot than to inline receivers and the backfield. Pretty good news for Ja’Marr who runs both out wide and in the slot. Ja’Marr ranks 4th in receiving yards per game (94.2) and 1st in YAC per reception with at least 150 routes run. CLE’s coverage corners just haven’t been that good. How have other WR1’s done? Very well. AJ Brown is coming off a 6 for 116 and a TD. McLaurin the week prior had 4 for 112. Nabers went 8 for 78 and 2 touchdowns. Plenty to like here for Chase.

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‘O’ 75.5 Receiving Yards -110
Anytime Touchdown +105

WR Tee Higgins

If you think it’s going to be a Chase game, Higgin may disappoint to some degree. Higgins is a great WR, but he’s not the type of YAC/burner than Chase is. The last time he faced CLE, he was shut out. I certainly don’t think that happens again here, but I’m not dying to take his overs. Higgins also holds an impressive aDOT at 9.7, but lacks the YAC-ability with only a 3.52 yards after the catch per reception. As I think the volume could be more limited, I think taking advantage of the YAC weakness CLE provides will be important. Higgins still holds and impressive target share (25.7%) so I’m not looking to fade him, but you have to typically buy into one of the two offensive threats, especially in a divisional matchup.

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TE Mike Gesicki

Big discrepancy in this line! I’ve seen as high as 20.5 and as low as 14.5. This is not a particularly good matchup for Gesicki who’s already seen a low snap share, averaging just about 40%. He does line up out of the slot, so it’s not automatic that he is destined for the inline role, which CLE protects very well. CLE allows the 11th fewest receiving yards to opposing TE’s and 6th fewest receptions. CLE’s defense really limits checkdown throws so if we can get a reception line at 3.5 or at a nice 2.5 price, I’ll look at the under here.

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‘U’ 3.5/2.5 Receptions (not posted yet)

QB Deshaun Watson

Should he be starting? No. Do I enjoy watching him be awful? YES. From a passing perspective, this presents a middle of the road matchup. CIN ranks 21st in passing yards allowed per game. The passing yards prop is just too low to fade him on that prop, especially what could be a negative game script. Watson ranks 10th lowest in deep throw % and turnover-worthy throw %. This is a super conservative offense because Deshaun Watson stinks. After week 1 when he threw 2 picks, he’s only thrown one since in the last 5 weeks. Guess who that one interception was thrown for? Yup, Amari Cooper, who is no longer there. If you go back and watch the tape it even hit him straight in the chest and popped up for the INT so it wasn’t Watson’s fault. CIN is also in the middle of the pack in INT’s forced with only 4 in 6 games. We get Nick Chubb back this week, so I’m expecting a conservative gameplan here.

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‘U’ 0.5 Interceptions +115

RB Nick Chubb

Who knows what to expect from Chubb this week in his first start back from his gruesome injury. It’s a solid matchup for him against a CIN defense that has allowed the 14th most rushing yards per game and 6th most rushing touchdowns per game this season (1 per game). I’m expecting a pretty light workload for him in this one as the Browns have no reason to rush him back. They are pretty much out of contention already, sitting at 1-5 with an abysmal offense, especially after trading away Amari Cooper. Typically, leg injuries will hamper a running back early as well. He’s looked fine in practice, but there is also no reason why CIN doesn’t stack the box early just in case he looks good. With little understanding of how this plays out, the safer side is to take the under, especially with how bad this offense has been.

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‘U’ 40.5 Rushing Yards -105

WR Jerry Jeudy

Say hello to the new WR1 in CLE! CIN allows the 18th most receiving yards to opposing WR’s this season. We just don’t know how this is all going to shake out with no Amari Cooper on an offense that was already limited. I honestly don’t have much to say about him or Moore. I want to just wait and see how it shakes out. Of QB’s that qualify, Watson shows the 6th lowest aDOT, 10th lowest deep throw % and lowest adjusted net yards per attempt. And that is with deep threat Amari Cooper. While Cooper was the clear-cut #1 in this offense, Jeudy doesn’t have that same certainty. 

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TE David Njoku

Now here’s a guy I kind of like more. CIN allows the 13th most receiving yards to opposing TE’s this season. They move Njoku all over the field and he can be a safety blanket or a deep threat. CIN has also allowed the 3rd most touchdowns to opposing TE’s, which Njoku has yet to score this season (thanks Deshaun). Sadly enough, Njoku doesn’t even have a redzone target this season. Njoku is CLE’s YAC guy. He’s averaging 6.7 yards after the catch per reception this season. I think CLE will want to rely on the run game, but are still going to have to pass. We have seen TE’s involved in the passing game vs this CIN team. Theo Johson cleared his reception mark with 3 catches last week for NYG. Andrews and Likely combined for 68 yards and 2 TD’s. I think the biggest beneficiary of Cooper leaving may be Njoku, who’s been a reliable target in the past.

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‘O’ 4.5 Receptions -125

This Browns team has failed to clear 17 points in EVERY game this season. The CIN defense is not great, but Watson has been the worst QB in the league by several metrics. Now he loses the most explosive player on his team? I know, I almost cried when I read Chubb’s return letter, but he likely won’t be much of a factor this week. I trust Burrow to get some points on the board with these weapons. What I don’t trust is Watson to “prove us all wrong.” I look forward to continue to enjoy his downfall and a CIN win, one of which they really need in division.

Best Bet (Bengals -5.5 -110)
Best Bet (Browns TT ‘U’ 17.5 -110)
Lean (‘U’ 41.5 -110)

Bengals 24, Browns 10