Seahawks vs Falcons @1:00

QB Geno Smith

Geno leads the league in dropbacks, passing attempts, completions (by 30) and yards through the first 6 weeks. Yet he still only has 6 passing touchdowns to show for it, which ranks him alongside Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts. He faces an ATL team that runs mostly Cover 3 and primarily a zone coverage scheme. Geno has struggled more against Cover 3 this season, at least in terms of being able to move the ball down the field quickly. On the season vs all coverages, Geno holds a 7.3 aDOT, 5.60 ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt), 8.9 deep throw %, 8.1 check down % and 26.6 pressure %. Against Cover 3, he owns a 6.0 aDOT, 4.82 ANY/A, 6.5 deep throw %, 12.9% checkdown % and only a 15.2% pressure rate. So this means that he’s throwing shorter passes and using his checkdownutlets, despite being under pressure less each drop back. Meanwhile ATL is allowing the 32nd most yards per game through the air. Given how much he’s thrown this season, I don’t particularly want to fade his receiving yards and given Metcalf’s explosiveness, I don’t want to fade his longest pass either. What a shorter and more condensed pass game can get you is more attempts/completions. Geno has been willing to run this season too. He’s rushed 9 times for 135 yards and a touchdown. That has him in line with Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams, and ahead of guys like Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones. ATL has allowed the most rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season (227 yards), while having the fewest sacks (5) and ranked 8th lowest in pressure % (28.7%). After watching some film, ATL not getting pressure quickly in a zone coverage scheme creates plenty of open space in the middle of the field for the QB to take off.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 24.5 Completions -120
‘O’ 11.5 Rushing Yards -110

RB Kenneth Walker III

ATL ranks 21st in run defense this season and have allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game in 2024. Walker has run pretty evenly in both zone and man/gap schemes. ATL has allowed the 7th highest success rate to zone schemes, while allowing the 2nd highest success rate to man/gap rushing concepts. Walker has just been really inconsistent from a rushing perspective and SEA is seemingly always ready to abandon the run game. He’s coming off back to back sub-35 yard rushing games after starting the season with two 80+ rushing games. One development that is nice to see this season is Walker’s involvement in the passing game. After running routes last season on only 35.5% rate last season, but that number has jumped to 42.5% this season. He’s gone three straight with 35+ receiving yard games with back to back 8 target games. Check down % for Geno jumps from 8% to 13% when facing Cover 3. ATL is allowing a 16.1% target share to the backfield, which puts them right in the middle of the pack this season, but they do allow the 4th highest check down % (12.6%). I want to see more consistency out of Walker as a rusher before I consider those props, but the receiving side is interesting.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions -115

WR DK Metcalf

Based on the boxscore, Metcalf is coming off a subpar game vs SF. However, he could have easily had a much better game if fortune (and the calls) went his way. He was an inch out of bounds on a touchdown grab and had two long touchdown grabs called back due to penalties that weren’t caused by him. This is a tough matchup to sort out. As an explosive WR, he tends to rely on big chunk plays to help him cross his receiving yards prop over. However, ATL is allowing the 27th most receiving yards per game and 32nd most receiving yards per reception. On the season Metcalf owns a 13.5 aDOT, 15.15 yards per reception (YPR), and a 6.00 yards after catch per reception (YAC/R) with 4 end zone targets. Versus Cover 3 his numbers slip: 12.1 aDOT, 10.88 YPR, 3.76 YAC/R with no end zone targets. So it’s a bad matchup right? Well, interestingly enough although his numbers dip, his usage doesn’t. On the season he’s averaged a 21.5% target share and 25.6% 1st read rate. Versus Cover 3 his numbers go up - 24.2% target share and a 26.8% 1st read rate. So, he’s not as productive, but tends to get a little more volume.

Suggested Picks
PASS

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

This is a rough matchup for JSN despite clearing 50 receiving yards last week. He struggles predominantly against Cover 3, which ATL runs at the highest rate of all zone coverages this season. JSN’s target %, yards per route run (YPRR), yards per target (YPT) and yards per reception (YPR) all take a hit. On the season JSN is averaging a 19.1% target share, 1.33 YPRR, 6.46 YPT and 9.14 YPR. Against Cover 3, we see this line dip to a 11.3% target share, 0.64 YPRR, 5.15 YPT and 6.01 YPR. Those numbers pale in comparison to Metcalf and Lockett vs Cover 3 and even Noah Fant shows better numbers and a similar target share against this coverage type. Add to this that ATL’s defense ranks 32nd in YPR allowed and 27th in receiving yards per game, I like the yards angle over the receptions.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 49.5 Receiving Yards -120

WR Tyler Lockett

Lockett sees the biggest benefit this season when playing against Cover 3 coverage schemes. His target % remains relatively the same, but his YPR jumps from 13.05 to 16.34 and YPRR from 1.65 to 2.09. Dating back to last season, when Lockett has seen a snap share of 70% or more, he’s crossed 45 yards receiving in 7 of his last 10 and 8 of L10 on the road. He draws a nice slot WR matchup with Dee Alford who grades out as ATL’s worst CB with at least 100 pass snaps to this point in the season. On the outside, he should see AJ Terrell, who also grades out below a 65 on PFF.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 3.5 Receptions -120
‘O’ 45.5 Receiving Yards -110

TE Noah Fant

Fant has reeled in at least 2 catches in each game this season, but his yardage marks continue to be all over the place. ATL allows the 19th most yards per game 18th most receptions to opposing TE’s. Fant performs well against zone, but continues to be the 4th receiving option in this offense. I was expecting Barner to start to cut into Fant’s snap share, but it just hasn’t been the case yet. He’s received about 70% of the snap share each of the last 2 weeks and I don’t see why that changes. Fant does run both inline and out of the slot, so he may receive enough volume to get him over his reception or receiving yard marks. However, given ATL’s ability to force checkdowns and avoid longer, more explosive plays, his longest receiving catch may be worth a look.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 14.5 Longest Reception -110

QB Kirk Cousins

Kirk is averaging about 266 passing yards per game this season with 9 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He’s an absolute statue in the pocket and holds a single scramble for 1 yard this season. Kirk has struggled more against man than zone coverage this season, which is concerning given that SEA runs man coverage at the 12th highest rate in 2024. Kirk’s passer rating dips from a season average of 94.2 to 80.3 vs man. His completion % falls from 66.7% to 49.1% and his turnover-worthy throws tick up from 4.8% to 5.7%. You’d think this would make his interception prop interesting, but SEA is only forcing 0.33 interceptions per game, tied for 6th fewest. SEA is allowing the 11th fewest passing yards per game to opposing QB’s, 12th fewest passing attempts and 10th fewest completions. I’m not going to read too much into those numbers given the weak offenses they have played to date (besides DET and SF, of course). SEA does create pressure with a pressure % of 35.8%, which is 8th highest by a defense. When Kirk is under pressure he struggles. His completion % dips from 70.8% to 54.7% and passer rating from 104.4 to 65.0. That’s pretty typical though - most QB’s are going to struggle under pressure. The concern is that his TD to INT ratio moves from 7:2 to 2:3.

Suggest Picks
Pass

RB Bijan Robinson

We saw a Bijan breakout last week, but that was most likely due to the paper soft matchup vs Carolina. The problem is Allgeier isn’t going anywhere. The past 3 weeks, Bijan has failed to see snapshare north of 70%, while Allgeier has seen 35%+ each of the last 3. ATL’s run blocking continues to give these RB’s space to operate and rank 4th in run blocking. Meanwhile SEA’s run defense only ranks 19th and have allowed the 7th most rushing yards per game. They are allowing the 5th highest yards per carry (4.99), but only the 14th highest explosive run %. That could make it hard to trust Bijan if the more limited workload continues. All Bijan runs is zone (71 of 81 carries) and it can be frustrating to watch. He almost never runs in between the tackles to the point where defenses must know what’s coming. Seattle’s defense is better at defending zone rushing than map/gap schemes. They allow a 45.9% success rate vs zone, while allowing a 56.8% success rate vs man/gap. Allgeier also runs primarily zone, so it’s just the preferred scheme for Atlanta’s offense. SEA allows the 19th most receiving yards and receptions to opposing RB’s. They also rank 14th in backfield target share (16.4%) and 19th in checkdown % (8.8%). In the receiving game, the volume just hasn’t been there for Bijan. He’s averaging 3.2 receptions on 3.6 targets per game. His reception line sits at 3.5 and getting 4+ seems like a lot to ask from an efficiency standpoint.

Suggested Picks
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions -110

WR Drake London

After a brutal week 1, London has been as steady as they come with 50+ receiving yards and 6+ receptions in each of the last 5 weeks. London has gotten a very healthy target share this season (26%), which ranks him 12th of all NFL pass catchers. He’s had double-digit targets each of the last 3 games and it looks like Chemistry continues to build between Cousins and London. What’s interesting is that SEA’s defense allows the lowest aDOT to opposing pass catchers. SEA is allowing the 6th fewest receiving yards to opposing WR’s and 7th fewest receptions. However, it’s just too hard to read into that when they have only faced 2 good offenses this season. Besides SF and DET, they have faced DEN, NE, MIA (without Tua) and NYG. One crack in this SEA defense so far is they are allowing 8th most yards after contact per reception. Unfortunately, that is not one of London’s specialties with only a 3.13 YAC/R. SEA runs the 12th most man coverage in the league (30.2%). London performs well against both man and zone, but sees an uptick in target share (26% to 30%) and passer rating when targeted (110.6 to 118.8). He does see a downtick in yards per reception (11.3 to 9.6) though. I think both his receiving yards and receptions are in play, but receptions feels like a safer bet.

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 6.5 Receptions (LEAN)

TE Kyle Pitts

Seattle continues to be a nice matchup for TE’s! That likely means, this is a perfect letdown spot for Pitts… It’s still hard to ignore. After being an excellent matchup for TE’s last season, they are once again a good one in 2024. They have allowed 57.3 receiving yards per game, which ranks as the 4th most. They are giving up over 10 yards per reception to TE’s as well. The big concern with Pitts is the volume. His target share is only 12.5%, which is lower than London, Mooney and McCloud. He has been under his reception line of 3.5 in all but one game this season and is averaging 4.7 targets per game. Really all it takes is one big catch from Pitts and he does continue to be a menace in the open field. Of TE’s with at least 25 targets this season, he ranks 2nd in aDOT (9.1) and yards after the catch per route run (6.8).

Suggested Picks
‘O’ 39.5 Receiving Yards (LEAN)
‘O’ 19.5 Longest Reception (LEAN)

With a couple of middling defenses, both teams should find some success on the ground and through the air. It feels like this game has some sneaky shootout potential in the Mercedes-Benz Dome. We’ve seen line movement in favor of ATL and the over. We’ve gotten to a key number 3 for the spread and the total is up to 51. I think both teams can hang here and this looks like a nice bounce back spot for SEA and Geno Smith. ATL has scored 74 points over their last 2 games and despite SEA not looking their best, they have scored 20 or more points in every game this season. With a healthy Walker, SEA should come out aggressive after dropping their last 3 games.

Best Bet (‘O’ 50.5 -115)
Lean (Seahawks +3.5 -135)
Seahawks 28, Falcons 27