Lions vs Vikings @1:00 EST

QB Jared Goff

The Minnesota Vikings are in zone coverage 74% of the time, which is 10th highest rate of zone used in the NFL. Their defense lives and dies by being able to generate QB pressures, with the highest blitz rate in the league at 41.1%, and also the second highest pressure rate at 32.6% of the time. Goff has made some good throws under pressure all year, with a 7.54 YPA against pressure that ranks as the 7th highest in the NFL. He has also been remarkably accurate against zone defense, with a 65.4 completion% that is the 2nd highest in the NFL, which matches up well against with a Vikings defense that has given up a 60.3 completion % vs zone, which is the 4th highest in the NFL. Goff has an excellent matchup here, and I like him to have a big game and for this to evolve into a shootout, especially considering the advantages Darnold has on the Lions defense on the other side of the ball.

Suggested Play
Jared Goff
o22.5 pass completions (-117)
o250.5 pass yards (-117)
280+ pass yards (+195)

RB David Montgomery / RB Jahmyr Gibbs

The Lions have a 2-headed monster at RB, and like to alternate both Montgomery and Gibbs into the game frequently. They have run the ball often between these two backs, and also have made a point to get the ball to them in the passing game. Between the 2 backs, they have an average of 34.6 touches per game, which is the most of an NFL backfield. The issue is the Vikings strength has been their front 7 and in particular stopping the run game. While some of this is simply because teams have abandoned the run often against them because the Vikings have often led big in games, they also have a 52.7 stuff rate, which is the highest percentage in the NFL. Because of that, I would fade both RBs in the rush game, but take a chance on Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game to a defense that gives up the most total receptions in the NFL.

Suggested Play
Jahmyr Gibbs
o2.5 receptions (-160)
o3.5 receptions (+142)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St Brown gets a great matchup in his one on one in this game against Vikings CB Byron Murphy, who has been picked on all year. Murphy has allowed the most catches in the league at 35, and the second most targets at 48. He now faces one of the league’s better WRs in St Brown. Overall, St Brown has been the Lions best option against zone, which they will see often in this game against a Vikings defense that is zone 74% of the time, which is the 10th most in the NFL. He has been used often in intermediate routes against zone defense, with a 7.7 aDOT that ranks 3rd on the Lions behind Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick. With the Vikings also vulnerable in this part of the field while their run defense has been domiant, we can look for St Brown to have some opportunities there. He has also had pretty decent prior success vs the Vikings, and pulled down over 7 receptions in both of his starts last year.

Suggested Pick
Amon-Ra St. Brown o6.5 receptions (-117)

WR Jameson Williams

Williams also should see a fair share of the the liability that has been Byron Murphy this year, but also has a good matchup in this game due to how well he has fared against the blitz. The Vikings have the highest blitz % in the NFL at 41.1 as mentioned earlier. Against the blitz, Jameson Williams has 4.60 YPRR, which is just behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. He also leads the team in aDOT against the blitz at 16.6 and overall leads the Lions in explosive pass plays with 6. He has been more than serviceable against zone, which he will see often in this game as well, and is averaging 2.07 yards per routes run against the zone. Look for Williams to be a consistent advantage for the Lions here no matter what the Lions throw out defensively.

Suggested Pick
Jameson Williams o49.5 receiving yards (-105)

TE Sam LaPorta

LaPorta is a player who has seen a dip in production in his second year, and much of this is because his production has been impacted by the increased role from Jameson Williams. Last year he was a huge part of the offense last year, and garnered a target share of 23.9. This year this has fallen by more than double, as he is only seeing a target share of 11.7% in 2024. He may have a slightly better outlook in terms of target this week however given the amount of blitzes that the Vikings will likely throw at Goff, who has targeted LaPorta 17.6% of the time against the blitz.

Suggested Pick
Pass

QB Sam Darnold

Although Darnold finally showed some signs of weakness last week vs the Jets, this game vs the Detroit Lions defense seems to have some beneficial aspects for him this week. The Lions are in man coverage at the 4th highest rate in the NFL, at 38.5%. Darnold has absolutely shredded man coverage this year, and has an incredibly impressive 11.74 YPA when seeing man. The Lions have been good when they have been able to generate pressure on opposing QBs, allowing only 5.0 YPA, which is the 9th fewest in the NFL. However, much of their pressure was coming from Aidan Hutchinson, who actually led the league as a player with 45 QB pressures. Opposing QBs have been able to get comfortable when not facing pressure against the Lions, giving up a completion % of 71.5, which is 18th in the NFL. When under pressure, Darnold only has a 4.68 YPA, which is 23rd in the NFL. The Lions ability to get pressure on Darnold will determine a lot about their success against him, but given the impact of Hutchinson, I am not sure they can and like this matchup for a bounceback for Darnold, but I also think most lines on him are set accurately high.

Suggested Play
Pass

RB Aaron Jones

Jones left the Week 5 game early with a hip injury, and is expected to return in this game after practicing this week. When Jones played, he played well, averaging 5.9 YPC with the Vikings. Regardless of whether he does play or not, however, I do not necessarily love this matchup for him. Jones sees the Lions which allow 3.57 YPC to opposing RBs, which is the 5th fewest in the NFL. The impact of Hutchinson’s loss should not be too heavily felt here either, as opponents have actually been even worse with Hutchinson off the field, giving up 3.4 YPC. I do not expect a ton of work for Jones and for the Vikings to ease him back in slowly. When you combine that with the fact that is a much better passing matchup for the Vikings with Darnold against the Lions secondary, this is a tough spot.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson has been dominant against the man coverage that the Lions are in 38.5% of the time, which is the 4th most in the NFL. Jefferson has been targeted 31.2% of the time against man, which is by far the highest rate on his team, and one of the highest rates in the NFL. Jefferson also has an impressive 3.21 YPRR against man coverage, and has 26 receptions total. The next most receptions on the Vikings against man coverage is from Johnny Mundt with 9 receptions. The Lions specifically are also in cover 4 at the highest rate in the NFL, and Jefferson has the highest target share against cover 4 sets in the NFL, at an extremely high 37%. The Lions do have several injuries in their secondary, and have struggled as is. This is a solid spot for Jefferson to get open deep.. He has cleared his over longest reception prop in 6 straight games and I look for it to happen again.

Suggested Picks
Justin Jefferson o26.5 longest reception (-117)

WR Jordan Addison

In any coverage that is not Cover 1 or Cover 4, where Jefferson should dominate target share, Addison may be the guy that Darnold looks to. Against all other coverages, Addison has the highest YPRR on the team (yes, even over Jefferson) at 2.35. Addison overall, however, has performed much better against zone, which the Lions are not in often. Addison has a 24.0 target rate against zone, which is actually good for ranking 12th in the NFL. Addison should line up on Carlton Davis III, who has struggled this year in giving up the 9th most yards per route run. He also has battled injuries, and may not be 100% heading into this game.

Suggested Picks:
Pass

Both offenses have a good matchup in this one in terms of strengths of one team lining up with the weaknesses of another. To me, however, the difference is it is hard to ignore the struggles of Sam Darnold last week, even if it were just a small sample size. I also can’t imagine the blitz of the Vikings that has been such a difference maker being able to impact Goff as much as it has to other QBs it has faced

Best Bet (Over 49.5 -125)
Lean (Vikings ML -122)

Vikings 31 Lions 27