Titans vs Bills @1:00 EST

QB Will Levis

Will Levis is not off to a good sophomore campaign this season, and unfortunately, this matchup against the Bills will not make things much easier from a matchup standpoint. When Will Levis has done damage this year, it has primarily been against man coverage, but he will not see much man at all against the Bills, who are in man only 17.9% of the time, which is the 5th fewest in the NFL. The Bills are also in zone 74.9% of the time, which is the 7th highest in the NFL. Against zone, Levis is averaging just 5.70 YPA, which is the 6th lowest among NFL QBs with at least 25 dropbacks on the year. He also has been poor when under pressure, ranking 25th out of 27 QBs who have faced pressure on at least 25 dropbacks, with a 3.54 YPA under pressure. The Bills have generated pressure at the 8th highest mark in the NFL, at 34.4% of snaps. For a guy who has been bit by the turnover bug as bad as Levis has, this is not encouraging whatsoever. Look for Levis to struggle to get much of anything going in this tough matchup.

Suggested Play
Will Levis
u190.5 pass yards (-120)
o 0.5 INT's (-155)

RB Tony Pollard

Tyjae Spears is projected out this week for the Titans, which leaves presumably a very high workload for Tony Pollard in this game. With the issues on the offensive line for the Titans, he has averages only 0.31 yards until contact per rush, which is the lowest rate of all NFL RBs with 50 or more carries. What is interesting, however, is Pollard still has been able to create some yards after that first contact, with an average of 4.04 yards after contact, which is actually first in the NFL among backs with 50 or more carries on the season. The Bills have been solid in tackling and preventing yards after contact (only 2.06 YPA after contact which is the 6th fewest allowed in the NFL), but interestingly enough have not made first contact quickly. The Bills have allowed the highest YPC in the NFL defensively before contact at 2.69, and also. I like Pollard’s matchup in terms of efficiency here overall, but a likely losing game script for the Titans has me hesitant on pulling the trigger on anything.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Calvin Ridley

Ridley voiced his frustration after not pulling in a reception last week against the Colts to the media, and unfortunately for him this looks to be a tough matchup again vs the zone-heavy Bills. As earlier mentioned, the Bills are in zone 74.9% of the time which is the 7th most in the NFL. Ridley has struggled against zone defense. Despite the highest target rate on the team against zone at 15.5%, and a team high 96 routes against zone, he has not pulled down many catches, at only 1.03 YPRR, which ranks 5th among the Titans receiving corps. He gets a tough matchup in Rasul Douglas as well, who is giving up 0.84 YPRR against, which is 33rd among 90 cornerbacks. This is looking like another fade spot for Ridley to correlate with the passing under for Levis.

Suggested Play
Calvin Ridley u33.5 receiving yards

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins has seen by far the most success against zone coverage on the year, as he will see for much of the Sunday night game against the Bills, which are in zone the 7th most often of all NFL defenses on the season so far. He averages 9.3 yards per target, which is the highest on the team against zone, as well as 2.5 YPRR, also highest on the team. This 2.5 makes it the 36th highest mark of 100 qualifying NFL WRs, but with the overall struggles of the Titans passing game, this is not a bad number when accounting for QB play. The issue for Hopkins here is that despite an ok matchup against a zone-heavy team, he still has to face Christian Benford at CB. Benford is allowing only 0.48 YPRR, which is the 9th lowest among 90 CBs. I like Hopkins outlook more than Ridley in this game, but he will have to win at least a few one on ones if he is to have a big game receiving.

Suggested Play
Pass

QB Josh Allen

The Titans line up with 2 high safeties and the middle of the field open pre-snap on 54.5% of snaps, which is the 5th most in the NFL. This is good news for Josh Allen, who has faired well against the look. Allen has the 4th highest YPA against the look at 8.64 against 2-high safeties. Allen has aired it out deep often against this look, with a 10.2 aDOT, which is the 2nd highest mark in the NFL. Allen has also dealt with pressure nicely on the year, with a 7.08 YPA against pressure, which is the 7th highest in the NFL. He also has the highest aDOT in the league when facing pressure, at 15.1%. That is key this week, as now Allen has a new downfield threat to work with in Amari Cooper. The Titans have not generated much pressure, but do blitz at a top-10 rate in the NFL at 26.4%. The Titans overall have had some success against opposing passers, but also have not seen a great gauntlet of QBs. Look for Allen to be looking to take advantage of some areas to beat the Titans deep in this one.

Suggested Play
Josh Allen o34.5 long pass completion (-120)

RB Ray Davis

Starting RB for the Bills James Cook missed last week vs the Jets with a toe injury. While he has not been ruled out officially yet, I do not expect him to play this week, and I do anticipate a large role from Ray Davis even if Cook does end up suiting up. Davis is coming off a solid game last week, rushing for 20 carries and 97 yards. He has stuffed at a solid rate overall this year, with a 54.3 stuff% that ranks as the 14th highest among RBs with at least 25 carries. He also has not been particularly explosive, and has an explosive run rate of only 2.2% on the year. The Titans defense is also pretty solid at the point of contact against the run, with a 47.1 stuff% that ranks 11th in the NFL. From a volume standpoint I expect this to be a good matchup for Davis, particularly with the Bills presumably playing with the lead. However, the matchup overall is not great, especially when you consider the better options for the Bills in the passing game in this one. There are also too many unknowns here, including another backup RB in Ty Johnson potentially getting carries, as well as the status of James Cook.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Amari Cooper

All eyes in this game will be on the newly acquired Amari Cooper, who brings the deep threat that Josh Allen had been missing early in the season with the departure of Stefon Diggs in the offseason. It is obviously tough to say how immediately Cooper will fit in to the Bills offense, but he did draw a 22.8% target rate on the Browns. He also has a 13.8 aDOT, which will make him the ideal target for the deep balls that Allen has been often throwing this year. The 13.8 aDOT is the 18th highest in the NFL. He did only have a 1.07 YPRR with the Browns, but I anticipate that going up with drastically improved QB play in comparison to Deshaun Watson. I like this matchup for Cooper overall against the Titans defense as well, as Cooper has been good when seeing 2-high safeties. I just don’t know how quickly he is going to grasp an entirely new playbook with an entirely different offense, and I imagine it is going to take a couple of weeks before we see Cooper really mesh with Allen.

Suggested Play
Pass

WR Khalil Shakir

Shakir has the highest YPRR on the Bills against 2-high looks at 2.69, but has not seen as many routes overall against it, at only 39. Shakir did miss some time due to injury, so I do anticipate a much higher snap count in this game simply because he is finally regaining form after a lighter workload last week. Shakir has seen 17.50 yards per reception while facing 2-man, which is extremely high, but also correlative with Allen’s preference to test this look deep. What this all tells me is that the Bills are very careful in how they use and line up Shakir against 2-man sets, but that when he is running routes and getting targets, they are paying off. With Cooper still likely not being totally ingrained in the offense, look for Shakir to continue to deep the current deep threat at a lower volume.

Suggested Play
Khalil Shakir o longest reception
{Line not up yet but play up to 23.5.

TE Dalton Kincaid

Kincaid is a player who has been a huge part of this Bills offense, and one of Josh Allen’s top targets without Stefon Diggs. He has been targeted on 23.8% of his routes run, which is 4th among all NFL TEs, and also has a 20.7 target share, also ranking 4th among TEs. He has faired well against 2-high safety looks, with 2.33 YPRR that ranks 2nd on the Bills behind Shakir. While there is some possibility that Kincaid’s usage falls with Cooper now on the roster, I am not so sure how much. The Bills have made a point to get the ball to their TE, with 23.1% of his targets coming on designed plays specifically to Kincaid, which is the most designed plays of any TEs or WRs on the team. 

Suggested Play
Pass

There may be enough on the defensive side of the ball for Tennessee to keep this close through the 1st and 2nd quarter, but it is hard to have any confidence at all in them on the offensive side to keep up in what is an overall tough matchup for them. Look for Tennessee to try and work Buffalo on the ground early, but when they fall behind they will likely pivot and with little answers.

Best Bet (Bills -8.5 -110)
Lean (Under 41.5 -125)
Bills 24 Titans 10