Lions Team Overview
QB Jared Goff
The Texans have allowed the 3rd fewest passing yards per game this season (190.7). What’s interesting is that despite allowing the 3rd fewest pass yards, they have allowed the most passing TD’s per game (2.11). They are allowing the 10th lowest passer rating (84.5) and the 3rd highest deep throw %. Finally HOU have forced the 4th highest turnover-worthy pass rate this season (5%). To break that all down, teams are trying to push the ball down the field, but haven’t been very successful. The biggest concern with taking any Goff overs is this season there have been times where he has let the ground game do most of the work. What is interesting is he gets Williams back this week, which is a legitimate deep threat for Goff. In games with Williams, he has cleared this week’s longest pass in 5 of 6. HOU has been susceptible to the play action this season and Goff and this passing offense use it a lot.
Suggest Picks
‘O’ 1.5 Passing TD’s (+120)
Longest Pass ‘O’ 34.5 Yards (-117)
RB David Montgomery
HOU has been very solid against the run this season. They are allowing the 28th highest TD rate to the rushing attack this season and the 21st most rushing yards per game (114.2). DET does such a good job with their running game, it’s hard to try and fade either Monty of Gibbs. Monty has scored in 6 of 8 games this season, while clearing 40 rushing yards in just 4 of them. HOU has been good against both the zone and man/gap rushing concepts this season, while holding the 8th highest stuff %. However, they do hold the 3rd highest explosive run % this season. Monty is a banger, rather than an explosive back. I’ll fade Monty here in the yardage department, but won’t be surprised if he scores again.
Suggested Picks
‘U’ 60.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs has been excellent. He’s had 60+ rushing yards in each of his last 7 games and is averaging 82 rushing yards per game this season. The explosive run % comes into play with Gibbs, so I’ll look to back him over in this one. Sometimes both RB’s eat, but I think this matchup sets up much better for Gibbs. His LR is set at 16.5, which he’s cleared in 6 of the last 7 games. We’ve seen LR’s from recent RB’s against this HOU offense: Hall (16 yards), JT (28), Jacobs (27), Cook (12), Bigsby (58) and Jones (39). Gibbs is arguably more explosive than several of these guys.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 60.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Longest Rush ‘O’ 16.5 Yards (-125)
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Firstly, this man has a touchdown in 6 straight games. His celebrations continue to be fantastic. Why wouldn’t we back him again here? As I mentioned, despite HOU being stingy in terms of yardage, they are still allowing a lot of TD’s through the air. St. Brown has a whopping 13 redzone targets in this season alone, which is tied for 4th most in the league. Given how efficiently DET can move the ball, he has a nice chance again this week. At plus money none-the-less! From a reception and yarage perspective, we’ve talked about how stingy this HOU defense can be. He’s been really up and down this season in terms of yardage. He’s had 75+ receiving yards in 3 games and less than 50 in 4 games. I’m not looking to back him in either rec yards or recs here in a tough matchup.
Suggested Picks
1+ TD(+120)
WR Jameson Williams
As I mentioned in the Goff segment, this spot sets up really nicely for Williams, who is their true deep threat in this offense. He’s a lower volume, big play threat with 70+ receiving yards in 4 of 6 games he played in this season. With HOU allowing a high deep throw %, they are more likely to give up a long reception. Williams got a low line of 37.5 in his first game back and I like that number quite a bit for a guy that could hit it on one play. His LR is also worth a look at 20.5, but with it being close to his overall receiving line, I’ll pass.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
TE Sam LaPorta
After backing LaPorta the last couple weeks, this may be the spot to fade him here. HOU is allowing the fewest receiving yards and receptions to opposing TE’s this season. HOU is allowing the 3rd lowest checkdown throw % this season as well. As LaPorta gets more involved, we get more inflated lines and this looks like the perfect spot to fade him.
Suggested Picks
‘U’ 36.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
‘U’ 3.5 Receptions (-120)
Texans Team Overview
QB C.J. Stroud
DET is allowing the 2nd most passing attempts (38.3) to opposing QB’s per game and 5th most passing yards (265.8), which is likely due in some part to a regular negative game script created by the potent DET offense. However, they are allowing the 3rd fewest passing touchdowns (0.75) per game (almost the complete opposite trend of HOU’s defense). CJ is likely going to have to throw in this one. Having Nico back would be huge, as he’s cleared 215 passing yards in every game this season with Collins. He’s had 3 games at home with Collins this season: 36 attempts with 23 completions for 260 yards and a TD, 40 PA with 27 comps for 345 yards and 2 TD’s, and 38 PA with 28 comps for 331 yards and a TD. Stroud has always played better in his career at home and if we do get Collins back, his overs are all worth a look.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 31.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
‘U’ 3.5 Carries (-159)
RB Joe Mixon
DET is allowing the 26th most rushing yards per game this season (106.4) with the 6th highest yards per carry allowed (4.84) and 10th highest explosive run percentage (6.3%). I mentioned it last week, but losing Hutchinson was huge for the D-line. Despite being in a negative game script, we just saw Jacobs rush 13 times for 95 yards (7.3 YPC) and Jones rush 14 times for 93 yards and a TD (6.6 YPC). Mixon has been a fantastic workhorse this season. He’s had 4 straight 100+ yard rushing games and 24+ RA’s in his last 3. There is no reason they won’t try to lean on him again here in this one. If you want to slow down DET’s offense (especially indoors), controlling the ball can help. Mixon also has a TD in 5 of 6 games he’s played, averaging 1.2 TD’s per game. Mixon has been a heavy zone runner this season. DET has been much better against zone than man/gap, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ 79.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
1+ TD (-150)
WR Nico Collins
Nico has been officially designated for return from IR, which means he could play this week. However, the fact that he wasn’t designated for return and is truly questionable has me worried. Even if he plays, I’m imagining a limited workload with some chance of re-aggravation. There is no way I can look at an over for him here unless we get official news of a full workload without any restrictions. The Lions can be thrown on, allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing WR’s (209 per game). Some of that is likely due to game flow, given how good the DET offense is. However, they have been more susceptible to WR’s out of the slot this season. Nico primarily plays on the outside with only a 17.4% slot percentage. We have seen DET hold good outside WR’s to reasonable numbers: Jefferson (7 for 81), Lamb (7 for 89) Harrison Jr (5 for 64) and Evans (3 for 42). We could easily see Nico slot back in to being a dominant force, but with a late return from the IR and questionable tag, I’m hesitant to look at overs.
Suggested Picks
PASS
WR Tank Dell
Tank Dell is tough to consider at his current line of 62.5 without knowing if Nico is playing or not. If he’s playing, it’s tough to consider his over even as the #2 in this offense. If Nico ins’t playing, this seems like a very reasonable number, as well as his reception line at 4.5. Dell is a deep threat who holds the highest aDOT on the team with at least 40 targets. The volume is just so dependent on if Nico plays or not.
Suggested Picks
PASS
WR Robert Woods
Here’s a sneaky guy I like regardless if Nico plays or not. Diggs was the primary slot WR for this HOU offense and Woods stepped into that role last week with Diggs out for the season (65.2% slot percentage). Slot WR’s have really been a struggle spot for the DET defense: J. Reed (5 for 113), T. Lockett (5 for 61)/JSN (8 for 51), C. Godwin (7 for 117). We should easily see a heavy passing script if HOU gets down early. Last week he saw a season-high in receiving yards (44 on a pair of catches). We don’t have a line yet, likely with Nico in flux, but he may be worth a look depending on the line.
Suggested Picks
‘O’ Receiving Yards (consider when it is released)
TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz has only cleared 35 receiving yards once the entire season and we get a line at 39.5. So, the matchup must be great right? Nope, not really. DET is allowing the 2nd fewest receiving yards to opposing TE’s this season and 3rd fewest receptions. If you want to beat this secondary, it’s on the outside. He has cleared this reception total 3 times this season, but again the matchup isn’t good. The volume has been decent and that’s why I think the books are hanging such a high line. He has 6+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games. I just can’t get on board, so I’ll happily fade his receiving line here.
Suggested Picks
‘U’ 39.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Game Prediction
This is assuming Collins plays close to full strength, but I like the Texans at home here. It always feels gross fading the Lions, who can absolutely blow doors on any given week, but Stroud and the Texans can keep pace with this Lions offense if the HOU defense can continue doing its part by slowing down the opposition. Slowing down this Lions offense early is key, because they can run away with a game so quickly. I continue to think losing Hutchinson is a massive deal and Mixon should have success on the ground here.
Best Bet (Texans +4.5 -125)
Lean (‘O’ 48.5 Pts -115)
Lions 30 Texans 27