Jets vs Cardinals @4:25 EST

QB Aaron Rodgers

Oh boy, this Jets team was not saved by Aaron Rodgers like they thought they would be. He's starting to show flashes of his 40-year-old age as he doesn't have the same speed or quick instincts as he used to have, which is reflected in his play. This season, Rodgers is averaging 234.1 passing yards and 6.7 yards per attempt, which all rank as his second-worst statistical season since becoming a full-time starter in 2008. He's also not airing the ball out as much as he has a 7.5 aDoT, the third lowest aDoT of his career and a full 1.3 yards lower than his career average. But in this match against the Cardinals, Rodgers might have an advantage. Arizona runs man coverage around league average at 25.1%. Rodgers has been tested against man coverage the most in the league, with 131 of his dropbacks, resulting in him leading the league in passing yards against man coverage (734). But, as we discussed earlier, Rodgers hasn't been a deep ball guy this year, which perfectly aligns with this Cardinals defence, who allow the seventh-lowest aDoT (8.3) and deep throw percentage (9.9%) in man coverage. The Cardinals pass defence allows the ninth most passing yards (242.44) and pass completions (22.1). However, they rank 16th in pass attempts, meaning that they're allowing a high percentage of their passes completed. In fact, the Cardinals allow the sixth-highest completion percentage at 69.7% (nice). So it's a lot of short, dink-and-dunk passes they're allowing, which bodes well for how Rodgers' stats reflect this season.

Suggested Pick:
25+ Completions (+210)

RB Breece Hall

I think the word solid is the best way to describe Breece Hall this season. He hasn't been relatively flashy as we all expected after being two years removed from his ACL injury. But by no means has he been bad. Just performing a little under expectations. He's only had one game with 100 rushing yards on the ground, averaging just 55.8 yards per game this season. But he's starting to turn it around, as he's logged 70+ rushing yards in three of his last four games, averaging 76.3 yards per game. Hall is on pace to finish with 948 rushing yards, which is under what he produced on the ground last season as he was recovering from his injury. He's on track for his worst yards per carry (4.0) in his three-year career and has seemed to have lost his breakaway speed with just six breakaway runs for 15+ yards and a 28.7% breakaway percentage (previous low was 40%). Hall has done most of his damage against man/gap coverage, earning a 4.7 yards per carry. Although he runs against zone scheme 61.3% of the time –– and has a 3.5 yards per carry. The Cardinals run zone run scheme 47.9% of the time compared to just 36% against man/gap. However, this Cardinals rush defence as a whole has struggled, allowing the sixth-most rush attempts (24.4) and seventh-most rushing yards (111.3). Another avenue they can be exposed is through the pass game, where they allow 10th most receptions (4.8) and receiving yards to RBs (37.6). Hall is on pace to break his receiving yard record with 614 receiving yards.

Suggested Pick:
40+ Receiving Yards (+165)

WR Davante Adams

I think this might be the game where he can finally make a true depiction of how this Jets receiver role will shake out for the rest of the season. Since getting traded to New York, Adams has taken a little bit to regain that level of chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. They're not on the same page as their days in Green Bay, but that's to be expected after a couple years off and a couple years older. One thing I noticed was Adams' snap count went down as the weeks went on, but Adams left with an injury for a while. What didn't take a dip was his route percentage, as that rose from 85.3% to 100%. Last week was also the first game as a Jet, where he led the team in targets with 11. The Cardinals run the 18th-most man coverage at 25.1%, just below the league average. This is a nice tick in Adams' corner, as he does much against zone coverage, catching 79.3% of his targets compared to 33.3% of his targets against man. Adams runs most of his routes on the right outside (37%) and is projected to line up against Max Melton. Melton has had a fairly impressive rookie year, only having one game where he's allowed more than three receptions in one game and a 69% (nice) catch rate on the season. However, the Cardinals still allow the seventh-most receiving yards (158.6) and the eighth-most receptions (12.6) per game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 5.5 Receptions (-135)

WR Garrett Wilson

Now, Adams' counterpart, Garrett Wilson. He's actually been producing much better with Adams in the lineup. Mostly due to the fact he's not the only one the opposing defence has to worry about now in the passing game. In the three weeks with Adams on the Jets, Wilson averages more receiving yards (88) per game than without (66). He also hasn't seen a dip in his target share, as he has a 30.1% target share with Adams and 30.2% without. Now of the two receivers, Wilson gains a significant advantage in man coverage, as he has a better catch rate against man coverage (62.9%) compared to zone coverage (62.5%). Sure, these numbers don't jump out as massive differences, but considering the majority of the league have a higher catch rate against zone, it's quite impressive. Wilson ranks seventh across the league in PFF grade against man and has a 13.4 yards per reception rate vs. man compared to 10.0 against zone. Adams might get the volume, but Wilson should get the yardage in this matchup, with the Cardinals allowing the ninth most yards after the catch (1064) and Wilson having the seventh most yards after catch (282) among WRs in the NFL.

Suggested Pick:
75+ Receiving Yards (+115)

TE Tyler Conklin

After acquiring Adams, Conklin seemed to get fizzled out of the offence. He was averaging six targets per game for the four weeks before the trade, but after, Conklin has just averaged three targets per game. And that's reflected in his receiving yards, going from 43.8 per game to 15.3. He's also seen his snap count decrease from an average of 43 snaps per game before Adams, to 31.3 after Adams. The one bright spot for Conklin in this matchup is that he has the highest PFF grade against zone coverage of all Jets receiving options, catching 20 of his 26 targets for 222 receiving yards. The Cardinals are middle of the pack against TEs, averaging 46.3 per game. His involvement scares me in what actually might be a decent matchup.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

QB Kyler Murray

Uh oh, it's November. The new Call of Duty is out. But the Cardinals won? Against a good defence? By 20 points? That's shocking. Let's pump the breaks a bit, though; it wasn't all because of Kyler. He had an underwhelming performance, completing 13/20 passes for 154 passing yards and only six rushes on the ground. But the Cardinals didn't need to really use him with the success they found on the ground. That won't be the case this week against the Jets pass defence, who allow the second-fewest passing yards (118.2) to QBs. The Jets run the 11th most man coverage (28.2%) and allow the 10th fewest yards per attempt (6.18) despite running the sixth most (110) man coverage dropbacks. Kyler hasn't faced man coverage much, on only 63 dropbacks this season. But he has not performed well, ranking with the eighth-lowest completion percentage (48.2%) and the third-lowest yards per attempt (4.7). The Jets rank in the middle in terms of pass rush PFF grades, but they managed to work out a contract with Hasson Reddick, who has recorded two sacks, nine hurries and 11 pressures in his two games of the season. If the Jets are to beat the Cardinals fifth-best pass-blocking line, Kyler will need to use his legs to burn the Jets, which he's no stranger to. He has the second-highest yards per carry, scrambling out of man coverage with an 18.7 yards per attempt. The Jets allow the 15th-most rushing yards to QBs, averaging 23.44 yards per game.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 27.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

RB James Conner

James Conner is the model of consistency. He's not the flashiest player, but he always seems to produce. On the season, he's sixth in the league in rushing yards (664) and rush attempts (147). The Jets have always been a scary defence, but against the run, you can expose them. They allow the fifth most rush attempts () and the ninth most rushing yards () per game to RBs. They also run the 10th most man/gap run scheme (41%), allowing 4.68 yards per carry, compared to their 3.56 against zone scheme. Conner sees 71% of his carries against man/gap, where he has a 4.46 yards per carry –– just slightly under his 4.53 yards per carry against zone. We found another edge for Conner in this matchup. Across the league, Conner leads in forced missed tackles with 54 — the second closest behind him is Kenneth Walker... with 31. He leads the next-best running back by 23 missed tackles forced. And this couldn't be a better matchup for Conner as on the other side of the field; the Jets allow the second most missed tackles with 50. This is usually a spot to target a players' longest rush, and it's still a good spot for Conner to reach that as he is second in the NFL in 10+ yard rush attempts; he doesn't have the breakaway speed at 29 years old that he once had. However, it's still a great spot for Conner on the ground. And no, we aren't worried about the finger injury he's dealing with.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
100+ Rushing Yards (+210)

WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

The rook hasn't been bad, but like Breece Hall, there was a certain level of expectation coming into the year that he just hasn't hit yet. He's had two explosive weeks with 130 yards and two TDs in Week 2 and 111 yards and one TD in Week 8. But other than that, he averages just 29.1 receiving yards per game. This matchup against the Jets defence isn't necessarily a positive one for Harrison Jr. either, as they allow the fewest receptions (8.3) and third fewest receiving yards to WRs. However, where we do see an edge, is against Harrison Jr.'s coverage. The Jets run the 11th most man coverage in the league at 28.1%. Harrison's splits against man are incomparable to his splits against zone. Against man, Harrison Jr. has the sixth highest PFF grade with 11 catches on 19 targets for 157 receiving yards. Against zone, he has the 61st highest PFF grade catching just 15 of his 31 targets for 280 yards. Now, Harrison Jr. will likely draw the scary Sauce Gardner matchup. However, it hasn't been as scary this season. In previous seasons, Sauce has had an 88.6 and 87.9 PFF coverage grade, but this season, he's got a 64.4 grade. His completion percentage allowed is similar to last year at 55.2%, but what has gone up is his yards per reception, coming in at 17.4.

Suggested Pick:
Long Reception o20.5 (-115)

TE Trey McBride

Trey McBride has been a relied upon weapon for Kyler this season, leading the team in targets (56), receptions (45) and receiving yards (481). As a TE, he has been on the field for 247 passing snaps, running a route on 230 of them, only pass blocking on four of those snaps. Slot receiver Greg Dortch leads the dominates slot percentage at 663%, but McBride isn't far off at 53%. The slot isn't often targetted against the Jets, receiving a target on 31.4% of the time. The Jets' slot CB is Michael Carter, who's been pretty good, only allowing a 54.2% catch rate and 115 receiving yards on the season. The Jets against TEs as a whole give up the ninth-fewest receiving yards (39.9).

Suggested Pick:
'U' 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Am I crazy for starting to believe in this Jets team? They might actually turn this season around and compete for a playoff spot. The Cardinals are fiesty, and surprisingly currently lead the division, but I think they're due for some regression in a tough-ish matchup.

Best Bet  Jets (-134)
Lean Under 46.5 (-115)
Jets 24 Cardinals 14