MNF Dolphins vs Rams @8:15 EST

QB Tua Tagovailoa

When Tua suffered his concussion, there was legitimate belief he wouldn't play football again. However, five weeks later, he returns, and this Miami Dolphins offence has life again. Life? Yes. Offensive fireworks? Not so much. In the two games since his return, Tua has thrown for 234 and 231 passing yards and three total touchdowns. This is a little disappointing from last years passing yards leader, who nearly threw just over 122 yards shy of 5,000. In just a four-game sample size, Tua has performed better against zone coverage than man, which is perfect for this matchup as the Rams run the sixth most zone coverage (72.9%) across the NFL. Tua is middle for the pack in yards per game, ranking 15th in yards per game (162.5) and 16th in yards per attempt (8.0), but the highest completion percentage (79%) against zone coverage. The Rams defense allows the sixth most yards per game (190.3), the third most yards per attempt (8.9), but the 20th highest completion percentage (68.8%) against zone coverage. They also allow the highest deep throw completion percentage at 13.5%. With a bomber like Tua and two deep threats in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, they should be able to find at least one deep ball in this zone-heavy matchup against the Rams. On passes over 20+ yards, Tua has only completed 5/12 passes but has the second-highest yards per attempt (18.5) in the league.

Suggested Pick:
40+ Longest Reception (+130)

RB Devon Achane

Achane has been pretty decent on the ground this year, running for 420 yards on 93 attempts for a 4.5 yards per carry. His YPC is about average, ranking as the 22nd highest in the league. This Rams defense allows the 9th most rushing yards to RBs, averaging 109.4 per game. They run the majority of their run defense snaps in a man/gap scheme, the fourth highest percentage in the NFL at 46.2%. In this type of coverage, the Rams allowed higher yards per attempt at 4.34 compared to 4.2 against the zone. This bodes well for Achane, as the speedster averages 4.45 yards per attempt against man/gap compared to 4.16 against zone. But where Achane has done most of his damage is through the air. In the four games with Tua under center, he's seen at least seven targets in each game, catching all but one of his 29 targets. In those games, he's recorded 50+ receiving yards in all four, with a receiving TD in three of four. The Rams don't allow too many receptions to RBs at just 3.8 (eighth fewest), but allow the 14th most receiving yards (34.6) per game. In what projects to be a game with offensive fireworks, Achane should be needed through the air.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 40.5 Rec Yds >. Line not out but play up to 40.5

WR Tyreek Hill

We haven't really seen Tyreek Hill explode like we were anticipating since Tua returned. He's been fine, catching six of nine targets for 72 yards against the Cardinals and four of five targets for 80 yards against the Bills, but haven't seen the patented Tyreek Hill bomb down the field for a 50-yard touchdown. With the Rams running the sixth most zone coverage (72.9%), this isn't the greatest matchup for Hill, who has the 156th PFF grade against zone, catching 24 of his 31 targets for 271 yards and an average of 11.3 yards per reception. But where Tyreek has the advantage here is that the Rams are allowing the highest yards per reception (13.01) in zone coverage. While Tyreek is battling a wrist injury and is questionable for this game, he might see a lower number of snaps if he does suit up. But when he is out there, they should utilize him deep. Especially considering he has the 11th-highest air-yard share of all NFL receivers –– and that's including games the Dolphins struggled through Tim Boyle and Skylar Thompson.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 26.5 Longest Reception (-110)

WR Jaylen Waddle

Now, to Jaylen Waddle. He has definitely been disappointing. Sure, his numbers are going to be down with Boyle and Thompson under centre, but even with Tua, he hasn't been great –– trust me, I have him on one of my fantasy teams. He has 310 receiving yards this season and is on pace for 659 yards on the year. His three years before this, he's had 1,000+ receiving yards in every season, peaking at 1,400 in 2022. What has been the reason of this massive fall off? Sure, you can amount that to four games without Tua, but even with Tua, he has 109, 41, 45 and -2 yards... At some point, he's got to play better, right? But is it this the matchup? The Rams allow the 12th most receiving yards (151.9) per game yet allow the sixth-fewest receptions (9.9) to WRs. And with them running the eighth most zone coverage (82.2%), Waddle might continue to struggle as he has a 68% catch rate and 196 receiving yards against the coverage, for just a 56.2 PFF grade –– ranking as the 284th graded WR against zone... At the time of this writing, there's no line for Waddle with Hill's status in question. But, regardless, this isn't a spot to target an already struggling Waddle.

Suggested Pick:
Pass

TE Jonnu Smith

Once Jonnu was traded to the Dolphins this past offseason, I personally, was so excited because I thought we'd finally get the same production as he had when he was the lone TE in Tennessee. He has played in a tandem for the last seven years, playing with Hunter Henry in New England and with Kyle Pitts in Atlanta. While it didn't really start that way, he's started to find his role in this offence as he has 16 receptions on 19 targets for 162 yards over his previous three weeks. As mentioned, the Rams run the sixth most zone coverage (72.9%), which is probably a bright spot for Smith, as he ranks as the second highest PFF graded receiver against zone, catching 21 of 25 targets for 220 yards. The Rams also allow the seventh most receiving yards to TEs, averaging 59.3 yards per game. With Tyreek questionable with his wrist injury, Jonnu might be a sneaky target to produce with Tua back under centre.

Suggeted Pick
'O' 34.5 Rec Yds -115

QB Matthew Stafford

Now, the situation for the Rams and Stafford is completely different. It was Stafford's weapons that were out for a while, but now both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are fully healthy and should get the entire allotment of snaps. In Week 8, Kupp and Nacua split snaps, and in Week 9, Nacua was ejected early for throwing a punch. Now, this Rams passing attack can go to work. In games without both Kupp and Nacua, Stafford averaged 214.8 passing yards with a 64.6% completion percentage and a 2-3 touchdown to interception ratio. But in the two games with them back, Stafford's averaging 288.5 passing yards with a 65.2% completion percentage and a 6-2 touchdown to interception ratio. This Miami defense has been very stout this season, as they allow the fourth-fewest completions (17.8) and passing yards (191.4) per game. They also run the 11th-most-man coverage (28.2%) in the league, which is just fine for Stafford. Stafford averages the ninth most passing yards (71.6), the 19th most yards per attempt (6.6), but the 23rd highest completion percentage (52.9%). While it's true that Stafford has both his weapons back and he should be throwing in a lot, his trend of five straight games might extend to six against a Miami team who's forcing a 0.5 interception per game this season.

Suggested Pick:
1+ INT Interception (-110)

RB Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams has been a carry monster this season. He has the second most carries in the league with 161, averaging 20.1 carries per week. He's turned that heavy volume into the 11th most rushing yards per game (75.3) and the second most rushing TDs (8). However, on a per-carry basis, Williams averages just 3.74 yards, which is the 41st out of 47 running backs that have seen at least 50+ carries this season. However, on the ground is the best area to attack this Miami defence, as they allow the ninth most carries (22.6) and 14th most rushing yards (103.8). And if you're going to score on the Dolphins, you'll have the most success on the ground as they allow the second most rushing TDs in the league, averaging 1.3 per game. Kyren is going to need volume with his 3.74 yards per carry, but luckily, he gets the second-most volume in the entire league.

Suggested Pick:
20+ Rushing Attempts (-140)

WR Cooper Kupp

Outside of him missing a few games this season, the offseason reports that Kupp is the centrepiece of this offence remain true. He's been a target funnel for Stafford, as he has 30 receptions on 43 targets for 265 receiving yards in the three games the two have played with each other –– and that includes his 58% snap percentage in Week 8 against Minnesota. The Dolphins pass defense has been great this season, but is that more of a byproduct of teams not needing to throw against them for the four weeks without a threatening offence? Perhaps, because they allowed 307 passing yards, 72% completion percentage and two passing TDs to Kyler Murray and 235 passing yards, 64% completion percentage and three passing TDs to Josh Allen in the two games since Tua returned. With all that said, the Dolphins allow the fourth-fewest receiving yards (118.5) and receptions (9.6) to WRs per game. They also run the 11th-most-man coverage (28.2%) in the league, which Kupp has caught 13 of 19 of his targets, but for only 49 receiving yards. The Dolphins only allow a 58.2% catch rate while in man (22nd in the league), but the eighth-fewest aDoT. With Kupp averaging just 5.4 yards per reception against man, if they're doing to get him involved in this game, he'll should see a lot of targets, leading to high recpetions.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 6.5 Receptions (-105)

WR Puka Nacua

With all that being said about Kupp, the opposite can be said about Nacua. Now, he doesn't have a massive sample size this season, having missed five games, six if you include the game against the Seahawks where he was ejected early. But regardless, in his one game coming off injury, he caught seven of nine targets for 106 receiving yards. With the Dolphins running 11th-most-man coverage (28.2%) in the league, Nacua has the edge over Kupp. Now, it wouldn't be fair to go off of this years stats, considering he only has three targets against man this season, so let's dive into how Nacua did last season against man. He caught 27 of 44 of his targets, but for 529 yards. That doesn't sound like much, but that actually ranked as the fifth most receiving yards against the coverage across the entire league. In a game where we're expecting a lot of passing, both Kupp and Nacua should be able to both perform well.

Suggested Pick:
'O' 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

TE Colby Parkinson

While we're projecting a big passing game, Parkinson might not be the one involved. Parkinson only has a 12.6% target share on the season, ranking below Kupp and Nacua, despite those two missing games and Parkinson being available in all eight games this season. He has caught 23 of 35 targets this season for 214 yards. Outside of a seven-reception, 13-target game in Week 5 against the Green Bay Packers, Parkinson hasn't surpassed 50 receiving yards in any game this season and averages 19 yards per game with Kupp or Nacua in the lineup –– including a ZERO target game last week. With the Dolphins allowing the 13th fewest (44) receiving yards to TEs despite allowing the fifth most targets (7.6), Parkinson might be a non-factor in this matchup.

Suggested Pick:
'U' 22.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

I don't know whether this is just wishful thinking, but with all these weapons, who're finally healthy on both sides of the ball, in a Prime Time matchup, there should be offensive fireworks, right? Even though both teams' pass defenses are pretty good? But there's a reason this is the fourth-highest over/under on the week. We're betting on an exciting Monday Night Football game, which could turn into an upset.

Best Bet:'O' 47.5 Pts -122
Lean: Dolphins +2.5
Dolphins 30 - Rams 27